The aim was to evaluate the influence of model (alcohol, sugar, salt, protein and acid) and real foods and beverages on the viability of probiotics during incubation and artificial digestion. Viability of monocultures Lactobacillus acidophilus CCM4833 and Bifidobacterium breve CCM7825T and commercial mixture of 9 probiotic bacterial strains were tested by cultivation assay and flow cytometry. In model foods, the best viability was determined in the presence of 0.2 g/L glucose, 10% albumin and 10% ethanol. As the most suitable real food for probiotic survival complex protein and carbohydrate substrates were found, such as beef broth, potato salad with pork, chicken with rice, chocolate spread, porridge and yoghurt. The best liquid was milk and meat broth, followed by coca-cola, beer and coffee. Viability of probiotics was higher when consumed with meals than with beverages only. Addition of prebiotics increased the viability of probiotics especially in presence of instant and fast foods. Generally, the highest viability of probiotics during artificial digestion was observed in mixed culture in presence of protein, sugar and fat or their combination. The increase of cell viability observed in such foods during model digestion may further contribute to the positive effect of probiotics on human health.

Exploring the effect of the sample size on the estimation accuracy of airborne LiDAR forest attributes in a large-scale area can help in optimizing the technical application scheme of operational ALS-based large-scale forest stand inventories. In our study, sample datasets composed of different sample plots were constructed by repeated sampling from 1003 sample plots in a subtropical study area covering 2376 × 103 km2. Sixteen multiplicative power models were built in each forest type consisting of four forest attributes. Through these models, the variations of standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV) of R2 and rRMSE of forest attribute estimation models for different quantity levels of sample plots were also analyzed. The results showed that, first, when the sample size increased from 30 to the top limit, the SD of the forest attributes and LiDAR variables showed a decreasing trend. Second, as the sample size increased, the rRMSE of the 16 forest attribute estimation models gradually decreased, while the R2 gradually increased. Third, when the sample size was small, both the SD of R2 and rRMSE of the models were large, and the SD of R2 and rRMSE gradually decreased as the sample size increased. In 50 models conducted for each attribute at the same sample size, for the mean standard deviations of forest attributes, the ten best performing models were lower than those of the total 50 models, and the worst ten models were the opposite. When the sample size increased, the accuracy of each forest attribute estimation model for each forest type gradually improved. The variation of forest attributes and the LiDAR variable of the construction model are critical factors that affect the model’s accuracy. To efficiently apply airborne LiDAR in order to survey large-scale subtropical forest resources, the sample size of the Chinese fir forest, pine forest, eucalyptus forest, and broad-leaved forest should be 110, 80, 85, and 70, respectively.

Melanoma is considered the most serious and aggressive type of skin cancer, and metastasis appears to be the most important factor in prognosticating this type of cancer. With the emergence of new therapeutic strategies for metastatic melanoma that have shown improvement in patient survival, we developed a transfer learning-based biomarker discovery model that could help in the diagnosis and prognosis of this disease. After applying it to the ensemble machine learning model, results reveal that the genes we found show consistency with other methodologies previously applied to the same TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas) data set, and our methods found novel biomarker genes as well. Our ensemble model achieved Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC) of 0.9861, an accuracy of 91.05, and an F1 score of 90.60 using an independent validation data set. This study was able to identify potential genes for diagnostic classification (C7 and GRIK5) and diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers (S100A7, S100A7, KRT14, KRT17, KRT6B, KRTDAP, SERPINB4, TSHR, PVRL4, WFDC5, IL20RB). We also assessed the potential sources of bias for our model and confirmed some of them by the model's performance.

In the book “Everyhing Is A Circle: A New Model For Orbits Of Bodies In The Universe”, and further in the Article “Distance Between Two Circles in Any Number of Dimensions is a Vector Ellipse”, it has been mathematically demonstrated that “distance between points on any two different circles in any number of multiple dimensions” is equivalent to “distance of points on a vector ellipse from another fixed or moving point”. Using this mathematical methodology, a method is provided in this Article as a measure for the amount of interaction between two international economies, which are two countries or economic zones, by modelling each economy in terms of a “circle in four dimensions”. Based on this method, the proximity of the two economies at the end of each fiscal period, which is generally a fiscal year, is then measured by the distance between points at the end of the given period on the two circles in four dimensions, associated with these two economies in our model.

The success of a software product depends on several factors. Given that different organizations and institutions use software products, the need to have a quality and desirable software according to the goals and needs of the organization makes measuring the quality of software products an important issue for most organizations and institutions. To be sure of having the right software. It is necessary to use a standard quality model to examine the features and sub-features for a detailed and principled study in the quality discussion. In this study, the quality of Word software was measured. Considering the importance of software quality and to have a good and usable software in terms of quality and measuring the quality of software during the study, experts and skilled in this field were used and the impact of each factor and quality characteristics. It was applied at different levels according to their opinion to make the result of measuring the quality of Word software more accurate and closer to reality. In this research, the quality of the software product is measured based on the fuzzy inference system in ISO standard. According to the results obtained in this study, it is understood that quality is a continuous and hierarchical concept and the quality of each part of the software at any stage of production can lead to high quality products.

Landscapes evolve due to climatic conditions, tectonic activity, geological features, biological activity, and sedimentary dynamics. These processes link geological processes at depth to surface features. Consequently, the study of landscapes can reveal essential information about the geochemical footprint of ore deposits at depth. Advances in satellite imaging and computing power have enabled the creation of large geospatial datasets, the sheer size of which necessitates automated processing. We describe a methodology to enable the automated mapping of landscape pattern domains using machine learning (ML) algorithms. From a freely available Digital Elevation Model, derived data, and sample landclass boundaries provided by domain experts, our algorithm produces a dense map of the model region in Western Australia. Both random forest and support vector machine classification achieve about 98\% classification accuracy with reasonable runtime of 48 minutes on a single core. We discuss computational resources and study the effect of grid resolution. Larger tiles result in a more contiguous map, while smaller tiles result in a more detailed, and at some point, noisy map. Diversity and distribution of landscapes mapped in this study support previous results. In addition, our results are consistent with the geological trends and main basement features in the region.

The runtime environment is an important concern for self-adaptive systems (SASs). Although researchers have proposed many approaches for developing SASs that address the issue of uncertain runtime environments, the understanding of these environments varies depending on the objectives, perspectives, and assumptions of the research. Thus, the current understanding of the environment in SAS development is ambiguous and abstract. To make this understanding more concrete, we describe the landscape in this area through a systematic literature review (SLR). We examined 128 primary studies and 14 unique environment models. We investigated concepts of the environment depicted in the primary studies and the proposed environment models based on their ability to aid in understanding. This illustrates the characteristics of the SAS environment, the associated emerging environmental uncertainties, and what is expressed in the existing environment models. This paper makes explicit the implicit understanding about the environment made by the SAS research community and organizes and visualizes them.

Fitts' law predicts the human movement response time for a specific task by a simple linear formulation, in which the intercept and the slope are estimated from the task's empirical data. This research was motivated by our pilot study, which found that the linear regression's essential assumptions are not satisfied in the literature. Furthermore, the keystone hypothesis in Fitts' law, that the movement time per response will be directly proportional to the minimum average amount of information per response demanded by the particular amplitude and target width, has never been formally tested. Therefore, this study developed an optional formulation derived from fusing the findings in psychology, physics, and physiology for fulfilling the statistical assumptions. An experiment was designed to test the hypothesis in Fitts' law and validate the proposed model. To conclude, our results indicated that movement time could be related to the index of difficulty underlying the same constant amplitude. The optional formulation accompanies the index of difficulty in Shannon form robustly performs the prediction better than the traditional model across studies. Finally, a new approach to modeling movement time prediction is deduced from our research results

To increase rice production, fertilizer plays a crucial role in rice yield. In this research, we applied the coupled atmospheric and crop model, which is based on the WRF and CERES-Rice models, to find the appropriate nitrogen fertilizer level for increasing rice yield production in northern Thailand. The model was conducted from October to December in 2011 to 2015. To evaluate the model capability, the output from the model, including meteorological data, i.e., precipitation and temperature, and rice production, as compared to actual observation data. The modeling system shows an acceptable level of output for statistical examination; for example, the R² values were 0.93, 0.76, and 0.97 for precipitation, temperature, and rice production, respectively. To assess the optimization of the nitrogen fertilizer level, we designed 9 experiments: control cases and other cases that were multiplied by a factor of 2 – 10 times the nitrogen fertilizer levels. The model suggested that we can produce worthwhile rice yield production by approximately 4830 kg/ha if we increase the nitrogen fertilizer levels by 36 kg/ha.

Commercial classification is essential to spatially describe commerce. Although most of the proposed classifications have been classic functional analyses, rooted on qualitative studies, some recent classifications efforts are found to rely heavily on more quantitative methods, due eventually to increasing data availability and technological advancements. In this paper, a classification is proposed, using k-means clustering and a minimal set of variables (density, diversity and clustering) to derive the commercial structure of Lisbon. The classification is implemented for 1995, 2002 and 2010, using a 150m-sided square grid. The cross-sectional analysis of the results shows the rise of shopping-malls against city centre decline and gentrification, along with changes in cluster composition considering 9 different commercial categories (6 categories of retail, and restaurants, cafes and bars). These findings are in line with literature, thus supporting the obtained classification. Since the classification can be used to accurately describe the commercial structure of the city in different time periods, it is implied that it may also be generalized to different cities. Furthermore, the potential use of cluster membership in retail location models, which is an advantage of the proposed classification, could help strengthen the relationship between location modelling and commercial classification, thus reinforcing the role of commercial studies in urban planning and policymaking.

Abstract Aim: To determine the efficacy of health beliefs model –based intervention in changing the belief related to substance use among university student in Mosul city-Iraq. Design: A randomized controlled trial. Methods: A probability (simple random sample) of (N=80) undergraduate student in different specialties would be selected. The study sample will be recruited from (4) colleges in the University of Mosul's Engineering, Sciences, Medicine and Education Colleges. The sample will be randomly assigned into experimental and control groups of (40) undergraduate student for each group. Such chosen is employed of pool of topics that have the criteria contain students who have using on (Smoking, Hookah, Drug abuse and Alcohol).For during from 25of October / 2019 till 1 of February/2021. Data is analyzed using the "Statistical Package for Social Science" (SPSS) software for Windows (V:26). Results: This finding indicated that before the intervention, mean scores for all concepts of HBM, add to Motivation, Control, and behaviors intensions of students they were almost equal. However, after the intervention were significantly different in the study group, while it was not significant in the control group. Conclusion:This study concluded that designing an HBM-based study could affect students' understanding and their behaviors in the field of substance abuse. Considering the positive correlation between construct of HBM, particularly in "perceived benefits and perceived severity" related to students’ beliefs. These beliefs implied a significant correlation with each other and with the attention to the prevention of addiction.

This review describes the subjective experience of visual aura in migraine, outlines theoretical models of this phenomenon, and explores how these may be linked to neurochemical, electrophysiological and psychophysical differences in sensory processing that have been reported in migraine with aura. Reaction-diffusion models have been used to model the hallucinations thought to arise from cortical spreading depolarisation and depression in migraine aura. One aim of this review is to make the underlying principles of these models accessible to a general readership. Cortical spreading depolarisation and depression in these models depends on the balance of the diffusion rate between excitation and inhibition, and the occurrence of a large spike in activity to initiate spontaneous pattern formation. We review experimental evidence, including recordings of brain activity made during the aura and attack phase, self-reported triggers of migraine, and psychophysical studies of visual processing in migraine with aura, and how these might relate to mechanisms of excitability that make some people susceptible to aura. Increased cortical excitability, increased neural noise, and fluctuations in oscillatory activity across the migraine cycle are all factors likely to contribute to the occurrence of migraine aura. There remain many outstanding questions relating to the current limitations of both models and experimental evidence. Nevertheless, reaction-diffusion models, by providing an integrative theoretical framework, support the generation of testable experimental hypotheses to guide future research.

The center vortex model of quantum-chromodynamics can explain confinement and chiral symmetry breaking. We present a possible resolution for problems of the vortex detection in smooth configurations and discuss improvements for the detection of center vortices.

