This version is not peer-reviewed.
Submitted:
20 August 2024
Posted:
21 August 2024
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a) Overall survival. | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Univariate analysis | Multivariable analysis | |||||
Probability (p-value) |
Risk ratio | 95% CI Lower - Upper |
Probability (p-value) |
Risk ratio | 95% CI Lower - Upper |
|
Age, >70 years Sex, female CEA, >5 ng/ml CA199, >37 U/ml DUPAN-II, >150U/ml NAC, yes PD, yes Morphology, invasive Tumor size, >2cm Differentiation, moderately or poorly Histologic infiltration, yes lymphatic venous perineural Tumor involvement, yes retroperitoneal choledochal duodenal portal vein Node metastasis, yes Regional (RLN) para-aortic (PALN) Cancer positive at surgical margin, proximal bile duct exposed area Curability, R1 Adjuvant chemotherapy, yes Chemotherapy for cancer recurrence, yes |
.983 .428 .706 .004 .143 .021 .015 .004 .101 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .004 .000 .005 .000 .004 .022 .000 .011 .686 .770 |
.995 1.172 1.099 1.800 1.504 .459 1.711 1.489 1.485 2.837 3.289 4.582 4.036 2.145 1.653 1.781 1.879 3.325 2.447 3.874 4.966 2.208 1.085 1.063 |
.651 - 1.521 .792 - 1.735 .672 - 1.797 1.212 - 2.674 .871 - 2.597 .237 - .887 1.111 - 2.637 1.138 - 1.949 .925 - 2.383 1.768 - 4.555 2.094 - 5.166 2.365 - 8.876 2.339 - 6.964 1.400 - 3.287 1.178 - 2.321 1.363 - 2.326 1.208 - 2.922 2.162 - 5.113 1.332 - 4.493 1.212 - 12.385 2.572 - 9.591 1.197 - 4.072 .731 - 1.609 .706 - 1.599 |
.419 .003 .076 .075 .004 .028 .824 .005 .662 .259 .105 .199 .167 .234 .069 .041 .632 |
1.211 .269 1.760 .693 2.442 1.967 .824 2.841 .878 .736 1.395 1.461 1.481 1.597 3.268 2.483 1.195 |
.761 - 1.926 .114 - .641 .942 - 3.288 .462 - 1.038 1.326 - 4.499 1.077 - 3.594 .320 - 2.122 1.376 - 5.865 .489 - 1.574 .432 - 1.253 .932 - 2.088 .820 - 2.604 .849 - 2.582 .739 - 3.449 .912 - 11.704 1.036 - 5.948 .576 - 2.480 |
b) Cancer-free survival. | ||||||
Univariate analysis | Multivariable analysis | |||||
Probability (p-value) |
Risk ratio |
95% CI Lower - Upper |
Probability (p-value) |
Risk ratio |
95% CI Lower - Upper |
|
Age, >70 years Sex, female CEA, >5 ng/ml CA199, >37 U/ml DUPAN-II, >150U/ml NAC, yes PD, yes Blood loss, >1500ml Morphology, invasive Tumor size, >2cm Differentiation, moderately or poorly Infiltration, yes lymph duct venous perineural Tumor involvement, yes retroperitoneal choledochal duodenal portal vein Node metastasis, yes Regional (RLN) para-aortic (PALN) Cancer positive at surgical margin, proximal bile duct exposed area Curability, R1 Adjuvant chemotherapy, yes Chemotherapy for cancer recurrence, yes |
.936 .279 .440 .001 .119 .051 .461 .098 .000 .540 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .033 .000 .007 .000 .004 .041 .000 .010 .360 .001 |
