Introduction – Elections are a cornerstone of democratic societies, enabling citizens to express
their preferences and shape the direction of their governments. Economic conditions, political
dynamics, and social factors often play pivotal roles in influencing voter behavior and
determining electoral outcomes, making elections a key area of study in understanding
governance and policy change.
Objectives – This study examines how key economic factors like inflation, unemployment, and
poverty influence election results in Ghana. It also looks at how these economic elements shape
voter choices and predicts the possible outcomes of the 2024 general elections using past data.
Methodology – The study used historical economic and political data from 1992 to 2023,
applying statistical models like ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) to
forecast future election outcomes. Economic indicators such as inflation and unemployment
were included to study their relationship with voter behavior.
Findings - The results show that economic factors significantly impact voter turnout and party
vote share. High inflation and unemployment rates tend to reduce voter support for incumbent
parties. The model also predicts possible outcomes for the 2024 election based on these
economic trends.
Conclusion and Recommendation – The study concludes that improving economic conditions,
such as reducing unemployment, could positively influence electoral outcomes for incumbents.
It is recommended that policymakers focus on stabilizing the economy to enhance electoral
success.