The digital era offers many opportunities to the wind energy industry and research community. Digitalisation is one of the key drivers for reducing costs and risks over the whole wind energy project life cycle. One of the largest challenges in successfully implementing digitalisation is the lack of data sharing and collaboration between organisations in the sector. In order to overcome this challenge, a new collaboration method called WeDoWind was developed in recent work. The main innovation of this method is the way it creates tangible incentives to motivate and empower different types of people from all over the world to actually share data and knowledge in practice. In this present paper, the challenges related to comparing and evaluating different SCADA data based wind turbine fault detection models are investigated by carrying out a new case study, the "WinJi Gearbox Fault Detection Challenge", based on the WeDoWind Method. Six new solutions were submitted to the challenge, and a comparison and evaluation of the results show that, in general, some of the approaches (Particle Swarm Optimisation algorithm for constructing health indicators, performance monitoring using Deep Neural Networks, Combined Ward Hierarchical Clustering and Novelty Detection with Local Outlier Factor and Time-to-failure prediction using Random Forest Regression) appear to have a high potential to reach the goals of the Challenge. However, there are a number of concrete things that would have to have been done by the Challenge providers and the Challenge moderators in order to ensure success. This includes enabling access to more details of the different failure types, access to multiple data sets from more wind turbines experiencing gearbox failure, provision of a model or rule relating fault detection times or a remaining useful lifetime to the estimated costs for repairs, replacements and inspections, provision of a clear strategy for training and test periods in advance, as well as provision of a pre-defined template or requirements for the results. These learning outcomes are used directly to define a set of best practice data sharing guidelines for wind turbine fault detection model evaluation. They can be used by the sector in order to improve model evaluation and data sharing in the future.

Initial periods of adsorption kinetics play an important role in estimating the initial adsorption rate and rate constant of adsorption process. Several adsorption processes rapidly occur, and the experimental data of adsorption kinetics under the initial periods can contain potential errors. The pseudo-second-order (PSO) kinetic model has been popularly applied in the field of adsorption. The use of the nonlinear optimization method to obtain the parameters of the PSO model can minimize error functions during modelling compared to the linear method. However, the nonlinear method has limitations in that it cannot directly recognize potential errors in the experimental points of time-dependent adsorption, especially under the initial periods. In this study, for the first time, the different linear types (Types 1–6) of the PSO model are applied to discover the error points under the initial periods. The result indicated that the fitting method using its linear equations (Types 2–5) is really helpful for identifying the error (doubtful) experimental points from the initial periods of adsorption kinetics. The imprecise points lead to low adjusted R2 (adj-R2), high reduced χ2 (red-χ2), and high Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values. After removing those points, the experimental data were adequately fitted with the PSO model. statistical analyses demonstrated that the nonlinear method must be used for modelling the PSO model because its red-χ2 and BIC were lower than the linear method. Type 1 has been extensively applied in the literature because of its very high adj-R2 (0.9999) and its excellent fitting to experimental points. However, its application should be limited because the potential errors from experimental points were not identified by this type. For comparison, the other kinetic models (i.e., pseudo-first-order, pseudo-nth-order, Avrami, and Elovich) are applied. The modelling result using the nonlinear forms of those models indicated that the fault experimental points from the initial periods were not detected.

While the language model using the stop sign as an independent token has been widely used to decide when the model should stop, it may lead to the growth of vocabulary dimensions and further problems. Similarly, present research on game algorithms usually estimate stopping point related problems based on the evaluation of the winning rate. However, information redundancy may also exist in such models, thus increasing the training difficulty. Above two types of tasks (and similar autoregressive tasks) show a common problem of stopping point prediction. In this paper, we describe a design of separated model, trying to separate the complexity of stopping point prediction from the main task model, so that the information used for estimating stopping point can be reduced. On this basis, in order to verify the rationality of using separated model, we propose a model-free test method. It judges the separability of transformed data based on point difference and sequence difference metrics. In this way, it can predict the credibility of the separated model inference.

Vagueira Beach on the Central Portuguese coast, is known as one of the places in Europe most affected by coastal erosion. The area has suffered more than 156 meters of coastline retreat over the period 1958 to 2001. With the aim to evaluate the influence of local factors on coastal erosion, this paper assesses the anthropogenic and natural factors that are related with the retreat of the coastline, by adopting statistical correlation and regression analyses. Through the Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) it was observed that local factors such as annual dredging at the Aveiro Port entrance (r = 0.93), the total length of groins in the Espinho-Vagueira section (r = 0.89), and storm events (r = 0.52) are directly related to coastline retreat in the area. A multiple linear regression model was developed in which coastline retreat is explained by these same factors over the period 1980 to 2006. With a coefficient of determination of R² = 0.91, it was observed that length of groins (significant at the 1% level), dredging of the port entrance (significant at the 5% level) and precipitation (as a proxy for storm events; significant at the 10% level) are significantly correlated with coastline retreat. Hence, it is shown that anthropogenic factors are the main drivers of coastline retreat in Vagueira Beach. This study provides an innovative approach for the assessment of coastal erosion, resulting in important information that can be used for decision-making related to coastal zone management as it allows to understand in greater detail the main drivers of coastal erosion.

The bilateral trade relationship between PRC and ASEAN is close. As early as 2012, China has been the largest trading partner of ASEAN, and ASEAN has also taken the place of the United States as PRC’s second largest trading partner in 2019.This paper uses the theory of ecological population evolution, selects the total import and export volume of PRC and the ten ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2019 as the data sample, studies the bilateral trade relations between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries, analyzes the competition and symbiotic relationship of bilateral trade between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries and the possibility of trade friction according to the results, and proposes corresponding improvement strategies. According to the results of the population evolution competition model, China has a competitive relationship with Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, which is most likely to cause trade friction. China has a biased relationship with Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, which is more likely to cause trade friction. On this basis, in order to further strengthen the trade relations between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on improving infrastructure, strengthening independent innovation, seeking cooperation fields and actively investing abroad.

Study Region -This study is conducted for a cluster of watersheds within the Matagorda Basin along the south Texas coast in the United States. Study Focus - Retrospective streamflow simulations of two hydrologic models of contrasting formulations and complexity, namely the TxRR, a simple analog model, and the National Water Model (NWM), a land surface-hydrologic model that explicitly accounts for surface energy balance in calculating water budget, and whose output. The comparison was motivated by a) the need for improving the modeling of runoff dynamics for watersheds along central Texas coast through the introduction of NWM to inform freshwater inflow monitoring and flood planning, and b) the need to better understand the potential ability of the NWM to address shortcomings of TxRR related to the latter’s mechanistic deficiencies in a region known for hydroclimatic extremes. The study focuses on the temporal scale and climate dependence in the relative performance of the two models, the behaviors of models during extreme floods and droughts, and the relative efficacy of parameter transfer schemes. It further seeks to relate the performance differentials to model physics and calibration approaches. New Hydrologic Insights – NWM, with sophisticated representations of energe closure, is advantageous to TxRR in capturing low-frequency (interannual) variations in streamflow modulated by the surface energy balance, as evidenced by the superior correlation of its streamflow simulations at the interannual range. Yet, its overall performance trails behind TxRR at daily scale, and it tends to underpredict runoff volumes during two major floods. These features underscore the tendency of the model to suppress soil moisture at the onset of these events. On the other hand, TxRR outperforms in reproducing the volumes for the flooding events, but it overpredicts runoff during the extreme drought episode of 2011, likely an outcome of inadequate representation of the impacts of root zone soil moisture in regulating runoff. TxRR’s parameteralization scheme proves more effective for adaptation across watersheds due to the presence of steep gradation in soil properties .

When designing rule-based dialogue systems, the need for elaborate design by the designer is a challenge for dialogue systems. One way to reduce the cost of creating content is to generate utterances from data collected in an objective and reproducible manner. This study focuses on rule-based dialogue systems using survey data, and more specifically on opinion dialogue where the system models the user. In opinion dialogue, there has not been much study of topic transition methods for modeling users while maintaining their motivation for dialogue. To model them, we adopted information content. Our contribution includes the design of a rule-based dialogue system that does not require elaborate design. We also reported an appropriate topic transition method based on information content. This is confirmed by the influence of the user's personality characteristics. The content of questions can give the user a sense of the system's intention to understand them. We also reported the possibility that the system's rational intention contributes to the user's motivation for dialogue with the system.

Version Control and Source Code Management Systems, such as GitHub, contain large amount ofunstructured historical information of software projects. Recent studies have introduced Natural Language Processing (NLP) to help software engineers retrieve information from very large collection of unstructured data. In this study, we have extended our previous study by increasing our datasets and ML and clustering techniques. Method: We have followed a complex methodology made up of various steps. Starting from the raw commit messages we have employed NLP techniques to build a structured database. We have extracted their main features and used as input of different clustering algorithms. Once labelled each entry, we have applied supervised machine learning techniques to build a prediction and classification model. Results: We have developed a machine learning-based model to automatically classify commit messages of a software project. Our model exploits a ground-truth dataset which includes commit messages obtained from various GitHub projects belonging to the HEP context. Conclusions: The contribution of this paper is two-fold: it proposes a ground-truth database; it provides a machine learning prediction model. They automatically identify the more change-proneness areas of code. Our model has obtained a very high average precision, recall and F1-score.

Skin cancer is an uncommon but serious malignancy. Dermoscopic images examination and biopsy are required for cancer detection. Deep learning (DL) is extremely effective in learning characteristics and predicting malignancies. However, DL requires a large number of images to train. Image augmentation and transferring learning were employed to overcome the lack of images issue. In this study we divided images into two categories: benign and malignant. To train and test our models, we used the public ISIC 2020 database. Melanoma is classified as malignant in the ISIC 2020 dataset. Along with categorization, the dataset was studied to demonstrate variation. The performance of three top pretrained models was then benchmarked in terms of training and validation accuracy. Three optimizers were employed to optimize the loss: RMSProp, SGD, and ADAM. Using ResNet, VGG16, and MobileNetV2, we obtained training accuracy of 98.73%, 99.12%, and 99.76%, respectively. Using these three pretrained models, we attained a validation accuracy of 98.39%.

The prediction of an extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) is one of the challenging issues due to increasing intensity and its life period. In this study, an ESCS Fani that developed over Bay of Bengal region during 27 April - 4May, 2019 and made landfall over Odisha coast of India is investigated to forecast the storm track, intensity and structure. Two numerical experiments (changing two air-sea flux parameterization schemes; namely FLUX-1 and FLUX-2) are conducted with the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model by using a moving nest with fine horizontal resolution about 3 km. The high resolution (25 km) NCEP operational Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecast datasets are used to derive the initial and boundary conditions, the ARW model initialized at 00 UTC 29 April 2019 and forecasted for 108 hours. The forecasted track and intensity of Fani is validated with available India Meteorological Department (IMD) best-fit track datasets. Result shows that the track, landfall (position and time) and intensity in terms of minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) and maximum surface wind (MSW) of the storm is well predicted in the moving nested domain of the WRF model using FLUX-1 experiment. The track forecast errors on day-1 to day-4 are ~ 47 km, 123 km, 96 km, and 27 km in FLUX-1 and ~54 km, 142 km, 152 km and 166 km in Flux-2 respectively. The intensity is better predicted in FLUX-1 during the first 60 h followed by FLUX -2 for the remaining period. The structure in terms of relative humidity, water vapor, maximum reflectivity and temperature anomaly of the storm is also discussed and compared with available satellite and Doppler Weather Radar observations.

