Objectives To develop and validate a prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality among adult patients critically ill with COVID-19 in the UK. Design Observational cohort study. Setting 287 adult critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, of which 260 admitted at least one eligible patient. Participants 10,933 patients with confirmed COVID-19 of whom 10,401 were eligible (excluding 532 patients with a duration of critical care less than 24 hours and 1 patient with unknown 28-day outcome): 8,666 development (March-April 2020) and 1,735 temporal validation (May-August 2020). Main outcome measures 28-day in-hospital mortality from start of critical care. Results Two models were developed using 14 patient level predictors selected from 30 candidate predictors, with and without adjustment for calendar time. In the temporal validation data, the model discrimination was maintained (c index 0.78) but calibration was poor, particularly for the model not adjusted for calendar time (ratio of observed to predicted mortality 0.74 versus 0.88 for the model adjusted for calendar time). Conclusions We developed and validated a prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality for patients critically ill with COVID-19. Although absolute predictions were inaccurate due to changing outcomes, the models will support risk-adjustment in analyses and monitoring changes in risk-adjusted outcome over time.

The goal of this paper is to contribute the perspective of a systems engineer to the effort to fight pandemics. The availability of low latency case data and effectiveness of social distancing suggest there is sufficient control for successful smoothing and targeting almost any desired level of low or high cases and immunity. This control proceeds from spontaneous public reaction to caseloads and news as well as government mediated recommendations and orders. We simulate multi-step and intermittent-with-feedback partial unlock of social distancing for rapidly-spreading moderate-mortality epidemics and pandemics similar to COVID-19. Optimized scenarios reduce total cases and therefore deaths typically 8% and up to 30% by controlling overshoot as groups cross the herd immunity threshold, or lower thresholds to manage medical resources and provide economic relief. We analyze overshoot and provide guidance on how to damp it. However, we find overshoot damping, whether from expert planning or natural public self-isolation, increases the likelihood of transition to an endemic disease. An SIR model is used to evaluate scenarios that are intended to function over a wide variety of parameters. The end result is not a case trajectory prediction, but a prediction of which strategies produce near-optimal results over a wide range of epidemiological and social parameters. Overshoot damping perversely increases the chance a pathogen will transition to an endemic disease, so we briefly describe the undershoot conditions that promote transition to endemic status.

It is important to be able to detect and differentiate between distinct porcine enteric coronaviruses that can cause similar diseases. However, the existence of naturally occurring recombinant coronaviruses such as swine enteric coronavirus (SeCoV) can give misleading results with currently used diagnostic methods. Therefore, we have developed and validated three duplex real-time quantitative RT-PCR assays for the simultaneous detection of, and differentiation between, porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) and SeCoV. Transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) is also detected by two out of these three assays. In addition, a novel triplex assay was set up that was able to detect and differentiate between these alphacoronaviruses and the porcine deltacoronavirus (PDCoV). The validated assays have low limits of detection, close to 100% efficiency and were able to correctly identify the presence of PEDV and SeCoV in 55 field samples, while 20 samples of other pathogens did not give a positive result. Implementing one or more of these multiplex assays into the routine diagnostic surveillance for PEDV will ensure that the presence of SeCoV, TGEV and PDCoV will not go unnoticed.

Research on the chemical mechanism and reciprocal behavior of the coronavirus relate to living organisms, engaging in the give and take of electrochemical mediators, is a very important, controversial and vital issue. What we should accept is the chemical identity of this scenario, and not preferably a characteristic of a biological system. This chemical reaction should be familiar, referring to the theory of chemical pathways involved in DNA/proteins in the body against aggressive guests (such as viruses). From the point of view of a chemist, this simple reaction is nothing more than an oxidation-reduction reaction (redox-stress signaling) which conducted and carried out by coronavirus in a biointerface medium. Thereby, oxidizing as well as reducing reagents should be very constructive, promoting development in such chemical process. We understand redox reactions as switchable thiol/disulfide exchanges (formation and cleavage of inherent disulfide bonds), then, we can hugely profit from redox-responsive nano-surfaces equipped with multiple new ionic and covalent interactions. This game-changing idea can substantiate by surface modified-nanoparticles to play powerful roles in synthesis of nano oxidizers as well as reducing agents in nanomedicine. Chemists and pharmacists must then explore new thoughts and present modern experiences/approaches of preparation nanoparticles and nanocomposites to create novel vaccines as well as coronavirus drugs. In this regard, this experience can also be so helpful for HIV/AIDS, which is caused by viruses.

