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A Multi-Stages Local Search Algorithm for The Large-scale Integrated Scheduling Problem of TTC and DDT with Idle Degree Requirements
Hao Wang,
Jiawei Chen,
Yuning Chen,
Qiaojing Chen
Posted: 23 November 2024
A Mathematical Model to Study Defensive Metrics in Football: Individual, Collective and Game Pressures
Jose M. Calabuig,
César Catalán,
L.M. García-Raffi,
E.A. Sánchez-Pérez
Posted: 23 November 2024
Monetary Policy Under Global and Spillover Uncertainty Shocks: What Do the Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Var, Local Projections, and Vecm Tell Us in Tunisia?
Emna Trabelsi
This study assesses the informational usefulness of several uncertainty metrics in predicting the monetary policy and actual economic activity of Tunisia. We use a Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (VAR) model to identify uncertainty shocks sequentially. We complement the analysis with the use of Local Projections (LPs), a recently flexible and simple method that accommodates the effect of an exogenous intervention on policy outcomes. The findings suggest that shocks to global and spillover uncertainty are important in triggering economic fluctuations and elucidating the dynamics of consumer prices. The irreversibility theory or the “precaution” effect is tested in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The money market rate impacts industrial production and consumer prices differently during high versus low uncertainty, depending on the uncertainty variable. The effects can be small, insignificant, or significantly negative, indicating that conventional monetary policy may be ineffective or less influential. The “wait and see” strategy adopted by economic agents implies that they do not take timely actions until additional pieces of information (especially precise) arrive. While this could not be the sole explanation of our finding, it conveys the importance of dealing with uncertainty in decision-making. Importantly, we think that it is maybe time for the central bank to switch to unconventional monetary policy instruments as a complement to the interest rate for better flexibility. Our work provides a comprehensive and clear picture of the Tunisian economy and a focal guide for the central bank’s future practices to achieve macroeconomic objectives.
This study assesses the informational usefulness of several uncertainty metrics in predicting the monetary policy and actual economic activity of Tunisia. We use a Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (VAR) model to identify uncertainty shocks sequentially. We complement the analysis with the use of Local Projections (LPs), a recently flexible and simple method that accommodates the effect of an exogenous intervention on policy outcomes. The findings suggest that shocks to global and spillover uncertainty are important in triggering economic fluctuations and elucidating the dynamics of consumer prices. The irreversibility theory or the “precaution” effect is tested in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The money market rate impacts industrial production and consumer prices differently during high versus low uncertainty, depending on the uncertainty variable. The effects can be small, insignificant, or significantly negative, indicating that conventional monetary policy may be ineffective or less influential. The “wait and see” strategy adopted by economic agents implies that they do not take timely actions until additional pieces of information (especially precise) arrive. While this could not be the sole explanation of our finding, it conveys the importance of dealing with uncertainty in decision-making. Importantly, we think that it is maybe time for the central bank to switch to unconventional monetary policy instruments as a complement to the interest rate for better flexibility. Our work provides a comprehensive and clear picture of the Tunisian economy and a focal guide for the central bank’s future practices to achieve macroeconomic objectives.
Posted: 23 November 2024
A Comprehensive Review of Recent Challenges, Opportunities, and Future Scenarios of Recycling Multilayer Packaging
Bhushan P. Meshram,
Amit Love,
Omdeo Gohatre
Posted: 23 November 2024
3D Reconstruction of the Inner Mechanics of the Second "Iron Hand" of Franconian Imperial Knight Götz von Berlichingen
Kim-Anny Schneider,
Simon Hazubski,
Andreas Otte
Posted: 22 November 2024
Environmental Degradation in GCC: Role of ICT Development, Trade, FDI, and Energy Use"
Samira Youssef Brahmia,
Sonia Mannai
Posted: 22 November 2024
Modelling of Cowpea Growth Phases Under the Impact of Water Stress Using Regression Analysis
Bongokuhle Mavuso,
Bonginkosi Thango
Posted: 22 November 2024
Ballistic and Electromagnetic Shielding in Epoxy-Jute Composites Through Carbon Black Functionalization
Raphael Henrique Morais Reis,
Roberto da Costa Lima,
Sergio Neves Monteiro,
André Ben-Hur da Silva Figueiredo,
Clara Luz de Souza Santos,
Lúcio Fábio Cassiano Nascimento
Posted: 22 November 2024
Meta-Study on Sulphur Supply and Fertilisation of Crop Species in Organic Farming of Central Europe – Part 1: Effects of Soil S Supply on DM and N Yields, Legume N2 Fixation, and Methods for Determining S Fertilizer Requirements
Hartmut Kolbe
Posted: 22 November 2024
Extraction, Process Optimization and Characterization of Garden Cress Seed Oil Grown in Ethiopia
Eshetie Gelagay Erku,
Habtamu Admassu Admassu Tessema
Posted: 22 November 2024
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