Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a severe parasitic disease transmitted by phlebotomine sandflies. VL is endemic in West Pokot County, Kenya, where effective strategies to interrupt transmission are impeded by the limited understanding of VL risk factors. Therefore, this case-control study aimed to explore environmental, behavioral and household determinants of VL in West Pokot. From November 2022 to January 2023, a structured questionnaire was administered to 36 symptomatic primary VL cases attending the Kacheliba Sub-County Hospital and to 50 controls from local villages. The VL status of all participants was confirmed using an rK39 rapid diagnostic test. In an age-corrected univariate logistic regression analysis, significant associations were found between VL and housing characteristics, such as window presence and floor type. Furthermore, outdoor activities, including traveling outside the residence for more than 2 weeks, activities near termite mounds, and forest activities during the rainy season increased the risk of VL. VL cases more frequently reported the presence of cattle, dogs and sheep in their house yards at night. VL was also associated with cutting down trees in the house yard and house proximity to several Acacia tree species. To conclude, this work reports a number of previously undescribed risk factors for VL in the understudied West Pokot focus. Our findings warrant further research into sandfly ecology and potential zoonotic parasite reservoirs in West Pokot.

HIV diagnosis and poor HIV management have various detrimental impacts on the lives of people living with HIV (PLHIV). As part of a large qualitative study investigating HIV risk factors and impacts, with the suicide topic not being a focus, this paper describes factors contributing to suicidal ideation and attempts that arose naturally in the stories of women living with HIV (WLHIV) in Yogyakarta and Belu districts, Indonesia. The participants were recruited using the snowball sampling technique. Guided by a qualitative data analysis framework, the data were thematically analysed. Findings indicated participants experienced immense psychological challenges due to the infection, spousal transmission, fear of mother-to-child transmission, and losing a child due to AIDS, which triggered suicidal ideation and attempts. The women’s lack of awareness of HIV management strategies resulted in them feeling trapped and overwhelmed. Associated negative thoughts and the anticipation and experience of stigma relating to their HIV status were influencing factors for thoughts of suicide among participants. Lack of social support from family and friends during the early stage of HIV diagnosis, compounded with pre-existing financial difficulties, lack of income, unemployment, and feeling overburdened, also triggered the women’s thoughts of suicide. Other influencing factors for suicidal ideation and attempts among the women were family breakdown following HIV diagnosis and this was reflected in family disputes, husband-wife separation or divorce, mother-child separation by other family members, reported concern about future relationships, and fear of being rejected or abandoned by their partner due to their HIV positive status. The findings indicate the need for a nuanced approach to counselling within HIV care interventions for couples to support the acceptance of each other’s HIV status whilst maintaining psychological wellbeing. Additionally, the findings indicate the importance of HIV education and awareness among community members for the de-stigmatisation of HIV and to increase the acceptance of PLHIV within families and communities.

Background. In a changing European agricultural context, diversification of dairy farms is gaining attention. This study seeks to (1) assess musculoskeletal pain prevalence associated with tasks such as butter, yogurt, and cheese production; and (2) analyze associated risks. Methods. Observing 31 mostly female workers, it utilized the ERGOROM questionnaire, a methodology adapted from the Institut National de Recherche et de Sécurité, and Key Indicator Method forms. Results. Findings revealed that tasks like load carrying (42% of workers), manual work (17%), and awkward postures (14%) resulted in musculoskeletal pain, predominantly in the lower back (65%), neck (39%), and dominant upper limb areas (shoulder: 61%, elbow: 26%, and wrist: 65%). While psychosocial risks remained low, concerns arose from workload, hygiene standards, and resource unpredictability. Conclusions. As dairy farming evolves from artisanal to semi-industrial, the study emphasizes the importance of ergonomic adaptations to protect farmer health and prevent musculoskeletal disorders during diversification.

