4.1. Climatic Data
The air temperature increase of about 1.08°C recorded in San Benedetto del Tronto harbor station from 2011 to 2022 is confirmed by the data recorded in the nearby harbors of Ancona and Ortona, respectively 1.27°C and 1.22 °C. At the meso-scale level we can observe a strong acceleration of climate forcing. The increase of 0.37°C of the SST in the same period is comparable to the data acquired from satellite observations within the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) project - Mediterranean SST [
56] and with those acquired directly in the Croatian surface waters of the Central Adriatic Sea [
23]. From this study two fundamental points emerged. First, in contrast to trends in the previous 20 years, the period after 2005 would be characterized by constant increases in temperature (about 0.04ºC/year) without cooling phases or breaks. Second, there has been a change in the width of the seasonal cycle, characterized by a sharp increase in the uptrend of SST in summer (about 0.056°C/year), and a slowdown in winter (~0.029°C/ year). The increase in SSTs on the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea, with a total increase exceeding 1°C between 1979 to 2015, was also shown by [
57,
58].
The 2022 MHWs were caused by the high air temperatures recorded at the end of June along the middle and upper Adriatic Italian coast. Indeed, July 2022 was the hottest July in the last 50 years [
59]. These sea heat waves confirm a trend of increasing temperatures in the Mediterranean basin in the last twenty years [
31].
The status of the study area sea waters depends not only on the conditions at the mesoscale (the basin of the Tronto and Aso Rivers) but especially on phenomena in the upper Adriatic basin, with freshwater from the main Italian rivers, the most important of which in terms of water flow are the Po, Adige, and Brenta Rivers. In fact, a dominant sea current runs from north to south along the Italian Adriatic coast, transporting the runoff southward.
The reduced river runoff was a crucial aspect of the Central Adriatic waters during 2022. The largest Italian river, the Po, is the main contributor to the nutrient load in the central-northern Adriatic waters [
26], and its typical summer flow falls below the range of 550 and 700 mc/sec. Interestingly, the slowest flow of 104 mc/sec was recorded exactly in July 2022 [
60]. In 2022 the Po River (
Figure 5) and, simultaneously, the Adige, Piave and Brenta Rivers, which are normally of the nivo-glacial type, showed a typical Mediterranean fluvial regime, with a slight maximum in winter and a slight recovery in the flow rate in May.
Analyzing the data of the above-cited ISPRA Report [
55], it is possible to observe that the flow rates of these rivers and especially the rainfall that occurred in the catchment areas of the Po and the Adige were extremely low even in the first half of the year, due to a long phase of climatic drought from December 2021 to July 2022. Moreover, this phase was also characterized by significant nivometric deficit on the Alpine and Apennine mountains. The negative anomalies related to the first 6 months of the 2021-22 meteorological years were about 55% in the regions of Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta and about 50% in Lombardy and Tridentine Venice (in northern Italy).
During 2022, the Po River reached the absolute minimum of the last 200 years, with a flow of 104 mc/sec on July 24th at the Ferrara-Pontelagoscuro hydrometric station (
Figure 5). Other exceptionally dry periods for the Po River were in June 2022 with a range of 303 mc/sec, in June 2006 with 320 mc/sec, in June 2005 with 444 mc/sec and in June 2003 with 521 mc/sec [
60].
As a consequence of all this, the chlorophyll-a was always much lower than the average of the period from January to August 2022 in the mid-Adriatic Sea (south of outlet of the Po River) [
61].
In addition, examining the hottest summers, 2017 was marked by a slightly lower negative anomaly in winter and spring precipitation than 2022, but the hydrological data for the Po River flows in spring and summer showed values much higher than those of 2022. Regarding the summer 2015, we observed that the first half of the year was characterized by the average rainfall typical of the last thirty years, with moderate snowfall in the central and eastern Alps and alpine river flows significantly higher than in 2022. In 2019, because of winter snowfalls in line with seasonal averages and abundant rainfall in the months of May and April, the Po River flows had no significant minimums, always remaining above 900 m3/sec until the end of the spring and reaching an absolute minimum of 620 m3/sec during the last ten days of July [
60].
4.2. Mussels MME
The death of mussel beds observed in the study area during the summer 2022 is not attributable to phenomena of illegal fishing. First, entire populations died off in little more than two months, which would not be typical results of illegal fishing. Second, illegal mussel harvesting is rare in this area, and in any case, would be easily identified by recognizable holes in the dense mussel beds (
Figure 6), which were observed in this study.
Here the main marine predators of the mussels are
Sparus aurata,
Rapana venosa and
Murix sp. Although ecosystem alterations are attributed to the alien Asian gastropod
R. venosa [
62], predation by this species must be excluded as a possible cause, considering the rapidity with which the mussels totally disappeared (little more than two months), the normal rate at which
R. venosa consumes bivalves in the Adriatic Sea [
57] and the fact that there was no observed increase of the
R. venosa population in the study area before the summer 2022.
Neither polluting events nor harmful algal blooms (HABs) were recorded before and during the summer of 2022 [
63]. Similarly, in this period no pathologies were detected in mussels by farmers and authorities during government mandated analyses.
