As the structure of horizontal gas wells is more complicated than that of vertical wells, the form of the liquid-carrying in different sections does not well agree. This makes it problematic to apply the widely used liquid-carrying theory of vertical gas wells in horizontal gas wells. Since the theory focused on the critical gas flow rate, it cannot quantify how much liquid it can remove. Simultaneously, it ignores the fact that the liquid-carrying ability of gas flow is limited and the producing liquid has a certain amount of flowing energy. In this study, the gas-liquid flow law of horizontal gas wells and wellhead drainage stability in different tubing depths were firstly studied. Then, the stability of gas drainage for different tubing depths was analyzed and confirmed. Given the disadvantages of the typical theory of critical gas flow, the mathematical model of different tubing depths for gas drainage is established for horizontal gas wells. The innovative model could take the energy of gas flow and liquid flow into account, and quantify the liquid volume which was removed. By verifying the model with the experiments, the result showed that the relative error of the model is generally less than 10%. It shows the research could provide a scientific basis for the analysis and liquid-carrying capacity for horizontal gas wells.

Therapeutic antibodies targeting immune checkpoints have shown limited efficacy in clinical trials in glioblastoma (GBM) patients. Ultrasound-mediated blood-brain barrier opening (UMBO) using low-intensity pulsed ultrasound improved drug delivery to the brain. We explored the safety and the efficacy of UMBO plus immune checkpoint inhibitors in preclinical models of GBM. A Blood-brain barrier (BBB) opening was performed using a 1 MHz preclinical ultrasound system in combination with 10µl/g microbubbles. Brain penetration of immune checkpoint inhibitors was determined, and immune cell populations were evaluated using flow cytometry. The impact of repeated treatments on survival was determined. In syngeneic GL261-bearing immunocompetent mice, we showed that UMBO safely and repeatedly open the BBB. BBB opening was confirmed visually and microscopically using Evans’s blue dye and magnetic resonance imaging. UMBO plus anti-PDL-1 was associated with a significant improvement of the overall survival compared to anti-PD-L1 alone. Using mass spectroscopy, we showed that the penetration of therapeutic antibodies can be increased when delivered intravenously compared to non-sonicated brains. Furthermore, we observed an enhancement of activated microglia percentage when combined with anti-PD-L1. Here, we report that the combination of UMBO and anti-PD-L1 dramatically increases GL261-bearing mice's survival compared to their counterparts treated with anti-PD-L1 alone. Our study highlights the BBB as a limitation to overcome to increase the efficacy of anti-PD-L1 in GBM and supports clinical trials combining UMBO and in GBM patients.

This study employs a high-fidelity numerical framework to determine the plastic material flow patterns and temperature distributions that lead to void formation during friction stir welding (FSW), and to relate the void morphologies to the underlying alloy material properties and process conditions. Three aluminum alloys, viz., 6061-T6, 7075-T6, and 5053-H18 were investigated under varying traverse speeds. The choice of aluminum alloys enables investigation of a wide range of thermal and mechanical properties. The numerical simulations were validated using experimental observations of void morphologies in these three alloys. Temperatures, plastic strain rates, and material flow patterns are considered. The key results from this study are: (1) The predicted stir zone and void morphology are in good agreement with the experimental observations, (2) The temperature and plastic strain-rate maps in the steady-state process conditions show a strong dependency on the alloy type and traverse speeds, (3) The material velocity contours provide a good insight into the material flow in the stir zone for the FSW process conditions that result in voids as well as those that do not result in voids. The numerical model and the ensuing parametric studies presented in this work provide a framework for understanding material flow under different process conditions in aluminum alloys, and potentially in other alloys. Furthermore, the utility of the numerical model for making quantitative predictions and investigating different process parameters to reduce void formation is demonstrated.

The paper analyses the national DK-model Hydrological Information and Prediction (HIP) system and HIP portal viewed as a ‘Digital Twin’ and how the introduction of real-time dynamic updating of the DK-model HIP simulations can give room for plug-in sub-models with real-time boundary conditions made available from a HIP portal. The possible feedback to a national real-time risk knowledge base during extreme events (flooding and drought) is also discussed. Under climate change conditions, Denmark is likely to experience more rain in winter, more evapotranspiration in summer, intensified cloudbursts, drought, and sea level rise. These challenges have been addressed as part of the Joint Governmental Digitalization Strategy 2016-2020 for better use and sharing of public data about the terrain, water, and climate to support climate adaptation, water management, and disaster risk reduction. This initiative included the development of a new web-based data portal (HIP portal) developed by the Danish Agency for Data Supply and Infrastructure (SDFI). GEUS delivered 5 terra-byte of hydrological model data to the portal with robust calibration methods and hybrid Machine Learning (ML) being key parts of the deliverables. The paper discusses the challenges and potentials of further developing the HIP Digital Twin with ‘plug-in Digital Twins’ for local river basins including feedback to the national level.

For a decade, the studies of dynamic control for unmanned aerial vehicles took a large interest, where drones as a useful technology in different areas were always suffering from several issues like instability-high energy consumption of batteries - inaccuracy of tracking targets. Different approaches are proposed for dealing with the non-linearity issues which present the most important features of this system. This paper describes our focus on the most common control strategies, known as model predictive control MPC, by developing a model based on the sensors embedded in our Tello quadrotor used for indoor purposes. The original controller of Tello quadrotor is supposed to be a slave, where the designed model predictive controller is created in MATLAB and imported to another embedded system, considered as a master; the objective of this model is to track the reference trajectory, almost keeping the stability of the system and ensure the low energy consumption. In the first part, a profound description of the modelling process of a dynamic model for drones is presented, explaining the design of MPC controller with both linear and non-linear strategies built in MATLAB. In the final part, simulation and results are discussed regarding its behaviour and performance, highlighting the MPC model's important role on drones' energy consumption profile.

A crop-weed simulation model is presented to compare and evaluate Integrated Weed Management (IWM) strategies. Specifically, the model was parameterized for soybean crops in competition with Euphorbia davidii Subils. We used both, weed and crop demographic data surveyed in agronomic fields of the central zone of the Buenos Aires province, Argentina, throughout two crop cycles (2011/2012 and 2013/2014). The proposed model underwent a calibration process and subsequent validation with 70/30 % data split respectively (N=37). Two annual-based and one multiannual-based case studies were simulated to demonstrate the performance of the model. Different IWM strategies were compared under both, operational and tactical planning horizons through the evaluation of different model outcomes (i.e. crop yield, interspecific competition, economic return, and environmental impact). Our case studies results suggest that the inclusion of cultural management practices could reduce weed interspecific competition by 46 to 97 % and weed seed production by 40 to 89%. An increment in both expected crop yield, by 6 to 20%, and annual gross margin, by 44 to 199 US$.ha-1, were obtained in silico for similar levels of environmental impact.

Reliable quantification of pulmonary arterial pressure is essential in the diagnostic and prognostic assessment of a range of cardiovascular pathologies including rheumatic heart disease, yet an accurate and routinely available method for its quantification remains elusive. This work proposes an approach to infer pulmonary arterial pressure based on scientific machine learning techniques and non-invasive, clinically available measurements. A 0-D multicompartment model of the cardiovascular system was optimized using several optimization algorithms, subject to forward-mode automatic differentiation. Measurement data were synthesized from known parameters to represent the healthy, mitral regurgitant, aortic stenosed and combined valvular disease situations with and without pulmonary hypertension. Eleven model parameters were selected for optimization based on 95 % explained variation in mean pulmonary arterial pressure. A hybrid Adam and limited-memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno optimizer yielded the best results with input data including valvular flow rates, heart chamber volume changes and systematic arterial pressure. Mean absolute percentage errors ranged from 1.8 % to 3.78 % over the simulated test cases. The model was able to capture pressure dynamics under hypertensive conditions with pulmonary arterial systole, diastole, and mean pressure average percentage errors of 1.12 %, 2.49 % and 2.14 %, respectively. The relatively low errors highlight the potential of the proposed model to recover pulmonary pressures for diseased heart valve and pulmonary hypertensive conditions.

Cultural practices and development level can influence a population’s household structures and mixing patterns. Within some populations households can be organized across multiple dwellings. This likely affects the spread of infectious disease spreads through these communities, however, current demographic data collection tools do not record these data. Methods: Between June–October 2018, the Contact And Mobility Patterns in remote Aboriginal Australian communities (CAMP-remote) pilot study recruited Aboriginal mothers with infants in a remote northern Australian community to complete a monthly iPad-based contact survey. Results: Thirteen mother-infant pairs (participants) completed 69 study visits between recruitment and the end of May 2019. Participants reported they and their other children slept in 28 dwellings during the study. The median dwelling occupancy, defined as people sleeping in the same dwelling on the previous night, was nine (range: 3.5–25). Participants who completed at least three responses (n=8) slept in a median of three dwellings (range: 2–9). Each month a median of 28% (range: 0%–63%) of the participants travelled out of the community. Including these data in disease transmission models amplified estimates of infectious disease spread in the study community, compared to models parameterized using census data. Conclusions: The lack of data on mixing patterns in populations where households can be organized across dwellings may negatively impact the accuracy of infectious disease models for these communities and the efficacy of public health actions they inform.

Using the 2011-2020 digital inclusive finance data released by Peking University and the index system constructed by the Blue Book of China Rural Revitalization and Development Index (2018), this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of the digital inclusive finance and the rural revitaliza-tion from time and space dimensions with the help of kernel density estimation, Markov chain and Moran index. Using The Gini coefficient decomposition method to analyze the source of differ-ences in digital inclusive finance, and then using the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and ge-ographically weighted regression (GWR) model to study the boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization from the perspective of spatial aggregation and spatial differentia-tion, respectively. The results show that: (1) The growth rate of China's digital inclusive finance slows down year by year, and the inter-provincial differences increase year by year and show gradient characteristics, indicating that there may be a trend of multipolar differentiation. The overall level of Rural Revitalization shows an increasing trend, and the gap between provinces is still apparent. (2) The evolution of digital inclusive finance and rural revitalization is a slow ad-justment process, and there has been no cross-level jump in the past ten years. In digital inclusive finance, the liquidity from the highest and lowest levels to the medium level is high. However, the liquidity in the states of rural revitalization development level is not high. (3) Rural revitalization has a positive spatial spillover effect. The level of rural revitalization in the western area is signif-icantly lower than in the eastern area. At the same time, there is no significant difference between the east and central areas. The depth of the use of digital inclusive finance has a significant positive impact on the revitalization and development of rural areas, indicating that the further promotion of digital inclusive finance business in rural areas can substantially boost the revitalization of rural areas. (4) The boosting effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization shows prominent spatial differentiation characteristics. The depth of use and the degree of digitization generally show a positive impact. The central and eastern coastal cities have the highest impact, decreasing toward the southwest and northeast. The areas with the lowest usage depth impact are clustered in the northeast, and the areas with the lowest digitization impact are clustered in the southwest.

The path towards decarbonization requires a progressive adaptation of all refrigeration systems, but only stationary ones have been intensely studied to improve their environmental performance. However, refrigerated transport is a vital piece of the cold chain, and it must be considered in the green transition. In this paper, we propose a model for a hybrid refrigerated van that includes photovoltaic panels and electric batteries to decrease total greenhouse gas emissions from the engine. Thermal, electrical, and battery sub-models are considered and integrated into the comprehensive hybrid solar-powered refrigerated van model. Different technologies are compared in economic terms, including Lithium and Lead-acid batteries and three different types of photovoltaic panels. The model was validated regarding van fuel consumption, showing a 4% deviation. Single and multiple delivery scenarios are considered to assess the energetic, economic, and environmental benefits. Monthly CO2,e emissions could be reduced to 20% compared to a standard refrigerated van. Despite the environmental benefits provided by this sustainable solution, the payback period is still too long (above 20 years) because of the necessary investment to adapt the vehicle and considering fuel and electricity prices currently.

This article presents an estimation of the hypertension risk based on a dataset on 1007 individuals. The application of a Tobit Model shows that “Hypertension” is positively associated to “Age”, “BMI-Body Mass Index”, and “Heart Rate”. The data show that the element that has the greatest impact in determining inflation risk is “BMI-Body Mass Index”. An analysis was then carried out using the fuzzy c-Means algorithm optimized with the use of the Silhouette coefficient. The result shows that the optimal number of clusters is 9. A comparison was then made between eight different machine-learning algorithms for predicting the value of the Hypertension Risk. The best performing algorithm is the Gradient Boosted Trees Regression according to the analyzed dataset. The results show that there are 37 individuals who have a predicted hypertension value greater than 0.75, 35 individuals who have a predicted hypertension value between 0.5 and 0.75, while 227 individuals have a hypertension value between 0.0 and 0.5 units.

