2.1. Considerations
Knowledge can be applied, like exploring for oil; it can also be used to discover reality indirectly, like black holes. Knowledge means no surprise from its predictions, like the lack of entropy generated by the prediction of sunrise tomorrow morning [
4].
Kuhn argues in
The Essential Tension [
5] that Popper may have been correct that psychoanalysis was not a science, but that there were better reasons than the ones he provided (see also, Thornton; in [
6]; see also Ioannidis, in [
7]). Popper argued for testable propositions. In contrast, Kuhn believed that it was essential for a combination of cooperation and competition to produce an “essential tension" between opposing viewpoints to seek the truth under uncertainty.
At this point in our exploration, we hypothesize that knowledge is tested or determined by debating the various issues it raises. Assuming that there exists only two sides to a debate, and that the two sides hold complementary viewpoints, these viewpoints are orthogonal; i.e., as
goes to 90 degrees, then:
We offer as evidence its absence: Most social concepts fail in reality (e.g., reviewed below: self-esteem; implicit racism; ego depletion). The failure of social concepts to correspond to predicted results in reality could be accounted for by complementarity. If behavior in reality accompanies embodied cognition (viz., interdependence), if exploratory concepts are discovered by convergence processes; and, but more importantly, if concepts are disembodied, the results should be a lack of correlation between a disembodied concept and actual, embodied behavior in reality.
Debate implies then that tension is required to not only search for the truth, to test the truth once it is believed to have been found, but to explore what the truth once found may mean; e.g., in politics, truth may be found with a compromise that defuses the emotions on opposing sides of an issue. While compromise is not “truth," especially in the physical sciences, yet it may bound the truth (discussed in more detail below).
Applying knowledge. For example, under uncertainty, Suslick and Schiozer [
8] provide an overview of the petroleum industry as a classic case of decision-making seeking to capture a specific knowledge about reality. Following the work of Allais, a 1988 Noble economist, they consider the economics of finding oil in the Algerian Sahara. They addressed the risks of exploration using probability theory along with modeling the different stages of exploration. Allais developed principles for efficient pricing and resource allocation for large monopolistic enterprises. From Suslick and Schiozer [
8],
“Many complex decision problems in petroleum exploration and production involve multiple conflicting objectives. … An effective way to express uncertainty is to formulate a range of values, with confidence levels assigned to numbers comprising the range. … Asset managers in the oil and gas industry are looking to new techniques such as portfolio management to determine the optimum diversified portfolio that will increase company value and reduce risk."
Suslick and Schiozer [
8] also considered Markowitz’s contribution to knowledge by balancing risk across a portfolio (see [
9]):
“A portfolio is said to be efficient if no other portfolio has more value while having less or equal risk, and if no other portfolio has less risk while having equal or greater value. … a portfolio can be worth more or less than the sum of its component projects and there is not one best portfolio, but a family of optimal portfolios that achieve a balance between risk and value."
The authors [
8] also reviewed the limitations of risk analysis that limit its use as a practical decision aid to understand reality, especially when applied in the search for oil. They reviewed the strengths and weaknesses of risk analysis by concluding that:
1. Risk analyses offer the way to handle very complex decisions characterized by multiple objectives under uncertainty across the different stages of seeking to find petroleum (i.e., the identification, extraction and production of oil).
2. Risk analyses deal with complex tradeoffs and the preferences of different stakeholders when exploring reality.
3. After finding oil, risk analyses provide a systematic and comprehensive way for listing and reviewing the relevant factors in the extraction and production of oil.
In these searches to obtain decisions based on reality, probability theory considers risks found in analyzing possibilities across the sets of events when making decisions ([
10], pp. 14-15). We have decomposed risk into perceptions and determinations. However, unlike risk determinations, risk perceptions can lead to tragedy; e.g., in 2021 [
11], the U.S. Department of Defense fired a drone at a perceived terrorist, instead killing 10 civilians, most were children [
2]. One of the several recommendations made by DoD, with which we agree, was to use red teams to challenge a decision about risk before action is enacted.
Portfolios of the available choices are important. By generalizing the research of Markowitz [
9], Chen and colleagues [
12], used swarm intelligence algorithms to address portfolio optimization. Their swarm intelligence algorithm was mainly inspired and developed by observing swarms in nature, and included self-organization, self-adaptation, and self-learning from biological populations (e.g., birds, elephants, wolves).
