Generative artificial intelligence (AI), in particular large language models such as ChatGPT have reached public consciousness with a wide-ranging discussion of their capabilities and suitability for various professions. The extant literature on the ethics of generative AI revolves around its usage and application, rather than the ethical framework of the responses provided. In the education sector, concerns have been raised with regard to the ability of these language models to aid in student assignment writing with the potentially concomitant student misconduct of such work is submitted for assessment. Based on a series of ‘conversations’ with multiple replicates, using a range of discussion prompts, this paper examines the capability of ChatGPT to provide advice on how to cheat in assessments. Since its public release in November 2022, numerous authors have developed ‘jailbreaking’ techniques to trick ChatGPT into answering questions in ways other than the default mode. While the default mode activates a safety awareness mechanism that prevents ChatGPT from providing unethical advice, other modes partially or fully bypass the this mechanism and elicit answers that are outside expected ethical boundaries. ChatGPT provided a wide range of suggestions on how to best cheat in university assignments, with some solutions common to most replicates (‘plausible deniability,’ language adjustment of contract written text’). Some of ChatGPT’s solutions to avoid cheating being detected were cunning, if not slightly devious. The implications of these findings are discussed.

The rise of multi-sided digital platforms has transformed the global economy, enabling individuals and companies to create, deliver, and capture value through innovative connections and network effects. While scholars have studied the core strategy concepts and proposed platform architectures, less attention has been paid to the long-term sustainability of these platforms. This paper addresses this gap by examining the relationship between sustainability and platform architecture. Specifically, it asks what mechanisms characterize digital platforms for sustainability, and whether there are design choices that optimize the business model for sustainability. Using a mixed-methods approach that draws on platform literature, business models, and sustainable innovation, the paper develops an integrative framework to identify elements and design choices in platform businesses which support sustainability outcomes. The framework is then used to classify the business models of the identified platforms, revealing specific design choices for platform architecture that can optimize their business models for sustainability. This contribution to existing literature provides an artifact that allocates key decisions on value creation, delivery, and capture that are key to platforms and includes an additional layer to optimize them for long-term sustainability. As digital platforms continue to drive the economy, this research is relevant not only to platform practitioners, but also to policy makers and society at large.

Machine learning methods have been a standard approach to select features that are associated with an outcome and build a prediction model when the number of candidate features is large. LASSO has been one of the most popular approaches to this end. LASSO approach selects features with large regression estimates, rather than based on statistical significance, associating the outcome, by imposing L1-norm penalty to overcome the high dimensionality of the candidate features. As a result, LASSO may select insignificant features while possibly missing significant ones. Furthermore, from our experience, LASSO has been found to select too many features. By selecting features that are not associated with the outcome, we may have to spend more cost to collect and manage them in the future use of a fitted prediction model. Using the combination of L1- and L2-norm penalties, elastic net (EN) tends to select more features than LASSO. The overly selected features that are not associated with the outcome act like white noise, so that the fitted prediction model loses the prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose to use the standard regression methods (without any penalizing approach) with stepwise variable selection procedure to overcome these issues. Unlike LASSO and EN, this method selects features based on statistical significance. Through extensive simulations, we show that this maximum likelihood estimation based method selects very small number of features while maintaining a high prediction power, while LASSO and EN make a large number of false selections to result in loss of prediction accuracy. Contrary to LASSO and EN, the regression methods combined with a stepwise variable selection method is a standard statistical method, so that any biostatistician can use it to analyze high dimensional data even without advanced bioinformatics knowledge.

Deep neural networks with powerful auto-optimization tools have been widely applied in various research fields, e.g., NLP and computer vision. However, existing neural network architectures typically are constructed using different inductive biases, e.g., preconceptions, expecting to decrease parameter search space during training, reduce computational cost or introduce expert knowledge in the neural network design. As an alternative, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) provides much better freedom for exploration, has a lower inductive bias than convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and offers good flexibility in learning complex patterns. Even though, such neural architectures are commonly built in a flat Euclidean space, which is not necessarily the optimal space for any data, and is especially not good for modeling hierarchical correlations. Hyperbolic neural networks (HNNs) have gained attention for their ability to capture hierarchical structures present in complex data types like graphs. Recently, there has been an increasing interest to extend HNNs to computer vision tasks, motivated by the observations that images possess rich hierarchical relations. However, this is generally applied by employing a Euclidean backbone for learning higher-level semantic representations and only incorporating a hyperbolic classifier for classification, which, we argue, does not make full use of the advantage of hyperbolic space. Considering the recovery of the attention-free Multilayer Perceptron(MLP), in this paper, we extend it to non-Euclidean space and propose a novel architecture, named Hyperbolic Res-MLP (HR-MLP), that leverages fully hyperbolic layers to learn feature embeddings and perform image classification in an end-to-end fashion. With the help of the proposed Lorentz cross-patch and cross-channel layers, we can directly perform operations in the hyperbolic domain with fewer parameters, making it faster to train and providing comparatively better performance than its Euclidean counterpart. Experiments on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and MiniImageNet demonstrate a comparable and superior performance when compared to Euclidean baselines. Our code is available at (https://github.com/Ahmad-Omar-Ahsan/HR-MLP)

Forest biomass is one of the most significant renewable energy sources in the Czech Republic. Recently, Czech forests have been under attack by spruce bark beetles, threatening the stability of biomass supply also for energy purposes. The goal of this paper is to uncover the impact of four different biomass development scenarios and three policies on the energy system and to evaluate the contribution of biomass to decarbonization efforts. We use the TIMES-CZ energy system optimization model to perform the analyses. We provide a crucial extension of this model by regionalizing it into NUTS3 +1 regions. Our main findings are that under the expected price of various types of biomass and their transportation cost, energy system would still exploit available biomass almost entirely throughout the period under review; subsidizing the production cost of the most expensive type of biomass for households would help utilize the full potential of biomass; and power and heat sector and industry would compete for biomass consumption against the residential sector.

As a radiant light source within the dynamic range of most spacecraft payloads, the moon pro-vides an excellent reference for on-orbit radiometric calibration. This research hinges on the pre-cise simulation of lunar spectral irradiances and the Earth-based Moon observation geometry. The paper leverages the Hapke model to simulate the temporal changes in lunar spectral irradi-ances, utilizing datasets obtained from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC). The re-search also details the transformation process from the lunar geographic coordinate system to the instantaneous projection coordinate system, thereby delineating the necessary observational geometry. The insights offered by this study have the potential to enhance future in-orbit space-craft calibration procedures, thereby boosting the fidelity of data gathered from satellite obser-vations.

The thermal properties of a building envelope are key indicators of the energy performance of the building. Therefore, methods are needed to determine quantities like U-values or heat capacitance in a fast, reliable way and with as little impact on the use of the building as possible. In this paper a technique is proposed that relies on a simplified electrical analogical model of building envelope components which can cover their dynamic thermal behavior. The parameters of this model are optimized to produce the best fit between simulated and measured outside surface temperatures. As the temperatures can be measured remotely with an infrared camera this approach requires significantly less installation effort and intrusion in the building than other methods. At the same time, a single measurement provides data for a large range of locations on a facade or a roof. The paper describes the method and a first experimental implementation of it. The experiment indicates that this method has the potential to produce results which have an accuracy that is comparable to standardized reference methods.

In the context of economic development and international economic integration, the logistics industry in Vietnam is developing to meet the market demand for the transportation of goods; thus, many logistics enterprises have been formulated and grown up in recent years. This research aims to measure the efficiency of logistics enterprises and recommend a feasible solution to improve their future performance by integrating the Super Slacked-based Measure model (Super-SBM) in Data Envelopment Analysis and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Processes (Fuzzy AHP) in multi-criteria decision-making. The super-SBM model was utilized to conduct the efficiency scores of logistics enterprises from 2016 to 2022 based on calculating the ratio between input and output variables; the empirical result determined each enterprise's effectiveness and ineffectiveness. Next, the Fuzzy AHP method evaluated and ranked criteria that directly impacted the operational process of logistics enterprises based on experts' opinions; the examined result suggested a feasible direction to improve their business efficiency in the future. The proposed hybrid models are a helpful solution for efficiency determination and development direction for logistics enterprises. An overall picture of the logistics enterprises was also drawn to describe their operational business process.

Patient value is an important factor in clinical decision-making, but conventionally, it is not incorporated in the decision processes. In this paper, a value-based therapy recommendation comprehensive model is proposed. A literature analysis is conducted to collect value-based evidence. Categorized values and candidate therapies are used in combination as filtering keywords to build this evidence. Then a formalism model is put forward to integrate the value-based evidence with clinical evidence. The relative importance of two evidence can be adjusted dynamically by decision-makers during the decision-making processes. A prototype system was implemented using a case study for breast cancer and validated for feasibility and effectiveness.

The focus of this paper is on analyzing the role and the choice of parameters in sociophysics diffusion models, by leveraging the potentialities of sociophysics from a mathematical programming perspective. We first present a generalised version of Galam’s opinion diffusion model (see, e.g. , ). For a given selection of the coefficients in our model, this proposal yields the original Galam’s model. The generalised model suggests guidelines for possible alternative selection of its parameters that allow to foster diffusion. Examples of the parameters selection process as steered by numerical optimisation, taking into account various objectives, are provided.

Dioscorea composita is a plant native to México and Central America with a high concentration of diosgenin precursors. Currently, México is one of the two most important countries producers of this yam; however, climate change is altering the environmental conditions of its natural habits, threatening its preservation and productivity. This is why this research was focused to characterize the eco-geography of D. composita and predict its potential geographic distribution under climate change scenarios in México-Central America. A collection of 408 geo-referenced accessions was used to determine its climatic adaptation, ecological descriptors, and the current and future potential geographic distribution, which was modeled with MaxEnt model through the Kuenm R-package. For future climate scenarios, an ensemble of the GCMs HadGEM-ES and CCSM4 was used. Results showed that D. composita adapts to warm humid and very humid agro-climates and that the most contributing variables for its presence are annual and seasonal moisture availability indices, seasonal photoperiod, annual thermal range, Bio14 and Bio11. The year 2050 RCP 4.5 climate scenario would contract the potential distribution of D. composita, whilst the 2050 RCP 8.5 scenario would expand it, indicating that this species could be a good crop option under this scenario of emissions.

This paper studies the pilot control strategy and workload of tilt-rotor aircraft dynamic conversion procedure between helicopter mode and fixed-wing mode. A nonlinear flight dynamics model of tilt-rotor aircraft with full flight modes is established. On this basis, a nonlinear optimal control model of dynamic conversion is constructed, considering factors such as conversion corridor limitations, pilot control, flight attitude, engine rated power, and wing stall effects. To assess pilot workload, an analytical method based on wavelet transform is proposed, which examines the mapping relationship between pilot control input's amplitude, constituent frequencies, and control tasks. By integrating the nonlinear optimal control model and the pilot workload evaluation method, the analysis of pilot control strategy and workload during the conversion procedure is conducted, leading to the identification of strategies to reduce pilot workload. The results indicate that incorporating the item of pilot workload in the performance index results in a notable reduction in the magnitude of collective stick inputs and longitudinal stick inputs. Moreover, it facilitates smoother adjustments in altitude and pitch attitude. Additionally, the conversion of the engine nacelle can be achieved at a lower and constant angular velocity. In summary, the conversion and reconversion procedures are estimated to have a low workload (Level 1 ~ Level 2), with relatively simple and easy manipulation for the pilot.

