Version 1
: Received: 16 August 2024 / Approved: 16 August 2024 / Online: 19 August 2024 (09:16:57 CEST)
How to cite:
Baidoo Jnr, F. Modeling The Impact Of Economic Factors On Electoral Results: A
Predictive Approach To Ghana's 2024 Elections. Preprints2024, 2024081264. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1264.v1
Baidoo Jnr, F. Modeling The Impact Of Economic Factors On Electoral Results: A
Predictive Approach To Ghana's 2024 Elections. Preprints 2024, 2024081264. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1264.v1
Baidoo Jnr, F. Modeling The Impact Of Economic Factors On Electoral Results: A
Predictive Approach To Ghana's 2024 Elections. Preprints2024, 2024081264. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1264.v1
APA Style
Baidoo Jnr, F. (2024). Modeling The Impact Of Economic Factors On Electoral Results: A
Predictive Approach To Ghana's 2024 Elections. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1264.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Baidoo Jnr, F. 2024 "Modeling The Impact Of Economic Factors On Electoral Results: A
Predictive Approach To Ghana's 2024 Elections" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1264.v1
Abstract
Introduction – Elections are a cornerstone of democratic societies, enabling citizens to express
their preferences and shape the direction of their governments. Economic conditions, political
dynamics, and social factors often play pivotal roles in influencing voter behavior and
determining electoral outcomes, making elections a key area of study in understanding
governance and policy change.
Objectives – This study examines how key economic factors like inflation, unemployment, and
poverty influence election results in Ghana. It also looks at how these economic elements shape
voter choices and predicts the possible outcomes of the 2024 general elections using past data.
Methodology – The study used historical economic and political data from 1992 to 2023,
applying statistical models like ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) to
forecast future election outcomes. Economic indicators such as inflation and unemployment
were included to study their relationship with voter behavior.
Findings - The results show that economic factors significantly impact voter turnout and party
vote share. High inflation and unemployment rates tend to reduce voter support for incumbent
parties. The model also predicts possible outcomes for the 2024 election based on these
economic trends.
Conclusion and Recommendation – The study concludes that improving economic conditions,
such as reducing unemployment, could positively influence electoral outcomes for incumbents.
It is recommended that policymakers focus on stabilizing the economy to enhance electoral
success.
Keywords
Economic Factors, Elections, Voter Turnout, Ghana, 2024 Forecast, Political Behavior
Subject
Business, Economics and Management, Economics
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
