Key findings
Climate change has a remarkable impact on the dissemination and incidence of many infectious diseases.
It increases microbial resistance and may increase the prevalence the arthropods-borne diseases with mild effect on fungal infections, also, the low to middle income countries may be affected more than other countries from these virulent pathogens.
What it is known & What it is new
Global warming and climate change has a potential impact on the transmission and increasing incidence of infectious diseases.
Bacterial and viral infections get increased with more virulence due to climate changes and may affect the general public health state.
This review adds more knowledge about the most recent incidence rates of infectious diseases in Africa and Europe due to climate change.
What is the implication
It shed the light into the importance of studying this change and its impact trying to combat these infectious diseases' transmission and spread.
Introduction
Global warming is commonly defined as the phenomenon characterized by the progressive rise in the average temperature of the Earth. The frequency of disasters such as hurricanes, droughts, and floods are increasing as the Earth's temperature rises. Global warming is a significant factor in climate change that is linked to human activities1. It has a substantial impact on health and indirectly contributes to the proliferation of infectious diseases2. The early spring temperatures observed in 2018 appear to have played a role in the early and widespread outbreak of West Nile virus in Europe. This particular pathogen is expected to expand its range beyond its current distribution due to the effects of climate change3-4. Additionally, infectious diseases, also known as transmissible diseases, are characterized by the transmission of pathogenic biological agents to a host organism, resulting in clinically evident illness. In specific instances, infectious diseases have the potential to exhibit asymptomatic characteristics throughout a significant portion, or even the entirety, of their progression within each individual host5.
Temperature and precipitation are significant environmental factors that play a crucial role in the spread of infectious diseases. This includes water-borne diseases such as cholera, vector-transmitted infections like malaria, parasitic helminths, fungal diseases associated with global amphibian declines, and marine diseases that impact corals, sea stars, fisheries, and aquaculture6. Hence, global warming exerts an influence on infectious diseases through its effects on pathogens, hosts, and transmission mechanisms. It has been extrapolated the potential impact of global warming on diseases that necessitate intensive care. This extrapolation is based on existing data pertaining to the alteration in the transmission of infectious diseases7. The impact of a warming climate on the global emergence of infectious diseases is significant, as it influences both the geographical distribution and host range of zoonotic pathogens8. Therefore, the objective of this scoping review is to examine the primary strategies employed in the reviewed literature regarding the influence of global warming on the spread and occurrence of diverse infectious diseases.
Methods
The literature review assists in covering and summarizing several studies on the impact of global warming impact on spread of infectious diseases in world. The data search was done using the Web of Science, Science Direct, EBSCO, MEDLINE, BIOMED CENTRAL, CINAHL, Google Scholar, and Scopus, and only the English language was used. And this search was done using the PRISMA extension for scoping reviews. The research question used to guide the review was;
"What the impact of global warming on spread of infectious diseases?”
Search Terms
The relevant terms used to search were identified, and then the searches were conducted based on the research question. The specific search terms for the database search are listed in the following:
Global Warming; Heat; Heating; Global heat; Climate change of heat; climate change; Climate change infection; Impact; effect; Spread; Incidence; rate; Infectious Diseases; Infection; Parasites; Viruses; Bacteria; strategies; peer reviewed;
They were used in the search engines were identified through a series of brainstorming and searching a thesaurus, the database, and preexisting knowledge on the topic. The thesaurus helped in finding and using the control terms to ensure accurate and high-level coherency among the terms. Furthermore, the thesaurus helped control the narrowing and broadening of the search. If there were no controlled terms, the search strategy entailed using free text searching either alone or with the controlled terms. In the free search, several broader terms were used and acted as a guide for the accuracy of the search to obtain relevant results. Such terms included Impacts of global warming, Viral infections, Bacterial infections, Fungal infections, Parasitic infections and spread of infectious diseases.
In the controlled terms, there was a systematic search using different electronic databases from the Science Direct, EBSCO, PUBMED, BIOMED CENTRAL, CINAHL, and Google Scholar, which were filtered to include only after January 2019. The search was restricted to the English language. Following the studies' selection, some references in the studies were also selected. Subsequently, the results were screened based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria described below. These criteria allowed a broad search to be conducted while keeping the scope as precise as possible. Given that the pandemic occurred recently, the year of publication was not restricted. However, the rationale was used to exclude papers in these spread hits to maintain the chain of evidence.