Aim: This study was to evaluate the predictive value of tumor marker (TM) score in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) as a first-line chemotherapy. Materials/Methods: From September 2020 to December 2022, 371 HCC patients treated with Atez/Bev, in whom alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), fucosylated AFP (AFP-L3) and des gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) were measured at introducing Atez/Bev. Elevations of AFP (≥100 ng/ml), AFP-L3 (≥10%), and DCP (≥100 mAU/ml) were treated as positive, and the number of positive tumor marker was summed up and used as the previously proposed TM score. Hepatic reserve function was assessed with modified albumin-bilirubin grade (mALBI). Predictive values for prognosis were evaluated, retrospectively. Results: TM score 0 was in 81 (21.8%), score 1 in 110 (29.6%), score 2 in 112 (29.9%), and score 3 in 68 (18.3%), respectively. Median overall survival (OS) was not applicable [NA] (95% CI NA-NA), 24.0 months (95% CI 17.8-NA), 16.7 months (95% CI 17.8-NA) and NA (95%CI 8.3-NA) for TM scores 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively (p<0.001). Median progression free survival (PFS) was also 16.5 months (95% CI 8.0-not applicable [NA]), 13.8 months (95% CI 10.6-21.3) and 7.7 months (95% CI 5.3-8.9), 5.8 months (95%CI 3.0-7.6), respectively (p<0.001). OS was stratified well in mALBI 1/2a as well as in mALBI 2a/2b. Whereas, PFS was well stratified in mALBI 2a/2b, while not in mALBI 1/2a. Conclusion: The TM score was a simple and useful prognostic marker in HCC patients treated with Atez/Bev.

For an enterprise, the most critical aspect of development is resource management, which has a significant impact on all aspects of the enterprise. Therefore, enterprises must pay attention to resource management allocation, which can better promote the sustainable development of the enterprise and obtain optimal benefits. In the production and development of modern enterprises, the acquisition of benefits also involves the allocation of resources in enterprise management. This paper proposed a benefit optimization scheduling algorithm based on a macroeconomic prediction model under auction mechanism and a grid resource scheduling algorithm driven by a benefit function to allocate resources reasonably. This article used macroeconomic forecasting models to fully understand the resource needs of various departments and the resources held by enterprises, and rationally allocate various resources in various departments. This can improve the work efficiency of various departments, thereby reducing the cost of the enterprise, and achieving optimal benefits for the enterprise. The experimental results in this paper showed that the cost of resource management allocation for the benefit optimization scheduling algorithm and the grid resource scheduling algorithm based on the benefit function driven under the auction mechanism was 105.6 yuan and 46.8 yuan respectively when the task volume was 125 under the multi user environment. The time allocated for resource management was 36.6s and 18.9s respectively. It can be seen that the efficiency function driven grid resource scheduling algorithm had a lower cost and time for resource management allocation, so the efficiency function driven grid resource scheduling algorithm can achieve enterprise efficiency optimization.

To understand forest dynamics under today’s changing environmental conditions, it is important to analyze the state of forests at large scales. Forest inventories are not available for all regions, so it is important to use other additional sources of information, e.g. remote sensing observations. Increasingly, remotely sensed data based on optical instruments and airborne LIDAR are becoming widely available for forests. There is great potential in analyzing these measurements and gaining an understanding of forests state. In this work, we combine the new generation radiative transfer model mScope with the individual-based forest model FORMIND to generate reflectance spectra for forests. Combining the two models allows us to account for species diversity at different height layers in the forest. We compare the generated reflectances for forest stands in Finland, in the region of North Karelia, with Sentinel-2 measurements. We investigate which level of forest representation gives the best results. For the majority of the forest stands, we generated good reflectances with all levels forest representation compared to the measured reflectance. Good correlations were also found for the vegetation indices (especially NDVI with R²=0.62). This work provides a forward modelling tool for relating forest reflectance to forest characteristics. With this tool it is possible to generate a large set of forest stands with corresponding reflectances. This opens the possibility to understand how reflectance is related to succession and different forest conditions.

Individuals and their leadership competencies have been the sole focus of project leadership research, rather than the project leadership's behaviour and functions in project and organizational settings. As a result, this study investigates the project leadership functions and behaviours required for various project and organizational situations in order to propose a project leadership model that will be effective in all project and organizational situations. The model that was developed and tested in this study theorized on the project leadership function that project leaders are expected to perform as a result of their positions. It also described how project leaders could tailor their leadership functions and behaviours to address issues related to positions, organizational situations, and project situations. Three hypotheses were developed and tested using structural equation modelling to validate the model. The model's perceptive power demonstrates adequate validity. The model's validity implies that there are appropriate project leadership functions for different leadership levels and circumstances. The model's validity also implies that each project leadership behaviour has its own value, as conditions and necessities dictate. The study assumes that a project leader can embrace project leadership by combining a few different project leadership functions and behaviours.

The dynamics of the main photosynthetic structures is studied by mathematical modeling methods in this article. Chlorophyll portion variability in phytoplankton and the formation of energy-intensive substances in the process of photosynthesis underlie the models. These cellular components are considered in terms of their participation in the growth of specific biomass. Computational experiments are presented that simulate various degrees of environmental friendliness. The corresponding functions are built in accordance with seasonal fluctuations throughout the year in the Far East region of Russia. The stability of model solutions in long-term dynamics is also investigated. The models were tested for biological adequacy and their effectiveness was compared. For the model selected as a result of the comparison, the optimal control problem has been formulated and solved. It is shown that in this way it is possible to reduce the space of the initial components of the model system.

Several studies have shown that the traditional way of learning is not optimal when we aim to improve ICT users’ actual privacy behavior. In this research, we present a literature review of the theories that are followed in other fields to modify human behavior. Our findings show that the cognitive theory and the health belief model present optimistic results. Further, we examine various learning methods and we conclude that experiential learning is advantageous compared to other methods. In this paper aggregate the privacy behavior determinant factors found in the literature and we use the cognitive theory to we synthesize a theoretical framework. The proposed framework can be beneficial to educational policy makers and practitioners, such as public and private schools, and universities. Also, our framework provides a fertile ground for more research on experiential privacy learning and privacy behavior enhancement.

The use of mathematical models of physiological systems in medicine has allowed the development of diagnostic, treatment, and medical educational tools, but their application for predictive, preventive, and personalized purposes is restricted by their complexity. Although there are strategies that reduce the complexity of applying models by fitting techniques, they focus on a single instant of time, neglecting the effect of the system's temporal evolution. The aim of this work is to propose a dynamic fitting strategy of physiological models with large number of parameters and a constrained amount of experimental data, focused on obtaining better predictions based on the system's temporal trend and useful to predict future states. It was applied in a cardiorespiratory model as a case study. Experimental data from a longitudinal study of healthy adult subjects under aerobic exercise were used for fitting and validation. The model predictions obtained at steady-state using the proposed strategy and the nominal values of the parameters were compared. The best results corresponded mostly to the proposed strategy, mainly regarding the overall prediction error. The results evidenced the usefulness of the dynamic fitting strategy, highlighting its use for predictive, preventive, and personalized applications.

In network analysis, links depict the connections between each pair of network nodes. However, such pairwise connections fail to consider the interactions among more agents, which may be indirectly connected. Such non-pairwise or higher-order connections can be signified by involving simplicial complexes. The higher-order connections become even more noteworthy when it comes to neuronal network synchronization, an emerging phenomenon responsible for the many biological processes in real-world phenomena. However, involving higher-order interactions may considerably increase the computational costs. To confound this issue, map-based models are more suitable since they are faster, simpler, more flexible, and computationally more optimal. Therefore, this paper addresses the impact of pairwise and non-pairwise neuronal interactions on the synchronization state of 10 coupled memristive Hindmarsh-Rose neuron maps. To this aim, electrical, inner linking, and chemical synaptic functions are considered as 2- and 3-body interactions in three homogenous and two non-homogenous cases. The results show that through chemical pairwise and non-pairwise synapses, the neurons achieve synchrony with the weakest coupling strengths.

Modern computational biology makes widespread use of mathematical models of biological systems, in particular systems of ordinary differential equations, as well as models of dynamic systems described in other formalisms, such as agent-based models. Parameters are numerical values of quantities reflecting certain properties of a modeled system and affecting model solu-tions. At the same time, depending on parameter values, different dynamic regimes - stationary, oscillatory, established as a result of transient modes of various types - can be implemented in the system. Predicting changes in the solution dynamics type depending on changes of model parameters is an important scientific task. Nevertheless, this problem does not have an analytical solution for all formalisms in a general case. The routinely used method of performing a series of computa-tional experiments, i.e. solving a series of direct problems with various sets of parameters fol-lowed by expert analysis of solution plots is labor-intensive with a large number of parameters and a decreasing step of the parametric grid. In this regard, the development of methods allow-ing to obtain and analyze information on a set of computational experiments in an aggregate form is relevant. This work is devoted to developing a method for visualization and classification of various dy-namic regimes of a model using a composition of the dynamic time warping (DTW-algorithm) and principal coordinates analysis (PCoA) methods. This method allows to obtain a qualitative visualisation of the results of the set of solutions of a mathematical model and to carry out the correspondence between the values of the model parameters and the type of dynamic regimes of its solutions. This method has been tested on the Lotka-Volterra model and artificial sets of var-ious dynamics

Background: Functional Movement Screening (FMS) allows for rapid assessment of an individual’s physical activity level and timely detection of sports injury risk. However, traditional functional movement screening often requires on-site assessment by experts, which is time-consuming and prone to subjective bias. Therefore, the study of automated functional movement screening has become increasingly important. Methods: In this study, we propose an automated assessment method for FMS based on the improved Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). First, the oversampling of minority samples is conducted, the movement features are manually extracted from the FMS dataset collected with two Azure Kinect depth sensors, then we train the Gaussian mixture model with different scores (1 point, 2 points, 3 points) of feature data separately, finally, we conducted FMS assessment by the Maximum Likelihood estimation. Results: The improved GMM has a higher scoring accuracy (Improved GMM:0.8) compared to other models (Traditional GMM=0.38, Adaboost.M1=0.7, Naïve-Bayes=0.75), and the scoring results of improved GMM have a high level of agreement with the expert scoring (kappa=0.67). Conclusions: The results show that the proposed method based on the improved Gaussian mixture model can effectively perform the FMS assessment task and it is potentially feasible to use depth cameras for FMS assessment.

Air pollution is an important factor affecting human health and daily life. Chinese government is making vigorous efforts to control air pollution. The upgrading of industrial structure is a problem-solving tool in environment and economic growth cases. This paper aims to explore the relationships among environmental regulation, the upgrading of industrial structure and air pollution. The PVAR (Panel Vector Auto Regression) model and moderation effect model has been used to conduct empirical analysis based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2020. The results of analysis indicate (1) the environmental regulation can significantly reduce the air pollution, but the deterioration of air quality could not effectively influence environmental regulations. (2) The upgrading of industrial structure can weaken the air pollution and air pollution hinders the upgrading of industrial structure. (3) With the improvement of environmental regulation, the industrial structure is constantly upgraded, but the upgrading of the industrial structure has a negative effect on the improvement of environmental regulation. (4) The upgrading of industrial structure can positively moderate the influence of environmental regulation on air pollution.

Since the early 21st century, the globalization trend and technological innovations have changed the ways and speed of market growth. Rapid market expansion and the pressure for firms to achieve sustainable business growth via mergers and acquisitions have become the norms for acquiring the necessary competencies, expanding market shares and business integrations. This study explains the factors that correlate to the IJM's financial performance based on the market dynamics in recent years. This case study is a qualitative approach employing systematic review and content analysis. As a result, firms begin to diversify or venture into the business segments that might be related to or complement their core businesses, intentionally or unintentionally, which eventually evolved into the conglomerate form. This case study provides a financial performance analysis of IJM Corporation Berhad's success and challenges from its conglomerate business model. The fact that a well-diversified firm will have better risk management in the event of an economic downturn is also a primary driver for firms to embark on a corporate diversification strategy. This case study reveals IJM's conglomerate model has been successful during its rapid business growth; however, it has shown signs of diminishing in recent years.