Digital health research is an emerging discipline that requires easy-to-understand theoretical frameworks and implementation models for digital health providers in health and social care settings. The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened demand for digital health discipline-specific instruction on ‘how to’ manage evidence-based digital health transformation. Access to the use of these models guarantees that digital health providers can investigate phenomena using safe and suitable approaches and methods to conduct research and identify answers to challenges and problems that arise in health and social care settings. The COMPASS theory is designed to aid transformation of health and social care environments. A navigational rose of primary quadrants is divided by four main compass points, with person-centred care being central to the philosophy. Two axes produce Cartesian planes that intersect to form a box plot, which can be used to discover human and physical resource weightings to augment digital health research design and implementation. A third continuum highlights stakeholders' capabilities, critical for any multidisciplinary study. The COMPASS mnemonic guides end-users through the process of design, development, implementation, evaluation, and communication of digital health transformations. The theory's foundations are presented and explained in context of the 'new normal' of health and social care delivery.

We consider partition functions, in the form of state sums, and associated probabilistic measures for aperiodic substrates described by model sets and their associated tiling spaces. We propose model set tiling spaces as microscopic models for small scales in the context of quantum gravity. Model sets possess special self-similarity properties that allow us to consider implications on large and observable scales from the underlying (non-ergodic) dynamics. In particular we consider the implication of the underlying aperiodic substrate for the well known problem of time in quantum gravity, and propose a correspondence between small and large scales, the so-called ergodic correspondence, that addresses the emergence of matter properties and spacetime structure. In the process we find a possible bound in the mass spectrum of fundamental particles.

Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is the most common endocrine malignancy which diagnosis and recurrences still challenge clinicians. New perspectives to overcome those issues could come from the study of extracellular vesicles (EVs) populations and content. Here, we aimed to elucidate the heterogeneity of EVs circulating in tumor and the changes in their microRNA content during cancer progression. Using a mouse model expressing BRAF^V600E, we isolated and characterized EVs from thyroid tissue by ultracentrifugations and elucidated their microRNA content by small RNA sequencing. Cellular origin of EVs was investigated by ExoView and that of deregulated EV-microRNA by qPCR on FACS-sorted cell populations. We found that PTC released more EVs bearing epithelial and immune markers, as compared to healthy thyroid, and that changes in EV-microRNAs abundance were mainly due to their deregulated expression in thyrocytes. Pathway analysis showed that the more abundant EV-microRNAs could impact on immune processes. Altogether, our work provides a full description of in vivo-derived EVs produced by, and within, normal and cancerous thyroid. We elucidated the global EV-microRNAs signature, the dynamic loading of microRNAs in EVs upon BRAF^V600E induction, and their cellular origin. Thyroid tumor-derived EV-microRNAs could support the establishment of a permissive immune microenvironment.

Background: In Switzerland, Aedes albopictus is well established in Ticino, south of the Alps, where surveillance and control are implemented. The mosquito has also been observed in Swiss cities north of the Alps. Decision-making tools are urgently needed by the local authorities in order to optimize surveillance and control. Methods: A regularized logistic regression was used to link the long-term dataset of Ae. albopictus occurrence in Ticino with socio-environmental predictors. The probability of establishment of Ae. albopictus was extrapolated to Switzerland and more finely to the cities of Basel and Zurich. Results: The model performed well, with an AUC of 0.86. Ten so-cio-environmental predictors were selected as informative, including the road-based distance in minutes of travel by car from the nearest cell established in the previous year. The risk maps showed high suitability for Ae. albopictus establishment in the Central Plateau, the area of Basel and the lower Rhone Valley in the Canton of Valais. Conclusions: The areas identified as suitable for Ae. albopictus establishment are consistent with the actual current findings of tiger mosquito. Our approach provides a useful tool to prompt authorities’ intervention in the areas where there is higher risk of introduction and establishment of Ae. albopictus.

Training supervised machine learning models requires labeled examples. A judicious choice of examples is helpful when there is a significant cost associated with assigning labels. This article improves upon a promising extant method – Batch-mode Expected Model Change Maximization (B-EMCM) method – for selecting examples to be labeled for regression problems. Specifically, it develops and evaluates alternate strategies for adaptively selecting batch size in B-EMCM. By determining the cumulative error that occurs from the estimation of the stochastic gradient descent, a stop criteria for each iteration of the batch can be specified to ensure that selected candidates are the most beneficial to model learning. This new methodology is compared to B-EMCM via mean absolute error and root mean square error over ten iterations benchmarked against machine learning data sets. Using multiple data sets and metrics across all methods, one variation of AB-EMCM, the max bound of the accumulated error (AB-EMCM Max), showed the best results for an adaptive batch approach. It achieved better root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) than the other adaptive and non-adaptive batch methods while reaching the result in nearly the same number of iterations as the non-adaptive batch methods.

Experimentally tractable organisms like C. elegans, Drosophila, zebrafish, and mouse are popular models for addressing diverse questions in biology. In 1997, two of the most valuable invertebrate model organisms to date – C. elegans and Drosophila – were found to be much more closely related to each other than expected. C. elegans and Drosophila belong to the nematodes and arthropods respectively, and these two phyla and six other phyla make up a clade of molting animals referred to as the Ecdysozoa. The other ecdysozoan phyla could be valuable models for comparative biology, taking advantage of the rich and continual sources of research findings as well as tools from both C. elegans and Drosophila. But when the Ecdysozoa was first recognized, few tools were available for laboratory studies in any of these six other ecdysozoan phyla. In 1999 I began an effort to develop tools for studying one such phylum, the tardigrades. Here, I describe how the tardigrade species Hypsibius exemplaris and tardigrades more generally have emerged over the past two decades as valuable new models for answering diverse questions. To date, these questions have included how animal body plans evolve and how biological materials can survive some remarkably extreme conditions.

Lead-210 from natural atmospheric fallout is widely used in multidisciplinary studies to date recent sediments. Some of the ²¹⁰Pb-based dating models can produce historical records of sediment accumulation rates (SAR) and initial activity concentrations ( ). The former have been profusely used to track past changes in the sedimentary conditions. Both physical magnitudes are differently affected by model errors (those arising for the partial or null accomplishment of some model assumptions). This work is aimed at assessing the effects on SAR and of model errors in the CRS, CS, PLUM and TERESA dating models, due to random variability in ²¹⁰Pb fluxes, which is a usual sedimentary condition. Synthetic cores are used as virtual laboratories for this goal. Independently of the model choice, SARs are largely affected by model errors, resulting in some large and spurious deviations from the true values. This questions their general use for tracking past environmental changes. are less sensitive to model errors and their trends of change with time may reflect real changes in sedimentary conditions, as it is shown with some real cores from varved sediments.

This study contributes to the debate on accessibility of higher education in Chile, focusing on both socioeconomic and geospatial dimensions of access to university study. The central question we address in this paper is the following: Does geography (physical distance and neighborhood effects) play a significant role in determining accessibility of higher education in Chile? We use Heckman probit-type (Heckit) models to adjust for selection in the process of completing the trajectory towards higher education – that is, pre-selection, application to study at university, and ultimately admission (or denial) to a higher education institution. The results shows that the geospatial elements have a significant local effect on the student’s application and access to Chilean universities.

When presenting special relativity, it is customary to single out the so-called paradoxes. One of these paradoxes is the formal occurrence of speeds exceeding the speed of light. An essential part of such paradoxes arises from the incompleteness of the relativistic calculus of velocities. In special relativity, the additive group is used for velocities. However, the use of only group operations imposes artificial restrictions on possible computations. Naive expansion to vector space is usually done by using non-relativistic operations. We propose to consider arithmetic operations in the special theory of relativity in the framework of the Cayley–Klein model for projective spaces. We show that such paradoxes do not arise in the framework of the proposed relativistic extension of algebraic operations.

The relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a popular diagnostic tool in forecast verification, with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) used as a verification metric measuring the discrimination ability of a forecast. Along with calibration, discrimination is deemed as a fundamental probabilistic forecast attribute. In particular, in ensemble forecast verification, AUC provides a basis for the comparison of potential predictive skill of competing forecasts. While this approach is straightforward when dealing with forecasts of common events (e.g. probability of precipitation), the AUC interpretation can turn out to be oversimplistic or misleading when focusing on rare events (e.g. precipitation exceeding some warning criterion). How should we interpret AUC of ensemble forecasts when focusing on rare events? How can changes in the way probability forecasts are derived from the ensemble forecast affect AUC results? How can we detect a genuine improvement in terms of predictive skill? Based on verification experiments, a critical eye is cast on the AUC interpretation to answer these questions. As well as the traditional trapezoidal approximation and the well-known bi-normal fitting model, we discuss a new approach which embraces the concept of imprecise probabilities and relies on the subdivision of the lowest ensemble probability category.

Introduction: Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention has been implemented in several countries. Previous literature has shown that its cost-effectiveness (and, under some specifications, cost-saving character) is dependent on the reduction in price due to generics, the time-horizon and its effectiveness. The intervention has never been studied in Catalonia, a territory with extensive implementation. Methods: Economic evaluation of the implementation of HIV pre-exposition prophylaxis using administrative data from Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) who receive the treatment (at the generic price). A deterministic compartmental model and a social perspective with a micro-costing approach over the time horizon 2022-2062 are used. A baseline 86% effectiveness of PrEP is assumed. Results: Daily oral PrEP is found to be cost-saving: discounted savings in costs are attained after 16 years, and after 40 years they reach 81 million euros. In terms of health indicators, 10,322 additional discounted QALYs are generated by the intervention. Results are sensitive to sexual behavioral patterns among MSM, the price of PrEP (reduced if offered on-demand), its effectiveness and the discount rate. Conclusions: The use and promotion of PrEP in Catalonia is predicted to result in substantial health and monetary benefits because of reductions in HIV infections. Short-term investments in the promotion of PrEP will result in important cost-savings in the long term.

Land use land cover (LULC) changes are highly pronounced in African countries, as they are characterized by an agriculture-based economy and a rapidly growing population. Understanding how land use/cover change (LULCC) influence watershed hydrology will enable local governments and policymakers to formulate and implement effective and appropriate response strategies to minimize the undesirable effects of future land use/cover change or modification and sustain the local socio-economic situation. The hydrological response of the Ethiopia Fincha’a watershed to LULCC happened during the last 30 years was investigated comparing the situation in three reference years: 1994, 2004 and 2018. The information was derived from Landsat sensors, respectively Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS. The various LULC classes were derived via ArcGIS using a supervised classification system, and the accuracy assessment was done using confusion matrixes. For all the years investigated the overall accuracies and the kappa coefficients were higher than 80%, with 2018 as the more accurate year. The analysis of LULCC revealed that forest decreased by 19.99% between the years 1994-2004, and it decreased by 11.85% in the following period 2004-2018. Such decline in areas covered by forest is correlated to an expansion of cultivated land by 16.4% and 10.81%, respectively. After having evaluated the LULCC at the basin scale, the watershed was divided into 18 sub-watersheds, which contained 176 Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs), having a specific LULC. Accounting for such a detailed subdivision of the Fincha’a watershed, the SWAT model was firstly calibrated and validated on past data, and then applied to infer information on the hydrological response of each HRU on LULCC. The modelling results pointed out a general increase of average water flow, both during dry and wet periods, as a consequence of a shift of land coverage from forest and grass towards settlements and build-up areas. The present analysis pointed out the need of accounting for past and future LULCC in modelling the hydrological responses of rivers at the watershed scale.

This study will investigate different signals and events/news that determined the stock market's movements. As we know, many factors affect the stock market on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis, e.g., rate of interest, exchange rate, and oil prices, etc. Our research will investigate the impact of daily events/news in the KSE-100 index due to several policies announced and events/news in the country because the daily movements in the stock market can be determined only by different signals and events/news. Time series data is collected daily for particular reasons from "The News" (Daily Newspaper, Sunday edition) from 2010 to 2019. The results of this study show that political and global news affects the stock market index ferociously. For investors, the investment in blue chips is not less than a safe haven. When day-to-day transactions are concerned, there is always a higher panic attack than the herd behaviour in the stock exchange. Investors tend to make prompt responses to negative rather than positive news, which makes them risk averters. Our finding also confirmed that the ARCH/GARCH model is better than the simple OLS method concerning stock market upheaval.

