This paper explores the feasibility of applying Bayesian statistical methods to study the distortion patterns induced by carburizing heat treatment. By establishing posterior and predictive distribution models for torsion bar dimensions, we aim to accurately understand and predict the expansion behavior, thus enhancing control over carburizing-induced dimensional changes. Bayesian methods allow for the integration of prior knowledge and real-time data, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the distortion phenomena. This approach not only improves the precision of dimensional predictions but also contributes to optimizing the overall manufacturing process, ensuring that the torsion bars meet the rigorous standards required for high-performance applications in demanding industrial environments.