Version 1
: Received: 14 October 2024 / Approved: 14 October 2024 / Online: 14 October 2024 (14:50:25 CEST)
How to cite:
Ogurtsov, M. Evidence of the Long-Term Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Climate of the Northern Hemisphere. Preprints2024, 2024101042. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.1042.v1
Ogurtsov, M. Evidence of the Long-Term Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Climate of the Northern Hemisphere. Preprints 2024, 2024101042. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.1042.v1
Ogurtsov, M. Evidence of the Long-Term Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Climate of the Northern Hemisphere. Preprints2024, 2024101042. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.1042.v1
APA Style
Ogurtsov, M. (2024). Evidence of the Long-Term Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Climate of the Northern Hemisphere. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.1042.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Ogurtsov, M. 2024 "Evidence of the Long-Term Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Climate of the Northern Hemisphere" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.1042.v1
Abstract
Six up-to-date reconstructions of hemispheric and global temperature and two indices of volcanic activity were analyzed using both Fourier and wavelet approaches over time intervals up to 1500 years. A cyclicity with a period of 188-250 years was found present in both Northern Hemisphere temperature and volcanic activity. These cycles were found to be negatively correlated, with the maximum correlation coefficient being reached when volcanic variations lead temperature vari-ations by 20 years. The combined probability of the null hypothesis – the proposition that in the Northern Hemisphere there is no real association between the bicentennial change in volcanic activity and temperature and that the revealed correlations arose purely by chance – was found to be no more than 1.2×10-2 over the entire time interval and less than 10-2 over the time interval AD 1270-1980. The effect was weaker in global temperature and was not detected in the Southern Hemisphere. Possible origins of the identified bicentennial correlations are discussed and guidelines for further research are proposed.
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