Machine Learning techniques can be used to identify whether deficits in cognitive functions contribute to antisocial and aggressive behavior. This paper initially presents the results of tests conducted on delinquent and non-delinquent youths to assess their cognitive functions. The dataset extracted from these assessments, consisting of 37 predictor variables and one target. was used to train three algorithms that aim to predict whether the data corresponds to that of a young offender or a non-offending youth. Prior to this, statistical tests were conducted on the data to identify characteristics that exhibited significant differences in order to select the most relevant features and optimize the prediction results. Additionally, other feature selection methods, such as Boruta, RFE, and Filter, were applied, and their effects on the accuracy of each of the three machine learning models used (SVM, RF, and KNN) were compared. 80% of the data were utilized for training, while the remaining 20% were used for validation. The best result was achieved by the K-NN model trained with 19 features selected by the Boruta method, followed by the SVM model trained with 24 features selected by the filter method.

The perception of the impacts of climate risks on health systems in the Grand Lomé region of Togo is diverse. This study was carried out based on information collected in the field. The investigation was based on a questionnaire, individual interviews and field observations. Data collection was carried out in a purposive manner in twenty-four (24) health facilities with a total of 112 health service people and 13 resource people affected. This article presents the results on the perception of the impacts of climate change on health personnel, the environment and buildings. The results show that 92.31% of respondents attest that climate change has impacts on health personnel; 84.62% on the environment and 84.62% on buildings and other health infrastructure. This study shows that climate change has real consequences on human health. It is therefore urgent that those responsible for health systems in the Grand Lomé region, which is home to the capital of Togo, can focus on finding adaptation measures in relation to each health structure and according to its intervention platform.

Background: Vitamin B12 is a water-soluble vitamin with important cellular functions and is an essential vitamin. The aim of this study is to determine the B12 levels of children in the period from the 6th month when they start taking additional foods to the age of 7 and the risk factors affecting them. Methods: One hundred pediatric patients aged 6-72 months who were diagnosed with vitamin B12 deficiency and their parents who agreed to participate in Istanbul Atlas University, Medical Faculty, “Medicine Hospital” Pediatric Clinic between September 2022 and June 2023 were prospectively included in this study. Results: B12 deficiency was significantly higher in the 6-11 (25%) month group than those in the 12-23 (5.8%) and 24-47 (2.8%) month groups. Homocysteine levels were highest in those with insufficient B12 levels compared to the other groups. There was no statistically significant difference in weekly dairy and meat consumption levels between age groups. B12 levels were lower in the 6-11-month group than in the other groups. Homocysteine levels were highest in those with insufficient B12 levels [<200 pg/mL (148 pmol/L)]. Folic acid levels were lower in the 24-47 month and 48-72 month groups than in the 6-11 month and 12-23 month groups. Conclusions: The results obtained in this study showed that low vitamin B12 and increased homocysteine levels seem to be important risk factors in children, especially from the 6th month when they start taking additional foods. The diagnosis of B12 deficiency can be confirmed by elevated serum total homocysteine levels, which are evidence of functional cobalamin deficiency.

Patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) or cirrhosis undergoing surgery have an increased risk of morbidity and mortality in contrast to the general population. Retrospective, observational study of ACLD patients to evaluate the predictive capacity of previous surgical risk scores in a European cohort of patients. ACLD was defined by the presence of thrombocytopenia <150.000/uL and splenomegaly; AST-to-Platelet Ratio Index >2; nodular liver edge by ultrasound; transient elastography >15 kPa and/or signs of portal hypertension. We assessed variables related to 90-day mortality and the discrimination and calibration of current surgical scores (Child-Pugh, MELD-Na, MRS, NSQIP, and VOCAL-Penn). Only patients with ACLD and major surgeries included in VOCAL-Penn were considered (n=512). The mortality rate at 90 days after surgery was 9.8%. Baseline disparities between H. Mar and VOCAL-Penn cohorts were identified. Etiology, obesity, or platelet count not were associated with mortality. The VOCAL-Penn showed the best discrimination (C-statistic90D= 0.876) and overall predictive capacity (Brier90D= 0.054) but calibration was not excellent in our cohort. VOCAL-Penn was suboptimal in patients with diabetes (C-statistic30D= 0.770), without signs of portal hypertension (C-statistic30D= 0.555), or with an abdominal wall (C-statistic30D= 0.608) or urgent (C-statistic180D= 0.692) surgeries. Our European cohort has shown a mortality rate after surgery similar to those described in American studies. However, some variables included in the VOCAL-Penn score were not associated with mortality, and VOCAL-Penn’s discriminative ability decreases in patients with diabetes, without signs of portal hypertension, and with abdominal wall or urgent surgeries. These results should be validated in larger multicenter and prospective studies.

Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Numerous pathophysiological mechanisms, such as abnormal cell proliferation, cell differentiation, resistance to apoptosis, invasion of structures adjacent to colorectal tumor cells, and distant metastasis, are involved in colorectal carcinogenesis. These processes are initiated by the complex interaction of a number of genetic and environmental factors, including sedentary lifestyle, obesity, alcohol consumption, smoking or gut microbiota. Despite the significant progress achieved in the diagnostic and therapeutic management of patients with colorectal cancer, there has been recently a noteworthy increase in the incidence of colorectal cancer in individuals below the age of 50 years. Early-onset colorectal cancer has a different frequency of oncogenic mutations, a higher prevalence of mucinous histology, a distinct deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) methylation profile, a more distal location, and lower survival rates. A significant improvement in the prognosis of these patients can be achieved through the detection and removal of modifiable risk factors, along with the implementation of personalized screening strategies for individuals at high risk for this malignancy. Furthermore, gaining comprehension of the pathophysiological mechanisms by which these risk factors contribute to the process of oncogenesis may facilitate the discovery of novel therapeutic targets.

The rapid development of the regional economy in China has led to the rise of local ecological risks. It is very important to provide enjoyable ecosystem services to residents while reducing ecological risks. In order to understand spatial relationships between ecosystem services and ecological risks, we took Chongqing as an example in this study to assess the spatial relationship between ecosystem services and ecological risks at the county scale based on the ES-DPSIR system. The main findings include: (1) significant variation in the spatial distribution of the comprehensive ecosystem service index, where the lowest ecosystem service index (0.013) was found in the main urban area of Chongqing and the scores gradually increased outward from this center, reaching 0.689 in the outermost areas, (2) the increase of the comprehensive ecological risk index from east to west, ranging from -0.134 to 0.333, (3) the spatial relationship between ecosystem services and ecological risks was prominent, with 52.63% of the districts and counties being imbalanced or mild imbalanced, and (4) the significant differences between development trends of ecosystem services-ecological risks, including 60.53% being imbalanced districts and 30.47% mildly balanced. Overall, it was necessary to improve the relationship between ecosystem services and ecological risks in Chongqing by reducing ecological risks., and these research results could provide effective approaches and technical support for improving regional ecological security and enhancing ecosystem service capabilities.

In this systematic review of the literature on using Machine Learning (ML) for credit risk prediction, we raise the need for financial institutions to use AI and ML to assess credit risk, analyzing large volumes of information. We posed research questions about algorithms, metrics, results, data sets, variables, and related limitations in predicting credit risk. We searched renowned databases to answer them and identified 52 relevant studies with the credit industry microfinance. Challenges and approaches in credit risk prediction using ML models we identified, difficulties with the implemented models such as the black box model, the need for explanatory artificial intelligence, the importance of selecting relevant features, addressing multicollinearity, and the problem of the imbalance in the input data. By answering the questions, we identified that the Boosted Category is the most researched family of ML models; the most commonly used metrics for evaluation are Area Under Curve (AUC), Accuracy (ACC), Recall, precision measure F1 (F1), and Precision; Research mainly uses public data sets to compare models, and private ones to generate new knowledge when applied to the real world. The most significant limitation identified is the representativeness of reality, and the variables primarily used in the microcredit industry are related data to the demographic, the operation, and payment behavior. This study aims to guide the developers of credit risk management tools and software towards the existing offer of ML methods, metrics, and techniques used to forecast it, thereby minimizing possible losses due to default and guiding risk appetite.

