Version 1
: Received: 12 October 2023 / Approved: 12 October 2023 / Online: 12 October 2023 (11:24:24 CEST)
Version 2
: Received: 14 May 2024 / Approved: 14 May 2024 / Online: 15 May 2024 (10:25:09 CEST)
Version 3
: Received: 16 May 2024 / Approved: 16 May 2024 / Online: 17 May 2024 (08:02:19 CEST)
Version 4
: Received: 12 July 2024 / Approved: 15 July 2024 / Online: 15 July 2024 (14:32:58 CEST)
How to cite:
Prakhova, S. Evaluating Performance of the US Surveillance Systems for Monitoring Antimicrobial-Resistant Gonorrhea: An Agent-Based Modelling Study. Preprints2023, 2023100814. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202310.0814.v4
Prakhova, S. Evaluating Performance of the US Surveillance Systems for Monitoring Antimicrobial-Resistant Gonorrhea: An Agent-Based Modelling Study. Preprints 2023, 2023100814. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202310.0814.v4
Prakhova, S. Evaluating Performance of the US Surveillance Systems for Monitoring Antimicrobial-Resistant Gonorrhea: An Agent-Based Modelling Study. Preprints2023, 2023100814. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202310.0814.v4
APA Style
Prakhova, S. (2024). Evaluating Performance of the US Surveillance Systems for Monitoring Antimicrobial-Resistant Gonorrhea: An Agent-Based Modelling Study. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202310.0814.v4
Chicago/Turabian Style
Prakhova, S. 2024 "Evaluating Performance of the US Surveillance Systems for Monitoring Antimicrobial-Resistant Gonorrhea: An Agent-Based Modelling Study" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202310.0814.v4
Abstract
We evaluated performance of two American surveillance systems for monitoring the spread of antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) gonorrhea: the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (GISP) and the enhanced Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (eGISP) which includes the non-urethral isolates in addition to the urethral ones utilized in the original surveillance system. A continuous-time agent-based model of gonorrhea transmission among the US men who have sex with men (MSM) population was developed and used for this purpose. The accuracy of eGISP was nearly 10% higher than the accuracy of GISP (97.8% (95% uncertainty interval: 83.5%, 100%) vs. 87.9% (55%, 100%)). Most of time, GISP detects the moment when the resistance to the current first-line antibiotic reaches the switch threshold recommended by the WHO later than when it was actually reached. This leads to the additional spread of AMR gonorrhea. Informing the treatment guidelines for gonorrhea by eGISP estimates would avert more gonorrhea cases than basing them on the currently used GISP estimates (11.8M (0.5M, 38.5M) vs. 11.3M (0.4M, 42M) gonorrhea cases over 25 years). Finally, we demonstrate that including the extragenital isolates in the surveillance is more important for the accurate monitoring of the spread than increasing the size of the resistant-based surveys. These findings provide a scientific basis which can be used by the policymakers who decide how many GISP and eGISP sites to establish each year.
Computer Science and Mathematics, Mathematical and Computational Biology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
