In this paper we compare the effects of forecasting demand using individual (disaggregated) components versus first aggregating the components either fully or into several clusters. Demand streams are assumed to follow autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. Using individual demand streams will always lead to a superior forecast compared to any aggregates, however we show that if several aggregated clusters are formed in a structured manner then these subaggregated clusters will lead to a forecast with minimal increase in mean-squared forecast error. We show this result based on theoretical MSFE obtained directly from the models generating the clusters as well as estimated MSFE obtained directly from simulated demand observations. We suggest a pivot-algorithm, that we call Pivot Clustering, to create these clusters. We also provide theoretical results to investigate sub-aggregation, including for special cases such as, aggregating MA(1) streams and ARMA streams with similar or same parameters.

Ever since oil was discovered in the Persian Gulf Region in the 1920s, the oil and gas industries have been dominant in the area. These countries are responsible for generating approximately 35 percent of the world's natural gas and 25 percent of its crude oil, making them the largest crude oil producers globally. The release of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere is directly linked to the use of fossil fuels. CO2 accounts for 58.8 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities and has a detrimental impact on urban residents through the urban heat island effect. A significant portion of these emissions can be attributed to residential buildings. Some nations exacerbate the problem by relying excessively on fossil fuels. Oil-rich countries provide energy subsidies to the public in order to lower energy costs for their citizens. However, this policy can have negative consequences, including wasteful energy usage in countries like Iran.

Policies to require front-of-package labels (FOPLs) on foods may help Indian consumers better identify foods high in nutrients of concern including sugar, saturated fat, and sodium, and discourage their consumption, outcomes critical for preventing rises in diet-related non-communicable disease. The objective was to test whether FOPLs helped Indian consumers identify ‘high-in’ foods and reduce intentions to purchase them. We conducted an in-person randomized experiment (n=2,869 adults between ages 18 and 60 years old) in six states of India in 2022. Participants were randomized to one of five FOPLs: a control label (barcode), warning label (octagon with “High in [nutrient]”), Health Star Warning (HSR), Guideline Daily Amount (GDA), or traffic light label. Participants then viewed a series of foods high in sugar, saturated fat, or sodium with the assigned FOPL, and rated product perceptions and label reactions. Fewer than half of participants in the control group (39.1%) correctly identified all products high in nutrient(s) of concern. All FOPLs led to an increase in this outcome, with the biggest differences observed for the warning label (60.8%, p<0.001) followed by the traffic light label (54.8%, p<0.001), GDA (55.0%, p<0.001), and HSR (45.0%, p<0.01). Relative to the control, only the warning label led to a reduction in intentions to purchase the products. The results suggest that warning labels are the most effective FOPL to help Indian consumers identify and avoid unhealthy foods.

Uganda possesses natural rainforests that serve enormous environmental ecosystems and biodiversity services. Moreover, the country is known for its various tropical rainforest hardwoods, birds, and animal species. Over the years, the trend in the natural forest land has declined at an alarming rate; hence need to investigate the possible drivers. The loss of such biodiversity and ecosystems risks desertification and extreme climatic condition. As the world moves towards Zero Deforestation 2030, understanding the determinants of deforestation and forest degradation is paramount. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to understand the impact and relationships between net forest conversion, energy emission, agriculture, and forest production of Roundwood. We used data from FAO for the period 2004-2016. Using the ADF and KPSS test, we checked for the unit root presence in the variables. Also, the study used two different regression models: multiple linear regression and dynamic linear model. To analyze the determinants of deforestation, we used net forest conversion in Uganda. There was 94 % variation in the dependent variable (Net Forest conversion). The outcome of the dynamic linear regression showed that agriculture and energy emission positively impact net forest conversion. Based on our findings, this study recommended the modernization of agriculture by the government of Uganda to stop cutting down the forests on a big scale. Also, the study suggested that the government strictly legislate Roundwood and wood fuels/charcoal and firewood to reduce huge dependency on forests toward Zero-Deforestation by 2030. If well-structured and implemented, government policies could solve the unnecessary over dependency on the rainforest, the heart of the region's climatic conditions.

A harmful impact of climate change and global warming has concerned various sectors of the international community. Numerous energy policies aiming at climate change mitigation have been implemented on a national and global scale. Renewable Energy Technologies (RET) play a critical role in enhancing sustainable solutions that significantly limit greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. Such innovative technologies can facilitate energy transition through providing e.g. energy security, sustainable development, or effective usage of indigenous resources. However, the commercialization of RET becomes extremely challenging. The barriers can be of a different nature, although in this study the focus has been put on socio-economic and regulatory issues. In fact, there is ample evidence that energy policies play a central role in supporting renewables adoption. It is also claimed that RET require the whole ecosystem to support their successful diffusion. In this study, we explore multifarious barriers for a widespread RET diffusion in two European Union countries: Finland and Poland, indicating the most common barriers existing in the literature as well as analyzing major bottlenecks in the viewpoint of renewable energy companies’ executives. We also present statistics of the most commonly used RET in these countries in order to express the diffusion issues more appropriately. The outcomes of this study provide useful insight for the researchers in the energy transition field as well as practical managerial and regulatory implications aimed at overcoming these challenges.

We provide methodology and numerical results for the Hattendorff differential equa- tion for the continuous time evolution of the variance of L(j)t , the loss at time t random variable for a multi-state process, given that the state at time t is j.

Green credit policy as an important tool to guide China's sustainable economic development, how to effectively play the function of capital deployment and improve the efficiency of industrial green innovation is an important issue facing the construction of ecological civilization. This paper uses China's Green Credit Guideline introduced in 2012 as a quasi-natural experiment , based on relevant panel data of industries from 2007 to 2018, uses the Super-SBM model including non-expected output to measure the green innovation efficiency of 35 industries in China, and constructs the PSM-DID model to explore how green credit policy impact on the green innovation efficiency of heavily polluted industries, the results show that : green credit policy significantly contributes to green innovation efficiency of heavily polluted industries with a lag. Further study finds that green credit policy pushes heavily polluted industries to improve green innovation efficiency by increasing financing cost and R&D investment; meanwhile, the heterogeneity test shows that the higher the state-owned share of industry, the greater the promoted effect of green credit policy on green innovation efficiency of heavily polluted industries. Finally, in order to accelerate the implementation of green credit policy and promote the green innovation efficiency of heavily polluted industries, relevant countermeasures are proposed from three aspects: banks, enterprises and government.

The aim of the study is to characterize the U.S. and Lithuanian defense cooperation from 1990–2020 including arms procurements. Findings suggest close defense cooperation between countries at Presidential, Congressional, and Defense Ministry/Secretary levels. The most developed cooperation areas are joint participation in international operations, improvements of the Lithuanian Armed Forces’ capabilities, and an increase of the U.S. military presence in the Baltic region. An analysis of Lithuanian defense procurements between 1990–2020 indicates that the majority of defense armaments were acquired from the U.S. using the Foreign Military Sales venue while other options to obtain armaments were not used.

When we talk about the Defence Industry (DI), arms transfers, and military expenditures we mostly refer to data accumulated by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). In the SIPRI Top 20 list of largest exporters of major arms for 2019, small states hold consecutive positions: Israel takes 8th place, Switzerland is 13th, and Sweden, Norway, and Belarus place 15th, 17th, and 20th respectively. The author analyses the Swiss DI case due to several reasons; its place in SIPRI Top, its sharp rise of Swiss arms exports in the recent year, its Swiss neutrality strategy, the country’s multilingual society, and its all-government approach to the arms industry, though still contributing to the limited scholarly studies on contemporary Swiss DI. This paper aims to explore Swiss DI and its strategies, to identify the country’s defence and security policy influence towards DI, and to discuss the Swiss DI stance and future perspectives in the context of the global arms trade. At the same time, this paper also highlights Swiss DI successes and failures that could be of significant use to other small states aiming to develop or enhance their relevant DIs.

Pesticides have a vital contribution to the agricultural industry in Australia. However, pesticide applications may not always selective to its target organism. Exposure to pesticide has been associated with negative impacts to human health. One of the ways to reduce pesticide risk to the population and the environment is through government regulations. To put Australia pesticide regulations into perspective, comparisons were made between Australia and other nation’s pesticides regulations. The EU pesticide regulatory system was chosen for comparison with the Australian’s in the aspect of protecting the population from pesticide exposure. The comparison showed that the assessment to authorize a pesticide in Australia is based on the risk while in the EU, the assessment is based on the hazard of the pesticide. A registered active substance in Australia can be authorized for use indefinitely unless it is nominated for reconsideration while the period of registration of an active substance in the EU lasts for 10 years. In addition, no routine systematic chemical residue surveys are conducted in Australia for food commodities. The results highlight areas for improvement in the Australian pesticide regulatory system from the perspective of controlling undue exposure among the general population.

Climate change from anthropogenic activities represents a serious threat to life in earth. Agriculture releases significant emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), but also offers low-cost opportunities to mitigate GHG emissions. This paper assesses agricultural GHG emissions in Aragon, one important and representative region for agriculture in Spain. The Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) approach is used to analyze the abatement potential and cost-efficiency of mitigation measures under several scenarios, with and without taking into account the interaction among measures and their transaction costs. The assessment identifies the environmental and economic outcomes of different combinations of measures. Moreover, we develop future mitigation scenarios for agriculture toward the year 2050, in order to assess the impacts on GHG emissions. Results highlight the importance of assessing biophysical processes in mitigation measures, and the significant effects of interactions between measures that reduce the abatement potential and worsen the cost-efficiency. The inclusion of transaction costs provides a better ranking of measures and a more accurate estimation of implementation costs. The scenario analysis shows how the combinations of measures could reduce emissions and promote sustainable agriculture in the future. Keywords: Climate change; mitigation measures; biophysical processes; cost-efficiency; abatement costs; transaction costs; policy scenarios.

COVID-19 severity is heterogeneously distributed over age strata, but current mitigation strategies are homogeneously applied to all population. Social-distancing and stay-home are effective conservative approaches but lack economic sustainability on long term. Conversely, herd-immunity is a nonrestrictive strategy which can cost remarkable number of human lives and can melt the healthcare system down. Here I propose an Age Adaptive Social Distancing (AASD) engineering strategy to mitigate COVID-19 outbreak. AASD is based on the scientific evidence that the fatality rate grows nonlinearly with age, hence also the containing strategy should adapt nonlinearly. Essentially, AASD suggests that ‘silent spreaders’ (age 0-39) should avoid/minimize direct and indirect contacts with individuals in ‘dangerous zone’ (age 40+). The rationale is: 0-19 should follow parents strategy, healthy 20-39 (low fatality rate) might conduct screened life under active surveillance, to sustain economy and acquire rational immunity; 40-59 should respect social distancing (waiting a therapy); 60+ should stay at home (waiting a vaccine). This might save human lives, reduce healthcare demand and improve economic sustainability. The final take-home message is that future studies should design precision and personalized strategies for specific contagious diseases that integrate different social constrains, active surveillance and contact tracing.

The failure to acknowledge and account for environmental externalities or spillovers in climate change adaptation policy, advocacy and programming spaces exercabates the risk of ecological degradation, more so, degradation of land. In particular use of unsuitable water sources for irrigation may increase salinisation risks. However, little if any policy assessments and research effort has been directed at investigating how farmer perceptions mediate spillovers from the ubiquitous irrigation adaptation strategy. In this study cognitive failure and/or bias construct is examined and proposed as an analytical lens in research, policy and learning and the convergence of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation discourses. The findings from small-scale farmers, Machakos and Kakamega counties, Kenya, suggest multifaceted biases and failures about the existence and importance of externalities in adaptation planning discourses. Among other dimensions, cognitive failure which encompasses fragmented approaches among institutions for use and management of resources, inadequate policy and information support, as well as, poor integration of actors in adaptation planning accounts for adaptation failure. The failures in such Human-Environment system interactions have the potential to exercabate existing vulnerability of farmer production systems in the long run. The findings further suggest that in absence of risk message information dissemination, education level, farming experience and information accumulation, as integral elements to human capital, do not seem to have significant effect on behaviour about mitigation of environmental spillovers. Implicitly, reversing the inherent adaptation failures calls for system approaches that enhance coordinated adaptation planning, prioritises proactive mitigation of slow onset disaster risks and broadens decision support systems, such as, risk information dissemination integration into the existing adaptation policy discourses and practice.

Supporting the implementation of school food and nutrition policies (SFNPs) is an international priority to encourage healthier eating among children and youth. Schools are an important intervention setting to promote childhood nutrition, and many jurisdictions have adopted policies, guidelines, and programs to modify the school nutrition environment and promote healthier eating. The purpose of this study was to explore the association between perceived adequacy and capacity for SFNP implementation on food availability and policy adherence in the province of Nova Scotia (NS), Canada, one of the first regions in Canada to launch a comprehensive SFNP. A cross sectional online survey was conducted in 2014-15 to provide a current-state of policy implementation and adherence. Adequacy and capacity for food policy implementation was used to assess policy adherence through the availability of prohibited ‘minimum’ nutrition foods. An exploratory factor analysis was conducted on a selected of available foods and ‘slow’ and ‘quick’ service food composition measures were dichotomized for food availability. Schools with above perceived average adequacy and capacity for policy implementation had more than three times (3.62) greater odds of adhering to a lunch policy, while schools that adhered to a snack and lunch policy had 52% and 82% lower odds of serving quick service foods, respectively. This study identified the need for appropriate adequacy and capacity for policy implementation to ensure policy adherence and improve the school food environment. These findings highlight the potential of SFNPs to have a positive impact on childhood nutrition, but adequately supporting their implementation is critical to ensure their impact.

