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Article

Analysis of Covid -19 Data Based on Modelling and Descriptive Statistical Approach

This version is not peer-reviewed.

Submitted:

27 December 2024

Posted:

30 December 2024

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Abstract
This file describes a model called the SEQIRP model [8] which is a modified SIR model and it has been proposed by Dr Pabel Shahrear, S. M. Saydur Rahman, Md Mahadi Hasan Nahid from Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Bangladesh which uses some basic parameters of Covid – 19 to predict the future of Covid 19 situation. We have used the data from 01 December 2021 to January 05, 2022, to predict the next peak point of COVID-19 in the next 250 days from December 01, 2021. Here we calculated the Basic Reproduction Number R0 by using Next-generation matrix, and to state the result from the model, we have used MATLAB to simulate our analysis by using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta (RK4) method and validate the results using fourth-order polynomial regression. Finally, we have got our prediction for Covid – 19. After getting the result we have taken the data from April 1, 2021, to February 28, 2022, and do a statistical analysis by using descriptive statistics and a histogram by using Microsoft Excel, which will validate the accuracy of our model. We have analyzed the SEQIRP model [8] with newly available data and tried to predict the next wave of COVID-19 in Bangladesh, and then we tried to validate the result with statistical analysis to achieve the model’s accuracy. Finally, we can claim the usefulness of the model in Bangladesh that, in the future, should we use the model to determine the wave of COVID-19 or not. This result of our model represents the effect of Covid 19 in Bangladesh.
Keywords: 
Subject: 
Biology and Life Sciences  -   Life Sciences
Preprints on COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
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