Dengue fever is a persistent public health issue in tropical regions, including Vietnam, where climate variability plays a crucial role in disease transmission dynamics. This study focuses on developing climate-based machine learning models to forecast dengue outbreaks in Ba Ria Vung Tau (BRVT) province, Vietnam, using meteorological data from 2003 to 2022. We utilized four predictive models—Negative Binomial Regression (NBR), Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—to predict weekly dengue incidence. Key climate variables, including temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed, were integrated into these models, with lagged variables included to capture delayed climatic effects on dengue transmission. The NBR model demonstrated the best performance in terms of predictive accuracy, achieving the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared to other models. The inclusion of lagged climate variables significantly enhanced the model’s ability to predict dengue cases. SARIMAX and LSTM models, although effective in capturing seasonal trends, struggled with overfitting and failed to accurately predict short-term outbreaks. XGBoost exhibited moderate predictive power but was sensitive to overfitting, particularly without fine-tuning. Our findings confirm that climate-based machine learning models, particularly the NBR model, offer valuable tools for forecasting dengue outbreaks in BRVT. However, improving the models’ ability to predict short-term peaks remains a challenge. The integration of meteorological data into early warning systems is crucial for public health authorities to plan timely and effective interventions. This research contributes to the growing body of literature on climate-based disease forecasting and underscores the need for further model refinement to address the complexities of dengue transmission in highly endemic regions.

Accurate agricultural commodity price models enable efficient allocation of limited natural resources, leading to improved sustainability in agriculture. Because of climate change, price volatility and uncertainty for the sector are expected to increase in the future, increasing the need for improved price modeling. With the emergence of machine learning (ML) algorithms, novel tools are now available to enhance the modeling of agricultural commodity prices. This research uses both univariate and multivariate ML techniques to perform probabilistic price prediction modelling for the Canadian beef industry, taking into account beef production, commodity market, and international trade features to enhance accuracy. We apply multivariate algorithms by using support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and adaboost (AB) and univariate algorithms by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors (SARIMAX). We apply these models to monthly fed steer price data between January 2005 and September 2023 and compare predicted prices with observed prices using several validation metrics. The outcomes indicate that both random forest (RF) and adaboost (AB) in multivariate modeling show superior performance in accurately predicting Alberta fed steer prices in comparison to other algorithms. To better account for the variance of the best model performance, we subsequently adopted a probabilistic approach by considering uncertainty in our best-selected ML model. The beef industry can use these improved price models to minimize resource waste and inefficiency in the sector and improve the long-term sustainability prospects for beef producers in Canada.

Globalization and industrialization have significantly disturbed the environmental ecosystem, leading to critical challenges such as global warming, extreme weather events, and water scarcity. Forecasting temperature trends is crucial for enhancing the resilience and quality of life in smart sustainable cities, enabling informed decision-making and proactive urban planning. This research specifically targets Ahmedabad city in India and employs the Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous factors (SARIMAX) model to forecast temperatures over a ten-year horizon using two decades of real-time temperature data. The stationarity of the dataset was confirmed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method helped identify the optimal seasonal parameters of the model, ensuring a balance between fidelity and predictive accuracy. The model achieved an RMSE of 1.0265, indicating high accuracy within the typical range for urban temperature forecasting. This robust measure of error underscores the model’s precision in predicting temperature deviations, which is particularly relevant for urban planning and environmental management. The findings provide city planners and policymakers with valuable insights and tools for preempting adverse environmental impacts, marking a significant step towards operational efficiency and enhanced governance in future smart urban ecosystems. Future work may extend the model's applicability to broader geographical areas and incorporate additional environmental variables to refine predictive accuracy further.