1. Introduction
A holistic theory of investment management in business and economics does not yet exist. However, studying the experience of entrepreneurship in various countries, the first theoretical developments in risk assessment and management help us outline different ways to solve investment problems. Currently, there is enough information present to solve problems associated with possible manifestations of investment risk [
1,
2,
3]. The determination of sufficient and reliable quantitative and qualitative assessments of the effectiveness of investments is a complex and difficult task to perform. In most cases, every investment project has several performance indicators to be considered in the process of selecting the best objects among the set of available ones.
In decision making process, the role of risk assessment becomes incredibly significant. In solving the problems of multi-purpose selection of efficient resource-saving investment decisions from a certain set of possible options, various decision making methods are used (TOPSIS, SAW, COPRAS, AHP, etc.). The information that an investor or project manager (decision maker) possesses when solving problems of preparing a construction investment project and performing construction processes, is distinguished by its structure and level of certainty. When solving most problems, cardinal (quantitative) information is used. However, in practice, there are tasks that require information of the ordinal (qualitative) nature or information of both types simultaneously. The practical tasks of a construction investment project are solved in the presence or absence of information about the significance of performance indicators. The main problem that decision makers face in situations which are difficult to analyze is the presence of information handled by fuzzy sets [
4,
5,
6,
7,
8]. The decision makers hereby deal with situations that might be uncertain and vague in nature. The uncertainty may include imperfect information, insufficient understanding, and undifferentiated alternatives [
9,
10,
11,
12]. In the case of investments, the level of vagueness gets higher due to the difficulty of assessing the impact of unexpected changes in opinions of public relations (PR). The focus is on obtaining subjective judgments from the decision makers which may be uncertain or imperfect, to choose the best option from a set of accessible alternatives. FSAW method is based on the weighted average, also known as weighted linear combination [
13,
14,
15]. The basic principle of SAW method in group decision making is getting a weighted sum of the performance ratings for each alternative under all criteria and opinions of decision makers.
In this paper, FSAW method is considered that enables determining the investment risk by choosing the most effective capital investment option in terms of purchasing cars with the purpose of hiring them to the public. Investment efficiency is carried out in respect to ranking the available alternatives from the most preferred to the least preferred.
The maintenance content introduced in this paper is structured as follows.
Section 2 presents the preliminaries required to understand the main steps of FSAW method in group decision making. In section 3, we consider and solve the problem for capital investment to illustrate the efficiency of the suggested approach, and conclusions are given in section 4.
2. Preliminaries
Definition 1.
If the priority and weight of each expert are emphasized, then the fuzzy weights of experts are appointed consequently to the importance defined by interviewing the final expert. Eventually, the rate of importanceis determined as follows:
where
is the defuzzified value of the fuzzy weight by applying the oriented distance.
Definition 2.
Let ,, be the linguistic weight of subjective criteria -, and objective criteria - provided by experts
. The aggregated fuzzy criteria weight of criteria assessed by group of decision makers is determined in the following form:
where
,
,
,
.
Definition 3.
The fuzzy rating matrix
can be represented as follows:
where
is the aggregated fuzzy rating of alternative
with appropriate criteria
Cj.
Definition 4.
Weighted fuzzy matrix is determined by multiplying the fuzzy rating matrixby the weight vector W, i.e.,
where
.
3. Statement and solution of the problem
The case study in this paper describes the capital investment regarding cars purchase by a small company with the purpose of hiring them to the public. A company spent £100,000 at once on purchasing cars. The cars purchase was held in UK, and assume that four decision makers (denoted as
D1,
D2,
D3, and
D4) were involved in the process of expressing opinions to determine car models which are most commonly used for rental purposes. Finally, the following three alternatives (car models) were chosen by decision makers: Proton Persona, Vauxhall Merit, and Daewoo Lanos, denoted as
A1,
A2, and
A3, respectively. In choosing the above-mentioned alternatives, the following four criteria were taken into consideration by decision makers: equipment quality (
C1), comfort (
C2), car parts and components reliability (
C3), and safety (
C4) [
16].
The following steps of FSAW method are used to rank alternatives, resulting in determination the best (winning) alternative.
Step 1: Create a group of decision makers. Select criteria and determine promising alternate feature investment. A group of decision makers is responsible for determining the most suitable alternative. In this paper, we use four subjective criteria as mentioned above in the case study part.
Step 2: Define the rate of importance of decision makers. The above-mentioned four group decision makers D1, D2, D3, D4 are accountable for evaluating three alternatives A1, A2, A3 under each of the four criteria C1, C2, C3, C4 as well as the significance of criteria. The degrees of importance of decision makers are (), where and ). The group of decision makers is called a homogeneous group if , otherwise, the group of decision makers is called a heterogeneous group. Assume that group of decision makers is homogeneous group: .