The widely used logistic model for epidemic case reporting data may be either restrictive or unrealistic in presence of containment measures when implemented after an epidemic outbreak. For flexibility in epidemic case reporting data modelling, we combined an exponential growth curve for the early epidemic phase with a flexible growth curve to account for the potential change in growth pattern after implementation of containment measures. We also fitted logistic regression models to recoveries and deaths from the confirmed positive cases. In addition, the growth curves were integrated into a SIQR (Susceptible, Infective, Quarantined, Recovered) model framework to provide an overview on the modelled epidemic wave. We focused on the estimation of: (1) the delay between the appearance of the first infectious case in the population and the outbreak (“epidemic latency period"); (2) the duration of the exponential growth phase; (3) the basic and the time-varying reproduction numbers; and (4) the peaks (time and size) in confirmed positive cases, active cases and new infections. The application of this approach to COVID-19 data from West Africa allowed to discuss the effectiveness of some containment measures implemented across the region.

Background: Renewed measles outbreaks in recent years indicate that despite the routine availability of vaccines for a disease that is considered contagious, dangerous and deadly, many anti-vaccinationists do not vaccinate their children, which consequently endangers public health. This study aimed to investigate the factors that influence mothers to vaccinate their children, and whether the Health Belief Model (HBM) could predict compliance or non-compliance. Methods: This was a quantitative correlational research, utilizing a 40-item questionnaire administered to 181 mothers in Israel. Results: The findings indicated two main factors that affected mothers' intention to vaccinate their children against measles: first, their perception of the vaccine's advantages, and second, their perception of the severity of the disease. It was also found that the HBM variables significantly affected the intention to administer vaccines. Conclusion: Consequently, raising public awareness of the vaccine's advantages and importance to preventing mass infection, as well as attempts by the health system and practitioners to understand the motivations of anti-vaccinationists (including health beliefs and cultural sensitivities) could significantly increase the percentage of vaccinated children, and eradicate the measles epidemic.

In a large variety of organisms, antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are primary defences against pathogens. BP100 (KKLFKKILKYL-NH2), a short, synthetic, and cationic AMP, is active against bacteria and displays low toxicity towards eukaryotic cells. BP100 acquires an α-helical conformation upon interaction with membranes and increases membrane permeability. Despite the volume of information available, the mechanism of action of BP100, the selectivity of its biological effects, and its applications are far from consensual. In this work, we synthesized a fluorescent BP100 analog containing naphthalimide linked to its N-terminal end, Napht-BP100 (Napht-AAKKLFKKILKYL-NH2). The fluorescence properties of naphthalimides, especially their spectral sensitivity to microenvironment changes, are well established, and their biological activities against different types of cells are known. A wide variety of techniques were used to demonstrate that a-helical Napht-BP100 was bound and permeabilized POPC and POPG LUV. Napht-BP100, different from that observed for BP100, was bound to, and permeabilized POPC LUV. With zwitterionic (POPC) and negatively charged (POPG) containing LUVs, membrane surface high peptide/lipid ratios triggered complete disruption of the liposomes in a detergent-like manner. This disruption was driven by charge neutralization, lipid aggregation, and membrane destabilization. Napht-BP100 also interacted with double-stranded DNA, indicating that this peptide could also affect other cellular processes in addition to membrane destabilization. Napht-BP100 showed superior antibacterial activity, increased hemolytic activity compared to BP100, and may constitute an efficient antimicrobial agent for dermatological use. By conjugating BP100 and naphthalimide antimicrobial properties, Napht-BP100 was bound more efficiently to the bacterial membrane and could destabilize the membrane and enter the cell by interacting with its cytoplasm- exposed DNA.

The aim was to implement a value-promoting program (Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility, TPSR) and to assess its impact on students. Method: The program was applied for 8 months with 257 students from three secondary school centres (151 boys and 106 girls) with a mean of 15.97 years old (SD = 2.31). They were in three groups, 67 students (control group), 90 students receiving at least 60% of the total teaching time the value-promoting program (experimental group for global education, EG-GE) and 100 students (experimental group only for physical education, EG-PE). As main results improvements were found in the EG-GE for responsibility, psychological mediator index, self-determination index, resilience, climate and prosocial behaviours. In the EG-PE improved were observed in the self-determination index, classroom climate and prosocial behaviours. Female students and from EG-GE improve much more than males and from EG-PE. The outcomes in psychological variables can be higher if TPSR is applied to the whole subjects apart from physical education. These results are even more pronounced for female students in personal and social responsibility. It is worth highlighting the importance of coordinating educational institutions to facilitate the involvement of the greatest number of teachers.

Accurate monthly runoff estimation is fundamental in water resources management, planning, and development, resulting in preventing and reducing water-related problems, such as flooding and drought. This article evaluates the performance of the monthly hydrological rainfall-runoff model, GR2M model, in Thailand's southern basins. The GR2M model requires only two parameters, and no prior research has been reported on its application in this region. The 37 runoff stations, which are distributively located in three sub-watersheds of Thailand's southern region, namely; Thale Sap Songkhla, Peninsular-East Coast, and Peninsular-West Coast, were selected as study cases. The available monthly hydrological data of runoff, rainfall, air temperature from the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) and the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) were collected and analyzed. Thornthwaite method was utilized for the determination of evapotranspiration. The model's performance was conducted using three statistical indices: Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Correlation Coefficient (r), and Overall Index (OPI). The model's calibration results for 37 runoff stations gave the average of NSE, r, and OPI of 0.637, 0.825, and 0.757, and those values for verification of 0.465, 0.750, and 0.639, respectively. It indicated a model's acceptable performance and could apply the GR2M model for determining monthly runoff variation in this region. The spatial distribution of X1 and X2 values was conducted by using IDW method. It was susceptible to the X1 value and X2 value of approximately more than 0.90 gave the higher model's performance.

Research professors develop scientific products that impact and benefit society, but their competencies in doing so are rarely evaluated. Therefore, employing a mixed two-stage sequential design, this study developed a self-assessment model of research professors’ competencies with four domains, seven competencies, and 30 competency elements. Next, we conducted descriptive statistical analysis of those elements. In the first year, 320 respondents rated themselves on four levels: initial, basic, autonomous, and consolidated. In the assessment model’s second year, we compared 30 respondents’ results with those of their initial self-assessment. The main developmental challenge was Originality and Innovation, which remained at the initial level. Both Training of Researchers and Transformation of Society were at the basic level, and Digital Competency was at the autonomous level. Both Teaching Competence and Ethics and Citizenship attained the consolidated level. This information helps establish priorities for accelerating researchers’ training and the quality of their research.

In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of Integrated Assessment Models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modelling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different Integrated Assessment Models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP). The investigation was carried out to cross-compare and benchmark the response of MEDEAS models with TIMES and LEAP in depicting the energy transition in two different countries, Austria and Bulgaria. The preliminary results show a good agreement across all the models in representing scenarios projecting historical trends, while a major discrepancy is detectable when the rate of implementation of renewable energy is forced to increase to achieve energy system decarbonization. The discrepancy is mainly traceable to the differences in the models’ conception and structures rather than in a real mismatch in representing the same scenarios. The present study is put forward as a guideline for validating new modelling approaches that link energy policy decision tools to the global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints.

This paper presents a method to determine material constants of a standard basketball shell together with the development of a virtual numerical model of a basketball. Material constants were used as the basis for the hyperelastic material model in the strain energy function (SEF). Material properties were determined experimentally by strength testing in uniaxial tensile tests. Additionally, the digital image correlation technique (DIC) was applied to measure strain in axial planar specimens, thus providing input stress-strain data for the Autodesk software. Analysis of testing results facilitated the construction of a hyperelastic material model. The optimal Ogden material model was selected. Two computer programmes by Autodesk were used to construct the geometry of the virtual basketball model and to conduct simulation experiments. Geometry was designed using Autodesk Inventor Professional 2017, while Autodesk Simulation Mechanical 2017 was applied in simulation experiments. Simulation calculations of the model basketball bounce values were verified according to the FIBA recommendations. These recommendations refer to the conditions and parameters which should be met by an actual basketball. A comparison of experimental testing and digital calculation results provided insight into the application of numerical calculations, designing of structural and material solutions for sports floors.

Species have shown their habital variations in responding to climate change, especially during the spring and summer spawning seasons. The species distribution model (SDM) is considered the most favorable tool to study the potential effects of climate change on species distribution. Therefore, we developed the ensemble SDM to predict the changes in species distribution of Portunus trituberculatus among different seasons in 2050 and 2100 under the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results of SDM indicate that the distribution of this species will move northward and have obviouse seasonal variations. Meanwhile, the suitable habitat for the species will be significantly reduced in summer, with loses rates ranging from 45.23% (RCP4.5) to 88.26% (RCP.8.5) by 2100s. Habitat reduction will mainly occur in the East China Sea and southern part of the Yellow Sea, while there will be a small increase in the northern Bohai Sea. These findings will be important to manage the ecosystem and fishery, provide an information forecast of this species in the future, and maintain species diversity if the seawater temperature rises.

In order to maintain the best conditions of the building from the first day of opening, explorations of office buildings in the world investigated the approaches of optimizing the building operation and property facilities, whereas building managers often have trouble prioritizing improvements toward their sustainable objectives. The challenge is due to numerous equipment types in the building, which has various durability in years and represents users’ different feelings of importance and satisfaction. When faced with multiple improvement projects, building managers are often unable to determine the order of implementation.Hence, this research applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) using TAIPEI 101 Tower as a case study to explore the key factors affecting tenants’ willingness to lease office buildings by distributing questionnaires to real estate experts. By filtering out key indicators related to property facilities that users care about, this study used Importance and Satisfaction Analysis (IS Analysis) to identify items that need urgent improvement. The research revealed that air conditioning is the top priority for improvement through empirical evaluation and weight ranking. This study hopes to establish an evaluation model for facility improvements to help clarify the prioritization and defeat limited resources to projects effectively, which is helpful for sustainable property management.

Aim: This research is aimed at examining the cost-effectiveness of olanzapine versus risperidone in dementia patients with behavioural and psychological symptoms in Thailand. Methods: An existing Markov model based on a critical review through the comprehensive literature search and a justification for the most appropriate model for a Thai setting was adapted to simulate the disease progression of patients with dementia with behavioural disturbances until their need for full-time care (FTC). The time to the FTC state was estimated by a predictive equation developed by Rive et al. (2010). The model was conducted to assess the expected costs and outcomes associated with olanzapine compared with risperidone for Thai patients with BPSD aged 60 years and above. This model performed over a five-year time horizon with a one-month cycle length based on a societal perspective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was used as the estimated outcome. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted to demonstrate the robustness of the results. Results: Over 5 years, olanzapine was found to be a cost-effective therapeutic option for the treatment of behaviourally disturbed patients with dementia compared with risperidone, in Thailand from a societal perspective (ICER < THB 160,000). The model underwent extensive sensitivity analyses, which also confirmed that olanzapine was the dominant strategy following the base-case findings. Conclusions: By comparison with risperidone, the model suggests that olanzapine can be regarded as a cost-effective therapeutic strategy for the management of patients with behavioural and psychological symptoms in Thailand.

Research Highlights: Hagenia abyssinica is geographically localized, poor regenerated and endangered species in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been experiencing variability of rainfall and rise in temperature due to the climate change. This study has hypothesized that the suitable areas for the species will be narrowed by the year 2070. Background and Objective The prediction of species distribution models help to implement appropriate conservation actions. The aim of this research was to identify the current and likely future distribution range and suitable areas for the species, and to determine the presence of H. absyssinica in risk in a short-term future. Material and method: To this end, occurrence data, bioclim variables, soil, elevation, and land cover map of Ethiopia were used. MaxEnt was used to predict distribution. Climate change impacts on the distribution of the species was performed using bioclimatic variables of the future climate data, 2070 (average for 2061-2080) was obtained from IPPC5 (CMIP5) at 30 seconds (1km) spatial resolution. The climate data was projected from GCMs, downscaled and calibrated using rcp4.5. Results: Both current and likely future distribution models were excellent and significantly better than random performance. This study has computed 59987 km2 to be the low impact area for the species under current conditions and will remain habitat under future climates and 39025 km2 area has been identified as the possible high impact areas or declining habitat. The model has also determined that 1238724 km2 of the areas are unsuitable at present and for future climates. The current study found that 15751 km2 of the area will be modified as a new suitable area for H. abyssinica due to climate change. Conclusion: Species distribution modeling is essential for the implementation of conservation actions that are compatible with the inevitable changing climatic conditions of the country.