Based on panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative units (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) in China from 2015 to 2019, using fixed effect model and mediation effect model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the interaction among digital economy, industrial structure upgrade and high-quality economic development. The results show that, from the overall effect, the digital economy can significantly promote the high-quality development of the economy, and there are regular regional differences, and the relationship between the promotion intensity and the development level of the digital economy is proportional. From the mediation effect, in the relationship between digital economy and high-quality economic development, the upgrade of industrial structure has played a significant part of the mediation effect, the proportion of mediation effect is 25.17% . In addition, the mediation effect of industrial structure upgrade has obvious regional difference, the western area is the strongest, the eastern area is the second, the central area is the weakest. Based on the above research,the concrete policy suggestions are given to promote the development of digital economy and upgrade the level of industrial structure to promote the high-quality development of economy.

Arthropods are the most abundant and diverse animals on earth. Among them, pancrustaceans are an ancient and morphologically diverse group, comprising a wide range of aquatic and semi-aquatic crustaceans as well as the insects, which emerged from crustacean ancestors to colonise most terrestrial habitats. Within insects, Drosophila stands out as one of the most powerful animal models, making major contributions to our understanding of development, physiology and behaviour. Given these attributes, crustaceans provide a fertile ground for exploring biological diversity through comparative studies. However, beyond insects, few crustaceans are developed sufficiently as experimental models to enable such studies. The marine amphipod Parhyale hawaiensis is currently the best established crustacean system, offering year-round accessibility to developmental stages, transgenic tools, genomic resources, and established genetics and imaging approaches. The Parhyale research community is small but diverse, investigating the evolution of development, regeneration, aspects of sensory biology, chronobiology, bioprocessing and ecotoxicology.

COVID-19 is a contagious respiratory disease that is causing significant global morbidity and mortality. Understanding the impact of a SARS-CoV-2 infection on the host metabolism is still in its infancy but of great importance. Herein, we investigated the metabolic response during viral shedding and post-shedding in an asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 ferret model (n=6) challenged with two SARS-CoV-2 isolates. Virological and metabolic analyses were performed on (minimally invasive) collected oral swabs, rectal swabs, and nasal washes. Fragments of SARS-CoV-2 RNA were only found in the nasal wash samples in four of the six ferrets, and in the samples collected 3 to 9 days post-infection (referred to as viral shedding). Central carbon metabolism metabolites were analyzed during viral shedding and post-shedding periods using a dynamic MRM (dMRM) database and method. Subsequent untargeted metabolomics and lipidomics of the same samples were performed using an LC-QToF-MS methodology, building upon the identified differentiated central carbon metabolism metabolites. Multivariate analysis of the acquired data identified 29 significant metabolites and three lipids that were subjected to pathway enrichment and impact analysis. The presence of viral shedding coincided with the challenge dose administered and significant changes in the citric acid cycle, purine metabolism, and pentose phosphate pathways, amongst others, in the host nasal wash samples. An elevated immune response in the host was also observed between the two isolates studied. These results support other reported metabolomic-based findings found in clinical observational studies and indicate the utility of metabolomics applied to ferrets for further COVID-19 research that advances early diagnosis of asymptomatic and mild clinical COVID-19 infections, in addition to assessing the effectiveness of new or re-purposed drug therapies.

The closed forms of the non-resonant thermonuclear function in the Maxwell-Boltzmann and Tsallis case with depleted tail are obtained in generalized special functions. The results are written in terms of H-function of two variables. The importance of the results in this paper lies in the fact that the reaction rate probability integrals in Maxwell-Boltzmann and Tsallis cases are not obtained by the conventional method of approximation or by means of a single variable transform technique but by means of a two variable transform method. The Behaviour of the depleted non-resonant thermonuclear functions are examined using graphs. The results in the paper are of much interest to astrophysicists and statisticians in their further work in this area.

Paraphrase Generation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in the field of Natural Language Generation. The paraphrasing techniques help to identify or to extract/generate phrases/sentences conveying the similar meaning. The paraphrasing task can be bifurcated into two sub-tasks namely, Paraphrase Identification (PI) and Paraphrase Generation (PG). Most of the existing proposed state-of-the-art systems have the potential to solve only one problem at a time. This paper proposes a light-weight unified model that can simultaneously classify whether given pair of sentences are paraphrases of each other and the model can also generate multiple paraphrases given an input sentence. Paraphrase Generation module aims to generate fluent and semantically similar paraphrases and the Paraphrase Identification systemaims to classify whether sentences pair are paraphrases of each other or not. The proposed approach uses an amalgamation of data sampling or data variety with a granular fine-tuned Text-To-Text Transfer Transformer (T5) model. This paper proposes a unified approach which aims to solve the problems of Paraphrase Identification and generation by using carefully selected data-points and a fine-tuned T5 model. The highlight of this study is that the same light-weight model trained by keeping the objective of Paraphrase Generation can also be used for solving the Paraphrase Identification task. Hence, the proposed system is light-weight in terms of the model’s size along with the data used to train the model which facilitates the quick learning of the model without having to compromise with the results. The proposed system is then evaluated against the popular evaluation metrics like BLEU (BiLingual Evaluation Understudy):, ROUGE (Recall-Oriented Understudy for Gisting Evaluation), METEOR, WER (Word Error Rate), and GLEU (Google-BLEU) for Paraphrase Generation and classification metrics like accuracy, precision, recall and F1-score for Paraphrase Identification system. The proposed model achieves state-of-the-art results on both the tasks of Paraphrase Identification and paraphrase Generation.

The virtual airport hub business model is an innovative solution supported by digital technologies, the implementation of which in continental air transport may lead to a reduction in energy consumption and to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The prerequisites for the implementation of the described solution are: striving to implement the GHG emission reduction strategy laid out in the Paris Agreement (2015) and the European Green Deal (2019) as well as the EU digitalization strategy (2020). The use of predictive analitics to identify the mobility needs of population and operational capabilities of the sector, gives an opportunity to plan travel flows and to create an appropriate set of direct connections among regional airports every day. The results of the analysis of data from 2019 on the amount of energy consumption and GHG emissions indicate that in Europe, it would be possible to achieve reduce GHG emissions by 5% without reducing the number of passengers using air transport. The study was prepared after conducting literature studies, data analysis and using the method of formulating scenarios. The proposed solution has the features of an innovative business model, the implementation of which allows for obtaining more favorable effects using already available resources.

The energy transition requires integration of different energy carriers, including electricity, heat, and transport sectors. Energy modeling methods and tools are essential to provide a clear insight into the energy transition. However, the methodologies often overlook the details of small-scale energy systems. The study states an innovative approach to facilitate sub-national energy systems with 100% renewable penetration and sectoral integration. An optimization model, OSeEM-SN, is developed under the Oemof framework. The model is validated using the case study of Schleswig-Holstein. The study assumes three scenarios representing 25%, 50%, and 100% of the total available biomass potentials. OSeEM-SN reaches feasible solutions without additional offshore wind investment, indicating that they can be reserved for supplying other states’ energy demand. The annual investment cost varies between 1.02 bn – 1.44 bn €/yr for the three scenarios. The electricity generation decreases by 17%, indicating that with high biomass-based combined heat and power plants, the curtailment from other renewable plants can be decreased. Ground source heat pumps dominate the heat mix; however, their installation decreases by 28% as the biomass penetrates fully into the energy mix. The validation confirms OSeEM-SN as a beneficial tool to examine different scenarios for sub-national energy systems.

Convective rainfall can cause dangerous flash floods within less than six hours. Thus, simple approaches are required for issuing quick warnings. The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) approach pre-calculates rainfall levels (thresholds) potentially causing critical water levels for a specific catchment. Afterwards, only rainfall and soil moisture information is required to issue warn-ings. This study applied the principle of FFG to the Wernersbach Catchment (Germany) with excellent data coverage using the BROOK90 water budget model. The rainfall thresholds were determined for durations of 1 to 24 hours, by running BROOK90 in “inverse” mode, identifying rainfall values for each duration that led to exceedance of critical discharge (fixed value). After calibrating the model based on its runoff, we ran it in hourly mode with four precipitation types and various levels of initial soil moisture for the period 1996 – 2010. The rainfall threshold curves showed a very high probability of detection (POD) of 91% for the 40 extracted flash flood events in the study period, however, the false alarm rate (FAR) of 56% and the critical success index (CSI) of 42% should be improved in further studies. The approach proved potential as an early flood indicator for head-catchments with limited available information.

The coronavirus disease pandemic 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged in Wuhan province, China in December 2019 and has spread over all countries. The current study was carried out to predict active, death and cured rate of COVID 19 in Algeria for a future period of 35 days using FB prophet model. Results shoed that the active rate and the death rate decrease for the next days while the cured rate increase. The active, cured and death rates are estimated at 19.7% 78.85% and 2.55% respectively. These results highlight the importance of FB prophet model in COVID-19 prediction which could help national authorities in adopting the best preventive measures.

Turbulent flow is the first and fundamental physical phenomena to evaluate when optimising cost and reducing emissions from an Anode Baking Furnace (ABF). Gas flow patterns, velocity field, pressure drop, shear stress, and turbulent dissipation rate variables are the main operational parameters to be optimised, considering a specific geometry. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) allows simulating physical phenomena using numerical methods with computer resources. In particular, the finite element method is one of the most used methods to solve the flow equations. This method requires a discretisation of the geometry of the ABF, called mesh. Hence, mesh is the main input to the finite element method. A suitable mesh for applying a discretisation method determines whether the problem can be simulated or not. Generating an appropriate mesh remains a challenge to perform accurate simulations. In this work, a comparison between meshes generated using two mesh generation tools is presented. Results of different study cases are included.

Most of the existing influence maximization algorithms are not suitable for large-scale social networks due to their high time complexity or limited influence propagation range. Therefore, a D-RIS influence maximization algorithm is proposed based on the independent cascade model and combined with the reverse reachable set sampling. Under the premise that the influence propagation function satisfies monotonicity and submodularity, the D-RIS algorithm uses automatic debugging method to determine the critical value of the number of reverse reachable sets, which not only obtains a better influence propagation range, and greatly reduce the time complexity. The experimental results on the two real data sets of Slashdot and Epinions show that D-RIS algorithm is close to the CELF algorithm and higher than RIS algorithm, HighDegree algorithm, LIR algorithm and pBmH algorithm in influence propagation range. At the same time, it is significantly better than the CELF algorithm and RIS algorithm in running time, which indicates that D-RIS algorithm is more suitable for large scale social network.

Table grape quality is of importance for consumers and thus for producers. The objective quality determination is usually destructive and very simple with the assessment of only a couple of parameters. This study proposed to evaluate the possibility of hyperspectral imaging to characterize table grapes quality through its sugar, total flavonoid and total anthocyanin contents. Different pre-treatments (WB, SNV, 1st and 2nd derivative) and different methods were tested: PLS with full spectra, then Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) were realized after selecting the optimal wavelengths thanks to the regression coefficients (-coefficients) and the Variable Importance in Projection (VIP) scores from the full spectra. All models were good showing that hyperspectral imaging is a relevant method to assess sugar content and global phenolic content. The best model was dependent on the variable. The best models were from the full spectra and with the 2nd derivative pre-treatment for TSS; from VIPs optimal wavelengths using SNV pre-treatment for Total Flavonoid and total Anthocyanin content. Thus, relevant models were proposed using the full spectra, as well as specific windows and wavelengths in order to reduce the data sets and limit the data storage to enable an industrial use.

The production of butanol, acetone and ethanol by Clostridium acetobutylicum is a biphasic fer-mentation process. In the first phase the carbohydrate substrate is metabolized to acetic and bu-tyric acid, in the following second phase the product spectrum is shifted towards the economi-cally interesting solvents. Here we present a cascade of six continuous stirred tank reactors (CCSTR), which allows performing the time dependent metabolic phases of an ace-tone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) batch fermentation in a spatial domain. Experimental data of steady states under four operating conditions - with variations of the pH in the first bioreactor between 4.3 and 5.6 as well as the total dilution rate between 0.042 1/h and 0.092 1/h - were used to optimize and validate a corresponding mathematical model. Beyond a residence time distribution representation and substrate, biomass and product kinetics this model also includes the differen-tiation of cells between the metabolic states. Model simulations predict a final butanol product concentration of 8.2 g/L and a butanol productivity of 0.75 g/(L h) in the CCSTR operated at a pH in bioreactor 1 of 4.3 and D = 0.092 1/h, while 31 % of the cells are differentiated to the solventogenic state. Aiming at an enrichment of solvent-producing cells, a feedback loop was introduced into the cascade - sending cells from a later state of the process (bioreactor 4) back to an early stage of the process (bioreactor 2). In agreement with the experimental observations, the model accurately predicted an increase of butanol formation rate in bioreactor stages 2 and 3, resulting in an overall butanol productivity of 0.76 g/(L h) for the feedback loop cascade. The here presented CCSTR and the validated model will serve to investigate further ABE fermentation strategies for a controlled metabolic switch.

