Several cities are experiencing an increase in flood hazard and exposure, and consequentially in flood risk, attributable to the coupled effect of climate change and urbanization. Non-structural protection strategies demonstrate significant potential in the short term for mitigating hydraulic risk in urban areas, particularly where the implementation of structural measures is impeded by a complex urban environment. This work proposes an Early Warning System (EWS) for fluvial floods developed for the city of Palermo (Italy). It is based on the preliminary definition of po-tential Flood Event Scenarios (FESs) as a function of typical potential precursors. Each FES pre-dicts first points of flooding, flood areas and water depths, also providing specific hazard maps for people, vehicles, and buildings. The EWS uses rainfall depth-duration thresholds to assess the expected hydrograph as a function of rainfall forecasts and the water stage observed in real time at an upstream section of the river crossing the city. This last also allows for estimating the ante-cedent wetness conditions. Based on this information, the EWS retrieves an expected FES from a pre-built library with a preannouncement time up to 36 h. The EWS is here successfully tested on a historical flood event.

Diffusion Models (DMs) are probabilistic models that create realistic samples by simulating the diffusion process, gradually adding and removing noise from data. These models have gained popularity in domains such as image processing, speech synthesis, and natural language processing due to their ability to produce high-quality samples. As DMs are being adopted in various domains, existing literature reviews that often focus on specific areas like computer vision or medical imaging may not serve a broader audience across multiple fields. Therefore, this review presents a comprehensive overview of DMs, covering their theoretical foundations and algorithmic innovations. We highlight their applications in diverse areas such as media quality, authenticity, synthesis, image transformation, healthcare, and more. By consolidating current knowledge and identifying emerging trends, this review aims to facilitate a deeper understanding and broader adoption of DMs and provide guidelines for future researchers and practitioners across diverse disciplines.

For analysis tasks, time counts are of interest — values recorded at some, usually equidistant, points in time. The calculation can be performed at various intervals: after a minute, an hour, a day, a week, a month, or a year, depending on how much detail the process should be analyzed. In time series analysis problems, we deal with discrete-time, when each observation of a parameter forms a time frame. The same can be said about the behavior of Covid-19 over time.In this paper, we solve the problem of predicting Covid-19 diseases in the world using neural networks. This approach is useful when it is necessary to overcome difficulties related to non-stationarity, incompleteness, unknown distribution of data, or when statistical methods are not completely satisfactory. The problem of forecasting is solved with the help of the analytical platform Deductor Studio, developed by specialists of the company Intersoft Lab of the Russian Federation. When solving this problem, appropriate methods were used to clean the data from noise and anomalies, which ensured the quality of building a predictive model and obtaining forecast values for tens of days ahead. The principle of time series forecasting was also demonstrated: import, seasonal detection, cleaning, smoothing, building a predictive model, and predicting Covid-19 diseases in the world using neural technologies for 30 days ahead.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Lightweight Gradient Boosting Machines (Light GBM), Machine Learning, Solar Irradiance (SI), Solar forecasting

To minimise environmental impact, avoid regulatory penalties, and improve competitiveness, energy-intensive manufacturing firms require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. Deep learning is widely touted as a superior analytical technique to traditional artificial neural networks, machine learning, and other classical time series models due to its high dimensionality and problem solving capabilities. Despite this, research on its application in demand-side energy forecasting is limited. We compare two benchmarks (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and an existing manual technique used at the case site) against three deep learning models (simple Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)) and three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVM), Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)) for short term load forecasting (STLF) using data from a Brazilian thermoplastic resin manufacturing plant. We use the grid search method to identify the best configurations for each model, and then use Diebold-Mariano testing to confirm the results. Results suggests that the legacy approach used at the case site is the worst performing, and that the GRU model outperformed all other models tested.