Threats to natural ecosystems are closely linked to human development, and the lack, insufficiency or inefficiency of public policies are some of the most important drivers of negative effects on the environment. The contribution of the IUCN’s Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) to conservation topics has been discussed in previous studies; however, to date its implications for conservation in public policies have not been addressed. This perspective discusses how the RLE may support the improvement and development of these policies, specifically through the implications for public policy of each of the criteria that substantiate the threat status of ecosystems. We aim to provide a plausible baseline to the operationalization of RLE in public and conservation policy, facilitating the work of governments, practitioners and decision makers. Finally, we provide recommendations and examples as to how to proceed in creating and modifying different public policy instruments, such as land-use planning, spatial zoning, tax reduction, compensation schemes, climate change adaptation plans, management of introduced species, development offsets and restoration investment. This perspective contributes to implement RLE into public policy and to improve ecosystem conservation by expanding the current scope of RLE into practical and political dimensions through plausible actions, policies and strategies.

Urban areas face daunting economic challenges that have increased in scope in recent years. At the same time, cities provide for opportunities for growth and value creation. The interplay of these challenges and opportunities represents the area of intervention for policymakers and researchers. However, the traditional approach to urban policy, deriving from the managerial and economic policy theories, shows difficulties mainly related to the capacity to counterbalance the interests and expectations of a multitude of stakeholders participating to the value co-creation process and to bring all different components to synergically contribute to the sustainability of the system. The Author proposes an innovative approach to urban public policy, by adopting the theoretical corpus of the Viable Systems Approach ("VSA"). Urban planning will be particularly analysed, as systemic components of urban areas, with the aim to investigate the decision-making processes for an integrated, efficient, effective and sustainable management of the territory as a multidimensional, multisectoral and multi-stakeholder entity. By recovering different settings, the VSA intends the co-creation of value as the capacity of the viable systems to increase its surviving chances in its own context. The value derives, first of all, from the strategic decisions aimed at finding both dyadic and context consonance. Through its strategic decisions, the Governing Body of the territory develops a specific system as the overall synthesis of all possible systems organised within a specific area, identifying pattern of development agreed by the several stakeholders of the territory. In the dynamics of value co-creation in systemic multi-subjective organizations, where the level of complexity is particularly significant, the research for consonance among different stakeholders is particular important in order to achieve the most value for the territory. In this respect, the VSA may constitute a valid tool, helping to find the necessary capacities to imagine evolutionary paths towards new competencies.

This qualitative study explores the intricate impact of cultural differences on global procurement practices within multinational supply chains. Cultural dimensions profoundly influence communication dynamics, negotiation strategies, decision-making processes, and supplier relationship management in diverse global contexts. Effective cross-cultural communication is crucial for fostering trust and clarity across different cultural norms, while negotiation strategies vary based on cultural preferences for collaboration or competition. Decision-making processes are shaped by cultural attitudes towards risk tolerance, time orientation, and decision authority, influencing procurement agility and resilience. Strategic implications of cultural diversity include opportunities for innovation and localized adaptation in procurement practices, tempered by challenges such as adaptation costs and regulatory compliance. Emotional intelligence (EI) emerges as pivotal in navigating cultural complexities, enhancing stakeholder engagement, conflict resolution, and collaborative partnerships critical for sustainable procurement practices in multicultural settings. Economic factors, including stability, currency fluctuations, and market volatility, impact procurement strategies and supply chain resilience, necessitating proactive risk management and adaptive approaches. Barriers to growth in global procurement, such as regulatory complexities and geopolitical risks, require strategic planning, stakeholder collaboration, and infrastructural investments for operational continuity. By understanding and addressing cultural influences, multinational corporations can enhance cross-cultural competence, strategic decision-making, and capitalize on global market opportunities. This study contributes insights and recommendations to enhance procurement effectiveness and competitiveness in an interconnected global economy, supporting ongoing efforts to optimize global procurement practices.

In the fast-changing world of software development, the protection of software products has emerged as an imperative requirement. This paper presents a new way to increase the maturity of development teams to reach the highest level of software security. Based on these, the framework uses the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP) to systematically evaluate and enhance the people maturity of software development projects. The essence of the fuzzy logic and AHP technique interaction is to handle the uncertainty and complexity of human factors and team dynamics in the evaluation framework. Using the decision-making model allows the project managers and stakeholders to determine the appropriate areas for improvement and develop the right strategies and actions to nurture a secure and mature development culture. The paper identifies 24 human success factors (HSFs) and human security vulnerabilities (HSVs) and 38 practices for addressing these HSFs and HSVs. Furthermore, we discuss the local and global ranks of each HSF and HSV practice and categorize the identified practices into 9 categories to determine the ranks and weight of each category. Based on collected data, FAHP prioritized these practices; the category “C4: Skill Development and Stakeholder Engagement” is ranked highest at rank-1 and possesses the most significant weight of 0.12435. Similarly, the highest global weight is 0.051506, and the global ranked (rank-1) HSF and HSV practice is “P15: Hands-On Practice and Stakeholder Communication”. Research evidence and case discussions show how the described framework assists in building secure software development (SSD) practices, which can be considered evidence of the application of team maturity to improve cybersecurity in organizations. Additional research directions include improving the framework, especially using highly developed learning techniques and applying the framework to other forms of development.

In today's globalized business environment, multinational corporations (MNCs) face significant challenges in achieving and sustaining effective supply chain integration across diverse cultural contexts. This qualitative research explores the influence of cultural factors on supply chain integration within MNCs, employing in-depth interviews and thematic analysis to uncover key insights. Findings reveal the complex interplay between culture and supply chain practices, highlighting challenges related to cross-cultural communication, trust-building, decision-making, and organizational culture alignment. However, the study also identifies opportunities for leveraging cultural diversity as a source of competitive advantage, emphasizing the importance of cultural intelligence and cross-cultural competence for supply chain professionals. The implications of the research extend to managerial practice, suggesting the development of culturally sensitive strategies for supply chain integration and investment in cultural training and development programs. Moreover, the study underscores the need for a holistic approach to supply chain integration that considers not only technical and operational aspects but also cultural and social dimensions. While the research offers valuable insights, limitations such as the qualitative nature of the study and the focus on supply chain managers' perspectives should be considered. Future research could address these limitations and explore the interdependencies among various contextual factors to enhance our understanding of cultural influences on supply chain integration in MNCs.

AbstractThe emergence of AI-powered deepfakes, manipulatively realistic synthetic media, raises unprecedented challenges for human information processing and decision-making. This paper explores the cognitive and emotional consequences of exposure to deepfakes, delving into how these digitally fabricated experiences can reshape perception, trust, and social interactions. By reviewing existing research and outlining potential methodological approaches, this paper aims to establish a framework for investigating the multifaceted impact of deepfakes on the human brain.BackgroundThe digital age has ushered in an era of unprecedented information abundance and accessibility. Yet, this abundance breeds vulnerability, particularly with the emergence of AI-powered deepfakes. These hyper-realistic synthetic media creations present a potent threat to the fundamental trust and integrity of information sources. Deepfakes have infiltrated various domains, from entertainment and social media to politics and journalism, blurring the lines between truth and fabrication. Consequently, understanding the cognitive and emotional consequences of encountering deepfakes becomes crucial for navigating this increasingly deceptive landscape.ObjectivesThis research aims to: Investigate how exposure to deepfakes impacts various cognitive functions, including perception, attention, memory, and decision-making. Elucidate the emotional responses elicited by deepfakes and their underlying neural mechanisms. Evaluate the role of individual differences, such as susceptibility to deception and emotional sensitivity, in mediating the impact of deepfakes. Develop a comprehensive framework for understanding the multifaceted influence of deepfakes on the human brain. Results (anticipated)This research is expected to yield insights into: The specific cognitive and emotional processes altered by deepfakes, providing evidence for potential mechanisms of deception and manipulation. The neural circuitry involved in detecting and responding to deepfakes, leading to the development of more effective detection methods. The influence of individual differences (e.g., age, cognitive style) on susceptibility to deepfakes, informing targeted interventions and educational efforts.ConclusionBy deciphering the impact of deepfakes on the human brain, this research will offer valuable tools for mitigating the harmful consequences of misinformation and promoting responsible use of this powerful technology. Ultimately, understanding how deepfakes manipulate our cognitive and emotional landscape is not merely a scientific pursuit, but a critical step towards ensuring a future where truth prevails in the digital world.

Aileen Oeberst and Roland Imhoff’s remarkable paper (Perspectives on Psychological Science 2023; 18: 1464-87). should be compulsory reading for all intelligence analysts. It offers a tantalisingly parsimonious explanation comprising the combination of strongly held prior 'beliefs' coupled with subsequent 'belief-consistent information processing' (akin to confirmation bias) - an explanation that simplifies understanding of a vast array of cognitive biases, and thereby suggests that all of these might be attenuated through the application of accessible analytical and assessment practices. What this means for intelligence analysis will be determined by the explicit and implicit 'beliefs' (or, more generally, ‘value[s]’) attributed to any evidence available, and any insight generated, to reduce decision-makers’ uncertainty and unsubstantiated certainty, and thereby offer them future advantage. Analysts are well aware that different sources of evidence (whether empirical, theoretical or entirely speculative) can assign different types and amounts of ‘prior value’ to the information available for intelligence analysis and assessment. Acknowledging such value as a potential driver of subsequent confirmation bias should help analysts guard against any inherent tendency to preference evidence solely on the basis that this was initially considered most ‘valuable’. Instead they should subject all evidence and all insight – regardless of perceived ‘value’ – to a consistent battery of systematic, rigorous and robust evaluation.

One of the most widely available and extensively produced varieties of industrial hemp, which generates a substantial amount of consumer-increasing waste in the form of hemp cellulose. In this study, recycling with a compressed and high-speed method that combines crushing and alkali treatment effectively converts leftover hemp fiber into ultrafine powder. SEM (Scanning Electron Microscopy), AFM (Atomic Force Microscope), FTIR (Fourier-transform Infrared Spectroscopy), and XRD (X-ray Diffraction) examined the original morphology of hemp fiber treated with alkali, fiber heated to 200 ℃, and crushed powder. Particle size, crystallinity, fiber surface, and strength increased and decreased. It became apparent that fiber strength decreased and fiber roughness significantly increased after alkali treatment. Fiber increased significantly, and crystallinity decreased after crushing. It was simple and effective for converting the leftover hemp fiber into micron-sized powder. In about 3 to 5 minutes, approximately 1 kg of dry ultrafine powder with a particle size of 10.44 μm was produced. This production method will significantly enhance future industrial applications of waste hemp fiber.

This paper focuses on quantifying the economic and financial viability of NB-IoT and LoRaWAN technologies, two low-power wide-area network (LPWAN) technologies with unique characteristics that make them suitable for IoT applications. The purpose of the study is to propose an artefact for performing life cycle cost analysis and demonstrate its application to these technologies. The methodology uses pragmatic computational tools to facilitate the analysis and considers all relevant economic and financial factors, such as operating costs, equipment costs, and revenue potential. The main finding of the study is that NB-IoT and LoRaWAN technologies have different cost structures and revenue potentials, which may affect their economic and financial viability for different IoT applications. Ultimately, the study concludes that a comprehensive life cycle cost analysis is critical to making informed decisions about technology adoption, and that the proposed methodology can be applied to other IoT technologies to gain insight into their economic and financial viability.

Directed movement towards a target requires spatial working memory, including processing of sensory inputs and motivational drive. In a stimulus-driven, operant conditioning paradigm designed to train zebrafish, we present a pulse of light via LED’s and/or sounds via an underwater transducer. A webcam placed below a glass tank records fish swimming behavior. During operant conditioning, a fish must interrupt an infrared beam at one location to obtain a small food reward at the same or different location. A timing-gated interrupt activates robotic-arm and feeder stepper motors via custom software controlling a microprocessor (Arduino). “Ardulink”, a JAVA facility, implements Arduino-computer communication protocols. In this way, full automation of stimulus-conditioned directional swimming is achieved. Precise multi­day scheduling of training, including timing, location and intensity of stimulus parameters, and feeder control is accomplished via a user-friendly interface. Our training paradigm permits tracking of learning by monitoring, turning, location, response times and directional swimming of individual fish. This facilitates comparison of performance within and across a cohort of animals. We demonstrate the ability to train and test zebrafish using visual and auditory stimuli. Current methods used for associative conditioning often involve human intervention, which is labor intensive, stressful to animals, and introduces noise in the data. Our relatively simple yet flexible paradigm requires a simple apparatus and minimal human intervention. Our scheduling and control software and apparatus (NemoTrainer) can be used to screen neurologic drugs and test the effects of CRISPR­-based and optogenetic modification of neural circuits on sensation, locomotion, learning and memory.

