Biology is about structure. Structures within structures. Organs within animals, tissues within organs, cells within tissues, and molecules, often proteins within cells. The structures are so complex that they can only be described by numbers. No numbers are of more importance than those that describe proteins. The numbers that describe coordinates of its atoms, often determined by Patterson functions (which are inverse Fourier Transforms of intensities) of crystal diffraction. Without these numbers, structural biology would hardly exist. Without numbers, engineering would not exist. Numbers are surely needed by the engineers who produce the x-rays diffracting from atoms of protein crystals. Devices of engineering have function. They are built to implement equations. Engineering devices use structures to implement equations, when power is supplied at the right places, that produces appropriate flows. Flows are the essence of life. Equilibrium means death in most living systems. Flows in biological structures are hard to analyze because we do not know input output equations in advance. Sometimes we do not know their function. Flows, forces, and structures of life (like those of engineering) are related by field equations of conservation laws, partial differential equations, constrained by location and properties of structures. Constraints are boundary conditions located on the complicated domain of biological structure. Dealing with this complexity is simplified if one systematically analyzes structure using the most general field theory known, electricity described by the Maxwell equations, without significant known error. Currents are involved because flows of biology usually involve migration of charges, convection of water and solutes, diffusion of ions that form the plasma of life, and their interactions. Interactions can dominate function. Here I show how a few complex structures can be understood in engineering detail. This approach may be useful in dealing with biological and medical issues in many other cases. In one limited case—the clearance of a toxic waste (potassium ions) from the optic nerve—this approach seems to have succeeded.

Phase transitions- both in the classical and in the quantum version- are the perfect playground for appreciating universality at work. Indeed, the fine details become unimportant and a classification in very few universality classes is possible. Very recently, a striking deviation from this picture has been discovered: some antiferromagnetic spin chains with competing interactions show a different set of phase transitions depending on the parity of number of spins in the chain. The aim of this article is to demonstrate that the same behavior also characterizes the most simple quantum spin chain: the Ising model in a transverse field. By means of an exact solution based on a Wigner-Jordan transformation, we show that a first order quantum phase transition appears at zero applied field in the odd spin case, while it is not present in the even case. A hint of a possible physical interpretation is given by the combination of two fact: at the point of the phase transition, the degeneracy of the ground state in the even and the odd case substantially differ, being respectively 2 and 2N, with N the number of spins; the spin of the most favorable kink states changes at that point.

3D city models integrate heterogeneous urban data from multiple sources in a unified geospatial representation, combining both semantics and geometry. Although in the last decades, they are predominantly used for visualization, today they are used in a large range of tasks related to exploration, analysis, and management across multiple domains. The complexity of urban processes and the diversity of urban environment bring challenges to the implementation of 3D city models. To address such challenges, this paper presents the development process of a 3D city model of a single neighborhood in Sofia city based on CityGML 2.0 standard. The model represents the buildings in LOD1 with a focus on CityGML features of related to the buildings like building part, terrain intersection curve and address. Similar building models of 18 cities provided as open datasets are explored and compared in order to extract good modeling practices. As a result, workflows for generation of 3D building models in LOD1 are elaborated and improvements in the feature modeling are proposed. Two options of building model are examined: modeling of a building as a single solid and modeling of a building with separate building parts. Finally, the possibilities for visualization of the model in popular platforms such as ArcGIS Pro and Cesium Ion are explored.

Unhealthy diet is an important health problem in the region of the Americas, and Uruguay does not escape this reality. Nutritional problems in Uruguayan school-age children are overweight and obesity. Caloric intake is excessive for 60% of children and 28% of calories come from ultra-processed products (UPP) [CODICEN 2021] [MIDES 2020) (Köncke, Toledo, 2021). In 2018, an evaluation of food intake was conducted in a representative sample of public schools in the city of Montevideo. Food and preparations were categorized according to the NOVA system, later they were analyzed according to the Pan American Health Oganization nutrient profile model (PAHO NPM). Only 0.52% of children consumed exclusively natural foods, unprocessed, minimally processed or culinary ingredients. Twenty-five percent of children consumed ≥ 4 products categorized with excessive content of free sugars, total fat or saturated fat according to the PAHO NPM; in the case of excessive sodium this was 40%. In general, children who included products with excessive free sugars, sodium or saturated fat in their diet exceeded the limits established by PAHO and as a result their diet is of poorer nutritional quality compared to children who did not consume such products.

Natural disasters are showing an increase in the magnitude, frequency, and geographic distribution. Studies have shown that individuals’ self-sufficiency, which largely depends on household preparedness, is very important for hazard mitigation in at least the first 72 hours following a disaster. However, for factors that influence a household’s disaster preparedness, though there are many studies trying to identify from different aspects, we still lack an integrative analysis on how these factors contribute to a household’s preparation. This paper aims to build a classification model to predict whether a household has prepared for a potential disaster based on their personal characteristics and the environment they located. We collect data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Household Survey in 2018 and train four classification models - logistic regression, decision trees, support vector machines, and multi-layer perceptron classifier models- to predict the impact of personal characteristics and the environment they located on household prepare for the potential natural disaster. Results show that the multi-layer perceptron classifier model outperforms others with the highest scoring on both recall (0.8531) and f1 measure (0.7386). In addition, feature selection results also show that among other factors, a household’s accessibility to disaster-related information is the most critical factor that impacts household disaster preparation. Though there is still room for further parameter optimization, the model gives a clue that we could support disaster management by gathering publicly accessible data.

A robust hydrological assessment is challenging in regions where human interference, within all aspects of the hydrological system, significantly alters the flow regime of rivers. The challenge was to extend a large-scale water resources model, GWAVA, to better represent water resources without increasing the model complexity. A groundwater and a regulated reservoir routine were incorporated into GWAVA using modifications of the existing AMBHAS-1D and Hanasaki methodologies, respectively. The groundwater routine can be varied in complexity when sufficient input data is available but fundamentally is driven by three input parameters. The reservoir routine was extended to account for the presence of large, regulated reservoirs using two calibratable parameters. The additional groundwater processes and reservoir regulation was tested in two highly anthropogenically influenced basins in India: the Cauvery and Narmada. The inclusion of the revised groundwater routine improved the simulation of streamflow in the headwater catchments and was successful in improving the representation of the baseflow component. In addition, the model was able to produce a time series of daily groundwater levels, recharge to groundwater and groundwater abstraction. The regulated reservoir routine improved the simulation of streamflow in catchments downstream of major reservoirs, where the streamflow was largely reflective of reservoir releases, when calibrated using downstream observed streamflow records. The model was able to provide a more robust representation of the annual volume and daily outflow released from the major reservoirs and simulate the major reservoir storages adequately. The addition of one-dimensional groundwater processes and a regulated reservoir routine proved successful in improving the model performance and traceability of water balance components, without excessively increasing the model complexity and input data requirements.

The vibrational excitation cross section of a diatomic molecule by positron impact is obtained using wavepacket propagation techniques. The dynamics was carried on a two-dimensional potential energy surface which couples a hydrogen-like harmonic oscillator to a positron via a spherically symmetric correlation polarization potential. The cross section for the excitation of the first vibrational mode is in good agreement with previous reports. Our model suggests that a positron couples to the target vibration by responding instantly to an interaction potential which depends on the target vibrational coordinate.

Severe thunderstorms are often accompanied by strong vertical air currents, temporary wind gusts, and heavy rainfall. The development of this atmospheric phenomenon over tropical shallow water zones, such as bays, can lead to intensification of atmospheric disturbances and produce a small-scale storm surge. Here, the storm surge that occurred on 19 March 2017 in the Persian Gulf coastal area has been investigated. Air temperature, precipitation, mean sea level pressure, wave height, wind direction, wind speed, geopotential height, zonal components, meridional winds, vertical velocity, relative humidity, and specific humidity obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF (and Global Forecast System (FNL) were used to implement the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results showed that the main cause of the storm surge was the occurrence of a supercell thunderstorm over the Persian Gulf. The formation of this destructive phenomenon resulted from a downburst under Cumulonimbus cloud and high-velocity air subsidence, after collision with the sea surface coinciding with the high tide. This caused a severe, yet temporary, gust, which in turn caused the creation of the four waves of 3.1 m height along the coast of Bandar Dayyer.

Low-energy Coulomb excitation is capable of providing unique information on static electromagnetic moments of short-lived excited nuclear states, including non-yrast states. The process selectively populates low-lying collective states and is therefore ideally suited to study phenomena such as shape coexistence and development of exotic deformation (triaxial or octupole shapes). Historically, these experiments were restricted to stable isotopes. However, the advent of new facilities providing intense beams of short-lived radioactive species has opened the possibility to apply this powerful technique to a much wider range of nuclei. We discuss the observables that can be measured in a Coulomb-excitation experiment, their relation to nuclear structure parameters with an emphasis on the nuclear shape, and present some recent examples of Coulomb-excitation studies that provided outcomes relevant for the Shell Model.

In this note we study the binomial model applied to European, American and Bermudan type of derivatives. Our aim is to give the necessary and sufficient conditions under which we can define a fair value via replicating portfolios for any derivative using simple mathematical arguments and without using no arbitrage techniques. Giving suitable definitions we are able to define rigorously the fair value of any derivative without using concepts from probability theory or stochastic analysis therefore is suitable for students or young researchers. It will be clear in our analysis that if $e^{r \delta} \notin [d,u]$ then we can not define a fair value by any means for any derivative while if $d \leq e^{r \delta} \leq u$ we can. Therefore the definition of the fair value of a derivative is not so closely related with the absence of arbitrage. In the usual probabilistic point of view we assume that $d < e^{r \delta} < u$ in order to define the fair value but it is not clear what we can (or we can not) do in the cases where $e^{r \delta} \leq d$ or $e^{r \delta} \geq u$.

Surrogate model based optimization method is widely-used to accelerate the design and optimization process~\cite{marler2004survey}. The input of regression model used in the surrogate model are numbers, which requires users to parametrize the geometries. In this paper, a new parameterization-free surrogate model is introduced and its corresponding uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis method are discussed. The input of new surrogate model methods is surface mesh of simulation domain. \Gls{gnns} is used to extract geometric information, and \Gls{cnns} is used to predict contours. This framework bypasses parameterization,as a consequence, uncertainties introduced by manual parameterization is reduced. However, such changes compared with conventional surrogate model methods impose great challenge on uncertainties quantification and sensitivity analysis. Uncertainties quantification in this paper means the error bar of prediction results, which is calculated by Gaussian Process Regression method in current surrogate method. In this paper, a new quantification method achieved by Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) is introduced. And the sensitivity analysis is conducted by Automatic Differentiation, which gives a Jacobian matrix of inputs. The method and analysis mentioned above are demonstrated by a low-pressure steam turbine rotator and its exhaust system.

The most common and taught membrane theory assumes that the membrane behaves as a kind of electrical capacitance that is exposed to an electrical current generated by an ionic flow. If this statement is verifiable, it can be confirmed by the laws of physics, mathematics and in particular electricity. We will demonstrate that this hypothesis is not verified and that it is necessary to modify biophysics according to already established and experimentally verified principles of physics.

