Based on an in-depth analysis of the factors influencing the compressive strength of ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC), this study examined the impact of both single factors and combined factors on UHPC performance using experimental data. The correlation analysis indicates that cement content, water content, steel fiber, and fly ash significantly affect the strength of UHPC, whereas silica fume, superplasticizers, and slag powder have a relatively smaller influence. This analysis provides a scientific basis for model development. Furthermore, the support vector regression (SVR) model was optimized using the arithmetic optimization algorithm (AOA). The superior performance and computational efficiency of the AOA-SVR model in predicting UHPC compressive strength were validated. Compared to SVR, support vector machine（SVM）, and other single models, the AOA-SVR model achieves the highest R2 value and the lowest error rates. The results demonstrate that the optimized AOA-SVR model possesses excellent generalization ability and can more accurately predict the compressive strength of UHPC.