The rapid changes in technology on a global scale, combined with the widespread adoption of business operations in cyberspace, have intensified the need for robust protection against escalating risks posed by cyber threats. This research paper aims to identify fundamental cyber resilience management attributes that enable organizations to manage cybersecurity, sustain, and adapt amidst evolving cyber risks and threats. By integrating resilience theory and security theory, this study establishes the attributes for resilience within cyber domains, making a novel contribution to cyber resilience management in organizations. The study introduces a model featuring seven main variables: Rationale, Reliable, Readiness, Resistance, Robust, Rebound, Reflective, and sub-variables across the Physical, Logical, and Social cyber domains, providing a converged framework for achieving cyber resilience. The findings of the study highlight the significance of fundamental attributes for enhancing cyber resilience management in organizations, such as clarity in purpose, vision, and values for security management, an empowered culture, availability of resources, avoidance of single points of failure, development, and coordination of resources to respond to threats and risks, promotion of continual improvement, and the sharing of information and knowledge. In conclusion, this research paper presents a model for managing cybersecurity in organizations by identifying key attributes for achieving cyber resilience.

Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, apparently the objective variable should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models - in terms, that is, of their goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy - is often based on the logarithmic scale of the mortality rate. In this article, we examine whether the same forecast outcomes are obtained when the performance of mortality models is assessed based on the original and log scales of the mortality rate. We compare four different stochastic mortality models: the original Lee-Carter model, the Lee-Carter model with (log-)normal distribution, the Lee-Carter model with Poisson distribution and the median Lee-Carter model. We show that the preferred model will depend on the scale of the objective variable, the selection criteria measure and the range of ages analysed.

In the overall context of national eco-conservation civilization development and considering the hills in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi region, the local forest coverage rate is gradually on the rise, and so is the risk of forest fire. Every year, satellites can monitor and detect hundreds of fire spots on average. In recent years, serious fire took place for several times, leading to loss of life and personal injury. Then the fire-fighting work consumed huge amount of labor and material resources, exerting negative social impacts in many ways. Thus, the analysis of fire climate background in this region and the forecast based on fire weather indexes constitute an important part in the forest fire risk management. Located in the tropical monsoon climate zone, four provinces and municipalities of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shanxi are similar in terms of climate characteristics. This study tries to analyze the characteristics about fire spots under satellite monitoring, fire climate and fire weather index. The probability distribution analysis of weather index about fire spots in history and key meteorological observation stations as well as the weather index analysis in the early stage of typical fire indicate that the Fine Fuel Moisture Content (FFMC) and the Initial Spread Index (ISI) in the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system is applicable to the fire risk analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi region, which can also effectively indicate the fuel moisture and spread conditions. As regards to the average level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi, when the FFMC is smaller than 93.5 and the ISI is also smaller than 5.0, there is a low risk of fire; when the FFMC is above 94 and the ISI is larger than 10.0, there is a high risk of fire; and the fire risk will be extremely high if the FFMC is over 96 and the ISI is above 13.0. In the practical fire-fighting management, the fire danger class can be released in reference to the ISI classes and threshold values of key meteorological observation stations under analysis provided by this study.

Without doubt, the social and environmental business impact will become more important as the governments cannot take care about these problems. Thus, launching the EU Green deal rules, World Global Sustainable Development Goals, corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities and strategies are part of this global commitment. Additionally, CSR is strongly connected to the exploration of (social) market awareness and technology development and application as it focusses on social, environmental and economic business impact. The main goal of the paper is to verify that contemporary greener CSR strategies are beneficiary activity for high-tech companies because of better competitive advantages acquisition through management of corporate reputation risk and patenting innovative technologies. The structure of the paper is the next: 1. Introduction – explanation the previous researches that explore the relation: CSR strategy – high-tech company competitiveness; 2. State of art – exploring the corporate reputation and patent rights as factors in CSR strategy; 3. Patent monopoly and CSR – research the connection between reputation risks of patents rights and CSR strategy; 4. Business performance and CSR reporting – briefly research methodology is presented as some results from Bulgarian companies; 5. Discussion and conclusions – summarizing a methodology for patent rights and reputation risk management for better CSR effects.

