Preprint
Article

The Development of the Seismic Forecasting System for the Vrancea AreaThe Development of the Seismic Forecasting System for the Vrancea Area

Altmetrics

Downloads

5

Views

5

Comments

0

Submitted:

17 November 2024

Posted:

19 November 2024

You are already at the latest version

Alerts
Abstract
The NIEP (National Institute of Earth Physics) monitors and analyzes seismicity in Romania. Over time, the monitoring stations equipped with seismic equipment have become multifunctional with new devices for measuring gas emissions, the magnetic field, the telluric field, solar radiation, etc. This made it possible to introduce a seismic forecasting system, which is intended to extend the alert time of the warning system based solely on seismic data. The realization of an OEF (Operational Earthquake Forecasting) aims to extend the warning time from 25-30 seconds before an earthquake manifests its effects with a magnitude of more than 4.8R to several hours or even days. The AFROS project (PCE119/4.01.2021) introduced fundamental research studies in the development of the OEF system. The results are now public in the form of real-time analysis of radon and CO2 emissions on the page http://afros.infp.ro/AFROS.php?link=dategeofizice. The monitored area is Vrancea because it generates the most destructive earthquakes in Romania, with effects in neighboring countries (Bulgaria, Ukraine, and Moldova). The structure of the monitoring network and the methods used can be adapted to other seismic zones depending on their particularities. The data acquisition includes analog signals (e.g., magnetic field, well temperature), digital data (e.g., radon, CO2, well water level), and from other sources (e.g., VLF receivers, Kp geomagnetic factor from NOAA). All data ends up in a database that can be accessed through an API and the result will be in JSON format (https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/28kv3gsgcz/2). The methods used include the detection of events by exceeding certain thresholds, STA/LTA type data analysis, and analysis of seismic bulletins (parameters a, b from the Gutenberg Richter law). In each case, the application of these methods involves particularities that make the monitoring network a novelty in activities of this type. The experimental results indicate the possibility of using the parameter b from the Gutenberg Richter law and the emission of gases in the real-time seismic forecast. This was known from previous analyses carried out on data series on the periods in which earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 4.5R occurred. The novelty is that currently this is done continuously and the results are public.
Keywords: 
Subject: Environmental and Earth Sciences  -   Environmental Science
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
Prerpints.org logo

Preprints.org is a free preprint server supported by MDPI in Basel, Switzerland.

Subscribe

© 2024 MDPI (Basel, Switzerland) unless otherwise stated