Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea

Jinseok Kim; Youjung Jang; Hyejung Hu; Younha Kim; Bomi Kim; Seung-Jick Yoo; Jae-Bum Lee; Seung-Hee Eun; Sung-Chul Hong; Hyungah Jin; Jung-Hun Woo

doi:10.20944/preprints202410.0923.v1

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preprints.org > environmental and earth sciences > atmospheric science and meteorology > doi: 10.20944/preprints202410.0923.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea

Version 1 : Received: 11 October 2024 / Approved: 11 October 2024 / Online: 14 October 2024 (05:39:25 CEST)

How to cite: Kim, J.; Jang, Y.; Hu, H.; Kim, Y.; Kim, B.; Yoo, S.-J.; Lee, J.-B.; Eun, S.-H.; Hong, S.-C.; Jin, H.; Woo, J.-H. Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea. Preprints 2024, 2024100923. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.0923.v1 Kim, J.; Jang, Y.; Hu, H.; Kim, Y.; Kim, B.; Yoo, S.-J.; Lee, J.-B.; Eun, S.-H.; Hong, S.-C.; Jin, H.; Woo, J.-H. Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea. Preprints 2024, 2024100923. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.0923.v1

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MDPI and ACS Style

Kim, J.; Jang, Y.; Hu, H.; Kim, Y.; Kim, B.; Yoo, S.-J.; Lee, J.-B.; Eun, S.-H.; Hong, S.-C.; Jin, H.; Woo, J.-H. Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea. Preprints 2024, 2024100923. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.0923.v1

APA Style

Kim, J., Jang, Y., Hu, H., Kim, Y., Kim, B., Yoo, S. J., Lee, J. B., Eun, S. H., Hong, S. C., Jin, H., & Woo, J. H. (2024). Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.0923.v1

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kim, J., Hyungah Jin and Jung-Hun Woo. 2024 "Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.0923.v1

Abstract

When predicting the health impacts of PM2.5 from future air quality changes, it’s crucial to consider both air quality improvements and population aging. This study divided future emission scenarios into a Base and Control scenario to project air quality from 2015 to 2030 and assess health outcomes. The GUIDE model, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), was used to estimate future emissions, while the CMAQ (Chemical Transport Model) and BenMAP (Health Impact Model) evaluated health impacts resulting from changes in air quality in Korea. The study focused on the impact of population aging on future health outcomes. Both scenarios showed improved PM2.5 concentrations, with the Control scenario seeing more substantial improvements due to stronger policy measures. When applying current age patterns, health impacts decreased as PM2.5 concentrations. However, when considering future population aging, health impacts increased despite improved air quality. This finding suggests that, although PM2.5 concentrations are expected to decline, the increasing proportion of elderly individuals will exacerbate health risks. Therefore, accounting for aging population trends is essential when studying the health impacts of future air quality changes.

Keywords

Emission Scenarios; Health Impacts; PM2.5 Concentration; Cardio-vascular; aging society; Future air quality changes

Subject

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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