3. Effects of Climate Change on Fishery Products
Climate is one of the most important abiotic factors that shapes the distribution of plants and animals on Earth through a combination of direct and indirect effects [
1]. In organisms whose body temperature varies according to the environmental temperature (poikilotherms) such as fishes, the temperature may shape population and community structures through its influence on the survival, reproduction and patterns of resource use of single individuals [
74]. Indirect effects are exhibited for example through modification in water circulation which can influence larval dispersal and recruitment [
75].
Fish has been used as indicators of environmental changes for a long time [
76,
77]. Their high dispersal ability, ecological differentiation, temperature sensitivity, typically large size, and ease of identification make them excellent indicators of the effects of climate change. Additionally, climate change is known to negatively impact the biology, fertility, growth, and biodiversity of aquatic, terrestrial, and aerial animals [
78]. Furthermore, Pörtner and Peck suggested that climate change has an effect on individual organisms during all life stages hence affecting populations of a species, communities and the functioning of the ecosystem [
1,
79].
More specifically, local athmospherical conditions significantly influence hydrological properties of Adriatic Sea. For instance, Ferrarese et al. [
80] pointed out that the Adriatic Sea circulation and temperature patterns change abruptly at onset and growth of strong winds [
1]. Indeed, highest seasonal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Mediterranean has been documented for the area of North Adriatic [
81]. In addition, weakening of thermohaline circulation in the Adriatic Sea due to climate change can potentially affect deep pelagic and benthic organisms especially biodiversity in niches, such as those found in the nearby Jabuka Pit [
82]. In recent decades, many publications have also acknowledged the impact of climate change on hydrological and biological processes in the Adriatic Sea [
83,
84,
85].
Potential responses to climate warming include a wide array of taxa seeking cooler environments by shifting toward poles and higher latitudes, higher global extinction rates and reorganization of local communities resulting from local extinctions and expansion of thermophilic species [
86]. There are few theoretical consequences that can be experienced by the mobile fauna (especially fishes) of the Adriatic Sea [
1]. It can happen through several mechanisms, like the extension of the northern limit of species distributions which usually affects thermophillic species (northward expansion) and the reduction of distribution of species of cold water affinity with subsequent northward shift of center of population distribution, while the relative species are seeking refuge in northern areas of the Adriatic Sea [
1]. Beside the phenomenon of shift in population distribution (usually northward) by native Mediterranean species, which is usually termed “meridionalization”, a process of “tropicalization” (arrival of alien species of tropical origin) also plays an important role in carving of the faunal assemblages of the Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea [
87].
Numerous northward shift records came from the Adriatic Sea [
88,
89], where even juveniles of some previously rare or absent, thermophilic fishes have been recently registered. The occurrence or increase of certain thermophilic species in the Adriatic Sea is usually attributed to rising water temperatures, but distinguishing them from other potential causes is a very complex task.
However, it is very likely that most of the possible causes are essentially related to rising average sea temperatures. In the last 25 years numerous thermophilous fish species have been recorded for the first time in the Adriatic Sea and their presence might be related to climate change [
89,
90], while climate change effects are responsible for facilitating the migration of lessepsian fish species. Heavy fishing increases the success of non-commercial species by reducing competition from commercial species for the same resources, thereby allowing previously rare species to form larger and more resilient populations [
85]. Secondly, since Adriatic Sea is not isolated from the rest of the Mediterranean, changes occurring in other areas have consequences for the Adriatic ecosystem [
84]; [
85]. This is especially important for the presence of lessepsian fish species whose arrival in the Adriatic is not only facilitated by climate change but also by the presence of already established populations in the southern regions which probably act as recruitment areas for subsequent northward spreading [
91], while the presence of lessepsian species in the Adriatic Sea is probably facilitated if not a consequence of periodic influx of water originating from the eastern Mediterranean Sea (BiOS) [
1]
.
