Footprints are powerful indicators for evaluating the impact of the bioeconomy of a country on environmental goods, domestically and abroad. In this study, we apply a hybrid approach combining a Multi-Regional Input-Output model and land use modelling to compute the agricultural land footprint (aLF). Furthermore, we added information on land-use change to the analysis and allocated land conversion to specific commodities. The German case study shows that the aLF abroad is larger by a factor of 2.5 to 3 than the aLF in Germany. In 2005 and 2010, conversion of natural and semi-natural land-cover types abroad allocated to Germany due to import increases was 2.5 times higher than the global average. Import increases to Germany slowed down in 2015 and 2020, reducing land conversion attributed to the German bioeconomy to the global average. The case study shows that the applied land footprint provides clear and meaningful information for policymakers and other stakeholders. The presented methodological approach can be applied to other countries and regions covered in the underlying database EXIOBASE. It can be adapted, also for an assessment of other ecosystem functions, such as water or soil fertility.

There is a skin allergy epidemic in the western world, and the rate of deterioration has increased significantly in the past 5-10 years. It is probable that there are many environmental contributing factors, yet some studies have linked it primarily to the rise in the use of synthetic chemical ingredients in modern cosmetics. Our challenge, therefore, was to find a mechanism to determine the effect these substances have on skin health, and whether they really are a primary cause of long term damage to the skin. The first problem is the lack of any definitive way to measure skin health. Motivated by the overwhelming evidence for a link between deficient gut flora and ill health, we decided to look at whether our skin microbiota could similarly be used as an indicator of skin health. Our research illustrates how it is microbiota diversity alone that can predict whether skin is healthy or not, after we revealed a complete lack of conclusive findings linking the presence or abundance of particular species of microbe to skin problems. This phenomenon is replicated throughout nature, where high biodiversity always leads to healthy ecosystems. ‘Caveman’ skin, untouched by modern civilisation, was far different to ‘western’ skin and displayed unprecedented levels of bacterial diversity. The less exposed communities were to western practices, the higher the skin diversity, which is clear evidence of an environmental factor in the developed world damaging skin. For the first time we propose benchmark values of diversity against which we can measure skin to determine how healthy it is. This gives us the ability to be able to predict which people are more likely to be prone to skin ailments, and start to test whether cosmetic ingredients and products are a main cause of the skin allergy epidemic.

Forest carbon sequestration is a widely accepted natural climate solution, however, methods to determine net carbon offsets are limited to commercial carbon proxies and CO2 eddy covariance research. Non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHG) (e.g., CH4, N2O) receive less attention in the context of forests, in part, due to emphasis on CO2 and the operational requirements and cost for three-gas eddy covariance platforms. In this study, Howland forest flux tower (CO2, CH4) and soil flux data (CO2, CH4, N2O), representing net emission reductions, are linked to their respective social costs to estimate commercial revenue if sold as a GHG social cost forest offset product (GHG-SCF). Estimated annual revenue for GHG-SCF products, applicable to realization of a Green New Deal, range from 120,000 covering the site area of 557 acres in 2021, to 12,000,000 for extrapolation to 40,000 acres in 2040, assuming a 3% discount rate. The Howland Forest CO2 flux record for two adjacent towers is compared to California Air Resources Board forest carbon proxy data for compliance sequestration offsets, the only project site where these approaches overlap. Overcrediting, incomplete carbon accounting with annual errors of up to 2,256%, inadequate third-party verification, and limited application to non-CO2 GHG’s are established. In contrast, direct measurement of one or more GHG’s offers new forest products and revenue incentives to restore and conserve forests worldwide.

High-resolution forecasting of vegetation type shifts may prove essential for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of future climate change on bird populations. Here, we used the US Forest Service Ecological Response Unit (ERU) classification to develop and assess vegetation-based breeding habitat profiles for eight owl species occurring in foothills and mountains of the southwestern US. Shifts in mapped habitat were forecast using an ecosystem vulnerability model based on the pre-1990 climate envelopes of ERUs and the A1B moderate IPCC emission scenario of future climate. For five of the eight owl species, regional breeding habitat extent was projected to decline by at least 60% by 2090. Three species, the boreal owl (Aegolius funereus; at the trailing edge of its distribution), flammulated owl (Psiloscops flammeolus), and northern pygmy-owl (Glaucidium gnoma) were projected to experience the steepest habitat-loss rates, or 85%, 85%, and 76%, respectively. Projected vegetation shifts overlaid with well-documented flammulated owl breeding populations showed complete or near complete loss of habitat by 2090 in areas of montane forest currently supporting dense aggregations of owl territories. Generalist or lower-elevation owl species were predicted to be less impacted, while for the whiskered screech-owl (Megascops trichopsis), the contraction of current habitat was nearly offset by a projected northward expansion. In general, the results of this study suggest high exposure to climate change impacts for upper-elevation forest owls of semi-arid southwestern North America. Long distance migration and low natal philopatry may prove important to some montane owl populations for adapting to regional loss of habitat.