This paper presents multidisciplinary and innovative research concerning fighting against coronavirus through wastewater collection and treatment. Studies suggest that coronavirus exists in the wastewaters. Untreated wastewater is proved to spread the virus. Coronavirus is attacking people globally and shrinking the economy. This paper highlights the idea that the coronavirus shall be defeated with the help of wastewater collection and treatment as well. The question addressed by this paper is will communities defeat the coronavirus without well-collected and treated wastewaters? This research aims to display the role of wastewaters in the spread of coronavirus in cities and to require their collection. The methods to achieve the goals are theoretical surveys, case study strategy, mathematical modeling, statistical procedures, forecasting of future, and dialectical discussions. The findings of this research demonstrate the need for carefully collected and treated wastewaters to overcome the coronavirus. This paper gives suitable techniques to collect and treat wastewater such as wastewater stabilization ponds, bacterial reactors, and anaerobic ponds. The innovative idea of this paper, its suggested indicators to select a certain wastewater treatment technique in every city, and its outcome will assist the global community to fight the coronavirus more effectively.

Consumer products contain the chemical substances that threaten human health. The modeling methods and experimental methods have been used to estimate the inhalation exposure concentration by the consumer products. The model and measurement methods have the spatial property problem and time/cost consuming problem, respectively. For solving the problems due to the conventional methodology, this study performed the feasibility of applying CFD for evaluation of inhalation exposure by comparing the experiment results and the zero-dimensional results with CFD results. To calculate the aerosol concentration, the CFD was performed by combined the 3D Reynolds averaged Navier Stoke’s equation and discrete phased model using ANSYS FLUENT. As a result of comparing the three methodologies performed under the same simulation/experimental conditions, we found the zero-dimensional spray model shows approximately 5 times underestimated inhalation exposure concentration when compared with the CFD results and measurement results in near field. Also, the results of the measured concentration of aerosols at five locations and the CFD results at the same location were compared to show the possibility of evaluating inhalation exposure at various locations using CFD instead of experimental method. The CFD results according to measurement positions can predict rationally the measurement results with low error. In conclusion, in the field of exposure science, a guideline for exposure evaluation using CFD was found that complements the shortcomings of the conventional methodology, the zero-dimensional spray model and measurement method.

With data for SARS-CoV-2 and with many countries entering the second wave of contagion required the improvement of the forecasting model, structuring its model to forecast the peak of the first and second contagion wave in Brazil. The Model Estimation for SARS-CoV-2 Peak Contagion (MESPC) was structured, capable of estimating the peak of contagion for SARS-CoV-2 in the first and second waves, as the main objective of this work. Using the MESPC model, it was possible to estimate, with a certain reliability degree, the peak of contagion for the first and second waves in Brazil, with one day difference from the real to the forecast. It is possible to use MESPC to forecast the peak of contagion for several regions, provided that the necessary structure and calibration are respected.

{\bf Abstract.} \\ {\bf Background:} Bangladesh hosts more than 800,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar. The low health immunity, lifestyle, access to good healthcare services, social-security cause this population to be at risk of far more direct effects of COVID-19 than the host population. Therefore, evidence-based forecasting of the COVID-19 burden is vital in this regard. In this study, we aimed to forecast the COVID-19 burden among the Rohingya refugees of Bangladesh to keep up with the disease outbreak's pace, health needs, and disaster preparedness. \noindent{\bf Methodology and Findings:} To estimate the possible consequences of COVID-19 in the Rohingya camps of Bangladesh, we used a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious Recovered (SEIR) transmission model. All the values of different parameters used in this model were from the Bangladesh Government’s database and the relevant emerging literature. We addressed two different scenarios, i.e., the best-fitting model and good fitting model with unique consequences of COVID-19. Our best fitting model suggests that there will be good control over the transmission of the COVID-19 disease. At the end of December 2020, there will be only 169 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Rohingya refugee camps. The average basic reproduction number ($ \mathcal{R}_{0} $) has been estimated to be 0.7563. \noindent{\bf Conclusion:} Our analysis suggests that, due to the extensive precautions from the Bangladesh government as well as other humanitarian organizations, the coronavirus disease will be under control if the maintenance continues like this. Although detailed and pragmatic preparedness should be adopted for the worst scenario.

Fatigue loading is critical to fibre reinforced polymer composites due to their anisotropic and heterogenous nature. This study investigated the tensile fatigue behaviour of polyester and vinyl ester based GFRP laminates to understand the critical aspects of failure mode and fatigue life under cyclic loading. GFRP laminates with two different resin systems (polyester and vinyl ester), two different stress ratios (0.1 and 0.5) and two different environmental conditions (air and water) were investigated at an applied stress of 80%, 60% and 40% of the ultimate capacity. Based on the investigated parameters (i.e., resin types, stress ratio, environmental conditioning and maximum applied stress), a fatigue model was proposed. Results show that the resin system plays a great role in fatigue failure mode while the stress ratio and environmental condition significantly affect the tensile fatigue life of GFRP laminates. The types of resin used in GFRP laminates and environmental conditions as input parameter in the proposed fatigue model is a unique contribution.

The crucial phenomenological and experimental predictions for new physics are outlined, where the number of problems of the Standard Model (neutrino masses and oscillations, dark matter, baryon asymmetry of the Universe, leptonic CP-violation) could find their solutions. The analogies between the cosmological neutrino mass scale from the early universe data and laboratory probes are discussed and the search for new physics and phenomena.

This paper presents results from numerical and experimental investigation on Charpy tests in order to point out failure mechanisms and to evaluate new polymeric blends PP+PA6+EPDM. Charpy tests were done for initial velocity of the impactor of 0.96 m/s and its mass of 3.219 kg and these data were also introduced in the finite element model. The proposed model take into account the system of four balls, including support and the ring of fixing the three balls and it has a finer discretization of the impact area to highlight the mechanisms of failure and their development in time. The constitutive models for four materials (polypropylene with 1% Kritilen, two blends PP+PA6+EPDM and a blend PA6+EPDM) were derived from tensile tests. Running simulations for each constitutive model of material makes possible to differentiate the destruction mechanisms according to the material introduced in the simulation, including the initiation and the development of the crack(s), based on equivalent plastic strain at break (EPS) for each material. The validation of the model and the simulation results was done qualitatively, analysing the shape of broken surfaces and comparing them to SEM images and quantitatively by comparing the impact duration, energy absorbed by the sample, the value of maximum force during impact. The duration of the destruction of the specimen is longer than the actual one, explainable by the fact that the material model does not take into account the influence of the material deformation speed in Charpy test, the model being designed with the help of tests done at 0.016 m/s (1000 mm/min) (maximum strain rate for the tensile tests). Experimental results are encouraging for recommending the blends 20% PP+42% PA6+28% EPDM and 60% PA6+ 40%EPDM as materials for impact protection at low velocity (1m/s). Simulation results are closer to the experimental ones for the more brittle tested materials (with less content of PA6 and EPDM) and more distanced for the more ductile materials (with higher content of PA6 and EPDM).

This study uses Landsat 8 and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) to show the dominant orientations of digital lineaments and morphotectonic features between measured trends and the tectonic evolution of the Upper Guajira, Colombia, in the northernmost region of the South American plate. Data from Landsat-8 and hillshaded images of three Digital Elevation Model (DEM) images with different resolutions (SRTM: 90m, ASTER-GDEM: 30m and Alos-Palsar: 12.5m), were used for the extraction and mapping of morpholineaments, drainage network and morphological features. Lineaments were analyzed by means of north azimuth frequency, length, density distributions, lithological distributions and geochronological periods. Tectonic control was supported by using the digitized geological map created by the Colombian Geological Service (SGC). Lineaments and faults were analyzed through the interpretation of a Riedel shear model as a result of the transtensional/transpressional tectonic arrangement of the Caribbean and South American plates. The directional trends of lineaments and faults indicate two dominant directions: NE-SW and E-W. The azimuth distribution analysis of measured structures and drainage channels show similar trends, except for some differences in the predominant directions of some drainage channels. The similarity in the orientation of lineaments, faults and drainage system highlights the degree of control exerted by underlying structures on the surface geomorphological features. Drainage channel classification illustrates the morphological and neo-tectonic complexity of the region. The extracted lineaments were divided into five geochronological groups based on the main ages of host rock formations according to the Colombian Geological Service (SGC) geological map. From the Cretaceous onward, the lineament azimuth frequency rotates from a NE-SW trend to a prominent E-W direction, which resembles the translation that Caribbean plate has been undergoing since the Cretaceous. Our results confirm that Remote Sensing techniques are reliable and useful to study the morphotectonic of an area and can be applied to zones of difficult access.

The paper proposes a new principle of finding and removing elements of mathematical model, redundant in terms of parametric identification of the model. It allows reducing computational and time complexity of the applications built on the model. Especially this is important for AI based systems, systems based on IoT solutions, distributed systems etc. Besides, the complexity reduction allows increasing an accuracy of mathematical models implemented. Despite the model order reduction methods are well known, they are extremely depended however on the problem area. Thus, proposed reduction principles can be used in different areas, what is demonstrated in this paper. The proposed method for the reduction of mathematical models of dynamic systems allows also the assessment of the requirements for the parameters of the simulator elements to ensure the specified accuracy of dynamic similarity. Efficiency of the principle is shown on the ordinary differential equations and on the neural network model. The given examples demonstrate efficient normalizing properties of the reduction principle for the mathematical models in the form of neural networks.

Adaptive bitrate (ABR) algorithms optimize the quality of streaming experiences for users in client-side video players especially in unreliable or slow mobile networks. Several rule-based heuristic algorithms can achieve stable performance, but they sometimes fail to adapt properly to changing network conditions. Fluctuating bandwidth may cause algorithms to default to behavior that creates a negative experience for the user. ABR algorithms can be generated with reinforcement learning, a decision-making paradigm in which an agent learns to make optimal choices through interactions with an environment. Training reinforcement learning algorithms for bitrate streaming requires building a simulator for an agent to experience interactions quickly; training an agent in the real environment is infeasible due to the long step times in real environments. This project explores using supervised learning to construct a world-model, or a learned simulator, from recorded interactions. A reinforcement learning agent trained inside of the learned model, rather than a simulator, can outperform rule-based heuristics. Furthermore, agents trained inside the learned world-model can outperform model-free agents in low sample regimes. This work highlights the potential for world-models to quickly learn simulators, and to be used to generate optimal policies.

This paper aims to implement histogram pyramids with marching cubes method for 3D medical volumetric rendering. The histogram pyramids are used for feature extraction by segmenting the image into the hierarchical order like the pyramid shape. The histogram pyramids can decrease the number of sparse matrixes that will occur during voxel manipulation. The important feature of the histogram pyramids is the direction of segments in the image. This feature will be then used for connecting pixels (2D) to form up voxel (3D) during marching cubes implementation. The proposed method is fast and easy to implement and it also produces a smooth result (compared to the traditional marching cubes technique). The experimental results show that time consuming for generating 3D model can be reduced by 15.59% in average. The paper also shows the comparison between the surface rendering using the traditional marching cubes and the marching cubes with histogram pyramids. Therefore, for the volumetric rendering such as 3D medical models and terrains where a large number of lookups in 3D grids are performed, this method is a particularly good choice for generating the smooth surface of 3D object.

The rapid growth of the smart Internet of Things (IoT) and massive propagation of wireless technologies revealed the recent opportunities for development in various domains of real life such as smart cities and E-Health applications. A slight defense against different forms of attacks is offered for the current secure and lightweight Routing Protocol for Low Power and Lossy Networks (RPL) of IoT resource-constrained devices. Data packets are highly likely to be exposed while transmitting them during data packets routing. The RPL rank and version number attacks, which are two forms of RPL attacks, can have critical consequences for RPL networks. The studies conducted on these attacks have several security defects and performance shortcomings. The research proposes a Secure RPL Routing Protocol (SRPL-RP) for rank and version number attacks. It mainly detects, mitigates and isolates attacks in the RPL networks. The detection is based on a comparison of ranks strategy. The mitigation uses threshold and attacks status tables, and the isolation adds them to a blacklist table and alerts relevant nodes to skip them. SRPL-RP supports diverse types of network topologies and is comprehensively analyzed with multiple studies such as Standard RPL with Attacks, SBIDS and RPL+ Shield. The analysis results showed that the SRPL-RP achieves great improvements with Packet Delivery Ratio (PDR) of 98.48%, control message value of 991 packets/second, and average energy consumption of 1231.75 joules. It provides a better accuracy rate with 98.17% under the attacks.

