In this section, we present models for calculating entropy and ergodicity defect in the presence of chromathripsis as well as the rate of mutation of the BCL2 gene responsible for cancer cells’ apoptosis.
2.1. Model for genome chaos
In physics, chaos is defined as a property of a complex system whose behavior is unpredictable due to its great sensitivity to small changes in initial conditions. Usually, such systems are dynamically unstable, and small fluctuations grow exponentially with time. While the concept of genome chaos is widely used, there is no common definition of this term. A process of complex, rapid genome re-organization, caused by chromosomal instability and resulting in the formation of chaotic, unpredictable genomes, is usually implied by genome chaos [
10,
11,
12].
We apply the concepts of ergodicity and entropy to genome chaos. First, we assume that the mutation rate μ(θ), defined as the probability of mutation per nucleotide per division depends on a quantitative mutagenicity parameter, θ, characterizing the pressure from the environment increasing the probability of mutations.
During chromothripsis, up to thousands of chromosomal rearrangements can occur in a single event (
Figure 1a). Thus, if the original composition of an affected chromosome is
, where
Gn is the
n-th fragment of the chromosome, after shattering and consequent stitching, the sequence of genes can rearrange in a random manner as
. Some genomic information can be lost during the event. According to estimates, DNA breaks repaired by mitotic gene conversion are accompanied by surprisingly high mutation rates which are more than 1000-fold higher than spontaneous mutations [
19]. The rate of spontaneous mutations in somatic human cells is about
nucleotides per cell per division [
20]. In cancer cells without chromothripsis such rate may be on the order of
[
21].
The exact mechanisms of shattering and stitching remain obscure; however, there is growing evidence that the decrease of protein P53, which plays a central role in maintaining genome stability, correlates with chromothripsis. The corresponding gene, TP53, is the most frequently mutated gene in human cancer [
22]. The appearance of chromosomal bridges and micronuclei in cells serves a visual manifestation of chromothripsis (
Figure 1b). As far as the frequency of chromothripsis in cancer cells, in a recent survey of 4,934 cancers, Zack et al. [
23] suggested that chromothripsis occurred in 5% of all samples, with frequencies ranging from 0% in head and neck squamous carcinoma to a maximum of 16% in glioblastoma.
We now will distinguish three stages of the behavior of the system. At the
first stage, no chromothripsis occurs. Following Rocco et al. [
18], the cell state is viewed as a point in a multidimensional configuration space, characterized by gene expression profiles,
, where the epigenetic landscape is a hypersurface formed by inverse probability for a cell to be at a certain state. The epigenetic landscape is analogous to the energy landscape of a Hamiltonian system,
. A phenotype is defined as the basin of attraction of each stable state (local minimum) on the landscape. The average barrier height between the stable states, ∆h, characterizes the probability of switching between the states (in other words, of a mutation) and can be estimated as
. The average time the system spends at a certain phenotype’s basin of attraction,
t0, is larger than the observation time, for that reason, the system is essentially non-ergodic [
18]. Essentially, the cells are in homeostasis.
In the
second stage, massive rearrangements occur due to chromothripsis. Rearrangement of the fragments results in the mixing, which can be estimated quantitatively using Shannon entropy [
24]
For
N chromosomal segments participating in the rearrangement, the number of rearrangement variants is
P(
N)=
N! A simple statistical physics analogy can be a phase transition caused by increasing temperature above the melting point. The stability in a thermodynamic system at constant temperature and pressure is characterized by the Gibbs free energy defined as the difference between the enthalpic and entropic terms. The positive sign of the Gibbs energy change prohibits the spontaneous reaction
where the enthalpic term, ∆h, characterizes the resistance to mutation. Hence,
. Note that the purpose of Eq. 2 is to establish an analogy with the thermodynamics of phase transitions rather than to determine the exact value of the mutation rate at which the chromothripsis occurs. This is because the quantitative characteristics would depend on the definition of the variable θ.
During chromothripsis, essential mixing of the chromosomal segments occurs. The degree of ergodicity can be estimated by calculating the ergodicity defect. For ideal mixing, the process is expected to be ergodic and the state of the cancer cells is not homeostatic.
At this stage, the mutation rate exceeds the critical threshold,
, is above the critical threshold
, so that mutations are too intense for cells to survive. As far as the biochemical mechanism, the gene that is responsible for apoptosis in cancer cells is BCL2 [
25]. It is therefore hypothesized that when the critical number of mutations in cancer cells is achieved, apoptosis is induced.
Several measures of deviation from the ergodic behavior have been introduced in the literature to account for the non-ergodic behavior. Földes-Papp and Baumann [
5] (2011) suggested decoupling the effects of the molecular crowding and the temporal heterogeneity by presenting the power exponent, which controls the dynamics of the interaction network, as a product of these two factors. Scott et al. [
26] suggested the ergodicity defect
D, defined at different scales (on a map T) with respect to a basis of functions
f given by an integral of the square of space and time averages
where
and
are the time and space averages.