The circular economy is based on maintaining a circular flow of resources. Policymakers face difficulties in balancing national security and circular economy aspects in the field of mineral resources policy. With a uniquely expanded input-output table, this study estimates the final destination of several critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, yttrium, lanthanum, cerium, neodymium and dysprosium) and base metals (iron, copper and aluminum) in the Japanese economy for 2015. Our model shows quite a good similarity between the estimated composition and the actual data of products. The results reveal a detailed distribution of critical minerals and indicate prioritized implementation for creating and maintaining a circular flow of critical minerals. Developed decision flow guidance provides a comprehensive approach to national security and circular economy aspects for policymakers. For further actions, inclusive indicator development is required for policymakers to support the determination of implementation possibilities from social and technological aspects.