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein sequences of over 19 countries from biological databases submitted around the globe was carried out with help of bioinformatics tools and structure prediction databases. Initial data analysis showed entry of virus into different geographic regions started in the month of January 2020. Meanwhile, alignment of spike protein sequences of SARS-CoV-2 isolates from China and other countries revealed a critical mutation of D614G. Surprisingly, mutation D614G was not seen in early samples submitted in the month of January but gradually it started appearing globally from the month of March 2020. However, the mutations of amino acids in the spike protein other than D614G exhibiting similar pI and altered polarity were found to be specific to geographical regions. Besides, prediction of homology model for interaction of spike protein showed predominant role of chain C of trimeric spike protein in adhering receptor binding domain (RBD) of human ACE2 receptor. Furthermore, the prediction of glycosylation points has revealed that there are about 20 N-glycosylation potential sites on spike protein. We believe that the information present here would not only help in thorough understanding of infectivity but also enhance the knowledge of the scientific community in developing prophylactics and/or therapeutics for SARS-CoV19-2 virus.

Several epidemiological models are being used around the world to project the number of infected individuals and the mortality rates of the COVID-19 outbreak. Advancing accurate prediction models is of utmost importance to take proper actions. Due to a high level of uncertainty or even lack of essential data, the standard epidemiological models have been challenged regarding the delivery of higher accuracy for long-term prediction. As an alternative to the susceptible-infected-resistant (SIR)-based models, this study proposes a hybrid machine learning approach to predict the COVID-19 and we exemplify its potential using data from Hungary. The hybrid machine learning methods of adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multi-layered perceptron-imperialist competitive algorithm (MLP-ICA) are used to predict time series of infected individuals and mortality rate. The models predict that by late May, the outbreak and the total morality will drop substantially. The validation is performed for nine days with promising results, which confirms the model accuracy. It is expected that the model maintains its accuracy as long as no significant interruption occurs. Based on the results reported here, and due to the complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research.

Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models need to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak.

This study presents a new kinetic scheme for the mass yield prediction of waste lignocellulosic biomasses treated by Hydrothermal Carbonization (HTC). The proposed reactions are based on the decomposition, solubilization, and polymerization of each main fraction of the biomass: cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin. The ash content was assumed to be inert. The kinetic parameters have been obtained by non-linear adjustment using a data set with 220 experimental runs collected from the literature. The results indicate that the pre-exponential factors range was from 7.33 x10¹ to 1.412x10⁵ min^-1, and activation energies were between 33.75 y 225.3 kJ/mol. A good fit is achieved between the observed and predicted data with an R² of 0.81 and an RMSE of 7.7 %. The proposed scheme was validated with the experimental data obtained by the HTC of sawdust (Pinus radiata) and rapeseed (Brassica napus). The experiments were carried out at temperatures of 190, 220, and 250 ºC and reaction times of 0, 30, 60, 90, and 120 min. The predicted values showed an average error of 2.3 and 3.5 %, respectively. Therefore, the kinetic scheme is a useful tool in the conversion analysis of waste biomass treated by HTC.

The outdoor field test of the 4-terminal on Si tandem photovoltaic module (specifically, InGaP/GaAs on Si) was investigated and performance model, considering spectrum change affected by fluctuation of atmospheric parameters, was developed and validated. The 4-terminal on Si tandem photovoltaic module had about 40 % advantage in seasonal performance loss compared with standard InGaP/GaAs/InGaAs 2-terminal tandem photovoltaic module. This advantage is expanded in (subarctic zone) < (temperate zone) < (subtropical zone). The developed and validated model used all-climate spectrum model and considered fluctuation of atmospheric parameters, and can be applied every type of on-Si tandem solar cells.

Dynamic analyses and seismic assessments of multi-storey buildings at urban level require large-scale simulations and computational procedures based on simplified but accurate numerical models. At this aim the present paper propos-es an equivalent non-uniform beam-like model, suitable for the dynamic analysis of buildings with asymmetric plan and non-uniform vertical distribution of mass and stiffness. The equations of motion of this beam-like model, which pre-sents only shear and torsional deformability, are derived through the application of Hamilton’s principle. The linear dy-namic behaviour is evaluated by discretizing the continuous non-uniform model according to a Rayleigh-Ritz approach based on a suitable number of modal shapes of the uniform shear-torsional beam. In spite of its simplicity, the model is able to reproduce the dynamic behaviour of low- and mid-rise buildings with a significant reduction of the computa-tional burden with respect to that required by more general models. The efficacy of the proposed approach has been tested, by means of comparisons with linear FEM simulations, on three multi-storey buildings characterized by different irregularities. The satisfactory agreement, in terms of natural frequencies, modes of vibration and seismic response, proves the capability of the proposed approach to reproduce the dynamic response of complex spatial multi storey frames.

In this paper, we compare the performance between systems of ordinary and (Caputo) fractional differential equations depicting the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) models of diseases. In order to understand the origins of both approaches as mean-field approximations of integer and fractional stochastic processes, we introduce the fractional differential equations as approximations of some type of fractional nonlinear birth--death processes. Then, we examine validity of the two approaches against empirical courses of epidemics; we fit both of them to case counts of three measles epidemics that occurred during the pre-vaccination era in three different locations. While FDEs appear more flexible in fitting empirical data, our ODEs offered better fits to two out of three data sets. Important differences in transient dynamics between these modeling approaches are discussed.

A galvalume corrugated sheet was utilized as formwork for a reinforced concrete beam in flexure. A numerical model was validated to the experimentally obtained data, and further adopted to simulate the behavior of this composite structure under elevated temperatures. The properties and constitutive stress-strain data of the basic materials were obtained from experiments, and superimposed into the finite element model. The study concluded that the load carrying capacity of the member decreased as a direct function on temperature increase, and the cracking moment was very sensitive to the temperature fluctuation. The elevated temperatures also altered the failure mode.

Dams design and their operation cause strong environmental alteration and therefore a long-term debate is ongoing for the scale of these projects. At the same time, the concept of Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA) is a crucial element of modified ecosystems featuring large infrastructure such as dams and reservoirs for mitigating potential environmental degradation while they operate. Nowadays, integrated scientific frameworks are required to quantify the risks caused by large infrastructure. Through the use of stochastic analysis, it is possible to quantify these uncertainties, and present a solution that incorporates long-term persistence and environmental sustainability into a balanced reservoir simulation model. In this work, an attempt is made to determine a benchmark reservoir size incorporating hydrological and ecological criteria though stochastic analysis. The primary goal is to ensure the best possible conditions for the ecosystem, and then secondarily to allow a steady supply of water for other uses. Using a synthetic timeseries based on historical inputs, it is possible to determine and preserve essential statistical characteristics of a river’s streamflow, and use these to detect the optimal reservoir capacity that maximizes environmental and local water demand reliability.

Alkali-containing submicron particles were measured continuously during three months, including late winter and spring seasons in Gothenburg, Sweden. The overall aims were to characterize the ambient concentrations of combustion-related aerosol particles and to address the importance of local emissions and long-range transport for the atmospheric concentrations in the urban background environment. K and Na concentrations in the PM1 size range were measured by an alkali aerosol mass spectrometer (Alkali-AMS) and a cluster analysis was conducted. Local meteorological conditions and some other data sets were obtained, and back trajectory analyses and chemical transport model (CTM) simulations were included for the evaluation. The Alkali-AMS cluster analysis indicated three major clusters: 1) biomass burning origin, 2) mixture of other combustion sources, and 3) marine origin. Low temperatures and low wind speed conditions correlated with high concentrations of K-containing particles, mainly due to regional emissions from residential biomass combustion; transport of air masses from continental Europe also contribute to cluster 1. The CTM results indicate that open biomass burning in the eastern parts of Europe may have contributed substantially to high PM2.5 concentrations (and to cluster 1) during an episode in late March. According to the CTM results the mixed cluster (2) is likely to include particles emitted from different source types and no single geographical source region seems to dominate for this cluster. The back trajectory analysis and meteorological conditions indicated that the marine origin cluster was correlated with westerly winds and high wind speed; this cluster had high concentrations of Na-containing particles, as expected for sea salt particles.

Purpose: Localization and mapping with LiDAR data is a fundamental building block for autonomous vehicles. Though LiDAR point clouds can often encode the scene depth more accurate and steadier compared with visual information, laser-based Simultaneous Localization And Mapping (SLAM) remains challengeable as the data is usually sparse, density variable and less discriminative. The purpose of this paper is to propose an accurate and reliable laser-based SLAM solution. Design/methodology/approach: The method starts with constructing voxel grids based on the 3D input point cloud. These voxels are then classified into three types to indicate different physical objects according to the spatial distribution of the points contained in each voxel. A global environment model with Partition of Unity (POU) implicit surface is maintained along the process and located voxels are merged into it from stage to stage, through scan-to-model matching implemented by Levenberg-Marquardt method. Findings: We find a laser-based SLAM method. The method uses POU implicit surface representation to build the model and is evaluated on the KITTI odometry benchmark without loop closure. Experimental results indicate that the method achieves accuracy comparable to the state-of-the-art methods. Originality/value: We propose a novel, low-drift SLAM method, which falls into a scan-to-model matching paradigm, operates on point clouds obtained from Velodyne HDL64. The method is of value to researchers developing SLAM systems for autonomous vehicles.

Iron deficiency anemia (IDA) is highly prevalent in the Cote d’Ivoire, and has severe health and economic consequences. In this paper, we apply a health economic model to quantify the burden of IDA, and the contribution of nation-wide mandatory iron fortification of wheat flour and voluntary iron fortification of condiments to the reduction of this burden. The analysis for the population from six months to 64 years builds on published reviews and publicly available datasets, and is stratified by age-groups and socio-economic strata. Without the impact of these fortification strategies, the annual burden of IDA is estimated at 242,100 disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and 978.1 million USD. Wheat flour and condiment fortification contributed to a reduction of the IDA burden by approximately 5% each. In places with high prevalence of malaria and environmental factors, such as the Côte D’Ivoire, policy makers should combine nutritional intervention with infectious disease prevention and environmental factors. The findings of this study provide additional input for policy makers about the magnitude of the impact and can support the conception of future fortification strategies.

Instead of simplified steady-state models, with modern computers, one can solve the complete aero-thermodynamics happening in gas turbine engines. In the present article, we describe a mathematical model and numerical procedure to represent the transient response of a PT6A gas turbine engine operating at off-design conditions. The aero-thermal model consists of a set of algebraic and ordinary differential equations that arise from the application of the mass, linear momentum, angular momentum, and energy balances in each engine's component. The solution code has been developed in Matlab-Simulink using a block-oriented approach. Transient simulations of the PT6A engine start-up have been carried out by changing the original Jet-A1 fuel with biodiesel blends. Time plots of the main thermodynamic variables are shown, especially those regarding the structural integrity of the burner. Numerical results have been validated against reported experimental measurements and GasTurb simulations. The computer model has been capable to predict acceptable fuel blends, such that the real PT6A engine can be substituted to avoid the risk of damaging it.

The combination of new-generation information technology and manufacturing technology has resulted in major and profound impact on future development paradigm of manufacturing. It is challenging for existing methods to conduct a multidimensional trend exploration related to machine tool domain, which is the basis of virtually everything in manufacturing. In this paper, we proposed an integrating approach framework combined topic models, bibliometric, trend analysis and patent analysis to mine insightful information about future development from multi-source data related to machine tool, such as papers, grants, patents and news. Specifically, papers and grants provided two different perspectives to explore the current focuses and future trends in machine tool research. Furthermore, the future technology development of machine tool was investigated through patents analysis. Finally, news related to machine tool industry in recent years was analyzed to analyze future machine tool business mode. The integration of the above various analytical methods and the multi-dimensional mining of literatures enabled the analysis of the future development of machine tool domain systematically from multi-perspectives which include research, technology development and industry. The conclusions obtained in this paper is beneficial to different communities of machine tool in terms of determining the research directions for researchers, identifying industry opportunities for corporations and developing reasonable industry policy for policy makers.