The discovery of a growing number of exoplanets and even extrasolar systems supports the scientific consensus that it is possible to find other signs of life in the universe. The present work proposes for the first time, an explicit mechanism inspired by the dynamics of biological dispersion, widely used in ecology and epidemiology, to study the dispersion of biogenic units, interpreted as complex organic molecules, between rocky or water exoplanets (habitats) located inside star clusters. The results of the dynamic simulation suggest that for clusters with populations lower than 4 M+/ly³ it is not possible to obtain biogenic worlds after 5 Gyr. Above this population size, biogenic dispersion seems to follow a power law, the larger the density of worlds lesser will be the impact rate (β ) value to obtain at least one viable biogenic Carrier habitat after 5 Gyr. Finally, when we investigate scenarios by varying β, a well-defined set of density intervals can be defined in accordance to its characteristic β value, suggesting that biogenic dispersion has a behavior of “minimal infective dose” of “minimal biogenic effective” events by interval i.e. once this dose has been achieved, doesn’t matter if additional biogenic impact events occur on the habitat.

Environmental decentralization (ED), or the allocation of environmental protection affairs and responsibilities among various administrative authorities, affects the effectiveness of environmental regulation in promoting green total factor productivity (GTFP). Based on panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2001 to 2015, this paper employs dynamic panel models to test the effects of environmental regulations (environmental protection investment, ENV; pollutant discharge fees, PDF) on GTFP, with or without being influenced by ED. Without the impact of ED, GTFP is significantly inhibited by ENV while significantly promoted by PDF. Considering the impact of ED, with the strengthening of ED, the negative effects of ENV on GTFP is significant; contrarily, the positive effects of PDF on GTFP is significant; improving provincial ED adds negative effects of ENV, while reduces the positive effects of PDF; increasing prefectural ED reduces negative effects of ENV; expanding county-level ED adds the positive effects of PDF. Therefore, to boost GTFP growth, prefectural environmental protection authorities should have more autonomy in ENV, while the county-level should have more autonomy in PDF.

In this project, we use a statistical multiple regression to study the impact of eight various predictors (relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area, glazing area distribution) to estimate the cooling load energy efficiency of residential buildings. We try to analyze and visualize the effect of each predictor with each of the response variable using different classical statistical analysis tools used in describing linear models, in such a way so that we can find out the most strongly related predictor variables. Before starting all of this, we use the idea of model selection by stepwise regression technique and compare the AIC of these models and identified a better model between all of them. Then, we compare a classical linear regression approach by simulations on 768 diverse residential buildings show that we can predict CL with low mean absolute error. By using ANOVA we determine variation in the different residuals. Also, we use non constant variance test to verify it. Furthermore, we check leverage and influence points as well as outliers as well as determined cook distance for influential points. By taking box cox transformation and weights, we also introduce WLS technique to fit the model for better results and did all type of important analysis to understand the energy efficiency. Finally, we show 5-fold cross validation to verify our model.

Indoor Positioning Systems (IPSs) are designed to provide solutions for location-based services. Wireless local area network (WLAN)-based positioning systems are the most widespread around the globe and are commonly found to have a ready-to-use infrastructure composed mostly of access points (APs). They provide useful information on signal strength to be processed by adequate location algorithms, which are not always capable of achieving the desired localization error only by themselves. In this sense, this paper proposes a new method to improve the accuracy of IPSs by optimizing some of their most relevant infrastructure components. Included are the arrangement of APs over the environment, the number of reference points (RPs), and the number of samples per location estimation test. A simulation environment is also proposed, in which the impact of key influencing factors on system accuracy is analyzed. Finally, a case study is simulated to validate an optimal combination of design parameters and its compliance with the requirements of localization error and the limited number of access points. Our simulation results clearly show that the desired localization accuracy, which is set as a goal, can be achieved while maintaining the factors already mentioned at minimal levels, which decreases both system deployment costs and computational effort.

We investigate, whereas the SU(4)/SU(2) model, is viable for describing strong interactions. The existing problems of confinement and asymptotic freedom, two phenomena that can not be described by the SU(3) model, might indicate that we need something "larger" than the SU(3) model. The considered coset SU(4)/SU(2) or the Stiefel manifold V^2(C_4) contains an su(3) algebra, plus additional degrees of freedom that resembes the Feddev-Poppov concept. The richer structure of this coset, give us enough room, to seek for new phenomena, as its dimensionality is 12. The consideration of the SU(4)/SU(2) model flavors firstly the unification of nuclear fields (strong and weak) in an SU(4) model.

Parallel lives is a model which provides an interpretation of quantum theory that is both local and realistic. This model assumes that all quantum fields are composed of point beings called ”lives”. Lives interact locally and have a memory of their previous interactions. The reduction of the state vector is not included in this model: lives can be divided into different worlds. This feature resembles many worlds interpretation. However in the parallel lives model, the division of lives into different worlds takes place locally. The parallel lives model is expected to be compatible with special relativity, as the lives propagate at a speed that does not exceed the speed of light and interact locally. On the other hand, it is open to paradoxes based on counterfactual propositions, as it provides a realistic interpretation of quantum theory. In this paper, we confront the parallel lives model with the paradox proposed by Hardy. We show that the parallel lives model cannot overcome the dilemma in Hardy’s paradox. We discuss implications of this confrontation on special theory of relativity, and speculate a solution that we believe, fits the spirit of the parallel lives model.

Occasionally, officials of the world’s regulatory agencies embark upon attempts at bringing previously unregulated physical systems under regulation by them. Each such attempt raises an epistemological issue. At issue is whether enough information about the outcomes of the events of the future, given the outcomes of the events of the present, will be in the hands of a would-be regulator for this regulator to regulate effectually. If present, this information is provided by runs of a model of the physical system that is slated for regulation. Ideally, this model makes an argument that draws its conclusion from the evidence presented to it. If so, this argument is of the form of a predictive inference. However, the process by which an argument draws its conclusion from the evidence may go awry. This happens, for example, when the axiom of probability theory called unit measure is falsified by a conclusion that is drawn from the evidence by this argument.A method is derived from first principles for determination of whether unit measure is satisfied or falsified by an argument made by a model, given that this argument may attach unusual meanings to statistical terms. This method is used in a study of whether unit measure is satisfied or falsified by the arguments that are made by a pair of models. Both models are in active use by regulatory agencies around the world. Under neither argument do runs of the model provide an official of a regulatory agency with the information gain aka mutual information that he or she would need to regulate effectually. Under both arguments, attachment of unusual meanings to statistical terms creates the illusion that such an official can and does regulate effectually.

The dynamic increase in non-cash transactions is a global trend in payments. In rich countries, cashless transactions have been dynamically replacing cash. The fact that non-cash transactions are pro-ecological is worth noting. This means that it is conducive to sustainable development of a country's economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the process of changes in non-cash payments in Poland, against the background of payment card use for ATM cash withdrawals. The tool used to analyze the potential process of cash transaction erosion caused by non-cash payments is a two-equation econometric model with feedback. For this purpose, statistical data, obtained from the National Bank of Poland was used. Accordingly, clarification is expected regarding the question of whether the Polish payment system is heading towards a dominance of cashless transactions or not. The reaction, in the form of changes in the value of non-cash payment card transactions in Poland, affected by the increase in the wealth of citizens, measured by an increase in the average pay, was examined. The modeling results were used to estimate forecasts of the share of non-cash transactions in the total value of market transactions and of the share of ATM cash withdrawals in the total value of transactions.

Agricultural land fires have been linked to various and adverse impacts on ecosystems, food security and the agriculture sector. Understanding the patterns and drivers of agricultural land fires is essential for effective agricultural land fire management. The key objectives of this study were to (1) analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of agricultural land fires using satellite remote sensed data, (2) assess a range of environmental conditions that could drive the occurrence of agricultural land fires, (3) determine the best model for predicting agricultural land fires and (4) determine the relative contribution of each environmental condition variable on the best predictive model. We used both univariate and multivariate regressions for the fire prediction capability of four independent environmental conditions (fuel, weather, topographic and anthropogenic). Analysis of historical satellite data revealed that agricultural land fires were more frequent than forested land fires. Our analyses also revealed that fuel condition was the most important variable for predicting agricultural land fires followed by weather, topographic and anthropogenic conditions. This study provides a novel multivariate model for predicting agricultural land fires that harbors the potential to improve agricultural land fire management and reduce fire risk within the agricultural sector.

Tissues of the brain, especially white matter, are extremely heterogeneous - with constitutive response varying spatially. In this paper, we implement a high-resolution Finite Element (FE) head model where heterogeneities of white matter structures are introduced through Magnetic Resonance Elastography (MRE) experiments. Displacement of white matter under shear wave excitation is captured and the material properties determined though an inversion algorithm are directly used in the FE model. This approach is found to improve model predictions when compared to experimental results. In the first place, responses in the cerebrum near stiff structures such as the corpus callosum and corona radiata are markedly different compared with a homogenized material model. Additionally, the heterogeneities introduce additional attenuation of the shear wave due to wave scattering within the cerebrum.

The application of naturally ventilated pig buildings (NVPBs) with outdoor exercise yards is on the rise mainly due to animal welfare considerations, while the issue of emissions from the buildings to the surrounding environment is important. Since air pollutants are mainly transported by airflow, the knowledge on the airflow characteristics downwind the building is required. The objective of this research was to investigate airflow properties downwind of a NVPB with a roofed outdoor exercise yard for roof slopes of 5°, 15°, and 25°. Air velocities downwind a 1:50 scaled NVPB model were measured using a Laser Doppler Anemometer in a large boundary layer wind tunnel. A region with reduced mean air velocities was found along the downwind side of the building with a distance up to 0.5 m (i.e. 3.8 times building height), in which the emission concentration might be high. It was found that a smaller roof slope (i.e. 5° slope) resulted in a higher and shorter wake zone and thus a shorter air pollutant dispersion distance. It was concluded that a smaller roof slope could contribute to the dilution of air pollutants and a lower air pollutant concentration near the ground.

Rapidly spreading disease, COVID-19 is classified as the human-to-human transmission-able disease and currently is a pandemic in the Globe. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models for COVID-19 outbreak and it's control measurement; quarantine, hospitalization and the effect of panic and anxiety. In this situation, mathematical models are a important tool to employ an effective strategy in order to fight against this pandemic. We establish the positivity and boundedness of solutions, local and global stability analysis of equilibria to examine its epidemiological relevance. To validate the model and estimating the important model parameters and prediction about the disease, we consider the real cases of Italy from $15^{th}$ Feb to $13^{th} $ April 2020. In a series of graphical map, we have presented the comparative study to estimate the current scenarios and to predict the control measurement time boundary of the outbreak.

Background: The world, now in an emergency of preventing the drastic spread of COVID-19. After the infection was first reported in December 2019, almost every country did not pay attention to this highly contaminated disease and failed to react swiftly. Now the whole universe is in an vulnerable state, loosing a great loss of lives and facing difficulties in all socio-economic aspects. That is why we have the urge to develop an efficient mathematical model (quarantine) based on social consciousness to control the epidemic. Methods: This is a quarantine mathematical model. The outcome of the system is dependent on social consciousness. We have calculated the awareness level by considering various socio-economic factor of each country. In our model, the parameters are Education Index, GDP per capita, population density, high literacy and stable economy. To maximize the efficiency of the model, it has to be implemented in initial stage. However, strict application of the method in vigorous stage of epidemic will also bring a satisfactory outcome. Results: Higher social consciousness will decrease the number of infected population dramatically while minimal or lower awareness will do a outburst. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system, lower the death rate and will ensure social and economic stability.