This study explores the use of satellite-based LULC (Land Use / Land Cover) data while simultaneously correcting potential evapotranspiration (PET) input with Leaf Area Index (LAI) to increase the performance of a physically distributed hydrologic model. The mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) was selected for this purpose due to its unique features. Since LAI input informs the model about vegetation dynamics, we incorporated the LAI based PET correction option together with multi-year LULC data. The Globcover land cover data was selected for the single land cover cases, and hybrid of CORINE (coordination of information on the environment) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land cover datasets were chosen for the cases with multiple land cover datasets. These two datasets complement each other since MODIS has no separate forest class but more frequent (yearly) observations than CORINE. Calibration period spans from 1990 to 2006 and corresponding NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) values varies between 0.23 and 0.42, while the validation period spans from 2007 to 2010 and corresponding NSE values are between 0.13 and 0.39. The results revealed that the best performance is obtained when multiple land cover datasets are provided to the model and LAI data is used to correct PET, instead of default aspect-based PET correction in mHM. This study suggests that to minimize errors due to parameter uncertainties in physically distributed hydrologic models, adequate information can be supplied to the model with care taken to avoid over-parameterizing the model.

Modern agent-based models (ABM) and other simulation models require evaluation and testing of many different parameters. Managing that testing for large scale parameter sweeps (grid searches) as well as storing simulation data requires multiple, potentially customizable steps that may vary across simulations. Furthermore, parameter testing, processing, and analysis are slowed if simulation and processing jobs cannot be shared across teammates or computational resources. While high-performance computing (HPC) has become increasingly available, models can often be tested faster through the use of multiple computers and HPC resources. To address these issues, we created the Distributed Automated Parameter Testing (DAPT) Python package. By hosting parameters in an online (and often free) "database", multiple individuals can run parameter sets simultaneously in a distributed fashion, enabling ad hoc crowdsourcing of computational power. Combining this with a flexible, scriptable tool set, teams can evaluate models and assess their underlying hypotheses quickly. Here we describe DAPT and provide an example demonstrating its use.

Advancing models for accurate estimation of food production is essential for policymaking and managing national plans of action for food security. This research proposes two machine learning models for the prediction of food production. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) methods are used to advance the prediction models. In the present study, two variables of livestock production and agricultural production were considered as the source of food production. Three variables were used to evaluate livestock production, namely livestock yield, live animals, and animal slaughtered, and two variables were used to assess agricultural production, namely agricultural production yields and losses. Iran was selected as the case study of the current study. Therefore, time-series data related to livestock and agricultural productions in Iran from 1961 to 2017 have been collected from the FAOSTAT database. First, 70% of this data was used to train ANFIS and MLP, and the remaining 30% of the data was used to test the models. The results disclosed that the ANFIS model with Generalized bell-shaped (Gbell) built-in membership functions has the lowest error level in predicting food production. The findings of this study provide a suitable tool for policymakers who can use this model and predict the future of food production to provide a proper plan for the future of food security and food supply for the next generations.

We study the problem of predicting time series data using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in an online manner. Existing algorithms require model selection, which is time consuming and inapt for the setting of online learning. Using adaptive online learning techniques, we develop algorithms for fitting ARIMA models with fewest possible hyperparameters. We analyse the regret bound of the proposed algorithms and examine their performance using experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets

Gauge fields control the dynamics of fermions, also a back reaction of fermions on the gauge field is expected. This back reaction is investigated within the vortex picture of the QCD vacuum. We show that the center vortex model reproduces the string tension of the full theory also with the presence of fermionic fields.

Integral atmospheric dispersion models are used widely for flammable hazard and its risk analysis. There is a widespread belief that flammable distances from these models are conservative when flammable ranges are calculated using the 0.5 lower flammability limits (LFL) concentration threshold. This is erroneous. This paper traces through the development of these models and the research that led to the Birch Guidance. It shows that the 0.5 LFL is a necessary factor to transform the results of dispersion models designed for environmental assessment to applications to flammable hazard assessment in quiescent conditions. Current applications do not take account of turbulence due to wind, large and small obstructions, etc. A set of simple guidance is given in the paper to manage flammable hazards based on results from atmospheric dispersion models, including topics for future research.

Since December 2019, the world is fighting against coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This disease is caused by a novel coronavirus termed as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This work focuses on the applications of machine learning algorithms in the context of COVID-19. Firstly, regression analysis is performed to model the number of confirmed cases and death cases. Our experiments show that autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) can reliably model the increase in the number of confirmed cases and can predict future cases. Secondly, a number of classifiers are used to predict whether a COVID-19 patient needs to be admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) or semi-ICU. For this, classification algorithms are applied to a dataset having 5644 samples. Using this dataset, the most significant attributes are selected using features selection by ExtraTrees classifier, and Proteina C reativa (mg/dL) is found to be the highest-ranked feature. In our experiments, random forest, logistic regression, support vector machine, XGBoost, stacking and voting classifiers are applied to the top 10 selected attributes of the dataset. Results show that random forest and hard voting classifiers achieve the highest classification accuracy values near 98%, and the highest recall value of 98% in predicting the need for admission into ICU/semi ICU units.

In cotton cultivars, an insect that causes irreversible damage is the Spodoptera frugiperda, known as the fall armyworm. Since the visual detection of plants is a burdensome task for human inspection, the spectral information related to plant damage, registered on a spectral scale, can be useful. These measurements, associated with machine learning techniques, produce useful information for a rapid and non-invasive inspection method development. To contribute to this gap fulfillment, this paper proposes a machine learning framework to model the spectral response of cotton plants under the attack of the fall armyworm. Additionally, a theoretical model is presented, built from the results of the machine learning analysis, to infer this damage with up-to-date orbital sensors. The data was composed of the reflectance measurements collected at a cotton field with control plants and plants submitted to Spodoptera frugiperda damage. Their spectral response was recorded with a hand-held spectroradiometer ranging from 350 to 2,500 nm, for eight consecutive days. Different machine learning models were evaluated and the overall best model was defined by accuracies comparisons on a testing-set. A ranking approach was adopted based on the model accuracy, returning the most contributive wavelengths for the classification. Sequentially, an unsupervised neural network (Self-Organizing Map - SOM) was implemented to reduce data-dimensionality and assist in the definition of important spectral regions. The regions were associated with the spectral bands of the two sensors (OLI and MSI) and a theoretical model using a band simulation process with the overall best machine learning model was proposed. The results indicated that the Random Forest (RF) algorithm is the most suitable to predict cotton-plants damaged by insects and that the last day of analysis (8th day) was better to separate it, with F-measure equals 0.912. The ranking approach combined with the SOM method indicated the spectral regions at the red to near-infrared (650 to 1,350 nm) and shortwave infrared (1,570 to 1,640 nm) as the most important regions to the analysis. The proposed theoretical model simulated with the OLI and MSI sensor-bands returned an F-Measure of 0.865 and 0.886, respectively. In conclusion, this framework can be used to map cotton-plants under insect-attack. The theoretical model presents high accuracy to infer the insect-damaged on cotton plants based on multispectral bands from other sensors, being a useful tool for future research that intends to evaluate it in other areas and at different field scales.

New analysis regarding the structure of center vortices and their color structure is presented: Using data from gluonic SU(2) lattice simulation with Wilson action a correlation of fluctuations in color space to curvature of vortex fluxes was found. Finite size effects of the S2-homogeneity hint at color homogeneous regions on the vortex surface.

The aim of this study was to identify MFIs specific determinants of capital structure of selected micro finance institutions in Ethiopia. The researcher employed quantitative research approach with explanatory research design. The result of regression analysis showed that out that variables like growth, profitability, firm size, age, and asset tangibility have positive and statistically significant effect on leverage ratio. Whereas, profitability has statistically significant and negative effect on capital structure. Based on the findings of the study, the researcher concluded that the firm specific determinants of capital structure of micro finance institutions in Ethiopia were growth, profitability, firm size, age, and asset tangibility.

Zebrafish is an excellent model for observing human genetic disorders. Hearing impairment is the most common genetic disorder including syndromic & non-syndromic hearing loss. Stem cell therapies are considered a new hope in case of hearing impairment. Stem cells are the master cells of the human body and having the capability to differentiate into any other form of cells in more than 200 types of cells (regeneration). This review article describes zebrafish as a biomedical model for stem cell research in hearing impairment, which revolutionized the biomedical arena to compete for the challenges.

Glioma accounts for the highest proportion of primary intracranial malignant tumors. Microenvironment enormously influences the process of glioma progression. Our study is to establish an individualized prognostic nomogram for glioma patients with microenvironment signature. Glioma samples of Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas (CGGA) were grouped by the immune and stromal score based on ESTIMATE algorithm. Microenvironment-related genes (MRGs) in glioma were analyzed by R. To determine the best prognostic correlation genes, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to analyze MRGs. Use the selected genes (CHI3L1, SOCS3, SLC47A2, COL3A1, SRPX2 and SERPINA3), we established the prognostic risk score model (microenvironment signature) and validated it. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) showed that the high-risk group was mainly enriched in immune and stromal function KEGG pathways. Finally, the nomogram was constructed and evaluated. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA) of training and validation set indicated the excellent predictive performance of nomogram. In conclusion, the 6-gene microenvironment signature can not only provide directions for the basic research of glioma, but also can be included as an independent prognostic index in nomogram for individual prediction to guide clinical treatment.

The purpose of this study is to estimate the mean transitioning probabilities from a Healthy state to malaria positive uncomplicated state or to malaria positive severe state. It also classifies the various transitioning probabilities of moving through the various states based on some baseline characteristics. Malaria test results for 2019 over a 12-month period were collected from the University of Ghana school clinic. An H-U model for the study was developed and the transition rates from the cross-sectional data are indicated. With two states Healthy (H) and Uncomplicated (U) forming a state space, there were four possible transitions. The results show that the probability of transitioning from a Healthy state to a malaria positive state is 0.03% while the probability that an individual will remain at Healthy state (H) after the test is 99.73%. It was found that if an individual is already positive and has taken medication the probability that its second test came out negative is 6.45% while the chances that it will remain positive but uncomplicated is 93.55%. The study also showed that in the long run, about 95.98% of persons who visited the student clinic with malaria symptoms recorded negative tests for malaria parasite while about 4% recorded positive for malaria. In terms of disaggregation by gender, it was realized that the number of reported negative test results were higher for females (97.08%) than for males (96.13%). However, the infection rate is higher for males (3.87%) than females (2.92%). It is recommended that in as much as the University of Ghana has two health centers (a clinic and hospital), there should be a centralized system to track students’ health so research done would not be biased.

Bell's theorem can be refuted by presenting a counterexample which predicts correctly the expectation values of QM. As Bell has only ruled out noncontextual models a contextual model with hidden variables would refute his theorem. Such a model is presented able to explain the spin measurement results with entangled photons or electrons. It is not ruled out by the Kochen-Specker Theorem. Consequences for the feasibility of quantum computers are discussed.

