1. Introduction
Markov process is a very important branch of stochastic processes and has a very wide range of applications. Many research works can be referenced, such as, Anderson [
1], Asmussen [
3], Chen [
9] and others.
The birth-death process is a very important class of Markov processes, which has been widely applied in finance, communications, population science and queueing theory. In the past few decades, there are many works on generalizing the ordinary birth-death process and make the theory of birth-death processes more and more fruitful. Recently, the stochastic models with catastrophe have aroused much research interest. For example, Chen Zhang and Liu [
5], Economou and Fakinos [
12], Pakes [
18] considered the instantaneous distribution of continuous-time Markov chains with catastrophes. Chen and Renshaw [
7,
8] analyzed the effect of catastrophes on the
queuing model. Zhang and Li [
20] extended these results to the
queuing model with catastrophes. Li and Zhang [
17] further considered the effect of catastrophes on the
queuing model. Di Crescenzo et al [
10] discussed the probability distribution and the relevant numerical characteristics of the first occurrence time of an effective disaster for general birth-death process with catastrophes. Other related works can be seen from Artalejo [
2], Bayer and Boxma [
4], Chen, Pollett, Li and Zhang [
6], Dudin and Karolik [
11], Gelenbe [
13], Gelenbe, Glynn and Sigman [
14], Jain and Sigman [
15],
In this paper, we mainly consider the property of the first occurrence time of effective catastrophe for the general birth-death processes with two-type catastrophes.
We start our discussion by presenting the infinitesimal generator, i.e., the so called q-matrix.
Definition 1.
Let be a continuous-time Markov chain on state space , if its q-matrix is by
where and are given by
with and , respectively.
Then is called a birth-death processes with two-type catastrophes. Its probability transition function is denoted by and the corresponding resolvent is denoted by .
Remark 1. By Definition 1, α and β describe the rates of catastrophes. We called them α-catastrophe and β-catastrophe, respectively. That is, α-catastrophe kills all the individuals in the system, while β-catastrophe partially kills the individuals in the system with only one individual left. If , i.e., there is no catastrophe, then degenerates into an ordinary birth-death process, which is denoted by , its q-matrix is denoted by . The probability transition function of is denoted by and the corresponding resolvent is denoted by .
2. Probability Transition Function
From Definition 1, we see that a catastrophe may reduce the system state to 0 or 1. However, since natural death rate , when the system state transfer to 0 from 1 or transfer to 1 from 2, it is difficult to distinguish whether it was a catastrophe or a natural death. Therefore, it is important to discuss such effective catastrophe. For this purpose, we first construct the relationship of and (or equivalently, and ).
Lemma 1. (i)
satisfies the following Kolmogorov forward equations: for any and ,
or equivalently, in the resolvent version,
(ii)
satisfies the following Kolmogorov forward equations: for any and ,
or equivalently, in the resolvent version,
Proof. (i) By Kolmogorov forward equations and the honesty of
, we know that
and
The other equalities of (i) and (ii) follow directly from Kolmogorov forward equations and Laplace transform. The proof is complete. □
The following theorem plays an important role in the later discussion, it reveals the relationship of and (or equivalently, and ).
Theorem 1.
For any , we have
or equivalently in resolvent version,
Proof. We first assume
. The corresponding process is denoted by
and its probability transition function is denoted by
. Denote
. Let
be a Poisson process with parameter
, which is independent of
, note that
can be viewed as a catastrophe flow. Let
be the time until the first catastrophe before time
t. Then
has the truncated exponential law
Denote
. Let
be an independent sequence copies of
but with
. Define
by
Then,
is a continuous-time Markov chain, it evolves like
, at the first catastrophe time, it jumps to state 1, and then evolves like
, at the next catastrophe time, it jumps to state 1 again, and so on. Let
be the probability transition function of
. Then
where
and
is the mathematical expectation under
. Denote
for a moment. Then the above equality equals to
Since
and
, we have
and
It is easy to check that
. This implies that
and
are same in sense of distribution. Hence,
Now consider the general case
. Denote
. Let
be a Poisson process with parameter
, which is independent of
.
can be viewed as a catastrophe flow with parameter
. Let
be the time until the first catastrophe before time
t. Then
has the truncated exponential law
Denote
. Let
be an independent sequence copies of
but with
. Define
by
Let
be the probability transition function of
. By a similar argument as above, we know that
It is easy to check that
. This implies that
and
are same in sense of distribution. Hence,
(
6) is proved. Taking Laplace transform on (
6) implies (
7). The proof is complete. □
3. The First Occurrence Time of Effective Catastrophe
We now consider the first effective catastrophe of . Let is the first occurrence time of effective catastrophe for starting from state j. The probability density function of is denoted by . Let and be the first occurrence time of effective -catastrophe and effective -catastrophe, respectively. It is obvious that .