Their research [
12] showed that swarm intelligence algorithms can be efficient and can produce satisfactory solutions in solving portfolio optimization (PO) problems. However, from [
12], )
“how to achieve the maximum benefit and minimum risk of dynamic multi-period portfolio is a worthy study problem in the future. … How to choose the preference function will be also a valuable research topic. … [and how] to evaluate the effectiveness of the established PO model."
Occam’s Razor and Einstein’s interpretation of it are covered by simplicity or parsimony [
13], but beyond parsimony, there is little to be agreed upon. Considering Einstein’s struggle to construct a mathematical theory of gravity following his special theory of relativity [
14], he began with an equivalence principle between acceleration and gravity, and after several failed attempts, personal struggles with family and anti-semitism, all the while coping with concepts of covariance, fearing Hilbert’s success before his, he finally achieved success by predicting the perihelion of Mercury with a new concept of spacetime for reality. Today, Einstein’s theory “has been very successful for more than a century" [
15].
“[T]he grand aim of all science … is to cover the greatest possible number of empirical facts by logical deductions from the smallest possible number of hypotheses or axioms" (quoting Einstein, in [
16], p. 173).
From Robinson [
17], citing Einstein’s 1933 lecture:
“It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience."
Reviewed by Faraoni and Giusti [
15], Einstein’s theory has survived all tests to date, predicting the precession of Mercury’s orbit from the influence of gravitational waves. But in addition to the unsolved paradox with black holes, his theory fails to account theoretically for the increasingly rapid expansion of the cosmos and the discrepancies with the Hubble constant. Hubble’s constant is used as a scale for age and distance across the universe; with the cosmic microwave background, it has been used to measure the beginnings of the universe; but in the late universe, supernovae as standard candles are used. That these two metrics to establish the Hubble constant disagree has created “the essential tension" for another paradox.
However, new tests with falling anti-matter support Einstein’s theory [
18]. According to Einstein’s equivalence principle, all objects should fall at the same rate in a gravitational field regardless of what they are made of, now found to be true for matter and antimatter.
We distinguish a heuristic from Einstein’s algorithm for his general theory of relativity. First, we define a heuristic as a thumb rule, short-cut, or approximation to a crude solution in a narrow domain where the approximation is satisfactory (e.g., a pinch of salt), and unlikely to be generalized. Second, for our purposes, we define an algorithm as a compressed set of rules or instructions that can make predictions about outcomes in reality. Both are forms of knowledge, the heurestic more useful in common situations, the algorithm more useful in applying knowledge to advance science. For the algorithm, we separate the structure of an algorithm from its function. More importantly, in this proposal, machines with AI should be able to participate by observing the order-disorder that arises with each step.
1. As the pieces of an algorithm fit together like the pieces of a puzzle, its entropy drops. We have proposed that an entropy drop occurs when the structure of a well-functioning team fits together [
1].
2. As the pieces of the algorithm begin to fit together, the unfinished structure of the incomplete algorithm is re-oriented, shifting the strategy in constructing the rest of the algorithm.
3. As the algorithm is finalized, and its predictions established, it forms the framework of major research programs that seek to explore and to determine its strengths and weaknesses.
4. As it becomes established as knowledge, it must be able to withstand the widest, most critical and aggressive tests often represented by debates, which serve to process information about the opposing viewpoints expressed during debate. If it is determined to be knowledge, it will serve to be productive in its ability to predict and to generalize to other concepts and findings. Seeking reality. Embodied thinking is intuitive. Newton’s apple. Einstein’s trains and elevators. The knowledge that follows these intuitions is rational, like Newton’s three laws of motion. But when the limits of that knowledge is reached, the search to replace it can create “the essential tension" until new knowledge is found, like the theory of black holes.
In Einstein’s general theory of relativity, static models of black holes had zero entropy. However, Bekenstein (2008; in [
19]) reported that,
“Black hole entropy is a concept with geometric root but with many physical consequences. … a black hole can be said to hide information. In ordinary physics entropy is a measure of missing information."
Accounting for quantum effects indicates that information cannot be destroyed [
19], but while a black hole’s entropy is proportional to the area of a black hole, it evaporates over time (via Hawking radiation), indicating the destruction of information, as yet an unresolved paradox.