There is a skin allergy epidemic in the western world, and the rate of deterioration has increased significantly in the past 5-10 years. It is probable that there are many environmental contributing factors, yet some studies have linked it primarily to the rise in the use of synthetic chemical ingredients in modern cosmetics. Our challenge, therefore, was to find a mechanism to determine the effect these substances have on skin health, and whether they really are a primary cause of long term damage to the skin. The first problem is the lack of any definitive way to measure skin health. Motivated by the overwhelming evidence for a link between deficient gut flora and ill health, we decided to look at whether our skin microbiota could similarly be used as an indicator of skin health. Our research illustrates how it is microbiota diversity alone that can predict whether skin is healthy or not, after we revealed a complete lack of conclusive findings linking the presence or abundance of particular species of microbe to skin problems. This phenomenon is replicated throughout nature, where high biodiversity always leads to healthy ecosystems. ‘Caveman’ skin, untouched by modern civilisation, was far different to ‘western’ skin and displayed unprecedented levels of bacterial diversity. The less exposed communities were to western practices, the higher the skin diversity, which is clear evidence of an environmental factor in the developed world damaging skin. For the first time we propose benchmark values of diversity against which we can measure skin to determine how healthy it is. This gives us the ability to be able to predict which people are more likely to be prone to skin ailments, and start to test whether cosmetic ingredients and products are a main cause of the skin allergy epidemic.

A catastrophic loss of microbial biodiversity on the skin has led to alarming increase in the prevalence of allergies and long-term damage to the skin, which could also have damaging knock on effects to overall health. This study uses 50 human participants, to obtain an average (benchmark) value for the biodiversity of ‘healthy’ western skin, which is crucial in updating our 2017 skin health measuring mechanism to use standardised methodology. Previous work with a larger sample size was unsatisfactory for use as a benchmark due to its use of different and outdated diversity indices. We also investigated the effect of age and sex, two known skin microbiome affecting factors. Although no statistical significance is seen for age- and sex- related changes in diversity, there appear to be changes related to age which elaborates on previous work which used larger, more general age ranges. Our study indicates adults age 28-37 have highest diversity, and age 48-57 the lowest. Crucially, because of this study we are now able to update the skin health measuring mechanism from our 2017 work. This will aid diagnostic assessment of susceptibility to cutaneous conditions or diseases, and treatment. Testing any human subject will be rapidly improved by obtaining future benchmark diversity values for any age, sex, body site and area of residence, to which they can be compared. This improvement means we can also more accurately investigate the ultimate question: What factors in the western world are a main cause of the skin allergy epidemic? This could lead to future restriction of certain synthetic chemicals or products found to be particularly harmful to the skin.

We introduce the Transformation Flower Approach (TFA), a Theory of Change that attends to multiple value creation and institutional change as a dual design challenge. We highlight how the TFA integrates social scientific theories and models relevant for transformative change (in particular focusing on pathways, leverage points, governance, power, and values) and demonstrate its practical value by an application to the ongoing transformation of the Dutch food system. By providing a holistic, transdisciplinary and practically relevant approach that aims to support new social contract formation, the TFA goes beyond other transformative change approaches. Based on the notion of pathways, it offers a toolbox that aids in working towards desired futures, involving both incumbents and challengers in an effort to harness untapped yet proximal potentials in a forward-looking way. By embracing an innovation approach, it not only promises to circumvent resistance to change, but also serves as a step-by-step approach to identify options for multiple value creation and effective cooperation. We demonstrate the analytical and practical value of the TFA by discussing action perspectives at various levels and scales in the context of the Dutch food system transition, including (1) area-oriented approaches, (2) acceleration agendas for specific transformation pathways, and (3) actor-specific transformation flowers. In developing these, we emphasize the importance of interdependencies between leverage points. Our approach helps to identify opportunities to link transformative options (the what), actors (the who) and levers (the how) in dynamic interaction to embark on transformative pathways.