Current sources play an essential role in tissue excitation used in bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy. Most investigations use Howland current sources that, despite their practicality and simplified implementation, have operating frequency limitations and dependence on the load impedance due to theirs narrow output impedance, specially at higher frequencies. The objective of this work is to propose model for a robust current-controlled sinusoidal oscillator. The oscillator is based on fully analog electronics, which enables controlling oscillation phase and amplitude by using a voltage reference. The mathematical model is based on Pyragas control application to the classical harmonic oscillator. From the modelling process, it was build an oscillator topology based on second-generation current carriers and on transconductance amplifiers. The reference signal (Fsync) was a sinusoidal voltage source having a frequency of 1MHz and an amplitude of 1Vpp. The oscillator output current synchronized the oscillations’ phase and amplitude with Fsync, regardless of their magnitude before the control signal acted in the circuit at t≈13.5μs. SPICE simulations using ideal components have confirmed the successful operation of the proposed oscillator. This type of oscillator can be implemented in SOIC, then allowing oscillation control interface with logic circuits.

Deep neural networks have been extensively researched in the field of document image classification to improve classification performance and have shown excellent results. However, there is little research in this area that addresses the question of how well these models would perform in a real-world environment, where the data the models are confronted with often exhibits various types of noise or distortion. In this work, we present two separate benchmark datasets, namely RVL-CDIP-D and Tobacco3482-D, to evaluate the robustness of existing state-of-the-art document image classifiers to different types of data distortions that are commonly encountered in the real world. The proposed benchmarks are generated by inserting 21 different types of data distortions with varying severity levels into the well-known document datasets RVL-CDIP and Tobacco3482, respectively, which are then used to quantitatively evaluate the impact of the different distortion types on the performance of latest document image classifiers. In doing so, we show that while the higher accuracy models also exhibit relatively higher robustness, they still severely underperform on some specific distortions, with their classification accuracies dropping from ~90% to as low as ~40% in some cases. We also show that some of these high accuracy models perform even worse than the baseline AlexNet model in the presence of distortions, with the relative decline in their accuracy sometimes reaching as high as 300-450% that of AlexNet. The proposed robustness benchmarks are made available to the community and may aid future research in this area.

The authors have revised the circularity of materials, which is important to stimulate circular activity processes. The theoretical part starts with describing the characteristics of the circular activity and the comparison of circular and linear systems in terms of recycling. Later on, the authors examined key elements important for the circularity and the results of an examination of various sectors. The authors formed a correlation matrix and used a dynamic regression model to identify the circular material use rate. The authors suggested a three-level methodology, using it provided a dynamic regression model which could be applied for forecasting the size of circular material use rate in European Union countries. The results show that private investments into recycling and the recycling of electronic waste and the recycling of other municipal waste categories are important in seeking to increase the usage rate of circular materials.

Background: One way to demonstrate the existence of nursing is to develop a nursing theory model through nursing research which can ultimately be implemented in nursing practice. RAM is one of the most frequently used models in guiding nursing research. Roy's Adaptation Model (RAM) is one of the most useful conceptual frameworks that guide nursing practice, direct research, and influence education. Theory-guided nursing practice is fundamental in providing the framework for developing superior and quality nursing care.Objectives: This systematic review aims to critically analyze recent studies using RAM as a conceptual framework to identify the effectiveness of this model in guiding nursing research.Methods: A literature search was conducted on five databases, namely SCOPUS, PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, and SAGEPub. There were no population boundaries and diagnoses involved in the study. The study is a quantitative design focused on publication between 2015-2021. The methodological quality of applying the Cochrane and JBI bias tools. The analysis uses narrative synthesis.Results: 20 studies were found out of 1,315 studies. The research population found is very diverse. The given intervention follows the conceptual framework of RAM. RAM-based interventions effectively overcome the problems experienced by patients and reduce the perceived symptoms and improve the patient's quality of life.Conclusion: The conceptual use of RAM theory in nursing research has been widely reported. RAM-based interventions have a significant impact and have strong evidence-based practice in improving patient health status.

Users on the social networking platform have the freedom to express themselves freely. Towards the same time, this has created a forum for disagreement and hate directed at someone, society, racism, sexual orientation, and so on. Identifying hate online is a challenging task. Researchers from all around the world have contributed major methods for detecting hate speech, but owing to the issue's complexity, there are still many unresolved issues. In this research, we offer a multi-model learning strategy for detecting hate speech on Twitter. We utilised the Kaggle TwitterHate dataset, which had 31962 tweets categorised as binary hate or non-hate, to evaluate our technique. The suggested method is tested using commonly used machine learning classifiers with multi-model technique. Using TF-IDF features, we acquired detection results of 96.29 %, precision of 96%, recall of 96%, and f1-score of 96%.

In many countries, governments have implemented non-pharmaceutical techniques to limit COVID-19 transmission. Restricting human mobility is one of the most common interventions, including lockdown, travel restrictions, working from home, etc. However, due to the strong transmission ability of the virus variants, further rounds of interventions, including a strict lockdown, are not considered as effective as expected. The paper aims to understand how the lockdown policy and pandemics changed human mobility in the real scenario. Here we focus on understanding the mobility changes caused by compliance with restrictions and risk perceptions, using the mobility index from the Google report during three strict lockdown periods in Leeds, the largest city in the county of West Yorkshire, England from March 2020 to March 2021. The research proposed the time-varying z-scores and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to simulate how local people dynamically process and perceive health risk based on multi-dimensional daily COVID-19 reports first. Further modelling highlights exponentially increasing policy non-compliance through the duration of lockdown, probably attributable to factors such as mental anxiety and economic pressures. Finally, the proposed nonlinear regression model examines the mobility changes caused by the population's dynamic risk perceptions and lockdown duration. The case study at Leeds fits data well and shows that the third lockdown policy took effect much slower than the first. At the same time, the negative impact of the epidemic on population mobility decayed 40% in the third lockdown period in contrast with the first lockdown. The risk perception estimation methods could reflect that the local population became increasingly accustomed to the COVID-19 situation, and local people rationally evaluated the risks of COVID in the third lockdown period. The results prove that simulated risk perceptions and policy decay could explain urban mobility behaviour during the mobility well during lockdown periods, which could be a reference for future decision-making processes.

Background. The treatment of coronary stenosis relies on invasive high risk surgical assessment to generate the fractional flow reserve diagnostics index, a ratio of distal to proximal pressures in respect of coronary atherosclerotic plaque causing stenosis. Non-invasive methods are therefore a need of the times. This study proposes an extensible mathematical description of the coronary vasculature that permits rapid estimation of the coronary fractional flow reserve. Methods. By adapting an existing closed loop model of human coronary blood flow, the effects of large vessel stenosis and microvascular disease on fractional flow reserve were quantified. Several simula-tions generated flow and pressure information which was used to compute fractional flow re-serve under a spectrum of conditions including focal stenosis, diffuse stenosis, and microvascular disease. Sensitivity analysis stratified the influence of model parameters on the index. The model was simulated as coupled non-linear ordinary differential equations and numerically solved us-ing an implicit higher order method. Results. Large vessel stenosis affected fractional flow re-serve. The model predicts that the presence, rather than severity, of microvascular disease affect coronary flow deleteriously. Sensitivity analysis revealed that heart rate may not affect the index. Conclusions. The model provides a computationally inexpensive instrument for future in silico coronary blood flow investigations as well as clinical-imaging decision making. A combination of focal and diffuse stenosis appears to be essential in reducing the index. In addition to pressure measurements in the large epicardial vessels, diagnosis of microvascular disease is essential. The independence of the index with respect to heart rate suggests that computationally inexpensive steady state simulations may provide sufficient information to reliably compute the index.

This study examined the link between tax revenue components and economic growth in South Africa, utilizing time series data for the period of 22 years. The stationarity of the variables was established using the Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test, and the existence of long-run and short-run equilibrium conditions was tested using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. As a proxy for economic growth, the study used the real GDP growth rate as the dependent variable, with company income tax, personal income tax, taxes on international trade and transactions, taxes on income, profits, and capital gains tax, foreign direct investment, inflation, and gross savings as the independent variables. According to the PP findings, none of the variables are integrated at a higher order than one, i.e. (1). All variables are found to be cointegrated, and all explanatory variables have a long-run link with economic growth. According to the ARDL findings, company income tax, personal income tax, and taxes on international trade and transactions all have a positive long-run and short-run link with economic growth, whereas capital gain tax, foreign direct investment, and gross savings all have a negative long-run and short-run link with economic growth. The long-run coefficient is negatively related to RGDP, while the short-run coefficient revealed a positive link between inflation and economic growth, among other findings. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation are not present in our model, according to diagnostic tests. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ values indicate that the model is structurally sound.

This paper examines certain implications from the literature on Tiebout’s model of local gov-ernment service provision, particularly Hamilton’s extension of the model to include local control of land use and property taxation. Our empirical analysis focuses on the use of fiscal zoning to lower property tax rates, a topic that has not been addressed in the extensive Tiebout literature. Using data for over 100 municipalities in the Miami, Florida, metropolitan area, we specify property tax rates as a function of fiscal zoning measures, other municipal characteristics, and tax mimicking. We conclude that single-family zoning is by far the most important variable ex-plaining municipal property tax rates.

Clinicians are often very sceptical about applying automatic image processing approaches, especially deep learning based methods, in practice. One main reason for this is the black-box nature of these approaches and the inherent problem of missing insights of the automatically derived decisions. In order to increase trust in these methods, this paper presents approaches that help to interpret and explain the results of deep learning algorithms by depicting the anatomical areas which influence the decision of the algorithm most. Moreover, this research presents a unified framework, TorchEsegeta, for applying various interpretability and explainability techniques for deep learning models and generate visual interpretations and explanations for clinicians to corroborate their clinical findings. In addition, this will aid in gaining confidence in such methods. The framework builds on existing interpretability and explainability techniques that are currently focusing on classification models, extending them to segmentation tasks. In addition, these methods have been adapted to 3D models for volumetric analysis. The proposed framework provides methods to quantitatively compare visual explanations using infidelity and sensitivity metrics. This framework can be used by data scientists to perform post-hoc interpretations and explanations of their models, develop more explainable tools and present the findings to clinicians to increase their faith in such models. The proposed framework was evaluated based on a use case scenario of vessel segmentation models trained on Time-of-fight (TOF) Magnetic Resonance Angiogram (MRA) images of the human brain. Quantitative and qualitative results of a comparative study of different models and interpretability methods are presented. Furthermore, this paper provides an extensive overview of several existing interpretability and explainability methods.

Poor households are more likely less resilient under climate change, risks of productive assets, social-related shocks, and decline of land productivity. The ability to deal with household resilience against poverty under the uncertain condition of risk is limited in the highlands of Ethiopia. The study aims to identify determinants of household resilience to livelihood insecurity under the crop-livestock mixed farming systems in Goncha district, Northwest highlands of Ethiopia. Primary data were collected by conducting face-to-face interviews among 280 households using structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics, Kruskal-Wallis test and structural equation modeling were used to analyse the data. The results disclosed that sustainable management of the farming systems, cultivation of more fertile farmland, saving performance, diversification of income-earning activities, intensification of livestock husbandry practices, access to irrigation, and familiarity with practical technologies were found to be significant determinants at p<0.001 to household resilience of smallholder farmers. Social network development and tree plantation were explained household resilience to livelihood insecurity at P<0.01 and P<0.1 significant levels, respectively. The study concluded that scaling up sustainable management of the farming system and practical technologies, enhancing saving behavior, promoting income diversification, and intensifying agroforestry are significant for household resilience to livelihood insecurity of smallholders across agro-ecologies.