Beside arrival and spreading of non-native species there are also certain changes affecting populations of native fishes. This is evident through either increased abundances, northward extension or decline in occurrence of some species. It is very likely that some cold water species will be negatively affected by the water warming while thermophilious species will benefit from it. This issue is of particular importance for the Adriatic Sea since the impacts of the global warming are particularly critical in semi-enclosed seas (Pozdnyakov et al., 2007). There are already indications that some cold-water fish species, particularly European sprat (
Sprattus sprattus) or cold-water species whiting (
Merlangius merlangus) are in decline in the last 30 years [
16,
92].
Among the most interesting examples are increases in abundances, possibly due to distributional shift, of species like yellow barracuda (
Sphyraena viridensis), flying gurnard (
Dactylopterus volitans), ornate wrasse (
Thallasoma pavo), grey triggerfish (Balistes carolinensis), white trevally (
Pseudocaranx dentex), Mediterranean parrotfish (
Sparisoma cretense) and fangtooth moray (
Enchelycore anatine) [
89].
Species of the Serranidae family, previously dominant in the southern Adriatic Sea, have also experienced a northward migration. This is especially important for white grouper (
Epinephelus aeneus) and mottled grouper (
Mycteroperca robra). After first being recorded in the southern Adriatic Sea in 1999 and 2000, respectively, these groupers have undergone northward expansion and are now occasionally reported from these waters, southern and central Adriatic Sea [
89,
93].
4. Future Prospective and Conclusions
Climate induced changes are expected to affect services provided by the ecosystem including important fishery sectors, like aquaculture and fisheries [
87,
94]. The impact of climate change on the marine fisheries sector is particularly complex, due to the fact that the effects can be both positive and negative in economic terms [
94,
95]. The effects of climate change on fishing communities will be determined by their exposure to change, the vulnerability of essential species and ecosystems to climate change, and fishers’ capacity to adapt to new situations [
96].
Fisheries should be influenced by both “meridionalization” and “tropicalization” of catch, i.e., a rise in warmer-water species in comparison to colder-water ones, because variations in distribution are predicted to alter their availability to fisheries (Cheung et al., 2013). Landings may change in relation to global warming and this may induce changes in the intensity and spatial distribution of fishing effort [
97], like it has been shown for European Lobster (
Homarus gammarus) in the eastern Adriatic Sea. A fishery’s sensitivity to climate is determined by previously caused changes in fish stocks, which impact species composition and consequently abundance in commercial captures [
85]. It means that climate change will have more or less marked effects on all the fishery sectors, even if it is not yet clear whether the diversity of the Mediterranean fleet in terms of catches and vessels will contribute to the adaptive capacity of these regions [
98].
Small pelagic fish are important ecological indicators of the state of the ecosystem due to their sensitivity to climate forcing that influences their distribution and abundance [
99], which suggest that purse-seine fisheries could be particularly vulnerable to climate change [
84]. Additionally, fishing activities can lead to a reduction in habitat complexity and changes in the structure of the benthic community, which can in turn affect fish abundance and distribution of important commercial fishes, such as hake (
Merluccius merluccius), mackerel (
Scomber scombrus), and blue whiting (
Micromesistius poutassou) [
100].
A potential displacement of native species by alien species is expectable according to Dragičević et al. [
1] due to the fact that alien species are usually more successful in competition for space, shelter and food. Displacement of native mullets (
Mullus sp.) by the alien goatfishes (Upeneus spp.) (Bianchi, 2007), of salema,
Sarpa salpa by spinefoot species (
Siganus spp.) and/or anchovy,
Engraulis encrasicolus by round-eye herring
E. golanii (Kallianiotis and Lekkas, 2005) is on the way in certain areas.
Furthermore, among commercially significant species that have the potential to develop or have already established populations in the Adriatic Sea are tripletail
Lobotes surinamensis and spinefoots,
Siganus luridus and
S. rivulatus [
1]. In the Adriatic Sea nations, it is vital to increase their worth through public awareness initiatives. These might be used to educate consumers about their nutritional worth, develop new processed items, and promote both fresh and processed products on the market. The best way to reduce the pressure of the populations of alien species like spinefoots and cornetfish species (Langeneck et al., 2023) is to stimulate the commercial fishery to target these species. For the Adriatic basin fisheries, Dragičević et al. [
1] suggested that this shouldn’t include only alien species but also other (thermophilic) species, whose populations are experiencing significant increase like
Pomatomus saltatrix, Sphyraena viridensis or
Balistes carolinensis.