The property of
or
can be similarly discussed as in Di Crescenzo et al [
10]. In this paper, we mainly consider the property of
and the probabilities
and
. For this purpose, we construct a new process
such that
coincides with
until the occurrence of catastrophe, but
enter into an absorbing state
if the first effective catastrophe is
-type and enter into another absorbing state
if the first effective catastrophe is
-type. Therefore the state space of
is
and its
q-matrix
is given by
Let and be the -transition function and -resolvent.
Lemma 2.
or equivalently, in resolvent version,
Proof. By Kolmogorov forward equation,
The other equalities of (
9) follow directly from Kolmogorov forward equations and (
10) follows from the Laplace transform of (
9). The proof is complete. □
We now investigate the relationship of
and
. For this purpose, define
and
Theorem 2.
Let be the -resolvent. Then
with being given by .
Proof. By (
10) with
,
and by (
5) with
,
Substitute (
22) into (
18) and use (
20), we have
Indeed, by the first equality of (
18),
i.e.,
It follows from the first equality of (
20) and the first equality of (
21) that
By the second equality of (
18),
i.e.,
It follows from the second equality of (
20) and the second equality of (
21) that
Therefore, (
23) holds. It follows from (
23) that
The other equalities of (
18) also hold.
Substitute (
24) into (
19) and use (
21), we have
Indeed, by the second equality of (
19),
i.e.,
It follows from the second equality of (
20) and the second equality of (
21) that
By the first equality of (
19),
i.e.,
It follows from the first equality of (
20) and the first equality of (
21) that
Therefore, (
25) holds. It follows from (
25) that
The other equalities of (
19) also hold.
By (
10) with
,
and by (
5) with
,
Substitute (
28) into the last equality of (
26), we have
By the last equalities of (
20), (
21) and (
27), we have
for
and hence
.
Substitute (
28) into the first and second equality of (
26) and use (
20), (
21), we have
Solving (
30) yields (
16) and (
17). The proof is complete. □
By Theorem 1, we know that
Then,
can be represented as
Hence, by some algebra,
can be represented as
where
,
. Indeed,
which implies (
33).
Theorem 3.
Let be the -resolvent and be the -resolvent. Then,
Proof. By (
11), (
12) and Theorem 1, we know that for any
,
Note that the right hand sides of (
16) and (
17) are well defined, we can define
and
for
. Hence, it follows from Theorem 2 that for any
,
and
Therefore, by some algebra, one can get
By Theorems 1 and 2, for any
,
where
and
are given in (
16) and (
17). By (
35) and (
36), we know (
34) holds for
.
As for
, by (
13) and Theorem 1,
By the definition of
,
On the other hand, by some algebra, one can see that
Therefore, (
34) holds for
. By a similar argument, (
34) also holds for
. The proof is complete. □
We now consider the probability distribution of and the related probabilities and . It is easy to see that is differentiable in t for . Let for . Also, let denote the Laplace transform of for and denote the Laplace transform of .
Theorem 4.
where and are given in Theorem 3. In particular,
where and are given by .
Proof. By the definitions of
and
, we know that for any
,
and
Therefore,
and
. Hence,
and
By (
10) of Lemma 2, we know that
and
Therefore, by the first two equalities of (
10),
and hence
Note that , the last two assertions hold. The proof is complete. □
We now consider the mathematical expectation and variance of .
Theorem 5.
where and are given by .
Proof.
Differentiating the above equality yields that
Let
and note that
, we have
Differentiating (
37) yields that
Let
in the above equality yields that
The proof is complete. □
Finally, if
or
, we get the following result which is due to Di Crescenzo et al [
10].
Corollary 1. (i) If
, then for any
,
and
(ii) If
, then for any
,
and
Proof.
(i) is proved. The proof of (ii) is similar. □
Acknowledgments
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11771452, No. 11971486).
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