Version 1
: Received: 5 August 2024 / Approved: 5 August 2024 / Online: 5 August 2024 (12:46:32 CEST)
How to cite:
Liu, T.; Cai, H.; Zhang, G. Predicting the Potential Distribution of Endangered Changnienia amoena S. S. Chien in China Based on Ensemble Modeling. Preprints2024, 2024080322. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0322.v1
Liu, T.; Cai, H.; Zhang, G. Predicting the Potential Distribution of Endangered Changnienia amoena S. S. Chien in China Based on Ensemble Modeling. Preprints 2024, 2024080322. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0322.v1
Liu, T.; Cai, H.; Zhang, G. Predicting the Potential Distribution of Endangered Changnienia amoena S. S. Chien in China Based on Ensemble Modeling. Preprints2024, 2024080322. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0322.v1
APA Style
Liu, T., Cai, H., & Zhang, G. (2024). Predicting the Potential Distribution of Endangered Changnienia amoena S. S. Chien in China Based on Ensemble Modeling. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0322.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Liu, T., Hanwei Cai and Guangfu Zhang. 2024 "Predicting the Potential Distribution of Endangered Changnienia amoena S. S. Chien in China Based on Ensemble Modeling" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0322.v1
Abstract
Climate change has significant impacts on the distribution of orchids. The endemic and endan-gered orchids are more susceptible to climate change than widely distributed orchids. To date, lit-tle is known concerning the response of endangered Changnienia amoena, endemic to China, to different climate scenarios. Here, we chose RF, MaxEnt, and GBM to build an ensemble model af-ter using ten models from Biomod2 to project its potential distribution in China. The outcomes showed that the four key environmental factors influencing its distribution were mean diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature seasonality, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. This orchid was mainly distributed in western Hubei, the junction between Shaanxi and Sichuan, eastern Guizhou, northwestern Hunan, and the junction among Anhui, Henan, and Hubei provinces in the current. The total suitable area of C. amoena was 58.33 × 104 km2, only accounting for 6.08% of China's total territory, which is larger than known. However, only 4.48% of the suitable area is located within national nature reserves, and 3.33% within provincial nature reserves, respectively. During the Last Inter Glacial and mid-Holocene, its suitable areas were larger than the current. Under six future climate scenarios, its suitable areas may averagely decrease by 2.26% relative to the current, with severe habitat fragmentation. Col-lectively, the centroid of C. amoena is expected to migrate towards the southeast in the future. Therefore, our findings demonstrate that climate change takes an adverse effect on its potential distribution. We recommend expanding protected areas or establishing new conservation sites for C. amoena. Furthermore, our study can help to inform the development of conservation manage-ment strategies for other endangered orchids in China under climate change.
Keywords
Climate change; conservation; distribution range; environmental factors; Orchidaceae
Subject
Biology and Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