This paper presents some aspects of command and control of the new generation of machines-tools with numerical control. A problem faced by numerical control programmers is related to the length (relatively long) of the programs, with implications in the costs and duration of the manufacturing preparation. A method of reducing the main program and other redundant expenses is the introduction and use of processing cycles and subroutines for automatic calculation of the cutting tool trajectory, a fact that also allows the optimization and simplification of numerical control programming on flexible order manufacturing systems numeric. The method involves the use of predefined cycles and appropriate subroutines in order to improve the efficiency of the programming activity in a balanced way. It is a new and rapid method for optimize the structure of program using the numerical subroutine for command the movement of tool, in our case, with application for turning and milling.

This study, based on the AISAS model, explores the impact of the interaction effect between visual and auditory signals on consumer purchase behavior. Using experimental methods, 120 participants were randomly assigned to four different visual and auditory signal combinations, and their purchase intentions and actual purchase behavior were measured. The results show that the interaction effect between visual and auditory signals has a significant impact on both purchase intentions and actual purchase behavior, and there is a significant positive relationship. Specifically, when visual and auditory signals are mutually consistent, consumers have the highest purchase intentions and actual purchase behavior; when both visual and auditory signals are absent, consumers have the lowest purchase intentions and actual purchase behavior; when either the visual or auditory signal is missing, consumers' purchase intentions and actual purchase behavior are in between the two extremes. This study provides a new perspective for understanding consumers' decision-making processes in multi-sensory environments and offers valuable insights for the development of marketing strategies.

: This study investigates the use of various thunderstorm indices in predicting severe thunderstorms events during the monsoon season in four different regions in India. The research evaluates the performance of the prediction model using a model skill score and utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the double moment microphysics scheme to simulate model cases. It also compares fifteen thunderstorm indices derived from the ERA5 dataset to identify the most effective index for predicting severe thunderstorms events. The results of this study show that in-corporating thunderstorm indices with model skill scores improves severe thunderstorms fore-casting in the monsoon season in India. The result revealed that determining the optimal threshold for each index is crucial in achieving accurate predictions. The study also highlights the importance of considering multiple indices rather than relying on a single index to predict severe thunderstorms events. The advance indices such as Energy Helicity Index (EHI), Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP), mainly works well with extreme severe thunderstorms. The simplistic indices can predict the weak or severe thunderstorm easily. The use of multiple thunderstorm indices can also help mete-orologists to make more accurate predictions, which can further enhance public safety. In conclu-sion, this study demonstrates the potential of incorporating thunderstorm indices with model skill scores like HSS and TSS and combinations of different skill scores in severe thunderstorms fore-casting during the monsoon season in India. Future research can build upon the findings of this study to develop more accurate and reliable severe weather forecasting models.

An extensive review of literature simulations of polymer melts is given, considering results that test aspects of the Rouse model in the melt. We focus on the mean-square amplitudes < (X_p(0))^{2} > and time correlation functions < X_p(0) X_p(t) > of the Rouse modes $X_p(t)$. Contrary to the Rouse model: (i) Mean-square Rouse mode amplitudes < (X_p(0))^2> do not scale as sin^{-2}(p \pi/2N), N being the number of beads in the polymer. For small p (say, p <= 3) < (X_p(0))^2> scales with p as p^{-2}$; for larger p it scales as p^{-3}. (ii) Rouse mode time correlation functions < X_p(t) X_p(0) > do not decay with time as exponentials; they instead decay as stretched exponentials exp(-a t^b)$. b depends on p, typically with a minimum near N/2 or N/4. (iii) Polymer bead displacements are not described by independent Gaussian random processes. (iv) For p not equal to q, < X_p(t) X_{q}(0) > is sometimes non-zero. (v) The response of a polymer coil to a shear flow is a rotation, not the affine deformation predicted by Rouse. Simulations thus conclusively demonstrate that the Rouse model is invalid in polymer melts. We also briefly consider the Kirkwood-Riseman polymer model.

The influence of small-scale processes at the ocean-atmosphere boundary layer such as spray and foam on the surface waves prediction is studied. Estimates of the effect of including the exact number of specific fragmentation "parachute" type in the spray on the resulting drag coefficient is shown. For the estimates, the numerical simulations within WAVEWATCH III wave model are performed. The parameterizations of wind input were tested within WAVEWATCH III wave model: default ST4 and ST6 parameterizations and the ST1 and ST6 parameterizations used together with the implemented drag coefficient parameterization. The proposed parameterization takes into account the presence of foam and spay. The obtained results are compared with the NDBC buoys data. The importance of small-scale processes for waves at hurricane winds prediction and the prospects for their inclusion in modern numerical wave models is shown.

Today, the world is undergoing a major investment cycle in infrastructure, which is vital for the development and prosperity of countries and society. Management deficiencies in infrastructure projects are well known and some of them concerns weak engagement of project stakeholders. Importance of stakeholder engagement as the key success factors for infrastructure projects is recognized. However, the literature gives very few answers how this process manifests in projects. Some scholars concluded that it is a complex and undertheorized management process which necessitates more empirical research. The research questions seek to identify how practitioners perceive the stakeholder engagement, who implements activities and processes related to engagement and in what way, which organizational aspects influence the process and how success is achieved in infrastructural projects. Interviews were conducted with eight experienced experts who participated in a whole series of (complex) infrastructure projects. The interviews examined all aspects of the engagement of stakeholders in detail, and a thematic analysis was carried out. Based on the analysis, success/failure factors related to the stakeholder engagement process were defined. As a result, a framework model for engaging stakeholders and achieving success in infrastructure projects is presented, which is based on three management levels and three levels of project success.

In this study, by employing the think-aloud model, schema theory and the perceptual cycle model (PCM) from the perspective of vulnerable road traffic participants, the current traffic imperfections of a target section in Wudaokou were analyzed to explore potential improvement measures to enhance safety. Specifically, the present study recruited 30 local volunteers, which were equally divided into a pedestrian group, bicyclist group and E-cyclist group. The research procedure was mainly divided into three steps. By using the think-aloud method, we analyzed and recorded the contents of oral reports of the experimental road section. Then, through translation, segmentation, coding, analysis and other techniques, we sorted and studied the report data and drew a conclusion that was universal in improving the current road traffic conditions. It is hoped that through this study, on the one hand, the applicability of the oral report method, schema theory and perceptual cycle model in road traffic safety can be verified, and, on the other hand, some better improvement measures can be extracted for the road traffic state of the Wudaokou section.

The high penetration of intermittence resources in the energy market accelerates significantly the decarbonization process but, on the other hand, the electrical system has to face the problem of unbalances. Renewable Energies Sources (RES) are hard to precisely forecast, and power plants are not able to predict the amount of energy that they can provide far from the real time delivery. In this frame, the intraday market gets a fundamental role allowing agents to adjust their position close to the delivery time. In this work we suggest an agent-based model of intraday market combined with genetics algorithms to understand what the best strategy could be adopted by players in order to optimize the market efficiency in terms of welfare and unsold quantity. In the first part we show the effect on the market prices of different scenarios in which players aim at maximizing their revenues and selling/buying all their volumes. In the second part we show the effect of a particular genetic algorithm on the model, focusing on how agents can adapt their strategy to enhance the market efficiency. Comparative analyses are also performed to investigate how the welfare of the system increases as well as the unsold quantity decrease when genetic algorithm is introduced

Oscillating Sequential Universes Model (OSUM), an innovative cosmological model describing the universe's evolution through the interplay of dark energy and dark matter is presented in this study. The model proposes a series of expansions and contractions driven by dark energy and dark matter interactions, challenging the conventional view of a singular Big Bang event followed by continuous expansion. The necessity for model refinements, incorporating new observational constraints, reassessing dark energy-dark matter interaction assumptions, and investigating alternative mathematical formulations for the oscillation mechanism have been discussed in this study. The OSUM offers a comprehensive framework for future research and potential discoveries in astrophysics, cosmology, and fundamental physics, raising new questions and challenging prevailing assumptions about the cosmos.

The digital era offers many opportunities to the wind energy industry and research community. Digitalisation is one of the key drivers for reducing costs and risks over the whole wind energy project life cycle. One of the largest challenges in successfully implementing digitalisation is the lack of data sharing and collaboration between organisations in the sector. In order to overcome this challenge, a new collaboration method called WeDoWind was developed in recent work. The main innovation of this method is the way it creates tangible incentives to motivate and empower different types of people from all over the world to actually share data and knowledge in practice. In this present paper, the challenges related to comparing and evaluating different SCADA data based wind turbine fault detection models are investigated by carrying out a new case study, the "WinJi Gearbox Fault Detection Challenge", based on the WeDoWind Method. Six new solutions were submitted to the challenge, and a comparison and evaluation of the results show that, in general, some of the approaches (Particle Swarm Optimisation algorithm for constructing health indicators, performance monitoring using Deep Neural Networks, Combined Ward Hierarchical Clustering and Novelty Detection with Local Outlier Factor and Time-to-failure prediction using Random Forest Regression) appear to have a high potential to reach the goals of the Challenge. However, there are a number of concrete things that would have to have been done by the Challenge providers and the Challenge moderators in order to ensure success. This includes enabling access to more details of the different failure types, access to multiple data sets from more wind turbines experiencing gearbox failure, provision of a model or rule relating fault detection times or a remaining useful lifetime to the estimated costs for repairs, replacements and inspections, provision of a clear strategy for training and test periods in advance, as well as provision of a pre-defined template or requirements for the results. These learning outcomes are used directly to define a set of best practice data sharing guidelines for wind turbine fault detection model evaluation. They can be used by the sector in order to improve model evaluation and data sharing in the future.

Initial periods of adsorption kinetics play an important role in estimating the initial adsorption rate and rate constant of adsorption process. Several adsorption processes rapidly occur, and the experimental data of adsorption kinetics under the initial periods can contain potential errors. The pseudo-second-order (PSO) kinetic model has been popularly applied in the field of adsorption. The use of the nonlinear optimization method to obtain the parameters of the PSO model can minimize error functions during modelling compared to the linear method. However, the nonlinear method has limitations in that it cannot directly recognize potential errors in the experimental points of time-dependent adsorption, especially under the initial periods. In this study, for the first time, the different linear types (Types 1–6) of the PSO model are applied to discover the error points under the initial periods. The result indicated that the fitting method using its linear equations (Types 2–5) is really helpful for identifying the error (doubtful) experimental points from the initial periods of adsorption kinetics. The imprecise points lead to low adjusted R2 (adj-R2), high reduced χ2 (red-χ2), and high Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values. After removing those points, the experimental data were adequately fitted with the PSO model. statistical analyses demonstrated that the nonlinear method must be used for modelling the PSO model because its red-χ2 and BIC were lower than the linear method. Type 1 has been extensively applied in the literature because of its very high adj-R2 (0.9999) and its excellent fitting to experimental points. However, its application should be limited because the potential errors from experimental points were not identified by this type. For comparison, the other kinetic models (i.e., pseudo-first-order, pseudo-nth-order, Avrami, and Elovich) are applied. The modelling result using the nonlinear forms of those models indicated that the fault experimental points from the initial periods were not detected.

While the language model using the stop sign as an independent token has been widely used to decide when the model should stop, it may lead to the growth of vocabulary dimensions and further problems. Similarly, present research on game algorithms usually estimate stopping point related problems based on the evaluation of the winning rate. However, information redundancy may also exist in such models, thus increasing the training difficulty. Above two types of tasks (and similar autoregressive tasks) show a common problem of stopping point prediction. In this paper, we describe a design of separated model, trying to separate the complexity of stopping point prediction from the main task model, so that the information used for estimating stopping point can be reduced. On this basis, in order to verify the rationality of using separated model, we propose a model-free test method. It judges the separability of transformed data based on point difference and sequence difference metrics. In this way, it can predict the credibility of the separated model inference.