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is a major health problem within the global cattle industry. This disease has a complex aetiology, with viruses playing an integral role. In this study, metagenomics was used to sequence viral nucleic acids in the nasal swabs of BRD affected cattle. Viruses detected included those well known for their association with BRD in Australia (bovine viral diarrhea virus 1), as well as viruses known to be present but not fully characterised (bovine coronavirus) and viruses that have not been reported in BRD affect cattle in Australia (bovine rhinitis, bovine influenza D, and bovine nidovirus). Nasal swabs from a case control study were subsequently tested for 10 viruses and the presence of at least one virus was found to be significantly associated with BRD. Some of the more recently detected viruses had inconsistent association with BRD. Full genome sequences for bovine coronavirus, a virus increasingly associated with BRD, and bovine nidovirus were complete. Both viruses belong to the Coronaviridae family, which are frequently associated with disease in mammals. This study has provided greater insights into the viral pathogens associated with BRD and highlighted the need for further studies to elucidate more precisely the roles viruses play in BRD.

For analysis tasks, time counts are of interest — values recorded at some, usually equidistant, points in time. The calculation can be performed at various intervals: after a minute, an hour, a day, a week, a month, or a year, depending on how much detail the process should be analyzed. In time series analysis problems, we deal with discrete-time, when each observation of a parameter forms a time frame. The same can be said about the behavior of Covid-19 over time.In this paper, we solve the problem of predicting Covid-19 diseases in the world using neural networks. This approach is useful when it is necessary to overcome difficulties related to non-stationarity, incompleteness, unknown distribution of data, or when statistical methods are not completely satisfactory. The problem of forecasting is solved with the help of the analytical platform Deductor Studio, developed by specialists of the company Intersoft Lab of the Russian Federation. When solving this problem, appropriate methods were used to clean the data from noise and anomalies, which ensured the quality of building a predictive model and obtaining forecast values for tens of days ahead. The principle of time series forecasting was also demonstrated: import, seasonal detection, cleaning, smoothing, building a predictive model, and predicting Covid-19 diseases in the world using neural technologies for 30 days ahead.

The world is in the grips of the COVID-19 pandemic. Public health measures that can reduce the risk of infection and death in addition to quarantines are desperately needed. This article reviews the roles of vitamin D in reducing risk of respiratory tract infections, knowledge about the epidemiology of influenza and COVID-19, and how vitamin D supplementation might be a useful measure to reduce risk. Through several mechanisms, vitamin D can reduce risk of infections. Those mechanisms include inducing cathelicidins and defensins that can lower viral replication rates and reducing concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines that produce the inflammation that injures the lining of the lungs, leading to pneumonia, as well as increase concentrations of anti-inflammatory cytokines. Several observational studies and clinical trials reported that vitamin D supplementation reduced risk of influenza, whereas others did not. Evidence supporting the role of vitamin D in reducing risk of COVID-19 includes that the outbreak occurred in winter, a time when 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations are lowest; that the number of cases in the Southern Hemisphere near the end of summer are low; that vitamin D deficiency has been found to contribute to acute respiratory distress syndrome, and that case-fatality rates increase with age and with chronic disease comorbidity, both of which are associated with lower 25(OH)D concentration. To reduce risk of infection, it is recommended that people at risk of influenza and/or COVID-19 consider taking 10,000 IU/d of vitamin D₃ for a few weeks to rapidly raise 25(OH)D concentrations, followed by 5000 IU/d. The goal should be to raise 25(OH)D concentrations above 40–60 ng/ml (100–150 nmol/l). For treatment of people who become infected with COVID-19, higher vitamin D₃ doses might be useful. Randomized controlled trials and large population studies should be conducted to evaluate these recommendations.

