In this study, to investigate the similarities and differences between financial markets and turbulent dynamics, we have modeled the dynamics of financial markets and physical systems respectively. Specifically, time series data for the Standard & Poor's 500 index was sourced from Bloomberg terminals, while the time series data of the velocity field for a fully developed three-dimensional turbulent fluid was obtained through Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. Utilizing these datasets, our aim is to reveal the commonalities and disparities in the statistical physical properties of these two systems and to perform relevant analyses within the realm of econophysics.
Table 1.
Empirical procedure steps.
Step |
Program execution content |
1. Time series |
Input time series |
2. Calculate differences |
|
3standard deviation |
length(diffs)) |
4. Calculate Power spectrum |
power |
5. Main program |
Generate Y, V series Get Z, U differences Compute σ_Z, σ_U Power spectra of Y, V |
6. Plotting |
Plot σ_Z vs. σ_U Compare Y̅, V̅ power spectra |
5.6. Difference Analysis
Figure 8.
Power Spectrum Difference Diagram.
Figure 8.
Power Spectrum Difference Diagram.
By simulating time series for financial markets and fluid dynamics and comparing their power spectra, this paper is able to observe differences in their frequency responses. In the figure presented, the solid line represents the power spectrum of the financial market time series, while the dashed line corresponds to the power spectrum of the simulated fluid dynamics time series.
Power spectral analysis is a method for quantifying the distribution of energy across various frequencies in a signal or time series. It can be observed from the figure that the power spectra of the two time series are similar in the low-frequency region, suggesting that both may exhibit similar dynamic behaviors over long-term trends. However, as the frequency increases, the power spectra begin to display noticeable differences, which may reflect dissimilarities in behavior between financial market data and fluid dynamics data on shorter time scales.
Specifically, the power spectrum of the financial market time series may show peaks at certain frequencies, reflecting periodic behaviors in the market data or the influence of specific events. In contrast, the simulated fluid dynamics time series exhibits a more uniform distribution of energy across a wider range of frequencies, consistent with the turbulent behavior of fluids where flows at various scales contribute to the overall behavior.
This analysis reveals differences in the statistical physical properties between financial market models and real fluid dynamics models, particularly in their time series dynamic behaviors and frequency responses. Although both financial markets and fluid dynamics can be described using similar mathematical frameworks, they exhibit fundamental differences in their specific behavioral characteristics. This underscores the complexity and nuance that must be considered when applying physical theories to explain economic phenomena.
Figure 9.
Fluctuation chart of price and Bessel curvature.
Figure 9.
Fluctuation chart of price and Bessel curvature.
In physics, Bézier curves are utilized to simulate and analyze the pathlines of turbulent flow fields. These curves are recognized for their mathematical smoothness and the flexibility of their control points adjustment, offering an efficient means of approximating complex turbulent structures. As such, they provide valuable support in numerical simulations and graphical visualizations for understanding and predicting turbulent behavior. In the analysis conducted here, this paper employs a strategy based on constructed financial Bézier curves to assess the changes in market volatility over time. Specifically, we will focus on the relationship between the time series (X-axis), price fluctuations (Y-axis), and the curvature of the Bézier curve (Z-axis).
Table 2.
Empirical Celler of Bessel Curve.
Table 2.
Empirical Celler of Bessel Curve.
Step |
Program execution content |
1. Generate Bessel curve |
Find price inflections. Build Bézier curve for trends |
2. Monitor price fluctuations |
Above Bézier: check for turbulence. Below: same check. |
3. Check turbulence |
Compute MA_short. Compute MA_long. Large MA_short/MA_long deviation signals turbulence. |
4. Execute transactions |
Above Bézier: sell. Below Bézier: buy. |
5 Main programs |
Get financial price data. Create Bézier curve from inflections. Monitor price vs. Bézier. On touch, if turbulent, trade. |
6 Record Results |
Log trades for review and strategy refinement. |
Time Series (X-axis) Analysis: The time series represents the temporal dimension of a dataset of stock prices. Within this dimension, we can observe the evolution of price fluctuations and the curvature of the Bézier curve over time. Typically, time series analysis reveals long-term trends, cyclical patterns, and potential seasonal factors in price behavior. During the analysis, the trends in the time series can reflect changes in market sentiment, as well as potential impacts from economic cycles and macroeconomic events.
Price Fluctuation (Y-axis) Analysis: The price dimension reflects the market value of a stock at specific time points. The magnitude and direction of price fluctuations provide essential information about market activity, investor sentiment, and stock liquidity. Significant price volatility may indicate substantial divergence in market participants' views on the value of a stock or the market's reaction to sudden events. Conversely, stable price movements generally imply market consensus or a lack of significant news events.
Bézier Curve Curvature (Z-axis) Analysis: Within this analytical framework, the curvature of the Bézier curve is characterized by the width of Bollinger Bands, quantifying the range of price volatility. This property of the Bézier curve is used here as an indicator to measure the intensity of price volatility. High curvature of the Bézier curve generally corresponds with increased market volatility, which may be due to inconsistent interpretations of market information by investors or responses to changes in macroeconomic indicators. On the other hand, a lower curvature of the Bézier curve, with a reduced width of Bollinger Bands, reflects decreased market volatility, which may indicate more stable market information and consistent investor expectations, leading to more limited price movements.
Integrating the analyses of these three dimensions provides a dynamic view of how market volatility changes over time. By observing these changes, investors and analysts can make more informed judgments about market trends and risk levels. For instance, during periods of high Bézier curve curvature, the market may exhibit instability, prompting investors to adopt more cautious investment strategies to mitigate potential risks from market fluctuations. Conversely, in periods of low curvature, the market's stability may be higher, and investors might seek to increase investments to capture potential gains. In this way, the Bézier curve curvature becomes a powerful tool in helping us understand and predict dynamic market changes.
In essence, by observing the time series (X-axis), we can track the trends and patterns in price (Y-axis) as they evolve over time. These patterns may result from the market's assimilation of new information or its reaction to macroeconomic events. For example, if the market anticipates a significant policy change, this may be reflected in the time series as a notable rise or fall in stock prices.
On the Y-axis, a detailed analysis of price fluctuations reveals the immediate changes in market supply and demand dynamics. Periods of high price volatility may indicate a strong divergence between buyers and sellers in the market, or the market's rapid response to breaking news. For investors, understanding these price fluctuations is crucial, as they can provide immediate signals about market sentiment and trends.
The curvature of the Bézier curve on the Z-axis provides us with a quantitative measure of market volatility. When the curvature of the Bézier curve increases, it indicates an expansion of the Bollinger Bands width, which is typically accompanied by increased market volatility. During these phases, prices may exhibit dramatic fluctuations, reflecting the possibility of rapidly changing market information or differing expectations and interpretations of the future among market participants. For risk-averse investors, this may be a signal to reduce holdings or seek hedging strategies.
Conversely, when the curvature of the Bézier curve decreases, indicating a narrowing of the Bollinger Bands width, this usually suggests a reduction in market volatility. During these phases, price movements may be more stable, and investor expectations may align more closely. This could signify a period of relatively high market confidence, where investors might consider expanding their investments to capture gains.
In summary, by integrating time, price, and Bézier curve curvature into a three-dimensional view, we gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics. Such a multidimensional analytical approach provides a complex yet comprehensive perspective for investment decisions, helping investors to identify cyclical patterns in the market, predict changes in volatility, and thereby make more informed investment choices.