Vagueira Beach on the Central Portuguese coast, is known as one of the places in Europe most affected by coastal erosion. The area has suffered more than 156 meters of coastline retreat over the period 1958 to 2001. With the aim to evaluate the influence of local factors on coastal erosion, this paper assesses the anthropogenic and natural factors that are related with the retreat of the coastline, by adopting statistical correlation and regression analyses. Through the Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) it was observed that local factors such as annual dredging at the Aveiro Port entrance (r = 0.93), the total length of groins in the Espinho-Vagueira section (r = 0.89), and storm events (r = 0.52) are directly related to coastline retreat in the area. A multiple linear regression model was developed in which coastline retreat is explained by these same factors over the period 1980 to 2006. With a coefficient of determination of R² = 0.91, it was observed that length of groins (significant at the 1% level), dredging of the port entrance (significant at the 5% level) and precipitation (as a proxy for storm events; significant at the 10% level) are significantly correlated with coastline retreat. Hence, it is shown that anthropogenic factors are the main drivers of coastline retreat in Vagueira Beach. This study provides an innovative approach for the assessment of coastal erosion, resulting in important information that can be used for decision-making related to coastal zone management as it allows to understand in greater detail the main drivers of coastal erosion.

The bilateral trade relationship between PRC and ASEAN is close. As early as 2012, China has been the largest trading partner of ASEAN, and ASEAN has also taken the place of the United States as PRC’s second largest trading partner in 2019.This paper uses the theory of ecological population evolution, selects the total import and export volume of PRC and the ten ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2019 as the data sample, studies the bilateral trade relations between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries, analyzes the competition and symbiotic relationship of bilateral trade between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries and the possibility of trade friction according to the results, and proposes corresponding improvement strategies. According to the results of the population evolution competition model, China has a competitive relationship with Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, which is most likely to cause trade friction. China has a biased relationship with Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, which is more likely to cause trade friction. On this basis, in order to further strengthen the trade relations between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on improving infrastructure, strengthening independent innovation, seeking cooperation fields and actively investing abroad.

Study Region -This study is conducted for a cluster of watersheds within the Matagorda Basin along the south Texas coast in the United States. Study Focus - Retrospective streamflow simulations of two hydrologic models of contrasting formulations and complexity, namely the TxRR, a simple analog model, and the National Water Model (NWM), a land surface-hydrologic model that explicitly accounts for surface energy balance in calculating water budget, and whose output. The comparison was motivated by a) the need for improving the modeling of runoff dynamics for watersheds along central Texas coast through the introduction of NWM to inform freshwater inflow monitoring and flood planning, and b) the need to better understand the potential ability of the NWM to address shortcomings of TxRR related to the latter’s mechanistic deficiencies in a region known for hydroclimatic extremes. The study focuses on the temporal scale and climate dependence in the relative performance of the two models, the behaviors of models during extreme floods and droughts, and the relative efficacy of parameter transfer schemes. It further seeks to relate the performance differentials to model physics and calibration approaches. New Hydrologic Insights – NWM, with sophisticated representations of energe closure, is advantageous to TxRR in capturing low-frequency (interannual) variations in streamflow modulated by the surface energy balance, as evidenced by the superior correlation of its streamflow simulations at the interannual range. Yet, its overall performance trails behind TxRR at daily scale, and it tends to underpredict runoff volumes during two major floods. These features underscore the tendency of the model to suppress soil moisture at the onset of these events. On the other hand, TxRR outperforms in reproducing the volumes for the flooding events, but it overpredicts runoff during the extreme drought episode of 2011, likely an outcome of inadequate representation of the impacts of root zone soil moisture in regulating runoff. TxRR’s parameteralization scheme proves more effective for adaptation across watersheds due to the presence of steep gradation in soil properties .

When designing rule-based dialogue systems, the need for elaborate design by the designer is a challenge for dialogue systems. One way to reduce the cost of creating content is to generate utterances from data collected in an objective and reproducible manner. This study focuses on rule-based dialogue systems using survey data, and more specifically on opinion dialogue where the system models the user. In opinion dialogue, there has not been much study of topic transition methods for modeling users while maintaining their motivation for dialogue. To model them, we adopted information content. Our contribution includes the design of a rule-based dialogue system that does not require elaborate design. We also reported an appropriate topic transition method based on information content. This is confirmed by the influence of the user's personality characteristics. The content of questions can give the user a sense of the system's intention to understand them. We also reported the possibility that the system's rational intention contributes to the user's motivation for dialogue with the system.

Version Control and Source Code Management Systems, such as GitHub, contain large amount ofunstructured historical information of software projects. Recent studies have introduced Natural Language Processing (NLP) to help software engineers retrieve information from very large collection of unstructured data. In this study, we have extended our previous study by increasing our datasets and ML and clustering techniques. Method: We have followed a complex methodology made up of various steps. Starting from the raw commit messages we have employed NLP techniques to build a structured database. We have extracted their main features and used as input of different clustering algorithms. Once labelled each entry, we have applied supervised machine learning techniques to build a prediction and classification model. Results: We have developed a machine learning-based model to automatically classify commit messages of a software project. Our model exploits a ground-truth dataset which includes commit messages obtained from various GitHub projects belonging to the HEP context. Conclusions: The contribution of this paper is two-fold: it proposes a ground-truth database; it provides a machine learning prediction model. They automatically identify the more change-proneness areas of code. Our model has obtained a very high average precision, recall and F1-score.

Skin cancer is an uncommon but serious malignancy. Dermoscopic images examination and biopsy are required for cancer detection. Deep learning (DL) is extremely effective in learning characteristics and predicting malignancies. However, DL requires a large number of images to train. Image augmentation and transferring learning were employed to overcome the lack of images issue. In this study we divided images into two categories: benign and malignant. To train and test our models, we used the public ISIC 2020 database. Melanoma is classified as malignant in the ISIC 2020 dataset. Along with categorization, the dataset was studied to demonstrate variation. The performance of three top pretrained models was then benchmarked in terms of training and validation accuracy. Three optimizers were employed to optimize the loss: RMSProp, SGD, and ADAM. Using ResNet, VGG16, and MobileNetV2, we obtained training accuracy of 98.73%, 99.12%, and 99.76%, respectively. Using these three pretrained models, we attained a validation accuracy of 98.39%.

The prediction of an extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) is one of the challenging issues due to increasing intensity and its life period. In this study, an ESCS Fani that developed over Bay of Bengal region during 27 April - 4May, 2019 and made landfall over Odisha coast of India is investigated to forecast the storm track, intensity and structure. Two numerical experiments (changing two air-sea flux parameterization schemes; namely FLUX-1 and FLUX-2) are conducted with the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model by using a moving nest with fine horizontal resolution about 3 km. The high resolution (25 km) NCEP operational Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecast datasets are used to derive the initial and boundary conditions, the ARW model initialized at 00 UTC 29 April 2019 and forecasted for 108 hours. The forecasted track and intensity of Fani is validated with available India Meteorological Department (IMD) best-fit track datasets. Result shows that the track, landfall (position and time) and intensity in terms of minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) and maximum surface wind (MSW) of the storm is well predicted in the moving nested domain of the WRF model using FLUX-1 experiment. The track forecast errors on day-1 to day-4 are ~ 47 km, 123 km, 96 km, and 27 km in FLUX-1 and ~54 km, 142 km, 152 km and 166 km in Flux-2 respectively. The intensity is better predicted in FLUX-1 during the first 60 h followed by FLUX -2 for the remaining period. The structure in terms of relative humidity, water vapor, maximum reflectivity and temperature anomaly of the storm is also discussed and compared with available satellite and Doppler Weather Radar observations.

Current sources play an essential role in tissue excitation used in bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy. Most investigations use Howland current sources that, despite their practicality and simplified implementation, have operating frequency limitations and dependence on the load impedance due to theirs narrow output impedance, specially at higher frequencies. The objective of this work is to propose model for a robust current-controlled sinusoidal oscillator. The oscillator is based on fully analog electronics, which enables controlling oscillation phase and amplitude by using a voltage reference. The mathematical model is based on Pyragas control application to the classical harmonic oscillator. From the modelling process, it was build an oscillator topology based on second-generation current carriers and on transconductance amplifiers. The reference signal (Fsync) was a sinusoidal voltage source having a frequency of 1MHz and an amplitude of 1Vpp. The oscillator output current synchronized the oscillations’ phase and amplitude with Fsync, regardless of their magnitude before the control signal acted in the circuit at t≈13.5μs. SPICE simulations using ideal components have confirmed the successful operation of the proposed oscillator. This type of oscillator can be implemented in SOIC, then allowing oscillation control interface with logic circuits.

Deep neural networks have been extensively researched in the field of document image classification to improve classification performance and have shown excellent results. However, there is little research in this area that addresses the question of how well these models would perform in a real-world environment, where the data the models are confronted with often exhibits various types of noise or distortion. In this work, we present two separate benchmark datasets, namely RVL-CDIP-D and Tobacco3482-D, to evaluate the robustness of existing state-of-the-art document image classifiers to different types of data distortions that are commonly encountered in the real world. The proposed benchmarks are generated by inserting 21 different types of data distortions with varying severity levels into the well-known document datasets RVL-CDIP and Tobacco3482, respectively, which are then used to quantitatively evaluate the impact of the different distortion types on the performance of latest document image classifiers. In doing so, we show that while the higher accuracy models also exhibit relatively higher robustness, they still severely underperform on some specific distortions, with their classification accuracies dropping from ~90% to as low as ~40% in some cases. We also show that some of these high accuracy models perform even worse than the baseline AlexNet model in the presence of distortions, with the relative decline in their accuracy sometimes reaching as high as 300-450% that of AlexNet. The proposed robustness benchmarks are made available to the community and may aid future research in this area.

The authors have revised the circularity of materials, which is important to stimulate circular activity processes. The theoretical part starts with describing the characteristics of the circular activity and the comparison of circular and linear systems in terms of recycling. Later on, the authors examined key elements important for the circularity and the results of an examination of various sectors. The authors formed a correlation matrix and used a dynamic regression model to identify the circular material use rate. The authors suggested a three-level methodology, using it provided a dynamic regression model which could be applied for forecasting the size of circular material use rate in European Union countries. The results show that private investments into recycling and the recycling of electronic waste and the recycling of other municipal waste categories are important in seeking to increase the usage rate of circular materials.

Background: One way to demonstrate the existence of nursing is to develop a nursing theory model through nursing research which can ultimately be implemented in nursing practice. RAM is one of the most frequently used models in guiding nursing research. Roy's Adaptation Model (RAM) is one of the most useful conceptual frameworks that guide nursing practice, direct research, and influence education. Theory-guided nursing practice is fundamental in providing the framework for developing superior and quality nursing care.Objectives: This systematic review aims to critically analyze recent studies using RAM as a conceptual framework to identify the effectiveness of this model in guiding nursing research.Methods: A literature search was conducted on five databases, namely SCOPUS, PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, and SAGEPub. There were no population boundaries and diagnoses involved in the study. The study is a quantitative design focused on publication between 2015-2021. The methodological quality of applying the Cochrane and JBI bias tools. The analysis uses narrative synthesis.Results: 20 studies were found out of 1,315 studies. The research population found is very diverse. The given intervention follows the conceptual framework of RAM. RAM-based interventions effectively overcome the problems experienced by patients and reduce the perceived symptoms and improve the patient's quality of life.Conclusion: The conceptual use of RAM theory in nursing research has been widely reported. RAM-based interventions have a significant impact and have strong evidence-based practice in improving patient health status.

Users on the social networking platform have the freedom to express themselves freely. Towards the same time, this has created a forum for disagreement and hate directed at someone, society, racism, sexual orientation, and so on. Identifying hate online is a challenging task. Researchers from all around the world have contributed major methods for detecting hate speech, but owing to the issue's complexity, there are still many unresolved issues. In this research, we offer a multi-model learning strategy for detecting hate speech on Twitter. We utilised the Kaggle TwitterHate dataset, which had 31962 tweets categorised as binary hate or non-hate, to evaluate our technique. The suggested method is tested using commonly used machine learning classifiers with multi-model technique. Using TF-IDF features, we acquired detection results of 96.29 %, precision of 96%, recall of 96%, and f1-score of 96%.