The prevalence of internet gaming disorders (IGD) is considerably high among youth, especially with social isolation imposed by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. IGD adversely affects mental health, quality of life, and academic performance. The Internet Gaming Disorder Scale (IGDS9-SF) is designed to detect IGD according to DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. However, inconsistent results are reported on its capacity to diagnose IGD evenly across different cultures. To ensure the suitability of the IGDS9-SF as a global measure of IGD, this study examined the psychometric properties of the IGDS9-SF in a sample of Sri Lankan university students (N = 322, mean age =17.2 ± 0.6, range = 16-18 years, 56.5% males) and evaluated its measurement invariance across samples from Sri Lanka, Turkey, Australia, and the USA. Among Sri Lankan students, a unidimensional structure expressed good fit, invariance across different groups (e.g., gender, ethnicity, and income), adequate criterion validity (strong correlation with motives of internet gaming, daily gaming duration, and sleep quality), and good reliability (alpha = 0.81). Males and online multiplayers expressed higher IGD levels, greater time spent gaming, and more endorsement of gaming motives (e.g., Social and Coping) than females and offline players. Across countries, the IGDS9-SF was invariant at the configural, metric, and scalar levels, albeit strict invariance was not maintained. The lowest and highest IGD levels were reported among Turkish and American respondents, respectively. In conclusion, the IGDS9-SF can be reliably used to measure IGD among Sri Lankan youth. Because the scale holds scalar invariance across countries, its scores can be used to compare IGD levels in the studied countries.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a wide range of spatial interventions to slow down the spread of the virus. The spatial limitations of narrow public circulation spaces within informal settlements, which house over one billion people around the world, make it impossible for pedestrians to practice physical distancing (or social distancing). In this paper, we propose a flexible mathematical method, named the Cluster Lane Method, for turning a planar circulation network of any size or complexity into a network of unidirectional lanes, making physical distancing possible in narrow circulation spaces by limiting face-to-face interactions. New notions and theorems about oriented graphs in graph theory are introduced. The paper ends with a discussion of the potential implementation of this cost-efficient, low-tech, sustainable solution, and with the introduction of a novel unidirectional tactile paving for the visually impaired.

Multi-Alignment method coupled with phylogenetic analysis we disclosed the Nsp9 and Nsp10 non-structural proteins of Corona Virus as rRNA RlmH/K methyltransferases with similarities with bin recombinase and int-core integrase fold. Further, Nsp9 has similarities to S8 ribosomal protein and Nap10 has similarity to S10 ribosomal protein. Previously, we showed Nsp13, Nsp14, Nsp15 and Nsp16 are also different types of rRNA RlmE/N and Cfr-like methyltransferases-ribonuclease with RNA helicase domains. Two domains of Nsp13 astonishingly have similarities to ribosomal proteins L6 and L9. Taken together, Nsp9/10 and Nsp13-16 proteins could mimic host ribosome assembly and also could methylate rRNA of mitobibosome preventing mitochondrial protein synthesis and oxidative phosphorylation. Low ATP synthesis causes lowering blood pressure following coma but very ATP concentration (1-10nM) surely induces platelets aggregation through vWA, collagen and GpIIb/IIIa proteins followed by fibrin formation and blood clotting as recently have seen in the lung of many Corona virus infected patients. We have also postulated that two polyproteins itself resemble like 28S and 38S mitoribosome subunits and compete with rRNAs inhibiting the ribosome turnover and new protein synthesis due to their similarities with many ribosomal proteins. Such finding may be valuable in computer-based novel drug design against Corona virus.

The use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows the analysis of future diseases propagations. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were proposed two methodologies to predict 28 days ahead the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, United Kingdom, and Germany, and a case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries size, and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized, at least with one dose of vaccine. As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology and targets other possibilities of use for the proposed method. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1 to 28 days ahead forecast lower than 30 cases, 0,6 deaths and 2,5 ICU patients by million people.

Very well into the dawn of the fourth industrial revolution (industry 4.0), we hardly distinguish between what is artificial and what is natural (e.g. man-made virus and natural virus). Thus, the level of discombobulation among people, companies or countries is indeed unprecedented. The fact that industry 4.0 is explosively disrupting or retrofitting each and every industrial sector, makes industry 4.0 the famous buzzword amongst researchers today. However, the insight of industry 4.0 disruption in the industrial sectors remains ill-defined in both academic and non-academic literature. The present study aimed at identifying industry 4.0 neologisms, understanding the industry 4.0 disruption and illustrating the disruptive technologies convergence in the major industrial sectors. A total of 99 neologisms of industry 4.0 were identified. Industry 4.0 disruption in Education industry (Education 4.0), Energy industry (Energy 4.0), Agriculture industry (Agriculture 4.0), Healthcare industry (Healthcare 4.0), and Logistics industry (Logistics 4.0) are described. The convergence of 12 disruptive technologies including 3D printing, Artificial intelligence, Augmented reality, Big Data, Blockchain, Cloud computing, Drones, Internet of things, Nanotechnology, Robotics, Simulation and Synthetic biology in agriculture, healthcare and logistics industries are illustrated.