Citizen participation has always been of vital importance in decision-making processes and, likewise, joint work in the formulation and execution of projects that respond to territorial needs. This in order to ensure the best impact of public or private investment, optimizing the result and community articulation. For this reason, this investigation proposes a methodology of evaluation and prioritization of projects based on an approach integrated between the modelling in dynamics systems (SDM) and the Analytical process network (ANP), in which the citizen factors are used as qualitative and quantitative variables inside the posed balance sheet model. This is how the model developed by the Stella Architect software, it offers to the decision makers approximate information about the reality of the community, especially those who were affected by the Colombian conflict and where the expectations of a comprehensive repair could disrupt the socioeconomic system and reveal more pressing interests than those of the central government. The methodology is described by the information gotten through the participatory workshops done in the California county that belongs to the Magdalena region, this is a very affected region by the conflict in Colombia. The investigation results confirm the useful of, first of all, the use of the modelling as an information-generating tool by allowing the simulation of relevant variables in the evaluation and prioritization of projects at different moments of time and, in second place, use the knowledge of the experts that expose the ANP method for establishing the importance of each variable compared with other variables and, likewise of each project compared to the rest of the alternatives in each of the different instants of time in which the evaluation is carried out, given that the results could change in any time, the official ranking is showed after an optimization process with partial results.

This study focused on the characterization of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in a renowned traditional Italian cheese, Pecorino di Farindola, to select an autochthonous culture and investigate its po-tential for the improvement of safety and functional properties. Two hundred and six LAB isolated throughout production and maturation from nine cheese lots of three farms were identified by 16S rRNA gene sequencing and tested for the presence of genes encoding virulence factors, vancomycin resistance (for enterococci), biogenic amines (BAs) and bacteriocin production, for antimicrobial activity, and for the capacity to survive in the gastro-intestinal tract (GIT) based on tolerance to low pH and bile salts and adhesion to CaCo-2 cells. A Lacticaseibacillus paracasei isolate was used in cheese making and determined a decline of spiked Listeria monocytogenes and Escherichia coli O157 faster than in control cheese. The autochthonous bacterial groups were numerically unaffected, apart from lactobacilli that were recovered in higher numbers in the cheese with added L. paracasei. Based on Repetitive Extragenic Palyndrome (Rep) PCR profiles, the added strain possibly dominated until day 88 in cheese. Results encourage further trials with autochthonous cultures to efficiently inhibit hazardous bacteria and enrich a functional microbiota in Pecorino di Farindola and similar cheeses.

The digital world has a wealth of data, such as Internet of Things (IoT) data, business data, health data, mobile data, urban data, security data, and many more, in the current age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0 or 4IR). Extracting knowledge or useful insights from these data can be used for smart decision-making in various applications domains. In the area of data science, advanced analytics methods including machine learning modeling can provide actionable insights or deeper knowledge about data, which makes the computing process automatic and smart. In this paper, we present a comprehensive view on "Data Science'' including various types of advanced analytics methods that can be applied to enhance the intelligence and capabilities of an application through smart decision-making in different scenarios. We also discuss and summarize ten potential real-world application domains including business, healthcare, cybersecurity, urban and rural data science, and so on by taking into account data-driven smart computing and decision making. Based on this, we finally highlight the challenges and potential research directions within the scope of our study. Overall, this paper aims to serve as a reference point on data science and advanced analytics to the researchers and decision-makers as well as application developers, particularly from the data-driven solution point of view for real-world problems.

This is a short introductory review on quantum-like modeling of cognition with applications to decision making and rationality. The aim of the review is twofold: a) to present briefly the apparatus of quantum information and probability theory useful for such modeling; b) to motivate applications of this apparatus in cognitive studies and artifical intelligence, psychology, decision making, social and political sciences. We define quantum rationality as decision making that is based on quantum information processing. Quantumly and classically rational agents behaves differently. A quantum-like agent can violate the Savage Sure Thing Principle, the Aumann theorem on impossibility of agreeing to disagree.Such an agent violates the basic laws of classical probability, e.g., the law of total probability and the Bayesian probability inference. In some contexts, ``irrational behavior'' (from the viewpoint of classical theory of rationality) can be profitable, especially for agents who are overloaded by a variety of information flows. Quantumly rational agents can save a lot of information processing resources. At the same time, this sort of rationality is the basis for quantum-like socio-political engineering, e.g., social laser. This rationality plays the important role in the process of decision making not only by biosystems, but even by AI-systems. The latter equipped with quantum(-like) information processors would behave irrationally, from the classical viewpoint. As for biosystems, quantum rational behavior of AI-systems has its advantages and disadvantages. Finally, we point out that quantum-like information processing in AI-systems can be based on classical physical devices, e.g., classical digital or analog computers.

This conceptual, interdisciplinary paper will start by introducing the commencement of a new era in which human society faces continuously accelerating technological revolutions, named for short ‘Padkos’. In this context, a conceptual model of sustainable development with a focus on knowledge sharing and management will be proposed. The construct of knowledge management will be unpacked into a three-layer model with a focus on the knowledge-human and data-machine spheres. Then, each sphere will be discussed with concentrating on the learning and decision- making processes, the digital supporting systems and the human actors’ aspects. Moreover, the recombination of new knowledge development and contemporary knowledge management into one amalgamated construct will be proposed. The holistic conceptual model of knowledge sharing for sustainable development is comprised by time, cybersecurity and two alternative humanistic paradigms (Homo Technologicus and Homo Sustainabiliticus). Two additional particular models are discussed in depth. First, a recently proposed model of quantum organizational decision-making is elaborated. Next, a boundary management and learning process is particularized. The paper ends with several implications for the future based on the deliberations in the paper and the models discussed.

The popularity of electronic cigarettes in the United States and around the world has led to a startling rise in youth nicotine use. The Juul e-cigarette was introduced in the U.S. market in 2015 and had captured approximately 13% of the U.S. market by 2017. Unlike many other contemporary electronic cigarette companies, the founders behind the Juul® e-cigarette approached their product launch like a traditional high-tech start-up company, not like a tobacco company. This article presents a case study of Juul’s corporate and product development history in the context of US regulatory actions. The objective of this article is to demonstrate the value of government-curated archives as leading indicators which can (a) provide insight into emergent technologies and (b) inform emergent regulatory science research questions. A variety of sources were used to gather data about the Juul e-cigarette and the corporations that surround it. Sources included government agencies, published academic literature, non-profit organizations, corporate and retail websites, and the popular press. Data was disambiguated, authenticated, and categorized prior to being placed on a timeline of events. A timeline of four significant milestones, nineteen corporate filings and events, twelve US regulatory actions, sixty four patent applications, eighty seven trademark applications, twenty three design patents and thirty two utility patents related to Juul Labs and its associates is presented spanning the years 2004 thought 2020. This work demonstrates the probative value of findings from patent, trademark, and SEC filing literature in establishing a premise for emergent regulatory science research questions which may not yet be supported by traditional archival research literature. The methods presented here can be used to identify key aspects of emerging technologies before products actually enter the market, this shifting policy formulation and problem identification from a paradigm of being reactive in favor of becoming proactive. Such a proactive approach may permit anticipatory regulatory science research and ultimately shorten the elapsed time between market technology innovation and regulatory response.

With a reduction in the mortality rate of burn patients, patient length of stay (LOS) is increasingly adopted as an outcome measure. Some studies have attempted to identify factors that explain a burn patient's expected LOS. However, few have investigated the association between LOS and a patient's mental and socioeconomic status. There is anecdotal evidence for links between these factors and uncovering these will aid in better addressing the specific physical and emotional needs of burn patients, and facilitate the planning of scarce hospital resources. Here, we employ machine learning (clustering) and statistical models (regression) to investigate whether a segmentation by socioeconomic/mental status can improve the performance and interpretability of an upstream predictive model, relative to a unitary model derived for the full adult population of patients. Although we found no significant difference in the performance of the unitary model and segment-specific models, the interpretation of the segment-specific models reveals a reduced impact of burn severity in LOS prediction with increasing adverse socioeconomic and mental status. Furthermore, the models for the socioeconomic segments highlight an increased influence of living circumstances and source of injury on LOS. These findings suggest that, in addition to ensuring that the physical needs of patients are met, management of their mental status is crucial for delivering an effective care plan.

The objective of the paper is to introduce new similarity measure for single valued neutrosophic sets based on logarithm function. We define logarithm similarity measure and their weighted similarity measure for single valued neutrosophic sets. Then we define hybrid logarithm similarity measure and weighted hybrid logarithm similarity measure for single valued neutrosophic sets. We prove the basic properties of the proposed measures. We then define an entropy function using logarithm function to determine unknown attribute weights. We develop a novel multi attribute group decision making strategy for single valued neutrosophic sets based on the weighted hybrid logarithm similarity measure. We address an illustrative example to demonstrate the effectiveness and aptness of the proposed strategies. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the developed strategy. We also make a comparison between the obtained results from proposed strategies and different existing strategies in the literature.

Neutrosophic cubic set (NCS) is one of the important family members of neutrosophic hybrid sets. Neutrosophic cubic set has more strength than other family members of neutrosophic hybrid sets to express incomplete information due to the presence of interval valued neutrosophic set (IVNS) and single valued neutrosophic set (SVNS) in its structure. Cross entropy measure is one of the best way to calculate the divergence of any variable from the priori one variable. In this paper we first define a new cross entropy measure under NCSs environment which we call NC- cross entropy measure. We investigate the basic properties of NC-cross entropy. We also propose weighted NC-cross entropy and investigate its basic properties. We develop a novel multi attribute decision making (MADM) strategy based on weighted NC-cross entropy. To show the feasibility and applicability, we solve a MADM problem using the proposed strategy.

To curb the impacts arising from the agricultural sector the actions undertaken by policymakers, and ultimately by the farmers, are of paramount importance. However, finding the best strategy to reduce impacts, and especially assessing the effects of the interactions and mutual influence among farmers, is very difficult. To this aim, this paper shows an application of an agent-based model (ABM) coupled with life cycle assessment (LCA), which also includes multi objective optimization of farming activities (including both crop cultivation and livestock breeding) from an economic and environmental perspective. The environmental impacts are assessed using the impact assessment scores calculated with the Environmental Footprint (EF) 3.0 life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) method and the study is conducted “from cradle to farm gate”. The model is applied to all the farms in Luxembourg, whose network is constructed utilizing neighborhood interactions, through which a parameter known as farmer's green consciousness (GC) is updated at each time step. The optimization module is instantiated at the end of each time step, and decision variables (the number of livestock units and land allocation) are assigned based on profitability and specified environmental impact categories. If only profit optimization is considered (i.e. when farmers’ GC is de-activated), the results show a 9% reduction in the aggregated environmental impacts (obtained as EF “single score”) and a 5.5% increase in overall profitability. At the farm level, simulations display a clear trade-off between environmental sustainability and financial stability, with a 25% reduction in overall emissions possible if farming activities are carried using the EF single score impact in the objective function, though this results in an 8% reduction in profitability over ten years.

This qualitative research investigates the intricate relationship between market dynamics and supply chain sustainability in the renewable energy sector. Amidst the global energy transition, renewable energy has emerged as a crucial player in mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable development. However, ensuring the sustainability of renewable energy supply chains presents complex challenges shaped by various market forces. Through semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis, this study explores how policy frameworks, technological innovation, market competition, consumer preferences, and investor demands influence sustainability practices across the renewable energy supply chain. The findings highlight the critical role of supportive policy environments, technological advancements, and stakeholder collaboration in driving sustainability performance and mitigating risks within renewable energy supply chains. Furthermore, the study identifies challenges such as supply chain complexity, regulatory compliance, and stakeholder engagement, underscoring the need for collaborative efforts and multi-stakeholder partnerships. By addressing these challenges and leveraging opportunities, stakeholders can advance sustainability goals, mitigate climate change impacts, and foster a more resilient and equitable renewable energy sector. The research contributes to a deeper understanding of market dynamics and supply chain sustainability in the renewable energy sector, offering insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and sustainability practitioners to inform evidence-based decision-making and drive positive change.

The transportation industry is rapidly transitioning from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) based vehicles to Electric Vehicles (EVs) to promote clean energy. However, large-scale adoption of EVs can compromise the reliability of the power grids by introducing large uncertainty in the demand. Demand response with a controlled charge scheduling strategy for EVs can mitigate such issues. In this paper, a deep reinforcement learning- based charge scheduling strategy is developed for individual EVs by considering user’s dynamic driving behavior and charging preferences. The temporal dynamics of user’s anxiety about charging the EV battery is rigorously addressed. A dynamic weight allocation technique is applied to continuously tune user’s priority for charging and cost-saving with respect to charging duration. The sequential charging control problem is formulated as a Markov decision process, and an episodic approach to the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) algorithm with target policy smoothing and delayed policy update techniques is applied to develop the optimal charge scheduling strategy. A real-world dataset that captures user’s driving behavior, such as arrival time, departure time, and charging duration, is utilized in this study. The extensive simulation results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in minimizing energy cost while satisfying user’s charging requirements.

This study was aim to assess the spatial-temporal trends of urban expansion with land use/land cover change dynamics over a period of 30 years in Addis Ababa. The source of data were Land sat satellite imagery freely available by the United States Geological Survey, Addis Ababa City plan map obtained from Addis Ababa city governance planning and development commission, and Ethiopia Space Science and Geospatial Agency. The data obtained were analysed by using QGIS, and ERDAS software. The finding showed that over the last thirty years Addis Ababa city was highly spreads with (Urban Expansion Intensity Index(UEII)=1.524%); building-up land increased faster (dynamic degree (K) = -6.22 and Annual Urban Expansion Rate(AUER) is 3.56. From the finding, Addis Ababa is spreading speedily.