Pathogens and adulterants in human feeding consumables can be readily identified according to their electrical properties. Electrical bioimpedance analysis (BIA) has been widely used for body contents characterization, such as blood, urine, lactate and sweat. If the blood glucose concentration alters the electrical properties of the blood medium, then the impedance spectrum obtained by BIA can be used to measure glycemia. In some applications, artificial neural networks allows the correlation of these parameters (impedance and glucose concentration) by means of symbolic and statistical rules. According to our literature review, there is any physical model that allows the interpretation of the relationship between blood’s electrical properties, obtained by BIA, and the concentration of glucose in the blood plasma. This article proposes a simplified physical model for blood electrical conductivity as a function of glucose concentration, based on Bruggeman’s effective medium theory. The equations of this model were obtained considering an insulating phase distribution diffused in a conductive matrix, in which red blood cells are represented by macroscopic insulating nuclei and glucose molecules by microscopic insulating particles. The impedance spectrum for different glucose concentrations (4.0 to 6.8 mmol/L) in a blood sample, published by Kamat Bagul (2014), were compared with the proposed model. The results showed a significant correlation with the experimental data, showing a maximum error of 5.2%. The proposed model might be useful in the design of noninvasive blood glucose monitoring systems.

model checking techniques are often used for the verification of software systems. Such techniques are accompanied with several advantages. However, state space explosion is one of the drawbacks to model checking. During recent years, several methods have been proposed based on evolutionary and meta-heuristic algorithms to solve this problem. In this paper, a hybrid approach is presented to cope with the SSE problem in model checking of systems modeled by GTS with an ample state space. Most of existence proposed methods that aim to verify systems are applied to detect deadlocks by graph transformations. The proposed approach is based on the fuzzy genetic algorithm and is designed to decline the safety property by verifying the reachability property and detecting deadlocks. In this solution, the state space of the system is searched by a fuzzy genetic algorithm to find the state in which the specified property is refuted/verified. To implement and evaluate the suggested approach, GROOVE is used as a powerful designing and model checking toolset in GTS. The experimental results indicate that the presented hybrid fuzzy method improves speed and performance by comparing other techniques

In central Senegal malaria incidences have declined from 2000 to 2010 in response to scaling-up of control measures and then remained stable, making elimination improbable. Additional control measures are needed to reduce transmission. We simulated chemoprophylaxis interventions targeting malaria hotspots, using a meta-population mathematical model based on differential equation framework and incorporating human mobility. The model was fitted to weekly malaria incidences from 45 villages. Three approaches for selecting intervention targets were compared: a) villages with malaria cases during the low transmission season of the previous year; b) villages with highest incidences during the high transmission season of the previous year; c) villages with highest connectivity with adjacent populations. Our modeling, considering human mobility, showed that the intervention strategies targeting hotspots would be effective in reducing malaria incidence in both targeted and untargeted areas. But whatever the intervention, pre-elimination stage (1-5 cases per 1,000 per year) would not be reached without simultaneously increasing vector control by more than 10%. Targeted interventions allow increasing overall malaria control and elimination potential.

Recently, the intensities of natural disasters have increased significantly owing to climate change and various other environmental factors, causing unprecedented damage. Measures must be established to reduce damage from large-scale natural disasters caused by the rapidly changing environment. The Japanese government published a hazard map manual in 2015 and obligates the creation of a hazard map as a measure to reduce high-scale storm surges. This manual presents a typhoon model based on a parametric model that is used to create a hazard map. The Myers model assuming concentric circles, which is primarily used in East Asia, is disadvantageous as it cannot consider geographic characteristics. Therefore, a new parametric model is necessary to calculate wind and pressure fields, which change according to geographic characteristics. To improve this limitation of the Myers model, we calculated the wind and pressure fields considering geographical effects by combining the Holland model, which can consider the size of a developing typhoon, and the Mascon model, which changes by geographic characteristics. To determine the gradient coefficient of the Holland model, the coefficient that changes every moment was calculated using grid point value data. The result indicated excellent reproducibility of storm surge height according to the geographic characteristics.

In this paper, drug treatment and vaccination are compared healthy and economically. In this comparison, in addition to comparing economic costs, it has paid attention to patients' recovery. To reach the goal, the prevalence of Covid-19 virus in New York is modeled by using the SEIR dynamic model. The SEIR dynamic model is used to model the period of epidemic diseases. Then, three disease control scenarios are evaluated economically. Treatment and vaccination are two important issues in controlling epidemic diseases. To control the disease, each of these two methods has economic costs and benefits. The main purpose of this paper is to compare the two methods of vaccination and treatment economically. Although the results of the study show that vaccination can be effective in preventing the epidemic of the disease than treatment, but due to the high cost and genetic mutation of the virus, vaccination is not the optimal method for both health and the economy in the long term.

We extend our high-resolution MRI-based Finite Element (FE) head model, previously presented and validated in [1–3], by considering the heterogeneities of the white matter structures captured through the use of Magnetic Resonance Elastography (MRE). This approach imparts more sophistication to our numerical model and yields results that more closely match experimental results. It is found that the peak pressure more closely matches the experiments as compared to the heterogeneous case. Qualitatively, we find differences in stress wave propagation near the corpus callosum and the corona radiata, which are stiffer on average than the global white matter. We are able to study the effects of these stiff structures on transient stress wave propagation within the cerebrum, something that cannot be done with a homogenized material model.

There is increasing evidence that the non-cooperative models describe household structures in developing countries more succinctly compared with the unitary model. Domestic violence against women, which is pervasive in Nigeria even though likely to be under-reported, will need to be understood within the framework of non-cooperative relationship between couples. In this study, we identify factors of domestic violence against women within couples who were currently in marital or cohabiting partnerships. Also, we investigate whether domestic violence influences the decision of women to terminate pregnancies. We use data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). Multivariate logistic regressions were used to model the predictors of domestic violence, and its influence on the decision to terminate pregnancies among married women. Of the 8,910 married women interviewed for domestic violence, 35.33% had ever experienced a form of domestic violence. We discover that women: with higher education, that is not poor, and resides in urban areas have 44%, 18% and 15% reductions in the odds of experience domestic violence respectively. On the other hand, women who are employed, own land, having husbands/partners that are employed in the agricultural sector, and drink alcohol have 1.16, 1.2, 2.07, and 2.8 times increased odds of experiencing domestic violence accordingly. Also, we uncover that currently married women experiencing domestic violence have 1.25 times increased odds of terminating pregnancies compared with their counterparts that are not experiencing domestic violence. Effectively, poverty, low levels of education, residing in rural areas, drinking habit of husbands/partners, employment, marital capital, and land ownership status of women are risk factors of domestic violence against married women in Nigeria but can be affected by policies and programmes. Importantly, public actions to contain domestic violence in order to improve maternal health should be implemented in the context of the dynamics of a non-cooperative relationship existing between married couples.

The crux of the paper is to present a detailed analysis of COVID-19 data which is available on global basis. This analysis is performed using some specific package of R software. It provides various insights from the data and help to understand the current status of this pandemic in India so that effective measures can be formulated by policymakers. These insights include global summary of this disease, growth rate of this pandemic and performance of SIR model for the given global data. The analysis has been presented in different tables and graphs to understand the outputs of the problem in a more detailed point of view.

The outburst of the CoVid-19 pandemic has raised several questions leading to a complex system in terms of modeling. Indeed, the modeling of the epidemic, at the level of a country, needs considering each of the different sources of contamination as well as the public health authorities' strategy, in a specific way. With this in mind, in the present paper, we develop a mathematical model of the CoVid-19 epidemic in Senegal. In the model, the population is subdivided into five compartments: susceptible, infected but asymptomatic, symptomatic, quarantined, and recovered immune people. In addition, due to its important impact on the propagation of the disease, we add one more variable: the number of infected objects. %\vspace{1mm} Therefore, the model corresponds to a system of six non-linear ordinary differential equations we submit to an analytical study to prove the relevancy of the model, simulate the evolution of the epidemic, and retrieve epidemiological parameters, namely the infection rate and the basic reproduction number, ${\cal R}_0$. Based on the senegalese territory CoVid-19 data, we simulate various scenarios as for the evolution of the epidemic in the country, in order to predict the peak and its magnitude with regard to the application of barrier measures. We also explore the option of collective immunity with special protection for vulnerable people. In doing so, non-available parameters are identified using some mathematical identification technics.

In attempting to predict the further course of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, mathematical models of different types are frequently employed and calibrated to reported case numbers. Among the major challenges in interpreting these data is the uncertainty about the amount of undetected infections, or conversely: the detection ratio. As a result, some models include assumptions about the percentage of detected cases among total infections while others completely neglect undetected cases. Here, we illustrate how model projections about case and fatality numbers vary significantly under varying assumptions on the detection ratio. Uncertainties in model predictions can be significantly reduced by representative testing, both for antibodies and active virus RNA, to uncover past and current infections that have gone undetected thus far.

A mathematical model, composed of two non-linear differential equations that describe the population dynamics of CD4 T cells in the human immune system, as well as viral HIV particles, is proposed. The invariance region is determined, classical equilibria stability analysis is performed using the basic reproduction number, and numerical simulations are carried out, in order to illustrate stability results. Later, the model is modified with a delay term, which describes the time that cells require for immunological activation. This generates a two-dimensional integro-differential system, which is transformed into a system with three ordinary differential equations, via auxiliary variable use. For the new model, equilibrium points are determined, their local stability is examined, and results are studied by way of numerical simulation.

Rough volatility models are popularized by \cite{gatheral2018volatility}, where they have shown that the empirical volatility in the financial market is extremely consistent with rough volatility. Fractional Riccati equation as a part of computation for the characteristic function of rough Heston model is not known in explicit form as of now and therefore, we must rely on numerical methods to obtain a solution. In this paper, we give a short introduction to option pricing theory and an overview of the current advancements on the rough Heston model.

This study evaluated the impact of climate change on water resources in a large semi-arid urban watershed located in Niamey Republic of Niger, West Africa. The watershed was modeled using the fully integrated surface-subsurface HydroGeoSpheremodel at a high spatial resolution. Historical (1980-2005) and projected (2020-2050) climate scenario derived from the outputs of three Regional Climate Models (RCM) under the RCP 4.5 scenario were statistically downscaled using the multiscale quantile mapping bias correction method. Results show that the bias correction method is optimum at daily and monthly scales, and increased RCM resolution does not improve the performance of the model. The three RCMs predict increases of up to 1.6% in annual rainfall and of 1.58°C for mean annual temperatures between the historical and projected periods. The durations of the Minimum Environmental Flow (MEF) conditions, required to supply drinking and agriculture water, were found to be sensitive to changes in runoff resulting from climate change. MEF occurrences and durations are likely to be greater for (2020-2030), and then they will be reduced for (2030-2050). All three RCMs consistently project a rise in groundwater table of more than 10 meters in topographically high zones where the groundwater table is deep and an increase of 2 meters in the shallow groundwater table.

Based on K-ε Standard Wall turbulence model (2-Equation) and Navier-Stokes (N-S) equations defined for incompressible fluids, fluid flow behaviour around hyperloop pods in an evacuated tube was simulated using ANSYS fluent solver assuming steady state and two dimensional conditions. In this research, to develop the case studies, using combination of different head and tail shape profile, four kind of hyperloop pods were developed with the aid of SolidWorks. These four pods have been investigated for their aerodynamic behaviour as four different case scenarios. The results of simulation depicts that an atmospheric pressure of 100 Pa with blockage ratio of 0.36 in tube provides the best possible aerodynamic behaviour for the designed hyperloop pod models. This research finds that overall aerodynamic behaviour of hyperloop pods can be varied by changing the head and tail shape profile of pods and a particular combination of head and tail shape profile can provide optimally best aerodynamic capabilities. Thus, this research paper provides a novel method of obtaining best aerodynamic capabilities in hyperloop pods by designing head profile optimally in combination with tail profile. This outcome will provide major contribution towards the development of hyperloop pods in future with better aerodynamic behaviour resulting in lesser electrical energy required to propel the hyperloop pods in evacuated tube.

