1. Introduction
Achieving carbon peak and neutrality is a major strategic decision made by the state to coordinate domestic and international situations, and line loss management is of great importance to the development of the country and the power grid. Reducing line loss can improve the efficiency of the power system, reduce power loss, improve the quality of power supply, and reduce the operating costs of the power grid. This not only facilitates the sustainable development of the power industry but also ensures the country's energy security and economic development [
1]. At the same time, line loss management can also promote technological progress and innovation in the power industry, driving the power industry towards intelligent, digital, efficient, and green development and enhancing the competitiveness and core competitiveness of the power industry [
2,
3]. The line loss management evaluation methods and indicators used by power grid companies have different focuses. Reference [
4] constructs a comprehensive evaluation system for line loss management of the power grid, combining subjective and objective weights to score indicators, ensuring the authenticity and reliability of the indicator scores. Reference [
5], based on the evaluation system for transformer interval line loss reduction strategies, establishes a line loss calculation model using convolutional neural networks to more accurately assess the line loss levels in the distribution transformer area. Zhong Xiaoqiang et al [
6] trained with multiple dimensional electrical characteristic parameters of the substation area as inputs to obtain the corresponding deep learning line loss rate calculation model.
For the research above methods, whether using the comprehensive line loss rate as the evaluation standard or using the comprehensive line loss rate as the main criterion and the voltage-level line loss rate and the active line loss rate as supplementary criteria [
7], the selection of indicators is either one-sided, without exploring the characteristics of line loss, or focuses on the analysis of line loss faults in the distribution network, or focuses on data analysis on the transformer side and the user side [
8]. More consideration must be given to the dimensionality of line loss indicators and the extraction of knowledge from data of different structures [
9]. At the same time, there needs to be a more comprehensive evaluation of the entire process of line loss in the power grid field. Some evaluation systems need to be more active in pursuing objective data results and discussing the impact of subjective human factors [
10,
11]. In addition, some analytical methods only choose subjective analyses based on expert evaluation, such as the Analytic Hierarchy Process or the Delphi method, making data detection susceptible to personal authority influence and lacking universality [
12]. Therefore, a complete and refined line loss comprehensive evaluation management system based on a knowledge graph is essential.
2. Materials and MethodsConstructing the Knowledge Map of Line Loss Comprehensive Evaluation Management
In response to the issues of chaotic line loss indicators and unclear characteristics of these indicators, it is necessary to go through two steps in the knowledge graph: knowledge acquisition and knowledge extraction. In power systems with a complex knowledge structure, researchers have recently begun to use knowledge graphs to visualize knowledge and improve the efficiency of knowledge utilization. Rui Liu et al. [
13], based on the complexity and real-time changes of power system operations and maintenance, proposed a process of multiple data handling, knowledge representation learning, and graph construction but did not point out its role in improving the operational efficiency of the power system in reference schemes and decision guidance; Chen Qian et al. [
14] conducted a systematic review and summary of the application of Knowledge Graphs (KG) in fault diagnosis and handling in power systems, aiming to provide ample and comprehensive guidance for further research in this field; Chen Junbin et al. [
15] reviewed the development of knowledge graph technology from aspects such as knowledge extraction, knowledge representation learning, knowledge mining, knowledge reasoning, knowledge fusion, and the application of knowledge graphs. They introduced the application and prospects of knowledge graphs in the scheduling operation of power systems in terms of assisting in optimized decision-making, vertical risk control, operational pattern analysis, optimizing model improvement experience, and superparameter tuning. However, they noted that there still needs to be more examining data correlation.
Existing research on domain-specific knowledge graphs shows varied technical architectures but commonly includes knowledge extraction, fusion, and processing [
16]. This paper uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction, feature extraction, data compression, and noise reduction on extensive indicator sets. The line loss evaluation entity graph integrates the power grid's network topology, planned losses, and management-related losses, facilitating entity querying and matching for the evaluation logic graph.