In many countries, governments have implemented non-pharmaceutical techniques to limit COVID-19 transmission. Restricting human mobility is one of the most common interventions, including lockdown, travel restrictions, working from home, etc. However, due to the strong transmission ability of the virus variants, further rounds of interventions, including a strict lockdown, are not considered as effective as expected. The paper aims to understand how the lockdown policy and pandemics changed human mobility in the real scenario. Here we focus on understanding the mobility changes caused by compliance with restrictions and risk perceptions, using the mobility index from the Google report during three strict lockdown periods in Leeds, the largest city in the county of West Yorkshire, England from March 2020 to March 2021. The research proposed the time-varying z-scores and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to simulate how local people dynamically process and perceive health risk based on multi-dimensional daily COVID-19 reports first. Further modelling highlights exponentially increasing policy non-compliance through the duration of lockdown, probably attributable to factors such as mental anxiety and economic pressures. Finally, the proposed nonlinear regression model examines the mobility changes caused by the population's dynamic risk perceptions and lockdown duration. The case study at Leeds fits data well and shows that the third lockdown policy took effect much slower than the first. At the same time, the negative impact of the epidemic on population mobility decayed 40% in the third lockdown period in contrast with the first lockdown. The risk perception estimation methods could reflect that the local population became increasingly accustomed to the COVID-19 situation, and local people rationally evaluated the risks of COVID in the third lockdown period. The results prove that simulated risk perceptions and policy decay could explain urban mobility behaviour during the mobility well during lockdown periods, which could be a reference for future decision-making processes.

Background. The treatment of coronary stenosis relies on invasive high risk surgical assessment to generate the fractional flow reserve diagnostics index, a ratio of distal to proximal pressures in respect of coronary atherosclerotic plaque causing stenosis. Non-invasive methods are therefore a need of the times. This study proposes an extensible mathematical description of the coronary vasculature that permits rapid estimation of the coronary fractional flow reserve. Methods. By adapting an existing closed loop model of human coronary blood flow, the effects of large vessel stenosis and microvascular disease on fractional flow reserve were quantified. Several simula-tions generated flow and pressure information which was used to compute fractional flow re-serve under a spectrum of conditions including focal stenosis, diffuse stenosis, and microvascular disease. Sensitivity analysis stratified the influence of model parameters on the index. The model was simulated as coupled non-linear ordinary differential equations and numerically solved us-ing an implicit higher order method. Results. Large vessel stenosis affected fractional flow re-serve. The model predicts that the presence, rather than severity, of microvascular disease affect coronary flow deleteriously. Sensitivity analysis revealed that heart rate may not affect the index. Conclusions. The model provides a computationally inexpensive instrument for future in silico coronary blood flow investigations as well as clinical-imaging decision making. A combination of focal and diffuse stenosis appears to be essential in reducing the index. In addition to pressure measurements in the large epicardial vessels, diagnosis of microvascular disease is essential. The independence of the index with respect to heart rate suggests that computationally inexpensive steady state simulations may provide sufficient information to reliably compute the index.

This study examined the link between tax revenue components and economic growth in South Africa, utilizing time series data for the period of 22 years. The stationarity of the variables was established using the Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test, and the existence of long-run and short-run equilibrium conditions was tested using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. As a proxy for economic growth, the study used the real GDP growth rate as the dependent variable, with company income tax, personal income tax, taxes on international trade and transactions, taxes on income, profits, and capital gains tax, foreign direct investment, inflation, and gross savings as the independent variables. According to the PP findings, none of the variables are integrated at a higher order than one, i.e. (1). All variables are found to be cointegrated, and all explanatory variables have a long-run link with economic growth. According to the ARDL findings, company income tax, personal income tax, and taxes on international trade and transactions all have a positive long-run and short-run link with economic growth, whereas capital gain tax, foreign direct investment, and gross savings all have a negative long-run and short-run link with economic growth. The long-run coefficient is negatively related to RGDP, while the short-run coefficient revealed a positive link between inflation and economic growth, among other findings. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation are not present in our model, according to diagnostic tests. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ values indicate that the model is structurally sound.

This paper examines certain implications from the literature on Tiebout’s model of local gov-ernment service provision, particularly Hamilton’s extension of the model to include local control of land use and property taxation. Our empirical analysis focuses on the use of fiscal zoning to lower property tax rates, a topic that has not been addressed in the extensive Tiebout literature. Using data for over 100 municipalities in the Miami, Florida, metropolitan area, we specify property tax rates as a function of fiscal zoning measures, other municipal characteristics, and tax mimicking. We conclude that single-family zoning is by far the most important variable ex-plaining municipal property tax rates.

Clinicians are often very sceptical about applying automatic image processing approaches, especially deep learning based methods, in practice. One main reason for this is the black-box nature of these approaches and the inherent problem of missing insights of the automatically derived decisions. In order to increase trust in these methods, this paper presents approaches that help to interpret and explain the results of deep learning algorithms by depicting the anatomical areas which influence the decision of the algorithm most. Moreover, this research presents a unified framework, TorchEsegeta, for applying various interpretability and explainability techniques for deep learning models and generate visual interpretations and explanations for clinicians to corroborate their clinical findings. In addition, this will aid in gaining confidence in such methods. The framework builds on existing interpretability and explainability techniques that are currently focusing on classification models, extending them to segmentation tasks. In addition, these methods have been adapted to 3D models for volumetric analysis. The proposed framework provides methods to quantitatively compare visual explanations using infidelity and sensitivity metrics. This framework can be used by data scientists to perform post-hoc interpretations and explanations of their models, develop more explainable tools and present the findings to clinicians to increase their faith in such models. The proposed framework was evaluated based on a use case scenario of vessel segmentation models trained on Time-of-fight (TOF) Magnetic Resonance Angiogram (MRA) images of the human brain. Quantitative and qualitative results of a comparative study of different models and interpretability methods are presented. Furthermore, this paper provides an extensive overview of several existing interpretability and explainability methods.

Poor households are more likely less resilient under climate change, risks of productive assets, social-related shocks, and decline of land productivity. The ability to deal with household resilience against poverty under the uncertain condition of risk is limited in the highlands of Ethiopia. The study aims to identify determinants of household resilience to livelihood insecurity under the crop-livestock mixed farming systems in Goncha district, Northwest highlands of Ethiopia. Primary data were collected by conducting face-to-face interviews among 280 households using structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics, Kruskal-Wallis test and structural equation modeling were used to analyse the data. The results disclosed that sustainable management of the farming systems, cultivation of more fertile farmland, saving performance, diversification of income-earning activities, intensification of livestock husbandry practices, access to irrigation, and familiarity with practical technologies were found to be significant determinants at p<0.001 to household resilience of smallholder farmers. Social network development and tree plantation were explained household resilience to livelihood insecurity at P<0.01 and P<0.1 significant levels, respectively. The study concluded that scaling up sustainable management of the farming system and practical technologies, enhancing saving behavior, promoting income diversification, and intensifying agroforestry are significant for household resilience to livelihood insecurity of smallholders across agro-ecologies.

Dry powder inhalers are used by a large number of patients worldwide to treat respiratory diseases. The objective of this work is to experimentally investigate changes in aerosol particle diameter and particle number concentration of pharmaceutical aerosols generated by five dry powder inhalers under realistic inhalation and exhalation conditions. The active respiratory system model (xPULM™) was used as a model of the human respiratory system and to simulate a patient undergoing inhalation therapy. A mechanical upper airway model was developed, manufactured and introduced as a part of the xPULM™ to represent the human upper respiratory tract with high fidelity. Integration of optical aerosol spectrometry technique into the setup allowed for evaluation of pharmaceutical aerosols. The results show that the upper airway model increases the resistance of the overall system and act as a filter for bigger particles (>3 µm). Furthermore, there is a significant difference (p < 0.05) in mean particle diameter between inhaled and exhaled particles with the majority of the particles depositing in the lung. The minimum deposition is reached for particle size of 0.5 µm. The mean particle number concentrations exhaled are 2.94% (BreezHaler®), 2.66% (Diskus®), 10.24% (Ellipta®) 2.13% (HandiHaler®) and 6.22% (Turbohaler®). In conclusion, the xPULM™ active respiratory system model is a viable option for studying interactions of pharmaceutical aerosols and the respiratory tract in terms of applicable deposition mechanisms. The model can support the reduction of animal experimentation in aerosol research and provide an alternative to experiments with human subjects.

The current study was planned to simulate runoff due to the snowmelt in the Lidder River catchment of Himalayan region under climate change scenarios. A basic degree-day model, Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) was utilized to assess the hydrological consequences of change in climate. The SRM model performance during the calibration and validation was assessed using volume difference (Dv) and coefficient of determination (R2). The Dv was found as 11.7, -10.1, -11.8, 1.96, and 8.6 during 2009-2014, respectively, while the R2 is 0.96, 0.92, 0.95, 0.90, and 0.94, respectively. The Dv and R2 values indicating that the simulated snowmelt runoff has a close agreement with the observed value. The simulated findings were also assessed under the different scenarios of climate change: a) increases in precipitation by +20 %, b) temperature rise of +2 °C, and c) temperature rise of +2 °C with a 20 % increase in snow cover. In scenario "b", the simulated results showed that runoff increased by 53 % in summer (April–September). In contrast, the projected increased discharge for scenarios "a" and "c" was 37 % and 67 %, respectively. In high elevation data-scarce mountain environments, the SRM is efficient in forecasting future water supplies due to the snowmelt runoff.

The aroused quest to reduce the delay at interconnect level is the main urge of this paper to come across a configuration of Carbon Nanotube (CNT) bundle namely squarely packed bundle of composite CNTs. The approach, demonstrated in this paper, adapts the composite bundle to adopt for high speed Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) interconnect with technology sizing down. To reduce the delay of the proposed configuration of composite CNT bundle, the behavioral change of Resistance (R), Inductance (L) and Capacitance (C) has been observed with respect to both width of the bundle and diameter of the CNTs in the bundle. Consequently, the performance of the modified bundle configuration is compared with previously developed configuration namely squarely packed bundle of dimorphic MWCNTs in terms of propagation delay and crosstalk delay at local, semiglobal and global level interconnect. The proposed bundle configuration is ultimately enacted as better one for 32nmand 16nmtechnology node and suitable for 7nmas well.

The on-state voltage of MOSFETs is a convenient and powerful temperature-sensitive electric parameter (TSEP) to determine the junction temperature, thus enabling device monitoring, protection, diagnostics and prognostics. The main hurdle in the use of the on-state voltage as a TSEP is the per-device characterization procedure, to be carried out in a controlled environment, with high costs. In this paper we compare two novel techniques for MOSFET junction temperature estimation: controlled shoot-through and direct heating by resistive heaters embedded in two Kapton (polyimide) films. Both allow in-place characterization of the TSEP curve with the device mounted in its final circuit and assembly, including the working heat sink. The two methods are also validated against the conventional procedure in a thermal chamber.

Air traffic congestion is caused by the unbalance between increasing traffic demand and saturating capacity. Flight delay not only causes huge economical lost, but also has very negative environmental impact in the whole air transportation system. In order to identify the impact of extended TMA on airport capacity, an airspace capacity assessment method based on augmented cell transmission model was proposed. Firstly, the airspace structure was modeled with points, segments, layers, and cells. Secondly, mixed integer linear programming model was built up with maximum throughput or capacity as the objective function. Finally, genetic algorithm was used to find the optimal result, and the results were validated by comparing with the fast-time simulation results generated by total airspace and airport modeler (TAAM) software. It is found that the proposed method could achieve a relatively accurate result in a much affordable and fast way. The numerical results could be very helpful for air traffic controllers to analyze the dynamic traffic flow entering and exiting TMA, so as to make decisions via reasonable analysis and do planning in advance by referring to the airport capacity.