Recently considered modifications to public policy and trends in technology transfer practices have underscored the need for validated instruments to assess the maturity of technologies. This paper details a study that aimed to develop and present a generalized technology readiness level (GTRL) scale that a variety of professionals and researchers could use to assess the maturity of technologies in a range of contexts. Of particular interest is developing and validating an instrument that technology transfer professionals in federal laboratories, universities, and the private sector in the United States of America can use to assess the maturity of technologies to facilitate their technology transfer efforts. The primary goal of the research study was to highlight the need for validated measurement instruments for assessing the maturity of technologies in these contexts, test methods for validating the GTRL scale and other readiness level scales, and fill the knowledge gap regarding methods for properly validating such instruments. This included producing insights to inform future efforts to validate the GTRL scale as well as efforts to develop and validate other instruments to measure technology maturity. The study provides specific recommendations relevant to determining the face validity, content validity, inter-rater reliability, and intra-rater reliability of the GTRL scale and other such instruments for assessing technology maturity.

The paper proposes a game theory model of price oligopoly with a heterogeneous product, where total demand depends linearly on the minimum market price. This model develops the Bertrand oligopoly for the case of imperfect price elasticity of demand. The most interesting result is an asymmetric Nash equilibrium with different prices and sales in the situation of symmetric oligopolists. The asymmetry is explained by the fact that a decrease in the minimum market price leads not only to a reallocation of consumers among firms, but also to an increase in total demand. Modifications of a two-stage game with a leader and followers and the price discrimination model are also considered. Microeconomic substantiation of the model is given on the basis of the spatial differentiation approach.

Considering the aging society and budget constraints, a strategy for reforming public transportation welfare policies is essential for sustainability. Among the various transportation welfare policies, fare discount policies are provided to specific age groups, and most countries offer benefits to several public transportation. South Korea provides a fare-free policy limited to subways, and the need for policy modification is emerging due to sustainability problems caused by an aging society. Hence, the scope of the policy should be expanded to all travel modes, but the discount rate should be reduced, or the target group should be reduced in consideration of the budget. This study proposes a travel mode to focus on by city through the preference of the elderly. The latent class model is employed to classfy stated preference data collected from the survey. The estimation results show a significant preference heterogeneity depending on the level of subway supply by region, and a policy focused on subways would be more reasonable in cities with sufficient subway infrastructure. Hence, regarding sustainability, it may be more appropriate to focus on specific means than to provide the same discount policy for all public transport.

The objective of the present study is to analyze COVID-19 transmission in specific dampest regions with excess rainfall and recurring fogs. The working hypothesis is that widespread transmission of SARS CoV 2 (leading to COVID-19) and similar viral agents can be explained by specific climate factors having high air humidity. The main case study of the Turkish Black Sea region is investigated. Results reveal that the provinces in region under study have some climate factors and geographical features that foster the accelerated transmission of viral agents, such as SARS-CoV-2, and consequential negative impact on society. In particular, Spearman's Correlation Coefficient shows a statistically significant positive association between the average atmospheric pressure and the spread of the COVID-19 confirmed cases in Samsun province (Spearman’s correlation coefficient rs =0.86, p-value 0.05). A statistically significant positive association between the average precipitation and the spread of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Sinop province (Spearman’s correlation coefficient rs =0.79, p-value 0.05), and finally, a statistically significant negative association between the average sun hour and the spread of the COVID-19 confirmed cases in Samsun province (Spearman’s correlation coefficient rs = 0.89, p-value 0.01). These findings suggest that regions' geographical characteristics, demographic structure, climate and environmental parameters must be considered in the national scale epidemic management plans to design effective anti-pandemic health policies to cope with future waves of the COVID-19 and new airborne diseases and to reduce negative effects on health, social and economic systems.

The rapidly expanding corona pandemic in 2020 brought the world to virtual economic stagna-tion. While the impact on the environment from suspended air traffic, idle industry and economic lockdown has been considerable, so have the economic and social consequences of the crisis. To make matters worse, the resulting state of stagnation is neither economically nor socially sustaina-ble. Nevertheless, we need to ask ourselves what we can learn from the situation in order to ex-plore the benefits of globalization, intercept similar crisis situations more effectively in the future and move towards more sustainable development on an ecological, economic and social level. This paper identifies the areas of expanded externality management needed to further improve environmental quality, digitalization, network expansion and basic income. These central issues need to be addressed both during and after the crisis in order to deal with problems of inequality and climate change mitigation for current and future generations. Concrete concepts will be put forward and discussed in the paper.

There exists a compelling need to better understand the temporal dynamics of public sentiment towards COVID-19 vaccines in the US on a national and state-wise level for facilitating appropriate public policy applications. Our analysis of social media data from early February of 2021 and late March of 2021 shows that in spite of overall strength of positive sentiment, and increasing numbers of Americans being fully vaccinated, negative sentiment about COVID-19 vaccines still persists among sections of people who are hesitant towards the vaccine. In this study, we performed sentiment analytics on vaccine tweets, studied changes in public sentiment over time, conducted vaccination sentiment validation using actual vaccination data from the US CDC and Household Pulse Survey (HPS), explored influence of maturity of Twitter user-accounts and generated geographic mapping of sentiments by location of Twitter users. Furthermore, we leverage the emotion polarity based Public Sentiment Scenarios (PSS) framework which was developed for COVID-19 sentiment analytics, to systematically analyze directions for public policy processes to potentially improve the administration of vaccines. Application of the PSS framework provides important time sensitive insights for state and federal government agencies and associated organizations to better implement public policy processes for healthcare management, communication, transparency, motivation and societal operational policies such as social distancing. These insights are expected to contribute to processes that can expedite the vaccination program and move closer to the cherished herd immunity goal.

In 2019, Chinese government implemented the first round of National Centralized Drug Procurement (NCDP) pilot (so-called "4+7" policy) in mainland China, achieved a prominent price reduction of 52% on average for 25 bidding winning products. Under cross-price elasticity theory, the price behavior of pharmaceutical enterprises for policy-related drugs might change. This study used drug purchasing data from the Centralized Drug Procurement Survey in Shenzhen 2019, and applied single-group Interruption Time Series (ITS) design to examine the impact of "4+7" policy on the drug price index (DPI) of policy-related drugs. The ITS analysis showed that the DPI of winning (-0.183 per month, p&lt;0.0001) and non-winning (-0.034 per month, p=0.046) products significantly decreased after the implementation of "4+7" policy. No significant difference was found for the immediate change of DPI for alternative drugs (p=0.537), while a significant decrease in change trend was detected in the post-"4+7" policy period (-0.003 per month, p=0.014). The DPI of the overall policy-related drugs significantly decreased (-0.261 per month, p&lt;0.0001) after "4+7" policy. These findings indicate that the price behavior of pharmaceutical enterprises changed under NCDP policy, while the price linkage effect is still limited. It is necessary to further expand the scope of centralized purchased drugs and strengthen the monitoring of related drugs regarding price change and consumption structure.

This work examines the effects of two problematic trends in diesel passenger car emissions – increasing NO2/NOx ratio by conversion of NO into NO2 in catalysts and a disparity between the emission limit and the actual emissions in everyday driving – on ambient air quality in Prague. NO2 concentrations were measured by 104 membrane-closed Palmes passive samplers at 65 locations in Prague in March-April and September-October of 2019. NO2 concentrations measured by city stations during those periods were comparable with the 2016-2019. The average measured NO2 concentrations at the selected locations, after correcting for the 18.5% positive bias of samplers co-located with a monitoring station, were 36 µg/m3 (range 16-69 µg/m3, median 35.3 µg/m3), with the EU annual limit of 40 µg/m3 exceeded at 32% of locations. The NO2 concentrations have correlated well (R2=0.76) with the 2019 average daily vehicle counts, corrected for additional emissions due to uphill travel and intersections. In addition to expected “hot-spots” at busy intersections in the city center, new ones were identified, i.e. along a six-lane road V Holešovičkách. Comparison of data from six monitoring stations during March 15-April 30, 2020 travel restrictions with the same period in 2016-2019 revealed an overall reduction of NO2 and even a larger reduction of NO. The spatial analysis of data from passive samplers and time analysis of data during the travel restrictions both demonstrate a consistent positive correlation between traffic intensity and NO2 concentrations along/near the travel path. The slow pace of NO2 reductions in Prague suggests that stricter vehicle NOx emission limits, introduced in the last decade or two, have so far failed to sufficiently reduce the ambient NO2 concentrations, and there is no clear sign of remedy of Dieselgate NOx excess emissions.

Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) remain a public health challenge in developing counties. We developed a needs-based essential care service package (ECSP) for care planning of persons living with dementia (PLWD) using a cross-sectional survey among PLWD in institutions in six cities in China (n= 1,299). Face-to-face interviews were conducted with caregivers of PLWD by trained staff between 2018 and 2019. Care service needs and utilization by the level of cognitive impairment were summarized. The average age of PLWD was 80.7 years. 76% of participants had severe cognitive impairment. The needs-based ECSP with 30 service items would be sufficient in supporting care services of PLWD in China, of which seven items are core care. The selection plan for ECSP at different levels is designed as “General Care Services + Selective Care Services”, in which service items for low-, mid-and high-level care for PLWD are 7+3, 7+6, and 7+10, respectively. The findings provide the first large-scale data on service needs and utilization of PLWD in mainland China. The ECSP for PLWD advanced in the paper was a practicable and effective quantitative management means. It is deserved to application in a large scale.

The spatiotemporal variability of vegetation in the Middle East was investigated for the period 2001–2019 using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 16-day/500 m composites of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI; MOD13A1). The results reveal a strong increase in the NDVI coverage in the Middle East during the study period (R = 0.75, p-value = 0.05). In Egypt, the annual coverage exhibits the strongest positive trend (R = 0.99, p-value = 0.05). In Turkey, both the vegetation coverage and density increased from 2001 to 2019, which can be attributed to the construction of some of the biggest dams in the Middle East, such as the Atatürk and Ilisu dams. Significant increases in the annual coverage and maximum and average NDVI in Saudi Arabia are due to farming in the northern part of the country for which groundwater and desalinated seawater are used. The results of this study suggest that the main factors affecting the vegetation coverage in the Middle East are governmental policies. These policies can have a positive effect on the vegetation coverage in some countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iran, and Turkey.

Economics has long sought to bridge the principles of microeconomics into the realm of macroeconomics. This paper presents a formal attempt to do so by using a maximum entropy based approach derived from statistical mechanics coupled with subjective game theory and elements from political philosophy. This approach is then applied to income distributions and to the Cobb-Douglas production function, to create a framework for future applications, and to illustrate where past work had made implicit assumptions regarding the system. The paper then explores the consequences of the approach, illustrating self-contradictions in the political philosophy of distributive justice, formally deriving an equation of state for the transactions on the Bitcoin network, and deriving from this the ideal gas law and polytropic process for an economy proving that expansionary monetary policy is not stimulative.

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is one of the worst-hit regions globally by COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, scarce literature exists that examines the research strategy of LAC in facing COVID-19. The present study aims to quantify and assess the production of COVID-19 publications in thirty-two countries in LAC during the first half of 2020. A Scopus/PubMed/LILACS search was performed to retrieve research articles related to COVID-19 published from January 1 to July 31, 2020. Subgroup analysis including only original publications was used to better ascertain the contribution of LAC countries, and standardization measures were applied to comparisons of country-specific contributions. We identified 1291 publications across the region. Overall, most articles in the region were non-original (81.6%), and the most productive countries were Brazil (43.9%), Mexico (9.14%), and Colombia (7.98%). This trend shifted to Chile after the standardization. Among original studies, the most common study design was cross-sectional (25.8%). LAC countries generate articles primarily pertaining to diagnosis and treatment (27.4%). In the subgroup analysis, however, epidemiology and surveillance was the most prevalent research focus (24.1%). LAC countries should perform more research with a higher level of evidence to inform health policy making to ease the burden of COVID-19 in the region.

Recent years have seen a proliferation of platform-based “shared mobility services” (SMS) such as car-, bike-, and e-scootersharing in many cities in Germany and around the world. At the same time, these services have become the subject of intense debates: Are they replacing private car travel, thus contributing to sustainable mobility in cities? Or are they drawing users away from public transit and cycling while obstructing public space? From the perspective of sustainable mobility politics it seems far from clear which role these new services could play in transitioning to a less car-centric mobility system. While a number of potential effects and ensuing governance issues of shared mobility services (e.g. regarding questions of equitable access, data governance, the role of public versus private actors) have already been studied this article explores the role of shared mobility services (SMS) in triggering system dynamics and feedback loops in the context of sustainability transitions. The article connects questions regarding the sustainability effects of “shared mobility services” with the role of “push” measures to reduce private car traffic in cities. Using a theoretical framework from socio-technical transitions research and from the sociology of technology it describes the recent growth of shared mobility services in Berlin as an example of the upscaling dynamics of socio-technical niche innovations. Drawing on a series of workshops with mobility service providers and representatives of public authorities it analyses the potential for conflict as well as for coalition building between service providers and public authorities. Based on the theoretical concept of the role of feedback loops and windows of opportunity for transitions it shows how the market growth of shared mobility services added momentum to an already ongoing political debate over the legitimate use of public space in Berlin. Against this backdrop the article shows how growing numbers of car-, bike-, and e-scootersharing vehicles could open up windows of opportunity for re-distributing space away from private cars. The article concludes that supporting and regulating SMS will be key to steering their growth into the direction of sustainability.

