In order to be able to observe the demographic behaviour manifestation, both at the national and local level, respectively the case of Bihor county, we focus on the analysis of some representative demographic indicators, namely the demographic potential index, which can be evaluated as a result of the ratio between the number of women of fertile age and their total number, then the marriage rate and the divorce rate, through which the intensity of marriages and divorces is shown at the national and local level.
4.1. Demographic potential
A territory’s demographic potential index can be evaluated by the relationship that is established between the number of women of childbearing age and the total number of the female population. Indirectly, through this indicator, the degree of vitality of a population can be expressed, as well as the real possibilities of its regeneration [
7].
Therefore, the female population evolution and structure, and especially of the female population of childbearing age can influence the fertility phenomenon, generating a certain type of demographic behaviour. There is an interdependence between fertility and birth rate, in the sense that the intensity of fertility influences the birth rate level.
The female population of Romania in the last 30 years is part of the general trend of demographic decline as the total population. Thus, according to the data from 1992 there were 11,733,975 women registered out of a total of 23,126,797 inhabitants (50.7%), in 2021 its number decreased to 11,285,967 women, but with a more obvious weight compared to the male population (51.2%) out of a total of 22,046,917 inhabitants. It is a deficit of the female contingent of -480,008 women, which means a rate of decrease of -3.8% over the entire mentioned period (i.e. 1992-2021).
The female population of childbearing age registered a slight increase in the period 1992-2004, from 5.6 million to 5.9 million, due to the reaching of the female reproductive age born before 1990. After 2004, a downward trend follows, reaching 5,167,438 women of childbearing age in 2021, one of the main causes being female emigration after Romania's accession to the EU (
Figure 1).
Analyzing the demographic potential index at the level of Romania starting from the post-December period, respectively the year 1992 and until the year 2021, a decrease in its values can be observed from 48.1% in 1992 to 45.8% in 2021 (
Figure 1). In this negative trend, a peak (51.3%) can be identified in 2004, against the background of a growing female population of fertile age.
For the recent period of 2021, above-average values were recorded in the counties in the north-east of the country where the value of this index exceeds 47%, (i.e. the counties of Iași with 49.4% and Vaslui with 48.8%). This higher level of the demographic potential index for these counties indicates a higher degree of vitality of the population, a consequence of a traditional demographic behaviour still with higher birth rates than mortality rates (procreative behaviour - children are considered, a support for old age, the phrase is frequently encountered: "to have someone to give me a cup of water in my old age"). The young and especially female segments of the population are quite significant, delaying, to some extent, the demographic aging phenomenon. However, the highest value of this index was recorded in Ilfov county (50.9%) in southern Romania (
Figure 2). The vitality increment in this county occurred against the background of an internal migratory movement, from neighbouring counties more sensitive in terms of economic development, thus contributing to the increase in the number of inhabitants both naturally (i.e. positive natural balance) and migratory.
Values close to the average or below it are registered by the vast majority of counties in the center, west, south and southeast of Romania. The lowest value of the demographic potential index is registered by Teleorman county (40.6%), followed by Vrancea (42.9%). In general, the lower degree of vitality appears in counties with less economic development and especially the young able-bodied population preferred to migrate either to more developed counties or outside the borders. Thus, a demographic deficit occurred, including women with an emphasis on the young segment that should contribute to demographic growth.
At a lower scalar level, for Bihor county, the demographic potential index has a similar evolution to that of Romania. Three distinct evolution intervals can be noted: during 1992-2004 this index is slightly lower than at the national level, during 2004-2017 the difference between the two diminishes and in the interval 2017-2021 the values of this index are approximately identical. At the level of 2021, a value very close to the Romanian average is highlighted (45.9% in Bihor county, compared to 45.8% in Romania), which shows a population average vitality degree (
Figure 1).
In
Figure 3 it can be seen that the highest demographic potential values are found in the urban environment, with values over 47% (Valea lui Mihai with 48.1%, Aleșd with 47.4%, Săcuieni with 47.3%), but also in the area corresponding to the Oradea Metropolitan Area (the communes of Paleu with 53.8%, Sântandrei with 52.4%, Nojorid with 51.6%, Sânmartin with 49.4%, Oșorhei with 48.7%). If the municipality of Oradea is characterized by an average demographic potential index (45.8%), the peri-urban communes that form the metropolitan area have higher above average values which indicates a higher vitality degree. Benefiting from the advantageous geographical position, located in the immediate vicinity of Oradea municipality, these communes play the role of genuine "bedroom" type localities, many residents, especially young people, preferring to settle here, to the detriment of the much more congested municipality of Oradea.