Dry powder inhalers are used by a large number of patients worldwide to treat respiratory diseases. The objective of this work is to experimentally investigate changes in aerosol particle diameter and particle number concentration of pharmaceutical aerosols generated by five dry powder inhalers under realistic inhalation and exhalation conditions. The active respiratory system model (xPULM™) was used as a model of the human respiratory system and to simulate a patient undergoing inhalation therapy. A mechanical upper airway model was developed, manufactured and introduced as a part of the xPULM™ to represent the human upper respiratory tract with high fidelity. Integration of optical aerosol spectrometry technique into the setup allowed for evaluation of pharmaceutical aerosols. The results show that the upper airway model increases the resistance of the overall system and act as a filter for bigger particles (>3 µm). Furthermore, there is a significant difference (p < 0.05) in mean particle diameter between inhaled and exhaled particles with the majority of the particles depositing in the lung. The minimum deposition is reached for particle size of 0.5 µm. The mean particle number concentrations exhaled are 2.94% (BreezHaler®), 2.66% (Diskus®), 10.24% (Ellipta®) 2.13% (HandiHaler®) and 6.22% (Turbohaler®). In conclusion, the xPULM™ active respiratory system model is a viable option for studying interactions of pharmaceutical aerosols and the respiratory tract in terms of applicable deposition mechanisms. The model can support the reduction of animal experimentation in aerosol research and provide an alternative to experiments with human subjects.

The current study was planned to simulate runoff due to the snowmelt in the Lidder River catchment of Himalayan region under climate change scenarios. A basic degree-day model, Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) was utilized to assess the hydrological consequences of change in climate. The SRM model performance during the calibration and validation was assessed using volume difference (Dv) and coefficient of determination (R2). The Dv was found as 11.7, -10.1, -11.8, 1.96, and 8.6 during 2009-2014, respectively, while the R2 is 0.96, 0.92, 0.95, 0.90, and 0.94, respectively. The Dv and R2 values indicating that the simulated snowmelt runoff has a close agreement with the observed value. The simulated findings were also assessed under the different scenarios of climate change: a) increases in precipitation by +20 %, b) temperature rise of +2 °C, and c) temperature rise of +2 °C with a 20 % increase in snow cover. In scenario "b", the simulated results showed that runoff increased by 53 % in summer (April–September). In contrast, the projected increased discharge for scenarios "a" and "c" was 37 % and 67 %, respectively. In high elevation data-scarce mountain environments, the SRM is efficient in forecasting future water supplies due to the snowmelt runoff.

The aroused quest to reduce the delay at interconnect level is the main urge of this paper to come across a configuration of Carbon Nanotube (CNT) bundle namely squarely packed bundle of composite CNTs. The approach, demonstrated in this paper, adapts the composite bundle to adopt for high speed Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) interconnect with technology sizing down. To reduce the delay of the proposed configuration of composite CNT bundle, the behavioral change of Resistance (R), Inductance (L) and Capacitance (C) has been observed with respect to both width of the bundle and diameter of the CNTs in the bundle. Consequently, the performance of the modified bundle configuration is compared with previously developed configuration namely squarely packed bundle of dimorphic MWCNTs in terms of propagation delay and crosstalk delay at local, semiglobal and global level interconnect. The proposed bundle configuration is ultimately enacted as better one for 32nmand 16nmtechnology node and suitable for 7nmas well.

The on-state voltage of MOSFETs is a convenient and powerful temperature-sensitive electric parameter (TSEP) to determine the junction temperature, thus enabling device monitoring, protection, diagnostics and prognostics. The main hurdle in the use of the on-state voltage as a TSEP is the per-device characterization procedure, to be carried out in a controlled environment, with high costs. In this paper we compare two novel techniques for MOSFET junction temperature estimation: controlled shoot-through and direct heating by resistive heaters embedded in two Kapton (polyimide) films. Both allow in-place characterization of the TSEP curve with the device mounted in its final circuit and assembly, including the working heat sink. The two methods are also validated against the conventional procedure in a thermal chamber.

Air traffic congestion is caused by the unbalance between increasing traffic demand and saturating capacity. Flight delay not only causes huge economical lost, but also has very negative environmental impact in the whole air transportation system. In order to identify the impact of extended TMA on airport capacity, an airspace capacity assessment method based on augmented cell transmission model was proposed. Firstly, the airspace structure was modeled with points, segments, layers, and cells. Secondly, mixed integer linear programming model was built up with maximum throughput or capacity as the objective function. Finally, genetic algorithm was used to find the optimal result, and the results were validated by comparing with the fast-time simulation results generated by total airspace and airport modeler (TAAM) software. It is found that the proposed method could achieve a relatively accurate result in a much affordable and fast way. The numerical results could be very helpful for air traffic controllers to analyze the dynamic traffic flow entering and exiting TMA, so as to make decisions via reasonable analysis and do planning in advance by referring to the airport capacity.

Based on the 5.7-magnitude earthquake that stroke Songyuan (China) and 172 groups of liquefaction data collected in mainland China, the hyperbolic liquefaction discriminant formula originally proposed by Sun Rui was revised, and a new formula for the liquefaction of sand was put forward. Groups of data derived from the Bachu earthquake in Xinjiang and an earthquake that occurred in New Zealand (47 and 195 groups, respectively) were used to carry out a back-judgment test, then, the results were compared with those of the existing standard method. Overall, the results showed that the new formula for hyperbolic liquefaction discrimination compensates for the conservative liquefaction discrimination of the older formula; moreover, it has a good applicability to different intensities, groundwater levels, and the deep sand layer of the Songyuan site, reflected by a more balanced success rate. Therefore, combining the existing liquefaction discrimination methods and the research results of discrimination, it is necessary to establish a suitable regional identification method through the continuous accumulation of liquefaction data and expanding database.

A rapid-response Lagrangian model for simulating the transport of a chemical pollutant in the Arabian/Persian Guls is described. The model is well suited to provide a fast response after an emergency due to an accident or a deliberate spill. Baroclinic circulation was obtained from HYCOM ocean model and tides were calculated using a barotropic model. The interactions of pollutants with sediments (uptake/release processes) were described using a dynamic approach based on kinetic transfer coefficients and a stochastic numerical method. Some examples of model applications are shown.

This study investigated the ability of a HYDRUS 1D model for predicting the vertical distribution of potassium iodine (200 ppm) in soil columns after amendment with five different common remediation materials (gypsum, lime, fly ash, charcoal and sawdust) at a rate of 2.5% (w/w), relative to an unamended control soil. Results shows that relative to the unamended soil, iodine leaching was decreased by all amendments but that the magnitude of the decreases varied with the soil amendment applied. Iodine content was highest in the upper layer of the soil columns and decreased progressively with soil depth. The model was evaluated via comparison of the model simulated values with measured values from the soil column studies. The results showed that the HYDRUS 1D model efficiency was near to 1, indicating that the stimulated results were near to the measured values. Therefore, this study showed that iodine leaching through a soil could be ascertained well using a HYDRUS 1D model. The model over predicted iodine leaching, resulting to a weak correspondence between the simulated and the measured results for iodine leaching. This suggests that the HYDRUS-1D model does not explain accurately different organic and inorganic amended soil and the preferential flow that occurs in these columns. This may be due to the fact that Freundlich isotherm, which is part of the transport equations, does not sufficiently describe the mechanism of iodine adsorption onto the soil particles. This study would help to select amendments for an effective management strategy to reduce exogenous iodine losses from agro-ecosystems. This would also improve understanding of iodine transport in soil profile.

Formaldehyde (HCHO) is one of the most important carcinogenic air contaminants. However, the lack of global surface concentration of HCHO monitoring is currently hindering research on outdoor HCHO pollution. Traditional methods are either restricted to small areas or data- demanding for a global scale of research. To alleviate this issue, we adopted neural networks to estimate surface HCHO concentration with confidence intervals in 2019, where HCHO vertical column density data from TROPOMI, in-situ data from HAPs (harmful air pollutants) monitoring network and ATom mission are utilized. Our result shows that the global surface HCHO average concentration is 2.30 μg/m3. Furthermore, in terms of regions, the concentration in Amazon Basin, Northern China, South-east Asia, Bay of Bengal, Central and Western Africa are among the highest. The results from our study provides a first dataset of the global surface HCHO concentration. In addition, the derived confidence interval of surface HCHO concentration adds an extra layer for the confidence to our results. As a pioneer work in adopting confidence interval estimation into AI-driven atmospheric pollutant research and the first global HCHO surface distribution dataset, our paper will pave the way for the rigorous study on global ambient HCHO health risk and economic loss, thus providing a basis for pollutant controlling policies worldwide.

Beyond the usual ferromagnetic and paramagnetic phases present in spin systems, the usual q-state clock model, presents an intermediate vortex state when the number of possible orientations q for the system is equal to 5 or larger. Such vortex states give rise to the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) phase present up to the XY model in the limit q→∞. Based on information theory, we present here an analysis of the classical order parameters plus new short-range parameters defined here. Thus, we show that even using the first nearest neighbors spin-spin correlations only, it is possible to distinguish the two transitions presented by this system for q greater than or equal to 5. Moreover, the appearance at relatively low temperature and disappearance of the BKT phase at a rather fix higher temperature is univocally determined by the short-range interactions recognized by the information content of classical and new parameters.

Vehicle driveability is one of the important vehicle attributes in range-extender electric vehicles due to the electric motor torque characteristics at low-speed events. The process of validating and rectifying vehicle driveability attributes is typically utilised by a physical vehicle prototype that can be expensive and required several design iterations. In this paper, a model-based energy method to assess vehicle driveability is presented based on a high-fidelity 49 degree-of-freedom powertrain and vehicle systems. Multibody dynamics components were built according to their true centre of gravity relative to the vehicle datum for providing an accurate system interaction. The work covered a frequency at less than 20 Hz. The results that consisted of the component frequency domination are structured and examined to identify the low-frequency sensitivity based on different operating parameters such as a road surface coefficient. An energy path technique was also implemented on the dominant component by decoupling its compliances to study the effect on the vehicle driveability and low-frequency response. The outcomes of the research provided a good understanding of the interaction across the sub-systems levels. The powertrain rubber mounts were the dominant components that controlled the low-frequency contents (< 15.33 Hz) and can change the vehicle driveability quality.

Background: Superspreading events are important drivers of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. By analyzing two outbreaks associated with choir rehearsals in March 2020, we demonstrate the risk of indoor, long-range (LR) transmission and singing, to help prevent similar outbreaks. Methods: We conducted two retrospective cohort studies and obtained demographic, clinical, laboratory and contact data, performed SARS-CoV-2 serology, whole genome sequencing (WGS), calculated LR transmission probabilities, measured particle emissions of selected choir members, and calculated particle air concentrations and inhalation doses.Results: We included 65 (84%) and 42 (100%) members of choirs 1 and 2, respectively. WGS confirmed strain identity in both choirs and the primary case of choir 1 (transmitting presymptomatically). Particle emission rate when singing was 7 times higher compared to talking. In choir 1, the median concentration of primary cases’ emitted particles was 8 times higher, exposure at least 30 minutes longer and room volume smaller than in choir 2, resulting in markedly different estimated probabilities for LR transmission (median: 89% vs. 18%, 95%CI: 80-95% vs. 6-36%). Observed AR in choir 1 (89%) was significantly higher than in choir 2 (24%). According to a risk model, first transmission in choir 1 occurred likely after 7 minutes of singing. The number of inhaled particles emitted by an infectious case, sufficient to infect 50% of exposed, was calculated to 1039-2883 particles (95%CI).Conclusions: Even in large rooms, singing of an infectious person may lead to secondary infections through LR exposure within minutes. Given the potential for presymptomatic infectiousness, greatest caution is required wherever aerosols can accumulate.

Abstract: To describe the feeder topology and information exchange between intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) for Internet of Things (IoT), it is necessary to extend IEC 61850 and add a logical model. The feeder model described in IEC 61970 is then extended in IEC 61850 to serve as a container for the equipment along the distribution line. For the physical connections in the electrical equipment, both terminal and connectivity node logical models are added. Taking logical node XCBR as the example, its attributes for the terminals are added to the electrical equipment. The logical node LCNN is then further added in order to describe the connectivity node. By next adding the logical node LTPN to describe the topological node, and FTPA to describe the results of the topology analysis, we can efficiently describe the topology analysis results. Based on these new logical nodes, the exchange of topology information between intelligent terminals no longer relies on configuration files, but only requires logical nodes. Through the above expansion, the topology description and information exchange of medium and low voltage feeders are realized.