Inclusion Criteria
Peer-reviewed article
Articles related to search terms
Published after January 2019
No restrictions on the area of study
English language
Researchers relied on the databases using the Boolean operators (AND, OR, NOT) which included: 980 citations; 220 from Science Direct, 78 from EBSCO, 174 from PubMed, 139 from BIOMED CENTRAL, 123 from CINAHL, and 246 from Google Scholar.
By screening the results, papers other than English and duplicates, and other exclusion criteria were removed and revealed that 800 of these retrieved studies had been neglected duo to not coherent titles, with filter of date 88 studies were excluded. 42 papers retained for eligibility observation. 23 excluded as not explicit refers to strategies, and 2 records additionally identified via full text records. A total of 19 articles were reviewed for relevance after being narrowed down to those with titles that most closely resembled the original search term, as showing in the following PRISMA chart.
Figure 1.
PRISMA tool chart used and designed in this review.
Figure 1.
PRISMA tool chart used and designed in this review.
The citation titles and abstracts were independently screened, and potentially relevant articles were fully reviewed after excluding articles that proved irrelevant. An electronic data charting form was developed to determine the most appropriate variables to extract from the articles, and the charting form was continuously updated. Some of the data that were extracted included the general data (the names of the author, country of study, and year of publication), the methodological data (study design, to all sample
. characteristics of the participants, intervention group, control group, outcome measures
. and follow-up) as a study matrix designated as shown in the following table (
Table 1).
Results
The review included 19 records. A thematic analysis of the content of the selected records yielded six major themes across global warming impact on spread of infectious diseases. A total of 19 studies were found: 2 meta-analysis, 8 literature review, 1 narrative review, 1 statistical dynamics and epidemiological modeling methods, 2 quantitative experimental study, 3 retrospective, 1 cross-sectional study, and 1 systematic review. The geographical areas of these studies were as follows: 4 studies world widely, 5 in Europe, 3 in Africa, 2 in the United States, 2 in China, and 1 study each in Newzeland, Malysia, Iran). The distribution of these studies was then mapped according to the data extraction table 1.
The study's findings were presented in terms of themes obtained through the analysis, comparison, and contrast of the information from the studies as follows:
Theme 1: Global warming impact on bacterial infection
There are 3 studies have assessed global warming impact on bacterial infection9-10-11. Reverter et al. (2020)11 showed that the aquaculture Multi-Antibiotic Resistance (MAR) indices exhibit correlations with MAR indices observed among human clinical bacteria, as well as with temperature and the climate vulnerability of countries. Authors have observed that warmer temperatures lead to increased mortality rates in infected aquatic animals. Countries that are highly susceptible to climate change are likely to experience significant risks associated with marine aquaculture resources (MAR). These risks have the potential to adversely affect human health, extending beyond the aquaculture sector. This underscores the pressing need for immediate action also, he argued that it is necessary to implement sustainable strategies in order to reduce antibiotic usage and enhance system resilience.
Yu et al. (2021)9 found that warming led to an increase in the complexity and connectivity of the bacteria community network. However, the variation within the community was only partially explained by soil physicochemical properties and plant biomass, indicating that bacterial interactions may play a significant role in driving the bacterial community network. Warming has led to changes in the structure of bacterial communities and an increase in bacterial decomposition of organic matter. These changes have the potential to create significant feedback effects on the loss of soil carbon and the emissions of greenhouse gases. Additional research is needed to investigate the impact of global warming on soil bacterial community structure and ecosystem function, as well as Climate change is projected to result in elevated temperatures in various global regions. Uncertainty surrounds humidity predictions, but certain regions will experience higher temperatures and humidity, resulting in increased infection pressure of Bacterial Panicle Blight (BPB) in global rice production10.