Pollution of urban surface dust with hazardous elements (HEs) is a serious environmental issue due to its toxicity and potential hazardous effects. Surface dust samples were collected from core urban, urban, and suburban gradients in the Urumqi city of the arid NW China, and the concentrations of six HEs, such as arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), and chromium (Cr), were determined. The pollution load index (PLI) and the US EPA health risk assessment model were applied to analyze and compare the pollution levels and potential health risk of HEs in surface dusts in different urbanization gradients. The obtained results indicate that the average concentrations of Hg, Cd, and Ni in surface dust decrease in the order of core urban > urban > suburban, whereas the average concentrations of As, Cr, and Pb decrease in the order of urban > core urban > suburban. The PLI of HEs in surface dust decreased in the order of core urban > urban > suburban. The concentrations of HEs in the core urban and urban gradients are relatively higher than in the suburban gradient. Furthermore, the total non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk index of investigated HEs in surface dust decrease in order of urban > core urban > suburban, for both adults and children. In addition, the pollution of surface dust with HEs in all urbanization gradients is more harmful to the children's health than to the adults. Overall, the potential non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks of the investigated HEs, instigated primarily by oral ingestion of surface dust, are found to be within the acceptable range. However, urbanization can effects the accumulation of HEs in surface dust, and Cr is the main non-carcinogenic risk factor, whereas Cd is the main carcinogenic risk factor among the analyzed HEs in surface dust in all urbanization gradients.

Background and Objectives: Since the beginning of COVID-19 pandemic, the infection primarily affected patients with following chronic conditions: cardiovascular disease, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, obesity and cancer. The aim of this study was to explore clinical and epidemiological characteristics associated with COVID-19 outcomes in patients at the primary health care centre from March 2020 to September 2022. Materials and Methods: The study included 40,692 citizens of Banja Luka County, Bosnia and Herzegovina, who were confirmed and registered as RT-PCR positive on COVID-19. Differences regarding the distributions of patients between groups were analysed using Pearson chi square test and Mantel-Haenszel chi square test for trends, while differences in mean values were compared using independent samples t test. Relationship between mortality and independent variables were examined using logistic regression. Results: Out of 40,692 COVID-19 positive patients, 7.76% were hospitalized. The average age of hospitalized patients was significantly higher than the age of non-hospitalized patients (64.2±16.1 vs. 45.4±18.7; p&lt;0.001). The average age of patients with lethal outcome was nearly twice higher compared to patients with non-lethal outcome (74.6±11.5 vs. 45.7±18.6; p&lt;0.001). Male patients had higher hospitalization and mortality rate, compared to females (9.8% vs. 5.9%, p&lt;0.001; 4.8% vs. 3%, p&lt;0.001, respectively). The highest hospitalization rate was in patients with chronic renal failure, diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, while the death rate was the highest among patients with CRF and hearth comorbidities. Fever, cough, fatigue, nausea and vomiting, chest pain, shortness of breath and appetite loss favoured hospitalization. Patients with fatigue and appetite loss had higher percentage of lethal outcome. Vaccinated patients had significantly lower rate of lethal outcome. Conclusions: Clinical symptoms, signs and outcomes, are posing as predictive parameters for further management of COVID-19. Vaccination has an important role in clinical outcomes of COVID-19.