Guided by the principal component analysis in selecting indicator elements, the generation of the evaluation logic graph is directed [
17]. The evaluation logic graph defined in this paper is a networked and structured expression of specific evaluation logic emphasized in the traditional evaluation system, such as evaluation indicators, indicator weights, and comprehensive evaluation criteria. According to the evaluation elements defined by the data model, the generation of the evaluation logic graph is guided by applying technical methods such as natural language processing, knowledge extraction, and information structuring. This allows for obtaining specific content such as the definition of evaluation indicators, indicator calculation methods, the design process of indicator weights, and evaluation criteria models.
The
Figure 1 illustrates the construction process of the comprehensive line loss evaluation management knowledge graph.
4. Construction of Line Loss Comprehensive Evaluation Management Logic Diagram
The line loss indicator system screened based on Principal Component Analysis has different focuses for each indicator. At the same time, these indicators may not fully address the actual municipal power grid line loss management system. In practical applications, it is often necessary to assign weights to each indicator to reflect the objectivity of the indicator evaluation results. There are differences in the evaluation indicators among different evaluation systems; some evaluation methods tend to be subjective to experts, while others are overly objective. Given the extensive and complex nature of existing line loss management, which can lead to data redundancy and bias, this paper proposes a composite evaluation method for line loss indicators based on a knowledge graph [
24,
25].
Faced with the above issues, this paper chooses to integrate the single evaluation method of line loss indicators, integrating the evaluation ideas between methods to achieve an "organic combination." The evaluation logic knowledge graph presents the abstract knowledge of power grid line losses in a composite evaluation manner, dividing the evaluation logic knowledge graph into three parts: evaluation index content, weight logic, and evaluation logic. This study's line loss evaluation target indicators can generally be divided into four dimensions: planning, management, operation, and technology. Evaluation results across different dimensions may exhibit extreme and outlier values, causing certain deviations in the overall indicator evaluation results. Therefore, this paper constructs a composite evaluation framework based on the DEMATEL subjective weighting method and the Entropy-Weight and TOPSIS objective weighting methods.
4.1. Fuzzy DEMATEL Method
DEMATEL (Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method, called 'Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, 'is a method of system analysis based on graph theory and matrix. This method was proposed by Gabus and Fontela in 2010. The triangular fuzzy number in the fuzzy set theory is introduced to improve the DEMATEL method, which avoids the subjective differences of experts, quantifies the relationship between factors, deals with the fuzziness of the evaluation process, and ensures that the weight results are accurate and true.
By analyzing the logical relationship between the various elements in the system and the direct influence relationship between the phases, the degree of influence of each factor on other factors and the degree of influence are calculated, and the degree of cause and center of the sea factors are calculated. [
26].
In [
27,
28], the influence degree
and the influence degree
of each factor are calculated by the comprehensive influence matrix
; and the centrality
and the cause degree
The centrality
represents the importance of the index in the system. The greater the centrality is, the more important the index is. Finally, the subjective weights of the DEMATEL method can be obtained from the centrality
:
In the formula, represents the information entropy redundancy of the index j, and represents the weight of each index.
4.2. Entropy Weight Method Objective Weighting
Claude Elwood Shannon first introduced entropy in information theory, and it has since been widely applied in various fields such as engineering technology and socio-economics[
29]. The entropy weight method can determine objective weights based on the variability of line loss indicators. Generally speaking, the smaller the information entropy of an indicator, the greater the variability of its value, the more information it provides, and the greater its role in comprehensive evaluation, hence its more significant weight. Conversely, the larger the information entropy of an indicator, the smaller the variability of its value, the less information it offers, and the smaller its role in comprehensive line loss evaluation, resulting in a smaller weight [
29].
In the formula,
represents the entropy value of the jth index, and
sample value accounts for the proportion of the index.
In the formula, represents the information entropy redundancy of the index j, and represents the weight of each index.