Dynamical system tools offer a complementary approach to detailed biophysical seizure modeling, with a high potential for clinical applications. This review describes the theoretical framework that provides a basis for theorizing certain properties of seizures and for their classification according to their dynamical properties at onset and offset. We describe various modeling approaches spanning different scales, from single neurons to large-scale networks. This narrative review provides an accessible overview of this field, including non-exhaustive examples of key recent works.

The virus SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in numerous modelling approaches arising rapidly to understand the spread of the disease COVID-19 and to plan for future interventions. Herein, we present an SEIR model with a spatial spread component as well as four infectious compartments to account for the variety of symptom levels and transmission rate. The model takes into account the pattern of spatial vulnerability in South Africa through a vulnerability index that is based on socioeconomic and health susceptibility characteristics. Another spatially relevant factor in this context is level of mobility throughout. The thesis of this study is that without the contextual spatial spread modelling, the heterogeneity in COVID-19 prevalence in the South African setting would not be captured. The model is illustrated on South African COVID-19 case counts and hospitalisations.

This research aims to identify the role of the Dyson model for strategic development in achieving strategic success, and the starting point of the research was the following main question: What is the role of the Dyson model in achieving success?The research was applied in the field in the departments of the Baghdad Municipality, where the examination list was relied upon, which included a set of questions that the senior and middle leaders in the Baghdad Municipality answered, and it was the main means by which the information related to the field of research was collected, and the checklist included two variables and three dimensions From each variable, as each dimension included four questions that express indicators that revolve around one of the research hypotheses, and the case study methodology was used, which defined its path and steps, collected and analyzed field data, and linked it to its theoretical framework, in order to reach To achieve the goal of completing this research, and through analyzing, interpreting and discussing the results, the most important results were drawn up: It was found that the principle of motivation within the departments of Baghdad Municipality does not exist and this affects the employees who do not receive it from the higher leaders in their departments, and this shows that the leaderships in The Municipality of Baghdad do not have the skills and experience. Baghdad Municipality seeks to work alone and not to involve employees who have experiences and skills and strive to achieve development in their departments, and this is what the community members expressed. Among them and poor business completion in their departments.

Shales are well known for their strong anisotrophic properties. The classical Athy’s model on the exponential porosity reduction with the depth commonly uses based on localities only. Shale compaction curve affects the results of the basin modeling as it is important input data, thus the standard compaction curve of shales needs to be established. This study provided a new data and complies available data of Thailand shales to propose the new empirical relationship among porosity, burial depth, and geological age. The numerical data of the geological time were estimated by the application from the relationship of velocity and depth in each geological ages. The variation of the Thailand shale data due to the different geological ages was found in this study. Finally, the standard curve of shale compaction proposed by Puttiwongrak et al. [9] was examined and confirmed by this research findings.

Significant progress has been made in understanding the computational and neural architecture that mediates eye and hand movements made in isolation. However, less is known about the mechanisms that control these movements when they are coordinated. Here, we outline our computational approaches using accumulation-to-threshold and race-to-threshold models to elucidate the mechanisms that initiate and inhibit these movements. We suggest that, depending on the behavioral context, the initiation and inhibition of coordinated eye-hand movements can operate in two modes- coupled and decoupled. The coupled-mode operates when the task context requires a tight coupling between the effectors; a common command initiates both effectors, and a unitary inhibitory process is responsible for stopping them. Conversely, the decoupled mode operates when the task context demands weaker coupling between the effectors; separate commands initiate the eye and hand, and separate inhibitory processes are responsible for stopping them. We hypothesize that higher-order control processes assess the behavioral context and choose the most appropriate mode. This computational architecture can explain heterogeneous results observed across many studies that have investigated the control of coordinated eye-hand movements and may also serve as a general framework to understand the control of complex multi-effector movements.

Soils provide important regulating ecosystem services and have crucial implications for human well-being and environmental conservation. However, soil degradation and particularly soil erosion jeopardize the maintenance and existence of these services. This study explores the spatio-temporal relationships of soil erosion to understand the distribution patterns of sediment retention services in mainland Portugal. Based on Corine Land Cover maps from 1990 to 2018, the InVEST Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) model was used to evaluate the influence of sediment dynamics for soil and water conservation. Spatial differences in the sediment retention levels were observed within the NUTS III boundaries, showing which areas are more vulnerable to soil erosion processes. Results indicated that the Region of Leiria, Douro and the coastal regions have decreased importantly sediment retention capacity over the years. However, in most of the territory (77.52%) changes in sediment retention were little or not important (i.e., less than 5%). The statistical validation of the model proved the consistency of the results, highlighting the usefulness of this methodology to analyse the state of soil erosion in the country. These findings can be relevant to support strategies for more efficient land use planning regarding soil erosion mitigation practices.

The first attempt to control and mitigate an epidemic outbreak caused by a previously unknown virus occurs primarily via non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which since the early days of 2020 caused the COVID-19 pandemic, NPIs aimed at reducing transmission enabling contacts between individuals. The effectiveness of contact reduction measures directly correlates with the number of individuals adhering to such measures. Here, we illustrate by means of a very simple compartmental model how partial noncompliance with NPIs can prevent these from stopping the spread of an epidemic.

The frame construction of an apartment complex that consists of multiple buildings encounters various uncertainties, owing to the complex relationships among units of work. Currently, the period of such a construction is calculated based on the number of floors of the highest building in the complex. This study quantitatively analyzes an apartment frame construction period using a queue model and evaluates the validity of the estimated period. In this regard, a methodology is proposed for analyzing the construction period by applying the concept of a customer and a server. A case study on the duration of an apartment frame construction is conducted with Korea Land and Housing Corporation, which has supplied the largest number of apartments in South Korea. It was found that the stable state of a queue system was observed when the rate of server utilization was applied to the basement and aboveground floors. However, a stable state was not reached on the ground floor. This study includes non-working days in its calculation and quantitatively analyzes uncertainty factors during construction. Therefore, the findings can be practically utilized to quantitatively plan the durations of work units in an apartment frame construction.

Based on comprehensible non-parametric methods, estimates of crucial parameters that characterise the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on the German epidemic are presented. Where appropriate, the estimates for Germany are compared with the results for seven other countries (FR, IT, US, UK, ES, CH, BR) to get an idea of the breadth of applicability and a relational understanding. Thereby, only prevalence data of daily reported new counts of diagnosed cases and fatalities provided by the Johns Hopkins University are used. Drawing on uncertain a priori knowledge is avoided. Specifically, we present estimates resulting from delay-time correlations for the duration from diagnosis to death being 13 days for Germany and Switzerland. The delay-time correlation applied to time series from other countries exhibit less pronounced peaks suggesting high variabilities for the corresponding time-to-death durations. With respect to the German data, the two time series of new cases and fatalities exhibit a strong coherence within the frequency range of interest, which backs our findings. Furthermore, based on the knowledge of this time lag between diagnoses and deaths, properly delayed asymptotic as well as instantaneous fatality-case ratios are calculated having superiority compared to the commonly published case-fatality rate. The temporal median of the instantaneous fatality-case ratio with proper delay of 13-days between cases and deaths for Germany turns out to be 0.02. Time courses of asymptotic fatality-case ratios are presented for other countries which substantially differ during the first half of the pandemic, however, converge to a narrow range with standard deviation 0.57% and mean 2.4%. Additionally, the time courses of instantaneous fatality-case ratios with optimal delay for the 8 exemplarily chosen countries are calculated and compared by means of the temporal medians. Similarly to the asymptotic fatality-case ratios, the differences are much smaller than expected from mass media reports. The basic reproduction number, R₀, for Germany is estimated to be between 2.4 and 3.4. The uncertainty stems from uncertain knowledge of the generation time. A delay autocorrelation shows resonances at about 4 days and 7 days, where the latter resonance is at least partially attributable to the sampling process with weekly periodicity. The calculation of the basic reproduction number is based on an evaluation of cumulative numbers of cases yielding time-dependent doubling times as an intermediate step. This allows to infer to the reproduction number during the early phase of onset of the epidemic. In a second approach, the instantaneous reproduction number is derived from the incident (counts of new) cases and allows, in contrast to the first version, to infer to the temporal behaviour of the reproduction number during the later epidemic course. The time course of the reproduction number is compared to an alternative control measure given by the per capita growth, which largely confirms the conclusions drawn from the reproduction number. To conclude, by avoiding complicated parametric models we provide insights into basic features of the COVID-19 epidemic in an utmost transparent and comprehensible way. The perhaps most striking insight is that the fatality-case ratios do not differ between countries as much as previously suspected.

This paper focuses on the physical attributes of land that intrinsically limit land use and possibly affect land values. In particular, we investigate if the slope of a land does decrease its price and investigate the role of land slope in forming more reliable constant-quality land price indices and aggregate house price indices. We find that, while land slopes do decrease the land price per unit, they have a small effect on the quality-adjusted land price indices in selected neighborhoods in Auckland, New Zealand, where sloped terrain is common.

Long-term continuous time series of SO2 emissions are considered critical elements of both volcano monitoring and basic research into processes within magmatic systems. One highly successful framework for computing these fluxes involves reconstructing a representative time-averaged SO2 plume from which to estimate the SO2 source flux. Previous methods within this framework have used ancillary wind datasets from reanalysis or numerical weather prediction (NWP) to construct the mean plume and then again as a constrained parameter in the fitting. Additionally, traditional SO2 datasets from ultraviolet (UV) sensors lack altitude information which must be assumed to correctly calibrate the SO2 data and to capture the appropriate NWP wind level which can be a significant source of error. We have made novel modifications to this framework which do not rely on prior knowledge of the winds and therefore do not inherit errors associated with NWP winds. To perform the plume rotation, we modify a rudimentary computer vision algorithm designed for object detection in medical imaging to detect plume-like objects in gridded SO2 data. We then fit a solution to the general time-averaged dispersion of SO2 from a point source. We demonstrate these techniques using SO2 data generated by a newly developed probabilistic layer height and column loading algorithm designed for the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), a hyperspectral infrared sensor aboard the Joint Polar Satellite System’s Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 satellites. This SO2 data source is best suited to flux estimates at high-latitude volcanoes and at low-latitude, but high-altitude volcanoes. Of particular importance, IR SO2 data can fill an important data gap in the UV-based record: estimating SO2 emissions from high-latitude volcanoes through the polar winters when there is insufficient solar backscatter for UV sensors to be used.

The simplest elasticity model of foundation underlying a slender beam under flexure was conceived by Winkler, requiring local proportionality between soil reactions and beam deflection. Such an approach leads to well-posed elastostatic and elastodynamic problems, but, as highlighted by Wieghardt, it provides elastic responses which are not technically significant for a wide variety of engineering applications. Thus, Winkler's model was replaced by Wieghardt himself by assuming that the beam deflection is the convolution integral between soil reaction field and an averaging kernel. Due to conflict between constitutive and kinematic compatibility requirements, the corresponding elastic problem of an inflected beam resting on Wieghardt foundation results to be ill-posed. Modifications of the original Wieghardt model were proposed by introducing fictitious boundary concentrated forces of constitutive type, which are physically questionable, being significantly influenced on prescribed kinematic boundary conditions. Inherent difficulties and issues are overcome in the present research using a displacement-driven nonlocal integral strategy got by swapping input and output fields involved in Wieghardt's original formulation. That is, nonlocal soil reaction fields are output of integral convolutions of beam deflection fields with an averaging kernel. Equipping the displacement-driven nonlocal integral law with the bi-exponential averaging kernel, an equivalent nonlocal differential problem, supplemented with non-standard constitutive boundary conditions involving nonlocal soil reactions, is established. As a key implication, the integro-differential equations governing the elastostatic problem of an inflected elastic slender beam resting on displacement-driven nonlocal integral foundation are replaced with much simpler differential equations supplemented with kinematic, static and new constitutive boundary conditions. The proposed nonlocal approach is illustrated by examining and analytically solving exemplar problems of structural engineering. Benchmark solutions for numerical analyses are also detected.