For the task planning problem of the command and control architecture, the existing algorithms have problems such as low efficiency and poor re-planning quality under abnormal conditions. Based on the requirements of the current accusation architecture, this paper constructs a distributed command and control architecture model based on multi-agents, which makes use of the superiority of multi-agents in dealing with complex tasks. The concept of MultiAgents-HTN is proposed under the framework. The original hierarchical task network planning algorithm is optimized, the multi-agent collaboration framework is redefined, and the coordination mechanism of local conflict is designed. Taking the classical resource scheduling problem as the experimental background, the comparison between the proposed algorithm and the classical HTN algorithm is carried out. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm has higher quality and higher efficiency than the existing algorithm, and the space anomaly is heavy during processing. The planning is more efficient, and the time is more complicated and superior in dealing with the same problem, with good convergence and adaptability. The conclusion proves that the distributed command and control architecture proposed in this paper has high practicability in related fields and can solve the problem of distributed command and control architecture in multi-agent environment.

We write the mutual information between an input speech utterance and its reconstruction by a Code-Excited Linear Prediction (CELP) codec in terms of the mutual information between the input speech and the contributions due to the short term predictor, the adaptive codebook, and the fixed codebook. We then show that a recently introduced quantity, the log ratio of entropy powers, can be used to estimate these mutual informations in terms of bits/sample. A key result is that for many common distributions and for Gaussian autoregressive processes, the entropy powers in the ratio can be replaced by the corresponding minimum mean squared errors. We provide examples of estimating CELP codec performance using the new results and compare to the performance of the AMR codec and other CELP codecs. Similar to rate distortion theory, this method only needs the input source model and the appropriate distortion measure.

Cost estimating based on building cost index plays an important role in project planning and management by providing accurate cost information. Recently, tremendous advances in cost estimating has been made but serious inaccuracies in it are still too frequently witnessed. This study aims to improve estimating accuracy for residential building costs in New Zealand. In this study, the New Zealand house prices index is involved in the transfer function models to produce forecasts of building costs for one-storey house, two-storey house, and town house in New Zealand. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed models, this study compares the estimate results of the transfer function models with the univariate ARIMA models. The results indicate that the proposed transfer function models can achieve better outcomes than ARIMA models by considering the causality between building costs and New Zealand house prices. During the modelling process, the better cost estimation approach can be identified, and the movements of building costs are shown.

Based on the Graph Model of Conflict Resolution (GMCR), a two-stage decision framework is developed to reveal the essence of brownfield incidents and facilitate the resolution of brownfield conflicts caused by the incidents. More particularly, the forward GMCR is utilized in Stage I, the negotiation stage, to simulate the evolution of a brownfield conflict (BC) and predict its potential resolution via stability analysis. If no acceptable equilibrium can be obtained, the BC progresses into Stage II, the third-party-intervention stage, where the inverse GMCR is used to assist a third party in intervening the conflict to achieve a desirable outcome. To illustrate the practicality of this framework, a recent BC occurred in Changzhou, China, is taken as a case study. Invaluable insights are provided through the computation and investigation of the corresponding preference relationships.

Biophoton emission has been experimented for decades. The photo-genic origin of biophoton has also been attributed to the oxidative stress or free radical production. However, there are considerable gaps in quantitative understanding of biophoton emission. In this work, I propose an analytical hypothesis for interpreting a few patterns of steady-state biophoton emission of human, including the dependency on age, the diurnal variation, and the geometric asymmetry associated with serious asymmetrical pathological conditions. The hypothesis is based on an alternative form of energy state, termed vivo-nergy, which is associated with only metabolically active organisms that are also under neuronal control. The hypothesis projects a decrease of the vivo-nergy in human during growth beyond puberty. The hypothesis also proposes a modification of the vivo-nergy by the phases of systematic or homeostatic physiology. The hypothesis further postulates that the deviation of the physiology-modified vivo-nergy from the pre-puberty level is deteriorated by acquired organ-specific pathological conditions. A temporal differential change of vivo-nergy is hypothesized to proportionally modulate oxidative stress that functions as the physical source of biophoton emission. The resulted steady-state diffusion of the photon emitted from a photo-genic source in a human geometry simplified as a homogeneous spherical domain is modeled by photon diffusion principles incorporating an extrapolated zero-boundary condition. The age and systematic physiology combined determines the intensity of the centered physiological steady-state photo-genic source. An acquired pathology sets both the intensity and the off-center position of the pathological steady-state photo-genic source. When the age-commemorated, physiology-commanded, and pathology-controlled modifications of the steady-state photo-genetic sources are implemented in the photon diffusion model, the photon fluence rate at the surface of the human-representing spherical domain reveals the patterns on age, the temporal variation corresponding to systematic physiology, and the geometric asymmetry associated with significant asymmetric pathological condition as reported for spontaneous biophoton emission. The hypothesis, as it provides conveniences for quantitative estimation of biophoton emission patterns, will be extended in future works towards interpreting the temporal characteristics of biophoton emission under stimulation.

Hydrological models have been widely used for many purposes in water sector projects, including streamflow prediction and flood risk assessment. Among the input data used in such hydrological models, the spatial-temporal variability of rainfall datasets has a significant role on the final discharge estimation. Therefore, accurate measurements of rainfall are vital. On the other hand, ground-based measurement networks, mainly in developing countries, are either nonexistent or too sparse to capture rainfall accurately. In addition to in-situ rainfall datasets, satellite-derived rainfall products are nowadays available globally with high spatial and temporal resolution. An innovative approach called SM2RAIN that estimates rainfall from soil moisture data has been applied successfully to various regions. In this study, firstly soil moisture content derived from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth observing system (AMSR-E) is used as input into the SM2RAIN algorithm to estimate daily rainfall, SM2R-AMSRE, at different sites in the Karkheh river basin (KRB), southwest Iran. Secondly, the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model is applied to simulate runoff using both ground-based observed rainfall and SM2R-AMSRE rainfall as input. The results reveal that the SM2R-AMSRE rainfall data are, in most cases, in good agreement with ground-based rainfall, with correlations R ranging between 0.58 and 0.88, though there is some underestimation of the observed rainfall, due to soil moisture saturation, not accounted for in the SM2RAIN equation. The subsequent SM2R-AMSRE- SWAT- simulated monthly runoff reproduces well the observations at the 6 gauging stations (with coefficient of determination, R² > 0.72), though with slightly worse performances in terms of bias (Bias) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) and, again, some systematic flow underestimation than the SWAT model with ground-based rainfall input. Furthermore, rainfall estimations of two satellite products of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), 3B42 and 3B42RT, are used in the calibrated SWAT- model. The monthly runoff obtained with 3B42- rainfall have 0.39< R2 < 0.70 and are slightly better than those obtained with 3B42RT- rainfall, but not as good as the SM2R-AMSRE- SWAT- simulated runoff above. Therefore, in spite of the afore-mentioned limitations, using SM2R-AMSRE rainfall data in a hydrological model like SWAT, appears to be a viable approach in basins with limited ground-based rainfall data.

Due to the increasing importance of mangroves in climate change mitigation projects, more accurate and cost-effective aboveground biomass (AGB) monitoring methods are required. However, field measurement of AGB may be a challenge because of its remote location and the difficulty to walk in these areas. This study is based on the Livelihoods Fund’ Oceanium project of 10,000 hectare mangrove plantations monitoring. In a first step, the possibility of replacing traditional field measurements of sample plots in a young mangrove plantation by a semiautomatic processing of UAV-based photogrammetric point clouds was assessed. In a second step, Sentinel-1 radar and Sentinel-2 optical imagery were used as auxiliary information to estimate AGB and its variance for the entire study area under a model-assisted framework. AGB was measured using UAV imagery in a total of 95 sample plots. UAV plot data was used in combination with non-parametric Support Vector Regression (SVR) models for the estimation of the study area AGB using model-assisted estimators. Purely UAV-based AGB estimates and their associated standard error (SE) were compared with model-assisted estimates using (1) Sentinel-1, (2) Sentinel-2 and (3) a combination of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data as auxiliary information. The validation of the UAV-based individual tree height and crown diameter measurements showed a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.21 m and 0.32 m respectively. Relative efficiency of the three model-assisted scenarios ranged between 1.61 and 2.15. Although all SVR models improved the efficiency of the monitoring over UAV-based estimates, the best results were achieved when a combination of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data was used. Results indicated that the methodology used in this research can provide accurate and cost-effective estimates of AGB in mangrove young plantations.

In this paper, we propose a novel approach of video skimming by exploiting the fusion of video temporal information and keyword information representation extracted from multi-model video information including audio, text and visual indices. In addition, we introduce the brand-safe filtering and sentiment analysis in order to only reserve the user-friendly content in the video skim. In the experiment by using the videos from YouTube-8M dataset, we have proved that the semantic conservation in the video skim from the proposed approach highly outperforms the approaches by only partial information of the video in conserving the semantic content of the video.

In this paper the authors present a method which facilitates computationally efficient parameter estimation of dynamical systems from a continuously growing set of measurement data. It is shown that the proposed method, which utilises Sequential Monte Carlo samplers, is guaranteed to be fully parallelisable (in contrast to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods) and can be applied to a wide variety of scenarios within structural dynamics. Its ability to allow convergence of one's parameter estimates, as more data is analysed, sets it apart from other sequential methods (such as the particle filter).

We propose a new technique to prepare statistically-robust benchmarking data for evaluating chemical transport model meteorology and air quality parameters within the urban boundary layer. The approach employs atmospheric class-typing, using nocturnal radon measurements to assign atmospheric mixing classes, and can be applied temporally (across the diurnal cycle), or spatially (to create angular distributions of pollutants as a top-down constraint on emissions inventories). In this study only a short (<1-month) campaign is used, but grouping of the relative mixing classes based on nocturnal mean radon concentrations can be adjusted according to dataset length (i.e., number of days per category), or desired range of within-class variability. Calculating hourly distributions of observed and simulated values across diurnal composites of each class-type helps to: (i) bridge the gap between scales of simulation and observation, (ii) represent the variability associated with spatial and temporal heterogeneity of sources and meteorology without being confused by it, and (iii) provide an objective way to group results over whole diurnal cycles that separates ‘natural complicating factors’ (synoptic non-stationarity, rainfall, mesoscale motions, extreme stability, etc.) from problems related to parameterizations, or between-model differences. We demonstrate the utility of this technique using output from a suite of seven contemporary regional forecast and chemical transport models. Meteorological model skill varied across the diurnal cycle for all models, with an additional dependence on the atmospheric mixing class that varied between models. From an air quality perspective, model skill regarding the duration and magnitude of morning and evening “rush hour” pollution events varied strongly as a function of mixing class. Model skill was typically the lowest when public exposure would have been the highest, which has important implications for assessing potential health risks in new and rapidly evolving urban regions, and also for prioritizing the areas of model improvement for future applications.

This paper based on systems - theoretic approach to the definition of a country's GDP as not directly observable characteristic of system state. Leontief dynamic model is generalized to take into account the stimulating effect of consumption on GDP growth. In consumption, apart from final consumption, terms are considered: balance of foreign trade, fictitious investments and hidden costs. The Kalman filter uses Rosstat's gross output (for system output) and final consumption (for system control) data from 1995 to 2015. It is concluded that if in the years 2014, 2015 it was possible to increase consumption by 5% by, say, price cuts or some increase in money supply, then GDP would be greater by about 2.5%. GDP real values in recent years are most likely greater than official values. Fictitious investments and hidden costs are found in the amount of up to third the value of final consumption. The accuracy of one-year forecasts of true GDP by the methodology of this article is approximately 1.5%.

Bowlby’s (1969/1982) attachment theory has been employed as a broad and integrative framework to explore human wellness across a range of disciplines. Attachment theory has even been labelled one of the last surviving “grand theories” not to have been completely dismissed, replaced, or extensively reworked (e.g., Carr, 2012; Mercer, 2011). However, despite the ubiquitous nature of some of the theory’s fundamental tenets, there are always possibilities for new conceptual development, extension, and revision. In this paper, we critically explore the idea of “context-specific” attachment within parent-child relationships. We briefly outline critical assumptions and key areas of attachment and articulate potential rationale, conceptualisation, and relevance of contextual attachment.

The acquisition of high resolution morpho-bathymetric data on the Calabro Tyrrhenian continental margin (Southern Italy) enabled us to identify several mass-wasting processes, including shallow gullies, shelf-indenting canyons and landslides. In particular, we focus our attention on submarine landslides occurring from the coast down to -1700 m, with mobilized volumes ranging from some hundreds up to tens of millions of cubic meters. These landslides also show a large variability of geomorphic features in the headwall, translational and toe domain. Based on their morphology and distribution, four main classes of coastal/submarine landslides have been recognized: a) rocky coastal/shallow-water failures characterized by large hummocky deposits offshore; b) large-size and isolated scars with associated landslide deposits, mostly occurring on open slope environment and lower part of tectonically-controlled escarpments; c) a linear array of coalescent and nested landslide scars occurring in the upper part of tectonically-controlled escarpments and canyon flanks; d) a cauliflower array of small and coalescent scars occurring in canyon headwall. The latter two classes of landslides are also characterized by a marked retrogressive evolution and their landslide deposits are generally not recognizable on the morpho-bathymetric data. By integrating the morpho-bathymetric dataset with the results of previous studies, we also discuss the main factors controlling the variability in size and morphology of these submarine landslides to provide insights on their failure and post-failure behavior.