Several particles are not observed directly, but only through their decay products. We consider the possibility that they might be fakeons, i.e. fake particles, which mediate interactions but are not asymptotic states. A crucial role to determine the true nature of a particle is played by the imaginary parts of the one-loop radiative corrections, which are affected in nontrivial ways by the presence of fakeons in the loop. The knowledge we have today is sufficient to prove that most non directly observed particles are true physical particles. However, in the case of the Higgs boson the possibility that it might be a fakeon remains open. The issue can be resolved by means of precision measurements in existing and future accelerators.

Classical non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) is a molecular pathway that detects, processes and ligates DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) throughout the cell cycle. Mutations in several NHEJ genes result in neurological abnormalities and immunodeficiency both in humans and mice. The NHEJ pathway is required for the V(D)J recombination in developing B and T lymphocytes, and for class switch recombination in mature B cells. Ku heterodimer formed by Ku70 and Ku80 recognizes DSBs and facilitates the recruitment of accessory factors (e.g., DNA-PKcs, Artemis, Paxx and Mri/Cyren) and downstream core factors subunits XLF, XRCC4 and Lig4. Accessory factors might be dispensable for the process depending on the genetic background and DNA lesion type. To determine the physiological role of Mri in DNA repair and development, we introduced frame-shift mutation in the Mri gene in mice. We then analyzed the development of Mri-deficient mice as well as wild type and immunodeficient controls. Mice lacking Mri possessed reduced levels of class switch recombination in B lymphocytes and slow proliferation of neuronal progenitors when compared to wild type littermates. Human cell lines lacking Mri were as sensitive to DSBs as WT controls. Overall, we concluded that Mri/Cyren is largely dispensable for DNA repair and mouse development.

Magnetic properties of soft magnetic composites are highly sensitive to the processing conditions. In this paper we focus on the possibility to model this effect using the Jiles-Atherton-Sablik theory. It is assumed that the effect of varying compaction pressure may be described by direct introduction of stress-dependent term in the model equations. The values of model parameters are kept constant. Verification of the proposed approach is carried out using measurement data from self-developed iron-based composite cores.

Peanut production contributes to food security in northern Ghana due to its ability to tolerate drought and survive on marginal lands. This notwithstanding, poor handling along the value chain favors aflatoxin contamination, a threat to human and animal life. Farmer-led improved storage practice, a potential solution to aflatoxin contamination, have been promoted in northern Ghana. However, there is limited evidence on the factors influencing the use of the improved storage system that may guide dissemination efforts. Using the Cragg’s two stage model, our results show that the probability and intensity of adopting the improved storage structure is principally and significantly influenced by economic active household members, storing of peanut in other places relative to the field, and location of farmer residence. In disseminating the improved peanut storage structure, the identified factors must be incorporated in the selection criteria to ensure maximum uptake and usage. Farmer training programs that incorporate both good agronomic practices and good storage practices must be intensified to reduce postharvest losses due to aflatoxin contamination. These strategies will help mitigate the harmful effect of aflatoxin, ensure economic sustainability, and enhance food security.

The Algiers Stock Exchange (ASE) is the only stock exchange in Algeria. It’s one of the newest and smallest emerging stock exchanges in the world. The focus of this paper is to model and forecast monthly returns of the ASE index (DZAIRINDEX) using The Box- Jenkins methodology. The period of this study is from Jun 2010 to July 2019. According to Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) estimator, the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,1) is chosen as the best model for forecasting the monthly DZAIRINDEX returns. Diagnostic tests confirm that the fitted model is adequate, where the residuals of this model are normally distributed with no autocorrelation and no heteroskedasticity. The forecast of the monthly DZAIRINDEX returns for one year ahead using this model shows a decreasing fluctuations trend. Based on different measures of forecast accuracy such as ME, MAE, RMSE, MASE, we show that the forecast accuracy of SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,1) is acceptable and this model performs much better than a naïve model. These results could be used by the financial communities in Algeria to deal with stock exchange risks and to improve their decisions.

In this study, based on our previous study, we examined the mathematical properties, especially the stability of the equilibrium for our proposed mathematical model. By means of the results of the stability in this study, we also used actual data representing transient booms and resurgent booms, and conducted parameter estimation for our proposed model using Bayesian inference. In addition, we conducted a model fitting to five actual data. By this study, we reconfirmed that we can express the resurgences or minute vibrations of actual data by means of our proposed model.

The effect of divergence of chute sidewalls with three different baffle block geometries namely USBR, trihedral and semicircular blocks, as well as the depth and dimensions of the scour hole downstream of the chute were studied using a physical model. For this purpose, 9 models of baffled chutes were designed and constructed with divergence ratios of 1.45, 1.75, and 2.45 and without divergence (with a divergence ratio of 1). Comparing the results on the effect of block geometry at different divergence ratios revealed that the use of blocks proposed in this study instead of standard USBR blocks reduced the mean and maximum scour hole by 50%. For a given block geometry, the mean depth, maximum depth, and length of scour hole were reduced by 75%, 58%, and 50%, respectively.

This paper proposes a novel deterministic methodology for estimating the optimal sampling frequency (SF) of water quality monitoring systems. The proposed methodology is based on employing two-dimensional contaminant transport simulation models to determine the minimum SF considering all the potential changes in the boundary conditions of a water body. A two-dimensional contaminant transport simulation model (RMA4) was implemented to estimate the distribution patterns of the total dissolved solids (TDS) within the Al-Hammar Marsh in the southern part of Iraq for 30 cases of potential boundary conditions. Using geographical information system (GIS) tools, a spatiotemporal analysis approach was applied to the results of the RMA4 model to determine the minimum SF of the monitoring stations with an accuracy level of detectable change in TDS concentration (ALC) of 5%, 10% and 15%. The proposed methodology specified a minimum and maximum SF for each monitoring station (MS) that ranged between 12 and 33 times per year, respectively. Additionally, increasing the ALC to 10% and 15% increase the minimum SF for some MSs by approximately 18% and 21%, respectively. However, the proposed methodology includes all the potential values and cases of boundary conditions, which increases the certainty of monitoring the system and the efficiency of the SF schedule. Moreover, the proposed methodology can be effectively applied to all types of surface water resources.

In this paper, we propose a new mathematical model based on the association between susceptible and recovered individual, where the association between susceptible and recovered individual is disturbed by white noise. This model is based on demographic changes and is used for long term behavior. We study the stability of equilibria of the deterministic model and prove the conditions for the extinction of diseases. Then, we investigate and obtain the critical condition of the stochastic epidemic model for the extinction and the permanence in mean of the disease with the white noise. To verify our results, we present some numerical simulations for real data related to disease.

This article attempts to formulate a mathematical model for a potential explanation regarding the unavoidable impact of a rigid body's peculiar shape on the seamless flow over it. The solid body completely immersed in a Newtonian fluid and respectively has a relative open circuit flow on it will typically experience various observable phenomena like flow separation, flow transition, down-wash, stalling at the higher angle of attack, stalling velocity and how cambered airfoil can typically generate lift at a zero incidence angle. This article respectively represents an understanding of the laminar flow over a rigid body's external surface with due respect to its distinctive shape and size. This working paper formulates a more realistic and simplified mathematical model for open circuit laminar flow over a body, based on the historical data of aerodynamics and theoretical mechanics. This is intended to properly estimate forces on the continuous surface of the body in a laminar flow, to properly explain, understand and predict mentioned phenomena. Most of all the mechanism of streamline formation and its deformation with due regards to flow, shape and size of the body in an open-circuit laminar are formulated mathematically to enhance better design theory which can reduce experimentation while designing a streamlined body.

We present a brief history of the construction of models of the universe, followed by calculations of quantitative characteristics of basic geometric and kinematic properties of the Standard Cosmological Model ($\Lambda$CDM). Using the Friedmann equations of uniform space, we derive equations characterizing a $\Lambda$CDM model that describes a universe corresponding to current observational data. The equations take into account the effects of radiation and ultra-relativistic neutrinos. It is shown that the universe at very early and late stages can be described to sufficient accuracy by simple formulas. Certain important moments of cosmic evolution are determined: the times when densities of the gravitational components of the universe become equal, when they contribute equally to the gravitational force, when the accelerating expansion of space begins, and several others. The dependences of different distances on redshift and the scale factor of space are derived. The distance to the sphere that expands with the speed of light (the Hubble distance), and its current and future acceleration, are found. Concepts of a horizon, second inflation, and second horizon are discussed. We consider the remote future of the universe and the opportunity, in principle, of connection with extraterrestrial civilizations.

Timely processing of observations from hyper-spectral imagers, such as SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager), largely depends on fast radiative transfer calculations. This paper mostly concerns the development and implementation of a new forward model for SEVIRI to be applied to real time processing of infrared radiances for the physical retrieval of surface temperature and emissivity. The new radiative transfer model improves computational time by a factor of ≈ 7 compared to the previous versions and makes it possible to process SEVIRI data at nearly real time. The new forward model has been applied for the simultaneous retrieval of surface temperature and emissivity in three infrared channels (8.7, 10.8, 12 μm). The inverse scheme relies on a Kalman filter approach, which allows us to exploit a sequential processing of SEVIRI observations. Based on the new forward model, the paper also presents a validation retrieval performed with in situ observations acquired during a field experiment carried out in 2017 at Gobabeb (Namib desert) validation station. Furthermore, a comparison with IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer) emissivity retrievals has been performed as well. It has been found that the retrieved emissivities are in good agreement with each other and with in situ observations, i.e. average differences are generally well below 0.01.

This paper analyses the evolution of the internal damage in two types of steel that show different fracture behaviours, with one of them being the initial material used for manufacturing prestressing steel wires, which shows a flat fracture surface perpendicular to the loading direction, and the other one being a standard steel used in reinforced concrete structures, which shows the typical cup-cone surface. 3mm-diameter cylindrical specimens are tested with a tensile test carried out in several loading stages and, after each of them, unloaded and analysed with X-ray tomography, which allows detection of internal damage throughout the tensile test. In the steel used for reinforcement, damage is developed progressively in the whole specimen, as predicted by Gurson-type models, while in the steel used for manufacturing prestressing steel-wire damage is developed only in the very last part of the test. In addition to the experimental study, a numerical analysis is carried out by means of the finite element method by using a Gurson model to reproduce the material behaviour.