Owners and managers of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have changed their perspective on risk management due to the current global negative threats in the business environment. If they want to be successful and ensure the financial performance of their business, they must accept a proactive approach to reducing strategic risks in connection with operational risks. The aim of the article is to identify and quantify the differences in operational risk management and its effect on the financial management of SMEs between four Central European countries. The statistical sample of SMEs consisted of 1,090 owners and top managers. Data collection was carried out through a questionnaire in the period December 2022-January 2023. Statistical hypotheses were evaluated with the application of correlation analysis and linear regression modelling. Empirical findings have confirmed that operational risk management has a significant positive impact on improving the profitability of the enterprise; on reducing the enterprise's indebtedness as well as in the context of reducing the enterprise's inability to pay its obligations. However, there are disparities in the perception of this influence between owners/managers with regard to the country in which they carry out their business activities. The findings are important for both national and multinational organizations and entities dealing with risk management in the business environment of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Chronic diseases affect a disproportionate number of United States (U.S.) Veterans, causing significant long-term health issues and affecting entitlement spending. This longitudinal study examined the health status of U.S. Veterans as compared to non-Veterans pre- and post-COVID utilizing the annual Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey data. Age-adjusted descriptive point estimates were generated independently for 2003 through 2021, while complex weighted panel data were generated from 2011 and onward. General linear modeling revealed that the average U.S. Veteran reports a higher prevalence of disease conditions except for mental health disorders when compared to the non-Veteran. These findings were consistent with both pre- and post-COVID, however, both groups reported a higher prevalence of mental health issues during the pandemic years. The findings suggest that there have been no improvements in reducing Veteran comorbidities to non-Veteran levels and that COVID adversely affected the mental health of both populations.

This study probes the probabilistic features of major fire hazards in enclosed spaces to establish their importance to the occurrence of fires onboard ro-ro passenger ships and in turn to raise effective operational countermeasures. Distinct from the previous studies, the present research employs Bayesian Network (BN) analysis to determine the probabilities of fire hazards more effectively. The findings of the research include five critical basic events (BE) identified namely, vehicle engine fire (fuel system fault), vehicle electric fire (electrical equipment defect or short circuit), used car electrical fire, reefer units electrical fire (electrical appliances defects or short circuit), and cargo spontaneous combustion. Additionally, the risk of fire for lithium - ion battery powered vehicles is also highlighted in the process of BN analysis, which prompts the authors to propose preventive measures for mitigating the possibility of fire occurrence on this type of electric vehicles. It is hoped that these measures can be essential justifications for establishing relevant rules regarding carrying LIB vehicles in enclosed spaces on international level.

Epithelioid hemangioendothelioma (EHE) is an extremely rare vascular sarcoma with variable aggressive clinical behavior. In this retrospective study we aimed to investigate prognostic factors based on clinicopathologic findings in a molecular/immunohistochemical confirmed nationwide multicenter cohort of 57 EHE. Patients had unifocal disease (n=29), multifocal disease (n=5), lymph node metastasis (n=8) and/or distant metastasis (n=15) at the time of diagnosis. The overall survival rate was 69.6% at 1 year and 50.5% at 5 years. Survival did not correlate with sex, age or histo-pathological parameters. No survival differences were observed between multifocal and metastatic disease suggesting that multifocality represents early metastases and treatment options are limited in comparison to unifocal disease. In unifocal tumors, survival could be predicted using the risk stratification model of Shibayama et al. dividing the cases into low (n=4), intermediate (n=15) and high (n=3) risk-groups. Larger tumor size (>3cm) and higher mitotic count (>1/10HPF) was asso-ciated with progressive unifocal disease course. Lymph node metastases at time of diagnosis oc-curred in 14.0% of the cases and was mainly associated with tumor localization in the head and neck area proposing lymph node dissection. In conclusion, our results demonstrate the aggressive behavior of EHE, emphasize the prognostic value of a previous described risk stratification model and may provide new insights regarding tumor focality, therapeutic strategies and prognosis.

The sinking of cavities in urban areas is a very important geological risk to which many towns in Puglia are exposed. The study, mapping, geological and speleological description, classification and cataloging of forms and types of cavities is of fundamental importance for each urban center because it is linked to past local anthropic and natural processes, unique to each site. All this could lead to an enhancement of existing underground cavities in urban areas through conservation and continuous monitoring. Unfortunately in many cases these underground cavities have been used as landfills and subsequently abandoned. One of these cavities at the end of March 2007 collapsed in the inhabited center of Gallipoli causing damage to the structures and fortunately not to human lives. In the area relating to the collapsed cavity, a series of geophysical investigations were undertaken with the use of ground penetrating radar methodology in an attempt to delimit the area of collapse and understand the possible types of interventions for restoring the area. In the same area the measures were repeated 16 years later (December 2022) due to another collapse. The results show a much more widespread danger situation.