1.016 1.222 1.188 1.911 1.501 0.232 1.155 1.788 1.609 1.139 2.860 3.726 4.358 3.654 2.853 1.404 2.018 1.762 3.705 2.779 3.337 4.838 2.146 .840 1.862 |
.690 - 1.496 .850 - 1.757 .767 - 1.842 1.324 - 2.759 .901 - 2.501 0.061 - 1.020 .788 - 1.693 .897 - 2.033 1.243 - 2.082 .752 - 1.752 1.858 - 4.403 2.417 - 5.746 2.425 - 7.835 2.286 - 5.841 1.885 - 4.320 1.029 - 1.917 1.520 - 2.679 1.168 - 2.658 2.460 - 5.580 1.632 - 4.731 1.052 - 10.588 2.684 - 8.721 1.199 - 3.842 .579 - 1.219 1.283 - 2.702 |
.258 .801 .389 .005 .062 .870 .013 .970 .131 .051 .570 .110 .198 .217 .101 .749 .099 .077 |
1.279 1.078 .839 2.195 1.727 1.068 2.206 1.011 .674 1.522 1.173 1.536 1.578 2.209 2.049 1.133 .670 1.539 |
.835 - 1.960 .600 - 1.937 .562 - 1.251 1.271 - 3.789 .973 - 3.065 .486 - 2.349 1.180 - 4.121 .578 - 1.768 .404 - 1.125 .997 - 2.322 .676 - 2.036 .908 - 2.600 .788 -3.158 .627 - 7.785 .870 - 4.823 .527 - 2.440 .416 - 1.078 .954 - 2.485 |
a) Overall survival. | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Univariate analysis | Multivariable analysis | |||||
Probability (p-value) |
Risk ratio |
95% CI Lower - Upper |
Probability (p-value) |
Risk ratio | 95% CI Lower - Upper |
|
Age, >70 years Sex, female jaundice, yes Total bilirubin, >2mg/dL ALP, >400U/ml CEA, >5 ng/ml CA19-9, >37 U/ml Blood loss, >1500mL Morphology, invasive Tumor size, >2cm Differentiation, moderately or poorly Infiltration, yes lymph duct venous perineural Depth, beyond subserosa Tumor invasion liver gallbladder pancreas duodenum portal vein hepatic artery Cholangitis of bile duct, yes Node metastasis, yes Regional (RLN) para-aortic (PALN) Cancer positive at surgical margin proximal bile duct exposed area distal bile duct Curability, R1 PBMJ, yes Adjuvant chemotherapy, yes Chemotherapy for cancer recurrence, yes |
.052 .984 .115 .210 .087 .040 .005 .008 .150 .229 .056 .008 .001 .000 .000 .710 .257 .026 .416 .002 .046 .026 .003 .049 .080 .000 .348 .005 .002 .078 .000 |
.564 1.003 1.740 1.460 1.649 2.128 2.222 2.163 1.974 1.438 1.712 2.390 3.640 5.376 2.283 1.096 1.276 1.696 1.350 2.215 2.532 2.042 2.254 2.215 1.643 7.039 1.611 2.156 5.256 1.632 3.158 |
.316 - 1.006 .739 - 1.362 .874 - 3.466 .807 - 2.461 .929 - 2.927 1.034 - 4.379 1.272 - 3.883 1.220 - 3.836 .781 - 4.989 .795 - 2.603 .986 - 2.975 1.252 - 4.561 1.711 - 7.744 2.290 - 12.619 1.452 - 3.590 .676 - 1.776 .837 - 1.946 1.066 - 2.699 .655 - 2.780 1.340 - 3.660 1.017 - 6.301 1.087 - 3.835 1.310 - 3.877 1.010 - 4.614 .943 - 2.862 3.205 - 15.458 .595 - 4.361 1.259 - 3.691 1.834 - 15.068 .947 - 2.811 1.821 - 5.477 |
.660 .003 .051 .025 .025 .004 .654 .169 .864 .922 .495 .255 .049 .006 .672 .140 .000 |
1.280 3.325 2.817 4.042 5.290 7.529 1.195 2.012 1.188 1.152 1.398 1.625 6.896 18.114 .776 2.851 5.438 |
.427 - 3.839 1.103 - 10.019 .996 - 7.968 1.191 - 13.718 1.240 - 22.71 1.930 - 29.374 .548 - 2.604 .743 - 5.449 .166 - 8.506 .068 - 19.435 .535 - 3.652 .705 - 3.745 1.008 - 61.629 2.339 - 140.733 .239 - 2.517 .708 - 11.473 2.400 - 12.320 |