Based on the 5.7-magnitude earthquake that stroke Songyuan (China) and 172 groups of liquefaction data collected in mainland China, the hyperbolic liquefaction discriminant formula originally proposed by Sun Rui was revised, and a new formula for the liquefaction of sand was put forward. Groups of data derived from the Bachu earthquake in Xinjiang and an earthquake that occurred in New Zealand (47 and 195 groups, respectively) were used to carry out a back-judgment test, then, the results were compared with those of the existing standard method. Overall, the results showed that the new formula for hyperbolic liquefaction discrimination compensates for the conservative liquefaction discrimination of the older formula; moreover, it has a good applicability to different intensities, groundwater levels, and the deep sand layer of the Songyuan site, reflected by a more balanced success rate. Therefore, combining the existing liquefaction discrimination methods and the research results of discrimination, it is necessary to establish a suitable regional identification method through the continuous accumulation of liquefaction data and expanding database.

A rapid-response Lagrangian model for simulating the transport of a chemical pollutant in the Arabian/Persian Guls is described. The model is well suited to provide a fast response after an emergency due to an accident or a deliberate spill. Baroclinic circulation was obtained from HYCOM ocean model and tides were calculated using a barotropic model. The interactions of pollutants with sediments (uptake/release processes) were described using a dynamic approach based on kinetic transfer coefficients and a stochastic numerical method. Some examples of model applications are shown.

This study investigated the ability of a HYDRUS 1D model for predicting the vertical distribution of potassium iodine (200 ppm) in soil columns after amendment with five different common remediation materials (gypsum, lime, fly ash, charcoal and sawdust) at a rate of 2.5% (w/w), relative to an unamended control soil. Results shows that relative to the unamended soil, iodine leaching was decreased by all amendments but that the magnitude of the decreases varied with the soil amendment applied. Iodine content was highest in the upper layer of the soil columns and decreased progressively with soil depth. The model was evaluated via comparison of the model simulated values with measured values from the soil column studies. The results showed that the HYDRUS 1D model efficiency was near to 1, indicating that the stimulated results were near to the measured values. Therefore, this study showed that iodine leaching through a soil could be ascertained well using a HYDRUS 1D model. The model over predicted iodine leaching, resulting to a weak correspondence between the simulated and the measured results for iodine leaching. This suggests that the HYDRUS-1D model does not explain accurately different organic and inorganic amended soil and the preferential flow that occurs in these columns. This may be due to the fact that Freundlich isotherm, which is part of the transport equations, does not sufficiently describe the mechanism of iodine adsorption onto the soil particles. This study would help to select amendments for an effective management strategy to reduce exogenous iodine losses from agro-ecosystems. This would also improve understanding of iodine transport in soil profile.

Formaldehyde (HCHO) is one of the most important carcinogenic air contaminants. However, the lack of global surface concentration of HCHO monitoring is currently hindering research on outdoor HCHO pollution. Traditional methods are either restricted to small areas or data- demanding for a global scale of research. To alleviate this issue, we adopted neural networks to estimate surface HCHO concentration with confidence intervals in 2019, where HCHO vertical column density data from TROPOMI, in-situ data from HAPs (harmful air pollutants) monitoring network and ATom mission are utilized. Our result shows that the global surface HCHO average concentration is 2.30 μg/m3. Furthermore, in terms of regions, the concentration in Amazon Basin, Northern China, South-east Asia, Bay of Bengal, Central and Western Africa are among the highest. The results from our study provides a first dataset of the global surface HCHO concentration. In addition, the derived confidence interval of surface HCHO concentration adds an extra layer for the confidence to our results. As a pioneer work in adopting confidence interval estimation into AI-driven atmospheric pollutant research and the first global HCHO surface distribution dataset, our paper will pave the way for the rigorous study on global ambient HCHO health risk and economic loss, thus providing a basis for pollutant controlling policies worldwide.

Beyond the usual ferromagnetic and paramagnetic phases present in spin systems, the usual q-state clock model, presents an intermediate vortex state when the number of possible orientations q for the system is equal to 5 or larger. Such vortex states give rise to the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) phase present up to the XY model in the limit q→∞. Based on information theory, we present here an analysis of the classical order parameters plus new short-range parameters defined here. Thus, we show that even using the first nearest neighbors spin-spin correlations only, it is possible to distinguish the two transitions presented by this system for q greater than or equal to 5. Moreover, the appearance at relatively low temperature and disappearance of the BKT phase at a rather fix higher temperature is univocally determined by the short-range interactions recognized by the information content of classical and new parameters.

Vehicle driveability is one of the important vehicle attributes in range-extender electric vehicles due to the electric motor torque characteristics at low-speed events. The process of validating and rectifying vehicle driveability attributes is typically utilised by a physical vehicle prototype that can be expensive and required several design iterations. In this paper, a model-based energy method to assess vehicle driveability is presented based on a high-fidelity 49 degree-of-freedom powertrain and vehicle systems. Multibody dynamics components were built according to their true centre of gravity relative to the vehicle datum for providing an accurate system interaction. The work covered a frequency at less than 20 Hz. The results that consisted of the component frequency domination are structured and examined to identify the low-frequency sensitivity based on different operating parameters such as a road surface coefficient. An energy path technique was also implemented on the dominant component by decoupling its compliances to study the effect on the vehicle driveability and low-frequency response. The outcomes of the research provided a good understanding of the interaction across the sub-systems levels. The powertrain rubber mounts were the dominant components that controlled the low-frequency contents (< 15.33 Hz) and can change the vehicle driveability quality.

Background: Superspreading events are important drivers of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. By analyzing two outbreaks associated with choir rehearsals in March 2020, we demonstrate the risk of indoor, long-range (LR) transmission and singing, to help prevent similar outbreaks. Methods: We conducted two retrospective cohort studies and obtained demographic, clinical, laboratory and contact data, performed SARS-CoV-2 serology, whole genome sequencing (WGS), calculated LR transmission probabilities, measured particle emissions of selected choir members, and calculated particle air concentrations and inhalation doses.Results: We included 65 (84%) and 42 (100%) members of choirs 1 and 2, respectively. WGS confirmed strain identity in both choirs and the primary case of choir 1 (transmitting presymptomatically). Particle emission rate when singing was 7 times higher compared to talking. In choir 1, the median concentration of primary cases’ emitted particles was 8 times higher, exposure at least 30 minutes longer and room volume smaller than in choir 2, resulting in markedly different estimated probabilities for LR transmission (median: 89% vs. 18%, 95%CI: 80-95% vs. 6-36%). Observed AR in choir 1 (89%) was significantly higher than in choir 2 (24%). According to a risk model, first transmission in choir 1 occurred likely after 7 minutes of singing. The number of inhaled particles emitted by an infectious case, sufficient to infect 50% of exposed, was calculated to 1039-2883 particles (95%CI).Conclusions: Even in large rooms, singing of an infectious person may lead to secondary infections through LR exposure within minutes. Given the potential for presymptomatic infectiousness, greatest caution is required wherever aerosols can accumulate.

Abstract: To describe the feeder topology and information exchange between intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) for Internet of Things (IoT), it is necessary to extend IEC 61850 and add a logical model. The feeder model described in IEC 61970 is then extended in IEC 61850 to serve as a container for the equipment along the distribution line. For the physical connections in the electrical equipment, both terminal and connectivity node logical models are added. Taking logical node XCBR as the example, its attributes for the terminals are added to the electrical equipment. The logical node LCNN is then further added in order to describe the connectivity node. By next adding the logical node LTPN to describe the topological node, and FTPA to describe the results of the topology analysis, we can efficiently describe the topology analysis results. Based on these new logical nodes, the exchange of topology information between intelligent terminals no longer relies on configuration files, but only requires logical nodes. Through the above expansion, the topology description and information exchange of medium and low voltage feeders are realized.

Dynamical system tools offer a complementary approach to detailed biophysical seizure modeling, with a high potential for clinical applications. This review describes the theoretical framework that provides a basis for theorizing certain properties of seizures and for their classification according to their dynamical properties at onset and offset. We describe various modeling approaches spanning different scales, from single neurons to large-scale networks. This narrative review provides an accessible overview of this field, including non-exhaustive examples of key recent works.

The virus SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in numerous modelling approaches arising rapidly to understand the spread of the disease COVID-19 and to plan for future interventions. Herein, we present an SEIR model with a spatial spread component as well as four infectious compartments to account for the variety of symptom levels and transmission rate. The model takes into account the pattern of spatial vulnerability in South Africa through a vulnerability index that is based on socioeconomic and health susceptibility characteristics. Another spatially relevant factor in this context is level of mobility throughout. The thesis of this study is that without the contextual spatial spread modelling, the heterogeneity in COVID-19 prevalence in the South African setting would not be captured. The model is illustrated on South African COVID-19 case counts and hospitalisations.

This research aims to identify the role of the Dyson model for strategic development in achieving strategic success, and the starting point of the research was the following main question: What is the role of the Dyson model in achieving success?The research was applied in the field in the departments of the Baghdad Municipality, where the examination list was relied upon, which included a set of questions that the senior and middle leaders in the Baghdad Municipality answered, and it was the main means by which the information related to the field of research was collected, and the checklist included two variables and three dimensions From each variable, as each dimension included four questions that express indicators that revolve around one of the research hypotheses, and the case study methodology was used, which defined its path and steps, collected and analyzed field data, and linked it to its theoretical framework, in order to reach To achieve the goal of completing this research, and through analyzing, interpreting and discussing the results, the most important results were drawn up: It was found that the principle of motivation within the departments of Baghdad Municipality does not exist and this affects the employees who do not receive it from the higher leaders in their departments, and this shows that the leaderships in The Municipality of Baghdad do not have the skills and experience. Baghdad Municipality seeks to work alone and not to involve employees who have experiences and skills and strive to achieve development in their departments, and this is what the community members expressed. Among them and poor business completion in their departments.

Shales are well known for their strong anisotrophic properties. The classical Athy’s model on the exponential porosity reduction with the depth commonly uses based on localities only. Shale compaction curve affects the results of the basin modeling as it is important input data, thus the standard compaction curve of shales needs to be established. This study provided a new data and complies available data of Thailand shales to propose the new empirical relationship among porosity, burial depth, and geological age. The numerical data of the geological time were estimated by the application from the relationship of velocity and depth in each geological ages. The variation of the Thailand shale data due to the different geological ages was found in this study. Finally, the standard curve of shale compaction proposed by Puttiwongrak et al. [9] was examined and confirmed by this research findings.

Significant progress has been made in understanding the computational and neural architecture that mediates eye and hand movements made in isolation. However, less is known about the mechanisms that control these movements when they are coordinated. Here, we outline our computational approaches using accumulation-to-threshold and race-to-threshold models to elucidate the mechanisms that initiate and inhibit these movements. We suggest that, depending on the behavioral context, the initiation and inhibition of coordinated eye-hand movements can operate in two modes- coupled and decoupled. The coupled-mode operates when the task context requires a tight coupling between the effectors; a common command initiates both effectors, and a unitary inhibitory process is responsible for stopping them. Conversely, the decoupled mode operates when the task context demands weaker coupling between the effectors; separate commands initiate the eye and hand, and separate inhibitory processes are responsible for stopping them. We hypothesize that higher-order control processes assess the behavioral context and choose the most appropriate mode. This computational architecture can explain heterogeneous results observed across many studies that have investigated the control of coordinated eye-hand movements and may also serve as a general framework to understand the control of complex multi-effector movements.

Soils provide important regulating ecosystem services and have crucial implications for human well-being and environmental conservation. However, soil degradation and particularly soil erosion jeopardize the maintenance and existence of these services. This study explores the spatio-temporal relationships of soil erosion to understand the distribution patterns of sediment retention services in mainland Portugal. Based on Corine Land Cover maps from 1990 to 2018, the InVEST Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) model was used to evaluate the influence of sediment dynamics for soil and water conservation. Spatial differences in the sediment retention levels were observed within the NUTS III boundaries, showing which areas are more vulnerable to soil erosion processes. Results indicated that the Region of Leiria, Douro and the coastal regions have decreased importantly sediment retention capacity over the years. However, in most of the territory (77.52%) changes in sediment retention were little or not important (i.e., less than 5%). The statistical validation of the model proved the consistency of the results, highlighting the usefulness of this methodology to analyse the state of soil erosion in the country. These findings can be relevant to support strategies for more efficient land use planning regarding soil erosion mitigation practices.