We present a hierarchical reinforcement learning (RL) architecture that employs various low-level agents to act in the trading environment, i.e. the market. The highest level agent selects among a group of specialised agents, and then the selected agent decides when to sell or buy a single asset for some period. This period can be variable according to a termination function. We hypothesized that due to different market regimes, more than one single agent is needed when trying to learn from such heterogeneous data, and instead, multiple agents will perform better, with each one specialising in a subset of the data. We use $k-means$ clustering to partition the data and train each agent with a different cluster. Partitioning the input data also helps model-based RL (MBRL), where models can be heterogeneous. We also add two simple decision-making models to the set of low-level agents, diversifying the pool of available agents and thus increasing overall behaviour flexibility. We perform multiple experiments showing the strengths of a hierarchical approach and test various prediction models at both levels. We also use a risk-based reward at the high level, which transforms the overall problem into a risk-return optimization. This type of reward shows a significant reduction in risk while minimally reducing profits. Overall, the hierarchical approach shows significant promise, especially when the pool of low-level agents is highly diverse.

Temporomandibular joint disorders (TMD) are characterized by their multifactorial etiology and pathogenesis. A 3-year prospective study was conducted in a Portuguese TMD department to study the prevalence of different TMD signs and symptoms and their association with risk factors and comorbidities. Five hundred ninety-five patients were included using an online database: EUROTMJ. Most patients were female (80.50 %), with a mean age of 38.20±15.73 years. The main complaints were temporomandibular joint (TMJ) clicking (13.26%), pain (12.49%), and masticatory muscle tension (12.15%). The main clinical findings were myalgia (74%), TMJ clicking (60-62%) and arthralgia (31-36%). Risk factors such as clenching (60%) and bruxism (30%) were positively associated with TMJ pain and myalgia. Orthodontic treatment (20%) and wisdom tooth removal (19%) were positively associated with TMJ clicking, while jaw trauma (6%) tracheal intubation (4%) and orthognathic surgery (1%) were positively associated with TMJ crepitus, limited man-dibular range of motion and TMJ pain, respectively. 42.88% of TMD patients had other associated chronic diseases, most of them were mental behavioral or neurodevelopmental disorders (33.76%), namely, anxiety (20%) and depression (13%). The authors also observed a positively association of mental disorders with the degree of TMJ pain and myalgia. Online database seems to be a relevant scientific instrument for healthcare providers who treat TMD. The authors expect that EUROTMJ database can serve as a milestone for other TMD departments.

The pathophysiology of bipolar disorder (BD) remains mostly unclear. Yet, a valid biomarker is necessary to improve early detection of this serious disorder. Patients with manifest BD display reduced volumes of the hippocampal subfields and amygdala nuclei. In this pre-registered analysis, we used structural MRI (N=271, 7 sites), to compare volumes of hippocampus, amygdala, and their subfields/nuclei between help-seeking subjects divided in risk groups for BD as estimated by BPSS-P, BARS and EPIbipolar. We performed between-group comparisons using linear mixed effects models for all three risk assessment tools. Additionally, we aimed to differentiate the risk groups using linear support vector machine. We found no significant volume differences between the risk groups for all limbic structures during the main analysis. However, the SVM could still classify subjects at risk according to BPSS-P criteria with a balanced accuracy of 66.90% (95% CI 59.2– 74.6) for 10-fold cross-validation and 61.9% (95% CI 52.0– 71.9) for leave-one-site-out. Structural altera-tions of hippocampus and amygdala may not be as pronounced in young people at risk, nonetheless, ma-chine learning can predict estimated risk for BD above chance. This suggests that neural changes may not merely be a consequence of BD and may have prognostic clinical value.

