Continuous and uncontrolled extraction of groundwater often creates tremendous pressure on groundwater levels. As a part of the sustainable planning and effective management of water resources, it is crucial to assess the existing as well as future groundwater level (GWL) condition. In the current study, an attempt was made to model and forecast GWL using artificial neural networks (ANN) and multivariate time series models. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARIMA incorporating exogenous variables (ARIMAX) were adopted as the time series models. Kushtia district in Bangladesh was selected as the case study area, and GWL data of five monitoring wells in the study are used to demonstrate the modeling exercise. Rainfall was taken as the exogeneous variable to explore whether its inclusion enhanced the performance of GWL forecasting using the developed models. The performance of each time series and ANN model was assessed based on various model evaluation criteria. It was evident from the results that the multivariate ARIMAX model (SSE of 15.361) performed better than the univariate ARIMA model with an SSE of 17.217 for GWL forecasting. This demonstrates the fact that the multivariate time series models generated enhanced forecasting of GWL compared to the univariate time series models. When comparing the time series and ANN models, it was found that the ANN-based model outperformed the time series models with the enhanced forecasting accuracy (SSE of 9.894). Results also exhibit a significant correlation coefficient value R of 0.995 (ANN 6-8-1) for the existing and predicted data. The current study conclusively proves the superiority of ANN over the time series models for the enhanced forecasting of GWL in the study area. Thus, the ANN approach was not only carried out for model building and simulation but also to provide a valuable tool for managing water resources amidst changing environmental conditions.

The COVID-19 epidemic and the measures adopted to contain it have had a significant impact on energy patterns throughout the world. The pandemic and movement restrictions led to unpredictable fluctuations in power systems demand and the fuel price for a delayed period. Monkeypox, another viral disease, appeared during the post-COVID period. It is assumed that the outbreak of monkeypox is unlikely due to the implication of preventive measures experienced by COVID-19. At the same time, the probability of an epidemic cannot be blindly overlooked. This paper aims to examine and analyze historical data to look at how much petroleum fuel was used for generating power and how the price of petroleum fuel changed over seven years, from January 2016 to August 2022. This period covers the time before the COVID-19 pandemic, during the pandemic, and after the pandemic. Several time-series forecasting models, including all four benchmark methods (Mean, Naïve, Drift, and Snaïve), Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), Exponential Smoothing (ETS), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods have been applied for both fuel consumption and price prediction. The best forecasting method for fuel price and consumption has been identified among these methods. The paper also utilizes the ARIMAX model by incorporating multiple exogenous variables, such as monthly mean temperature, mean fuel price, and mileage of vehicles traveling during a certain period of pandemic lock-down. It will assist in capturing the non-smooth and stochastic pattern of fuel consumption and price due to the pandemic by separating the seasonal influence and thus provide a prediction of the consumption pattern in the event of any future pandemic.