4. Conclusion and future work
This paper used PESTLE analysis as a tool to highlight the different challenges of P2P energy trading development from political (P), economic (E), social (S), technological (T), legal (L) and environmental (E) aspects. Section 2.2 has presented a summary of common challenges and recommendations in P2P energy trading development for helping all stakeholders identify weaknesses to address the difficulties in the successful implementation of P2P energy trading. This analysis can also help policymakers, governments and companies gain a better understanding of the global P2P energy market. According to the PESTLE analysis, the challenges in developing P2P energy trading globally are divided into political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental aspects, none of which can be ignored.
In the political aspect, the main framing of P2P trading is climate change policies and renewable energy targets, together with potential changes in the balances of power, and independence of local community energy, and whether governments or other political actors are in favour of these or not. The main challenges are the established, and ‘hostile’, regulations which were built to support old systems, and old corporate powers. To gain a successful P2P energy system we need to change these unclear and hostile renewable energy regulations, and deal with shifting roles for actors and power relations, complex data ownership, and network security. To prevent tragedies of the commons we need to ensure that P2P users have input into policy, regulation and participation in their own governance.
In the economic aspect, current challenges involve dealing with the instabilities of economic processes and investment, the massive investment required to being the P2P process (with potentially low profits), fairness in cost and profit distribution, energy poverty, and market reliability.
In the social aspect, demographics, trust, social acceptance and social barriers, introducing new concepts and technologies, dealing with free-riding problems if they exist, and possible tragedy of the common effects –which again may stem from existing power relations. Pre-existing and new stakeholder conflict and how to build higher levels of trust in trading seem to be key challenges, as are expanding the groups of people who can or will participate and removing barriers to participation. To prevent these problems, policymakers should consider such solutions as smart incentives, as discussed in section 3.
The challenges of technology are various, including investments and maintenance, network security, system behaviour prediction, degree of decentralisation, network capacity, stability and reliability, and blockchain related challenges. Technologies may also set up barriers to participation, by not being easy to use or geared at particular social learnings. It is advised that designers consider these challenges when technology development projects are defined in P2P energy trading area.
In the legal aspect, legislation uncertainty and legal frameworks in the renewable energy section should be considered. This could lead to legislation to make events have more clarity and fewer unintended consequences. Policymakers should consider legal aspects before implementing P2P energy trading. For example, passing laws and designing clear legal procedures for smart contracts and collective prosumption are needed, with the understanding that unforeseen events are normal, and the legislation is likely to need change as more is learnt about the process.
The two major challenges in the environmental realm are possible inclusion of fossil fuel based distributed generation systems, which could lead to increased pollution, along with added energy generation for the P2P platform and material intensity challenge as materials such as solar panels require recycling at their end of life to reduce pollution. Environmental challenges should be closely studied to consider P2P energy trading implementation effect on long-term environmental goals of the region.
Some suggestions are also provided to address these challenges. From the political perspective, it is suggested that the government, with the participation of users, should formulate clear, extensively considered, stable, and effective policy directions, and create suitable national policy frameworks in accordance with this new mode of operation of future energy markets. These regulations and legislation must be considered experimental and provisional, so they can be easily changed when encountering or generating unexpected problems. Policymakers should make sure that an energy regulatory sandbox is correctly built. Suggestions for the economic aspect include forming an energy-sharing pricing model, studying energy poverty in P2P energy, while building a stable economic environment and a user-friendly renewable energy subsidy policy. The government should also set short-term policy goals to face the potential crisis.
From the social perspective, further research is needed on suggested policies, governing laws, customer views, possible corporate interference, and to discovering the culture and organisation of electricity use. Designing operation modes, managing trading platforms, and studying stakeholder relationships are also crucial. Challenges in technology are various. In the virtual layer, studying related mechanisms will be significant. In the physical layer, studying controlling strategy and considering power losses are two recommendations. We also need to consider the energy consumption of various trading systems themselves. Future research directions in blockchain should consider the desired transparency, scalability, decentralisation, security, and lack of gaming the systems.
Studies in legal and environmental aspects have shown that it is necessary to promote legislative progress and raise public awareness about environmental protection, and the kinds of contract and mutual obligation required. Given the growing social and business interests, with many ongoing trials, this paper highlights the urgency of increased studies as well as agile planning and regulations.
For future studies in this area, we recommend a system thinking study on P2P energy trading. Different aspects of P2P energy trading have effects on each other. For example, a change in legal or economic area leads to changes in technology area that will have environmental results with some time lag. These results can change the society’s perspective toward P2P energy trading. Hence, it is necessary to study effects of the PESTLE aspects upon each other to prevent any conflict or new challenges raised by change in an aspect without considering that change’s effect on other aspects.