The ongoing outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (also known as COVID-19) has triggered a series of stringent control measures in China, such as city closure, traffic restrictions, contact tracing and household quarantine. These containment efforts often lead to changes in the contact pattern among individuals of the population. Many existing compartmental epidemic models fail to account for the effects of contact structure. In this paper, we devised a pairwise epidemic model to analyze the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on confirmed cases reported during the period February 3rd--17th, 2020. By explicitly incorporating the effects of family clusters and contact tracing followed by household quarantine and isolation, our model provides a good fit to the trajectory of COVID-19 infections and is useful to predict the epidemic trend. We obtained the average of the reproduction number $R=1.494$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.483-1.507$) for Hubei province and $R=1.178$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.145-1.158$) for China (except Hubei), suggesting that some existing studies may have overestimated the reproduction number by neglecting the dynamical correlations and clustering effects. We forecasted that the COVID-19 epidemic would peak on February 13th ($95\%$ CI: February $9-17$th) in Hubei and 6 days eariler in the regions outside Hubei. Moreover the epidemic was expected to last until the middle of March in China (except Hubei) and late April in Hubei. The sensitivity analysis shows that ongoing exposure for the susceptible and population clustering play an important role in the disease propagation. With the enforcement of household quarantine measures, the reproduction number $R$ effectively reduces and epidemic quantities decrease accordingly. Furthermore, we gave an answer to the public concern on how long the stringent containment strategies should maintain. Through numerical analysis, we suggested that the time for the resumption of work and production in China (except Hubei) and Hubei would be the middle of March and the end of April, 2020, respectively. These constructive suggestions may bring some immeasurable social-economic benefits in the long run.

The paper describes an algorithm for cognitive representation of triples of related behavioral contexts two of which correspond to mutually exclusive states of some binary situational factor while uncertainty of this factor is the third context. The contexts are mapped to vector states in the two-dimensional quantum Hilbert space describing a dichotomic decision alternative in relation to which the contexts are subjectively recognized. The obtained triad of quantum cognitive representations functions as a minimal carrier of semantic relations between the contexts, which are quantified by phase relations between the corresponding quantum representation states. The described quantum model of subjective semantics supports interpretable vector calculus which is geometrically visualized in the Bloch sphere view of quantum cognitive states.

Legacy mining industry has left a large number of tailings ponds exposed to water and wind erosion that causes serious environmental and health problems. Prior to rehabilitation actions a deep sampling of the materials infilling the pond used to be necessary. Thus, the primary objective of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of the Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) method as a non-invasive tool to determine the physicochemical composition of mine tailings ponds, enabling more efficient and low-cost surveys. To achieve this objective, three ERT profiles and three boreholes in each profile were carried out, from each borehole three waste samples from differents depths were collected and a geochemical characterization of the samples was carried. In order to estimate the composition of the infilling wastes in tailing ponds from electrical resistivity measures, several regression models were calculated for different physicochemical properties and metal concentrations. As a result, a high resistivity area was depicted in profiles G2 and G3 while a non-resistive area (profile G1) was also found. Relationships among low resistivity values and high salinity, clay content and high metal concentrations and mobility were established. Specifically, calibrated models were obtained for electrical conductivity, particles sizes of 0.02-50 µm and 50-2000 µm, total Zn and Cd concentration, and bioavailable Ni, Cd and Fe. Therefore, the ERT technique could be considered as a useful tool for mine tailings ponds characterization, and it can be used to estmate some physicochemical properties and metal concentrations of this mine waste.

Most human genetic disease arises from point mutations. These genetic diseases can theoretically be corrected by gene therapy but clinic practice is still far from mature. Nearly half of the pathogenic single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are caused by G:C>A:T or T:A>C:G base changes. The best current methods to repair these changes are by base editing without footprint using recently developed CRISPR-Cas9 technology by David Liu’s lab. These base editing methods have been confirmed with precision and efficiency in cultured mammalian cells, but it is barely confirmed and the efficiency is still very low. Animal models are important in dissecting pathogenic mechanism for human genetic diseases and efficacy testing of base correction in vivo. Cytidine base editor BE4 is a newly developed version of cytidine base editing system that converts cytidine (C) to uridine (U) in cultured mammalian cells but has not been proven in vivo. In this study, we have tested this system in cells to inactivate GFP gene and in mice by introducing single-base substitution that leads to a stop codon in tyrosinase gene. High percentage albino coat-colored mice were obtained from black coat-colored donor zygotes after pronuclei microinjection. Sequencing results showed that expected base changes were obtained with high precision and efficiency (56.25%). There are no off-targeting events identified in predicted off-target sites. Results confirm BE4 system can work in vivo with high precision and efficacy, and has great potentials in clinic to repair human genetic mutations.

The potential of Thai industrial product design is still inferior to those of leading competitors in world market that give more importance on the design during their product development to increase their competitive edges on commercial scale. The product design is very important part for sustainable growth in this industry. Thus, this research aims at investigating footwear design strategies for Thai footwear industry to be excellence in world market. The research has been designed with the mixed method of both qualitative and quantitative study. The quantitative data were collected through semi-structure interview from 500 designers who presented their designs to join the award competition. The results revealed that the footwear design strategies consisted of 4 factors, i.e. 1) design, 2) market analysis, 3) innovation, and 4) information technology. This paper utilizes the method of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to establish a strategies model for competitive advantage in Thai footwear industry. The analysis results indicated that the footwear design strategies model could help make more effective policies and organization strategies for enterprises and designers to develop themselves to be excellence in world market.

In the present paper, a measure of the influence of irregularities of the underlying surface (for instance, the real terrain profile) on the dynamics of air flow is estimated. It is shown that these irregularities significantly perturbing the pressure, density, velocity and temperature of air flow; for perturbed pressure, density, velocity and temperature of air flow the closed formulas in the Fourier integral form are obtained. In addition, in the present paper, it is proved that due to these perturbations, at a certain altitude of the atmosphere some surface of the "sturdy wall" form appears, on which the vertical and horizontal components of the air flow velocity become infinitesimal and infinitely large, respectively.

Cardiac hypertrophy is an important and independent risk factor for the development of heart failure. To better understand the mechanisms and regulatory pathways involved in cardiac hypertrophy, there is a need for improved in vitro models. In this study, we investigated how hypertrophic stimulation affected human induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived cardiomyocytes (CMs). The cells were stimulated with endothelin-1 (ET-1) for 8, 24, 48, 72, or 96h. Parameters including cell size, ANP-, proBNP-, and lactate concentration were analyzed. Moreover, transcriptional profiling using RNA-sequencing was performed to identify differentially expressed genes following ET-1 stimulation. The results show that the CMs increase in size by approximately 13% when exposed to ET-1 in parallel to increases in ANP and proBNP protein and mRNA levels. Furthermore, the lactate concentration in the media was significantly increased indicating that the CMs consume more glucose, a hallmark of cardiac hypertrophy. Using RNA-seq, a hypertrophic gene expression pattern was also observed in the stimulated CMs. Taken together, these results show that hiPSC-derived CMs stimulated with ET-1 display a hypertrophic response. The results from this study also provide new molecular insights about the underlying mechanisms of cardiac hypertrophy and may help accelerate the development of new drugs against this condition.

Gauge fields control the dynamics of fermions. On the other hand a back reaction of fermions on the gauge field is expected. This back reaction is investigated within the vortex picture of the QCD vacuum.

We use a random gap model to describe a metal-insulator transition in three-dimensional semiconductors due to doping and find a conventional phase transition, where the effective scattering rate is the order parameter. Spontaneous symmetry breaking results in metallic behavior, whereas the insulating regime is characterized by the absence of spontaneous symmetry breaking. The transition is continuous for the average conductivity with critical exponent equal to 1. Away from the critical point the exponent is roughly 0.6, which may explain experimental observations of a crossover of the exponent from 1 to 0.5 by going away from the critical point.

In this work a modified version of the well-known Simple Water Balance (SWB) model, comprising here three parameters instead of one, was used. Although simple, the model was tested in large-scale river basins in east-central Greece, upstream two hydrometric stations. The available historic runoff records comprised 19 hydrologic years each, on a monthly basis. Thirteen among them were used for calibrating the model, whereas the six subsequent, for validating it. Two different efficiency criteria were used as a measure of performance of the modified model. Their values, calculated for both calibration and validation stages, were close and relatively high. Thus, keeping in mind both the size and complexity of the river basins studied, one can conclude that the modified model, despite its simplistic concept and lumped form, fits satisfactorily the historic runoff series.

Globally karst aquifers store large amount of precious water and create beautiful karst springs in many places. However, most of the karst springs flow declined, and some of the karst springs dried up with the effects of extensive groundwater development and climate variation. For example, Jinci Springs (China) is known for the beautiful landscape it created and large area of paddy fields it irrigated. Unfortunately, it dried up in May 1994. For better understanding of the hydrological processes of karst springs, this study introduced grey system models to quantify spring flow taking Jinci Springs as an example. Based on the characteristics of Jinci Springs flow, the spring flow was divided into two stages: the first stage (1954-1960), when the spring flow was affected only by climate variation; and the second stage (1961-1994), when the flow was impacted by both climate variation and anthropogenic activities. Results showed that the Jinci Springs flow had strong relations with precipitation occurring one year and three years earlier in the first stage. Subsequently, a grey system GM (1, 3) model with one-year and three-year lags was set up for the first stage. By using the GM (1, 3) model, we simulated the spring flow in the second stage under effects of climate variation only. Subtracting the observed spring flow from the simulated flow, we obtained the contribution of anthropogenic activities to Jinci Springs cessation. The contribution of anthropogenic activities and climate variation to Jinci Springs cessation was 1.46m3/s and 0.62m3/s, respectively. Finally, each human activity causing spring flow decline was estimated.

Lake Manzala, the largest of the northern Delta lakes of Egypt, has a great economic importance as a major natural resource of fish and salt. Unfortunately, the lake is suffering from the high inputs of pollutants from industrial, domestic, and agricultural sources. The present study aims to develop the proposed water quality management scenarios to assess and control lake pollution, the pollution sources as well as the pollution spread from the lake to the connected Mediterranean Sea. To apply study methodology, the work tasks divided into two main parts, the first part involved in modelling the lake environments by using Delft3D-WAQ hydrodynamic and water quality model to study the current status and predict the dynamic state of the Lake. This model was calibrated and validated by using various water quality datasets to simulate different scenarios. In the second part, the required lake water quality improvement scenarios were developed to solve the lake water quality problems. The study results showed that the first three developed scenarios that focusing on treatment drain effluent using primary, secondary treatment and surface wetland techniques respectively have a limited efficiency on lake water quality improvement. While the fourth scenario that involved on using biological biofilm techniques can improve lake water quality parameters. Moreover, the fifth scenario that proposed adding a new artificial inlet has a limitation due to the noted increases in lake salinity levels. The sixth scenario that proposed a diversion of some drains can improve lake water quality parameters but it can lead to a decrease in Lake water level. From water quality view point, the last scenario that applying a combination biological biofilm activated technique and also adding a new artificial inlet at northern lake region can represent the optimum scenario. Hopefully, this research will preserve the lake environment and contribute to the benefit of the man health as well. This approach could be extended to the hydrodynamic studies in similar large, shallow lakes anywhere in the world.

A systematic approach for model updating using the modal identification results is proposed. Modal identification provides mode shapes for physical quantities (acceleration strain, etc.) measured in specific directions at the location of the sensors. Besides, model updating involves the use of the mode shapes related to the nodal degrees-of-freedom of the finite element analytic model. Consequently, the mode shapes obtained by modal identification and the mode shapes of the model updating process do not coincide even for the same mode. Therefore, a method constructing transform matrices that distinguish the cases where measurement is done by acceleration, velocity and displacement sensors and the case where measurement is done by strain sensors is proposed to remedy such disagreement between the mode shapes. The so-constructed transform matrices are then applied when the mode shape residual is used as objective function or for mode pairing in the model updating process. The feasibility of the proposed approach is verified by means of a numerical example in which the strain or acceleration of a simple beam is measured and a numerical example in which the strain of a bridge is measured. Using the proposed approach, it is possible to model the structure regardless of the position of the sensors and to select the location of the sensors independently from the model.