b) Cancer-free survival. | ||||||
Univariate analysis | Multivariable analysis | |||||
Probability (p-value) |
Risk ratio |
95% CI Lower - Upper |
Probability (p-value) |
Risk ratio |
95% CI Lower - Upper |
|
Age, >70 years. Sex, female jaundice, yes Total bilirubin, >2mg/dL ALP, >400U/ml CEA, >5 ng/ml CA199, >37 U/ml Blood loss, >1500mL Morphology, invasive Tumor size, >2cm Differentiation, moderately or poorly Histologic infiltration, yes lymphatic venous perineural Depth, beyond subserosa Tumor invasion liver gallbladder pancreas duodenum portal vein hepatic artery Cholangitis of the proximal bile duct, yes Node metastasis, yes Regional (PLN) para-aortic (PALN) Cancer positive at surgical margin proximal bile duct exposed area distal bile duct Curability, R1 PBMJ, yes Adjuvant chemotherapy, yes Chemotherapy for cancer recurrence, yes |
.048 .563 .126 .434 .945 .105 .145 .056 .100 .118 .019 .009 .071 .001 .000 .863 .169 .007 .210 .001 .002 .008 .000 .001 .221 .000 .596 .048 .059 .249 .000 |
.544 .905 1.765 1.295 .978 1.854 1.561 1.455 2.436 1.642 1.996 2.485 2.760 4.165 2.646 .952 1.368 2.022 1.597 2.916 4.998 2.368 3.166 3.373 1.477 4.789 1.300 1.921 3.109 1.632 5.735 |
.298 - .994 .645 - 1.270 .853 - 3.652 .677 - 2.477 .524 - 1.826 .979 - 3.909 .858 - 2.838 .878 - 2.456 .844 - 7.034 .882 - 3.054 1.118 - 3.565 1.255 - 4.922 1.323 - 5.759 1.845 - 9.403 1.618 - 4.326 .545 - 1.665 .875 - 2.138 1.214 - 3.368 .769 - 3.317 1.536 - 5.535 1.813 - 13.781 1.248 - 4.491 1.769 - 5.667 1.626 - 6.999 .791 - 2.757 2.181 - 10.516 .493 - 3.425 1.003 - 3.024 .956 - 10.115 .786 - 2.530 3.147 - 10.450 |
.010 .110 .028 .350 .879 .097 .836 .321 .481 .013 .447 .242 .049 .000 |
3.662 2.027 3.352 1.704 .939 2.585 1.218 3.971 1.427 2.917 .577 2.551 2.763 12.944 |
1.370 - .3.661 1.143 - 9.831 1.560 - 8.792 .557 - 5.216 .418 - 2.109 .842 - 7.934 .190 - 7.823 .261 - 60.475 .531 - 3.836 1.258 - 6.765 .140 - 2.383 .530 - 12.260 1.005 - 7.597 4.640 - 36.104 |
a) Univariate analysis. | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RLN metastasis | probability (p-value) |
PALN metastasis | probability (p-value) |
|||||
negative (n=83) |
positive (n=98) |
negative (n=164) |
positive (n=17) |
|||||
Age (years) | 69.3±8.8 | 67.0±9.9 | .190 | 68.5±9.4 | 64.0±9.2 | .103 | ||
Gender, male/female | 47/36 | 44/54 | .846 | 91/73 | 9/8 | 1.0 | ||
Operation., DP/ PD/ TP | 36/44/3 | 24/73/1 | .009 | 56/106/2 | 4/13/0 | .588 | ||
CEA (ng/ml) | 14.6±86.5 | 7.7±24.1 | .884 | 6.8±20.5 | 50.6±189.8 | .886 | ||
CA199 (U/ml) | 449±2280 | 557±1130 | <.001 | 406±982 | 1473±4710 | .115 | ||
DUPAN-II (U/ml) | 543±2018 | 630±1188 | .004 | 569±1685 | 778±620 | .0012 | ||
Neoadjuvant chemotherapy, no/yes | 78/5 | 93/4 | .810 | 92/72 | 13/4 | .056 | ||