Theme 2: Global warming impact on viral and parasitic infection
Different studies have mentioned global warming impact on viral and parasitic infection, researchers investigated 4 studies12-13-14-15. Combe et al. (2023)12 identified a dearth of data regarding the correlation between temperature and mortality in fish and shellfish. Similar to bacteria, their findings emphasize the significance of understanding the connections between temperature and virus-related mortality. This study demonstrates that a modest temperature rise of 1 °C may result in a 3-6% increase in mortalities. This could have notable implications for food safety in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) engaged in aquaculture. Researchers have observed that the ecological transition is already occurring, and limiting global warming to below 2°C by the end of the twenty-first century will not necessarily decrease the sharing of viruses in the future. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating viral surveillance and discovery initiatives with biodiversity surveys that monitor species' range shifts, particularly in tropical regions. These areas are known for having a high number of zoonotic diseases and are currently undergoing rapid warming13.
Parasites that are not eliminated by higher temperatures may experience an increase in intensity and pathologies. This can be attributed to certain physiological factors, such as the tendency of temperature to enhance the metabolism of ectotherms and induce oxygen stress on hosts. Parasites are integral to ecological communities, and it is important to consider the indirect and secondary effects resulting from climate-induced changes in host-parasite interactions. These effects may not be apparent when studying these interactions in isolation14. This study investigates the bioclimatic preferences of parasites and their potential response to future climate changes, focusing on broad climate parameters. Specifically, it examines how parasite life cycles, seasonality, and population dynamics may be affected. Regions of New Zealand experiencing warmer and wetter conditions due to climate change are projected to have increased occurrences of flystrike and cattle tick prevalence. Additionally, there may be an increase in biting louse populations, but a decrease in chorioptic mange and flea infestations. Dry and warm regions may have fewer ectoparasites overall, except for flea infestations15.
Theme 3: Global warming impact on fungal infection
Only 2 studies stated Global warming impact on fungal infection2-16. Only a small number of fungal species are pathogenic to humans, as most mammals have a high level of resistance to invasive fungal diseases. In addition to immunological responses, humans possess a "thermal restriction zone" which serves as a protective mechanism against infections. Human activities may be causing climate changes that are leading to the gradual reduction of the thermal restriction zone. This zone refers to the difference between the basal temperature of humans and the temperature of their surroundings. The emergence of Candida auris may have been influenced by global warming due to its higher thermotolerance compared to other yeasts. The impact of climatic oscillations on wetlands may have enhanced the suitability of this habitat for non-pathogenic C. auris strains by providing thermal and salinity tolerance, although the exact ecological niche has not been determined. The acquisition of virulence factors in C. auris may be attributed to the transfer of virulence genes from other pathogenic Candida species to C. auris strains that have not been previously exposed to them. Another possible explanation is the occurrence of genetic mutations induced by global warming and UV radiation2. The study's model predicts that there will be an expansion of Cryptococcus gattii VGI distribution from the Mediterranean basin coasts to inland sub-continental regions in the coming decade. Based on these predictions, there is an anticipated rise in cryptococcosis cases caused by C. gattii VGI in the coming decade. It is essential to continuously monitor the epidemiology of this fungal pathogen as a critical strategy for detecting future outbreaks16.
Theme 4: Global warming impact on arthropods and vector transmission
There are 5 studies have mentioned the global warming impact on arthropods and vector transmission17-18-19-20-21. The geographical range of mosquitoes and mosquitoes borne diseases (MBD) are therefore profoundly altered by global warming. The present scenario is highly concerning, and it will get considerably more problematic as GW worsens. Thus, health systems in developing nations would face significant challenges in health policy and public health measures to contain the development of MBD. This means that African governments need to step up their efforts to stop MBD21, in order to prevent further spread of the disease. Arboviral transmission is successful only when the vector and the virus are exposed to ideal circumstances. Global warming in particular is anticipated to increase the outer boundaries of arboviral transmission. Dengue transmission in the UK summer by 2100 is possible according to model tests using the most severe climatic scenarios17.
Insects will flourish in a warmer environment, likely generating negative direct (feeding, sucking, etc.) and indirect (vectors of infections, feeding wounds establishing gateways for various pathogens, passive transmission of inoculum across maize plants) impacts. There has to be constant fine-tuning of breeding programs for disease resistance. Significant progress is needed in breeding for resistance to insect pests18. Different arthropod groups (Coleoptera, Diplopoda, and Collembola) were studied for their basal heat tolerance and its plasticity. These species have different evolutionary histories but have been subjected to similar selection pressures due to long-term exposure to the same constant environmental conditions. This research disproves the idea that ambient factors control the heat tolerance of underground animals. Pallarés et al. (2019)19 suggested that animals that spend their lives underground may respond differently to climate change, even if they do so in identical environments.
