Article
Version 1
This version is not peer-reviewed
Stochastic Extensions of the Elo Rating System
Version 1
: Received: 23 July 2024 / Approved: 24 July 2024 / Online: 25 July 2024 (11:01:41 CEST)
How to cite: Gómez-Abejón, G.; Rodríguez, J. Stochastic Extensions of the Elo Rating System. Preprints 2024, 2024071974. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202407.1974.v1 Gómez-Abejón, G.; Rodríguez, J. Stochastic Extensions of the Elo Rating System. Preprints 2024, 2024071974. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202407.1974.v1
Abstract
This work studies how the Elo rating system can be applied to score-based sports, where it’s gaining popularity, and in particular for predicting the result at any point of a game, extending its statistical basis to stochastic processes. We derive some new theoretical results for this model and use them to implement Elo ratings for basketball and soccer leagues, where the assumptions of our model are tested and found to be mostly accurate. We showcase several metrics for comparing the performance of different ratings systems and determine whether adding a feature has a statistically significant impact. Finally, we propose an Elo model based in a discrete process for the score that allows us to obtain draw probabilities for soccer matches, and has a performance competitive with alternatives like SPI ratings.
Keywords
Rating Systems; Elo; Stochastic Processes; Sports Forecasting
Subject
Computer Science and Mathematics, Probability and Statistics
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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