Wang, H.; Zhi, F.; Zhang, G. Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Suitable Distribution of Critically Endangered Tree Species Yulania zenii (W. C. Cheng) D. L. Fu in China. Forests2024, 15, 883.
Wang, H.; Zhi, F.; Zhang, G. Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Suitable Distribution of Critically Endangered Tree Species Yulania zenii (W. C. Cheng) D. L. Fu in China. Forests 2024, 15, 883.
Wang, H.; Zhi, F.; Zhang, G. Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Suitable Distribution of Critically Endangered Tree Species Yulania zenii (W. C. Cheng) D. L. Fu in China. Forests2024, 15, 883.
Wang, H.; Zhi, F.; Zhang, G. Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Suitable Distribution of Critically Endangered Tree Species Yulania zenii (W. C. Cheng) D. L. Fu in China. Forests 2024, 15, 883.
Abstract
Climate change poses a serious threat to the ancient Magnoliaceae family, particularly for the endangered Yulania trees. Until now, little is known about the suitable geographical range of Yulania zenii, and about how it responds to past and future climate scenarios. Here, we first employed ten models from Biomod2 to preliminarily simulate its potential distribution in China and selected MaxEnt for final modeling. The results showed that among the key environmental factors influencing its distribution, the top three factors were Bio2 (Mean diurnal range), Bio15 (Precipitation seasonality of variation coefficient) and Elevation. Its current suitable distribution were primarily concentrated in southern Anhui, central Hubei, eastern Hunan, southern Jiangsu, northern Jiangxi, and northern Zhejiang. The total suitable area of Yulania zenii was 14.68 × 104 km2, only taking 1.53% of China's total territory, which is larger than known. During the Last Interglacial and Middle Holocene, its suitable habitats were larger than currently, exhibiting a relatively continuous distribution. Under various future climate scenarios, its suitable habitats may averagely decrease by 20.26% compared with the current, and these habitats become more fragmented. Collectively, the centroid of Yulania zenii is expected to migrate towards the southeast in the future. Therefore, our findings demonstrate, for the first time, that climate change takes an adverse effect on this species in distribution from the past to current till future. Our study can contribute to the conservation and management of Yulania zenii in China, and can provide reference for other endangered Yulania species of this country under the condition of climate change.
Biology and Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
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