The era of globalization of the industrial revolution 4.0 was also marked by rapid economic, social, scientific, and technological developments. Currently, the company was demanded to maximize all its potential to compete with other companies. For this reason, it was hoped that companies could understand the importance of knowledge management-based intellectual capital through outreach, externalization, internalization, and combinations that had implications for improving employee performance and competency. This study was to identify and describe the enhancement of performance and competency-based on the optimization of the intellectual capital model in terms of critical thinking analysis. This study used a qualitative approach with critical thinking analysis through literature study methods. The findings results of this study were to improve performance and competency were the basic measurement models of intellectual capital, new intellectual capital measurement models in empirical studies, intellectual capital measurement models with bottlenecks, and environmental-based intellectual capital models. This study concluded that intellectual capital measurement should be determined as accumulation and interpretation in the proposed model for a company that was an applied subject with a qualitative intellectual capital index system, to provide a good tool for companies to managed intellectual capital.

Climate justice as a commons is conceived as the intertemporal climate equity and equal- ity exchange amongst generations. Sustainability, intended as the interplay amongst the economy, the society, the environment, and the governance, is essential to forge the climate justice theoretical framework. On this base, the study attempts to model intertemporal choice amongst generations in these four domains, making use of an over- lapping generations (OLG) model. The proxies detected are GDP growth (economy), environmental quality (environment), and labor growth, and environmental investment (society) as assumptions. The governance dimension is captured by the di¤erence in wealth between young and old generations. The work aims at replying to the follow- ing research question: Which are the conditions for sustainable development such that climate justice holds? The intra-intergenerational exchange is de…ned in two periods, while the individual provides their preferred economic and environmental choice mix as consumption-saving. This study shows that sustainable growth is achievable only with increased young e¤ort and less leisure and consumption.

The novelty of 21st-century physics is the development of the “superfluid quantum vacuum” model, also named “superfluid quantum space” SQS. This SQS is replacing space-time as the fundamental arena of the universe. It also represents the model that has the potential of unifying four fundamental forces of the universe. SQS in this article is represented as the time-invariant fundamental field of the universe where time is merely the duration of material changes.

The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modelling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a simple mathematical model of epidemic outbreaks, yet for decades it evaded the efforts of the community to derive explicit solution. The present work demonstrates that this is a non-trivial task. Notably, it is proven that the explicit solution of the model requires the introduction of a new transcendental special function, related to the Wright's Omega function. The present manuscript reports new analytical results and numerical routines suitable for parametric estimation of the SIR model. The manuscript introduces iterative algorithms approximating the incidence variable, which allows for estimation of the model parameters from the numbers of observed cases. The numerical approach is exemplified with data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) for several European countries in the period Jan 2020 -- Jun 2020.

In this paper, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method has been used to simulate the gas flow and the catalytic hydrogenation process of the C-2 hydrogenation adiabatic reactor in a practical ethylene production unit of a chemical plant. The laminar finite-rate model was used for the chemical reaction model. The standard two-equation model was used for the turbulence model. The exponent-function kinetic model was used for the reaction dynamics model. The simulation results were in good agreement with the actual industrial data obtained from the C-2 hydrogenation reactor, and the distributions of reaction parameters such as temperature and component concentrations in the reactor were further analyzed. Based on the validated CFD models, the structure and operating conditions of the reactor, as well as hydrogen load distribution ratios, are simulated for comparing the comprehensive performance metrics of ethylene selectivity and acetylene conversion rate; as a result, we can obtain the optimal temperature of 312 K, the optimal hydrogen/acetylene ratio of 0.10 as well as the optimal hydrogen load distribution ratio of 4:4:2, and the diameter/height ratio exerts a marginal effect on the selectivity, conversion rate and harmonic mean of the reactor.

Understanding the strength of the associations between perceived risk and individuals’ behavioral intentions to protect their health is important for determining appropriate risk communication strategies in communities impacted by lead contamination. We conducted a survey within communities of northern Idaho, USA (n = 306) near a Superfund megasite with legacy mining contamination. We empirically test a theoretical model based on the Health Belief Model. Survey respondents had higher intentions to practice health protective behaviors when they perceived the risk of lead contamination as severe, recognized the benefits of health protective behaviors, and considered the risks of lead contamination. Women reported higher behavioral intentions than men, but age and mining affiliation did not have an association. Survey comments indicated that perceptions about the long-term environmental remediation in the region influenced risk perceptions. Understanding risk perceptions, behavioral intentions, and related factors can aid public health agencies in tailoring risk communication for increasing protective behaviors in mining-impacted communities internationally.

We present a class of efficient parametric closure models for 1D stochastic Burgers equations. Casting it as statistical learning of the flow map, we derive the parametric form by representing the unresolved high wavenumber Fourier modes as functionals of the resolved variables’ trajectory. The reduced models are nonlinear autoregression (NAR) time series models, with coefficients estimated from data by least squares. The NAR models can accurately reproduce the energy spectrum, the invariant densities, and the autocorrelations. Taking advantage of the simplicity of the NAR models, we investigate maximal and optimal space-time reduction. Reduction in space dimension is unlimited, and NAR models with two Fourier modes can perform well. The NAR model’s stability limits time reduction, with a maximal time step smaller than that of the K-mode Galerkin system. We report a potential criterion for optimal space-time reduction: the NAR models achieve minimal relative error in the energy spectrum at the time step where the K-mode Galerkin system’s mean CFL number agrees with the full model’s.

For more than 70 years, biologists and biophysicists have been trying to unravel the mystery that exists regarding the saltatory conduction of so-called myelinated neurons. Albert Einstein used the train metaphor to explain the theory of relativity. It is possible to use a similar metaphor to better understand this transient functioning of the neuron: the action potential. We will, once again, use a train to demonstrate unequivocally that the action potential does not jump from node of Ranvier to node of Ranvier (noR) as we thought it would. It is possible to describe that the neuron uses an elegant method to increase the speed of transmission of the neural message. It is also important to conclude that this increase in speed, contrary to the common idea, has a certain energy cost that is proportional to speed and in accordance with thermodynamics.

In the present work, we evaluate the prediction capability of six Pedotransfer functions (PTFs), reported in the literature, for the saturated hydraulic conductivity estimations (Ks). We used a database with 900 measured samples obtained from the Irrigation District 023, in San Juan del Rio, Queretaro, Mexico. Additionally, six new PTFs were construct for Ks from clay percentage, bulk density and saturation water content data. The results show, for the evaluated models, that one model present an overestimation for Ks>0.5 cm h-1 values, three models have a underestimation for Ks>1.0 cm h-1 and two models have a good correlation (R2>0.98) but are necessary more than three parameters. Nevertheless, the last two models requires from three to four parameters in order to get the optimization. By other hand, the models proposed in this work have a similar correlation with a less number of parameters: the fit is seen to be much better than using the existing ones, achieving a correlation of R2 = 0.9822 with only one variable and a R2 = 0.9901 when we use two.

Marketing is one of the important stages, the decisive factor affecting the success of production and business activities of every business. Therefore, marketing is considered to be the first and most important stage in the process of introducing, bringing products to market and branding of businesses, especially in the period when the disease situation is taking place very complicated worldwide. This study provides both qualitative and quantitative results for the following research objectives. Firstly, the study will assess the situation and analyze the appropriateness of marketing models in the current market situation trend. Secondly, the study proposes an approach in building a new type of marketing model, which is 3D web-based marketing applied in e-commerce to support the modeling of enterprise products in the form of Interactive 3D products are similar to real products. Thirdly, testing and evaluating 3D e-commerce web marketing model at Truong Hai Auto Showroom, Thai Nguyen City branch. This study also proposes a number of solutions for the research and deployment of 3D web marketing model application for businesses in the current market situation.

Service pricing is a bottleneck in the development of innovation services, as it is the issue of most concern between the suppliers and demanders. In this paper, a negotiation pricing model that is based on the multiobjective genetic algorithm is developed for innovation service pricing. Regarding the service pricing process as a multiobjective problem, the objective functions, which include the service price, service efficiency, and service quality, for suppliers and demanders are constructed. As the solution of a multiobjective problem is typically a series of alternatives, another negotiation process is necessary for determining the final decision. A learning strategy is adopted during the negotiation process to simulate reality. Finally, the model is implemented for an innovation service transaction, the objective of which is to identify the optimal price plan. The results demonstrate that the model can provide quantitative decision support for the pricing of an innovation service and ultimately yield a win-win result for both the supplier and demander of the innovation service. Furthermore, the influence of the parameters during the negotiation process is analyzed in detail. The effects of the learning strategy on accelerating the negotiation process, as well as the chosen of reasonable parameters are given.

There are uncertainties associated with every phase of the stock assessment process, ranging from the collection of data, assessment model choice, model assumptions and interpretation of risk to the implementation of management advice. The dynamics of fish populations are complex, and our incomplete understanding of those dynamics (and limited observations of important mechanisms) necessitate that models are simpler than nature. The aim is for the model to capture enough of the dynamics to accurately estimate trends and abundance and to provide advice to managers about sustainable harvests. The \textit{status quo} approach to assessment modelling has been to identify the `best' model, based on diagnostics and model selection criteria, and to generate advice from that model, mostly ignoring advice from other model configurations regardless of how closely they performed relative to the chosen model. We review the suitability of the ensemble modelling paradigm to more fully capture uncertainty in stock assessment model building and the provision of advice. We recommend further research to evaluate potential gains in modelling performance and advice from the use of ensemble modelling, while also suggesting revisions to the formal process for reviewing models and providing advice to management bodies.

The corrected mechanism model of battery voltammetric function is helpful to guide the development and application of battery. There are two scientific issues that need to be answered: First, how many mechanisms do batteries have; Second, how to establish the mechanism model separately under the overlapping of these mechanisms. Volt-ampere characteristics of both linear state and nonlinear state exist; the monotonic decreasing of volt-ampere characteristics indicates that the battery have only three kinds of mechanisms. Without changing the basic form of the function and under the principle of the mechanism function’s working region considered, we propose a mechanism function which satisfies the monotonic decreasing characteristic of the voltammetric curve of battery, via the derivative law of each mechanism function in the voltammetric function of battery. By using the voltammetric data, the obtained cell mechanism function can accurately predict the potential (current or voltage) when the independent variable of the cell is zero, and provide the theoretical basis for the internal working mechanism of the cell, which can guide the practice.

In this paper, a capacitor microphone system is presented to improve the conversion of mechanical energy to electrical energy using a nonlinear auto regressive moving average-L2 (NARMA-L2) and model predictive control (MPC) controllers for the analysis of the open loop and closed loop system. The open loop system response shows that the output voltage signal need to be improved. The comparison of the closed loop system with the proposed controllers have been analyzed and a promising result have been obtained using Matlab/Simulink.

The main goal of this article is to demonstrate the impact of environmental data on the spreading of Covid-19. In this research, data has been collected from 70 cities/provinces that are affected by Covid-19. Here, environmental data refers to temperatures, humidity and population density in each of these cities/provinces. This data has been analyzed using statistical models such as Poisson, Quasi-Poisson and negative Binomial. It is found that a negative Binomial regression model is the best fit for our data. Our results reveal that average high temperature is the vital factor to slow down the spread of Covid-19. In addition, higher population density found to be an important factor for the quick spreading of Covid-19 where it is quite impossible to maintain the social distance and the virus can spread easily.