Understanding how climate change affects fisheries income is an important step toward developing successful socioeconomic policies and food sustainability measures in adaption efforts [
101]. Lam et al. [
101] suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. While aquaculture appears to be a plausible alternative approach to alleviate the financial burden of fishing losses and increase food security under climate change, [
101] imply that aquaculture may drive down seafood prices, resulting in additional drops in fisheries earnings [
1]. In the Adriatic basin, many coastal communities rely on living marine resources for livelihoods and food security [
1,
89]. These resources are already under significant stress from overfishing, pollution, coastal development and habitat degradation, while climate change could be an additional stressor impacting coastal systems and communities [
102]. For instance, warming waters will facilitate mercury methylation and increase the methylmercury uptake in fish by about 3-5% when the temperature rises by 1°C [
103] Contaminants transmitted from the environment pose a significant hazard not only to fish life, but also to consumer health [
104]. In addition, climate change effects are expected to bring out an increase in toxic algae in waters, while particularly in marine environment [
105], it will be possible an adaptation of harmful algae [
104]. Like, it is expected to happen worldwide [
104] shellfish poisoning outbreaks are predicted to be even more frequent due to the future climate scenario in the Adriatic Sea and relative lagoons, mostly due to its peculiarities [
102,
106]
please read fishery sections). [
104] suggest hazardous algae will possibly lead to the formation of Paralytic (PSP), Amnesic (APS), Diarrhetic (DSP), Neurotoxic (NSP), and Azaspiracid (AZP) Shellfish Poisonings, and negatively affect human health, as a result of global climate change.
An increase in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will increase the resistance and incidence of bacteria, viruses, parasites, and fungi, which will cause rises in foodborne diseases, while a minor increase in water temperature broadens the geological range of nematodes and boosts their proliferation in the infective stages in many habitats. [
104]. Particularly in the Adriatic basin countries, it should be paid attention in the farming of rainbow trout and Mediterranean mussel, especially on detection and prevention of the disease’s outbreaks. Another important issue induced by climate change is the increased presence of harmful bacteria in water and aquatic species. As a result, climate change-induced temperature increases are expected to expand globally in the future. Shellfish are expected to be the main pathogen transmission route to humans, as they are filter-feeders and are generally consumed raw [
104], especially in Mediterranean Sea and Adriatic Sea, which are considered as the most valuable touristic destinations worldwide [
94]. Acidification is the other adverse effect of climate change on water resources, because crustaceans and mollusks may not form shells due to the reduction of calcification, and the availability of these foods on our tables will come to an end [
103]
In conclusion, climate change effects will deplete our seafood supply in terms of quantity and safety owing to negative consequences such as higher levels of pollution, parasites, viruses, infections, acidification, and toxicities such as shellfish poisoning. Global food safety strategies should be developed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote environmentally friendly technology. Strategies must be devised to address emerging concerns such as climate change, which affects seafood quality and microbiological safety.
In the future, a key aspect would be to assess the vulnerability of natural ecosystems before the arrival of new species [
85] and probably new diseases [
106]; but in the Adriatic Sea, similarly to the Mediterranean marine environment, relatively little effort has been made to improve predictions about the spatial distributions of these species under different climate scenarios [
107,
108]. Nowadays, this knowledge is of primary importance not only for the Mediterranean Sea (as one of the most invaded marine regions in the world [
109], but also for the Adriatic Sea, as a very particular ecosystem of the Mediterranean Sea, which is warming faster than the global average [
110].