The worldwide interconnected objects, called Internet of Things (IoTs), have been increasingly growing in the last several years. Different social media platforms and devices are continuously generating data about individuals and facilitate the technological and the social convergence of their Internet-based data and services with globalized users. These social and device-related IoTs create rooms for data breaches as such platforms provide ability to collect private and sensitive data. We assert that data breaches are fundamentally failures of access control - most users are too busy or technically ill-equipped to understand access control policy expressions and decisions. We argue that this is symptomatic of globalised societies structured by the conditions of algorithmic modernity; an era in which our data is increasingly interdependent on, and enmeshed with, ever more complex systems and processes that are vulnerable to attack. Ethically managing data breaches is now too complex for current access control systems, such as Role-Based Access Control (RBAC) and Context-Aware Access Control (CAAC). These systems do not provide an explicit mechanism to engage in decision making processes, about who should have access to what data and when, that are involved in data breaches. We argue that a policy ontology will contribute towards the development of Ethical CAAC better suited to attributing accountability for data breaches in the context of algorithmic modernity. We interrogate our proposed Ethical CAAC as a theoretical construct with implications for future policy ontology models and data breach countermeasures. An experimental study on the performance of the proposed framework is carried out with respect to a more generic CAAC framework.

This paper builds upon a theory of emerging-state actors using ISIS as a case study. This paper seeks to apply the theory in analyzing intervention & containment policies to use against emerging-state actors, using ISIS as the case study. Two baseline scenarios are used for evaluation – one replicating the historical foreign intervention against ISIS and a counter-factual where no foreign intervention occurred. Eleven contemporary military policies were tested against these baseline in isolation, combination, at different timing windows and under hypothetical “best case” conditions as well as operationally constrained. Insights of these tests include the influence of ethnographic envelopes, timing windows. Finally, a policy based on emerging-state actor theory is tested performing substantially better across primary measures than other policies or the historical baseline. This is compared against a falsified-policy designed to disprove that emerging-state actor theory contributed to the benefits. This paper’s contributions are a practical application of system dynamics simulations and systems-thinking to current problems, generate insights into the dynamics of emerging-state actors and intervention strategies, and demonstrate utility for future application of the underlying simulation in other scenarios involving non-state actor irregular conflict including terrorism, insurgents, or emerging-state actors.

Arctic feedbacks will accelerate climate change and could jeopardise mitigation efforts. The permafrost carbon feedback releases carbon to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost and the sea ice albedo feedback increases solar absorption in the Arctic Ocean. A constant positive albedo feedback and zero permafrost feedback have been used in nearly all climate policy studies to date, while observations and models show that the permafrost feedback is significant and that both feedbacks are nonlinear. Using novel dynamic emulators in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE, we investigate nonlinear interactions of the two feedbacks with the climate and economy under a range of climate scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement. The permafrost feedback interacts with the land and ocean carbon uptake processes, and the albedo feedback evolves through a sequence of nonlinear transitions associated with the loss of Arctic sea ice in different months of the year. The US’s withdrawal from the current national pledges could increase the total discounted economic impact of the two Arctic feedbacks until 2300 by $25 trillion, reaching nearly $120 trillion, while meeting the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets will reduce the impact by an order of magnitude.

With the proliferation of locating devices, more and more raw spatial trajectories are formed, and many works enrich these raw trajectories with semantics, and mine patterns from both raw and semantic trajectories, but access control of spatial trajectories is not considered yet. We present a multi-policy secure model for semantic spatial trajectories. In our model, Mandatory Access Control, Role Based Access Control and Discretionary Access control are all enforced, separately and combined, and we represent the model semi-formally in Ontology Web Language.

Digital marketing adoption in the multinational Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector presents both challenges and opportunities that significantly impact organizational strategies and market competitiveness. This qualitative study explores the complexities surrounding digital marketing adoption through interviews with 45 participants from multinational FMCG companies. The research investigates key barriers such as organizational resistance, technological constraints, and concerns over data privacy and security, while also examining the benefits of enhanced consumer engagement, global market reach, and data-driven decision making. Findings reveal that organizational resistance remains a formidable barrier, driven by senior management's cautious approach to digital transformation and concerns over return on investment (ROI) amidst rapidly evolving digital landscapes. Technological challenges, including outdated systems and limited budgets for technology upgrades, further hinder comprehensive digital integration. Moreover, navigating regulatory frameworks and addressing consumer trust in data privacy emerge as critical considerations for FMCG companies seeking to leverage digital strategies effectively. Conversely, digital marketing adoption offers substantial opportunities. Enhanced consumer engagement through personalized and interactive campaigns allows companies to strengthen brand-consumer relationships and foster loyalty. The global reach facilitated by digital platforms enables multinational FMCG firms to expand market presence, penetrate new markets, and adapt marketing strategies to diverse consumer preferences worldwide. Data-driven decision making emerges as pivotal, leveraging analytics to optimize marketing strategies, measure campaign effectiveness, and anticipate consumer behaviors in real-time. Strategies for overcoming barriers emphasize building internal digital capabilities through training, recruitment, and cross-functional collaboration. Aligning digital strategies with overarching business objectives and integrating digital efforts with traditional marketing channels are crucial for creating cohesive and effective campaigns. Embracing innovation, flexibility, and agility in adapting to technological advancements are essential for maintaining competitiveness and relevance in a rapidly evolving digital landscape. Looking forward, emerging trends such as AI and machine learning integration for predictive analytics, sustainability-focused marketing initiatives, and the evolution towards omnichannel strategies are poised to reshape digital marketing practices in the FMCG sector. By aligning strategies with these trends, FMCG companies can harness digital technologies to drive sustainable growth, enhance market competitiveness, and meet evolving consumer expectations in a digitally-driven global marketplace.

The adoption of environmental conservation agriculture (ECA) in Nepal is aligned with the country's goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045, as ECA practices have been proven to effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Nepal's agricultural sector faces numerous challenges, including labor shortages, climate change impacts, and the necessity for environmentally friendly farming methods, making the adoption of ECA practices even more crucial. This paper thus explored farmer perspectives on the sustainability of ECA practices in Namobuddha municipality, Nepal, which is renowned as a leading hub of organic farming. A cross-sectional survey was conducted, together with key informant interviews and onsite observations. By analyzing various farmer perspectives, the study presents an analytical framework that highlights the economic, environmental, and social pillars of ECA's sustainability. The findings underscore the significance of economic viability for farmers, as damages to crops and farm products negatively drive their perception of ECA sustainability. Conversely, factors such as increased agriculture-related income, favorable prices, and sustainable productivity positively shape farmers' perceptions. In terms of environmental sustainability, farmers prioritize enhancing the local and global environment, viewing their farming methods as climate-smart and actively working towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The study emphasizes the importance of strategic communication to effectively convey the benefits of ECA to rural communities. Overall, this research contributes to filling the knowledge gap concerning farmers' perceptions of ECA sustainability. The insights gained from this study have the potential to inform policy decisions and promote the widespread adoption of environmentally friendly farming practices in Nepal.

Business-to-business (B2B) manufacturing companies are increasingly confronted with transformative trends such as sustainability, digitalization, and servitization. These trends are changing how product portfolios are developed, and value contributions are assessed, and therefore have disruptive potential. Dealing with these disruptive factors in Product Portfolio Management (PPM) is a largely unexplored topic. This study presents an empirical-qualitative exploration that contributes significantly to the field. The aim is to clarify the extent to which disruptive factors influence the evaluation and shaping of the product portfolio in B2B manufacturing companies. The Gioia method was used to evaluate 21 semi-structured interviews with experts from leading B2B manufacturing companies. Eight overarching challenges in PPM resulting from the disruptive factors were identified. Based on the eight overarching challenges and their associated causal relationships, two aggregated dimensions of action were derived: (1) increasing speed and flexibility by using generative artificial intelligence (AI) in a defined PPM process and (2) adjusting the product portfolio evaluation to consider various strategic drivers. These two dimensions of action call for future research to overcome the disruptive factors in PPM.

As distinct human societies, three unique intentional communities are investigated regarding their preferred consensus decision-making practices. It is Identified that each has adopted a different form of consensus decision-making to solve potential group-wide interpersonal conflict. The individual attributes of these three consensus decision-making practices are considered, both from the perspective of maintaining group stability and in relation to individual member's mental health. The communities are a Canadian self-directed public senior elementary and secondary school, an annual English conference for those self-identifying as on the autistic spectrum, and a self-producing Korean popular music (K-pop) group. It is found that the intentional community and participants’ mental health are sustained regarding each of the three consensus decision-making practices. Nevertheless, the resulting decisions generate various stresses within the communities, both as a whole and concerning the individual members. To retain group cohesion and maintain individual mental health, these stresses must be recognized and understood by participants. The novel finding of this research is that, dependent on the time available for decision-making, and the members’ perspective adopted, intentional communities might practice more than one form of consensus decision-making and still support both group cohesion and individual mental health, maintaining the democracy of these distinct societies.

Intelligent systems are increasingly present in various areas of society, gaining special relevance in healthcare environments. In this work, grounded on previous developments proposed by the authors, the evolution and improvement of a novel intelligent system focused on the diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is addressed. To do this, starting from two packages of information of a heterogeneous nature, and deploying a set of Machine Learning classification algorithms, focused each of them on different levels of the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), as well as a set of cascaded expert systems, it is possible to obtain a series of risk metric pairs (Statistical Risk, Symbolic Risk) for each AHI level, understood as a warning forecast associated with the early detection of the pathology. The risk indicators of each pair are subsequently aggregated by means of a symbolic inference system, whose knowledge base was determined using the automatic rule generation approach proposed by Wang and Mendel. At the output of each inference system, a risk indicator is obtained for each AHI level, the Apnea Risk, whose interpretation makes it possible to discriminate between patients who could suffer OSA and those who do not, as well as to generate the appropriate recommendations. For the initial tests of the system, the design and development of a specific software artifact was carried out using data from 4,400 patients from the Álvaro Cunqueiro Hospital in Vigo, obtaining when applied to the test set AUC values within the range 0.74–0.88, which invites optimism and points to the benefits expected from the architecture of the proposed intelligent system.

Already more than 140 countries consider or have pledged to reach net-zero emission targets by 2050 or earlier and the share of global emissions falling into an emission pricing scheme has steeply increased over the past three years. Even where there are no direct implications for industry (yet), there is a series of subtle pressure points driving an increasing number of companies across the globe to work towards climate neutrality and pledging ambitious emission reduction goals. This article sheds light on the pressure points, the subtle triggers, the underlying considerations as well as the hoped-for benefits for industrial companies from achieving net-zero emissions. The observations and ideas presented in this paper are derived from quantitative data obtained via the Energy Efficiency Index of German Industry (EEI) and qualitative data. Not only societal, work force, supply chain and investor expectations play a large role, but also many strategic considerations which have the potential to make the company more resilient and profitable, particularly in time of crisis. Those companies that do not move towards decarbonisation, on the other hand, may face a costly late-mover disadvantage. This piece uncovers subtle interconnections, helping stakeholders from industry and beyond to grasp opportunities and challenges ahead.

The Internet of Things (IoT) is one of the most widely used technologies today, and it has a significant effect on our lives in a variety of ways, including social, commercial, and economic aspects. In terms of automation, productivity, and comfort for consumers across a wide range of application areas, from education to smart cities, the present and future IoT technologies hold great promise for improving the overall quality of human life. However, cyber-attacks and threats greatly affect smart applications in the environment of IoT. The traditional IoT security techniques are insufficient with the recent security challenges considering the advanced booming of different kinds of attacks and threats. Utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) expertise, especially machine and deep learning solutions, is the key to delivering a dynamically enhanced and up-to-date security system for the next-generation IoT system. Throughout this article, we present a comprehensive picture on IoT security intelligence, which is built on machine and deep learning technologies that extract insights from raw data to intelligently protect IoT devices against a variety of cyber-attacks. Finally, based on our study, we highlight the associated research issues and future directions within the scope of our study. Overall, this article aspires to serve as a reference point and guide, particularly from a technical standpoint, for cybersecurity experts and researchers working in the context of IoT.

The last few decades have witnessed a surge of interest in adventure sports, and an emerging research focus on these activities. However, recent conceptual analyses and scientific reviews have highlighted a major, fundamental question that remains unresolved: what constitutes an adventure sport (and are they ‘sports’ at all)? Despite several proposals for definitions, the field still seems to lack a shared conceptualization. This deficit may be a serious limitation for research and practice, restricting the development of a more nuanced theoretical explanation of participation and prac-tical implications within and across adventure sports. In this article we address another crucial question, how can adventure sports be better understood for research and practice? We briefly summarize previous definitions to address evident confusion and lack of conceptual clarity in the discourse. Alternatively, we propose how an ecological perspective on human behaviors, as in-teractions with the environment, may provide an appropriate conceptualization to guide and enhance future research and practice, using examples from activities such as freeride skiing / snowboarding, white-water kayaking, climbing, mountaineering and the fields of sport science, psychology and avalanche research and education. We draw on ecological dynamics as a trans-disciplinary approach to discuss how this holistic framework presents a more detailed, nuanced, and precise understanding of adventure sports.

