Version 1
: Received: 17 May 2024 / Approved: 20 May 2024 / Online: 21 May 2024 (14:48:02 CEST)
How to cite:
Basse, J.; Camara, M.; Diba, I.; DIEDHIOU, A. Projected Changes in Dry and Wet Spells over West Africa Using Markov chain Approach. Preprints2024, 2024051295. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1295.v1
Basse, J.; Camara, M.; Diba, I.; DIEDHIOU, A. Projected Changes in Dry and Wet Spells over West Africa Using Markov chain Approach. Preprints 2024, 2024051295. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1295.v1
Basse, J.; Camara, M.; Diba, I.; DIEDHIOU, A. Projected Changes in Dry and Wet Spells over West Africa Using Markov chain Approach. Preprints2024, 2024051295. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1295.v1
APA Style
Basse, J., Camara, M., Diba, I., & DIEDHIOU, A. (2024). Projected Changes in Dry and Wet Spells over West Africa Using Markov chain Approach. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1295.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Basse, J., Ibrahima Diba and Arona DIEDHIOU. 2024 "Projected Changes in Dry and Wet Spells over West Africa Using Markov chain Approach" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1295.v1
Abstract
The study examines projected changes in dry- and wet-spell probabilities in West Africa using a Markov chain approach. Four simulations of regional climate models from the CORDEX-Africa program were used to analyze projected changes in intraseasonal variability. The results show an increase in the probability of having a dry day, a dry day preceding a wet day and a dry day preceding a dry day, and a decrease in the probability of wet days in the Sahel region under anthropogenic forcing scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The decrease in wet days is stronger in the far future and under the RCP8.5 scenario (up to -30%). The study also finds that the probability of consecutive dry days (lasting at least 7 days and 10 days) is expected to increase in the Western Sahel, the Central Sahel, and the Sudanian Area under both scenarios, with stronger increases in the RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast, the decrease is expected over the Guinea Coast, with the changes more important under the RCP4.5. These changes in dry- and wet-spell probabilities are important for water management decisions and risk reduction in the energy and agricultural sectors. The study also highlights the need for decision-makers to implement mitigation and adaptation policies to minimize the adverse effects of climate change.
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