Low carbon cities are increasingly forming a distinct strand of sustainability literature. Models have been developed to measure the performance of low carbon cities. The purpose of this paper is to formulate a strategy-based model to evaluate current performance and predict future conditions of low carbon cities. It examines the dynamic interrelationships between key performance indicators (KPIs), induces changes to city plan targets and then instantly predicts the outcome of these changes. Designed generic and flexible, the proposed model shows how low carbon targets could be used to guide the transformation of low carbon cities under four strategies: (1) passive intervention, (2) problem solving, (3) trend modifying and (4) opportunity seeking. Further, the model has been applied to 17 cities and then tested on 5 cities: London, New York, Barcelona, Dubai and Istanbul. The paper concludes with policy implications to realign city plans and support low carbon innovation.

Regional declines of the Korean fir (Abies koreana) have been observed since the 1980s on the subalpine region. To explain this decline, it is fundamental to investigate the degree to which environmental factors have contributed to plant distributions on diverse spatial scales. We applied a hierarchical regression model to determine quantitatively the relationship between the abundance of Korean fir (seedlings) and diverse environmental factors across two different ecological scales. We measured Korean fir density and the occurrence of its seedlings in 102 (84) plots nested at five sites and collected a range of environmental factors at the same plots. Our model included hierarchical explanatory variables at both site-level (weather conditions) and plot-level (micro-topographic factors, soil properties, and competing species). The occurrence of Korean fir seedlings was positively associated with moss cover and rock cover but negatively related to dwarf bamboo cover. On site-level, winter precipitation was significantly positively related to the occurrence of seedlings. A hierarchical Poisson regression model revealed that Korean fir density were negatively associated with slope aspect, topographic position index, Quercus mongolica cover, and mean summer temperature. Our results suggest that drought and competition with other species are factors which halt the survival of Korean fir. We can predict that the population of Korean fir will continue to decline on the Korean Peninsula due to rising temperatures and seasonal drought, and only a few Korean fir will survive on northern slopes or valleys where competition with dwarf bamboo and Q. mongolica can be avoided.

This paper considers a non-mixture cure model for right censored data. It utilizes the maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters in the non-mixture cure model. The simulation study is based on Fréchet susceptible distribution to evaluate the performance of the method. Comparing with Weibull and exponentiated exponential distributions, the non-mixture Fréchet distribution is shown to be the best in modeling a real data on allogeneic marrow HLA-matched donors and ECOG phase III clinical trial e1684 data.

This study focusses on identifying a set of representative future climate projections for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Although a large number of GCM’s predictor sets are nowadays available in the CMIP5 archive, the issue of their reliability for specific regions must still be confronted. This situation makes it imperative to sort out the most appropriate, single or small-ensemble set of GCMs for the assessment of climate change impacts in a region. Here a set of different approaches is adopted and applied for a step-wise shortlist and selection of appropriate climate models for the UIB under two RCPs: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, based on, a) range of projected mean changes, b) range of projected extreme changes, and c) skill in reproducing the past climate. Furthermore, because of higher uncertainties in climate projection for high mountainous regions like the UIB, a wider range of future GCM climate projections is considered by using all possible future extreme scenarios (wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold). Based on this two-fold procedure, a limited number of climate models is pre-selected, out of which the final selection is done by assigning ranks to the weighted score for each of the mentioned selection criteria. The dynamically downscaled climate projections from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) available for the top-ranked GCMs are further statistically downscaled (bias-corrected) over the UIB. The downscaled projections up to year 2100 indicate temperature increases ranging between 2.3 °C and 9.0 °C and precipitation changes that range, from a slight annual increase of 2.2% under the drier scenarios, to as high as 15.9% for the wet scenarios. Moreover, for all scenarios, the future precipitation will be more extreme, as the probability of wet days will decrease, while, at the same time, the precipitation intensities will increase. The spatial distribution of the downscaled predictors across the UIB also shows similar patterns for all scenarios, with a distinct precipitation decrease over the south-eastern parts of the basin, but an increase in the northeastern parts. These two features are particularly intense for the “Dry-Warm” and the “Median” scenarios over the late 21st century.

This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.

Field and numerical investigations at Happisburgh, East coast of England, UK, sought to characterize beach thickness and determine geologic framework controls on coastal change. After a major failure of coastal protection infrastructure, removal of about 1 km of coastal defense along the otherwise protected cliffed coastline of Happisburgh triggered a period of rapid erosion over 20 years of ca. 140 m. Previous sensitivity studies suggested that that beach thickness plays a major role in coastal recession. These studies were limited, however, by a lack of beach volume data. In this study, we have integrated the insights gained from our understanding of the Quaternary geology of the area, a novel non-intrusive passive seismic survey method, and a 3D novel representation of the subsurface source and transportable material into a coastal modelling environment to explore the role of beach thickness on the back wearing and down wearing of the cliffs and consolidated platform, respectively. Results show that beach thickness is non-homogeneous along the study site: we estimate that the contribution to nearshore sediment budget via platform down wearing is of a similar order of magnitude as sediment lost from the beach and therefore non-negligible. We have provided a range of evidence to support the idea that the Happisburgh beach is a relatively thin layer perched on a sediment rich platform of sand and gravel. This conceptualization differs from previous publications, which assumes that the platform was mostly till and fine material. This has direct implication on the regional sediment management of along this coastline. The present study contributes to our understanding of a poorly known aspect of coastal sediment budgeting and outlines a quantitative approach that allows for simple integration of geological understanding for coastline evolution assessments worldwide.

Theories of quantum gravity suggest that Lorentz invariance, the fundamental symmetry of the Theory of Relativity, may be broken at the Planck energy scale. While any deviation from conventional Physics must be minuscule in particular at attainable energies, this hypothesis motivates ever more sensitive tests of Lorentz symmetry. In the photon sector, astrophysical observations, in particular polarization measurements, are a very powerful tool because tiny deviations from Lorentz invariance will accumulate as photons propagate over cosmological distances. The Standard-Model Extension (SME) provides a theoretical framework in the form of an effective field theory that describes low-energy effects due to a more fundamental quantum gravity theory by adding additional terms to the Standard Model Lagrangian. These terms can be ordered by the mass dimension d of the corresponding operator and lead to a wavelength, polarization, and direction dependent phase velocity of light. In this paper, we analyze optical polarization measurements from 63 Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) and Gamma-ray Bursts (GRBs) in order to search for Lorentz violating signals. We derive the first set limits on each of the 10 individual birefringent coefficients of the minimal SME with d = 4, with 95% confidence limits on the order of 10⁻³⁴ on the dimensionless coefficients.

"The wisdom of crowd'' is so often observed in social discourses and activities around us. The manifestations of it are, however, so intrinsically embedded and behaviorally accepted that an elaboration of a social phenomenon evidencing such wisdom is often cheered as a discovery; or at least an astonishing fact. One such scenario is explored here, namely conceptualization and modeling of a food safety system, a system directly related to social cognition. Food safety is an area of concern these days. Models representing the food safety systems are recently published to study the effect of interactions between important entities of the system. For example, Knowles’s model finds conditions leading to a more efficient and dependable system of entities like consumers, regulators and stores with specific focus on regulators behavior and their impact on the food safety. The first contribution of this paper is reevaluation of Knowles’s model towards a more conscious understanding of ``the wisdom of crowd'' effects on inspection and consuming behaviors. The second contribution is augmenting of the model with social networking capabilities, which acts as a medium to spread information about stores and help consumers find stores which are not contaminated. Simulation results reveal that stores’ respecting social cognition improve effectiveness of the food safety system for consumers and stores both. Simulation findings also reveals that an active society has a capability to self-organize effectively even in the absence of any regulatory compulsion.

Looking at different operating climatic conditions, the electrical behavior predicting photovoltaic modules gets very important. For the estimation of output power from photovoltaic (PV) plants this is a very essential and basic aspect. In this paper, the relationship between the I-V curve and the irradiation spectrum is discussed by combining the single diode model. An explicit elementary analytical model with two defined shape parameters is discussed and improved with three approximations and second order Taylor expansion. Then, the explicit elementary analytical model is investigated under varying conditions leveraging the four parameters I_ph, I₀, R_s and R_sh from the single diode model. The relationship between the physical parameters and the condition parameters are discussed and applied to extract the shape parameters at different scenarios. Considering the aging effect, the process of calculation to predict the I-V curve under different splitting spectra is simplified as follow: (1) two shape parameters are gotten from the I-V data at measurement reference conditions (MRC); (2) the short circuit current, open circuit voltage and shape parameters under any splitting spectrum can be calculated based on the relationship provided in article; (3) the performance of PV panel can be predicted with parameters. The validation of this model was experimentally proven leveraging monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic module with different splitting films. Results showed that the model accurately predicts the I-V characteristics for the examined PV modules at different irradiance spectra and cell temperatures. Moreover, the presented model performs superior compared to other investigated models when looking at accuracy and simplicity.

Introduction. The use of probiotics demonstrate efficacy against obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS). Detection effective probiotic strains for hyperglycemia and immunity associated with is important task. The aim of the study was to evaluate an influence of Lactobacillus casei IMV B-7280 separately and composition L. casei IMV B-7280 / Bifidobacterium animalis VKB / B. animalis VKL on the levels of blood glucose and immunity in obese mice. Meterials and methods. Obesity was induced by fat-enriched diet (FED) in male BALB/c mice. Obese mice were transferred to standard diet and received per os probiotic strains daily during 10 days. We measured tumor necrosis factor-a (TNF-a) in blood serum using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and functional activity of peritoneal exudate macrophages (PEMs). Glucose levels in blood was defined with glucometer. Results. We ascertained that all probiotic strains induced reducing mice weight and visceral fat, normalization of TNF-a production and functional activity of PEMs. Treatment with L. casei IMV B-7280 was associated with decreasing blood glucose levels. No normalization of glucose and TNF-a levels in obese mice, transferred to standard diet without probiotic treatment, although we revealed decreasing their weight and visceral fat and partial recover of functional activity of PEMs. Conclusions. Probiotic strain L. casei IMV B-7280 (separately) and composition L. casei IMV B-7280 / B. animalis VKB / B. animalis VKL can re-equilibrate metabolic and inflammation indices in mouse obesity model. L. casei IMV B-7280 alone was more efficient in decreasing glucose levels than composition of strains.

In an open and dynamic IoT (the Internet of Things) environment, a common context information model is essential for active things to share common knowledge, reason their situations, and support adaptive interoperability with each other. There have been many studies on the IoT context information models based on semantic technology, but most of them have assumed a static situation based on a service-oriented information model suitable for specific applications of the IoT. In the case of applying their models to an open and dynamic IoT environment, two issues have been observed: Most of the models ignore (a) the mashup of the open-world semantics of context information generated by multiple context sources and (b) the reconciliation of the semantic relationships between multiple context entities under dynamic situation changes. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a context information model that is flexible enough to express complex and diverse semantic relationships between context information generated from a variety of context information sources in the IoT. The main background of this proposal is to propose an adaptive context model that can effectively mash up various context classes that use ontology in open and dynamic IoT environments. In this paper, we also show the effectiveness of the proposed model through an adequate verification model and a practical example.

The accurate monitoring of state of charge (SOC) and state of health (SOH) is critical for the reliable management of lithium-ion battery (LIB) systems. In this paper, the online model identification is scrutinized to achieve high modeling accuracy and robustness, and a model-based joint estimator is further proposed to estimate the SOC and SOH of LIB concurrently. Specifically, an adaptive forgetting recursive least squares (AF-RLS) method is exploited to optimize the estimation alertness and numerical stability, so as to achieve accurate online adaption of model parameters. Leveraging the online adapted battery model, a joint estimator is proposed by combining an open-circuit voltage (OCV) observer with a low-order state observer to co-estimate the SOC and capacity of LIB. Simulation and experimental studies are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed data-model fusion method. Results suggest that the proposed method can effectively track the variation of model parameters by using the onboard measured current and voltage data. The SOC and capacity can be further estimated in real time with fast convergence, high accuracy and high stability.