Results from a behavioral economic laboratory experiment are used to enhance our understanding of public health decisions made during the COVID-19 pandemic. The identification of systematic biases from optimal decision theory found in controlled experiments could help inform public policy design for future public health crises. The laboratory and the shelter-in-place decisions made during COVID-19 included elements of risk, uncertainty and ambiguity. The lab findings found individuals adopt different decision rules depending on both personal attributes and on the context and environment in which the decision task is conducted. Key observations to consider in the context of the COVID-19 decision environment include the importance of past experience, the ability to understand and calculate the odds of each action, the size and differences in economic payoffs given the choice, the value of information received, and how past statistical independent outcomes influence future decisions. The academic space encompassing both public health and behavioral economics is small, yet important, particularly in the current crisis. The objective of continued research in this area would be to develop a more representative model of decision-making processes, particularly during crisis, that would serve to enhance future public health policy design.

Business school curriculums are designed to improve business skills and a student’s eventual workplace performance. In addition to these business skill sets the emerging business environment demands softer skills associated with ethical decision-making and sustainable business practices. Understanding the key influencers of ethical orientation and attitudes towards the environment is the first critical step for curriculum planning designed to develop both ethical decision-making and environmental sensibilities of students in business schools. Using a bivariate regression analysis (OLS) that compared the established New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) scale and the newly introduced Ethical Orientation Scale (EOS), this study assesses environmental eco-consciousness and ethical orientation over time and across varying socio-demographic variables. The study shows first, that in addition to socio-cultural variables, situational factors influence ethical decision-making. Secondly, it illuminates that ethical orientations as measured by the EOS predicts beliefs about the environment as measured by the NEP scale. It further provides evidence of the ethical underpinnings of the New Ecological Paradigm as well as provides initial validation for the new EOS. These outcomes provide additional levers to assist business educators in the creation of high impact teaching strategies to measure and encourage ethical decision-making and sustainable business practices that protect the environment.

In air quality management, at urban and regional levels, road transport remains the cornerstone of residential, commercial, and industrial activities, and the vehicle exhaust emissions maintain the position of one of the key contributing sources. In Indian cities, big and small, vehicle exhaust emissions and dust from vehicle movement on the roads, contribute to as much as 50% of particulate matter pollution in a year. So, having access to a vehicle exhaust emissions inventory that is reliable and replicable is critical for air quality management and this exercise starts with access to vehicle stock numbers. These numbers are typically obtained from vehicle registration databases, traffic surveys, and other governmental records, and often require time consuming data cleaning protocols before they can used for emissions and pollution baseline analysis. This paper provides a cleaned and open-access vehicle stock database, as registered and in-use fleet, for the period covering 1993 and 2018, for all India and states, along with an estimate of age-mix of the vehicles using survival functions.

When attempting to quantify future harms caused by carbon emissions and to set appropriate energy policies, it has been argued that the most important metric is the number of human deaths caused by climate change. Several studies have attempted to overcome the uncertainties associated with such forecasting. In this article, approaches to estimating future human deaths tolls from climate change are compared and synthesized, and implications for energy policy are considered. Several studies are consistent with the “1000-ton rule,” according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2°C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming. Such mass manslaughter is clearly unacceptable. On this basis, relatively aggressive energy policies are summarized that would enable immediate and substantive decreases to carbon emissions. The limitations to such calculations are outlined and future work is recommended to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy while minimizing the number of sacrificed human lives.

The ubiquitous connectivity for the space-air-ground integrated network (SAGIN) of the beyond fifth generation of communication and sixth generation of communication (B5G/6G) is envisaged to meet the needs for the demanded quality of service (QoS), green communication, and "dual carbon" target. However, the offloading and computation of massive latency-sensitive tasks dramatically increases the energy consumption of the network. Furthermore, the traditional power supply technology of the network base stations (BSs) enhances the carbon emission. To address these issues, we first propose a SAGIN architecture with energy harvesting devices, where the BS is powered by both renewable energy (RE) and the conventional grid. The BS explores wireless power transfer (WPT) technology to power the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) for stable network operation. RE sharing between neighbouring BSs is designed to fully utilize RE for reduce carbon emission. Secondly, on the basis of task offloading decision, UAV trajectory, and RE sharing ratio, we construct cost functions with joint latency-oriented, energy consumption, and carbon emission. Then, we develop a twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient (TD3PG) algorithm based on deep reinforcement learning to minimize the cost function. Finally, simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the benchmark algorithm in terms of reducing latency, energy saving, and lower carbon emission.

Developing new energy is critical to China's green and low-carbon development. And the New Energy Demonstration City Policy (NEDCP) is a vital innovation policy that inspires the development of new energy. Is the NEDCP facilitating green and low-carbon development, if so, how? Employing unbalanced panel data from 2003 to 2017, the impact of NEDCP on green and low-carbon development was studied by using the "difference in difference" (DID) model. We find that this policy can take significantly role. After various robustness tests, our results are still valid. According to the heterogeneity analysis, non-resource and non-old industrial base cities have a greater positive impact from this policy. The mechanism analysis denotes that the positive policy effect works through upgrading the industrial structure and stimulating urban innovation. The substantial empirical evidence presented in this article supports the continued promotion and implementation of new energy demonstration cities.

Globally, non-timber forest products (NTFPs) continue to contribute vastly to addressing the food, poverty reduction, income, and livelihood requirements of people in rural areas. However, as at now, there is no specific existing data highlighting periodic contributions of NTFPs to the economy of the Eastern region and the country. The study analyses the contribution of NTFPs towards economic development in the Eastern region and the achievement of SDGs in Ghana. Through Focus Group Discussions and qualitative analysis, it was concluded that NTFPs contribute immensely towards the economic development of the Eastern region and the country through employment and direct taxes. Ultimately, it is evident from the study that the destruction of the Atiwa forest reserve for the purpose of bauxite mining will widely hinder the country’s achievement of the SDGs. Also, the study found out that residents will continue to exploit forest resources if the core concerns of institutional deficiencies and rural poverty are not addressed. To curb this situation, there should be sustainable, regulated, and authorized harvesting of NTFPs/NWFPs, community/user empowerment, sectoral education and training programmes, etc. Even though these are common solutions, the study found them extremely rare in the study area.

Socioeconomic conditions and social attitudes are known to represent epidemiological determinants. Credible knowledge on socioeconomic driving factors of the COVID-19 epidemic is still incomplete. Based on a linear random effects regression, a predictive model is derived to estimate COVID-19 incidence in German rural districts from local socioeconomic factors and popularity of political parties in terms of their share of vote. Thereby, time series provided by Germany's public health institute (Robert Koch Institute) of weekly notified 7-day incidences per 100,000 inhabitants per district from the outset of the epidemic in 2020 up to December 1, 2021, have been used to construct the dependent variable. Local socioeconomic conditions including share of votes, retrieved from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, have been used as potential risk factors. Popularity of the right-wing party Alternative for Germany (AfD) bears a considerable risk of increasing COVID-19 incidence both in terms of predicting the maximum incidences during three epidemic periods (alternatively, cumulative incidences over the periods are used to quantify the dependent variable) and in a time-continuous sense. Thus, districts with high AfD popularity rank on top in the time-average regarding COVID-19 incidence. The impact of the popularity of the Free Democrats (FDP) is markedly intermittent in the course of time showing two pronounced peaks in incidence but also occasional drops. A moderate risk emanates from popularities of the Green Party (GRÜNE) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) compared to the other parties with lowest risk level. Socioeconomic parameters like \emph{per capita} income, proportions of protection seekers and social benefit claimants, and educational level have negligible impact. To the contrary, incidence significantly increases with population density. In order to effectively combat the COVID-19 epidemic, public health policymakers are well advised to account for social attitudes and behavioural patterns reflected in local popularities of political parties, which are conceived as proper surrogates for these attitudes. Whilst causal relations between social attitudes and the presence of parties remain obscure, the political landscape in terms of share of votes constitutes at least viable predictive "markers" relevant for public health policy making.

Motorcycles can be considered a new form of smart vehicle when taking into account their small and modern structure and due to the fact that nowadays they are used in the new role of ambu-lance to rapidly reach emergency patients in large cities with traffic congestion. However, there is no study regarding the measuring of access time for motorcycle ambulances in large cities of Thailand. Therefore, this study aims to compare access times to patients between motorcycle ambulances and conventional ambulances, including analysis of the use of AED installed on motorcycle ambulances to contribute to the sustainable development of public health policies. In two hundred and seventy-one operations, it was found that the times from dispatch to vehicle (ambulance and motorlance) being en route and times from the 1669 center (center for com-mand-and-control EMS in Thailand) call receipt to arrival on scene (response time) of motorcycle ambulances was shorter than that of a conventional ambulance and the use of AED on a motor-cycle ambulance can increase the chances of survival for patients with cardiac arrest outside the hospital in public places where AEDs are not available and in all cases where access to an AED was less than eight minutes.

The energy sector plays an important role in Mexico’s development trajectory. Mexico makes an interesting case study, because it shows how difficult it is to reduce fossil energy dependence despite geographic and climatic conditions that favour renewable energy deployment and use. Resolving path dependencies and the related carbon lock-in are key to Mexico’s sustainable energy transition. This case study aims to identify and discuss how carbon lock-in affects Mexico’s sustainable energy transition. Mexico’s carbon lock-in involves oil and oil-run power plants that are costly to build but relatively inexpensive to operate. This case study identifies potential entry points for transitioning towards sustainable energy in Mexico – resources that can promote the use of clean energy despite carbon lock-in. For example, focusing on electrification – particularly of the carbon-intensive sectors – can help Mexico transit towards sustainable energy despite institutional constraints. Complementing this case study is a teaching guide with recommendations for using Mexico’s energy transition in courses on sustainability. It introduces a “learning activation framework” to identify emerging opportunities that can advance sustainable energy transitions in different cases of carbon lock-in. Finally, the framework also gives students a chance to help dismantle or cope with carbon lock-ins.

Background: Australia’s healthcare system is complex and fragmented which can create challenges in healthcare, particularly in rural and remote areas. Aboriginal people experience inequalities in healthcare treatment and outcomes. This study aimed to investigate barriers and enablers to accessing healthcare services for Aboriginal people living in rural and remote Australia. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with healthcare delivery staff and stakeholders recruited through snowball sampling. The communities were selected for their high proportion of Aboriginal people and geographical representation (coastal, rural, and border). Thematic analysis identified barriers and enablers. Results: Thirty-one interviews were conducted (n =5 coastal, n=13 remote, and n=13 border) and six themes identified: 1) Improved coordination of healthcare services; 2) Better communication between services and patients; 3) Trust in services and cultural safety; 4) Importance of prioritizing health services by Aboriginal people; 5) Importance of reliable, affordable and sustainable services; 6) Distance and transport availability. These themes were often present as both barriers and enablers to healthcare access for Aboriginal people. They were also present across the healthcare system and within all three communities. Conclusions: This study describes a pathway to better healthcare outcomes for Aboriginal Australians by providing insights into ways to improve access.

Let us all take a moment to talk, once again, about this new coronavirus pandemic that the world has been facing since November 2019 and about its global response. After a short period marked by the pandemic underestimation risk by most governments, the Western world went nuts and overreacted, most probably so as not to be accused of inaction. In many cases, the overall benefits of the chosen policies were not sufficiently questioned, which resulted in many side effects on global health .The medical motto “primum non nocere”, a moral principle everyone should at least consider following, was evidently not taken into account. It has been overlooked, and the virus has become an obsession, to the extent that nearly everything else, even the most valuable things in life, is still now under appreciated if not simply ignored. This review highlighted facts against this simplistic, one-dimensional view.

When it comes to air pollution complaints, odours are often the most significant contributor. Sources of odour emissions range from natural to anthropogenic. Mitigation of odour can be challenging, multifaceted, site-specific, and is often confounded by its complexity—defined by existing (or non-existing) environmental laws, public ordinances, and socio-economic considerations. The objective of this paper is to review and summarize odour legislation in selected European countries (France, Germany, Austria, Hungary, United Kingdom, Spain, The Netherlands, Italy, Belgium), North America (USA and Canada), South America (Chile and Colombia), as well as Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) and Asia (Japan, China). Many countries have incorporated odour controls into their legislation. However, odour-related assessment criteria tend to be highly variable between countries, individual states, provinces and even counties and towns. Legislation ranges from (1) no specific mention in environmental legislation that regulates pollutants which are known to have an odour impact to (2) extensive details about odour source testing, odour dispersion modeling, ambient odour monitoring, (3) setback distances, (4) process operations, and (5) odour control technologies and procedures. Agricultural operations are one specific source of odour emissions in rural and suburban areas and a model example of such complexities. Management of agricultural odour emissions is important because of the dense consolidation of animal feeding operations and the advance of housing development into rural areas. Overall, there is a need for continued survey, review, development, and adjustment of odour legislation that considers sustainable development, environmental stewardship, and socio-economic realities, all of which are amenable to a just, site-specific, and sector-specific application.