At the opposite end, the lowest population vitality and regeneration degree can be registered in the communes close the mountain area, especially those in the southern and southeastern extremity of Bihor county, with values between 30-40% (i.e. Căpâlna 31.4%, Cărpinet 33.6%, Șoimi 36.2%). They are characterized by a high degree of population aging, including the female population. In this sense, the contingent of the young female population under the age of 15 is less significant than that of the female population over 50 years of age and we are thus witnessing the demographic aging process setting in which, to the extent of its increment, may lead to some of these localities depopulation.
4.2. Familial Stability/Instability
Family stability is an important demographic behaviour feature. This indicator was analyzed through the lens of the ratio between the number of divorces and the number of marriages, which can be expressed in the form of an inversely proportional global indicator. More precisely, it is about the index of family instability, which can highlight a more or less conducive state to demographic growth [
7].
Taking into account the analysis of two emblematic demographic indicators (marriage and divorce rate), it will be possible to particularize and explain certain territorial differentiations of the population demographic behaviour both at the national and regional level, respectively, Bihor county, in our case.
The nuptials study is of particular importance in demographic research, constituting an important birth phenomenon premise. Marriage is a natural act in the evolution of society and normally results in offspring, leading to obvious population growth. At the individual level, the organization of married life, respectively, the formation of a family represents for most young people an important event of personal achievement.
Seven to eight decades ago, Romania was based on a traditionalist cultural-family model in which marriage, family and religion represented the main moral and spiritual values of the population which led to an increase in the number of births and consequently to a demographic growth. Across time, along with the modernization of society and the young generations of the last three to four decades, we witness a series of changes in family behaviour as well, generated by the numerous social, economic, cultural and political transformations [
41]. Thus, family behaviour based on certain traditional rules of family formation and organization, marriage relations, the predominance of the nuclear family, has now been replaced by a diversity of alternative family models, such as postponing marriage until older ages (after the age of 30), cohabitation, celibacy, the desire to have as few children as possible (one-maximum two or maybe none), etc. All this leaves its mark on a regressive demographic behaviour and thus, instead of having a demographic growth, on the contrary we are faced with a population decrease against the background of an increase in the degree of demographic aging.
Statistical data indicate a decrease in the number of marriages in the last 30 years, from 174,593 marriages, registered according to data from 1992 to 107,460 in 2012 and only 81,343 marriages in 2020 [
40]. This lower value in 2020 can be attributed, most likely, to the restrictions imposed as a result of the COVID 19 pandemic which led to the postponement/cancellation of many marriages.
On the downward trend in the number of marriages between 1992-2002, a slight recovery can be noted, especially after 2002 when we witness a gradual increase in their number, until 2007, which marks a maximum reached in the last 30 years, i.e. 189,240 marriages. The cause may be due to a law that offered financial support to couples getting married for the first time [
43].
The same situation can be noted in the case of the nuptiality index, whose values have decreased from 7.6‰ in the 1992s to 5.1‰ in 2012 and 3.7‰ in 2020. In 2021, we are witnessing an important increase in the marriages number and implicitly in the nuptial index, with values even exceeding those recorded 10 years ago (5.2‰). It is probably a “recovery” of those established and lost during the pandemic (2020-2021) (
Figure 4). With this, Romania aligns itself with the European standards regarding the marriage rate (4-5‰).
Going down to the lower scalar level, the marriage rate for Bihor County is the same as the national average (5.68‰), with values slightly above average in both urban (5.75‰) and rural (5.62‰) environments.
Compared to these averages, higher values emerge, even over 8‰ in some municipalities: Balc (8.49‰), Cefa (8.93‰), Ceica (8.30‰) or Ineu (13.48‰), where the value of this index is more than double the average of Bihor county. These high values above the county (5.68‰) and national (5.18‰) averages, where other communes fall apart from those previously mentioned can be attributed to a traditional cultural model that has the family at the center of attention, its stability and progress. As for the commune of Ineu, this value well above the average (13.48‰) could also be justified as a result of the presence of a very large number of Roma population which oriented towards a specific ethnic demographic behaviour, traditions and customs.
Compared to these high values of the nuptiality index, at the level of Bihor county there are also municipalities in which no marriages were registered, at least at the level of 2021, such as for example Gepiu and Săcădat. This situation could generate a certain instability among the population if the phenomenon maintains its continuity.
