1. Introduction
Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the global climate pose a major challenge to the global environment [
1]. According to 2022 emission estimates from the Global Atmospheric Research Emissions Database (EDGAR 7th Edition), global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.4% compared to 2021, reaching 53.8 Gt CO
2 equivalent. These figures are 2.3% higher than the 52.6 Gt CO
2 equivalent emissions recorded in 2019 [
2]. To address climate change, China has set a solemn goal of "peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060". Promoting carbon neutrality is the key to sustainable development, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the fundamental way to achieve carbon neutrality. Modern agriculture meets people's most basic material needs. At the same time, a large number of chemical production materials and livestock and poultry manure, mainly CH
4 from ruminant gastrointestinal fermentation and CH
4 and N
2O from livestock and poultry manure treatment, make livestock production a major source of carbon emissions. According to the survey data in 'Huge Shadows of Livestock: Environmental Issues and Choices', the CO
2 equivalent of carbon emissions from cattle, sheep, horses, camels, pigs and poultry alone account for 18% of global anthropogenic carbon emissions each year [
3]. The Chinese government attaches great importance to building an ecological civilisation and is committed to reducing carbon emissions in animal husbandry and developing green and low-carbon sustainable animal husbandry. In June 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Implementation Plan for Emission Reduction and Carbon Sequestration in Agriculture and Rural Areas" to clearly focus on six tasks, such as energy conservation and emission reduction in the plant industry, and emission reduction and carbon sequestration in animal husbandry [
4]. The scheme requires the promotion of precision feeding technology, the promotion of variety improvement, the improvement of livestock and poultry yield per unit area and feed reward, and the reduction of ruminant enteric methane emission intensity. Improve the level of resource utilisation of livestock and poultry manure and reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and poultry manure management. Therefore, the low-carbon emission reduction of animal husbandry is very important to achieve carbon neutrality, and the high-quality green and low-carbon development of animal husbandry is imperative.
At present, the related fields of greenhouse gas emissions from animal husbandry mainly focus on the measurement, spatial and temporal characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions from animal husbandry. On the one hand, the measurement of carbon emissions from animal husbandry is of great importance for clarifying the sources, emissions and structural characteristics of carbon emissions from animal husbandry. Zhuang et al. and Gao et al. used the IPCC emission factor method to measure the non-CO
2 greenhouse gas emissions of five types of livestock and poultry in China's animal husbandry, and the emissions of CH
4 and N
2O from the enteric fermentation and manure management of dairy cows and beef cattle [
5,
6]. Rehman A et al. used the emission factor method to study agricultural GHG emissions in Pakistan and found that GHG emissions from animal husbandry accounted for more than half of the total agricultural GHG emissions [
7]. LCA is a method, based on the IPCC emission factor method, used to assess the direct or indirect environmental impacts of all outputs and inputs associated with activities, services, processes or products throughout their life cycle [
8]. This method extends the calculation chain of greenhouse gas emissions and makes the calculation of greenhouse gas emissions more comprehensive. Weiss F used the LCA method to study the greenhouse gas emissions of livestock production in 27 countries of the European Union [
9]. Xu et al. used LCA and the spatial Durbin model to study the impact of industrial agglomeration on carbon emissions from dairy farming [
10]. Using the LCA method, Yao et al. revealed the development characteristics of carbon emissions from livestock production in China in terms of both time and space [
11]. Xue et al. used LCA method to analyse and evaluate the carbon emission reduction stock of biogas-based circular economy model and traditional linear model in large-scale pig farms in Liaoning Province [
12]. On the other hand, the academic community has extensively discussed the influencing factors of GHG emissions from animal husbandry. Dai et al. believe that the adjustment of agricultural structure, the increase of wealth and the growth of population are important factors for the increase of carbon emissions [
13]. Cai et al. recognised that environmental and economic factors in the provinces have contributed to the decline in the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions from China's animal husbandry [
14]. Hao et al. believe that the industrial structure, population and income level of farmers play an important role in promoting carbon emissions from livestock production [
15].