Our findings align with previous studies demonstrating that HMWs correlate with MMEs in the Mediterranean Sea [
21,
64,
65]. However, there is still limited knowledge about this association in the Adriatic Sea area. In the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, mortality incidence between 20% and 100% was registered after MHWs that lasted from 25 to 50 days [
65]. This finding suggests that the level of mortality associated with MHWs is highly variable, and demonstrates the need to consider further factors in analyzing the relationship between heat stress and MMEs, for example, the ecological memory of the previous exposures to MHWs over the same geographic areas [
66], and potential species or population-related differences [
67,
68]. For instance, benthic organisms colonizing intertidal zones, such as
M. galloprovincialis, are exposed to a variety of harsh marine and terrestrial conditions that could affect their survival [
69,
70]. In fact, [
48] demonstrated that the Mediterranean mussel exposed to high temperatures and a low food load had a 33% survival rate, while those exposed to the same thermal conditions but with a high food load had the significantly better survival rate of 57%.
Previous experimental studies [
45] to measure the death levels of
M. galloprovincialis in response to increasing temperature showed that individuals exposed to 30ºC reached an 80% mortality rate after 10 days of exposure, peaking at 100% on the 12th day. Indeed, [
71] suggests that natural populations of Mediterranean mussels already live in conditions close to their thermal acclimation limits, considering 24–25°C as the upper limit for optimal physiological processes.
Physiological alterations that may result from increased stress include changes in heart rate; [
72] observed that rising temperatures increase the heartbeat frequency until a certain critical temperature, after which the heart rate drops. Therefore, the extreme thermal variations of the climate crisis are challenging the physiological limits of these bivalves [
72].
Another aspect to consider for both natural and farmed mussel populations is the status of the byssus. Byssal threads are composed of extracellular proteinaceous (collagenous) fibers and are synthesized along the mussel's foot starting from a mussel foot protein [
73]. The byssus serves to prevent dislodgement of the bivalve in harsh hydrodynamic conditions, resist mobile competitors, and compete for space [
74]. Environmental conditions like the warming of waters and ocean acidification may alter byssal production processes, causing a reduction in strength, stiffness, and extension [
75,
76]. [
77] further demonstrated that in
Mytilus coruscus, the expression of mussel foot protein genes is affected by elevated temperature, making the byssus susceptible to ocean warming and leading to a risk of dislodgement at high sea temperature (up to 27°C). Similarly, [
78] found that the attachment strength of
M. galloprovincialis was negatively correlated with sea surface temperature. The fact that the few live specimens found in the subtidal zone were partially incorporated into the bryozoan
Schizoporella sp. (
Figure 4), and therefore not anchored to the substrate by byssus, can be seen as a confirmation that the other mussels had been dislodged due to the weakening of the byssus during the heat waves of the summer of 2022. In the same way, the few living specimens in the intertidal zone were observed on the north-facing side of a semi-submerged rock (
Figure 4), where the limited daytime solar radiation and the nocturnal exposure to air cooler than sea water probably favored their survival.
One further consequence of increased ocean warming is decreased marine productivity [
79]. [
52] have suggested that depending on the timing of phytoplankton blooms, marine bivalves may face periods of limited food availability and elevated temperatures, at the same time. These authors reported that with a controlled increase of water temperature, there was a decrease in enzyme kinetics in the Mediterranean mussels in anoxia or normoxia conditions. Interestingly, the authors found that the effects of severe environmental conditions can be limited or countered by sufficient food availability.
River flows and their transportation of nutrients to the sea may have been an important factor in the mussel die off. Our observations show that during the summer of 2022, the study area experienced a hot and dry period which resulted in a low concentration of nutrients released into the sea by rivers. In fact, that year was marked by strong nivometric deficit in winter, low rainfall in spring, and an absolute minimum of river flow in spring and summer. Also 2019, 2017 and especially 2015 were hot years, but only in the first half of 2022 was a much lower organic load (chl-a) observed [
61]. Local mussel farmers recorded a reduction of 30% after the summer of 2022, unlike previous years when no decrease in productivity was observed, in line with [
80]. Although the environmental factors of temperature, depth and currents differ between the coastal zone study area and the three-mile zone where the farms are located, the decrease in productivity in the same period as the observed mussel disappearance is nevertheless a significant fact, especially considering that farmers have recently implemented procedures to reduce damage from heat waves.
However, the consequences of the stressor combination of MHW, CHSO and low nutrient load on mussel farms are extremely different from those observed in natural settlements because of the good farming practices adopted by farmers. They have reduced damage in certain periods and allowed production to resume by choosing to harvest the mussels before the hottest periods and using biodegradable braided knit or cotton nets called socks to counter dislodgement. On the contrary, alterations of natural habitats driven by the climate crisis can be dramatic and require a longer time to restore. There is the negative possibility that natural habitat reassembly may occur with components and structures same from the those of the initial condition.
Ultimately, we hypothesize that the MME of mussels observed in our study area could be due to a vicious cycle of MHW and CHSO thermal stressors, combined with low nutrient availability, which resulted in the increased metabolic demand not being met.