Rainfall is a major climate parameter whose variation in space and time influences activities in different weather sensitive sectors such as agriculture, transport, and energy among others. Therefore, accurately forecasting rainfall is of paramount importance to the development of these sectors. In this regard, this study sought to contribute to quantitative forecasting of rainfall over Eastern Uganda through assessing the Weather Research and Forecasting model’s ability to simulate the intra–seasonal characteristics of the September to December rain season. These were: onset and cessation dates; wet days and lengths of the wet spells. The data used in the study included daily ground rainfall observations and lateral and boundary conditions data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) final analysis at 1 0 horizontal resolution and at a temporal resolution of 6 hours for the entire study period were used to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The study considered four weather synoptic weather stations namely; Jinja, Serere, Soroti and Tororo. The results show that the WRF model generally simulated fewer wet days at each station except for Tororo. Also, the WRF model simulated earlier onset and cessation dates of the rainfall season and overestimated the length of the wet spells.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of the 3D point cloud density derived from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry and structure from motion (SfM) and multi-view stereopsis (MVS) techniques, the interpolation method for generating a digital terrain model (DTM), and the resolution (grid size) of the derived DTM on the accuracy of estimated heights in small areas, where a very accurate high spatial resolution is required. A UAV-photogrammetry project was carried out on a bare soil of 13 × 13 m with a rotatory wing UAV at 10 m flight altitude (equivalent ground sample distance = 0.4 cm). The 3D point cloud was derived, and five sample replications representing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 and 90% of the original cloud were extracted to analyze the effect of cloud density on DTM accuracy. For each of these samples, DTMs were derived using four different interpolation methods (Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW), Multiquadric Radial Basis Function (MRBF), Kriging (KR), and Triangulation with Linear Interpolation (TLI)) and 15 DTM grid size (GS) values (20, 15, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0.67, 0.5, and 0.4 cm). Then, 675 DTMs were analyzed. The results showed, for each interpolation method and each density, an optimal GS value (most of the cases equal to 1 cm) for which the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is minimum. IDW was the interpolator which yielded best accuracies for all combination of densities and GS. Its RMSE, considering the raw cloud, was 1.054 cm. The RMSE increased 3% when a point cloud with 80% extracted from the raw cloud was used to generate the DTM. When the point cloud included the 40% of the raw cloud, RMSE increased 5%. For densities lower than 15%, RMSE increased exponentially (45% for 1% of raw cloud). The grid size minimizing RMSE for densities of 20% or higher was 1 cm, which represents 2.5 times the ground sample distance of the pictures used for developing the photogrammetry project.

(1) Background: Most of the existing studies focus on the evaluation of technology finance; the relationship between technology finance and technology innovation. But there are few studies on the development of technology finance and the quality of economic development in our country; (2) Methods: Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China, this paper constructs an index system to measure the development of technology finance through the improved entropy method, and tests the spatial correlation of the development of technology finance in China by Moran'I index. According to the test results, this paper constructs a spatial econometric model to empirically analyze the promoting effect of scientific, technological and financial development on high-quality economic development, and analyzes its promoting effect in different regions and different time periods; (3) Results: The results show that the quality of China's economic growth is spatially dependent, and the development of science, technology and finance can significantly promote the quality economic development in China. And the promotion coefficient of the central region is the largest, as well as the coefficient of the eastern region is the smallest. The promotion coefficient was small and not significant before 2015, and was significantly positive after 2015; (4) Conclusions: this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations according to the research results.

The effect of reprocessing on the quasi-static uniaxial tensile behavior of two commercial polypropylene (PP) based composites is experimentally investigated and modeled. In particular, the studied materials consist of an unfilled high-impact PP and a talc-filled high-impact PP. These PP composites are subjected to repeated processing cycles including a grinding step and an extrusion step to simulate recycling at the laboratory level, the selected reprocessing numbers for this study being 0, 3, 6, 9 and 12. Because the repeated reprocessing leads to thermo-mechanical degradation by chain scission mechanisms, the tensile behavior of the two materials exhibits a continuous decrease of elastic modulus and failure strain with increasing number of reprocessing. A physically consistent three-dimensional constitutive model is used to predict the tensile response of non-recycled materials with strain rate dependence. For the recycled materials, the reprocessing effect is accounted by incorporating the reprocessing sensitive coefficient into the constitutive model for Young’s modulus, failure strain, softening and hardening equations. Our predictions of true stress - true strain curves for non-recycled and recycled 108MF97 and 7510 are in a good agreement with experimental data.

There is a restricted knowledge about the potential impact of the use of different wood species on color and anthocyanin changes during the red wine aging process. This lack of knowledge is even greater when no oak wood species are used. Thus, the aim of this study was to carry out a comparative analysis of the impact of wood chip extracts from oak, acacia and cherry species on the chromatic characteristics and anthocyanins changes by the use of model wine solutions. In this context, several methodologies were used to quantified, color and anthocyanins changes during the aging time studied. The results indicated that the contact between wood chip extracts and grape skin isolated anthocyanin extracts induced a decrease of color intensity, particularly red color, and also the anthocyanin content in the different experimental model wine solutions studied. All chromatic modifications are potentially detected by human eyes because ΔE values were much higher than 3 CIELab units. These tendencies seems to be independent of the wood species used, but more pronounced for higher contact time between wood chip extracts and anthocyanins. The obtained results may contribute to a better understanding of the chromatic changes of red wines when aged in contact with different wood chips species.

An appearance model plays a crucial rule in multi-target tracking. In traditional approaches, the two steps of appearance modeling i.e visual representation and statistically similarity measure are modeled separately. Visual representation is achieved either through hand-crafted features or deep features and statically similarity is measure through a cross entropy loss function. A loss function based on cross-entropy (KL-divergence, mutual information) find closely related probability distribution for the targets. However, if the targets have similar visual representation, it ends up mixing the targets. To tackle this problem, we come up with a synergetic appearance model named Single Shot Appearance Model based on Siamese neural network. The network is trained with a contrastive loss function for finding the similarity between different targets in a single shot. The input to the network is two target patches and based on their similarity, a contrastive score is output by the network. The proposed model is evaluated on accumulative dissimilarity metric on three datasets. Quantitatively, promising results are achieved against three baseline methods.

XGBoost is recognized as an algorithm with exceptional predictive capacity. Models for a binary response indicating the existence of accident claims vs. no claims can be used to identify the determinants of traffic accidents. We compare the relative performances of logistic regression and XGBoost approaches for predicting the existence of accident claims using telematics data. The dataset contains information from an insurance company about individuals’ driving patterns – including total annual distance driven and percentage of total distance driven in urban areas. Our findings show that logistic regression is a suitable model given its interpretability and good predictive capacity. XGBoost requires numerous model-tuning procedures to match the predictive performance of the logistic regression model and greater effort as regards interpretation.

Wave overtopping, i.e., excess of water over the crest of a coastal protection infrastructure due to wave run-up, of a smooth slope can be reduced by introducing slope roughness. A stepped revetment ideally constitutes a slope with uniform roughness. Apart from reducing overtopping, a stepped revetment provides safer access to a beach compared to conventional rubble. In recent years, research studies on stepped revetments have provided valuable findings regarding the performance and design optimization of stepped revetments as a typical mean of coastal protection. A stepped revetment can reduce overtopping volumes of breaking waves up to compared to a smooth slope. The effectiveness of the overtopping reduction decreases with increasing Iribarren number. However, up to date a unique approach applicable for a wide range of boundary conditions is still missing. The present paper critically reviews previous findings, gathers and analyzes data from previous studies and proposes a new formula for robust prediction of overtopping of stepped revetments. By means of this approach a critical assessment based on beforehand disclosed parameter ranges between a smooth slope on the one hand and a plain vertical wall on the other are contrasted. By analysis of a new data set compounded from different original studies a novel empirical formulation is derived to predict the roughness reduction coefficient of a stepped revetment for breaking and non-breaking waves. This coefficient is developed and adjusted for a direct incorporation into the present design guidelines. Underlying uncertainties are clearly addressed and quantified. Scale effects are highlighted.

The purpose of this study is to assess the concentration-response relations between conjunctivitis and exposure to ambient ozone. This retrospective study includes emergency department (ED) visits for conjunctivitis in Edmonton, Canada, for the period April 1992–March 2002. Daily average levels of ozone (range: 1.2–50.9, ppb), of temperature, and of relative humidity were estimated and used for the period of the study. For each of the considered exposure lags, (from 0 to 9 days), six different models were fitted to estimate the concentration-response function. The goodness of fit was assessed using the Akaike information criterion. During the period of the study, 17,211 ED visits for conjunctivitis were recorded and used. For all subjects together, a positive statistically significant association was obtained for the exposure lagged by 5 days. For female subjects, lags 1, 3, and 9 had positive statistically significant associations (lag 2 had negative associations). For male subjects, only lag 5 had a positive statistically significant association. The estimated non-linear concentration-response functions for the considered groups (all, males, females) and lags, revealed the associations along the exposure levels. The fitted shapes are described by algebraic functions and may have various forms. The estimated functions are useful to determine the risk associated with exposure to ground-level ozone.

Development of novel anti-cancer peptides requires a rapid screening process which can be accelerated by using appropriate in vitro tumor models. Breast carcinoma tissue is a three dimensional (3D) microenvironment, which contains a hypoxic center surrounded by dense proliferative tissue. Biochemical clues provided by such 3D cell mass cannot be recapitulated in conventional 2D culture systems. In this experiment, we evaluate the efficacy of the sandalwood peptide, cyclosaplin on established in vitro 3D silk breast cancer model using invasive MDA-MB-231 cell line. The anti-proliferative effect of the peptide on 3D silk tumor model is monitored by alamar blue assay, with conventional 2D culture as control. The proliferation rate, glucose consumed, LDH, and MMP-9 activity of Human breast cancer cells are higher in 3D constructs compared to 2D. A higher concentration of drug is required to achieve 50% cell death in 3D culture than 2D cultures. The cyclosaplin treated MDA-MB-231 cells showed significant decrease in MMP-9 activity in 3D constructs. Microscopic analysis revealed the formation of cell clusters evenly distributed in the scaffolds. The drug treated cells were less in number, smaller and showed unusual morphology. Overall, these findings indicate the role of cyclosaplin as a promising anti-cancer therapeutics.

The long term sustainability and longevity of the business life cycle depends on correct understanding of the contextual constituents, triggers and dynamics, pre-startup planning, strategy and financial forecasting where business plans are developed to understand and forecast project viability, pitch ideas and secure funding. At the same time there is a lack of one page startup business model. Identifying this need, a ‘startup business strategy frame’ has been developed through learnings and encompassing design thinking, the business canvas and other strategy models and approaches. It provides a logical sequential flow and connects value drivers on environmental, strategic including operational and financial levels of proposed startup in a sequential format. To arrive at the frame as a logical conclusion a website www.strategizestartup.com is developed to build startup business model and plans in a time and cost effective process. The website assists the startups at each stage through a work and guidebook. The website takes the user from creative ideation by charting the context to build the strategy and measuring the financial impact. This startup strategy model will alleviate the problems for the first and second stage entrepreneurs to ideate creatively and strategizing. It also eradicates the issues related to reading and understanding long plans which could be an exhaustive and cumbersome process.

Heat emitters constitute the primary devices used in space heating and cover a fundamental role in the energy efficient use of buildings. In the search for an optimized design, heating devices should be compared with a benchmark emitter with maximum heat emission efficiency. However, such an ideal heater still needs to be defined. In this paper we perform an analysis of heat transfer in a European reference room, considering room side effects of thermal radiation and computing the induced operative temperature both analytically and numerically. By means of functional optimization, we analyse trends such as the variation of operative temperature with radiator panel dimensions, finding optimal configurations. In order to make our definitions as general as possible, we address panel radiators, convectors, underfloor (UFH) and ceiling heater. We obtain analytical formulas for the operative temperature induced by panel radiators and identify the 10-type as our ideal radiator, while the UFH provides the best performance overall. Regarding specifically UFH and ceiling heaters, we find optimal sizes that identify the according ideal emitters. The analytical method and quantitative results reported in this paper can be generalized and adopted in most studies concerning the efficiency of different heat emitter types in building enclosures.