Morphology, Nodular/mixed/invasive/cystic/MPD |
14/1/40/26/2 | 27/1/68/2/0 | <.001 | 36/1/97/28/2 | 5/1/10/0/0 | .106 | ||
Histological differentiation, papillary/well/moderately/poorly/other |
1/19/52/5/6 | 1/23/58/12/4 | .379 | 2/39/90/23/10 | 1/5/9/2/0 | .887 | ||
Tumor size (cm) | 3.16±2.20 | 3.26±1.23 | .024 | 3.17±1.78 | 3.74±1.21 | .067 | ||
Tumor infiltration, no/yes Lymphatic duct Venous Perineural |
55/28 37/46 36/47 |
19/79 8/90 10/88 |
<.001 <.001 <.001 |
73/91 45/119 43/121 |
1/16 1/16 2/15 |
.125 .126 .0047 |
||
Extra-pancreatic involvement, no/yes Retro-pancreatic choledochal duodenal portal vein |
55/28 69/14 73/10 70/13 |
21/77 51/47 54/44 67/31 |
<.001 <.001 <.001 .022 |
75/89 113/51 116/48 126/38 |
0/17 6/11 10/7 10/7 |
<.001 .038 .436 .332 |
||
PALN metastasis, no/yes | 81/2 | 83/15 | .0037 | - | - | - | ||
R, 0/ 1 | 82/1 | 91/7 | .062 | 156/8 | 17/0 | <.001 | ||
Adjuvant chemotherapy, no/yes | 48/35 | 59/39 | .864 | 92/72 | 15/2 | .021 | ||
Cancer recurrence, no/yes | 49/34 | 15/83 | <.001 | 63/101 | 1/16 | .016 | ||
Recurrence-free Survival (days) | 1385±472 | 472±553 | <.001 | 948±1129 | 333±416 | <.002 | ||
Overall survival (days) | 1599±1275 | 815±802 | <.001 | 1235±1139 | 595±582 | .0028 | ||
b) Multivariate logistic regression analysis. | ||||||||
PLN | PALN | |||||||
Probability p-value |
Odds ratio | 95%CI lower | 95%CI upper |
Probability p-value |
Odds ratio | 95%CI lower | 95%CI upper | |
Op., PD | .363 | .260 | .014 | 4.719 | ||||
CA199, >37U/mL | .957 | 1.028 | .377 | 2.801 | ||||
Dupan-II, >150u/mL | .598 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .023 | 4.921 | 1.243 | 19.475 |
Morphology, invasive | .261 | 1.614 | .701 | 3.719 | ||||
Size, >20mm | .406 | 1.637 | .511 | 5.244 | ||||
Lymphatic invasion | .089 | 2.483 | .872 | 7.07 | ||||
Venous invasion | .884 | .887 | .176 | 4.458 | ||||
Perineural invasion | .104 | 3.222 | .786 | 13.217 | .141 | .2807 | .025 | 1.689 |
Extra-pancreatic involvement Retro-pancreatic |
.080 |
2.681 |
.888 |
8.091 |
.997 |
5.760 |
.001 |
16.355 |
Choledochal | .383 | 1.654 | .535 | 5.114 | .226 | 2.38 | .585 | 9.673 |
Duodenal | .189 | 2.376 | .654 | 8.627 | ||||
PALN metastasis, yes | .502 | 1.889 | .295 | 12.106 |
a) Univariate analysis. | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RLN metastasis | probability (p-value) |
PALN metastasis | probability (p-value) |
|||||
negative (n=71) |
positive (n=45) |
negative (n=106) |
positive (n=10) |
|||||
Age (years) | 69.8±10.6 | 66.4±12.3 | .092 | 69.5±10.2 | 58.2±17.3 | .027 | ||
Gender, male/female | 55/16 | 30/15 | .286 | 79/27 | 6/4 | .454 | ||
Operation, PD/HPD/Hepatectomy | 1944/4/23 | 2026/7/12 | .238 | 66/7/33 | 2004/4/2 | .0092 | ||
Total bilirubin (mg/dl) | 1.49±2.40 | 1.45±1.39 | .120 | 1.51±2.14 | 1.10±0.40 | .593 | ||
Alkaline phosphatase (U/ml) | 475±438 | 634±540 | .037 | 521±477 | 702±562 | .196 | ||