The first attempt to control and mitigate an epidemic outbreak caused by a previously unknown virus occurs primarily via non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which since the early days of 2020 caused the COVID-19 pandemic, NPIs aimed at reducing transmission enabling contacts between individuals. The effectiveness of contact reduction measures directly correlates with the number of individuals adhering to such measures. Here, we illustrate by means of a very simple compartmental model how partial noncompliance with NPIs can prevent these from stopping the spread of an epidemic.

The frame construction of an apartment complex that consists of multiple buildings encounters various uncertainties, owing to the complex relationships among units of work. Currently, the period of such a construction is calculated based on the number of floors of the highest building in the complex. This study quantitatively analyzes an apartment frame construction period using a queue model and evaluates the validity of the estimated period. In this regard, a methodology is proposed for analyzing the construction period by applying the concept of a customer and a server. A case study on the duration of an apartment frame construction is conducted with Korea Land and Housing Corporation, which has supplied the largest number of apartments in South Korea. It was found that the stable state of a queue system was observed when the rate of server utilization was applied to the basement and aboveground floors. However, a stable state was not reached on the ground floor. This study includes non-working days in its calculation and quantitatively analyzes uncertainty factors during construction. Therefore, the findings can be practically utilized to quantitatively plan the durations of work units in an apartment frame construction.

Based on comprehensible non-parametric methods, estimates of crucial parameters that characterise the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on the German epidemic are presented. Where appropriate, the estimates for Germany are compared with the results for seven other countries (FR, IT, US, UK, ES, CH, BR) to get an idea of the breadth of applicability and a relational understanding. Thereby, only prevalence data of daily reported new counts of diagnosed cases and fatalities provided by the Johns Hopkins University are used. Drawing on uncertain a priori knowledge is avoided. Specifically, we present estimates resulting from delay-time correlations for the duration from diagnosis to death being 13 days for Germany and Switzerland. The delay-time correlation applied to time series from other countries exhibit less pronounced peaks suggesting high variabilities for the corresponding time-to-death durations. With respect to the German data, the two time series of new cases and fatalities exhibit a strong coherence within the frequency range of interest, which backs our findings. Furthermore, based on the knowledge of this time lag between diagnoses and deaths, properly delayed asymptotic as well as instantaneous fatality-case ratios are calculated having superiority compared to the commonly published case-fatality rate. The temporal median of the instantaneous fatality-case ratio with proper delay of 13-days between cases and deaths for Germany turns out to be 0.02. Time courses of asymptotic fatality-case ratios are presented for other countries which substantially differ during the first half of the pandemic, however, converge to a narrow range with standard deviation 0.57% and mean 2.4%. Additionally, the time courses of instantaneous fatality-case ratios with optimal delay for the 8 exemplarily chosen countries are calculated and compared by means of the temporal medians. Similarly to the asymptotic fatality-case ratios, the differences are much smaller than expected from mass media reports. The basic reproduction number, R₀, for Germany is estimated to be between 2.4 and 3.4. The uncertainty stems from uncertain knowledge of the generation time. A delay autocorrelation shows resonances at about 4 days and 7 days, where the latter resonance is at least partially attributable to the sampling process with weekly periodicity. The calculation of the basic reproduction number is based on an evaluation of cumulative numbers of cases yielding time-dependent doubling times as an intermediate step. This allows to infer to the reproduction number during the early phase of onset of the epidemic. In a second approach, the instantaneous reproduction number is derived from the incident (counts of new) cases and allows, in contrast to the first version, to infer to the temporal behaviour of the reproduction number during the later epidemic course. The time course of the reproduction number is compared to an alternative control measure given by the per capita growth, which largely confirms the conclusions drawn from the reproduction number. To conclude, by avoiding complicated parametric models we provide insights into basic features of the COVID-19 epidemic in an utmost transparent and comprehensible way. The perhaps most striking insight is that the fatality-case ratios do not differ between countries as much as previously suspected.

This paper focuses on the physical attributes of land that intrinsically limit land use and possibly affect land values. In particular, we investigate if the slope of a land does decrease its price and investigate the role of land slope in forming more reliable constant-quality land price indices and aggregate house price indices. We find that, while land slopes do decrease the land price per unit, they have a small effect on the quality-adjusted land price indices in selected neighborhoods in Auckland, New Zealand, where sloped terrain is common.

Long-term continuous time series of SO2 emissions are considered critical elements of both volcano monitoring and basic research into processes within magmatic systems. One highly successful framework for computing these fluxes involves reconstructing a representative time-averaged SO2 plume from which to estimate the SO2 source flux. Previous methods within this framework have used ancillary wind datasets from reanalysis or numerical weather prediction (NWP) to construct the mean plume and then again as a constrained parameter in the fitting. Additionally, traditional SO2 datasets from ultraviolet (UV) sensors lack altitude information which must be assumed to correctly calibrate the SO2 data and to capture the appropriate NWP wind level which can be a significant source of error. We have made novel modifications to this framework which do not rely on prior knowledge of the winds and therefore do not inherit errors associated with NWP winds. To perform the plume rotation, we modify a rudimentary computer vision algorithm designed for object detection in medical imaging to detect plume-like objects in gridded SO2 data. We then fit a solution to the general time-averaged dispersion of SO2 from a point source. We demonstrate these techniques using SO2 data generated by a newly developed probabilistic layer height and column loading algorithm designed for the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), a hyperspectral infrared sensor aboard the Joint Polar Satellite System’s Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 satellites. This SO2 data source is best suited to flux estimates at high-latitude volcanoes and at low-latitude, but high-altitude volcanoes. Of particular importance, IR SO2 data can fill an important data gap in the UV-based record: estimating SO2 emissions from high-latitude volcanoes through the polar winters when there is insufficient solar backscatter for UV sensors to be used.

The simplest elasticity model of foundation underlying a slender beam under flexure was conceived by Winkler, requiring local proportionality between soil reactions and beam deflection. Such an approach leads to well-posed elastostatic and elastodynamic problems, but, as highlighted by Wieghardt, it provides elastic responses which are not technically significant for a wide variety of engineering applications. Thus, Winkler's model was replaced by Wieghardt himself by assuming that the beam deflection is the convolution integral between soil reaction field and an averaging kernel. Due to conflict between constitutive and kinematic compatibility requirements, the corresponding elastic problem of an inflected beam resting on Wieghardt foundation results to be ill-posed. Modifications of the original Wieghardt model were proposed by introducing fictitious boundary concentrated forces of constitutive type, which are physically questionable, being significantly influenced on prescribed kinematic boundary conditions. Inherent difficulties and issues are overcome in the present research using a displacement-driven nonlocal integral strategy got by swapping input and output fields involved in Wieghardt's original formulation. That is, nonlocal soil reaction fields are output of integral convolutions of beam deflection fields with an averaging kernel. Equipping the displacement-driven nonlocal integral law with the bi-exponential averaging kernel, an equivalent nonlocal differential problem, supplemented with non-standard constitutive boundary conditions involving nonlocal soil reactions, is established. As a key implication, the integro-differential equations governing the elastostatic problem of an inflected elastic slender beam resting on displacement-driven nonlocal integral foundation are replaced with much simpler differential equations supplemented with kinematic, static and new constitutive boundary conditions. The proposed nonlocal approach is illustrated by examining and analytically solving exemplar problems of structural engineering. Benchmark solutions for numerical analyses are also detected.

The era of globalization of the industrial revolution 4.0 was also marked by rapid economic, social, scientific, and technological developments. Currently, the company was demanded to maximize all its potential to compete with other companies. For this reason, it was hoped that companies could understand the importance of knowledge management-based intellectual capital through outreach, externalization, internalization, and combinations that had implications for improving employee performance and competency. This study was to identify and describe the enhancement of performance and competency-based on the optimization of the intellectual capital model in terms of critical thinking analysis. This study used a qualitative approach with critical thinking analysis through literature study methods. The findings results of this study were to improve performance and competency were the basic measurement models of intellectual capital, new intellectual capital measurement models in empirical studies, intellectual capital measurement models with bottlenecks, and environmental-based intellectual capital models. This study concluded that intellectual capital measurement should be determined as accumulation and interpretation in the proposed model for a company that was an applied subject with a qualitative intellectual capital index system, to provide a good tool for companies to managed intellectual capital.

Climate justice as a commons is conceived as the intertemporal climate equity and equal- ity exchange amongst generations. Sustainability, intended as the interplay amongst the economy, the society, the environment, and the governance, is essential to forge the climate justice theoretical framework. On this base, the study attempts to model intertemporal choice amongst generations in these four domains, making use of an over- lapping generations (OLG) model. The proxies detected are GDP growth (economy), environmental quality (environment), and labor growth, and environmental investment (society) as assumptions. The governance dimension is captured by the di¤erence in wealth between young and old generations. The work aims at replying to the follow- ing research question: Which are the conditions for sustainable development such that climate justice holds? The intra-intergenerational exchange is de…ned in two periods, while the individual provides their preferred economic and environmental choice mix as consumption-saving. This study shows that sustainable growth is achievable only with increased young e¤ort and less leisure and consumption.

The novelty of 21st-century physics is the development of the “superfluid quantum vacuum” model, also named “superfluid quantum space” SQS. This SQS is replacing space-time as the fundamental arena of the universe. It also represents the model that has the potential of unifying four fundamental forces of the universe. SQS in this article is represented as the time-invariant fundamental field of the universe where time is merely the duration of material changes.

The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modelling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a simple mathematical model of epidemic outbreaks, yet for decades it evaded the efforts of the community to derive explicit solution. The present work demonstrates that this is a non-trivial task. Notably, it is proven that the explicit solution of the model requires the introduction of a new transcendental special function, related to the Wright's Omega function. The present manuscript reports new analytical results and numerical routines suitable for parametric estimation of the SIR model. The manuscript introduces iterative algorithms approximating the incidence variable, which allows for estimation of the model parameters from the numbers of observed cases. The numerical approach is exemplified with data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) for several European countries in the period Jan 2020 -- Jun 2020.

In this paper, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method has been used to simulate the gas flow and the catalytic hydrogenation process of the C-2 hydrogenation adiabatic reactor in a practical ethylene production unit of a chemical plant. The laminar finite-rate model was used for the chemical reaction model. The standard two-equation model was used for the turbulence model. The exponent-function kinetic model was used for the reaction dynamics model. The simulation results were in good agreement with the actual industrial data obtained from the C-2 hydrogenation reactor, and the distributions of reaction parameters such as temperature and component concentrations in the reactor were further analyzed. Based on the validated CFD models, the structure and operating conditions of the reactor, as well as hydrogen load distribution ratios, are simulated for comparing the comprehensive performance metrics of ethylene selectivity and acetylene conversion rate; as a result, we can obtain the optimal temperature of 312 K, the optimal hydrogen/acetylene ratio of 0.10 as well as the optimal hydrogen load distribution ratio of 4:4:2, and the diameter/height ratio exerts a marginal effect on the selectivity, conversion rate and harmonic mean of the reactor.

Understanding the strength of the associations between perceived risk and individuals’ behavioral intentions to protect their health is important for determining appropriate risk communication strategies in communities impacted by lead contamination. We conducted a survey within communities of northern Idaho, USA (n = 306) near a Superfund megasite with legacy mining contamination. We empirically test a theoretical model based on the Health Belief Model. Survey respondents had higher intentions to practice health protective behaviors when they perceived the risk of lead contamination as severe, recognized the benefits of health protective behaviors, and considered the risks of lead contamination. Women reported higher behavioral intentions than men, but age and mining affiliation did not have an association. Survey comments indicated that perceptions about the long-term environmental remediation in the region influenced risk perceptions. Understanding risk perceptions, behavioral intentions, and related factors can aid public health agencies in tailoring risk communication for increasing protective behaviors in mining-impacted communities internationally.