In the context of the development of green and low-carbon animal husbandry, we found that most scholars' research mainly focused on the national level and less on provincial carbon emissions by combing the relevant literature. However, as a major animal husbandry province in China, Shandong Province ranks at the top of the country all year round. According to 2023 data, the total output of meat, eggs and milk in Shandong Province is 16.856 million tonnes, an increase of 6.62% year on year, and the total output value is 297.368 billion yuan. With the rapid development of animal husbandry, all kinds of wastes generated in the process of livestock and poultry breeding have rapidly become the main source of agricultural pollution. The environmental pollution problems have become increasingly prominent, resulting in a large amount of carbon emissions, which seriously affects the realisation of the goal of carbon neutrality. Therefore, it is of great importance to understand the spatial distribution and dynamic development of carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Shandong Province for the rational formulation of policies to reduce carbon emissions from animal husbandry. However, there are relatively few studies on the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution of livestock carbon emissions. Among them, Shi et al. used the kernel density estimation method to investigate the regional differences in animal husbandry carbon emissions and the dynamic evolution of their distribution [
16]. However, there are some problems, such as insufficient research on the internal dynamics of regional livestock carbon emission distribution and strong subjectivity. Based on this, this paper uses the panel data of 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province of China from 2001 to 2022, and uses the life cycle assessment method to measure the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in each prefecture-level city. Based on the spatial analysis of visualization technology and the kernel density estimation method in non-parametric method, the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution of animal husbandry carbon emissions in Shandong Province are systematically investigated, which can more rigorously and intuitively reflect the internal dynamics of regional animal husbandry carbon emission distribution.
4. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
4.1. Conclusion
By measuring the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Shandong Province from 2001 to 2022, and combining spatial and non-parametric estimation methods, this paper examines the spatial differentiation and dynamic evolution of carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Shandong Province, and draws the following conclusions:
(1) The carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Shandong Province are distributed in a 'dispersion-agglomeration' mode. From 2001 to 2022, the areas with more carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Shandong Province were mainly concentrated in the peninsula and Luxi. From the perspective of the changing trend, the carbon emission of animal husbandry in Shandong Province has gradually gathered from Weifang and other prefecture-level cities in the peninsula region to Linyi City in the central region of Shandong Province.
(2) The carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry in Shandong Province is declining. From 2001 to 2022, the carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry in Shandong showed different degrees of decline, but there were great differences among cities. Among them, the carbon emission intensity in western and central Shandong was significantly higher than that in the peninsula, and the carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry in 16 cities in Shandong showed a more obvious ladder-like distribution of 'high in the west and low in the east'.
(3) Through the analysis of the dynamic evolution of nuclear density, we observed that the regional differences in carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Shandong Province were expanding, showing the characteristics of polarization ; the differences between the cities in the peninsula area have gradually narrowed from the expansion, and the phenomenon of polarization has weakened ; the carbon emission gap between cities in the central region of Shandong has expanded significantly, showing a pattern of gradual evolution from multi-level differentiation to two-level differentiation. The carbon emissions of animal husbandry in the western region of Shandong gradually showed a trend of polarization.
4.2. Policy Proposal
Based on the above conclusions, this paper proposes the following policy recommendations to reduce the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Shandong Province and help the country achieve the "double carbon" goal. First, clearly understand the differences in animal husbandry carbon emissions in Shandong Province and reduce animal husbandry carbon emissions. Cities with low carbon emissions should play a leading role in reducing carbon emissions, explore efficient development models, establish low-carbon breeding demonstration areas, and promote the learning and imitation of livestock and poultry breeding in surrounding cities through talent exchange, experience learning, and low-carbon breeding technology promotion. Promote the improvement of the level of livestock and poultry breeding, achieve low pollution, emission reduction, and achieve green and sustainable development of animal husbandry. Second, governments at all levels should pay more attention to the sources of differences, formulate policies in line with the actual situation in the region to promote the reduction of animal husbandry carbon emissions, strengthen animal husbandry financial support policies, promote the utilization of livestock and poultry manure and other resources, and strive to create a fair and reasonable policy environment for animal husbandry carbon emission reduction. Third, according to local conditions to promote animal husbandry carbon emission reduction The cities of Shandong Province should combine local resource endowment conditions, give full play to their comparative advantages, actively adjust the industrial structure of animal husbandry, explore the key factors affecting animal husbandry carbon emissions, and maximize animal husbandry carbon emission reduction, while achieving stable development of animal husbandry.
In this paper, the calculation of carbon emissions is restricted by the availability of data. For example, the calculation of the average cost of coal and electricity generated by cattle breeding leads to a certain deviation in the calculation results. Future research can use more accurate methods, such as using more data or conducting specific analysis based on prefecture-level city data, to obtain more accurate results; in addition, this paper does not consider other factors that cause the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Shandong Province. These factors need to be more fully considered and improved in the next study.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization, Formal analysis, and Writing – review & editing, C.W.; Conceptualization, Methodology, Validation, Writing – original draft, and Manuscript preparation, Y.S.; Software development, Data curation, and Writing – review & editing, Y.H. and J.L.; Writing – review & editing, Y.Q. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.