4.3. Combined Evaluation Analysis Based on DEMATEL-Entropy Weight-TOPSIS
The DEMATEL method is proposed for filtering the main elements of complex systems and simplifying the process of system structure analysis[
30]. This methodology fully utilizes the experience and knowledge of experts to deal with complex issues, especially for systems with uncertain relationships between elements. However, the DEMATEL evaluation is more inclined towards subjective expert factors and is susceptible to personal biases. Therefore, the Entropy-Weight objective weighting method is proposed. The Entropy-Weight method can objectively reflect the differences and importance among various indicators, providing more accurate computational results. However, indicators must conform as closely as possible to a normal distribution, do not handle outliers well, and do not account for the interdependencies between indicators. Thus, based on an analysis of the connotations of low-carbon competitiveness, this paper integrates multiple evaluation approaches, combining subjective and objective evaluation methods, and applies a composite of various evaluation methods. This integration aims to complement each other, enabling a comprehensive, scientific, and objective assessment of regional line loss competitiveness, ensuring that the indicator weights reflect the objectivity of the data, and guarantee the predictability of the indicator system.
The TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) method is a sorting technique that approximates an ideal solution. It ranks a finite set of evaluation objects based on their closeness to an idealized target, making it a commonly used and effective evaluation method in multi-criteria decision analysis [
30]. Because this method can objectively rank evaluation objects in a scientifically sound and reasonable manner, scholars have widely adopted it for evaluating sample data. However, the conventional TOPSIS method does not consider the weights of individual indicators; instead, it uses a one-dimensional qualitative approach that averages the weights of evaluation indicators for ranking. This can lead to a deviation between the evaluation results and objective values. This paper will use the weighted TOPSIS method, based on the combined subjective and objective weight results calculated earlier in the paper, to construct a DEMATEL-Entropy Weight-TOPSIS evaluation approach. This approach will be used to calculate the scores for the competitiveness of line loss in Nanning City over the years, with the specific calculation process as follows:
With the same trend and index dimensionless for positive and negative indicators, the normalized formula is :
Calculate the distance between each evaluation object and the optimal scheme and the worst scheme
and
:
Calculate the closeness of each evaluation object to the optimal scheme and the worst scheme
:
The content of the evaluation index part involves relationships between various index entities that are primarily parallel or inclusive. The specific attributes of each index include the calculation method, actual value, index weight, and corresponding evaluation. The data for index calculation can be obtained through data collection and preprocessing methods. For instance, when calculating indices such as the proportion of overloaded lines, voltage qualification rate, power supply reliability, and fault outage rate, information such as the total number of lines, number of users, outage conditions of each user, and voltage status at voltage monitoring points is required. Information such as the total number of lines and the number of users is stored in the power grid equipment database and user information database, and can be directly retrieved from the database. The voltage status at voltage monitoring points and other required information must be derived from historical data through statistical calculations. Descriptive statistical methods can be utilized, and corresponding programs can be developed to achieve this.
V. Construction of Line Loss Comprehensive Evaluation Management Case Map
The comprehensive evaluation case graph of the power grid stores historical evaluation case information for the area, providing case characteristics such as historical evaluation targets, content, methods, models, and historical performance of various indices. This enables the calculation of similarity between cases over different time periods, facilitating performance comparison of the distribution network across temporal dimensions. On one hand, it can uncover potential issues, and on the other hand, cases with high similarity can provide reference for the current evaluation task.
5.1. Line Loss Index Model Based on Principal Component Analysis
Guangxi Power Grid Corporation, adhering to the "Line Loss Management Measures" required by China Southern Power Grid, divides the evaluation process into four levels: planning for loss reduction, management for loss reduction, operation for loss reduction, and technology for loss reduction, covering the entire process of line loss management. Line loss management, as a comprehensive indicator reflecting the high-quality development level of the power grid, involves professions such as power grid planning and construction, technology, operation, and marketing, which is equivalent to a "comprehensive physical examination" for the power grid. Traditional line loss rate statistics are affected by the inconsistency of meter reading periods, resulting in large monthly fluctuations and significant deviations between analysis conclusions and actual conditions, making the "physical examination report" not precise enough, and thus "prescribing medicine" becomes difficult. To address this challenge, Nanning Power Supply Bureau has fully implemented an innovative management of comprehensive line loss in the same period this year, relying on the unified meter reading cycle of supply and sales electricity quantity and "big data" support. For the first time, the comprehensive line loss rate of "day, month, and year" for power grid equipment has achieved index regression to the true and visual monitoring, realizing the modeling and analysis of the operating loss of the entire main grid and distribution grid equipment. Accurately finding the "problem" allows for precise measures for loss reduction, achieving the management effect of "lifting the Earth with a fulcrum."