We present a class of efficient parametric closure models for 1D stochastic Burgers equations. Casting it as statistical learning of the flow map, we derive the parametric form by representing the unresolved high wavenumber Fourier modes as functionals of the resolved variables’ trajectory. The reduced models are nonlinear autoregression (NAR) time series models, with coefficients estimated from data by least squares. The NAR models can accurately reproduce the energy spectrum, the invariant densities, and the autocorrelations. Taking advantage of the simplicity of the NAR models, we investigate maximal and optimal space-time reduction. Reduction in space dimension is unlimited, and NAR models with two Fourier modes can perform well. The NAR model’s stability limits time reduction, with a maximal time step smaller than that of the K-mode Galerkin system. We report a potential criterion for optimal space-time reduction: the NAR models achieve minimal relative error in the energy spectrum at the time step where the K-mode Galerkin system’s mean CFL number agrees with the full model’s.

For more than 70 years, biologists and biophysicists have been trying to unravel the mystery that exists regarding the saltatory conduction of so-called myelinated neurons. Albert Einstein used the train metaphor to explain the theory of relativity. It is possible to use a similar metaphor to better understand this transient functioning of the neuron: the action potential. We will, once again, use a train to demonstrate unequivocally that the action potential does not jump from node of Ranvier to node of Ranvier (noR) as we thought it would. It is possible to describe that the neuron uses an elegant method to increase the speed of transmission of the neural message. It is also important to conclude that this increase in speed, contrary to the common idea, has a certain energy cost that is proportional to speed and in accordance with thermodynamics.

In the present work, we evaluate the prediction capability of six Pedotransfer functions (PTFs), reported in the literature, for the saturated hydraulic conductivity estimations (Ks). We used a database with 900 measured samples obtained from the Irrigation District 023, in San Juan del Rio, Queretaro, Mexico. Additionally, six new PTFs were construct for Ks from clay percentage, bulk density and saturation water content data. The results show, for the evaluated models, that one model present an overestimation for Ks>0.5 cm h-1 values, three models have a underestimation for Ks>1.0 cm h-1 and two models have a good correlation (R2>0.98) but are necessary more than three parameters. Nevertheless, the last two models requires from three to four parameters in order to get the optimization. By other hand, the models proposed in this work have a similar correlation with a less number of parameters: the fit is seen to be much better than using the existing ones, achieving a correlation of R2 = 0.9822 with only one variable and a R2 = 0.9901 when we use two.

Marketing is one of the important stages, the decisive factor affecting the success of production and business activities of every business. Therefore, marketing is considered to be the first and most important stage in the process of introducing, bringing products to market and branding of businesses, especially in the period when the disease situation is taking place very complicated worldwide. This study provides both qualitative and quantitative results for the following research objectives. Firstly, the study will assess the situation and analyze the appropriateness of marketing models in the current market situation trend. Secondly, the study proposes an approach in building a new type of marketing model, which is 3D web-based marketing applied in e-commerce to support the modeling of enterprise products in the form of Interactive 3D products are similar to real products. Thirdly, testing and evaluating 3D e-commerce web marketing model at Truong Hai Auto Showroom, Thai Nguyen City branch. This study also proposes a number of solutions for the research and deployment of 3D web marketing model application for businesses in the current market situation.

Service pricing is a bottleneck in the development of innovation services, as it is the issue of most concern between the suppliers and demanders. In this paper, a negotiation pricing model that is based on the multiobjective genetic algorithm is developed for innovation service pricing. Regarding the service pricing process as a multiobjective problem, the objective functions, which include the service price, service efficiency, and service quality, for suppliers and demanders are constructed. As the solution of a multiobjective problem is typically a series of alternatives, another negotiation process is necessary for determining the final decision. A learning strategy is adopted during the negotiation process to simulate reality. Finally, the model is implemented for an innovation service transaction, the objective of which is to identify the optimal price plan. The results demonstrate that the model can provide quantitative decision support for the pricing of an innovation service and ultimately yield a win-win result for both the supplier and demander of the innovation service. Furthermore, the influence of the parameters during the negotiation process is analyzed in detail. The effects of the learning strategy on accelerating the negotiation process, as well as the chosen of reasonable parameters are given.

There are uncertainties associated with every phase of the stock assessment process, ranging from the collection of data, assessment model choice, model assumptions and interpretation of risk to the implementation of management advice. The dynamics of fish populations are complex, and our incomplete understanding of those dynamics (and limited observations of important mechanisms) necessitate that models are simpler than nature. The aim is for the model to capture enough of the dynamics to accurately estimate trends and abundance and to provide advice to managers about sustainable harvests. The \textit{status quo} approach to assessment modelling has been to identify the `best' model, based on diagnostics and model selection criteria, and to generate advice from that model, mostly ignoring advice from other model configurations regardless of how closely they performed relative to the chosen model. We review the suitability of the ensemble modelling paradigm to more fully capture uncertainty in stock assessment model building and the provision of advice. We recommend further research to evaluate potential gains in modelling performance and advice from the use of ensemble modelling, while also suggesting revisions to the formal process for reviewing models and providing advice to management bodies.

The corrected mechanism model of battery voltammetric function is helpful to guide the development and application of battery. There are two scientific issues that need to be answered: First, how many mechanisms do batteries have; Second, how to establish the mechanism model separately under the overlapping of these mechanisms. Volt-ampere characteristics of both linear state and nonlinear state exist; the monotonic decreasing of volt-ampere characteristics indicates that the battery have only three kinds of mechanisms. Without changing the basic form of the function and under the principle of the mechanism function’s working region considered, we propose a mechanism function which satisfies the monotonic decreasing characteristic of the voltammetric curve of battery, via the derivative law of each mechanism function in the voltammetric function of battery. By using the voltammetric data, the obtained cell mechanism function can accurately predict the potential (current or voltage) when the independent variable of the cell is zero, and provide the theoretical basis for the internal working mechanism of the cell, which can guide the practice.

In this paper, a capacitor microphone system is presented to improve the conversion of mechanical energy to electrical energy using a nonlinear auto regressive moving average-L2 (NARMA-L2) and model predictive control (MPC) controllers for the analysis of the open loop and closed loop system. The open loop system response shows that the output voltage signal need to be improved. The comparison of the closed loop system with the proposed controllers have been analyzed and a promising result have been obtained using Matlab/Simulink.

The main goal of this article is to demonstrate the impact of environmental data on the spreading of Covid-19. In this research, data has been collected from 70 cities/provinces that are affected by Covid-19. Here, environmental data refers to temperatures, humidity and population density in each of these cities/provinces. This data has been analyzed using statistical models such as Poisson, Quasi-Poisson and negative Binomial. It is found that a negative Binomial regression model is the best fit for our data. Our results reveal that average high temperature is the vital factor to slow down the spread of Covid-19. In addition, higher population density found to be an important factor for the quick spreading of Covid-19 where it is quite impossible to maintain the social distance and the virus can spread easily.

This paper is an attempt to present a COVID-19 prediction model for India. Lockdown plays an important role in the arrest of community spread of the disease. This was evident from the study of other countries such as Russia, Belgium and Germany, where peak cases were recorded within a month of the imposition of lockdown, that it showed an immediate positive effect. However, in India, even after 65 days of lockdown, there is no decrease in the number of daily new cases reported. There were many models prepared for India and almost all of them were proven wrong by the increase in the number of cases. The model in this paper is prepared using the COVID-19 trend in other countries, population density and the pandemic bell curve. Based on the available data until 24^th May 2020, two scenarios have been presented. In one, the peak shall be obtained when the number of daily new cases per million reaches 190 and in the second when the daily new cases per million reach 724. One model predicts the number of cases to reach 1 million by mid-July 2020. The other model predicts the number of cases to peak by mid-July with the total cases reaching 20 million. The predicted cases were compared with the actual cases recorded for the period 25^th May to 11^th June 2020. It was observed that the actual values matched quite reasonably with the predicted values.

Background: Flattening the curve refers to community isolation measures that keep the daily number of disease cases at a manageable level for medical providers. Efforts to completely contain the COVID – 19 have failed. As there is currently no vaccine or specific medication to treat COVID-19, the only way to flatten the curve is through collective action of mitigation efforts. Objectives: The study was carried out with aim to study the effect of mitigation efforts in reducing the overall COVID -19 attack rate and flattening the curve of COVID-19 in Egypt. Methods: Secondary data in the situation reports of WHO, Worldometer and Egyptian MoHP Report about the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt were analyzed till June 27, 2020. Survival analysis was carried out to determine the cumulative proportional survival of COVID-19. The Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model was used to study the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. Results: In Egypt in the fourth week after exposure β was 0.17 and γ = 0.07. The fraction of infectious individuals will grow exponentially as the exponential growth rate was 0.10, with an epidemic time of 7 days. R in 22 ^nd June was 0.80 (less than one person infected) where β=0.21 and γ =0.26. There was reduction in the actual overall attack rate at 22^nd June of 96 % of its value without intervention with a cumulative proportional survival of 0.89. There was flattening of the curve. Conclusion and Recommendation: Mitigation efforts of Egypt had succeeded in flattening the curve of COVID-19 Pandemic. Even though, strengthening all the mitigation efforts to keep the exposure probability, as well as the transmission rate as low as possible is mandatory for containment of the epidemic.

The sudden pervasive of severe acute respiratory syndrome Covid-19 has been leading the universe into a prominent crisis. It has influenced each zone, for example, industrial area, horticultural zone, Public transportation, economic zone, and so on. So as to see how Covid-19 affected the globe, we conducted an investigation characterizing the effects of the pandemic over the world using Machine Learning (ML) method. Prediction is a typical data science exercise that helps the administration with function planning, objective setting, and anomaly detection. We propose an additive regression model with interpretable parameters that can be naturally balanced by experts with domain intuition about the time series. We focus on global data beginning from 22^nd January 2020, till 26^th April 2020 and performed dynamic map visualization of Covid-19 expansion globally by date wise and predicting the spread of virus on all countries and continents. The major advantages of this work include accurate analysis of country-wise as well as province/state-wise confirmed cases, recovered cases, deaths, prediction of pandemic viral attack and how far it is expanding globally.

Communication has never been more accessible than today. With the help of Instant messengers and Email Services, millions of people can transfer information with ease, and this trend has affected organizations as well. There are billions of organizational emails sent or received daily, and their main goal is to facilitate the daily operation of organizations. Behind this vast corpus of human-generated content, there is much implicit information that can be mined and used to improve or optimize the organizations’ operations. Business processes are one of those implicit knowledge areas that can be discovered from Email logs of an Organization, as most of the communications are followed inside Emails. The purpose of this research is to propose an approach to discover the process models in the Email log. In this approach, we combine two tools, supervised machine learning and process mining. With the help of supervised machine learning, fastText classifier, we classify the body text of emails to the activity-related. Then the generated log will be mined with process mining techniques to find process models. We illustrate the approach with a case study company from the oil and gas sector.

We examine the profitability of the momentum and contrarian strategies in three South Asian markets i.e. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. We also analyze, whether credit risk influences momentum and contrarian return for these markets from 2008 to 2014. We use Distance-to-default (DD) of Kealhofer, McQuown and Vasicek (KMV) model as a measure of credit risk. We calculate the credit risk and form the momentum and contrarian strategies of the firms on the basis of high, medium and low risk. We find that in all three markets, the momentum and contrarian returns are significant for medium and high credit risk portfolios and no momentum and contrarian returns for low credit risk portfolios.

A regularization approach to model selection, within a generalized HJM framework, is introduced which learns the closest arbitrage-free model to a prespecified factor model. This optimization problem is represented as the limit of a one-parameter family of computationally tractable penalized model selection tasks. General theoretical results are derived and then specialized to affine term-structure models where new types of arbitrage-free machine learning models for the forward-rate curve are estimated numerically and compared to classical short-rate and the dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor models.