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Uncertainty, Risk and Opaque Stock Markets

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Submitted:

18 December 2024

Posted:

19 December 2024

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Abstract
This study examines how uncertainty and global risk affect financial markets in emerging economies, focusing on foreign investment, CDS spreads, exchange rates, and stock return volatility. Using over 8.6 million ticker-transaction observations and structural vector autoregression (VAR) models, the research finds that increases in Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) significantly reduce foreign net buys, more than global market volatility (VIX). While global volatility drives CDS spreads, these spreads influence exchange rates, causing currency depreciation. The findings highlight the interconnectedness of uncertainty, global risk, and market instability, offering insights for managing risks in opaque markets and improving financial stability.
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Subject: Business, Economics and Management  -   Finance
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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