Purpose: To investigate the extent of anterior chamber angle circumference needed to maintain a physiological outflow facility (C). Methods: Twenty anterior segments of porcine eyes were assigned to 5 groups, each with a different degree of cyanoacrylate-mediated angle closure: 90° (n = 4), 180° (n = 4), 270° (n = 4), 360° (n = 4) and four unoccluded control eyes. The outflow facility was measured at baseline, 3, 12, 24, and 36 hours after angle closure. Outflow patterns were evaluated with canalograms and the histomorphology was compared. Results: Baseline outflow facilities of the five groups were similar (F = 0.922, P = 0.477). Complete, circumferential occlusion over 360° induced a significant decrease in facility from baseline at all time-points (P ≤ 0.023 at 3, 12, 24 and 36 hours). However, no difference from baseline was found in any of the partially-occluded (0–270°) groups (F ≥ 0.067, P ≥ 0.296 at 3, 12, 24 and 36 hours). The canalograms confirmed the extent of occlusion with flow through the unblocked regions. Histology revealed no adverse effects of blockage on the TM or aqueous plexus in the unoccluded angle portions. The unoccluded TM appeared normal. Conclusion: Cyanoacrylate-mediated angle occlusion created a reproducible angle closure model. 90° of unoccluded anterior chamber angle circumference was sufficient to maintain physiological outflow. This model may help understand how outflow can be regulated in healthy, nonglaucomatous TM.

Objective: This paper aims to build an Effort Estimation Model for design, coding and testing Web Applications Based Fuzzy and Practical Models, which will help in optimizing the efforts in software development. Methods/Analysis: Soft computing approach is adopted and applied in the effort estimation and then compared with practical efforts in the development process with interpreting the historical data available for the existing functionalities. Findings: The effort estimation model presented in this paper focuses on the first level estimates published by Project Managers and the second level estimates presented by Project Leaders or Developers for any new requirement or enhancement for a web application built on 3-tier architecture using Microsoft technologies. The model considers the classification of each task as either Low or Medium or High complexity. These tasks pertain to the lowest level parts in bottom-up estimation. Efforts are estimated for designing, coding and unit testing of these tasks and the efforts are summed up to get the effort estimation for the higher level which is a feature to be implemented. Novelty/Improvement: The paper also discusses about the application of the effort estimation model by taking a new requirement as a case study. The first level estimates calculated using the effort estimation model has a variance of about 25% when compared with the actual effort. This variance is very much acceptable considering the fact that the first level estimates can be tolerable up to 35%. The proposed effort estimation tool would help the project managers to efficiently control the project, manage the resources effectively, and improve the software development process and also trade off analyses among schedule, performance, quality and functionality. Fuzzy logic is used to verify the claims made in efforts estimation. It is proposed a new relation between the number of data and efforts value membership for actual data. And converts it into crisp value in the range [0…1] which helps to classify the complexity of the task and subtask in the design, coding and testing phases.

Some of the recent large-scale national projects in South Korea are delayed or suspended due to belated responses to risk occurring on site. Currently, the Far East District (FED) project is being implemented to relocate the US Army bases from Yongsan to Pyeongtaek. Because of lack of experience and understanding about the characteristics of such a project, the deadline of taking over to the US Army Korea has been missed. This study identifies problems of each participant in the Yongsan Relocation Plan (YRP) of the US Army Korea with respect to construction project management and establishes a risk management strategy reflecting characteristics of FED project. To derive significant risk factors influencing YRP, various field data like weekly and monthly reports and other reports on construction condition are analyzed, and experts’ advices are collected and a survey is conducted. Mediators and latent variables are ultimately obtained. Furthermore, a structural equation model is used to both analyze and evaluate complex causal relations among many variables of YRP. The impact of risk factors on the schedule, quality and cost of the project is analyzed. In particular, the case of Site A is examined to see how the project is affected by those risk factors.

The creation of computer models is often driven by the need to make predictions in regions where there is no data (i.e. extrapolations). This makes validation challenging as it is difficult to ensure that a model will be suitable when it is applied in a region where there are no observations of the system of interest. The current paper proposes a method that can reveal flaws in a model which may be difficult to identify using traditional approaches for model calibration and validation. The method specifically targets the situation where one is attempting to model a dynamical system that is believed to possess time-invariant calibration parameters. The proposed approach allows these parameters to vary with time, even though it is believed that they are time-invariant. The of such an analysis is to identify key discrepancies - indications that a model has inherent flaws and, as a result, should not be used to influence decisions in regions where there is no data. The proposed method isn't necessarily a predictor of extrapolation performance, rather, it is a stringent test that, the authors believe, should be applied before extrapolation is attempted. The approach could therefore form a useful part of wider validation frameworks in the future.

Fusarium graminearum causes head blight in wheat and corn, and produces chemicals harmful for humans and other animals. It is important to understand how it grows in order to prevent outbreaks. There are 3 well-known growth models for microorganisms and they seem applicable to molds: linear, Gompertz and Baranyi. This study aimed to see which could better represent F. graminearum growth. Three replicates were grown in yeast extract agar (YEA) for 20 days. The Feret’s radius was measured in ImageJ software, and then related to the models. Linear model was the most closely correlated to the actual growth. Thus, considering that it was the most representative of the reality and it is easier to use, it seems to be the best logical choice for F. graminearum growth studies.

The coal mine underground reservoir is an appropriate solution between coal mining and groundwater resource protection and utilization. By calculating the storage capacity of a groundwater reservoir, the storage coefficient has been proved to be always an empirical value. Based on the mathematical derivation of the vertical fracture area ratio and the horizontal fracture area rate of the collapse zone and the fissure zone in the goaf area of the coal seam, the mathematical models of tem are derived, and the model for calculating the water storage coefficient is derived. The water storage coefficient derived from the theoretical model had more basis and more advanced than the traditional empirical value. By using this method, the practical calculation of No.1 underground reservoir of the DaLliuta Coalmine in Shenhua Shendong, has got a perfect matching with the actual groundwater storage capacity.

In this study, the model proposed by Yang et al. to generalize the stress–strain model for unconfined concrete with consideration of the size effect is expanded. Sim et al.’s compressive strength model that is based on the function of specimen width and aspect ratio was used for the maximum stress. In addition, a strain at the maximum stress was formulated as a function of compressive strength by considering the size effect using the regression analysis of datasets compiled from a wide variety of specimens. The descending branch after the peak stress was formulated with consideration of less dissipated area of fracture energy with the increase in specimen width and aspect ratio in the compression damage zone (CDZ) model. The key parameter for the slope of the descending branch was formulated as a function of specimen width and aspect ratio, concrete density, and compressive strength of concrete considering the size effect. Consequently, a rational stress–strain model for unconfined concrete was proposed. This model explains the trends of the peak stress and strain at the peak stress to decrease and the slope of the descending branch to increase, as the specimen width and aspect ratio increase. The proposed model agrees well with the test results, irrespective of the compressive strength of concrete, concrete type, specimen width and aspect ratio. In particular, the proposed model for the stress–strain curve rationally considered the effect of decreasing peak stress and increasing the descending branch slope, with the increase in specimen width and aspect ratio.

As climate is not only a valuable tourism resource but also a factor influencing travel experience, estimating climate change can provide implications to sustainable development of the tourism industry. This study develops Climate Volatility Index (CVI) using GARCH model and estimates the relationship between CVI and Japanese tourism demand for Korea using a tourism demand model, based on data from January 2000 to December 2013. Time lag is applied based on a decision making process regarding travel destinations. The result shows that an increase in volatility of climate change leads to a decrease in tourism demand.

Abstract: Background and objective: Propofol is an anesthetic agent that is frequently used in anesthesia induction, maintenance and sedation. Propofol has severe side effects such as hypotension, bradycardia and respiratory depression. Although propofol is commonly used, there is no known antidote for its toxic effects. An approach to prevent toxic effects of propofol would be beneficial. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of intravenous lipid emulsion (ILE) therapy in the prevention of depressive effects of propofol on cardiovascular and respiratory systems. Materials and methods: Twenty-eight Sprague-Dawley adult rats were randomly divided into 4 groups. The saline-administered group was determined as the Control group. The second group was administered propofol (PP group); the third group was administered ILE (ILE group), and the fourth was administered propofol with ILE therapy (ILE+PP group). Systolic blood pressure (SBP), Diastolic blood pressure (DBP), Mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), Respiratory rate (RR), Heart rate (HR) and mortality were recorded at 10 points during 60 minutes. A repeated measures linear mixed-effect model with unstructured covariance was used to compare the groups. Results: In the PP group, SBP, DBP, MAP, RR and HR levels were declining steadily; all rats in this group died after 60 minutes. In the ILE+PP group, after a while, the decreased SBP, DBP, MAP, RR and HR levels increased SBP, DBP, MAP, RR and HR levels of the Propofol group were found to be significantly lower than those of the other groups (p<0.01). The mortality rate was 100% (surviving period, 60 min) for the PP group, whereas 0% for the ILE, ILE+PP and Control groups. Conclusion: Our results suggest that undesirable side effects that can be seen after propofol application such as hypotension, bradycardia and respiratory depression might be prevented by using ILE therapy.

A diagnostic method is presented for analysing the large-scale behaviour of the Met Office Unified Model, which is a comprehensive atmospheric model used for weather and climate prediction. Outside the boundary layer, on scales larger than the radius of deformation, semigeostrophic theory will give an accurate approximation to the model evolution. In particular, the ageostrophic circulation required to maintain geostrophic and hydrostatic balance against prescribed forcing and a rate of change of the geostrophic pressure can be calculated. In the tropics the balance condition degenerates to the weak temperature gradient approximation. Within the boundary layer the semigeostriptic approximation has to be used because friction and rotation are equally important. Assuming the calculated pressure tendency and ageotriptic circulation match the observed model behaviour, the influence of the large-scale state and the nature of the forcing on the model response can be deduced in a straightforward way. This process is illustrated by comparing predictions of the ageotriptic circulation from the theory and the model. It is then used to show that the effects of latent heat release can be included by modifying the static stability, and to show the effect of an idealised tropical heat source on the subtropical jet. Finally the response of the ageotriptic flow to boundary layer heating in the tropics is demonstrated. These illustrations show that the model behaviour on large scales conforms with theoretical expectations, so that the results of the diagnostic can be used to aid the development of further improvements to the model.

PEM fuel cell is a technology successfully used in the production of energy from hydrogen, allowing the use of hydrogen as an energy vector. It is scalable for stationary and mobile applications. However, the technology demands more research. An important research topic is fault diagnosis and condition monitoring to improve the life and the efficiency and to reduce the operation costs of PEMFC devices. Consequently, there is a need of physical models that let deep analysis. These models must be accurate enough to represent the PEMFC behavior and to allow the identification of different internal signals of a PEM fuel cell. This work presents a PEM fuel cell model that uses the output temperature in a closed loop, so it can represent the thermal and the electrical behavior. The model is used to represent a NEXA Ballard 1.2 kW; therefore it is necessary to fit the coefficients to represent the real behavior. Five optimization algorithms were tested to fit the model, three of them were taken from literature and two were proposed. Finally, the model with the parameters identified was validated with real.