This paper is an attempt to present a COVID-19 prediction model for India. Lockdown plays an important role in the arrest of community spread of the disease. This was evident from the study of other countries such as Russia, Belgium and Germany, where peak cases were recorded within a month of the imposition of lockdown, that it showed an immediate positive effect. However, in India, even after 65 days of lockdown, there is no decrease in the number of daily new cases reported. There were many models prepared for India and almost all of them were proven wrong by the increase in the number of cases. The model in this paper is prepared using the COVID-19 trend in other countries, population density and the pandemic bell curve. Based on the available data until 24^th May 2020, two scenarios have been presented. In one, the peak shall be obtained when the number of daily new cases per million reaches 190 and in the second when the daily new cases per million reach 724. One model predicts the number of cases to reach 1 million by mid-July 2020. The other model predicts the number of cases to peak by mid-July with the total cases reaching 20 million. The predicted cases were compared with the actual cases recorded for the period 25^th May to 11^th June 2020. It was observed that the actual values matched quite reasonably with the predicted values.

Background: Flattening the curve refers to community isolation measures that keep the daily number of disease cases at a manageable level for medical providers. Efforts to completely contain the COVID – 19 have failed. As there is currently no vaccine or specific medication to treat COVID-19, the only way to flatten the curve is through collective action of mitigation efforts. Objectives: The study was carried out with aim to study the effect of mitigation efforts in reducing the overall COVID -19 attack rate and flattening the curve of COVID-19 in Egypt. Methods: Secondary data in the situation reports of WHO, Worldometer and Egyptian MoHP Report about the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt were analyzed till June 27, 2020. Survival analysis was carried out to determine the cumulative proportional survival of COVID-19. The Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model was used to study the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. Results: In Egypt in the fourth week after exposure β was 0.17 and γ = 0.07. The fraction of infectious individuals will grow exponentially as the exponential growth rate was 0.10, with an epidemic time of 7 days. R in 22 ^nd June was 0.80 (less than one person infected) where β=0.21 and γ =0.26. There was reduction in the actual overall attack rate at 22^nd June of 96 % of its value without intervention with a cumulative proportional survival of 0.89. There was flattening of the curve. Conclusion and Recommendation: Mitigation efforts of Egypt had succeeded in flattening the curve of COVID-19 Pandemic. Even though, strengthening all the mitigation efforts to keep the exposure probability, as well as the transmission rate as low as possible is mandatory for containment of the epidemic.

The sudden pervasive of severe acute respiratory syndrome Covid-19 has been leading the universe into a prominent crisis. It has influenced each zone, for example, industrial area, horticultural zone, Public transportation, economic zone, and so on. So as to see how Covid-19 affected the globe, we conducted an investigation characterizing the effects of the pandemic over the world using Machine Learning (ML) method. Prediction is a typical data science exercise that helps the administration with function planning, objective setting, and anomaly detection. We propose an additive regression model with interpretable parameters that can be naturally balanced by experts with domain intuition about the time series. We focus on global data beginning from 22^nd January 2020, till 26^th April 2020 and performed dynamic map visualization of Covid-19 expansion globally by date wise and predicting the spread of virus on all countries and continents. The major advantages of this work include accurate analysis of country-wise as well as province/state-wise confirmed cases, recovered cases, deaths, prediction of pandemic viral attack and how far it is expanding globally.

Communication has never been more accessible than today. With the help of Instant messengers and Email Services, millions of people can transfer information with ease, and this trend has affected organizations as well. There are billions of organizational emails sent or received daily, and their main goal is to facilitate the daily operation of organizations. Behind this vast corpus of human-generated content, there is much implicit information that can be mined and used to improve or optimize the organizations’ operations. Business processes are one of those implicit knowledge areas that can be discovered from Email logs of an Organization, as most of the communications are followed inside Emails. The purpose of this research is to propose an approach to discover the process models in the Email log. In this approach, we combine two tools, supervised machine learning and process mining. With the help of supervised machine learning, fastText classifier, we classify the body text of emails to the activity-related. Then the generated log will be mined with process mining techniques to find process models. We illustrate the approach with a case study company from the oil and gas sector.

We examine the profitability of the momentum and contrarian strategies in three South Asian markets i.e. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. We also analyze, whether credit risk influences momentum and contrarian return for these markets from 2008 to 2014. We use Distance-to-default (DD) of Kealhofer, McQuown and Vasicek (KMV) model as a measure of credit risk. We calculate the credit risk and form the momentum and contrarian strategies of the firms on the basis of high, medium and low risk. We find that in all three markets, the momentum and contrarian returns are significant for medium and high credit risk portfolios and no momentum and contrarian returns for low credit risk portfolios.

A regularization approach to model selection, within a generalized HJM framework, is introduced which learns the closest arbitrage-free model to a prespecified factor model. This optimization problem is represented as the limit of a one-parameter family of computationally tractable penalized model selection tasks. General theoretical results are derived and then specialized to affine term-structure models where new types of arbitrage-free machine learning models for the forward-rate curve are estimated numerically and compared to classical short-rate and the dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor models.

This study explores wind energy resources in different locations through the Gulf of Oman and also their future variability due climate change impacts. In this regard, EC-EARTH near-surface wind outputs obtained from CORDEX-MENA simulations are used for historical and future projection of the energy. The ERA5 wind data are employed to assess the suitability of the climate model. Moreover, the ERA5 wave data over the study area are applied to compute sea surface roughness as an important variable for converting near-surface wind speeds to those of wind speed at turbine hub height. Considering the power distribution, bathymetry and distance from the coats, some spots as tentative energy hotspots to provide a detailed assessment of directional and temporal variability and also to investigate climate change impact studies. RCP8.5 is a common climatic scenario is used to project and extract future variation of the energy in the selected sites. The results of this study demonstrate that the selected locations have a suitable potential for wind power turbine plans and constructions.

Wind power as a renewable source of energy, has numerous economic, environmental and social benefits. In order to enhance and control the renewable wind power, it is vital to utilize models that predict wind speed with high accuracy. Due to neglecting of requirement and significance of data preprocessing and disregarding the inadequacy of using a single predicting model, many traditional models have poor performance in wind speed prediction. In the current study, for predicting wind speed at target stations in the north of Iran, the combination of a multi-layer perceptron model (MLP) with the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) used to build new method (MLP-WOA) with a limited set of data (2004-2014). Then, the MLP-WOA model was utilized at each of the ten target stations, with the nine stations for training and tenth station for testing (namely: Astara, Bandar-E-Anzali, Rasht, Manjil, Jirandeh, Talesh, Kiyashahr, Lahijan, Masuleh and Deylaman) to increase the accuracy of the subsequent hybrid model. Capability of the hybrid model in wind speed forecasting at each target station was compared with the MLP model without the WOA optimizer. To determine definite results, numerous statistical performances were utilized. For all ten target stations, the MLP-WOA model had precise outcomes than the standalone MLP model. The hybrid model had acceptable performances with lower amounts of the RMSE, SI and RE parameters and higher values of NSE, WI and KGE parameters. It was concluded that WOA optimization algorithm can improve prediction accuracy of MLP model and may be recommended for accurate wind speed prediction.

Deep coal beds have been suggested as possible usable underground geological locations for carbon dioxide storage. Furthermore, injecting carbon dioxide into coal beds can improve the methane recovery. Due to importance of this issue, a novel investigation has been done on adsorption of carbon dioxide on various types of coal seam. This study has proposed four types of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approaches with different kernel functions to estimate excess adsorption of carbon dioxide in terms of temperature, pressure and composition of coal seams. The comparison of GPR outputs and actual excess adsorption expresses that proposed models have interesting accuracy and also the Exponential GPR approach has better performance than other ones. For this structure, R2=1, MRE=0.01542, MSE=0, RMSE=0.00019 and STD=0.00014 have been determined. Additionally, the impacts of effective parameters on excess adsorption capacity have been studied for the first time in literature. According to these results, the present work has valuable and useful tools for petroleum and chemical engineers who dealing with enhancement of recovery and environment protection.

We present a generic and open-source framework for the numerical modeling of the expected transport and storage mechanisms in unconventional gas reservoirs. These unconventional reservoirs typically contain natural fractures at multiple scales. Considering the importance of these fractures in shale gas production, we perform a rigorous study on the accuracy of different fracture models. The framework is validated against an industrial simulator and is used to perform a history-matching study on the Barnett shale. This work presents an open-source code that leverages cutting-edge numerical modeling capabilities like automatic differentiation, stochastic fracture modeling, multi-continuum modeling and other explicit and discrete fracture models. We modified the conventional mass balance equation to account for the physical mechanisms that are unique to organic-rich source rocks. Some of these include the use of an adsorption isotherm, a dynamic permeability-correction function, and an embedded discrete fracture model (EDFM) with fracture-well connectivity. We explore the accuracy of the EDFM for modeling hydraulically-fractured shale-gas wells, which could be connected to natural fractures of finite or infinite conductivity, and could deform during production. Simulation results indicates that although the EDFM provides a computationally efficient model for describing flow in natural and hydraulic fractures, it could be inaccurate under these three conditions: 1. when the fracture conductivity is very low. 2. when the fractures are not orthogonal to the underlying Cartesian grid blocks, and 3. when sharp pressure drops occur in large grid blocks with insufficient mesh refinement. Each of these results are very significant considering that most of the fluids in these ultra-low matrix permeability reservoirs get produced through the interconnected natural fractures, which are expected to have very low fracture conductivities. We also expect sharp pressure drops near the fractures in these shale gas reservoirs, and it is very unrealistic to expect the hydraulic fractures or complex fracture networks to be orthogonal to any structured grid. In conclusion, this paper presents an open-source numerical framework to facilitate the modeling of the expected physical mechanisms in shale-gas reservoirs. The code was validated against published results and a commercial simulator. We also performed a history-matching study on a naturally-fractured Barnett shale-gas well considering adsorption, gas slippage & diffusion and fracture closure as well as proppant embedment, using the framework presented. This work provides the first open-source code that can be used to facilitate the modeling and optimization of fractured shale-gas reservoirs. To provide the numerical flexibility to accurately model stochastic natural fractures that are connected to hydraulically-fractured wells, it is built atop other related open-source codes. We also present the first rigorous study on the accuracy of using EDFM to model both hydraulic fractures and natural fractures that may or may not be interconnected.

Calculating hydrocarbon components solubility of natural gases is known as one of the important issues for operational works in petroleum and chemical engineering. In this work, a novel solubility estimation tool has been proposed for hydrocarbon gases including methane, ethane, propane and butane in aqueous electrolyte solutions based on extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. Comparing the ELM outputs with a comprehensive real databank which has 1175 solubility points concluded to R-squared values of 0.985 and 0.987 for training and testing phases respectively. Furthermore, the visual comparison of estimated and actual hydrocarbon solubility leaded to confirm the ability of proposed solubility model. Additionally, sensitivity analysis has been employed on the input variables of model to identify their impacts on hydrocarbon solubility. Such a comprehensive and reliable study can help engineers and scientists to successfully determine the important thermodynamic properties which are key factors in optimizing and designing different industrial units such as refineries and petrochemical plants.

Advances in the availability of multitemporal and global built-/human-settlements datasets as derived from Remote Sensing (RS) can now provide globally consistent definitions of “human-settlement” at unprecedented spatial fineness. Yet, these data only provide a time-series of past extents and urban growth/expansion models have not had parallel advances at high-spatial resolution. We present a flexible modelling framework for producing annual built-settlement extents in the near future past last observed extents as provided by RS-based data. Using a random forest and autoregressive temporal models with short time-series of built-settlement extents and subnational level data, we predict annual 100m resolution binary settlement extents five years beyond the last observations. We applied this framework within varying contexts and predicted annual extents from 2010 to 2015. We found that our model framework preformed consistently across all sample countries and, when compared to time-specific imagery, demonstrated the capacity to capture human-settlement missed by the input time-series and validation extents. When comparing building footprints of small settlements to forecast extents, we saw that the modelling framework had a 12 percent increase in ground-truth accuracy. This framework shows promise for predicting near-future settlement extents, and provides a foundation for forecasts further into the future.

