preprints.org > environmental and earth sciences > environmental science > doi: 10.20944/preprints202410.0433.v1 (registering DOI)

Preprint Essay Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 6 October 2024 / Approved: 7 October 2024 / Online: 7 October 2024 (08:04:14 CEST)

This research developed and evaluated a machine learning model for predicting thunderstorm frequency, in the Wa region of Ghana, with a focus on its impact for agricultural planning and management. Using a range of meteorological variables including Total Column Water(TCW), Total Column Rain Water(TCRW), and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), the research aim to identify important predictors of thunderstorm occurrence and quantify their relative importance. A Random Forest algorithm was employed to create the predictive model, which was trained and tested on historical weather data. The model demonstrated good predictive capabilities, explaining approximate 72.6% of the variance in thunderstorm occurrences, with a mean absolute error of 2.34 storms and an index of agreement of 0.926. Key findings showed the importance of atmospheric moisture content, particularly TCW and TCRW , in predicting thunderstorm frequency. Atmospheric instability measures, such as CAPE, played a secondary but important role. The model showed strength in capturing overall trends in thunderstorm frequencies but exhibited some limitations in predicting extreme events. The research contributes to the field of meteorology by demonstrating the effectiveness of machine learning techniques in capturing complex atmospheric interactions leading to thunderstorm formation. It also provides a framework for linking thunderstorm predictions to potential agricultural impacts, enhancing the practical applicability of weather forecasting in the agricultural sector. The study lays the groundwork for more sophisticated, localized weather predictions systems that can greatly benefit agricultural planning and broader weather dependent activities in the region. Future research dimensions include exploring advanced feature engineering, integrating temporal and spatial analysis, and developing agricultural impacts models to further enhance the practical utility of thunderstorm predictions.

Climate science; crop productivity; Machine learning; Modeling; Climate Change

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science

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