Abstract: A prevalence boundary (PB) marks the point in prevalence where the false omission rate, RFO=FN/(TN+FN), exceeds the tolerance limit for missed diagnoses. Objectives were to mathematically analyze rapid antigen test (RAgT) performance, determine why PBs are breeched, and evaluate the merits of testing three times over five days, now required by the US Food and Drug Administration for asymptomatic persons. Equations were derived to compare test performance patterns, calculate PBs, and perform recursive computations. An independent July 2023 FDA-university-commercial evaluation of RAgTs provided performance data used in theoretical calculations. Tiered sensitivity/specificity comprise: Tier-1) 90%, 95%; Tier-2) 95%, 97.5%; and Tier-3) 100%, ≥99%, respectively. Repeating a T2 test improves the PB from 44.6% to 95.2% (RFO 5%). In the FDA-university-commercial evaluation, RAgTs generated sensitivity of 34.4%, which improved to 55.3% when repeated, then 68.5% with the third test. With RFO=5%, PBs were 7.37/10.46/14.22%, respectively. PB analysis suggests RAgTs should achieve clinically proven sensitivity of 91.0-91.4%. When prevalence exceeds PBs, missed diagnoses can perpetuate virus transmission. Repeating low-sensitivity RAgTs delays diagnosis. In homes, high-risk settings, and hotspots, PB breaches may prolong contagion, defeat mitigation, facilitate new variants, and transform outbreaks into endemic disease. Molecular diagnostics can help avoid these potential vicious cycles

The Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R) is the most popular measure of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which has been recently validated in Arabic. This instrumental study aimed to determine optimal cutoff scores of the IES-R and its subscales in Arab samples of psychiatric patients (N = 168, 70.8% females) and healthy adults (N = 992, 62.7% females) from Saudi Arabia during the COVID-19 pandemic as an ongoing collective traumatic event. Based on a cutoff score of 14 of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale 8-items (DASS-8), receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis revealed two optimal points of 39.5 and 30.5 for the IES-R in the samples (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.86 & 0.91, p values = 0.001, 95% CI: 0.80-0.92 & 0.87 to 0.94, sensitivity = 0.85 & 0.87, specificity = 0.73 & 0.83, Youden index = 0.58 & 0.70, respectively). Different cutoffs were detected for the six subscales of the IES-R, with numbing and avoidance expressing the lowest predictivity for distress. Meanwhile, hyperarousal followed by the irritability expressed stronger predictive capacity for distress than all subscales in both samples. In path analysis, pandemic-related irritability resulted from direct and indirect effects of key PTSD symptoms (intrusion, hyperarousal, and numbing). Irritability contributed to traumatic symptoms of sleep disturbance in both samples while the opposite was not true. The findings suggest usefulness of the IES-R at a score of 30.5 for detecting adults prone to trauma related distress, with higher scores needed for screening in psychiatric patients. Various PTSD symptoms may induce dysphoric mood, which represents a considerable burden that may induce circadian misalignment and more noxious psychiatric problems/ co-morbidities (sleep disturbance) in both healthy and diseased groups.

Despite extensive investigations of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales-21 (DASS-21) since its development in 1995, its factor structure and other psychometric properties still need to be firmly established, with several calls for revising its item structure. Employing confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), this study examined the factor structure of the DASS-21 and five shortened versions of the DASS-21 among psychiatric patients (N = 168) and the general public (N = 992) during the COVID-19 confinement period in Saudi Arabia. Multigroup CFA, Mann Whitney W test, Spearman’s correlation, and coefficient alpha were used to examine the shortened versions of the DASS-21 (DASS-13, DASS-12, DASS-9 (two versions), and DASS-8) for invariance across age and gender groups, discriminant validity, predictive validity, item coverage, and internal consistency, respectively. Compared with the DASS-21, all three-factor structures of the shortened versions expressed good fit, with the DASS-8 demonstrating the best fit and highest item loadings on the corresponding factors in both samples (χ2(16, 15) = 16.5, 67.0; p = 0.420, 0.000; CFI= 1.000, 0.998; TLI = 0.999, 0.997; RMSEA = 0.013, 0.059, SRMR = 0.0186, 0.0203). It expressed configural, metric, and scalar invariance across age and gender groups. Its internal consistency was comparable to other versions (α = 0.94). Strong positive correlations of the DASS-8 and its subscales with the DASS-21 and its subscales (r = 0.97 to 0.81) suggest adequate item coverage and good predictive validity of this version. The DASS-8 and its subscales distinguished the clinical sample from the general public at the same level of significance expressed by the DASS-21 and other shortened versions, supporting its discriminant validity. Neither the DASS-21 nor the shortened versions distinguished patients diagnosed with depression and anxiety from other conditions. The DASS-8 represents a valid short version of the DASS-21, which may be useful in research and clinical practice for quick identification of individuals with potential psychopathologies. Diagnosing depression/anxiety disorders may be further confirmed in a next step by clinician-facilitated examinations. Brevity of the DASS-21 would save time and effort used for filling the questionnaire and support comprehensive assessments by allowing the inclusion of more measures on test batteries.