3.1. Daily COVID-19 Cases in Victoria
In addition to incorporating data from three commercial buildings at a 15-minute interval, we also integrated the daily COVID-19 case data from the state of Victoria to improve the accuracy of our predictions. During COVID-19, the state of Victoria experienced multiple periods of strict lockdowns and restrictions. The timeline of COVID-19 restriction is shown in
Figure 2 [
24], and
Figure 4 shows the trend of daily COVID-19 cases from February 2020 to January 2021. On March 16, 2020, Victoria declared a “state of emergency,” implementing social distancing measures, work-from-home policies, and restrictions on non-essential activities and travel [
25]. Stricter Stage 3 restrictions were introduced on March 31, 2020, which were gradually eased on May 13, 2020, and further relaxed on June 1, 2020.
However, due to a significant rise in COVID-19 cases and breaches in hotel quarantine, Stage 3 restrictions were reintroduced in Metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire. The second lockdown, known as “Vic lockdown 2,” was announced on July 7, 2020, and scheduled to last for six weeks starting from July 8, 2020 [
26]. On August 2, 2020, a state of disaster was declared, and Stage 4 restrictions were implemented in Metropolitan Melbourne for six weeks [
27]. This lockdown was later extended to October 28, 2020.
Following an outbreak at the Holiday Inn, Victoria entered a sudden five-day lockdown, known as “Vic lockdown 3,” from February 13, 2021, to February 17, 2021, reverting to Stage 4 restrictions [
28]. Lockdown number 4 was another seven-day circuit breaker lockdown that was imposed on May 28, 2021, to combat an outbreak, which was later extended to June 10, 2021 [
29]. Victoria then entered a sudden five-day lockdown from July 16, 2021, to July 20, 2021 [
28] after the number of Delta cases reached 18. This lockdown was later extended until July 27, 2021 [
30]. Just nine days after the easing of restrictions from the fifth lockdown, Victoria entered its sixth lockdown to combat a surge in Delta cases. The announcement was made on August 5, and the lockdown initially lasted for seven days. However, it was later extended until September 17, 2021 [
31]. With improvements in the situation, the restrictions were gradually eased, allowing for a return to a semblance of normalcy. However, sporadic outbreaks led to localized lockdowns in different states and territories, with swift and targeted responses to contain the virus. The vaccine rollout gained momentum, offering hope for the future. By late 2021, Australia transitioned from a suppression strategy to living with the virus, adopting a nuanced approach to restrictions and focusing on vaccination rates, setting the stage for post-pandemic recovery.
Figure 2.
Timeline of the Australia COVID-19 pandemic.
Figure 2.
Timeline of the Australia COVID-19 pandemic.
3.2. Impact of COVID-19 on Australian Higher Education
Following the World Health Organization’s declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic on 11 March 2020, various countries have experienced significant economic, social, and political disruptions. The pandemic has particularly affected countries where universities played a crucial role in the export industry, such as Australia, leading to considerable disruptions and financial challenges for many universities. According to the Department of Education, Skills and Employment (DESE), the total number of international students enrolled in Australian courses in 2021 was 572,349, indicating a 17% decrease compared to the same period in 2020 [
32]. The pandemic’s impact on Australian universities is evident through the loss of over 17,000 jobs reported in 2021, as per data from Universities Australia [
33]. Even in 2023, the repercussions of the pandemic persist, with universities in Western Australia still suffering financial losses, evident from their 2022 financial reports, which are considerably lower than their figures from 2021 [
34]. For Swinburne University of Technology, following a warning issued by the vice-chancellor back in June 2020, [
35], the university scrapped more than 100 jobs to address the impacts of COVID-19 on its financial sustainability and declining international student enrollment [
36]. Despite the drastic measures, Swinburne University reported a deficit of
$48.55 million in its annual report for 2020 [
37]. By late 2021, as restrictions were gradually eased in Victoria, Swinburne welcomes international students back to campus [
38], and as stated in the 2021 annual report released in 2022, the university finished 2021 with a modest surplus of
$11.8 million. This financial result was a good foundation for continued recovery after a disrupted two years, as stated by Vice-Chancellor and President, Professor Pascale Quester [
39].
In addition to Energy Consumption in three commercial buildings every 15 minutes, the daily Covid-19 case from its state (i.e.,) Victoria is employed for better forecasting. Australia has faced a series of challenging lockdown measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. On March 16, 2020, Victoria declared a “State of Emergency,” urged the public to practice social distancing, avoid non-essential contacts, work from home, and prohibit non-essential gatherings and travel [
25]. Subsequently, more rigorous measures were introduced on March 31, 2020, when Victoria implemented Stage 3 Restrictions across the state [
28]. Stage 3 Restrictions were gradually eased on May 13, 2020, and further relaxed on June 1, 2020.
Due to a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases and breaches in hotel quarantine, Stage 3 Restrictions were reintroduced in Metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire. The announcement was made on July 7, 2020, and the second lockdown, known as Vic lockdown 2, was scheduled to last for six weeks starting from July 8, 2020, in order to contain the spread [
26]. On August 2, 2020, Victoria declared a State of Disaster, in addition to the existing State of Emergency, and implemented Stage 4 Restrictions in Metropolitan Melbourne for six weeks [
27]. However, this lockdown was extended until October 28, 2020. Following an outbreak at the Holiday Inn involving 13 cases of the UK Strain of COVID, Victoria entered a sudden five-day lockdown from February 13, 2021, to February 17, 2021, reverting to Stage 4 Restrictions [
28]. On May 28, 2021, Victoria imposed another seven-day circuit breaker lockdown to combat the outbreak, reimposing Stage 4 restrictions and stay-at-home orders reminiscent of the previous lockdowns [
29]. The fourth lockdown was extended by seven days and lasted until June 10, 2021. As a result of the Delta variant outbreak in Sydney and the irresponsible actions of interstate delivery drivers from Sydney, Melbourne experienced its own Delta outbreak. When the number of cases in Victoria reached 18, the state entered a sudden five-day lockdown from July 16, 2021, to July 20, 2021 [
28]. This lockdown was later extended until July 27, 2021 [
30]. Just nine days after the easing of restrictions from the fifth lockdown, Victoria entered its sixth lockdown to combat a surge in Delta cases. The announcement was made on August 5, and the lockdown initially lasted for seven days. However, it was later extended until September 17, 2021 [
31].
As the situation improved, restrictions were gradually eased, allowing for a return to a semblance of normalcy. However, sporadic outbreaks led to localized lockdowns in various states and territories, with swift and targeted responses to contain the virus. The vaccine rollout gained momentum, providing hope for the future. By late 2021, Australia began transitioning from a suppression strategy to living with the virus, adopting a more nuanced approach to restrictions, and focusing on vaccination rates, paving the way for a post-pandemic recovery.