Earth atmosphere is almost opaque in the infrared: about 374 W/m² is absorbed by the atmosphere out of 396 W/m² surface upward longwave radiation, and only about 22 W/m² leaves the system unabsorbed in the atmospheric window. This makes rise to the idea to approximate the annual global mean energy flow system from a simple idealized greenhouse model, where the surface is surrounded by a single-layer shortwave (SW) transparent, longwave (LW) opaque, non-turbulent atmosphere. The energy flows in this geometry can be described by elementary arithmetic relationships. Starting from this model, the realistic Earth’s atmosphere can be achieved by introducing partial atmospheric SW opacity, partial atmospheric LW transparency and turbulent fluxes during the course of the deduction. The resulted global mean energy flow system is then compared to several data sets such as satellite observations from the CERES mission; estimates using direct surface observations and climate models; global energy and water cycle assessments; and independent detailed clear-sky radiative transfer computations. We find that the deduction from this idealized model approximates the real values in Earth energy budget with reasonable accuracy: the deduced fluxes and the observed ones are consistent within the acknowledged error of observations; while fundamental features of the initial geometry like special ratios and definite relationships between the fluxes are preserved.

In this paper, we revisit the q-states clock model for small systems. We present results for the thermodynamics of the q-states clock model from $q=2$ to $q=20$ for small square lattices $L \times L$, with L ranging from $L=3$ to $L=64$ with free-boundary conditions. Energy, specific heat, entropy and magnetization are measured. We found that the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT)-like transition appears for $q>5$ regardless of lattice size, while the transition at $q=5$ is lost for $L<10$; for $q\leq 4$ the BKT transition is never present. We report the phase diagram in terms of $q$ showing the transition from the ferromagnetic (FM) to the paramagnetic (PM) phases at a critical temperature T$_1$ for small systems which turns into a transition from the FM to the BKT phase for larger systems, while a second phase transition between the BKT and the PM phases occurs at T$_2$. We also show that the magnetic phases are well characterized by the two dimensional (2D) distribution of the magnetization values. We make use of this opportunity to do an information theory analysis of the time series obtained from the Monte Carlo simulations. In particular, we calculate the phenomenological mutability and diversity functions. Diversity characterizes the phase transitions, but the phases are less detectable as $q$ increases. Free boundary conditions are used to better mimic the reality of small systems (far from any thermodynamic limit). The role of size is discussed.

The following paper describes an economical, multiple model predictive control (EMMPC) for an air conditioning system of a confectionery manufacturer in Germany. The application consists of a packaging hall for chocolate bars, in which a new local conveyor belt air conditioning system is used and thus the temperature and humidity limits in the hall can be significantly extended. The EMMPC calculates the optimum energy or cost humidity and temperature set points in the hall. For this purpose, time-discrete state space models and an economic objective function with which it is possible to react to flexible electricity prices in a cost-optimised manner are created. A possible future electricity price model for Germany with a flexible EEG levy was used as a flexible electricity price. The flexibility potential is determined by variable temperature and humidity limits in the hall, which are oriented towards the comfort field for easily working persons, and the building mass. The building mass of the created room model is used as a thermal energy store. Considering electricity price and weather forecasts as well as internal, production plan-dependent load forecasts, the model predictive controller directly controls the heating and cooling register and the humidifier of the air conditioning system.

Memphis aquifer is the primary drinking water source in Shelby County (Tennessee, USA) and supplies industrial, commercial, and residential water. Memphis aquifer is separated from the Shallow aquifer by a clayey layer known as Upper Claiborne Confining Unit (UCCU). All of the production wells in the Memphis area are screened in the Memphis aquifer or even deeper in the Fort Pillow aquifer. Traditionally, it was assumed that the UCCU could fully protect the Memphis aquifer from the contaminated Shallow aquifer groundwater. However, recent studies show that at some locations the UCCU is thin or absent which possibly leads to the contribution of Shallow aquifer to the Memphis aquifer. Accurately locating the breaches demands expensive and difficult geological or geochemical investigations, especially within an urban area. Hence, a pre-field investigation to identify the locations where the presence of breaches is likely can significantly reduce the cost of field investigations and improve the their results. In this study, to identify the locations where the presence of breaches in the UCCU is likely we use three different analyses: (1) pilot point calibration (PPC), (2) velocity and flow budget (VFB), and (3) particle tracking (PT) to post-process the developed groundwater results. These pre-field numerical investigations provide relevant and defensible explanations for groundwater flow anomalies in an aquifer system for informed decision-making and future field investigations. In this study, we identify five specific zones within the broad study area which are reasonable candidates for the future field investigations. Finally, we test the results of each analysis against other evidence for breaches to demonstrate that the results of the numerical analyses are reliable and supported by previous studies.

Self-consciousness can be considered as the internal disposition to direct attention to oneself. This dispositional tendency can be focused on private aspects of the self, but also on public characteristics of the individual. We examine self-consciousness in online consumer behavior. This concept has been poorly investigated in consumer research. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of the dimensions of self-consciousness in consumer adoption of online shopping. This study is based on a sample of 725 Spanish undergraduates. Results indicated that public self-consciousness is a significant predictor of the adoption of online shopping.

Despite the expectation that social media use in the public sector contributes to enhancing government's transparency, few studies have been investigated whether social media use actually leads to more disclosure during environmental incidents in practice and how social media influence local governments and their officials' information disclosure. In this article, we model information disclosure during environmental incidents as an evolutionary game process between the central government and local government in social media context, and examine the internal mechanism that how social media influence the progress of information disclosure during environmental incidents. The findings indicate that social media plays an active constructive role in central-local government game relations. Specific- ally, social media can provides an efficient information channels for the central government supervise regional officials in environmental incidents, and thus improves its supervision efficiency, and it also provides an important means for internet mobilization and online-offline interaction by encouraging the public exchange information and express their views, and in turn forces local governments and their officials tend to disclosure ahead.

The paper aims to investigate on the determinants of the capital structure of the Italian SMEs and it is based on a large panel of Italian manufacturing SMEs observed in the years 2001-2013. The analysis achieves a comparative investigation between the capital structure of the firms belonging in the Southern region, the so-called Italian Mezzogiorno that is the slow growing area of the country, and the firms of the Center-northern region of Italy, that is the more developed area of the country. Fixed effect panel techniques applied to the several standard leverage models allows to reaffirm some distinctive features showing differences of the financial behavior of regional firms.

This study aims to find a communication model of contingency plan for disaster risk management of Sinabung Volcano eruption, in North Sumatera. The object of the research is communication and coordination across the government, non-government organization, and community. This study used planning theory, the concept of communication planning, and types of disaster management plan as tools for analysing. Descriptive qualitative is used as the method. Data collection was obtained from the focus group discussion (FGD), in-depth interviews, observation, and study documentation. There are three stages in descriptive qualitative research that is data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion. An analysis was conducted qualitatively on the program and competence actors. The results found the communication model of disaster risk management through documents of contingency planning to overcome the threat of Mount Sinabung eruption. During the emergency response period a core model was used to reduce the impact of the Mount Sinabung eruption. The contingency plan becomes the Karo District Government’s document. This document were authorized by an authorized official and is ready to be applied to the Emergency Response Operation Plan. Plans for emergency response operations are carried out based on information regarding damage and the need to obtain results of a quick review. Contingency plans are submitted to the legislature for political commitment and support and budget allocation.

The main aim of this paper is to explore the issue of big data and to propose a conceptual framework for big data, based on the temporal dimension. The Temporal Big Data Maturity Model (TBDMM) is a means for assessing organization’s readiness to fully profit from big data analysis. It allows the measurement of the current state of the organization’s big data assets and analytical tools, and to plan their future development. The framework explicitly incorporates a time dimension, providing a complete means for assessing also the readiness to process temporal data and/or knowledge that can be found in modern sources, such as big data ones. Temporality in the proposed framework extends and enhances the already existing maturity models for big data. This research paper is based on a critical analysis of literature, as well as creative thinking, and on the case-study approach involving multiple cases. The literature-based research has shown that the existing maturity models for big data do not treat the temporal dimension as the basic one. At the same time, dynamic analytics is crucial for a sustainable competitive advantage. This conceptual framework was well received among practitioners, to whom it has been presented during interviews. The participants in the consultations often expressed their need of temporal big data analytics, and hence the temporal approach of the maturity model was widely welcomed.

The capacity of 3D printing (3DP) technologies to initiate speedy polymerization of solvent free resins accounts for their utility in the manufacturing of medical devices. Nonetheless, independent biological evaluation of 3D printed materials is recommended due to the unique parameters of the manufacturing process, which can influence their physical, chemical, and biological properties. In this study, E-Shell 450 material indicated for 3DP of hearing aid shells and inner ear devices was examined for biological safety using zebrafish bioassays adapted to OECD fish embryo test. In addition, the proprietary material was characterized for composition using headspace gas-chromatography mass spectrometry (GC-MS). To initiate test, newly fertilized zebrafish eggs were cultured on non-treated and ethanol-treated materials in glass petri dishes with ultrapure water, incubated at 28.5°C and assessed for developmental endpoints of toxicity at 24h interval until 96h. Data confirmed non-treated material was extremely toxic in bioassays within 24h whereas ethanol-treated material showed a relative lower toxicity possibly due to ethanoic-aqueous interactions as observed by GC-MS. With the current influx of 3D printing materials, users are urged to exercise caution. Operators must also take cognizance of the potential toxicity of the chemicals used in 3DP and implement safety measures to limit their exposure.

Thermal infrared imagery provides temperature information on target objects, and has been widely applied in non-destructive testing. However, thermal infrared imagery is not always able to display detailed textures of inspected objects, which hampers the understanding of geometric entities consisting of temperature information. Although some commercial software has been developed for 3D thermal model displays, the software requires the use of expensive specific thermal infrared sensors. This study proposes a cost-effective method for 3D thermal model reconstruction based on image-based modeling. Two smart phones and a low-cost thermal infrared camera are employed to acquire visible images and thermal images, respectively, that are fused for 3D thermal model reconstruction. The experiment results demonstrate that the proposed method is able to effectively reconstruct a 3D thermal model which extremely approximates its corresponding entity. The total computation time for the 3D thermal model reconstruction is intensive while generating dense points required for the creation of a geometric entity. Future work will improve the efficiency of the proposed method in order to expand its potential applications to in-time monitoring.

The R&D and propagation of sustainable appropriate technology requires the provision of stable funding. Crowdfunding is a form of funding whereby small sums of investments or contributions are collected from among the general public and used to finance the development of goods or services. This method has been in use widely in arts and culture fields, and presents a useful alternative means for funding appropriate technology projects. The aim of this study is to identify the factors influencing the backers who participate in appropriate technology projects through crowdfunding platforms, analyzing the relationships between these factors, and thereby establishing the usefulness of crowdfunding as a viable new alternative. The analysis results indicate that key factors influencing user intention to crowdfund appropriate technology projects include social influence, effort expectancy, and perceived trust. In contrast to the findings of previous studies, performance expectancy was not found to have a significant effect. This reflects the fact that, compared to the crowdfunding conducted for other purposes, crowdfunding for appropriate technology is closer in nature to donations. These findings indicate that for funding to be successful, aggressive online exposure using the SNS of backers should be pursued from the early stages of funding.

We generalize the idea of quantum clock time to quantum spacetime reference frame via physical realization of a reference system by quantum rulers and clocks. Omitting the internal degrees of freedom (such as spins) of the physical rulers and clocks, only considering their metric properties, the spacetime reference frame is described by a bosonic non-linear sigma model (NLSM). We study the quantum behavior of the system under approximations, and obtain (1) a cosmological constant valued (2/π)ρ_c0 (ρ_c0 the critical density at near current epoch) which is very close to the observations; (2) an effective Einstein-Hilbert term; (3) the ratio of variance to mean-squared of spacetime interval tends to a universal constant 2/π in the infrared region. This effect is testable by observing a linear dependence between the inherent quantum variance and mean-squared of the redshifts from cosmic distant spectral lines. The proportionality is expected to be the observed percentage of the dark energy. The equivalence principle is also generalized to the quantum level.