The non-existence of a land ownership database in most of the developing countries moves the inhabitants to the occupation of public lands. Some of this situation are the origin to areas of informal housing, commerce and agriculture and in the end into new ​​informal settlements. Informal settlements become a serious problem in developing countries. The most common typology of informal settlements is that they are the population settled in public lands without any infrastructures and against the administrator's will. Thought this action the result in an uncontrolled land occupation process that promotes new informal areas without any proper built-up utilities, located in risk areas on the territory, barely ensuring the minimum requirements for a heaty living of the population and in various cases incentives to an informal economy. The process of build a cadastral map in informal settlement areas is a fundamental base to support the future transformation of illegal areas and to regulate the occupation of new subdivision planning and into the creation of new expansion areas. In this paper, it is presented a methodology developed to be applied to support a new register of land and to management. The transformation of informal settlement areas. The model to register the land tenure has been associated with allows the process application to multiple typology of informal settlements. The model to register land tenure has developed on a series of qualitative and quantitative data that determine the identification and classification of the buildings and its physical and functional description. The model was developed using Geographic Information System and with an initial survey of existing land titles of possession and public proposals to develop new expansion areas. A case study of the method is presented, where the land management model was implemented - Chã da Caldeiras in Ilha do Fogo an informal settlement in Cape Verde. The results are a great acceptance of the proposal by the population and local authorities and the starting of the implementation phase.

This research aimed to develop a causal relationship model of the behavior of a Thai rural community in disposing of used batteries. The variables studied were 1) the household latent variable (three observable variables); 2) the social latent variable (six observable variables); 3) the intention latent variable (three observable variable); and 4) the behavior latent variable (three observable variables). Six hundred households were surveyed using a questionnaire. The questionnaire developed was validated by seven experts and its reliability was established by testing it with a sample group. Results showed that the modified model do present a good overall level of fit. The House and social positively and directly influenced intention. Intention positively and directly influenced behavior. The theoretical and practical implications relating specifically to intention to the behavior in disposing of used dry batteries by households are emphasized. The modified model indicated eighty-nine percent of the variance in the behavior in disposing of used dry batteries by households was explained by the intention factors. The most direct effect on behavior was the intention factors with 0.89 of effect size. The factors with indirect effects on behavior were household and social factors with an effect size of 0.52 and 0.35.

Migrations are much more important than currently recognised, for explaining important patterns observed in the European archaeology record – according to this archaeology led model. At a high level, they explain the introduction of different farming, monument building, the spread of metalworking and patterns of trade and exchange. This paper presents an archaeogenetic model based on a strategic review of the Neolithic and Chalcolithic archaeology of Europe, alongside a review of recently published ancient DNA data. The model is archaeology led. It takes archaeology themes and proposes migratory events to explain them. Ancient DNA data and further archaeology evidence is then used to test these proposed migrations- to reject or refine them. The model introduces a new and more strategic way of looking at archaeological cultures - that updates early 20th century approaches to studying archaeology cultures, and integrates with the detailed ‘post processual’ studies of the late 20th Century. The model consists of seven maps – each showing multiple migration events – with key evidence to support each migration map. It proposes a new category of a ‘Black Sea’ related population that makes a major genetic contribution to the Middle Neolithic of Europe. The proposed migrations provide an explanation for the observed patterns of archaeology, for example: • multiple Neolithic migrations that introduced, farming and metalworking into Europe; • a major ‘Black Sea’ related ‘Middle Neolithic’ migration that carried advanced knowledge of astronomy that can be recognised in a variety of types of monument from the Neolithic through to Bronze Age Europe; and, • migrations of related cultures (‘supercultures’) that explain patterns of trade and exchange in Bronze Age western Europe. The model also provides ancient DNA and archaeology based support for the key aspects of Childe’s ‘dawn of civilisation’ in Europe and Egypt and Gimbutas’ ‘Old Europe’ and “three waves of migration from the Steppe”.

This paper proposes a novel model for a PV cell with parameters variance dependency on temperature and irradiance included. The model relies on commercial available data, calculates the cell parameters for standard conditions and then extrapolates them for the whole operating range. An up-to-date review of the PV modeling is also included with series and parallel parasitic resistance values and dependencies discussed. The parameters variance is analyzed and included in the proposed PV model, where the self-heating phenomenon is also considered. Each parameter variance is compared to the results from different authors. The model includes only standard components and can be run on any SPICE-based simulator. Unlike other approaches that consider the internal temperature as a parameter, our proposal relies on air temperature as an input and computes the actual internal temperature accordingly. Finally, the model is validated via experiments and comparisons to similar approaches are provided.

As a high fatal disease, fat embolism syndrome is complication, which brought great pain to patient and their family served as a serious social burden. The mechanism of FES remains unclear. Autophagy controls the cell survival and homeostasis by removing the mis-folded proteins and damaged organelles as well as intracellular pathogens through a lysosomal degradation pathway. Increasing research documented that autophagy was wildly involved in variety of human diseases and had huge therapeutic potential. In our study, we first established the rat model of FES with the liquid fat by tail vein injection. We observed the up-regulated MPO expression and activity, increased Wet-to-Dry (W/D) lung weight, promoted quantity of fat granules, and the dominant disorder in the lung rat model of FES, compared to the control group. These observations demonstrated that we successfully build the rat model of FES. Then, we sought to dissect the role of the autophagy in the rat model of FES. The western blots analysis showed that the autophagy was inhibited in the rat model of FES constructed with liquid fat. Furthermore, Rapamycin could restore the repression of autophagy in rat model of FES. These investigations illustrated that autophagy was involved in FES. In addition, our experiments showed that Rapamycin could alleviate the symptoms of FES. Taken together, our study demonstrated the participation of autophagy in FES and further, as a potential therapeutic target, the modulation of autophagy could affect the symptom of rat model of FES.

Hydro-climatic projections in West Africa are attributed with high uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. This study assesses the influence of the parameter sensitivities and uncertainties of three rainfall runoff models on simulated discharge in current and future times using meteorological data from 8 Global Climate Models. The IHACRES Catchment Moisture Deficit (IHACRES-CMD) model, the GR4J and the Sacramento model were chosen for this study. During model evaluation, 10,000 parameter sets have been generated for each model and used in a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Out of the three models, IHACRES-CMD recorded the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.92 and 0.86 for the calibration (1997-2003) and the validation (2004-2010) period respectively. The Sacramento model was able to adequately predict low flow patterns on the catchment while the GR4J and IHACRES-CMD over and under estimate low flow respectively. The use of multiple hydrological models to reduce uncertainties caused by model approaches is recommended along with other methods of sustainable river basin managements.

A comprehensive kinetic model of the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS) is developed in a fixed bed reactor under operating conditions (temperature, 230–235°C, pressure, 20–25 bar, gas hourly space velocity, 4000–5000 cm³(STP)/h/g_catalyst ,H₂/CO feed molar ratio, 2.1) over a Co based catalyst. Reaction rate equations based on Eley-Rideal (ER) type model for initiation step and Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson (LHHW) type model for propagation and termination steps of the FTS reactions have been considered and the readsorption of olefins were taken into account. The model that was reported in the literature was modified in order to explain many significant deviations from the ASF distribution. Optimum parameters have been obtained by Genetic Algorithms (GA). The calculated activation energies to produce n-paraffins and 1-olefins were in the range of 82.24 to 90.68 kJ/mol and 100.66 to 105.24 kJ/mol, respectively. The hydrocarbon distribution in FTS reactions was satisfactorily predicted particularly for paraffins.

The Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and the Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfied (PPD) indices are used to assess the indoor environment in terms of human thermal comfort-discomfort. In this study, an experimental combined objective and subjective investigation of thermal comfort perception has been performed in students between 16-18 years old, in a non-air-conditioned school building. The objective approach included instrumentation measurements and data processing according to ISO 7730, whereas, the subjective one was based on answers collection following ISO 10551. The study is mainly devoted to the verification of Fanger’s approach in a building, in free running conditions, under a mild (moderate) climate.The comparison between instrumentation data and questionnaire results presented an underestimation of the mean vote, predicting a cooler sensation than the actual one.

The consumption of rice, which recently increases globally, leads to requirement for planning sustainable water management for paddy cultivation. In this research, SWAT model was modified to evaluate sustainability of paddy cultivation. Modifications to simulate paddy cultivation are 1) to equip with a new water balance model of impounded fields, 2) to add an irrigation management option for paddy fields, which is characterized by flood irrigation managed by farmers on a daily basis, 3) to consider puddling operation that influences water quality and infiltration rate of soil. The enhanced model, named SWAT-PADDY, was applied to an agricultural watershed in Japan as a case study. The modified model succeeded in representing paddy cultivation in the study area. However, SWAT-PADDY underestimated base flow in irrigation period. The cause of this is inferred that the modified model doesn’t represent return flow of excess withdrawal of river water. In conclusion, addition of the models of impoundment and management practices in paddy fields to SWAT improved field scale simulation of water balance and irrigation in paddy fields. However, further improvement of the model on irrigation return flow process is needed to better predict hydrology of watersheds dominated by paddy irrigation.

Distributed/semi-distributed models are considered to be sensitive to the spatial resolution of the data input. In this paper, we take a small catchment in high urbanized Yangtze River Delta, Qinhuai catchment as study area, to analyze the impact of spatial resolution of precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration (PET) on the long-term runoff and flood runoff process. The data source includes the TRMM precipitation data, FEWS download PET data, and the interpolated metrological station data. GIS/RS technique was used to collect and pre-process the geographical, precipitation and PET series, which were then served as the input of CREST (Coupled Routing and Excess Storage) model to simulate the runoff process. The results clearly showed that, the CREST model is applicable to the Qinhuai catchment; the spatial resolution of precipitation had strong influence on the modelled runoff results and the metrological precipitation data cannot be substituted by the TRMM data in small catchment; the CREST model was not sensitive to the spatial resolution of the PET data, while the estimation fourmula of the PET data was correlated with the model quality. This paper focused on the small urbanized catchment, suggesting the influential explanatory variables for the model performance, and providing reliable reference for the study in similar area.

In this work model of mirror elements equilibrium of the micromechanical components is developed, the behavior analysis of the mirror element of micromechanical mirrors in case changing of control voltages of electrostatic actuators is carried out, an expression for determining the maximum value of deflection voltage at which the snap-down effect will take the following form is obtained in case of the influence of the coefficient of the electrostatic rigidity of electrostatic actuators. The developed equilibrium model of mirror elements and the obtained results of modeling can be used at design of micromechanical mirrors with internal suspensions.

The main contribution of this paper is to develop a graphical tool to evaluate the suitability of a candidate parametric model to fit a data set. The practical motivation is to check the adequacy of the so called SAINT model proposed in Jarner and Kryger (2011). This model has been implemented in practice by an important European pension fund concerned with setting annuity reserves for all current or former employees of Denmark. So, one particular relevant question is whether this mortality model is actually fitting old-age. Our graphical test can be described as follows. First we transform the data by means of the parametric model which is being evaluated. Should the model be correct, the transformed data will be in accordance with an Exponential distribution with rate 1. Then we construct a family of local linear hazard estimates based on the data on the transformed scale. Finally we use the statistical tool SiZer to assess the goodness-of-fit of the Exponential distribution to the data on the transformed scale. If the model is correct the SiZer map should not reveal any significant feature in the family of kernel estimates. Our method allow us to establish a diagnostic regarding the validity of the SAINT model when describing mortality patterns in four different countries.