We examine the role of zonal Ekman transport along the coast of Senegal on 30 August, 2015 when the tropical disturbance associated with Tropical Cyclone Fred was located to the west of Senegal causing considerable coastal damage to coastal areas south of Dakar, Senegal. Ten-meter winds from three Weather Research and Forecast model simulations were used to estimate zonal Ekman transport, with the largest values found during the 30 August. The simulations are in agreement with limited coastal observations showing increasing southerly wind speeds during 30 August but are overestimated relative to the 3 coastal stations. The strong meridional winds translate into increased zonal Ekman transport to the coast of Senegal on 30 August. The use of a coupled ocean model will improve the estimates of Ekman transport along the Guinea-Senegalese coast. The observed damage suggests that artificial and natural barriers (mangroves) should be strengthened to protect coastal communities in Senegal.

Taking capital, manpower, and natural resources as inputs, regional GDP as expected output, and industrial pollution as undesired output, this study measures the ecological efficiency of various regions in China through the Global-Malmquist model. The results show a trend of an initial sharp decline in ecological efficiency followed by a gradual increase in the time dimension, but there is no significant correlation in the spatial dimension. Using the gravity model to quantify the attractiveness of the regions’ capital and human resources for collaborative innovation, it estimates the impact of collaborative innovation on eco-efficiency through the system-Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model. The results show that technological innovation capital in other regions has a negative “U” relationship with local ecological efficiency, while scientific and technological innovation human resources have a positive “U” relationship. In addition, government financial support in science and technology and the ecological efficiency of the previous period serve as promoting factors of the current local ecological efficiency, while the introduction of foreign technological innovation is likely to inhibit improvements in ecological efficiency. Based on these findings, this study puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for local governments to advance their development agendas alongside their environmental priorities in line with their specific circumstances.

This work focuses on expressing the TSP with Time Windows (TSPTW for short) as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problem. The time windows impose time constraints that a feasible solution must satisfy. These take the form of inequality constraints, which are known to be particularly difficult to articulate within the QUBO framework. This is, we believe, the first time this major obstacle is overcome and the TSPTW is cast in the QUBO formulation. We have every reason to anticipate that this development will lead to the actual execution of small scale TSPTW instances on the D-Wave platform.

Temperature-index modeling is used to determine the magnitude of temperature depression in the northern Sawatch Range required to maintain steady-state mass balances of six reconstructed glaciers at their extent during the local Last Glacial Maximum (LLGM), dated at ~21 ka. Assuming no significant differences in precipitation compared to modern values, mean annual temperatures in the region were on average 8.8 +0.5/–0.8 °C cooler than they are today. Allowing for modest increases or decreases in precipitation, required temperature depressions only differ by ± 0.2 °C. Temperature depression in the northern Sawatch Range are consistent, although slightly greater, with those determined in other ranges in Colorado using similar approaches. The estimates presented here are, however, substantially less than those suggested by several downscaled simulations of global LGM climate, that might be due to the need for improved calibration of such downscalings, or the models from which they are derived. Our estimates of LGM temperature depression are considerably greater than that previously determined in the study area and those in two other ranges in Colorado derived using different methodologies, the latter being most likely responsible for the discrepancies.

The change in both streamflow and baseflow in urban catchments has received significant attention in the latest decades as a result of their drastic variability. In this research, effects of climate variation and dynamics of land use are measured separately and in combination on streamflow and baseflow in the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed (Indianapolis, Indiana). These effects are examined using land use maps, statistical tests, and hydrological modeling. Transition matrix analysis was used to investigate the change in land use between 1992 and 2011. Temporal trends and changes in meteorological data were evaluated from 1980-2017 using the Mann-Kendall test. Changes in streamflow and baseflow were assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model using multiple scenarios that varied in land use and climate change. Evaluation of the model outputs showed streamflow and baseflow in LEC are well represented using SWAT; however, comparing the calibration and validation period showed SWAT performs better for the calibration. During 1992-2011, roughly 30% of the watershed experienced change, typically cultivated agricultural areas became urbanized. Baseflow is significantly affected by the observed urbanization; however, the combination of land and climate variability has a larger effect on the baseflow in LEC. Generally, the variability in the baseflow and streamflow appears to be heavily driven by the response to climate change in comparison to variability due to altered land use. The results reported herein expand the current understanding of variation in hydrological components, and provides useful information for management planning regarding water resources, as well as water and soil conservation in urban watersheds in Indiana and beyond.

In this effort we propose a data-driven learning framework for reduced order modeling of fluid dynamics. Designing accurate and efficient reduced order models for nonlinear fluid dynamic problems is challenging for many practical engineering applications. Classical projection-based model reduction methods generate reduced systems by projecting full-order differential operators into low-dimensional subspaces. However, these techniques usually lead to severe instabilities in the presence of highly nonlinear dynamics, which dramatically deteriorates the accuracy of the reduced-order models. In contrast, our new framework exploits linear multistep networks, based on implicit Adams-Moulton schemes, to construct the reduced system. The advantage is that the method optimally approximates the full order model in the low-dimensional space with a given supervised learning task. Moreover, our approach is non-intrusive, such that it can be applied to other complex nonlinear dynamical systems with sophisticated legacy codes. We demonstrate the performance of our method through the numerical simulation of a two-dimensional flow past a circular cylinder with Reynolds number Re = 100. The results reveal that the new data-driven model is significantly more accurate than standard projection-based approaches

Biowaste generated in the process of Oxytree cultivation and logging represents a potential source of energy. Torrefaction (a.k.a. low-temperature pyrolysis) is one of the methods proposed for the valorization of woody biomass. Still, energy is required for the torrefaction process during which the raw biomass becomes biochar with fuel properties similar to lignite coal. In this work, models describing the influence of torrefaction temperature and residence time on the resulting fuel properties (mass and energy yields, energy densification ratio, organic matter and ash content, combustible parts, lower and higher heating values, CHONS content, H:C and O:C ratios) were proposed according to the Akaike criterion. The degree of the models’ parameters matching the raw data expressed as the determination coefficient (R²) ranged from 0.52 to 0.92. Each model parameter was statistically significant (p<0.05). Estimations of the value and quantity of the produced biochar from 1 Mg of biomass residues were made based on two models and a set of simple assumptions. The value of torrefied biochar (€123.4·Mg^-1) was estimated based on the price of commercially available coal fuel and its lower heating value (LHV) for biomass moisture content of 50%, torrefaction for 20 min at 200 °C. This research could be useful to inform techno-economic analyses and decision-making process pertaining to the valorization of pruned biomass residues.

A conventional 2D numerical model is improved by incorporating three submodels to consider different effects of secondary flow and a module for cohesive sediment transport. The model is applied to a meandering reach of Yangtze River to investigate secondary flow effects on cohesive sediment deposition, and a preferable submodel is selected based on the flow simulation results. Sediment simulation results indicate that the improved model predictions are in better agreement with the measurements in planar distribution of deposition as the increased sediment deposits caused by secondary current on the convex bank have been well predicted. Secondary flow effects on predicted amount of deposition become more obvious during the period when the sediment load is low and velocity redistribution induced by the bed topography is evident. Such effects vary with the settling velocity and critical shear stress for deposition of cohesive sediment. The bed topography effects can be reflected by the secondary flow submodels.

The beautiful and stable posture is essential for ballet. Especially the pirouette which dancers balance themselves on their one leg is one of the most impressive postures. During the pirouette motion, loads from the rotation and the body weight are concentrated to the one leg. Proper ballet shoes can reduce the muscle burden and improve the stability. Four types of shoes; bare feet, running shoes, pointe shoes, and dance sneakers are analyzed. The motion capture system and SIMM are used for the analysis of muscle burden and stability during pirouette. The major 6 muscles in the leg (beceps femoris long head, beceps femoris short head, soleus, rectus femoris, gastrocnemius medialis, and gastrocnemius lateralis) are analyzed, and the effect of rotating velocity is considered. Dance sneakers are outstanding for improving the stability and lessening the muscle burdens in all conditions for beginners. That comes from the design feature of the divided shoe soles and protecting the ankle of the axis leg. With the results and analysis, the direction for design optimization of ballet shoes is suggested. Consequently, this research is about the verification of sports equipment using computer simulation with the musculoskeletal model from a scientific viewpoint of biomechanics.

Lung nodule segmentation in CT images and its subsequent volume analysis can help determinethe malignancy status of a lung nodule. While several efficient segmentation schemes have beenproposed, only a few studies evaluated the segmentation’s performance for large nodules. In thisresearch, we contribute a semi-automatic system which is capable of performing robust 3-D segmen-tations on both small and large nodules with good accuracy. The target CT volume is de-noisedwith an anisotropic diffusion filter and a region of interest is selected around the target nodule ona reference slice. The proposed model performs nodule segmentation by incorporating a mean in-tensity based threshold in Geodesic Active Contour model in level sets. We also devise an adaptivetechnique using image intensity histogram to estimate the desired mean intensity of the nodule.The proposed system is validated on both lung nodules and phantoms collected from publicly avail-able diverse databases. Quantitative and visual comparative analysis of the proposed work withthe Chan-Vese algorithm and statistic active contour model of 3D Slicer platform is also presented.The resulting mean spatial overlap between segmented nodules and reference nodules is 0.855, themean volume bias is 0.10±0.2 ml and the algorithm repeatability is 0.060 ml. The achieved resultssuggest that the proposed method can be used for volume estimations of small as well as large-sizednodules.

In this study, a novel theory to investigate the mass oscillation of particles is proposed. It has been proven that, at high-energy conditions, the fermion field described by Dirac’s Lagrangian interacts with the half-integer spin tachyon field with negative energy, causing the formation of composite particles whose mass depends on the total angular momentum. The proposed theory is based on a new interpretation of the Majorana equation for particles with arbitrary spin and shows that mass oscillation is a phenomenon in which the component of particle decay prevails over that of mixing mass states. Using the kinematic of Lemke for spacelike particle decay, we propose a mechanism able to explain the neutrino flavour change. The proposed mechanism is also investigated concerning the shape of its spectrum. Finally, the Lagrangian field of composite particles is formulated.

The relationships among the potential causes of a car and motorcycle collision involving turn maneuvers as well as the perception of rear and front turn signal (on/off) configuration is examined in this paper. The investigation has been based on data pooled from the answers of a survey proposed to 136 people, with special regards to the correct detection of indicators aspect. Experimental videos have been realized during the tests campaign, both in urban and suburban areas, using a 360-camera attached to a motorcyclist’s helmet, reproducing vehicular conflicts able to potentially generate crash risks. The detection of the blinker was combined with other factors (e.g. age, gender, location of the test site, presence of the car behind tester vehicles and if the bikers are also habitual car or bike drivers) in a stepwise logistic regression that modelled the odds of detecting the turn signal turned on as a function of all of these factors. The results suggest the existence of a connection between the detection of the turn signal aspect and some of the variables considered (e.g. age, being a cyclist or a car driver and the presence of a protecting car).

A novel drive current model covering the effects of source/drain voltage (VDS) and gate voltage (VGS) and incorporating drift and diffusion current on the surface channel at the nano-node level, especially beyond 28nm node is presented. The effect of the diffusion current added is more satisfactory to describe the behavior of the drive current in nano-node MOSFETs, fabricated with the atomic-layer-deposition (ALD) technology. This breakthrough in model establishment can expose the long and short channel devices together. Introducing the variables of VDS and VGS, the mixed current model more effectively and meaningfully demonstrates the drive current of MOSFETs under the operation of horizontal, vertical, or mixed electrical field. In comparison between the simulation and experimental consequences, the electrical performance is impressive. The error between both is less than 1%, better than the empirical adjustment to issue a set of drive current models.