An imperative challenge emerges from the demand to construct a scientific method to recent agricultural and rural policies throughout the world. The objective of the present study is to conduct an ex-post quantitative evaluation of the Comprehensive Rural Village Development Project, a representative rural development project operated by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, a central government agency in South Korea. The primary purpose of the project is to ensure sustainable rural society. This study found a moderate but significant positive impact of the policy in enhancing the standard of living in rural areas. The present study concludes with suggesting some policy implications and future directions of policy evaluation studies.

Fracture density, a critical parameter of unconventional reservoirs, can be used to evaluate potential of unconventional reservoirs and location of production wells. Many technologies, such as amplitude variation with offset and azimuth (AVOA) technology, vertical seismic profiling (VSP) technology, and multicomponent seismic technology, are generally used to predict fracture of reservoirs. they can qualitatively predict fracture by analyzing seismic attributes, including seismic wave amplitudes, seismic wave velocities, which are sensitive to fracture. However, it is important to quantitatively describe fracture of reservoirs. In this study, based on a double-layer model, the relationships between fracture density and the double-layer model’s physical parameters, such as velocity of fast shear-wave, velocity of slow shear-wave, and density, were established, and then a powerful quantitative prediction method for fracture density was proposed dramatically. Afterwards, the Hudson model for crack was used to test the applicability of the method. The result shown that the quantitative prediction method for fracture density can be applied suitable to the Hudson model for crack. Finally, the result of validation models indicated that the method can predict fracture density effective, in which absolute relative deviation (ARD) were less than 5% and root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 4.88×10-3.

Increasing of the imaging rate of conventional atomic force microscopy (AFM) is almost impossible without impairing of the imaging quality, since the probe tip tends to lose contact with the sample. We propose to apply the additional nonlinear force on the upper surface of a cantilever, which will help to keep the tip and surface in contact. In practice this force can be produced by the precisely regulated airflow. Such an improvement affects the AFM system dynamics, which were evaluated using a mathematical model presented in this paper. The model defines the relationships between the additional nonlinear force, the pressure of the applied air stream and the initial air gap between the upper surface of the cantilever and the end of the air duct. It was found that the nonlinear force created by the stream of compressed air (aerodynamic force) prevents the contact loss caused by the high scanning speed or higher surface roughness, and at the same time has minimal influence on the interaction force, thus maintaining stable contact between the probe and the surface. This improvement allows to effectively increase the scanning speed by at least 10 times using a soft (spring constant of 0.2 N/m) cantilever by applying the air pressure of 40 Pa. If a stiff cantilever (spring constant of 40 N/m) is used, the potential of accuracy improvement reaches 92 times. This method is suitable for use with different types of AFM sensors and can be implemented practically without essential changes in AFM sensor design.

This paper addresses the problem of assessing and optimizing acoustic positioning system for underwater target localization with range measurements only. We present a new three-dimensional assessment model to assess the optimal geometric beacon formation whether meet user needs. For the sake of mathematical tractability, it is assumed that the measurements of the range between the target and beacons are corrupted with white Gaussian noise with variance is distance-dependent. Then by adopting dilution of precision (DOP) parameters in the assessment model, the relationship between DOP parameters and positioning accuracy is derived. In addition, the optimal geometric beacon formation that will yield the best performance is achieved by minimizing the values of geometric dilution of precision (GDOP) on condition that the position of target is known and fixed. Next, in order to make sure whether the estimate positioning accuracy over interesting region satisfy the precision needed by the users, geometric positioning accuracy (GPA), horizonal positioning accuracy (HPA) and vertical positioning accuracy (VPA) are utilized to assess the optimal geometric beacon formation. Simulation examples are designed to illustrate the exactness of the conclusion. Unlike other work which only use GDOP to optimize the formation and cannot assess the performance of the specified dimensions, this new three-dimensional assessment model can assess the optimal geometric beacon formation in each dimension for any point in three-dimensional space, which can provide users with guidance advices to optimize performance of every specified dimension.

During speciation-with-gene-flow, a transition from single-locus to multi-locus processes can occur, as strong coupling of multiple loci creates a barrier to gene flow. Testing predictions about such transitions with empirical data requires building upon past theoretical work and the continued development of quantitative approaches. We simulated genomes under different evolutionary scenarios of gene flow and divergent selection, extending previous work with the additions of neutral sites and coupling statistics, allowing us to investigate if and how selected and neutral sites differ in the conditions they require for transitions during speciation. As the per-locus strength of selection grew and/or migration decreased, it became easier for selected sites to show divergence – and thus to rise in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with each other as a statistical consequence – farther in advance of the conditions under which neutral sites could diverge. Indeed, even very low rates of gene flow were sufficient to prevent differentiation at neutral sites. However, once strong enough, coupling among selected sites eventually reduced gene flow at neutral sites as well. To explore whether similar transitions might be detectable in empirical data, we used published genome resequencing data from three taxa of Heliconius butterflies. We found that allele-frequency outliers and F ST outliers exhibited stronger patterns of LD than the genomic background, as expected. The statistical characteristics of LD – likely indicative of the strength of coupling of barrier loci – varied between chromosomes and taxonomic comparisons. Broad qualitative agreement between the patterns we observed in the empirical data and our simulations suggests that selection drives rapid genome-wide transitions to multi-locus coupling, illustrating how divergence and gene flow interact along the speciation continuum.

Software engineers from all over the world solve independently a lot of similar problems. In this condition the problem of code or even better architecture reusing becomes an issue of the day. In this paper two phase approach to determining the functional and structural likenesses of software projects is proposed. This approach combines two methods of artificial intelligence: natural language processing techniques with a novel method for comparing software projects based on ontological representation of their architecture automatically obtained from the projects source code. Additionally several similarity metrics are proposed to estimate similarity between projects.

Carbonic anhydrases (CAs) are metalloenzymes that are omnipresent in nature. The CAs catalyze the basic reaction of reversible hydration of CO₂ to HCO₃⁻ and H⁺ in all living organisms. Photosynthetic organisms contain six evolutionarily different classes of CAs, namely, α-CAs, β-CAs, γ-CAs, δ-CAs, ζ-CAs, and θ-CAs. Many of the photosynthetic organisms contain multiple isoforms of each CA family. Model alga, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii contains fifteen CAs belonging to three different CA gene families. Out of the fifteen CAs, three belong to α-CA gene family, nine to β-CA gene family, and three are γ-CAs. The multiple copies of the CAs in each gene family may be due to gene duplications within the particular CA gene family. The CAs of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii are localized in different subcellular compartments of this unicellular alga. The presence of a large number of CAs and their diverse subcellular localization within a single cell suggests the importance of these enzymes in metabolic and biochemical roles they perform in this unicellular alga. In the present review, we update the information on molecular biology of all the fifteen CAs and their metabolic and biochemical roles in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. We also present a hypothetical model showing the known functions of CAs and predicting the functions of CAs for which precise metabolic roles are yet to be discovered.

Mostly populous city like Chennai is subjected to frequent flooding due to its complex nature of natural and man-made activities. From the analysis of the past records of flood events of 1943,1976,1985,2005 and 2008,it has been observed Adayar watershed is subjected to cataclysmic flooding in low-lying areas of the city and its suburbs because of inoperativeness of the local drainage system, rainfall associated with cyclonic activity, topography of the terrain, encroachments along the floodplain, hugh upstream flow discharge into the river and the highly impervious area which blocked the runoff to flow into the storm water drainage. After looking into these problems of flooding, a study have been conducted on Adayar watershed to develop a 2D hydrodynamic model for the two scenarios of existing condition of storm water drainage network and revised conditions of storm water drainage network using high resolution Lidar DEM to assess the volume of runoff with respect to time and duration on flood peaks for the two flood events of 2005 and 2015.Secondly to develop a 1D flood model to predict the river stages during peak floods using MIKE 11 for the Adayar watershed. Thirdly to integrate the coupled 1D and 2D model using MIKEFLOOD for assessing the extent of inundation in the floodplain area of Adayar river. Finally results from the integrated model have been validated and the results found satisfactory. As a part of mitigation measures, two flood mitigation measures have been adopted. One measure such as revised storm water drainage system which enhances the flood carrying capacity of the drains and results in less inundated area which solves the problem of urban flooding and second measure such as regrading the river bed which reduces the floodplain inundation around the adjacent area of the river. After adopting these measures, the river is free to flow into the sea without any blockades.

This paper considers the problem of quantifying the quality of a model selection problem for a graphical model. The model selection problem often uses a distance measure such as the Kulback-Leibler (KL) distance to quantify the quality of the approximation between the original distribution and the model distribution. We extend this work by formulating the problem as a detection problem between the original distribution and the model distribution. In particular, we focus on the covariance selection problem by Dempster, [1], and consider the cases where the distributions are Gaussian distributions. Previous work showed that if the approximation model is a tree, that the optimal tree that minimizes the KL divergence can be found by using the Chow-Liu algorithm [2]. While the algorithm minimizes the KL divergence it does not minimize other measures such as other divergences and the area under the curve (AUC). These measures all depend on the eigenvalues of the correlation approximation measure (CAM). We find expressions for KL divergence, log-likelihood ratio, and AUC as a function of the CAM. Easily computable upper and lower bounds are also found for the AUC. The paper concludes by computing these measures for real and synthetic simulation data.

Targets detection in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) remote sensing images, which is a fundamental but challenging problem in the field of satellite image analysis, plays an important role for a wide range of applications and is receiving significant attention in recent years. Besides, the ability of human visual system to detect visual saliency is extraordinarily fast and reliable. However, computational modeling of SAR image scene still remains a challenge. This paper analyzes the defects and shortcomings of traditional visual models applied to SAR images. Then a visual attention model designed for SAR images is proposed. The model draws the basic framework of classical ITTI model; selects and extracts the texture features and other features that can describe the SAR image better. We proposes a new algorithm for computing the local texture saliency of the input image, then the model constructs the corresponding saliency maps of features; Next, a new mechanism of feature fusion is adopted to replace the linear additive mechanism of classical models to obtain the overall saliency map; Finally, the gray-scale characteristics of focus of attention (FOA) in saliency map of all features are taken into account, our model choose the best saliency representation, Through the multi-scale competition strategy, the filter and threshold segmentation of the saliency maps can be used to select the salient regions accurately, thereby completing this operation for the visual saliency detection in SAR images. In the paper, several types of satellite image data, such as TerraSAR-X (TS-X), Radarsat-2, are used to evaluate the performance of visual models. The results show that our model provides superior performance compared with classical visual models. By further contrasting with the classical visual models, Our model reduce the false alarm caused by speckle noise, and its detection speed is greatly improved, and it is increased by 25% to 45%.

This paper proposes a Mixed Integer Conic Programming (MICP) model for community microgrids considering the network operational constraints and building thermal dynamics. The proposed multi-objective optimization model optimizes not only the operating cost, including fuel cost, purchasing cost, battery degradation cost, voluntary load shedding cost and the cost associated with customer discomfort due to room temperature deviation from the set point, but also several performance indices, including voltage deviation, network power loss and power factor at the Point of Common Coupling (PCC). In particular, the detailed thermal dynamic model of buildings is integrated into the distribution optimal power flow (D-OPF) model for the optimal operation. The heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems can be scheduled intelligently to reduce the electricity cost while maintaining the indoor temperature in the comfort range set by customers. Numerical simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed model and significant savings in electricity cost with network operational constraints satisfied.

Most of the pore-scale imaging and simulations of non-Newtonian fluid are based on the simplifying geometry of network modeling and overlook the fluid rheology and heat transfer. In the present paper, we developed a non-isothermal and non-Newtonian numerical model of the flow properties at pore-scale by direct simulation of the 3D micro-CT images using a Finite Volume Method (FVM). The numerical model is based on the resolution of the momentum and energy conservation equations. Owing to an adaptive meshing technique and appropriate boundary conditions, rock permeability and mobility are accurately computed. A temperature and concentration-dependent power-law viscosity model in line with the experimental measurement of the fluid rheology is adopted. The model is first applied at isothermal condition to 2 benchmark samples, namely Fontainebleau sandstone and Grosmont carbonate, and is found to be in good agreement with the Lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). Finally, at non-isothermal conditions, an effective mobility is introduced that enables to perform a numerical sensitivity study to fluid rheology, heat transfer, and operating conditions. While the mobility seems to evolve linearly with polymer concentration, the effect of the temperature seems negligible by comparison. However, a sharp contrast is found between carbonate and sandstone under the effect of a constant temperature gradient. Besides concerning the flow index and consistency factor, a good master curve is derived when normalizing the mobility for both the carbonate and the sandstone.