Background: Mitigating climate change requires fundamentally redesigned energy systems in which renewable energy sources ultimately replace fossil fuels such as natural gas. In this context, the question how and to which extent the gas sector can contribute to an increasingly climate-neutral future EU energy system is heavily debated among scholars, energy industry experts and policy makers. Methods: We take a two-step approach: We begin with a review of studies from energy industry and academia to discuss potential gas sector contributions from a holistic energy system design point of view; this is followed by a comprehensive discussion of technical potentials, micro-economic conditions and societal implications of renewable gas. We then enrich our findings with the results of an empirical focus group process. Results: The gas sector can not only contribute to balancing volatile renewable energy production but also enable the supply of renewable energy to end-users in gaseous form; based on existing infrastructure. This could reduce costs for society, increase public acceptance and ultimately speed up the energy system transformation. There is the theoretical technical potential to substitute major parts of natural gas with renewable gas of biogenic and synthetic nature. This, however, crucially requires a supportive policy framework like the one established for renewable electricity. Conclusion: Given the societal benefits and the competitiveness of renewable gas as compared to renewable alternatives, energy policy makers should incorporate renewable gas and the existing gas infrastructure in the future energy system framework. The objective should be an optimized interplay of various energy vectors and their infrastructure along the entire energy supply chain. This requires a level playing field for different renewable technologies across different policy areas and a form of public support that strikes the balance between facilitating the gradual substitution of natural gas by renewable gas while maintaining public acceptance for this transformation despite higher costs for end-users.: Given the societal benefits and the competitiveness of renewable gas as compared to renewable alternatives, energy policy makers should incorporate renewable gas and the existing gas infrastructure in the future energy system framework. The objective should be an optimized interplay of various energy vectors and their infrastructure along the entire energy supply chain. This requires a level playing field for different renewable technologies across different policy areas and a form of public support that strikes the balance between facilitating the gradual substitution of natural gas by renewable gas while maintaining public acceptance for this transformation despite higher costs for end-users.

This paper examines cognitive biases which affect the ability of decision makers to make rational decisions in an organizational context. The motivation for this analysis begins with the observation of catastrophic accidents caused by human error but in an organizational context. This paper expands on the concept of cognitive bias to define organizational biases which are the factors that affect decisions in an organizational context. The paper distinguishes between organizational biases, which are the focus of this paper, and individual biases, which are biases experienced by individuals but may have organizational consequences. The purpose of this paper is to identify methods to mitigate the risks of organizational accidents, accidents which involve many people operating at different levels of an organization. The methodology is to identify those decisions that would address the specific organizational biases. The focus of this paper is the decisions for mitigating the risks associated with decisions in an organizational context. Results are shown for seven organizational biases, six specific case studies, and four decision options. This paper concludes that organizational biases are intrinsically different from individual biases and that these differences lead to different decision options from those that mitigate individual biases; however, they may exist concurrently.

We find at least 4 quantum properties that are indeed universal in some number systems; and we can use them for quantum consciousness. Using the sets B={0,1}, N, Z, or Q has the +4 quantum properties that one can trust, as archetypes of easy communication to friends and foes, to ignoranti or cognoscenti, and for quantum computing. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian geometry to reduce the space of possible results, reducing or increasing initial beliefs by successive experimentation. This is exemplified in biology and mathematics, and can be applied to physics and other sciences. The conclusion is that an experimental fact can be absolutely verified. Any mathematical choice (as verified by computers) militating against R=Q, is under an absolutely low chance to succeed. Infinitesimals are denied based on 3^16 independent factors. This is not a probabilistic result, but based on reduction of the Bayes geometry for updating beliefs. This work applies to non-probabilistic and unknown phenomena, such as those found in oscillations (neutrino, health), evolution, and quantum computing, denies Gödel's uncertainty, and solves the liar's paradox by reflection. This connects different scientific fields with one another, in an internet, i.e., in a network of connections of multiple open networks, using the set Q, resembling a hologram, and includes entanglement.

Due to the rising dependency on digital technology, cybersecurity has emerged as a more prominent field of research and application that typically focuses on securing devices, networks, systems, data and other resources from various cyber-attacks, threats, risks, damages, or unauthorized access. Artificial Intelligence (AI), also referred to as a crucial technology of the current Fourth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0 or 4IR), could be the key to intelligently dealing with these cyber issues. Various forms of AI methodologies, such as analytical, functional, interactive, textual as well as visual AI can be employed to get the desired cyber solutions according to their computational capabilities. However, the dynamic nature and complexity of real-world situations and data gathered from various cyber sources make it challenging nowadays to build an effective AI-based security model. Moreover, defending robustly against adversarial attacks is still an open question in the area. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive view on "Cybersecurity Intelligence and Robustness", emphasizing multi-aspects AI-based modeling and adversarial learning that could lead to addressing diverse issues in various cyber applications areas such as detecting malware or intrusions, zero-day attacks, phishing, data breach, cyberbullying and other cybercrimes. Thus the eventual security modeling process could be automated, intelligent, and robust compared to traditional security systems. We also emphasize and draw attention to the future aspects of cybersecurity intelligence and robustness along with the research direction within the context of our study. Overall, our goal is not only to explore AI-based modeling and pertinent methodologies but also to focus on the resulting model's applicability for securing our digital systems and society.

Considering increasingly ambitious pledges by countries, pressure from society, investors, and clients further up the supply chain, the question for companies is not so much whether to take decarbonisation action, but what action and by when. However, determining an ideal mix of measures to apply ‘decarbonisation efficiency’ requires more than knowledge of technically feasible measures and how to combine them to achieve the most economic outcome: In this paper, the author describes seven aspects which heavily influence the composition of an ‘ideal mix’ that executive leadership needs to take a (strategic) position on. These aspects consider underlying motivations and span across (socio-)economic, technical, regulatory, strategic, corporate culture and environmental factors and further underline the necessity of clarity of definitions. How these decisions influence the determination of the decarbonisation-efficient ideal mix of measures, both in principle but also in terms of specific impact is further explored by providing examples. What choices are taken by German manufacturers in several of the aspects is disclosed by insights from about 850 responses to the ‘Energy Efficiency Index of German Industry’. Knowledge of the status quo, and clarity in definitions, objectives, time frames and scope are key.

Neutrosophic cubic set is the hybridization of the concept of neutrosophic set and interval neutrosophic set. Neutrosophic cubic set has the capacity to express the hybrid information of both the interval neutrosophic set and the single valued neutrosophic set simultaneously. As newly defined, little research on the operations and applications of neutrosophic cubic sets appear in the current literature. In the present paper we propose the score, accuracy functions for neutrosophic cubic sets and prove their basic properties. We firstly develop TODIM method to solve multi attribute group decision making in neutrosophic cubic set environment, which we call NC-TODIM. Also, we solve a MAGDM problem using the proposed NC-TODIM method to show the applicability and effectiveness of the developed method. We also conduct sensitivity analysis to show the impact of ranking order of the alternatives for different values of attenuation factor of losses for multi-attribute group decision making problem.

A general consensus is that the conventional linear modalities guarantee no industrial sustenance in long run for many obvious reasons. This is where the topicality of circularity has been accentuated for the last two decades or so in socio-political arena. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that the emphasis given to circularity in the construction industry is relatively low. Tackling this issue essentially warrants a rigorous co-production of integrated knowhow preferably beyond sectorial boundaries. The present study sheds light on interdisciplinary approaches taken to deal with the slowness in transmuting circularity into construction sector. A comprehensive literature survey was undertaken to understand this phenomenon at policy, firm and site level. The analysis included one hundred twenty-eight (128) articles published in high impact journals between 2003 and 2024. Eighty seven (87) gaps in terms of theory, knowledge, practice, method, empiricism and policy were observed. Forty four (44) thematic sub-clusters have the potential of empirical research. A new framework was finally proposed to scaffold the systemic transition towards a circular construction sector. On a practical level, the study offer valuable insights and instruments for the industry personnel to gauge the efficacy of their own circular approaches and initiatives.

In an era characterized by technological disruption and unprecedented challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, this scholarly investigation explores the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in shaping Leadership Dynamics in Higher Education Institutions (LDHE) within the specific socio-cultural and regulatory environment of China. Utilizing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) as operationalized through the SMART_PLS software, this research harnessed data from a robust sample of 381 key stakeholders in China higher education. The study's empirical findings indicate a noteworthy impact of AI-informed decision-making processes on LDHE, which was further mediated by the variable of AI Literacy among leadership. Moreover, the consequences of the ongoing pandemic served as a moderating factor in this relationship. These nuanced outcomes not only contribute to the theoretical discourse surrounding educational leadership and technological integration but also provide actionable insights for policy formulation and institutional strategies in an increasingly complex educational landscape.

Climate change has become a major agenda item in international relations and in national energy policy-making circles around the world. This article studies the surprising evolution of the energy policy, and more particularly the energy transition, currently happening in the Arabian Gulf region, which features some of the world’s largest exporters of oil and gas. Qatar, Saudi Arabia and other neighboring energy exporters, plan to export blue and green hydrogen across Asia as well as towards Europe in the years and decades to come. Although poorly known and understood abroad, this recent strategy doesn’t threaten the current exports of oil and gas (still needed for a few decades) but prepares the evolution of their national energy industries towards the future decarbonized energy demand of their main customers in East and South Asia, and beyond. The world’s largest exporters of Liquefied Natural Gas, Qatar, has established industrial policies and projects to upscale CCUS, which can enable blue hydrogen production, as well as natural carbon sinks domestically via afforestation projects.

This study examined the effect of the media usage environment, particularly TV and SNS devices, on advertisement acceptance, lifestyle, and psychological satisfaction. Hypothesis pathways and comparative structural mediating effects were analyzed. Media and Consumer Research public data were used for empirical analysis. A total of 6,640 people who participated in sports activities were included in the study. The results demonstrated that TV and SNS device usage environments had similar effects on advertisement acceptance. While TV did not influence the pursuit of personal life, SNS device use environments affected the pursuit of personal life. SNS device use environments had a greater effect on individual psychological satisfaction than TV. Adoption had a mediating effect on the influence of media usage environments on the pursuit of personal life. The pursuit of a personal life had a significant mediating effect on the influence of media use environments on psychological stability. This study revealed no differences in the effects of new and traditional media on advertisement acceptance, while new media had a greater influence on lifestyle and psychological satisfaction.

In order to investigate the relationship between government policy, the service and design of rural crowdsourcing spaces, the self-efficacy of returning youth, and the innovation performance of businesses, this study focuses on gathering data by distributing questionnaires to returning youth in rural crowdsourcing spaces and developing a structural model. The results demonstrate how important government policies are in encouraging youth entrepreneurship in their local communities. It has the potential to enhance both the development of rural crowdsourcing spaces and the self-efficacy of young entrepreneurs, thereby enhancing the innovative capabilities of local entrepreneurial businesses. Therefore, in order to encourage economic development in rural areas, the government should improve pertinent support measures.

The Victorian Government Inquiry into wildfires that killed 173 people in 2009 has driven an Australian policy shift from self-evacuation or staying and defending a well-prepared property (‘go or stay’) to self-evacuation under catastrophic fire weather (‘leave early’). The Inquiry also led to the establishment of national ‘performance standards’ for Private Fire Shelters (PFS, that also known as bunkers). Nonetheless, incorporation of PFS into national bushfire policy remains embryonic with only Victoria having streamlined accreditation and planning approval processes. Arguments against PFS include potentially engendering complacency about preparing dwellings to survive fire and encourage risky behavior in response to a fire threat. Counteracting these arguments is research that shows that residents without PFS have low engagement with bushfire preparation and typically delay evacuation. In any case, because wildfire is unpredictable it is accepted that self-evacuation plans must have fallback positions that include sheltering ‘in place’ from the bushfire, making properly used and well maintained PFS an important element of bushfire safety. A less discussed barrier to PFS uptake outside Victoria appears to hinge on a lack of clarity about obligations for their design, certification, and consistency with planning approvals. The escalating Australian fire crisis demands much greater research and development in legal frameworks, policy and planning processes for PFS, as well as design and construction standards.

In its 8th Malaysia Plan (MP*), the Malaysian government has given nanotechnology development a high priority and has been made a Strategic Research (SR) programme. Consequently, an exhaustive and long-term approach is essential. Additionally, specific laws are required to provide an optimal health and safety environment for workers. Consequently, the current study intends to assist Malaysian policymakers in promoting improved safety, risk assessment, and management for nanotechnology workplaces, as well as drafting a comprehensive policy for the recently released DOSH guideline in 2018. Utilizing a unique methodology, this study evaluated the assessment and management of nanotechnology health and safety risks in Malaysia using the international risk governance council (IRGC) framework. In addition to document analysis, n = 20 semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives of several nanotechnology platforms to collect data that was then analyzed thematically. The research evaluated current workplace safety regulations and laws. Consequently, we propose a future dynamic strategy for Malaysian nanotechnology with more favourable upgrades supported by increased concentrations in the following areas: I policy creation, ii) comprehensive management system, iii) knowledge transfer, and iv) infrastructure management. In addition, the findings highlight the need of cross-sectional communication in bridging existing gaps. This study laid the groundwork for a more systematic and comprehensive health and safety strategy.