Natural gas hydrate, also known as combustible ice and mainly composed of methane, it is identified as the potential clean energy in the 21th century. Due to its large reserves, gas hydrate can ease problems caused by energy resource shortage and has gained attention around the world. In this paper, we focus on the exploration and development of gas hydrate as well as discussing its status and future development trend in China and abroad, then we analyze its opportunities and challenges in China from four aspects: resource, technology, economy and police with five forces model and PEST method. The results show, China has abundance gas hydrate resource; however the backward technologies and inadequate investment has seriously hindered the future development of gas hydrate, so China should establish relevant cooperation framework and intuitional arrangement to attract more investment as well as breaking through technical difficulties to make gas hydrate commercialization as soon as possible.

The recent demand for reducing pollutant and CO2 emissions from internal combustion engines has created an urgent need for the development of ultra-lean burn engines that ensure combus-tion stability and reducing knocking tendency. One of the most promising methods is the Pre-chamber Spark Ignition (PCSI) system, where a jet of high-energy reactive gases, produced by pilot combustion in a pre-chamber, ignites the main combustion event in the cylinder. Given the intricate phenomena inherent to PCSI systems, conducting 3D CFD studies is imperative for a comprehensive analysis and optimal design. Furthermore, the detailed CFD model, combined with the calibrated 0-D/1-D model, is anticipated to yield a significant amount of new data that would be difficult to obtain through experimental approaches, making it essential for advancing our understanding and optimization of these systems. However, recently published papers re-port that some state-of-the-art models developed for conventional SI operation may not be pre-dictive under the challenging conditions of TJI systems, particularly under lean conditions. This review elucidates the reasons behind the widespread adoption of CFD in the optimal design of PCSI engines. It presents significant examples and delves into the potential and challenges of employing CFD not just as a predictive tool but also as a design instrument for enhancing PCSI engine performance.

Here we mathematically model black holes and the early universe following dynamics similar to RLC electrical models, focusing on their similarities at the singularity. We use this mathematically modelling to hypothesize the evolution of an expanding universe as the result of a black hole collapse followed by its evaporation. Or model consists of several steps defined by: (1) the formation of a black hole following general relativity equations; (2) growth of the black hole modelled as a resistance-capacitance-like electrical circuit; (3) expansion of space-time following the disintegration of the black hole, modelled by RLC-like dynamics. In updating this article, version 2, we will expand by presenting three additional examples related to the theory of the generalization Boltzmann's constant in curved space-time and the theory of general and especial relativity. We will calculate the critical mass to produce a black hole in the LHC, the existence of a high temperature Bose-Einstein condensate and finally we will demonstrate the existence of a tangential force to the repulsion force in the disintegration of subatomic particles. In the update of this article, version 3, we will expand to develop two examples. First, we will present the relationship between M-theory, extra dimensions with the theory of the generalization of Boltzmann's constant in curved space-time. Secondly, we will propose the idea of ​​updating the Lambda-CDM model, considering the primordial gravitational waves to correctly describe the evolution of the universe.

The use of logistic regression models in data analysis and machine learning has expanded in recent years and has become the primary preference of researchers in risk assessment studies across a wide range of scientific fields. From the assessment of credit risk in financial institutions to the estimation of risk factors for traffic accidents or the identification of etiological factors for chronic diseases. All logistic models are natural extensions of the simple binary model, and their interpretation is based on it. Using the data of a cross-sectional study on the risk factors of traffic collisions, the two main extended models of logistic techniques, multinomial and ordinal logistic regression, are presented in the article in detail. Emphasis is placed on the use of ordinal regression since the outcome variable of the collision data is defined as ordinal measurement reflecting a latent continuous scale.

There has been a growing interest in incorporating psychological and neuroscientific knowledge about the development of cognitive functions in educational policies and academic practices. In this paper, we argue that the current knowledge about the interactions between these functions and their neurodevelopmental characteristics should also be considered in order to develop practices that could be better suited to pupils depending on their age. To facilitate this, we review current neuroscientific knowledge on the competitive interactions between two neural circuitry underlying distinct learning functions, their developmental trajectories and how they are linked to other functions such as cognitive control. The incorporation of this knowledge in education could help improve academic outcomes.

The move to a low carbon economy is very important for enhancing international competitiveness. The eco-innovation is the critical factor of the green paradigm. This study is designed to investigate deeply the determinants of eco-innovation of manufacturing firms in Korea by suggesting anticipated regulations, self-regulations, and industry-specific characteristics as external factors and open information sources as internal factors. The data used in the analysis is 1946 sample firms from Korean Innovation Survey 2010 based on the Oslo Manual. Using the multi-variate probit analysis and the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression analysis, we have found out that the anticipated regulations and self-regulations have significant influences both on eco-process innovation and eco-product innovation, while industrial characteristics have no effects. The empirical results also show that the breadth of information sources has a positive effect on businesses in implementing eco-innovations. Our findings show that the Korean government should provide a good platform where firms can better understand the future trends of environmental policies, particularly policies on anticipated and self-regulations. At the same time, Korean firms should establish a voluntary system to control environmental activities so that they can improve eco-innovations through integrating external information.

Into the frame of the French TANDEM project (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and the English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through numerical Modelling) Principia has been working on the development and qualification of two in-house CFD software’s: the 2D EOLE-SV (Saint Venant) model for simulation of large scale tsunami propagation from the source up to coastal scale and the 3D EOLE-NS (Navier-Stokes) model dedicated to tsunami coastal impact modelling. This paper presents a large range of test cases carried out into the frame of the project and dedicated to the validation of numerical codes in various tsunami wave conditions. The main aspects of phenomena such as wave generation, propagation and coastal impact are investigated on academic situations. A real case simulation is concerned as well, the devastating 2011 Tohoku event which is compared with in-situ data.

Major marine construction projects, resulting in the release of sediments, are subject to environmental assessment and other regulatory approval processes. An important tool used for this is the development of specialized numerical methods for these marine activities. An integrated set of numerical methods addresses four distinct topics: the near-field release and mixing of suspended sediments into the water column (i.e. the initial dilution zone); the transport of the suspended sediments under the influence of complex ocean currents in the far-field; the settling of the transported suspended sediments onto the seabed; and the potential for resuspension of the deposited sediments due to sporadic occurrences of unusually large near-bottom currents. A review of projects subjected to environmental assessment in the coastal waters of British Columbia from the year 2006 to 2017, is presented to illustrate the numerical models being used and their ongoing development. Improvements include higher resolution model grids to better represent the near-field, the depiction of particle size dependent vertical settling rates and the computation of resuspension of initially deposited sediments, especially in relation to temporary subsea piles of sediments arising from trenching for marine pipelines. The ongoing challenges for this numerical modeling application area are also identified.

A predictive approach to the phase behavior of four-component poly-mer-water-surfactant-electrolyte systems is formulated, by viewing the four-component system as a binary polymer-pseudosolvent system, with the pseudosolvent representing water, surfactant, and the electrolyte. The phase stability of this binary system is examined using the framework of the lattice fluid model of Sanchez and Lacombe. In the lattice fluid model, a pure component is represented by three equation of state parameters, the hard-core volume of a lattice site ( ), the number of lattice sites occupied by the component (r) and its characteristic energy ( ). We in-troduce the extra thermodynamic postulate that r and for the pseudosolvent are the same as for water and all surfactant-electrolyte composition dependent characteristics of the pseudosolvent can be represented solely through its characteristic energy parameter. The key implication of the postulate is that the phase behavior of polymer-pseudosolvent systems will be identical for all pseudosolvents with equal values of the characteristic energy, despite their varying real compo-sitions. Based on the pseudosolvent model, illustrative phase diagrams have been computed for several four-component systems containing alkyl sulfonate/sulfate surfactants, electrolytes and anionic or nonionic polymers. The pseudosolvent model is shown to describe all important trends in experimentally observed phase behavior, pertaining to polymer and surfactant molecular characteristics. Most importantly, the pseudosolvent model allows one to construct a priori phase diagrams for any polymer-surfactant-electrolyte system, knowing just one experimental com-position data for a system at the phase boundary, using available thermodynamic data on sur-factants and electrolytes and without requiring any information on the polymer.

This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the applicability and performance of two prominent growth models, namely the Verhulst model and the Montroll model, in the context of modeling tumor cell growth dynamics. Leveraging the power of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), we aim to assess and compare the predictive capabilities of these models against experimental data obtained from the growth patterns of tumor cells. We employ a dataset comprising detailed measurements of tumor cell growth to train and evaluate the Verhulst and Montroll models. By integrating PINNs, we not only account for experimental noise but also embed physical insights into the learning process, enabling the models to capture the underlying mechanisms governing tumor cell growth. Our findings reveal the strengths and limitations of each growth model in accurately representing tumor cell proliferation dynamics. Furthermore, the study sheds light on the impact of incorporating physics-informed constraints on the model predictions. The insights gained from this comparative analysis contribute to advancing our understanding of growth models and their applications in predicting complex biological phenomena, particularly in the realm of tumor cell proliferation.

The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) system comprises multiple complex and nonlinear interactions related to society, economy, water resources and the water environment. A full understanding of its internal mechanism is conducive to the further improvement of the regional WRCC. This article focuses on the temporal and spatial variability of WRCC to explore a method of dynamic successive assessment. Firstly, the Pressure-State-Response (PSR)framework is used to develop a systematic and causal indicator system. Then, The Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition (VFPR) model and an analytic hierarchy process-entropy (AHP-E) model are combined to successively and dynamically assess WRCC. The proposed method is applied to the dynamic successive assessment of WRCC in Hebei Province, and it is obtained that the poor water resources carrying capacity in Hebei Province is mainly due to the basic attribute of the decision of the water resources shortage, but Hebei Province actively adopts a variety of measures to save water and pressurize mining, which makes the province's water resources carrying capacity have a tendency to become better gradually. At the same time, the system dynamics model (SD) of water resources carrying capacity based on the analysis of the model structure was established. Moreover, three scenarios were designed, including existing continuation, high-efficiency water-saving, cross-regional water transfer and coordinated development, each scenario divided into high and low-speed economic development and population growth schemes, then total 6 schemes between 2023 and 2030 were simulated and predicted respectively. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to maintain low levels. It was concluded that the high-speed development of economy and population, the efficient water conservation and inter-basin transfer scenario (scenario 2 with high-speed) is the best choice for sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Hebei.

Panoramic and periapical radiograph tools help dentists diagnose the most common dental diseases. Generally, dentists identify dental caries manually by inspecting X-ray images. However, due to their heavy workload, or poor image quality, dentists may sometimes overlook some unnoticeable dental caries, which may ultimately hinder the patient treatment. The purpose of this study was to develop an algorithm that classifies the teeth X-Ray images into three categories of “Normal”, “Caries”, and “Filled”. Our study used a dataset of 116 patients and 3712 single teeth images for training, validation and testing. Images were pre-processed using a sharpening filter and an intensity color map. We used a pre-trained transfer learning model, the NASNetMobile, which served as the feature extractor and the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model served as the classifier. The training dataset had a “Recall” of 0.92, 0.90 and 0.91 for “Normal”, “Caries” and “Filled” respectively and the test dataset had a “Recall” of 0.86, 0.81 and 0.85 for “Normal”, “Caries” and “Filled” respectively. The classification of the teeth X-Rays was successful and can be valuable for dentist as the artificial intelligence algorithm can serve as a decision support tool to aid dentists when they need to diagnose dental treatment.