Sustainability addresses environmental and social issues affecting this and future generations. When family businesses perceive that the community is disrupted, recognize an environmental problem and respond by implementing new environmental policies or regulations, the family business’s socio-emotional values press to transition to a more sustainable production system, such as the ‘Circular Economy.’ Drawing on the Dubin (1978) methodology—a paradigm for building models through deduction—we design a sustainable model, which shows family businesses’ responses to changes in the environment. It explains the reasons why family firms transition to the Circular Economy, based on the theory of Socio-Emotional Wealth (SEW). We check the model through the case study of the food retail leader in the Spanish market—Mercadona—which applies policies about energy, resources and waste to become a Circular Economy business model. Because of the strong family character of Mercadona, this case can be useful for the decision-making of other family businesses.

Based on the fractional order of nonlinear system for love model with a periodic function as an external force, analyzed the characteristics of the chaotic dynamic in this study. The relationship between the chaotic dynamic of the fractional-love model with the external force and the fractional-order system was analyzed when the parameters are fixed. Further, we also studied the relationship between the chaotic systemic dynamic and the parameters when the fractional-order system is fixed. The results show that when the parameters are fixed, the fractional-order system exhibited segmented chaotic states for the different fractional orders of the system. When fixed the fractional-order system, the system exhibited the periodic and chaotic states as parameter changes.

Interface between matrix/coating or coating/coating in fact represents a very complicate thin interfacial layer. So interface model is necessary to avoid the difficulty on considering such a complicate thin layer in analysis. Classic interface model and cohesive model have been widely used in stress analysis of coating materials, though they cannot represent the effect of very thin interfacial layer accurately. A complete interface model has been deduced from the equivalent constitutive of interfacial layer in this paper. It is found that both classic interface model and cohesive model sometimes cannot give correct analysis results, while the complete interface model can always give a correct result. Moreover, the stress parallel to interface within the interfacial layer can also be analyzed by the new model. Besides, this model can also be used to describe the equivalent properties of interfacial layer, thereby, can provide a quantitative characterizing method for interfacial layer itself.

Starting with a hypothetical geostrophic zonal current in an unbounded ocean, the investigation points out the response of this simple system to a thermal forcing, applied to the free surface and consistent with the maintenance of the geostrophic balance. The main result is the formation of a meridional component of the current, according to the Sverdrup relation, such that the full velocity vector rotates clockwise for heating and anticlockwise for cooling to adjust eventually in the initial zonal direction for large depths.

GNSS have been widely used in navigation, positioning and timing. Nowadays, the multipath errors previously considered detrimental may be re-utilized for the remote sensing of geophysical parameters (soil moisture, vegetation and snow depth), e.g. GPS- Multipath Reflectometry (GPS-MR). In this paper, a new element describing bistatic scattering properties of vegetation is incorporated into the traditional GPS-MR model. This new element is the first-order radiative transfer equation model. The new forward GPS multipath simulator is able to explicitly link the vegetation parameters with GPS multipath observables (signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR), code pseudorange and carrier phase observables). The trunk layer and its corresponding scattering mechanisms are ignored since GPS-MR is not suitable for high forest monitoring due to the coherence of direct and reflected signals. Based on this new model linking the GPS observables (SNR, phase and pseudorange) with detailed vegetation parameters, the developed simulator can present how the GPS signals (L1 and L2 carrier frequencies, C/A, P(Y) and L2C modulations) are transmitted (scattered and absorbed) through vegetation medium and received by GPS receivers. Simulation results show that wheat will decrease the amplitudes of GPS multipath observables, if we increase the vegetation moisture contents or the scatters sizes (stem or leaf), the amplitudes of GPS multipath observables (SNR, phase and code) decrease. Although the Specular-Ground component dominates the total specular scattering, vegetation covered ground soil moisture has almost no effects on the final multipath signatures. Our simulated results are consistent with published results for environmental parameter detections with GPS-MR.

Copper demand for a country's copper industry has a greater pull effect. China's copper consumption in 2015 has accounted for 50% of the world. The scientific forecast of China's copper demands trend is also an important basis for analyzing its future environmental impact. This paper assumes that China's economy will be developing high, medium and low scenarios, and forecasts economic and social indicators such as total GDP, population and per capita GDP in China from 2016 to 2030. Then, predicted the demand of copper resources in China from 2016 to 2030 by the combination of system dynamics model, vector autoregressive moving average model and inverted U-type empirical model. The results show that: (1) in 2020, 2025 and 2030, China's refined copper demand will be 13 Mt, 15 Mt and 15.5 Mt. (2) China's copper demand growth slowed down significantly from 2016-2030. (3) 2025-2030, China's copper resource demand is stable, into the platform of demand growth, the highest peak value in 2027 will be 15.5 Mt. (4) 2030 years later, China's copper resource demand will enter a slow decline.

The modeling of flood-induced bend scour near embankment toes can provide important information for river engineering, embankment safety warnings, and emergency action management. During the rainy seasons, short-term general scour and bend scour are the most common causes for the failure of reinforced concrete embankments in Taiwan. To gain a deeper understanding of the scouring process near levee foundations, this study proposed a straightforward and practical method for bend scour simulation. The proposed simulation method is subdivided into three stages: two-dimensional flow simulation, general scour estimation, and bend scour estimation. A new bend-scour computation equation is proposed and incorporated into a two-dimensional hydraulic finite-volume model for simulating the evolution of bend scour depth around embankment toes. The proposed method is applied to simulate the temporal evolution of bend scouring near the Shuideliaw Embankment on the Cho-Shui River in Taiwan, where serious failure occurred during the June 2012 monsoon. Field data were gathered using the numbered-brick technique at the Shuideliaw Embankment to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. The results of the bend scour simulations compared reasonably well with field measurements, indicating close agreement in terms of water levels and bend scour depths near the Shuideliaw Embankment. The proposed method was found to quickly estimate the maximum short-term general scour and bend scour depths for further enhancement of the safety of the embankment toe.

This article considers the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development in relation to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. We conceptualize sustainability from a social systemic perspective, that is, from a perspective that encompasses the multiple functionalities of a social system and their interrelationships in particular environmental contexts. The systems perspective is applied in our consideration and analysis of disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and sustainable development (SD). Section 1 introduces briefly sustainability and sustainable development, followed by a brief presentation of the theory of complex social systems (Section 2). The theory conceptualizes interdependent subsystems, their multiple functionalities, and the agential and systemic responses to internal and external stressors on a social system. Section 3 considers disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA), emerging in response to one or more systemic stressors. It illustrates these with disaster risk reduction in the cases of food and chemical security regulation in the EU. CCA is illustrated by initiatives and developments on the island of Gotland, Sweden and in the Gothenburg Metropolitan area, which go beyond a limited CCA perspective, taking into account long-term sustainability issues. Section 4 discusses the limitations of DRR and CCA, not only their technical limitations but economic, socio-cultural, and political limitations, as informed from a sustainability perspective. It is argued that DRRs are only partial subsystems and must be considered and assessed in the context of a more encompassing systemic perspective. Part of the discussion is focused on the distinction between sustainable and non-sustainable DRRs and CCAs. Section 5 presents a few concluding remarks about the importance of a systemic perspective in analyzing DRR and CCA as well as other similar subsystems in terms of sustainable development.

Empirically based modeling is an essential aspect of design for a wave energy converter. These models are used in structural, mechanical and control design processes, as well as for performance prediction. The design of experiments and methods used to produce models from collected data have a strong impact on the quality of the model. This study considers the system identification and model validation process based on data collected from a wave tank test of a model-scale wave energy converter. Experimental design and data processing techniques based on general system identification procedures are discussed and compared with the practices often followed for wave tank testing. The general system identification processes are shown to have a number of advantages. The experimental data is then used to produce multiple models for the dynamics of the device. These models are validated and their performance is compared against one and other. While most models of wave energy converters use a formulation with wave elevation as an input, this study shows that a model using a hull pressure sensor to incorporate the wave excitation phenomenon has better accuracy.

(1) Background: There is insufficient empirical evidence on the correlates of health care utilization of irregular migrants currently living in Turkey. The aim of this study was to identify individual level determinants associated with health service and medication use. (2) Methods: 155 Afghans completed surveys assessing service utilization including encounters with primary care physicians and outpatient specialists in addition to the use of prescription and nonprescription medicines. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to examine associations between service use and a range of predisposing, enabling, and perceived need factors. (3) Results: Health services utilization was lowest for outpatient specialists (20%) and highest for nonprescription medications (37%). Female gender and higher income predicted encounters with primary care physicians. Income, and other enabling factors such as family presence in Turkey predicted encounters with outpatient specialists. Perceived illness-related need factors had little to no influence on use of services; however, asylum difficulties increased the likelihood for encounters with primary care physicians, outpatient services, and the use of prescription medications. 4) Conclusion: This study suggests that health services use among Afghan migrants in Turkey is low considering the extent of their perceived illness-related needs, which may be further exacerbated by the precarious conditions in which they live.

Climate simulations in West Africa have been attributed with large uncertainties. Global climate projections are not consistent with changes in observations at the regional or local level of the Niger basin, making management of hydrological projects in the basin uncertain. This study evaluates the potential of using the quantile mapping bias correction to improve the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) outputs for use in hydrology impact studies. Rainfall and temperature projections from 8 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) were bias corrected using the quantile mapping approach. Impacts of climate change was evaluated with bias corrected rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET). The IHACRES hydrological model was adapted to the Niger basin and used to simulate impacts of climate change on discharge under present and future conditions. Bias correction significantly improved the accuracy of rainfall and temperature simulations compared to observations. Nash coefficient (NSE) for monthly rainfall comparisons of 8 GCMs to the observed was improved by bias correction from 0.69 to 0.84. The standard deviations among the 8 GCM rainfall data were significantly reduced from 0.13 to 0.03. Increasing rainfall, temperature, PET and river discharge were projected for all GCMs used in this study under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results will help improving projections and contribute to the development of sustainable climate change adaptation strategies.

The study examines the behavior of the Mechanically Stabilized Earth (MSE) wall using available reinforcement materials in Danang, Vietnam. The MSE was reinforced by the self-fabricated galvanized steel grids using CB300V steel with 3 cm ribs. The backfill soil is a sandy clay soil from the local area with a low cohesion. A full-scale model with full instrumentation was installed to investigate the distribution of tensile forces along the reinforcement layers. The highest load that caused the wall to collapse due to internal instability (reinforcement rupture) was 302 kN/m2, which is 15 times the design load of 20 kN/m2. The failure surface within the reinforced soil had a parabolic sliding shape which is similar to the theoretical studies. At the failure load level, the maximum lateral displacement at the top of the wall facing was small (3.9 mm) which is significantly lower than the allowable displacements for the retaining wall. Furthermore, a numerical model using FLAC software was applied to simulate the performance of the MSE wall. The modeling results are in good agreement with the physical model. Thus, the self-fabricated galvanized steel grids could be confidentially used in combination with the local backfill soil for the MSE walls.

Electrifying off-grid and isolated islands in the Philippines remains one of the challenges that hinders community development. One of the solutions seen to ensure energy security, expand energy access and promote a low carbon future in this isolated islands is the use of renewable energy sources. This study wishes to determine the nearshore wave energy resource during monsoon seasons in Cuyo Island using a 40-year wave hindcast and 9-year on-site wind speed data to develop high resolution wave energy model using SWAN wave model, and assessed its annual energy production through matching with wave energy devices. Results shows that average significant wave height (Hs), peak period (Tp) and wave power density (Pd) during northeast monsoon are Hs = 1.35 m, Tp = 4.79 s and Pd = 4.05 kW/m respectively, while southwest monsoon which is sheltered by the mainland resulted to a lesser outcome, Hs = 0.52 m, Tp = 3.37 s and Pd = 0.34 kW/m. While the simulated model was observed to overestimate the wave energy resource (Bias = 0.398, RMSE = 0.54 and SI = 1.34), it has a strong relationship with the observed values (average r = 0.9). Its annual energy production is highest at Station 5, with AEPWaveBouy = 43.761 MWh, AEP-Pelamis = 216.786 MWh and AEPWave Dragon = 2462.66 MWh. At present, the minimum requirement for a wave energy development to be feasible is 5 kW/m, which in this case, Cuyo Island falls short, but with the continuous evolution of wave energy converters, applications on milder re-sources will soon materialized.