Biological events—including outbreaks and pandemics, biological weapons use, or accidental laboratory release—have the potential to be extremely disruptive. The ability to accurately investigate, identify origins of, and attribute these events is critical for deterring deliberate events and implementing interventions to prevent future natural or accidental events. However, historical examples of biological event attribution and origins investigations illustrate significant gaps in processes, from technical capabilities to communications, and have lacked conclusive consensus among decision makers, the public, and scientists. This study aimed to assess attitudes and expectations of a broad range of stakeholders regarding investigations and evidence generated for biological attribution. We interviewed 41 experts in disciplines related to attribution and investigations and analyzed interview content using a mixed-methods approach. Interviews generated a list of factors to consider when planning or conducting investigations, presented here. Opinions concerning the conduct and reporting of biological samples analyses and perceptions of feasibility of attribution varied among interviewees representing different fields of study. Participant opinions varied less in regard to requirements, protocols, and guidelines thought to be important to maintain confidence and trust in an investigation and evidence. Findings from this study can inform planning for future events.

The steep rise in reinforcement learning (RL) in various applications in energy as well as the penetration of home automation in recent years are the motivation for this article. It surveys the use of RL in various home energy management system (HEMS) applications. There is a focus on deep neural network (DNN) models in RL. The article provides an overview of reinforcement learning. This is followed with discussions on state-of-the-art methods for value, policy, and actor–critic methods in deep reinforcement learning (DRL). In order to make the published literature in reinforcement learning more accessible to the HEMS community, verbal descriptions are accompanied with explanatory figures as well as mathematical expressions using standard machine learning terminology. Next, a detailed survey of how reinforcement learning is used in different HEMS domains is described. The survey also considers what kind of reinforcement learning algorithms are used in each HEMS application. It suggests that research in this direction is still in its infancy. Lastly, the article proposes four performance metrics to evaluate RL methods.

By 2020, over 100 countries expanded electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (EV/PHEV) technologies, with global sales surpassing 7 million units. Governments are adopting cleaner vehicle technologies due to proven environmental and health implications of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), evidenced by the recent COP26 meeting. This article proposes an agent-based model of vehicle activity as a tool for quantifying energy consumption by simulating a fleet of EV/PHEVs within an urban street network at various spatio-temporal resolutions. Driver behaviour plays a significant role in fuel consumption, thus, simulating various levels of individual behaviour enhancing heterogeneity should provide more accurate results of potential energy demand in cities. The study found that 1) energy consumption is lowest when speed limit adherence increases (low variance in behaviour) and is highest when acceleration/deceleration patterns vary (high variance in behaviour) and 2) on average, for tested vehicles, EV/PHEVs were £116.33 cheaper to run than ICEVs across all experiment conditions. The difference in the average fuel costs (electricity and petrol) shrinks at the vehicle level as driver behaviour is less varied (more homogeneous). This research should allow policymakers to quantify the demand for energy and subsequent fuel costs in cities.

This paper intends to examine whether a company’s policy of dividend would impact or influence the price fluctuation of respective common stock in the designated stock market particularly in Hong Kong. Hence, there are 354 companies in Hong Kong which are all listed company on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (HKEX), were chosen as sample data for analysis with their audited financial information ranged from 2001 to 2020. Two proxies, the yield and the ratio of pay-out of dividend were widely adopted for the measurement of the effect of dividend policy and the possible influence on the volatility of respective common stock price by employing two statistical models, which are the model of fixed and random effects to provide accurate regression coefficients. With the results from the model of fixed effects, the yield and the pay-out ratio of dividend have been found statistically associated to the price volatilization of respective common stock in Hong Kong. The statical results in this study also find the yield and the ratio of pay-out of dividend are apparently and negatively associated to the price volatilization of respective common stock in Hong Kong. The research outcomes will be a reference for further study on different variables may have effects or volatilize the price of common stock price particularly in Hong Kong capital market.

Climate change causes weather extremes to rise in frequency and severity, which could have detrimental effects on human life, property and livelihood activity. There is significant uncertainty about the influences of anthropogenic climate change on the occurrence and severity of small-scale, sudden onset weather phenomena such as hailstorms and subsequent loss and damage. Yet, several studies indicate that there is an apparent stable connection between hailstorm activity and hailstorm damage. Severe hailstorm events are observed in Bangladesh in recent years, which are, in fact, rapid-onset disasters but low exposure in terms of giving government response and media consideration. Hence this study examines potential impacts and management strategies for loss and damage resulting from hailstorm events among smallholder farmers in Kurigram District's Phulbari Upazila of Bangladesh. Firstly, the direct and long term economic and non-economic loss and damage caused by the hailstorm on human well-beings and livelihoods were assessed. Then, the study evaluated the current adaptation, coping, management and response strategies at the institutional and community level in the context of such extreme events. Finally, a regulatory framework and implementation approaches had suggested achieving the country's resilience against disaster and climate change-induced loss and damage. Participatory Vulnerability Analysis, Key Informant Interviews and Sample Surveys accumulated the primary data for the study. In addition, secondary data were collected through analysis of literature, published and unpublished scientific articles and media reports, etc. This research outcome will help countries develop a guideline to address climate change and disaster-related loss and damage.

The forest transition – or forest-area transition – has been put forward as a land-use concept by A.S. Mather in 1992 (The forest transition. Area 24, 367-379), to describe the historical trend generally observed in the forest area of developed countries, embodied in a V-shaped curve of the forest area over time, and that may serve as a paradigm to understand and anticipate deforestation in the developing world. Well in line with a geographical approach to forests, forest transition has thus been defined as one-dimensional, forest area being the reference state variable. From a forestry perspective, the analysis appears to be reductive, as forests are described by many other state variables than area, including forest growing stock, composition in tree species, or stand structure. Whether the drivers of forest transition (population dynamics, economic modes of production and consciousness, as classified by Mather) also impact these other forest state variables in a general way thus comes forth as a logical issue.From a deductive analysis of forest transition drivers, and from forest trends brought to light in Europe, France, and at other places in the world, we here argue that the forest transition concept can be extended to a multi-dimensional space of forest attributes, characterized by typical ideal dynamics. Cumulative impacts onto forests and irreversible losses in forest biodiversity over a forest transition are hence highlighted. Global change, as a parallel consequence of countries’ developing process, further appears as one additional albeit less coupled dimension of forest transition, as it modifies forest productivity and vitality over time. Since forest ecosystem services and forest profitability primarily depend on such attributes, we argue that the extension of the forest transition concept has significance for land-use change and forest protection issues. A prospect on future changes in the forests of developed countries with the European space as a benchmark is finally proposed that leads to extend the temporal significance of forest transition. Though poorly described, returning forests on abandoned agricultural lands are significant, and deserve greater attention.

Multiple social and environmental justice concerns are linked to urban form such as the distribution of socioeconomic class populations, healthcare spending, air pollution exposure, and human mobility. This study used 1m resolved LIDAR data to characterize land use in Salt Lake County, Utah and associate it with sociodemographic and air quality data at the census block group and zip code levels. We found that increasing tree cover was associated with higher per capita income and lower minority populations while increasing built cover was linked to lower per capita income and higher minority populations. Air quality showed less strong correlations, however, decreased non irrigated cover, increased built cover, and higher amounts of households living under poverty was related to higher long-term PM2.5 exposure. Several policy efforts have been undertaken to improve air quality and reduce negative health outcomes in Utah which are being informed by regulatory and research grade air quality sensors.

Frequent flooding from sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the immediate climate change impacts affecting low-lying and exposed coastal communities. These communities rely upon the delivery of three-waters services for wastewater, stormwater and water supply. Due to ongoing SLR, managing these networks will increasingly be a challenge. This raises the issue of how local government can reconcile maintaining levels of service as the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties worsen over the coming decades (and beyond). Can they be adapted over time to retain levels of service or will they eventually require retreat and if so at what adaptation threshold? This paper explores managed retreat of two-waters infrastructure (wastewater and stormwater) as an adaptation option using a Dynamic Adaptive Pathway Planning (DAPP) approach. In the study, we use DAPP to frame the retreat of two-water networks, developing a combination of an area specific retreat strategy, pathway portfolios, retreat phases, land use change signaling and identify pathway conflicts and synergies. Repurposing retreated areas by utilizing Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) options was found to extend retreat thresholds for adjacent areas. A systematic ’routine’ developed in this study provides a structured approach for managed retreat of two-water infrastructure with the aim to reduce future disruption from flooding, signal land use changes early and allow for gradual budget adjustments by the agencies to manage expenditure over time. This approach helps inform and improve the decision-making process for the agencies and the communities they serve, by providing a stepwise process that can be communicated spatially and visually, thereby making a retreat adaptation option more manageable.

Referring to the concept of inclusive growth, the authors analyse the transition economies of the Central and Eastern European countries, which are the current EU members (Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia). That region was selected as the CEE countries characterized by comparable historic and economic background but now they seem to reach diversified stages of development. The objective of the study is to identify the level of inclusive growth among the CEE countries, taking into account indicators assigned to its seven pillars. The thesis is that the CEE countries represent socio and economic heterogeneity as well as different levels of sustainable development. The research methods involved the application of the principal components analysis and the multivariate analysis. For literature review, the bibliometric analysis was conducted with the visualization prepared by the VOSviewer software. The main findings suggest that Estonia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic seem to be the ones with the highest inclusive growth. On the other hand, Bulgaria and Romania represent the lowest level of inclusive growth indicators.

REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) aims to achieve its purpose by working across multiple sectors and involving multi-level actors in reducing deforestation and forest degradation in tropical countries. By contrast, the European Union (EU) Action Plan on Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) and its Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPAs) focus on forestry and functions at bilateral state level. The FLEGT Action Plan specifically aims to tackle illegal logging, legalise timber production and trade improve forest governance in countries exporting tropical timber to the EU. Since illegal logging is just one driver of deforestation and forest degeneration, and legalisation of logging does not necessarily reduce deforestation and forest degradation, the two instruments differ in scale and scope. However, by addressing the causes of deforestation and forest degradation and their underlying governance issues, the EU FLEGT and REDD+ share many functional linkages at higher levels of forest policy and forest governance. The contribution and participation of civil society organisations (CSOs) and other actors is imperative to both processes. Our study is based on a survey of key actors (national and international) in REDD+ and FLEGT VPA processes in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Our analysis was guided by the theoretical perspectives of the policy arrangement approach and examination of two specific dimensions of this approach, namely resources and rules of the game. This paper argues that participation of CSOs in both processes is crucial as it facilitates and nurtures the very much needed cooperation between other national and international actors. The paper also argues that participation of CSOs feeds valuable information and knowledge into REDD+ and FLEGT VPA processes, thus contributing to increased legitimacy, justice and transparency.

With the rapid development of intelligent logistics and network environment, it has become an urgent problem to efficiently and accurately handle and analyse the huge amount of uncertain decision information. Traditional decision making methods often fail to make the best use of complex and incomplete information, especially in the field of cyber defence. To address these problems, this paper introduces a new mathematical tool, discrete multidimensional Z-numbers (MZs), for expressing and dealing with uncertainty and reliability in network defence decisions. In this paper, we first introduce the synthesis method of discrete multidimensional Z-numbers, which allows us to consider the uncertainty and reliability of multi-source information in network defence strategy. Then, the hidden probability of MZs is calculated by using the hidden probability model, and the multidimensional Z+−number is proposed, which improves the expressiveness of the model in dealing with information uncertainty. Based on MZs, we define a variety of utility functions and build a multi-attribute group decision framework for network defence around these functions. The MZs provides a novel perspective for analysing and designing response strategies, especially against highly adaptive and covert attacks. The method in this paper is verified by a case of network security assessment of an intelligent logistics company. The results show that this method can significantly improve the accuracy and efficiency of decision making, demonstrating its unique advantages and wide application potential in network defence. This integrated discrete multidimensional Z-number group decision method is not only suitable for intelligent logistics decision making, but also provides an efficient decision support tool for network defence, which helps to improve the intelligence and adaptability of network security defence.

Every firm is devoted to polishing and fine-tuning its maintenance strategy. More exactly, when we develop robust and efficient preventive and conditional maintenance approaches, our objective is to combine performance and robustness to increase maintenance decision-making. This, in turn, leads to a reduction in system failures and a subsequent drop in related expenses. This impulse drives the origin of this essay: to provide fresh criteria that allow us to improve and optimize maintenance techniques. Furthermore, our study has been realistically utilized via the deployment of condition-based maintenance (CBM) techniques, which are commonly regarded as a critical lever that allows firms to gain a competitive advantage in the context of the fourth industrial revolution. Combining both perfect and imperfect maintenance actions into CBM strategies appears to be an effective technique to obtain high economic performance and robustness in the maintenance strategies of the companies. Following this idea, we propose and optimize in this paper a set of criteria enabling the combined assessment of the mean economic performance and the resilience of various kinds of maintenance techniques. The advantage of the proposed criterion is that it adapts to different types of maintenance strategies and provides access to a simple and relevant evaluation model. Thanks to this new criterion, we will be able to choose the better maintenance strategies that have more performance and robustness between these strategies for a system with more or less stable behavior. The Monte Carlo Method is incorporated into the comparative assessment of maintenance methods, adding a layer to the evaluation of the performance and robustness of each adaptation in decision-making.