Under global warming, the research area is characterized by diverse changes, including regional variations in the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and the parasite ratio (PR). This study was conducted in Africa with the goal of learning more about the impacts of global warming on the spread of malaria throughout Cameroon. The rate of change in PR and EIR is more pronounced over time as radiative forcing levels rise20.
Theme 5: Global warming impact on incidence of infectious diseases
There are 5 studies have investigated global warming impact on incidence of infectious diseases22-23-24-8-25. The chosen climate-sensitive communicable illnesses had the strongest correlations with precipitation and temperature. Dengue, malaria, and cholera cases were predicted to rise in a climate change scenario simulation because of regional climatic reactions. The occurrence of communicable illnesses that are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate are affected by both precipitation and temperature22. Lian et al. (2023)24 found that if there weren't any heat waves this summer, almost 69.3 percent of COVID-19 cases may have been prevented. There is no coincidence that the epidemic and heatwave are occurring at the same time. Future control initiatives should take into account climate-based malaria early warning systems and maintain the declining trend in malaria incidence, as shown by this research23. Also, there is a statistically significant inverse correlation between the average outdoor temperature and the occurrence of brucellosis. Dadar's discovery paves the way for more research into the ways in which environmental factors and climatic shifts affect the regional distributions and seasonal/annual cycle of this zoonotic virus across the globe8. The lowest temperature was shown to have a strong relationship with the incidence of dengue, leptospirosis, food poisoning, TB, and hand, foot, and mouth infections, according to data analysis from the research by Alhoot et al. (2019)25, Malaria transmission seems to be strongly associated with heavy rains. Leptospirosis is strongly associated with high temperatures.
Discussion
In this scoping review, it was found many variations, similarities, and differences between the selected studies regarding the effect of global warming on the spread and dissemination of the infectious diseases; There is no doubt that the incidence of infectious diseases as a result of climate change must be discussed and reported with a potential need to combat this disaster, It ended with Lian et al. (2023) and Baharom et al. (2021)22-24 who reported a high percentage of infectious diseases' incidence in Europe and USA, This statistical data can predict the incidence of other infectious diseases in the whole world when they reported that Furthermore, amidst the ongoing pandemic, it is imperative to prioritize the issue of climate change, as it is currently giving rise to a difficult new epoch for the dissemination of infectious diseases. This phenomenon has increased outbreaks' prevalence and severity, presenting substantial and abrupt hazards. The alteration of environmental conditions is amplifying the propensity for pathogen transmission and the potential for viral transmission across different species, which is also correlated with the COVID-19 pandemic., as well as, Nyawanda et al. (2023), Dada et al. (2020), and Alhoot et al. (2019)23-8-25, they discussed the incidence of the infectious diseases and their relationship to the climate change and high temperature in both Asia and Europe countries, to report that The multiplication of mosquito vectors and subsequent transmission of dengue viruses to humans is facilitated by the elevation of ambient temperature and increased precipitation, as these conditions create optimal circumstances.
It was noted that Khezzani et al. (2022), Pallarés et al. (2019), Heath (2021), and Miedaner and Juroszek (2021)21-19-15-18, who reported that the main correlation between global warming and arthropods-borne disorders is essential to be reported and studied when they discussed the effect of global warming in different countries of Europe besides Africa where there is a high rate of arthropods-borne diseases, many countries are significantly susceptible to the impacts of global warming.. The passage of time plays a significant role in mitigating the imminent hazards associated with global warming on marine biodiversity dynamics. Considering this matter, it would be advantageous to proactively address the impending climate scenario by adequately equipping human communities through various available methods and approaches, besides the temperature change and its impacts on increasing the mosquitos and other arthropods transmission and dissemination.