To demonstrate the practicality of the indicator selection method in this paper, 104 sets of line loss indicator data from municipal power grid enterprises of the Southern Power Grid are taken as an example. The comprehensive line loss rate and the industry's evaluation of power grid enterprises' line loss are used to divide the 104 sets of data into 44 Class A enterprises and 60 Class B enterprises, and the composite evaluation analysis method is selected for verification.
The case study uses statistical calculation data of 104 power supply enterprises' line loss reduction impact indicators, each sample containing 13 indicators in four major categories: planning for loss reduction, management for loss reduction, operation for loss reduction, and technology for loss reduction. The cumulative contribution rate of these 37 principal components has reached 100.00%, and the cumulative contribution rate of the first 13 principal components has reached 70.211%, calculating the comprehensive line loss reduction indicators for each city. As shown in
Table 1, after standardizing the sample data and performing principal component analysis, the contribution rates of each principal component are obtained.
The cumulative variance contribution rate of the 13 principal components reaches 70.211%, representing more than 70.211% of the characteristic information of the line loss indicators. The line loss impact factors selected through principal component analysis can be divided into four major categories: planning dimension indicators account for 17.7% of the characteristic information, management dimension indicators account for 44.5%, operational dimension indicators account for 18.2%, and technical dimension indicators account for 19.6%, totaling 13 indicators. The feature extraction of line loss based on principal component analysis retains the features that contribute the most to the variance in the dataset. Replacing 37 indicators with 13 indicators greatly reduces the computational load and provides a scientific evaluation of objective phenomena. For detailed cumulative contribution rates of the 37 principal components, see Appendix I.
5.2. Data Analysis and Experimental Platform
There are as many as 3.05 million users in the local city. The traditional customer electricity accurate portrait and collection management is very difficult and has a long cycle. Based on the basic data of Nanning from 2014 to 2017, this paper uses the DEMATEL-Entropy Weight-TOPSIS combination evaluation method to conduct an empirical study on the whole process of line loss management evaluation system. Based on the above subjective and objective combination of weight determination methods, this paper will follow the scientific, objective and reasonable evaluation ideas, on the basis of specific data analysis, according to the expert assignment weight, to ensure that the index weight determination in the design index system is scientific, and the index data weight is objective and reasonable. Therefore, the weight and obtained by the expert assignment of the subjective evaluation method, the weight and of the objective evaluation method, according to the weight ratio ∶ = 1 ∶ 1 and ∶ = 1 ∶1, the weighted average is carried out again, and the weight of each evaluation index in the evaluation index system is finally calculated.
5.3. Ablation Experiment Based on DEMATEL-Entropy Weight-TOPSIS Whole Process Combination Evaluation Method
An ablation experiment simulation was conducted on the model to verify the effectiveness of each part of the predictive model proposed in this paper, DEMATEL-Entropy Weight-TOPSIS. There are two ablation experiments, each removing the structures of DEMATEL and Entropy Weight, respectively. Therefore, the evaluation methods involved in this paper's ablation prediction comparison are DEMATEL-TOPSIS evaluation and Entropy Weight-TOPSIS evaluation, respectively. These evaluation methods retain the comparison of the distance between each scheme and the ideal solution to judge the superiority or inferiority of the schemes and analyze the impact of various line loss indicators on enterprises from a horizontal perspective.
Using the entropy value method for weight assignment in the ablation experiment can improve the drawbacks of the traditional subjective human weight assignment in the TOPSIS method. It can also avoid the distortion of the evaluation results caused by too much human interference. The TOPSIS method does not require too many evaluation samples. It can fully and objectively reflect the advantages and disadvantages of various evaluation schemes through the information from the original data.
To address the impact of the interaction among comprehensive evaluation indicators on the system evaluation, the DEMATEL method was used to solve the relationships between indicators. Experts in the power industry were invited to distinguish the indicators into cause factors and result factors. A total of 50 experts with rich theoretical knowledge and field experience were invited as research subjects to score the degree of mutual influence between various risk factors according to the rules.
Table 2.
Influencing factors of fuzzy dematel analysis.
Table 2.
Influencing factors of fuzzy dematel analysis.