Nowadays, power sector is an area that gather great scientific interest, due to events such as the increase in electricity prices in the wholesale energy market and new investments due to technological development in various sectors. These new challenges have in turn created new needs, such as the accurate prediction of the electrical load of the end users. On the occasion of the new challenges, Artificial Neural Networks approaches have become increasingly popular due to their ability to adopt efficiently to time-series predictions. In this paper, it is presented the development of a model which, through an automated process, will provide an accurate prediction of electrical load for the island of Thira in Greece. Through an automated application, deep learning load forecasting models have been created, such as Multilayer Perceptron, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network One Dimensional (CNN-1D), CNN-LSTM, Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) and a proposed hybrid model called Convolutional LSTM Encoder-Decoder. The results in terms of prediction accuracy show satisfactory performances for all models, with the proposed hybrid model achieving the best accuracy.

Healthcare professionals and resource planners can use healthcare delivery process mining to ensure the optimal utilisation of scarce healthcare resources when developing policies. Within hospitals, patients' Length of Stay (LOS) and volume of admitted patients, in terms of number and characteristics (age, gender, and social deter-minants), are significant factors determining daily resource requirements. In this study, we used Coxian phase-type Distribution (C-PHD) based Phase-Type Survival (PTS) trees for analysing how covariates such as admission date, gender, age, district, and admissions source influence the admission rate and LOS distribution. PTS trees. This study used a two-year data set (2011-2012) of patients admitted to the Emergency Department at Mater Dei Hospital to generate models and an independent one-year data set (2013) of patients admitted to the Emergency Department at Mater Dei Hospital to evaluate. The PTS tree effectively clusters patients based on their LOS, considering the prognostic significance of different covariates related to patients' characteristics. Charac-terising these covariates provided meaningful results about LOS. Similarly, the PTS tree was used to effectively cluster patients based on the admission rate, considering the prognostic significance of these covariates.

This article presents a comprehensive study on enhancing grid resilience through advanced forecasting and optimization techniques in the context of power outages. Power outages pose significant challenges to modern societies, affecting various sectors such as industries, households, and critical infrastructures. The research combines statistical analysis, machine learning algorithms, and optimization methods to address this issue to develop a holistic approach for predicting and mitigating power outage events. The proposed methodology involves the use of Monte Carlo simulations in MATLAB for future outage prediction, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for forecasting solar irradiance and load profiles, and a hybrid LSTM-Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) model to improve accuracy. Furthermore, the role of Battery State of Charge (SoC) in enhancing system resilience is explored. The study also assesses the techno-economic advantages of a grid-tied microgrid integrated with solar panels and batteries over conventional grid systems. The results highlight the potential of the proposed approach in strengthening grid resilience, reducing downtime, and fostering sustainable energy utilization.

Recent improvements in deepfake creation have made deepfake videos more realistic. Moreover, open-source software has made deepfake creation more accessible, which reduces the barrier to entry for deepfake creation. This could pose a threat to the people’s privacy. There is a potential danger if the deepfake creation techniques are used by people with an ulterior motive to produce deepfake videos of world leaders to disrupt the order of countries and the world. Therefore, research into the automatic detection of deepfaked media is essential for public security. In this work, we propose a deepfake detection method using upper body language analysis. Specifically, a many-to-one LSTM network was designed and trained as a classification model for deepfake detection. Different models were trained by varying the hyperparameters to build a final model with benchmark accuracy. We achieved 94.39% accuracy on the deepfake test set. The experimental results showed that upper body language can effectively detect deepfakes.

The use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows the analysis of future diseases propagations. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were proposed two methodologies to predict 28 days ahead the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, United Kingdom, and Germany, and a case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries size, and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized, at least with one dose of vaccine. As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology and targets other possibilities of use for the proposed method. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1 to 28 days ahead forecast lower than 30 cases, 0,6 deaths and 2,5 ICU patients by million people.

This paper explores the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting trends in the fixed bond market, where traditional analytical methods have proven inadequate. Focusing on various ML techniques such as supervised and unsupervised learning, neural networks, and deep learning, the study evaluates their effectiveness in forecasting market movements. It details a series of experiments in which different ML models are rigorously trained and tested against historical bond market data. The findings reveal that models employing time series analysis and advanced deep learning show marked potential in accurately predicting bond market trends. Additionally, the paper delves into the challenges and limitations inherent in these ML approaches, including data requirements and the risk of model overfitting. Finally, it proposes directions for future research, emphasizing the integration of ML into broader financial market analysis.