The purposes of this study are based upon the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to examine the impact of past experiences of contract farming on selecting a specific type of contract farming in the future and then compare different psychological factors in the TPB for different potential contract farmer statuses. These statuses include homesteaders, farmers from cooperative farms, farmers from production and sales teams, professional farmers, and brokers. The impact of factors in the TPB for a particular contract type on potential contract farmers is further to compute. To this end, data are collected in three major sweet potato production areas in Taiwan. The results show that the farmers’ past contract farming experience does not influence the selection of the contract in the future. As for the selection of contract type, strengthening the perception and motivating the behavioral intention of contract farming for cooperative farms will increase the probability of selecting an unclassified sweet potato size contract. On the other hand, enhancing perceived behavioral control factors and behavioral intention factors for professional farmers and brokers is apt to have a relatively high probability of selecting those types involving the highest amount or the best price to obtain the best deal.

This paper aims to provide the smart grid research community with an open and accessible general mathematical framework to develop and implement optimal flexibility mechanisms in large-scale network applications. The motivation of this paper is twofold. On the one hand, flexibility mechanisms are currently a hot topic of research, which is aimed to mitigate variation and uncertainty of electricity demand and supply in decentralised grids with a high aggregated share of renewables. On the other hand, a large part of such related research is performed by heuristic methods, which are generally inefficient (such methods do not guarantee optimality) and difficult to extrapolate for different use cases. Alternatively, this paper presents an MPC-based (Model Predictive Control) framework explicitly including a generic flexibility mechanism which is easy to particularise to specific strategies such as Demand Response, Flexible Production and Energy Efficiency Services. The proposed framework is benchmarked with other non-optimal control configurations to better show the advantages it provides. The work of this paper is completed by the implementation of a generic use case which aims to further clarify the use of the framework and thus, to ease its adoption by other researchers in their specific flexibility mechanisms applications.

Financial Payment has evolved into mobile payment for easy access and convenience. Despite the benefits of mobile payment, the adoption rate is unsatisfactory worldwide. Therefore, understanding the customer's adoption intention factors is essential for both researchers and practitioners. This study examines mobile payment intention and actual use by adapting the integrated framework, which combines the Mobile Technology Acceptance Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour with additional new constructs found to be related. The new model consists of 12 variables moderated by the individual's experience and is examined via a structured PLS equation mixed-mode methodology. Knowing mobile payment influence will shape the industry strategic decision and socially contribute to transforming society into a cashless society. This paper provides an opportunity to prove the relationship between technology variables and human behaviour concerning mobile payment adoption. In contrast, this study novelty adopted an integrated model that combines MTAM with the TPB.

In bioprocess engineering the Qualtiy by Design (QbD) initiative encourages the use of models to define design spaces. However, clear guides on how models for QbD are validated are still missing. In this review we provide a comprehensive overview about validation methods, mathematical approaches and metrics currently applied in bioprocess modeling. The methods cover analytics for data used for modeling, model training and selection, measures for predictiveness and model uncertainties. We point out general issues in model validation and calibration for different types of models and put this into context of existing health authority recommendations. This review provides the start-point for developing a guidance for model validation approaches. There is no one-fits-all approach but this review shall help to identify the best fitting validation method or combination of methods for the specific task and type of bioprocess models that is developed.

The new Post Accelerating Data and Knowledge Online Society, or ‘Padkos’ requires a new model of decision making. This introductory paper proposes a model where decision making and learning are a single symbiotic process, incorporating man and machine, as well as the AADD (ánthrōpos, apparatus, decider, doctrina) diamond model of individual and organizational decision-making and learning processes. The learning is incorporated by using a newly proposed quadruple loop learning model. This model allows for controlled changes of identity, the process of creating and the sense making of new mental models and assumption, and reflections. The model also incorporates the recently proposed model of quantum decision-making, where time collapse of the opted past and the anticipated future (explicitly including its time horizon) into the present play a key role in the process, leveraging decision-making and learning by human as well as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. The paper closes with conclusions.

Rubble stone masonry walls are widely diffused in most of the cultural and architectural heritage of historical cities. The mechanical response of such material is rather complicated to predict due to their composite nature. Vertical compression tests, diagonal compression tests, and shear-compression tests are usually adopted to experimentally investigate the mechanical properties of stone masonries. However, further tests are needed for the safety assessment of these ancient structures. Since the relation between normal and shear stresses plays a major role in the shear behavior of masonry joints, governing the failure mode, triplet test configuration was here investigated. First, the experimental tests carried out at the laboratory (LPMS) of the University of L'Aquila on stone masonry specimens were presented. Then, the triplet test was simulated by using the Total Strain Crack Model, which reflects all the ultimate states of quasi-brittle material such as cracking, crushing and shear failure. The goal of the numerical investigation was to evaluate the shear mechanical parameters of the masonry sample, including strength, dilatancy, normal and shear deformations. Furthermore, the effect of (i) confinement pressure and (ii) bond behavior at the sample-plates interfaces were investigated, showing that they can strongly influence the mechanical response of the walls.

The famous singlet correlations of a composite quantum system consisting of two spatially separated components exhibit notable features of two kinds. The first kind consists of striking certainty relations: perfect correlation and perfect anti-correlation in certain settings. The second kind consists of a number of symmetries, in particular, invariance under rotation, as well as invariance under exchange of components, parity, or chirality. In this note, I investigate the class of correlation functions that can be generated by classical composite physical systems when we restrict attention to systems which reproduce the certainty relations exactly, and for which the rotational invariance of the correlation function is the manifestation of rotational invariance of the underlying classical physics. I call such correlation functions classical EPR-B correlations. It turns out that the other three (binary) symmetries can then be obtained "for free": they are exhibited by the correlation function, and can be imposed on the underlying physics by adding an underlying randomisation level. We end up with a simple probabilistic description of all possible classical EPR-B correlations in terms of a "spinning coloured disk" model, and a research programme: describe these functions in a concise analytic way.

Structure from Motion with Multi-View Stereo photogrammetry (SfM) is increasingly utilised in geoscience investigations as a cost-effective method of acquiring high resolution (sub-meter) topographic data, but has not been thoroughly tested in gullied savanna systems. The aim of this study was to test the accuracy of topographic models derived from aerial (via an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, ‘UAV’) and ground-based (via a handheld digital camera, ‘Ground’) SfM in modelling a hillslope gully system in dry-tropical savanna, and to assess the strengths and limitations of the approach at different scales. A UAV survey covered an entire hillslope gully system (0.715 km²), whereas a Ground survey covered a single gully within the broader system (650 m²). SfM topographic models, including Digital Surface Models (DSM) and dense point clouds, were compared against RTK-GPS point data and a pre-existing airborne LiDAR Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Results indicate UAV SfM can deliver topographic models with a resolution and accuracy suitable to define gully systems at a hillslope scale (e.g., 0.1 m resolution with ~ 0.5 – 1.3 m elevation error), while ground-based SfM is more capable of quantifying gully morphology (e.g., 0.01 m resolution with ~ 0.1 m elevation error). Key strengths of SfM for these applications include: the production of high resolution 3D topographic models and ortho-photo mosaics, low survey instrument costs (< $AUD 3,000); and rapid survey time (4 and 2 hours for UAV and Ground survey respectively). Current limitations of SfM include: difficulties in reconstructing vegetated surfaces; uncertainty as to optimal survey and processing designs; and high computational demands. Overall, this study has demonstrated great potential for SfM to be used as a cost-effective tool to aid in the mapping, modelling and management of hillslope gully systems at different scales, in tropical savanna landscapes and elsewhere.

Background: Cognitive decline (CD) is a significant concern in Parkinson's disease (PD), highlighting the need for reliable risk prediction models for early intervention. This study used machine learning (ML) techniques to predict the CD risk over five-year in early-stage PD. Methods: Data from the Early Parkinson's Disease Longitudinal Singapore (2014 to 2018) was used to predict CD defined as a one-unit annual decrease or a one-unit decline in Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) over two consecutive years. Four ML methods—AutoScore, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors and Neural Network—were applied using baseline demographics, clinical assessments and blood biomarkers. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity. Results: Variable selection identified key predictors of CD, including education year, diastolic lying blood pressure, diastolic standing blood pressure, systolic lying blood pressure, Hoehn and Yahr scale, body mass index, phosphorylated tau at threonine 181, total tau, Neurofilament light chain and suppression of tumorigenicity 2. Random Forest was the most effective, achieving an AUC of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.89, 0.97), using 10-fold cross-validation. Conclusion: ML-based models offer potential for early identification of patients at high risk of CD, facilitating targeted interventions and improving patient outcomes in PD management.

With increasing global attention on carbon emission control, the carbon market has become an important tool for carbon emission regulation. As an important part of energy trading, the electricity market is closely related to the carbon market. Given the relative maturity of the EU carbon market and electricity market, this paper identifies key points of market volatility through the Coupling coordination model analysis, and uses the GPT large model analysis to analyze policy factors that have a greater impact on carbon market and electricity market transactions. The research results show that market-regulating policies and expectation management policies have the greatest impact on the degree of coupling between the carbon and electricity markets. The impact of secondary policies such as international cooperation policies and structural adjustment policies is relatively insignificant. Although the development of China's carbon market faces many challenges, reasonable policy interventions are expected to achieve significant results in the domestic carbon market. Finally, this paper also draws on analogy analysis to draw corresponding implications for China from the EU's carbon-electricity coupling policy promulgation.

In underwater clustering and benchmark networks, nodes need to reduce the rate and energy consumption of acoustic communication while ensuring synchronization accuracy. In large-scale networks, the improvement of the efficiency of existing network time synchronization often relies on optimization of topological structures, and the improvement in efficiency within local areas is limited. This paper proposes a method to synchronize underwater time using the probability graph model. The method utilizes the positional and motion status information of sensor networks to construct a factor graph model for distributed network synchronization. By simplifying the marginal probability density function of the system clock difference, it can quickly calculate the clock difference parameters of nodes, thereby effectively improving the synchronization efficiency. Experimental results show that the method can complete global time synchronization within a cycle while achieving a clock difference correction accuracy higher than seconds, significantly optimizing the synchronization period and efficiency, and reducing the energy consumption of acoustic communication.

This study introduces an ensemble model designed for real-time monitoring of bedridden patients.The model was developed using a unique dataset, specifically acquired for this study, that captures six typical movements. The dataset was balanced using the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique, resulting in a diverse distribution of movement types. Three models were evaluated: a Decision Tree Regressor, a Gradient Boosting Regressor, and a Bagging Regressor. The Decision Tree Regressor achieved an accuracy of 0.892 and an R2 score of 1.0 on the training dataset, and 0.939 on the test dataset. The Boosting Regressor achieved an accuracy of 0.908 and an R2 score of 0.99 on the training dataset, and 0.943 on the test dataset. The Bagging Regressor was selected due to its superior performance and trade-offs such as computational cost and scalability. It achieved an accuracy of 0.950, an R2 score of 0.996 for the training data, and an R2 score of 0.959 for the test data. The study also employs K-Fold cross-validation and learning curves to validate the robustness of the Bagging Regressor model. The proposed system addresses practical implementation challenges in real-time monitoring, such as data latency and false positives/negatives, and is designed for seamless integration with hospital IT infrastructure. This research demonstrates the potential of machine learning to enhance patient safety in healthcare settings.