Target |
Impact f: |
Affected e; |
Center Cloud |
Z sort |
Reason y; |
Factor attributes |
Main variable capacity-to-load ratioU11
|
1.374 |
0.740 |
2.114 |
10 |
0.634 |
Cause factors |
The pass rate of reactive power configuration of substationU12
|
1.213 |
1.807 |
3.020 |
7 |
-0.594 |
Result factors |
Unplanned outage rate of distribution linesU13
|
0.814 |
0.809 |
1.622 |
13 |
0.005 |
Cause factors |
Public change outage rateU14
|
1.990 |
1.128 |
3.117 |
5 |
0.862 |
Cause factors |
The proportion of old low-voltage energy metersU21
|
1.088 |
1.447 |
2.535 |
9 |
-0.359 |
Result factors |
The proportion of automatic meter readingU22
|
0.730 |
1.107 |
1.836 |
11 |
-0.377 |
Result factors |
Data acquisition integrity rate of four types of terminalsU23
|
1.214 |
0.561 |
1.775 |
12 |
0.653 |
Cause factors |
The rate of emergency repair orders for hundreds of householdsU24
|
2.079 |
1.268 |
3.347 |
2 |
0.811 |
Cause factors |
Electricity sales growth rateU25
|
0.962 |
1.845 |
2.807 |
8 |
-0.883 |
Result factors |
The success rate of automatic execution of fee controlU26
|
0.881 |
2.165 |
3.046 |
6 |
-1.184 |
Result factors |
Power factor pass rateU31
|
1.132 |
2.190 |
3.322 |
4 |
-1.185 |
Result factors |
Availability rate of substation reactive power compensation deviceU41
|
1.434 |
2.028 |
3.462 |
1 |
-0.594 |
Result factors |
Energy-saving main variable ratioU42
|
1.910 |
1.436 |
3.346 |
3 |
0.474 |
Cause factors |
The whole process line loss management data of Nanning City was selected as a sample, and a total of 10 experts were selected to score the line loss management level indicators of the project by means of independent scoring by experts. According to the scoring matrix, the weight is calculated using the entropy weight method. The weight of each index in the comprehensive evaluation index system of line loss management is shown in the following
Table 3 Entropy Weight Analyze the influencing factors.
5.4. Comparison and Post-Test of Comprehensive Evaluation Results of Line Loss under Ablation Evaluation Method
Based on the standardized raw data and the comprehensive indicator weights from the fuzzy DEMATEL method and Entropy Weight method presented in
Table 2 and
Table 3, the TOPSIS algorithm model was applied. Utilizing Equation 12, the Euclidean distance of the positive and negative ideal solutions for the line loss reduction management capability was calculated. Subsequently, Equation 13 was used to determine the target layer closeness degree of 11 electric power companies in 2021 for line loss management capability, and the companies were ranked according to the degree of closeness, as shown in
Table 4. The scores from the ablation experiment based on the DEMATEL-Entropy Weight-TOPSIS model are presented in the table below.
As shown in
Figure 3 above, the rank correlation coefficient is used for testing. The rank correlation coefficient, also known as the rank correlation coefficient, is a statistic obtained by ranking the sample values of the two elements in the order of the size of the data and replacing the actual data with the order of the sample values of each element.
In the case of n > 8, the t-test is performed on the rank correlation coefficient ρ. The test statistic is :
If , it can be considered that the results of the ablation evaluation method are not closely related to the results of the analysis, otherwise the results of the combined evaluation are closely related to the results of the original method.
The rank correlation coefficients of the original combination evaluation results with DEMATEL-TOPSIS method and Entropy Weight-TOPSIS method are 0.9512,0.8593 and 0.6440 respectively. The corresponding t values were 16.6018, 14.0463 and 13.5327, respectively. The test critical value corresponding to the significant level a = 0.05 is , which is easy to judge that the results of DEMATEL-Entropy Weight-TOPSIS combination evaluation are closely related to the results of expert evaluation.