This paper develops Bayesian inference in reliability of a class of scale mixtures of log-normal failure time (SMLNFT) models with stochastic (or uncertain) constraint in their reliability measures. The class is comprehensive and includes existing failure time (FT) models (such as log-normal, log-Cauchy, and log-logistic FT models) as well as new models that are robust in terms of heavy-tailed FT observations. Since classical frequency approaches to reliability analysis based on the SMLNFT model with stochastic constraint are intractable, the Bayesian method is pursued utilizing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling based approach. This paper introduces a two-stage maximum entropy (MaxEnt) prior, which elicits a priori uncertain constraint and develops Bayesian hierarchical SMLNFT model by using the prior. The paper also proposes an MCMC method for Bayesian inference in the SMLNFT model reliability and calls attention to properties of the MaxEnt prior that are useful for method development. Finally, two data sets are used to illustrate how the proposed methodology works.

Assuming a two component, positive and negative mass, superfluid/supersolid for space (the Winterberg model), we model the Higgs field as a condensate made up of a positive and a negative mass, planckion pair. The connection is shown to be consistent (compatible) with the underlying field equations for each field, and the continuity equation is satisfied for both species of planckions, as well as for the Higgs field. An inherent length scale for space (the vacuum) emerges, which we estimate from previous work to be of the order of,

Estimation of core and surface temperature is one of the crucial functionalities of the lithium-ion Battery Management System (BMS) towards providing effective thermal management, fault detection and operational safety. While, it is impractical to measure core temperature using physical sensors, implementing a complex estimation strategy in on-board low-cost BMS is challenging due to high computational cost and the cost of implementation. Typically, a temperature estimation scheme consists of a heat generation model and a heat transfer model. Several researchers have already proposed ranges of thermal models having different levels of accuracy and complexity. Broadly, there are first-order and second-order heat capacitor-resistor-based thermal models of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) for core and surface temperature estimation. This paper deals with a detailed comparative study between these two models using extensive laboratory test data and simulation study to access suitability in online prediction and onboard BMS. The aim is to guide whether it’s worth investing towards developing a second-order model instead of a first-order model with respect to prediction accuracy considering modelling complexity, experiments required and the computational cost. Both the thermal models along with the parameter estimation scheme are modelled and simulated using MATLAB/Simulink environment. Models are validated using laboratory test data of a cylindrical 18650 LIB cell. Further, a Kalman Filter with appropriate process and measurement noise levels are used to estimate the core temperature in terms of measured surface and ambient temperatures. Results from the first-order model and second-order models are analyzed for comparison purposes.

We propose a model for gravity based on the gravitational polarization of space. With this model, we can relate the density parameters within the Friedmann model, and show that dark matter is bound mass formed from massive dipoles set up within the vacuum surrounding ordinary matter. Aggregate matter induces a gravitational field within the surrounding space, which reinforces the original field. Dark energy, on the other hand, is the energy density associated with gravitational fields both for ordinary matter, and bound, or induced dipole matter. At high CBR temperatures, the cosmic susceptibility, induced by ordinary matter vanishes, as it is a smeared or average value for the cosmos as a whole. Even though gravitational dipoles do exist, no large scale alignment or ordering is possible. Our model assumes that space, i.e., the vacuum, is filled with a vast assembly (sea) of positive and negative mass particles having Planck mass, called planckions, which is based on extensive work by Winterberg. These original particles form a very stiff two component superfluid, where positive and negative mass species neutralize one another already at the submicroscopic level, leading to zero net mass, zero net gravitational pressure, and zero net entropy, for the undisturbed medium. It is theorized that the gravitational dipoles form from such material positive and negative particles, and moreover, this causes an intrinsic polarization of the vacuum for the universe as a whole. We calculate that in the present epoch, the smeared or average susceptibility of the cosmos equals, , and the overall resulting polarization equals, . Moreover, due to all the ordinary mass in the universe, made up of quarks and leptons, we calculate a net gravitational field having magnitude, . This smeared or average value permeates all of space, and can be deduced by any observer, irrespective of location within the universe. This net gravitational field is forced upon us by Gauss’s law, and although technically a surface gravitational field, it is argued that this surface, smeared value holds point for point in the observable universe. A complete theory of gravitational polarization is presented. In contrast to electrostatics, gravistatics leads to anti-screening of the original source field, increasing the original value, , to, , where is the induced or polarized field. In the present epoch, this leads to a bound mass, , where is the sum of all ordinary source matter in the universe, and equals the relative permittivity. A new radius, and new mass, for the observable universe is dictated by the density parameters in Friedmann's equation, and Gauss’s law. These lead to the very precise values, , and, , respectively, somewhat larger than current less accurate estimates.

We propose the Hamiltonian formalism of Bianchi type 1 cosmological model for perfect fluid. We have considered both the equation of state parameter ω and the cosmological constant Λ as the function of volume V(t) which is defined by the product of three scale factors of the Bianchi type 1 line element. We propose a Lagrangian for the anisotropic Bianchi type-1 model in view of a variable mass moving in a variable potential . We can decompose the anisotropic expansion in terms of expansion and shearing motion by Lagrangian mechanism. We have considered a canonical transformation from expanding scale factor to scalar field ø which helps us to give the proper classical definition of that scalar field in terms of scale factors of the mentioned model. This definition helps us to explain the cosmological inflation. We have used large anisotropy(as in the cases of Bianchi models) and proved that cosmic inflation is not possible in such large anisotropy. Therefore we can conclude that the extent of anisotropy is less in case of our universe. Otherwise the inflation theory which explained the limitations of Big Bang cannot be resolved.Part II is contained with some analysis of the lagrangian ; derived in Part I ; on the quintessence model.

The application of OpenAI's advanced artificial intelligence language model, ChatGPT, in education has garnered widespread attention from the academic community. The openness and intelligence features of ChatGPT demonstrate great potential and value in supporting students' learning, daily life, and communication. This study, grounded in the theoretical frameworks of Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT) and the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), conducted a systematic empirical analysis through a questionnaire survey of 677 university students who had used or were currently using ChatGPT. The results indicate that the six perceived attributes of innovation significantly influence university students' behavioral intention to use ChatGPT, while attitudes towards ChatGPT, perceived usefulness, and perceived ease of use indirectly influence students' behavioral intention to continue using ChatGPT. Based on the findings of this study, we propose an extended Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) that incorporates key elements of Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT) to optimize the application of advanced technologies, such as ChatGPT, in education, thereby improving students' learning efficiency and behavioral performance. These findings not only provide important insights into the complex relationships between college students’ perceptions of ChatdGPT technology and predictors of behavioral intentions, but can also help relevant education departments, higher education institutions, and university teachers to effectively plan and evaluate the use of ChatGPT as a learning tool.

As the largest carbon pool on Earth, forest ecosystems are essential to maintaining carbon sink balance. However, accurately estimating the carbon sequestration and carbon storage of forest resources remains an urgent issue to address. Plot investigation, model estimation, and machine learning are examples of current approaches. Nevertheless, because of variables such as regional characteristics and plot size, large-scale and extensive region estimates are comparatively scarce. This study, which focuses on Tianzhu County, aims to comprehensively analyze and estimate the Net Primary Productivity (NPP), carbon storage, and carbon density of the forest ecosystem in this area by integrating data from forest resource inventory and the CASA model. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The main vegetation types in Tianzhu County include coniferous forests, broad-leaved forests, mixed forests, and shrub forests; (2) Accordin g to the CASA model calculations, the annual cumulative NPP in Tianzhu County in 2020 ranges from a maximum of 249.63 gC/m² to a minimum of 3.40 gC/m², with the forest NPP amounting to 134,674.65 tons of carbon. Based on MODIS observation data, the forest’s NPP is 171,728.32 tons of carbon, with a maximum of 325.36 gC/m² and a minimum of 0.02 gC/m²; (3) At the pixel scale, the carbon storage of forests in Tianzhu County is 361,700 tons. Specifically, 46,500 tons of carbon are stored in coniferous forests, 1,100 tons in broad-leaved forests, 500 tons in mixed forests, and 313,600 tons in shrub forests.

With the introduction of policies to promote intangible cultural heritage into schools, intangible cultural heritage plays an increasingly important role in primary education. However, the implementation of the intangible cultural heritage policy in primary schools is mostly formalized, which leads to many problems in the introduction of intangible cultural heritage, such as mainly staying at the level of visual display and public opinion publicity, carrying out a small number of intangible cultural experience activities, and insufficient materialization and scenization of intangible cultural heritage, so that students cannot feel the inherent charm of intangible cultural heritage. In order to promote the development of intangible cultural heritage education, this paper uses the AGIL model of Parsons, literature analysis, case analysis and interview methods to study the promotion path of intangible cultural heritage in primary schools, and proposes solutions such as setting educational goals for school segments, setting up intangible cultural experience activities in schools, combining intangible cultural heritage with subject courses, and establishing a good maintenance mode. After the program is applied into practice, it is found that the use of storytelling by teachers to popularize the relevant knowledge of intangible cultural heritage is conducive to stimulating students' interest and prompting students to think. In addition, teaching and life practice should be combined, and students' five education should be emphasized at the same time to avoid teaching uniformity.

[Introduction]: In the contemporary international financial environment, marked by intricate complexities and increasing uncertainties, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on national economies has become increasingly significant. In this context, this study uses the Chinese economy as a case study to delve deeply into the interaction effects between macroprudential and monetary policies, analyzing how these policies jointly address economic instability. The aim is to offer new perspectives and strategies for stabilizing the global economic and financial landscape. [Methods]: This paper constructs an open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model specifically tailored for China, incorporating Bayesian estimation and numerical simulation techniques. The study meticulously examines how macroprudential and monetary policies can be coordinated to achieve economic stability in response to exchange rate shocks. [Results]: The research finds that (1) targeted coordination of macroprudential and monetary policies towards asset prices and price levels can maintain stability under exchange rate shocks; (2) the effective implementation of such coordinated policies not only mitigates the fluctuations in asset prices due to exchange rate shocks but also enhances the level of societal welfare; (3) in terms of choosing an exchange rate regime, a managed floating rate system can prevent policy overlaps and conflicts that might occur in a floating rate system during the coordination of macroprudential and monetary policies, thus offering comparative advantages. [Discussion]: The findings underscore the importance of policy integration in a dynamic and complex global economic environment. They provide policy recommendations for China and other emerging market countries on how to effectively maintain economic stability through the synergistic interplay of macroprudential and monetary policies amid fluctuations in exchange rates and asset prices.

Identification of drug targets and biochemical investigations on mechanisms of action is a are major issues in modern drug development. The present article reviews the classical “one drug” – “one target” paradigm. Novel methods for target deconvolution and for investigation of resistant strains based on protein mass spectrometry have shown that multiple gene products and adapta-tion mechanisms are involved in responses of pathogens to xenobiotics. This review is focused on protozoan pathogens. The conclusions can, however, be extended to chemotherapies against other pathogens or cancer. For this review we have searched Pubmed (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov) and Web of Science (webofscience.com) using the key words listed below (status May 2024)

We consider creation of entanglement between the remote electron spins using a magnetic nanoparticle attached to a cantilever tip (CT). We assume that the frequency of the CT vibrations matches the Larmor frequency of the spin (the CT-spin resonance). In the conditions of the CT-spin resonance the CT-spin system is described by the exactly solvable Jaynes-Kummings model. In this work using the evolution operator of the Jaynes-Kummings model we show that a movable CT can create an entangled state between the remote spins. The most striking result is that the entanglement between the remote spins can be achieved without measurement of the vibrational state of the CT.