CEA (ng/ml) | 6.0±24.3 | 3.8±3.6 | .089 | 5.3±19.8 | 3.0±2.2 | .928 | ||
CA199 (U/ml) | 4394±33262 | 502±995 | .0019 | 3075±26940 | 324±729 | .310 | ||
Jaundice, no/yes | 20/51 | 10/35 | .677 | 28/78 | 3/7 | .713 | ||
PBMJ, no/yes | 69/2 | 43/2 | 1 | 103/3 | 9/1 | .809 | ||
Morphology, Papillary/nodular/invasive/IPNB | 15/31/24/1 | 3/6/36/0 | .300 | 17/7/81/1 | 0/0/10/0/0 | .362 | ||
Cholangitis of the proximal bile duct, no/yes | 52/19 | 31/14 | .484 | 81/25 | 6/4 | .078 | ||
Histological differentiation, papillary/well/moderately/poorly/other |
12/31/19/9 | 2/19/19/5 | .134 | 13/43/36/14 | 1/5/3/1/0 | .535 | ||
Tumor size (cm) | 1.56±1.55 | 2.34±1.69 | .036 | 1.72±1.57 | 3.54±1.62 | .0006 | ||
Depth of invasion, m, fm/ss/se/si | 16/35/12/8 | 1/23/13/8 | .056 | 15/49/21/13 | 0/5/2/3 | .252 | ||
Tumor infiltration, no/yes Lymphatic duct Venous Perineural |
37/34 31/40 30/41 |
5/40 6/39 6/39 |
<.001 .001 .002 |
41/65 37/69 35/71 |
0/10 0/10 1/9 |
.033 .052 .238 |
||
Extra-pancreatic involvement, no/yes liver gallbladder pancreas duodenum portal vein hepatic artery |
63/8 68/3 52/19 63/8 68/3 70/1 |
38/7 43/2 19/26 3510 39/6 44/1 |
.017 .055 .0005 .196 .163 .333 |
87/19 104/2 67/39 88/18 100/6 104/2 |
6/4 6/4 3/7 10/0 7/3 10/0 |
.201 <.001 .029 .358 .011 .907 |
||
Number of node metastasis | 0.82±4.09 | 1.94±1.56 | <.001 | 1.17±3.59 | 1.96±2.22 | .226 | ||
PALN metastasis, no/yes | 69/2 | 37/8 | .0139 | - | - | - | ||
Cancer positive at cutting edge, no/yes bile duct exposed area |
58/13 68/3 |
35/10 38/7 |
.578 .079 |
87/19 100/6 |
6/4 6/4 |
.202 .002 |
||
R, 0/ 1 | 57/14 | 30/15 | .212 | 82/24 | 4/6 | .029 | ||
Cancer recurrence, no/yes | 49/34 | 15/83 | <.001 | 67/39 | 1/9 | .00034 | ||
Recurrence-free Survival (days) | 14195±1105 | 787±942 | <.001 | 1203±1096 | 836±941 | .171 | ||
Overall survival (days) | 1605±1083 | 1059±943 | .0014 | 1411±1058 | 1206±1132 | .4 | ||
b) Multivariate logistic regression analysis. | ||||||||
RLN metastasis | PALN metastasis | |||||||
Probability p-value |
Odds ratio | 95%CI lower | 95%CI upper |
Probability p-value |
Odds ratio | 95%CI lower | 95%CI upper | |
Age, >70 | .161 | .182 | .017 | 1.969 | ||||
ALP, >400U/ml | .694 | .777 | .221 | 2.731 | ||||
CA199, >37U/mL | .177 | 2.345 | .68 | 8.084 | ||||
Op., PD | .286 | 4.345 | .292 | 64.649 | ||||
Size, >20mm | .876 | 1.113 | .292 | 4.241 | .156 | 4.38 | .569 | 33.702 |
Lymphatic invasion | .016 | 5.561 | 1.376 | 22.468 | .997 | 2.512 | .001 | 100.678 |
Venous invasion | .361 | .487 | .104 | 2.282 | ||||
Perineural invasion | .032 | 5.094 | 1.152 | 22.523 | ||||
Organ involvement Liver Gallbladder Pancreas Portal vein |
.026 .002 |
4.582 7.204 |
2. 123 3.455 |
24.448 42.159 |
.290 .143 .204 |
3.325 7.843 2.788 |
.359 .497 .573 |
30.797 123.835 13.560 |
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