Step 3: Input linguistic weighting terms so that decision makers can evaluate the importance of criteria and calculate aggregated fuzzy weights for individual criteria. Linguistic terms and fuzzy numbers for importance weights are represented as follows:
Very low (VL) - (0,0,0,3)
Low (L) - (1,3,3,5)
Medium (M) - (2,5,5,8)
High (H) - (5,7,7,10)
Very high (VH) - (7,10,10,10)
We use linguistic weighting terms and their respective fuzzy numbers to assess the significance weights for each criterion. Using formula (2), we determine the aggregated fuzzy weight for each criterion (
Table 1). For example, aggregated fuzzy weight for
C1 is calculated as follows:
Step 4: Defuzzify the fuzzy weights of individual criteria to determine the normalized weights and to state the weight vector. For defuzzification weights of fuzzy criteria, the oriented distance is determined. The defuzzification of
, denoted as
, is given by
. For different criteria, the calculations will be as follows:
Then the defuzzified value of the normalized weight for criteria
Cj, denoted as
Wj, is calculated in the following form:
where
. The weight vector
is consequently determined. For example, the normalized weight for the first criterion is
. The defuzzified values of the aggregated fuzzy weight and normalized weights are depicted in
Table 2.
Step 5: Apply linguistic terms for decision makers to evaluate fuzzy ratings of alternatives with respect to individual subjective criteria, and then combine them to get aggregated fuzzy rates. Assume that
,
is the linguistic conformity rate appointed to alternative
Ai for subjective criteria
Cj by decision maker
Dt.
is determined as the aggregated fuzzy rating of alternative
Ai for subjective criteria
Cj, such that
which can subsequently be represented and defined as
where
,
,
,
We need to evaluate the fuzzy rates of three alternatives by applying the linguistic terms and their respective fuzzy numbers by considering each subjective criterion and then determine an aggregated fuzzy rate for each alternative-criterion combination by using
(
Table 3).
The linguistic terms for the ratings are represented below:
Very poor (VP) - (0,0,0,20)
Poor (P) - (0,0,20,40)
Slightly poor (SP) - (0,20,20,40)
Very fair (V F) - (0,20,50,70)
Fair (F) - (30,50,50,70)
Slightly fair (SF) - (30,50,80,100)
Slightly good - (SG) (60,80,80,100)
Good (G) - (60,80,100,100)
Very good - (VG) (80,100,100,100)
Step 6: Group decision makers evaluate the fuzzy costs or benefits related with different alternatives against objective criteria and then determine fuzzy rates of alternatives with considering individual objective criteria. The objective criteria are defined in different items and must be transformed into dimensionless indexes to provide reconcilability with the linguistic rates of subjective criteria. The alternatives with the minimum cost or maximum benefit should have the largest rating. Let
,
,
,
be the fuzzy cost or benefit represented with different alternatives
Ai for objective criteria
Cj. The transforming objective criteria are defined as follows:
where
,
represents the transformed fuzzy rating of fuzzy benefit
.
can also be represented by fuzzy number
,
. In addition,
gets larger as
gets larger:
where
,
represents the transformed fuzzy rating of fuzzy cost
.
can also be represented by fuzzy number
,
,
, but
gets smaller as
gets larger. Our criteria are subjective, and we will state the fuzzy matrix based on fuzzy ratings.
Step 7: Define the fuzzy matrix on the base of fuzzy ratings. The fuzzy rating matrix is represented as in formula (3).
Using aggregated ratings, the fuzzy rating matrix is structured as given in
Table 4.
Step 8: Normalize decision matrix by using the formula given below:
Thus, we have the normalized fuzzy decision matrix as depicted in
Table 5.
Step 9: Total fuzzy estimation for individual alternatives is determined by multiplying the fuzzy rating matrix by its respective weight vector . Using formula (4), we get the determined total fuzzy estimation vector by multiplying the fuzzy rating matrix by the corresponding weight vector W.
The weighted fuzzy rating matrix is represented in
Table 6.
Step 10: Determine the defuzzified (crisp) value for each total score by applying defuzzification technique and choose the alternative with the highest total score. Order total fuzzy scores
by the oriented distance to define the best alternative. Define crisp total scores of individual locations using the defuzzification formula represented below:
where
d(
fi) is the crisp value of the total fuzzy score of alternatives
Ai by using the oriented distance. The ordering of the alternatives can then be forerun with the above crisp value of the total scores for individual alternatives.
The fuzzy numbers and defuzzified (crisp) values of total fuzzy scores of alternatives are represented in
Table 7.
The comparison of defuzzified values depicted in
Table 7 can yield the result in the ranking form of alternatives as
A1 >
A3 >
A2. So, the best alternative is determined as
A1.