The 2021 sample enterprises' line loss management capability assessment scores showed varying degrees of difference. Through clustering and stratification, enterprises with more robust line loss management capabilities scored above 0.92, while those with weaker capabilities scored below 0.7, with the rest falling into the medium category. The enterprises with a strong gradient of line loss management capability include four listed companies: BS, BH, LZ, and HC. Among them, BS enterprise had the highest comprehensive score for line loss management capability in 2021, indicating that it is generally ideal. LB's line loss management capability score was 0.917, placing it in the second tier, with a general strength in line loss management capability, and the total number of enterprises in the second tier accounted for 45.4% of the research sample. The lowest comprehensive score was obtained by GL company, with a score of 0.616, a difference of 0.437 points from the top-scoring enterprise, indicating a significant difference in management capability and considerable room for improvement in line loss management.
D. Based on DEMATEL-Entropy Weight-TOPSIS, the evaluation system of line loss management in the whole process of a city in Guangxi is studied.
According to the established evaluation indicator system, data was collected and processed through data verification and proportion calculation to obtain the values of secondary indicators. The optimal values for positive and negative indicators were set to 1 and 0, respectively, while the optimal value for interval indicators was taken as the specified maximum value. The acceptable values were determined by national standards, industry standards, or specifications, as well as expert experience.
As shown in
Table 5 and
Figure 4, from 2012 to 2022, the overall trend of the full-process line loss management in Nanning City showed an upward trend. The development was relatively flat from 2012 to 2016, rapidly increasing after 2016, indicating a positive trend in line loss management. The reason for the relatively flat development from 2014 to 2016 was that although the competitiveness of management loss reduction and planning loss reduction continued to rise steadily, operational loss reduction decreased by about 23.7%, significantly lowering the line loss management competitiveness score. In 2016, the competitiveness of urban management loss reduction decreased by about 15.3% compared to 2015, which constrained the development of line loss management in Nanning City, leading to a decrease in the overall low-carbon competitiveness score for these two years. At the same time, as shown in
Table 3 and
Figure 3, the operational loss reduction showed a fluctuating development from 2014 to 2017, with an overall slight downward trend; the development trend of technical loss reduction was good, roughly showing an upward trend since 2014, which is consistent with the national grid loss technology development situation;. However, the score of the planning loss reduction competitiveness indicator was not very stable, the overall change was insignificant.
The visualization and analysis of the case graph compared with the existing comprehensive line loss management of the Southern Power Grid show that the knowledge graph provides managers with more comprehensive and accurate data support after intelligently integrating and analyzing data sources. Compared with the single data report analysis of traditional methods, comprehensive evaluation can associate multiple data sources, helping managers to better understand the essence of line loss issues. The knowledge graph can also update data and knowledge in real-time, achieving intelligent line loss evaluation and management, reducing the requirements for manual intervention compared to the past, and improving management efficiency and accuracy, greatly enhancing the determination speed of comprehensive line loss evaluation management. At the same time, the knowledge graph can use data mining and predictive analysis techniques to provide early warning and forecasting for line loss issues, discovering potential risk in advance.
This paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system of line loss based on a knowledge graph. The main conclusions are as follows:
A new comprehensive line loss evaluation management knowledge graph has been constructed and divided into three modules to effectively address existing line loss characteristics, providing a more refined and detailed description of the analysis when selecting indicators than traditional graph libraries.
A new comprehensive evaluation management system for line loss reduction has been proposed based on the indicator extraction of the line loss management knowledge graph, from which four categories and 13 types of indicators are selected to build a comprehensive evaluation model for line loss reduction. This model more comprehensively reflects the correlation between indicators, achieving precise positioning of existing problems and reducing the issue of redundant computation due to similar line loss problems.
A composite evaluation method based on DEMATEL-Entropy Weight-TOPSIS has been proposed, and the reliability of the evaluation method has been verified through ablation experiments. After the case analysis of line loss in Nanning City, the authenticity and reliability of the evaluation system were tested, which allowed us to more accurately judge the advantages and disadvantages of the indicator system and reduce the probability of misjudgment.
The paper has researched the comprehensive evaluation management system for line loss reduction. With the increasing scale of distribution networks and the increasing complexity of line loss situations, line losses in the same area may also exhibit periodic changes due to users' electrical characteristics and patterns within the region. Therefore, accurately grasping the true situation of regional line losses requires further research.