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Consistent, Inclusive Emissions Accounting Identifies Agriculture as the Leading Cause of Climate Change

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Submitted:

19 November 2024

Posted:

19 November 2024

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Abstract

Recent advances in emissions accounting present a new understanding of climate change drivers. These advances are unconventional but promise a more consistent and inclusive accounting of greenhouse gases. We apply these advances, namely: consistent gross accounting of CO2 sources; linking land use emissions with sectors; using Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) rather than Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to compare emissions; and inclusive accounting of heating and cooling emissions. This approach boosts perceived carbon emissions from deforestation, and finds agriculture, the most extensive land user, to be the leading emissions sector and to have caused 60% (44%-86%) of global surface air temperature (GSAT) change from 1750 to 2020. We also find that fossil fuels are responsible for 23% of warming, a reduced contribution due to masking from cooling co-emissions. We test the validity of this accounting and find it useful for determining sector responsibility for present-day warming and for framing policy response, while recognising the dangers of assigning value to cooling emissions, due to health impacts and future warming.

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Subject: Environmental and Earth Sciences  -   Other
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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