Enterprises that seek for sustainable development should align economic interests with environmental and social requirements. It is not enough to take into account just these basics components. Technology plays a significant role in company activity. The aim of this article is to highlight the relationship between the dimensions characterising sustainability and to take a deeper look at the structure of the concept of sustainability so that to understand in more detail the completeness of the dimensions of sustainability. For achieving this aim is necessary through the analysis of researchers’ opinions to apply the logical assessment, systematisation, and comparison of information, selects the most important information describing the sustainability of technology, highlights the relationships between the technological aspect of sustainability and other sustainability dimensions, evaluates the technological processes of the corporate product in terms of sustainability, clarifies and presents arguments highlighting the importance of the technological aspect in sustainable business activity, rejects inappropriate arguments, identifies links between the arguments, and, basing on the information, proves and/or formulates anew some logical considerations to justify the full competency of the technological dimension in the sustainable development framework.

Five fundamental problems—neutrino mass, baryogenesis, dark matter, inflation, strong CP problem—are solved at one stroke in a model, dubbed as “SM-A-S-H” (Standard Model-Axion-Seesaw-Higgs portal inflation) by Andreas Ringwald et. al. The Standard Model (SM) particle content is extended by three right-handed SM-singlet neutrinos $N_i$, a vector-like color triplet quark $Q$, a complex SM-singlet scalar field $\sigma$ that stabilises the Higgs potential, all of them being charged under Peccei-Quinn (PQ) $U(1)$ symmetry, the vacuum expectation value $v_\sigma\sim10^{11}$ GeV breaks the lepton number and the Peccei-Quinn symmetry simultaneously. We found that numerically SMASH model not only solves five fundamental problems but also the sixth problem “Vacuum Metastability” through the extended scalar sector and can predict approximately correct atmospheric neutrino mass splitting around 0.05 eV and the solar neutrino mass splitting around 0.009 eV.

The development and generalization of Digital Volume Correlation (DVC) on X-ray computed tomography data highlight the issue of long term storage. The present paper proposes a new model-free method for pruning the DVC data. The size of the remaining sampled data can be user-defined, depending on the needs concerning storage space. The data pruning procedure is deeply linked to hyper-reduction techniques. The DVC data of a resin-bonded sand tested in uniaxial compression is used as an illustrating example. The relevance of the pruned data is tested afterwards for model calibration. A new Finite Element Model Updating (FEMU) technique coupled with an hybrid hyper-reduction method is used to successfully calibrate a constitutive model of the resin bonded sand with the pruned data only.

In this article it is shown how Milgrom’s acceleration constant is related with the Ω_Λ, Ω_m and Ω_B values of the matter distribution within observable universe as defined in the Standard Model of Cosmology, established by the Planck Collaboration Group. The result is a two-parameter model for the observable universe. The two parameters are the age of the universe and Milgrom’s acceleration constant. It is shown that these are sufficient to calculate the amounts of matter and dark energy in the universe, as well as the contributions of dark matter and baryonic matter in the matter part. The numerical results are in agreement with those of the Lamda-CDM model.

During the last decades, the production systems have developed different strategies to increase their competitiveness in the global market. In a manufacturing and services systems, Lean Manufacturing has been consolidated through the correct implementation of its tools. The present paper presents a case study developed in a Food Packer company where a Simulation Model was considered as an alternative to reduce the waste time generated by the poor distribution of operations and transportation areas for a product within the factory. As a matter of fact, the company has detected problems on the layout distribution that prevents to fulfill the market demand. In addition, the principal aim was to create a simulation model to test different hypothetical scenarios and alternative designs for the layout distribution without modifying its facilities. Moreover, the implemented methodology was based on classical models of simulation projects and a compendium of the manufacturing systems optimization by simulation process used during the last ten years. Also, a mathematic model supported by the Promodel ® simulation software was developed considering the company characteristics; along with the model development, it was possible to compare the production system performance from the percentage of used locations, the percentage of resources utilization, the number of finished products, and the level of Work in Process (WIP). Finally, the verification and validation stages were performed before running the scenarios in the real production area. The results generated by the implementation of the project represent an increase of 68% in the production capacity and a reduction of 5% in the WIP. In addition, both outcomes are associated with the resources management, which were reassigned to other production areas.

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) influences fire activity at landscape scale and fire behavior in laboratory experiments. However, field evidences linking LFMC to fire behavior are very limited despite numerous field experiments. In the present study, we reanalyze a shrubland fire dataset with a special focus on LFMC to explain this counterintuitive outcome. We found that this controversy might result from three reasons. First, the range of experimental LFMC data was too moist to reveal significant effect with the widespread exponential or power functions. Indeed, LFMC exhibited a strong effect below 100%, but marginal above this threshold, contrary to these functions. Second, we found that the LFMC significance was unlikely when the size of the dataset was smaller than 40. Finally, a complementary analysis suggested that 10 to 15% of random measurement error in variables could lead to an underestimation by 30 % of the LFMC effect. The effect of LFMC in field experiments is thus stronger than previously reported in the range prevailing during the actual French fire season and in accordance with observations at different scales. This highlights the need to improve our understanding of the relationship between LFMC and fire behavior to refine fire danger predictions.

A heat transfer model, has determined millimeter crude oil thicknesses on saltwater at night. Model inputs are calibrated thermographic imagery, weather station data, metrological observations, and crude oil thermal conductivity. Outdoor field-testing was performed at the National Oil Spill Response & Renewable Energy Test Facility (Ohmsett) to determine model accuracy. Alaskan North Slope (ANS), Hoover Offshore Oil Pipeline System Blend (HOOPS), and ROCK crude oils were placed at varying mm depths. A roof-top mounted thermal camera measured the average oil surface temperature for each target and converted to oil spill thickness. The fidelity of the thickness measurements is dependent on the accurate measurement of the atmospheric and weather parameters, sea state, heat transfer constants, crude oil evaporation rates, and calibration and stability of the thermal camera.

Safety management assessment systems for national level units’ in South Korea focus on responding capacity to cope with impending accident occurrence and danger occurrence. Since the four stage systems for prevention-preparation-response-recovery, which are core elements of national disaster management, assess the capacities by item such as those of individuals, disaster management departments, institutions, and management networks, there is no assessment function for the organic operation states of the entire systems. Therefore, for efficient disaster management, systematic evaluation indices that will enable active pre-checks in departments in organizations should be developed in place of the existing simply checking methods. In this study, an assessment model that will enable active disaster management centered on practice was developed using resilience engineering techniques. This model consists of disaster management items from the viewpoint of proactive responses instead of prevention. A total of 56 items that constitute four capacities; which are prediction (13 items), monitoring (14 items), proactive response (15 items), and safety learning (14 items) capacities were adopted in this model through Delphi analysis. Institutional capacities for infectious disease disaster management were evaluated based on this model and the resultant scores were prediction 4.41, monitoring 4.63, proactive response 4.69, safety learning 4.56 out of the full score of 5.0 points with an overall average of 4.51. This is an excellent capacity management score comparable to the score 4.57 of diagnosis of similar capacities by the WHO\_JEE (The Joint External Evaluation) in 2017. In fact, in 2015, when infectious disease capacity management was poor, in case of MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) infectious disease spread in South Korea, 36 patients died and 6,729 patients were isolated. However, through capacity reinforcement, in the case of MERS occurrence in South Korea in September 2018, a management capacity that prevented spread was shown as one confirmed case was completely cured in 10 days and 21 contacts were isolated and tested negative. Therefore, this capacity management assessment model is judged to be usable in enhancing disaster response and management capacities.

Regression models form the core of the discipline of econometrics. One of the basic assumptions of classical linear regression model is that the values of the explanatory variables are fixed in repeated sampling. However, in most of the real life cases, particularly in economics the assumption of fixed regressors is not always tenable. Under a non-experimental or uncontrolled environment, the dependent variable is often under the influence of explanatory variables that are stochastic in nature. There is a huge literature related to stochastic regressors in various aspects. In this paper, a historical perspective on some of the works related to stochastic regressor is being tried to pen down based on literature search.

The Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) of the Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) increases the chance of acquiring images with greater clarity at eight times a day and is equipped with spectral bands suitable for monitoring crop yield with a moderate spatial resolution. The objectives of this study were to classify nationwide paddy fields and to project rice (Oryza sativa) yield and production using the grid-based GRAMI-rice model and GOCI satellite products over South Korea from 2011 to 2014. Solar insolation and temperatures were obtained from COMS and the Korea local analysis and prediction system for model inputs, respectively. The paddy fields and transplanting dates were estimated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance and land cover products. The crop model was calibrated using observed yield data in 11 counties and was applied to 62 counties in South Korea. The overall accuracies of the detected paddy fields ranged from 89.5 to 90.2%. The simulated rice yields statistically agreed with observed yields, with root-mean-square errors of 0.219 to 0.451 ton ha-1 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.241 to 0.733 in four years, respectively. According to paired t-tests (α = 0.05), the simulated and observed rice yields were not significantly different. These results demonstrate the possible development of a crop information delivery system that can classify land cover, simulate crop yield, and monitor regional crop production on a national scale.

This paper investigates how blocks of buildings could fit into load shedding strategies. It focuses in particular on what could be the effects on peak shaving, occupants’ thermal comfort or CO2 emissions reduction and how to quickly quantify them. To achieve this goal, we focused on a new residential district, thermally fed by heat pumps. Four modeling approaches were confronted in order to estimate buildings' responses to load shedding orders. On the one hand, a quick estimation of the peak shaving impact can rely on experimental results if the buildings' envelope and uses of the experimentation match those of the study case. On the other hand, thermal simulation models allow us to assess thermal comfort while considering the building physical response. Finally, a hybrid modeling approach can provide a good compromise between modeling rapidity and accuracy of the impacts estimation. At district scale, it may be necessary to mix modeling approaches, from experimental results to detailed thermal models. Accuracy is not guaranteed for all approaches so that the choice should be made carefully in regards to study needs. However, results are sufficient to compare the effects of load shedding strategies on peak shaving, thermal comfort, and CO2 emissions reductions.

This study presents a pre-processing approach adopted for the radar reflectivity data assimilation and results of simulations with the Harmonie numerical weather prediction model. The method shows an improvement of precipitation prediction within the radar location area in both the rain rates and spatial pattern presentation. With the assimilation of radar data, the model simulates larger water content in the middle troposphere within the layer from 1 to 6 km, with major variations at 2.5–3 km; it also reproduces better the mesoscale belt and cell patterns of precipitation fields.

Measuring farms sustainable innovativeness is a big challenge for both practitioners and academics. The need of sustainable innovativeness assessment in the agricultural business is reasoned in the article. Unfortunately, the features of the farms sustainable innovativeness measurement have not yet been investigated, and any objective methodology for innovativeness assessment is not presented as well. The objective of this article is to find possibility of use some methodology for measuring farm sustainable innovativeness, which would allow ranking farms by this aspect. The article demonstrates the need for multi-criteria method of innovativeness measurement and substantiates the complex proportional assessment method (Copras) as the most appropriate for solution of indicated problem. The model for use of offered method is presented and the practical application of the model is submitted. The final result refuted the opinion that farm innovation depends only on the possibilities to invest funds in a certain area. Indeed, staff creativity and the position of the management regarding certain areas of business make an essential contribution to the sustainable innovativeness level in the agricultural organizations.

The conventional rolled-up model for carbon nanocones assumes that the cone is constructed from a rolled-up graphene sheet joined seamlessly, which predicts five distinct vertex angles. This model completely ignores any effects due to the changing curvature and all bond lengths and bond angles are assumed to be those for the planar graphene sheet. Clearly curvature effects will become more important closest to the cone vertex, and especially so for the cones with the smaller apex angles. Here we construct carbon nanocones which in the assembled cone are assumed to comprise bond lengths and bond angles which are, as far as possible, equal throughout the structure at the same distance from the conical apex. Predicted bond angles and bond lengths are shown to agree well with those obtained by relaxing the conventional rolled-up model using the LAMMPS software. The major objective here is not simply to model physically realisable carbon nanocones for which numerical procedures are far superior, but rather to produce an improved model that takes into account curvature effects close to the vertex, and from which we may determine an analytical formula which represents an improvement on that for the conventional rolled-up model.