Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

An Update on the Link between COVID-19 Vaccination and Mortality

Version 1 : Received: 18 August 2023 / Approved: 21 August 2023 / Online: 21 August 2023 (08:09:55 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 25 August 2023 / Approved: 28 August 2023 / Online: 28 August 2023 (09:48:47 CEST)

How to cite: Aarstad, J. An Update on the Link between COVID-19 Vaccination and Mortality. Preprints 2023, 2023081433. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.1433.v1 Aarstad, J. An Update on the Link between COVID-19 Vaccination and Mortality. Preprints 2023, 2023081433. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202308.1433.v1

Abstract

This study updates previous research showing that 22 all-cause mortality in 31 European countries increased over time the higher the 21 COVID-19 full vaccination uptake. The update illuminates that a one percentage point increase in 21 full vaccination uptake initially decreased all-cause mortality from Jan to Mar 22 by –0.423 percent (95% CI –0.577, –0.270), but the following 14 months, a one percentage point increase in 21 booster vaccination uptake oppositely increased mortality by 0.366 percent (95% CI 0.250, 0.482). The findings indicate that full vaccination initially prevented mortality, but subsequently, booster vaccination, in particular, detrimentally and consistently induced higher mortality. The effects remained robust when controlling for alternative explanations. Studies have argued that heat waves caused mortality in the 22 summer and energy prices caused mortality in the 22-23 winter. However, the update shows that booster vaccination consistently induced higher mortality when neither heat waves nor energy prices were likely explanations.

Keywords

COVID-19; full vaccination; booster vaccination; all-cause mortality; excess mortality

Subject

Public Health and Healthcare, Public, Environmental and Occupational Health

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 24 August 2023
Commenter:
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: I am one of the author
Comment: On p. 10, I write, “Table 4 additionally reveals that the positive associations were statistically significant in all those months except for Sep 23, which was borderline significant.” It should be Sep 22 (instead of Sep 23), and I apologize for the typo.
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