Bacterial infection has the greatest and most abundant type of infection, which must be controlled because of its widespread and variable pathogens that may cause the infectious stages and may affect the infection control strategy in the countries, besides microbial resistance, which may be occurred due to several factors which the increasing in temperature is one of this factors as reported by Reverter et al. (2020)11 as It is likely that nations that are particularly susceptible to climate change will encounter elevated risks of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), which will have adverse effects on public health beyond the aquaculture industry, besides, Yu et al. (2021) and Shew et al. (2019)9-10 reported that The potential economic devastation caused by bacterial infection in rice could escalate significantly in the coming decades, alongside the global warming phenomenon. The present investigation has revealed that heightened occurrences of bacterial infection can result in significant economic, environmental, and food security implications. This underscores the importance of prioritizing rice breeding endeavors to enhance resistance against bacterial pathogens.
In addition, both Combe et al. (2023), Whitehorn and Yacoub (2019)12-16 reported the relationship between viral infection and climate change with its effect on increasing viral infections among people, specifically when it was reported that The significance of characterizing the associations between mortality related to viruses and temperature. It has been demonstrated that a modest temperature rises of 1 ◦C has the potential to result in a 3-6% increase in mortalities which is particularly noteworthy in the context of aquaculture in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), as it could have a substantial effect on food safety. This study aims to increase awareness regarding the pressing need to develop strategies to ensure aquaculture's sustainability in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) as a viable source of protein for rapidly growing populations. These strategies include temperature mitigation, stock selection, and health management.
Besides the parasitic infections, which had been discussed by Byers (2020)14, when it was discussed that the impact of climate change on parasites and their hosts is expected to exhibit variability, influenced by the species' tolerances and potentially even the genotypes at play. Nevertheless, the growing focus on observation and experimentation regarding this matter has facilitated the understanding of potential patterns in anticipated reactions and the identification of valuable research methodologies. A potentially effective method for studying the impact of rising temperatures on host-parasite systems is the development of thermal performance curves (TPCs) for both the host and parasite. In the case of parasites that do not exceed their optimal thermal conditions, as determined by thermal performance curves (TPCs), it is plausible to anticipate heightened intensity and pathology. Parasites' accelerated feeding and increased intensity on their hosts, except for marine mammals and seabirds, in response to elevated temperatures, primarily because these parasites and their hosts are ectothermic.
There is an essential role of climate not only in increasing the pathogen's ability to grow and multiply but also in its effect on increasing their transmission; two main studies, Mbouna et al. (2022) and Carlson et al. (2022)20-13, discussed the mode of transmission and its rates as a resultant from climate change, as there exists a significant correlation between precipitation, temperature, and the transmission of pathogens. The relationship between temperature and the evolution of certain infectious diseases has been well-established in academic literature. Additionally, the influence of seasonality on various metrics that control disease transmission has been emphasized. The analysis of future climate scenarios demonstrates that alterations in temperature and rainfall have a regulating impact on variations in malaria transmission. However, it is important to consider additional factors, such as population mobility and effective intervention strategies against infectious diseases, as they will likely enhance outcomes.
Conclusion
The phenomenon of climate change has a significant influence on the spread and occurrence of numerous infectious diseases. It has been observed to contribute to the development of microbial resistance and potentially elevate the prevalence of arthropod-borne diseases. However, its impact on fungal infections appears to be less pronounced. Furthermore, low to middle income countries may experience a greater susceptibility to these harmful pathogens compared to other nations. Consequently, this study emphasizes the necessity for future research in the realm of climate change and infectious diseases to encompass a comprehensive analysis of disease transmission, encompassing both direct and indirect modes of transmission.
Author Contributions
(I) Conception and design: AAM, NGFA, and SM conceived the idea and designed the review. (II) Administrative support: AA and AMA, HDAE, ASFA, AA, and OAA. (III) Provision of study materials or patients: ANS, MA, MBA, and ASM, MRMA and SOA. (IV) Collection and assembly of data: MA and MRMA. (V) Data analysis and interpretation: ANS and SOA. (VI) Manuscript writing: All authors. (VII) Final approval of manuscript: All authors.
Acknowledgments
This work is accomplished with an honor and grants for Faculty of pharmacy, Ain Shams University and Faculty of Nursing, Minia University, for providing all data and search engines to complete this review.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors have no conflict of interest in this research to declare.
Ethical Statement
The authors are accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolve.
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