The sustainability of the planet and its inhabitants is in dire danger and is among the highest priorities on global agendas such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations (UN). Solar energy -- among other clean, renewable, and sustainable energies -- is seen as essential for environmental, social, and economic sustainability. Predicting solar energy accurately is critical to increasing reliability and stability, and reducing the risks and costs of the energy systems and markets. Researchers have come a long way in developing cutting-edge solar energy forecasting methods. However, these methods are far from optimal in terms of their accuracies, generalizability, benchmarking, and other requirements. Particularly, no single method performs well across all climates and weathers due to the large variations in meteorological data. This paper proposes SENERGY (an acronym for Sustainable Energy), a novel deep learning-based auto-selective approach and tool that, instead of generalising a specific model for all climates, predicts the best performing deep learning model for GHI forecasting in terms of forecasting error. The approach is based on carefully devised deep learning methods and feature sets through an extensive analysis of deep learning forecasting and classification methods using ten meteorological datasets from three continents. We analyse the tool in great detail through a range of metrics and methods for performance analysis, visualization, and comparison of solar forecasting methods. SENERGY outperforms existing methods in all performance metrics including Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Forecast Skills (FS), Relative Forecasting Error, and the normalised versions of these metrics. The proposed auto-selective approach can be extended to other research problems such as wind energy forecasting and predict forecasting models based on different criteria (in addition to the minimum forecasting error used in this paper) such as the energy required or speed of model execution, different input features, different optimisations of the same models, or other user preferences.

This study advances the field of solar irradiance nowcasting by introducing a discrete-level classification approach, diverging from traditional continuous measurement methods. Grounded in a need for cost-effective and modular solutions, the research employs high-resolution computer vision coupled with a deep learning framework to predict Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI). By harnessing the capabilities of a Logitech C900 1080p HD camera and an NVIDIA Jetson module, the study achieves real-time data processing, pivotal for CSP systems' operational efficiency. The core of the methodology is the ResNet-50 convolutional neural network, refined via transfer learning on a bespoke dataset, culminating in a predictive accuracy of 85.78%. This discrete classification model contrasts with conventional, costly instruments like the MS-57, offering a novel and accessible alternative for DNI estimation. Such innovation not only demonstrates high predictive accuracy but also signifies a shift towards less resource-intensive and more adaptable solar energy forecasting tools, contributing a significant leap towards optimizing renewable energy systems.

Electricity demand prediction is vital for energy production management and proper exploitation of the present resources. Recently, several novel machine learning (ML) models have been employed for electricity demand prediction to estimate the future prospects of the energy requirements. The main objective of this study is to review the various ML models applied for electricity demand prediction. Through a novel search and taxonomy, the most relevant original research articles in the field are identified and further classified according to the ML modeling technique, perdition type, and the application area. A comprehensive review of the literature identifies the major ML models, their applications and a discussion on the evaluation of their performance. This paper further makes a discussion on the trend and the performance of the ML models. As the result, this research reports an outstanding rise in the accuracy, robustness, precision and the generalization ability of the prediction models using the hybrid and ensemble ML algorithms.

This paper presents MADS (Multi-Agents for Data Science), an innovative and simple open-source multi-agent framework designed for systemic pipeline execution in applied supervised machine learning. By leveraging the capabilities of multi-agent systems (MAS), we introduce a universal approach to optimize and streamline machine learning pipelines. Our framework highlights the differences between various types of agents, such as reinforcement learning (RL) agents and large language model (LLM) agents, and their distinct contributions to the process. While we currently employ LLM agents to automate and enhance machine learning tasks, we acknowledge the potential of incorporating RL agents in future iterations to further improve performance and adaptability. The primary objective is to enhance the efficiency, scalability, and adaptability of supervised learning applications across various domains. This integration addresses the complexity and manual effort typically associated with machine learning workflows, paving the way for more automated, robust, and scalable solutions. Our approach demonstrates significant improvements in task automation, reduced human intervention, and enhanced model performance. The MADS framework, which will soon be available as an open-source implementation, represents a pivotal contribution to the field of machine learning, promising to facilitate broader adoption and collaborative advancement.