Version 1
: Received: 1 August 2024 / Approved: 2 August 2024 / Online: 2 August 2024 (03:48:32 CEST)
How to cite:
Siami, L.; Wang, Y.-C.; Wang, L.-C. Quantifying Future Annual Fluxes of Polychlorinated Dibenzo-P-Dioxin and Dibenzofuran Emissions from Sugarcane Burning in Indonesia via Grey Model. Preprints2024, 2024080121. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0121.v1
Siami, L.; Wang, Y.-C.; Wang, L.-C. Quantifying Future Annual Fluxes of Polychlorinated Dibenzo-P-Dioxin and Dibenzofuran Emissions from Sugarcane Burning in Indonesia via Grey Model. Preprints 2024, 2024080121. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0121.v1
Siami, L.; Wang, Y.-C.; Wang, L.-C. Quantifying Future Annual Fluxes of Polychlorinated Dibenzo-P-Dioxin and Dibenzofuran Emissions from Sugarcane Burning in Indonesia via Grey Model. Preprints2024, 2024080121. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0121.v1
APA Style
Siami, L., Wang, Y. C., & Wang, L. C. (2024). Quantifying Future Annual Fluxes of Polychlorinated Dibenzo-P-Dioxin and Dibenzofuran Emissions from Sugarcane Burning in Indonesia via Grey Model. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0121.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Siami, L., Yu-Chun Wang and Lin-Chi Wang. 2024 "Quantifying Future Annual Fluxes of Polychlorinated Dibenzo-P-Dioxin and Dibenzofuran Emissions from Sugarcane Burning in Indonesia via Grey Model" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0121.v1
Abstract
The open burning of sugarcane residue is commonly used as a low-cost and fast method during pre-harvest and post-harvest periods. However, this practice releases various pollutants, including dioxins. This study aims to predict polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs, or dioxins) emissions using the Grey Model (GM (1,1)) and to map the annual flux spatial distribution at the provincial level from 2023 to 2028. Using the activity rate of dry crop residue from national agencies and literature, and following the guidelines set by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), an annual emission inventory was developed at the provincial level. The distribution of emissions from 2016 to 2022 was then mapped. The average PCDD/Fs emission values exhibit significant variation among the provinces, averaging 309 pg TEQ/year. Spatially, in line sugarcane production, South Sumatra and East Jawa consistently show high emissions, often exceeding 400 pg/m². Emissions based on the UNEP emission factor tend to be higher compared to other factors, due to its generic nature and lack of regional specificity. The emission predictions using the Grey Model GM (1,1) indicate that North Sumatra is expected to experience a steady increase in PCDD/Fs emissions, whereas South Sumatra and Lampung are projected to see a slight decline. This forecast assumes there will be any changes in regional intervention strategies. Most regions in Jawa Island show a gradual increase in emissions, except for East Jawa, which is predicted to have a slight decline from 416 pg/year in 2023 to 397 pg/year in 2028. Additionally, regions like Gorontalo and parts of East Jawa are projected to remain "hotspots" with consistently high emissions, suggesting the need for targeted interventions. Future studies should consider developing monthly emissions profiles to account for local agricultural practices and seasonal conditions. The emission data generated in this study, which includes both spatial and temporal distributions, is valuable for air quality modeling studies. Utilizing this data can help assess the impact of current and future emissions on ambient air quality.
Keywords
Dioxin; Sugarcane; Open burning; Grey model
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Pollution
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