Divorces. If marriage is a natural act accepted with the consent of both partners (husband and wife) in order to found a family that will further contribute to the evolution of society, resulting in offspring and consequently demographic growth, divorce is manifested by the separation or separation of the two partners, for various well-founded reasons (i.e. misunderstanding, incompatibility of character, infidelity, shortcomings in terms of lifestyle, etc.) and which will have effects from a demographic perspective, translated into family instability and problems related to demographic evolution [
19].
In 2021, 27,024 divorces were registered in Romania either through final law suits or through notary and civil status officers' decisions, the divorce rate being 1.23 divorces per 1000 inhabitants, on an increasing trend compared to the previous year (2020) when 20,785 divorces were registered with a divorce rate of 1.03‰. In fact, 2020 marks the lowest number of divorces and the lowest divorce rate in the last 30 years, the main reason could be the restrictions imposed during the COVID 19 pandemic. Anyway, the divorce rate in Romania is relatively low, compared to other European states [
44], which determines a certain family stability.
The counties with most divorces registered in 2021 were: the capital Bucharest (2600 divorces), followed by Iași, Constanța, Prahova with values of over 1000 divorces.
If we consider the divorce rate, here we can see that Bihor county ranks second after Brașov county, with a rate of 1.51‰ and 1.56‰ respectively, followed by Constanța county with 1.5‰, clearly higher values compared to the national average. In Bihor county, the most numerous divorces were registered at the level of 2021 in the municipality of Oradea (379), followed by the municipalities of Marghita (46) and Salonta (26). Moreover, the urban environment stands out with higher values of both the number of divorces and the divorce rate (1.7‰), compared to the rural environment (1.3‰), the latter being much more conservative, in terms of of family stability.
Family stability is a composite demographic indicator highlighting the ratio between the number of divorces and that of marriages, manifested in a period of time, within a well-defined territory. The higher the value of this indicator, the lower the degree of family stability, in other words we are facing an instability phenomenon and the lower its value, the higher the degree of stability.
In the case of Romania, the family instability rate began to increase in the last three decades, its values increasing from 16.8% in 1992 to 23.7% in 2021, although the highest degree of family instability was recorded in 2011 (33.9%), after which it gradually decreases until now.
In general, family stability is much more evident in the rural area, compared to the urban area and at county level, for the year 2021, the most unstable are: Tulcea (34.3%), Brăila (33.6%), Hunedoara (32.6%), Alba (32%), and those with greater family stability are: Arad (13.4%), Cluj (16.3%), Suceava (16.4%), Ilfov (17, 3%). Of course, these values fluctuate, they vary from one year to the next and the hierarchies change depending on the intensity of some social, political and demographic factors that can influence marriages and divorces in a certain territory.
Figure 5.
Divorces and the divorce rate in Romania during 1992-2021. Source of data [
40].
Figure 5.
Divorces and the divorce rate in Romania during 1992-2021. Source of data [
40].
Figure 6.
The family stability rate in Romania during 1992-2021. Source of data [
40].
Figure 6.
The family stability rate in Romania during 1992-2021. Source of data [
40].
For Bihor county, the lowest value of this indicator was recorded in 2007 (8.4%), thus indicating the highest family stability (the cause being, probably, the impact of that law that offered financial support to couples on their first marriage) while the value of 37.3% from 2011 indicates the highest degree of family instability.
The territorial analysis of family stability for the year 2021 highlights the fact that Bihor county is located in a "balance zone" with the average value of this index of 26.6% being slightly lower compared to the average value of 23.7%, recorded at a national level.
Although Bihor county is characterized by a certain balance regarding family stability, certain territorial differences can still be noted. First of all, a higher family stability can be noted in the rural environment, where the average value in 2021 was 23.8%, compared to the urban environment (29.3%). The highest degree of family instability was in Marghita (61.3%), followed by Valea lui Mihai (40.4%) and Beiuș (38.2%), while the municipality of Oradea with 27.7% had a much more obvious stable family.
Furthermore, the communes in the southern and eastern half overlapping deep rural spaces, show a higher degree of stability compared to the communes closer to the urban spaces, especially those that are part of the metropolitan area.
Figure 7.
Family stability rate in Romania (2021). Source of data: authors' calculations [
40].
Figure 7.
Family stability rate in Romania (2021). Source of data: authors' calculations [
40].
Figure 8.
The family stability rate in Bihor county during 1992-2021. Source of data [
40].
Figure 8.
The family stability rate in Bihor county during 1992-2021. Source of data [
40].
Figure 9.
Family stability rate in Bihor county (2021). Source of data: authors' calculations [
40].
Figure 9.
Family stability rate in Bihor county (2021). Source of data: authors' calculations [
40].