According to the Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID, 2022), the number of displaced people worldwide at the end of 2021 was 59.1 million, with 53.2 million of them being the result of conflicts and violence, and 5.9 million caused by climate-related disasters. Furthermore, the In-ternational Organization for Migration (IOM) predicts that the climate crisis will be solely re-sponsible for one billion migrants by 2050. In this context, the research examines the issue of coastal multi-risk arising from a combination of heavy rainfall, river's overflow, and sea-level rise phenomena, analysing it through the disciplinary perspective of urban planning. Specifically, the study focuses on the need to upgrade the Local Urban Plan from a climate-proof perspective by defining a method aimed at updating the territory's cognitive framework through the preparation of a multi-risk map (which considers different time horizons), as well as the prescriptive apparatus of the Plan through the definition of a toolkit of site-specific design actions oriented towards urban adaptation. The proposed methodology is verified on the case study of Isola Sacra, Fiumicino (Italy), and it is intended to be applicable to other territorial contexts. The research aims to outline guidelines for updating urban planning tools from a climate-proof perspective to promote long-term resilient urban development in risk-prone areas.

Aortic dissection (AD) is a critical heart condition with potentially severe outcomes. Our study aims to investigate the existence of a "weekend effect" in AD by examining the correlation between patient outcomes and the timing of their treatment during weekdays vs weekends. Specifically, we assessed prospectively the effects of the timing of treatment on patient outcomes for acute aortic dissection, both before surgical intervention and during hospitalization, as well as during the follow-up period. The mean age of the study population used here was 62.5 years with a high degree of variability. We recorded a rate of mortality before surgery of 8.65% for the weekend group and 15% for the weekday group, with no significant differences noted in the results of statistical tests. During hospitalization, mortality was found to be 50% (n=52) in the weekend group and 25% (n=5) in the weekday group, again with no significant differences observed in the results of the same statistical tests. Patient mortality after discharge was 9.61% (n=10) in the weekend group and 5% (n=1) in the weekday group. Our findings suggest that there is no significant difference in mortality rates between patients admitted to the hospital on weekends versus weekdays. Therefore, the period of the week when a patient presents to the hospital with aortic dissection appears to not affect their mortality outcomes.

Employing data supplied by the Oxford-based UK Childhood Cancer Research Group in 2003 it is shown that after the Chernobyl accident, childhood leukemia by single age and year of birth in the 0-4y cohort increased significantly in Wales and Scotland combined in the period 1986-1990 compared with controls born 1970-1985 and 1991-1994. Relative risk RR = 1.41; 95% CI 1.20<RR<1.65; p = 0.00004. These exposure periods were chosen because whole body Caesium-137 monitoring had demonstrated that internal exposures persisted for more than 4 years. The dose-response exhibits saturation and reversal, interpreted as biological censoring effects in the developing individual.

The long-term laboratory aspects of the effects of COVID-19 on liver function are still not well understood. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the hepatic clinical-laboratory profile of patients with up to 20 months of long-term COVID-19. A total of 243 patients of both sexes aged 18 years or older hospitalised in the acute phase of COVID-19 were included in this study. Liver function analysis was performed. Changes were identified in the mean levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), and ferritin. Inflammatory markers such as ferritin > 300 U/L were observed in the group that presented more changes in liver function markers (ALT, AST, and GGT). Age ≥ 60 years, male sex, AST > 25 U/L, and GGT ≥ 50 or 32 U/L were associated with ALT > 29 U/L. There was a correlation between ALT and AST, LDH, GGT, and ferritin. Our findings suggest that ALT and AST levels may be elevated in patients with long-term COVID, especially in those hospitalised in the acute phase. In addition, ALT > 29 U/L was associated with other markers of liver injury, such as LDH, GGT, and ferritin.

Previous literature highlights the impact of COVID-19 on family functioning. Less is known about the impact of the pandemic on families of pediatric cancer patients. In order to determine universal and unique risk and resilience factors of these families during the pandemic, a qualitative analysis was conducted on families currently receiving cancer treatment at a midwestern hospital. Results of the data analysis depict ways in which these families have been impacted by and have adapted to COVID-19. These findings suggest that families of pediatric cancer patients have unique experiences in the context of COVID-19, in addition to universal experiences outlined in previous literature.

Ovarian cancers are curable by surgical resection when discovered early enough. Unfortunately, most ovarian cancers are diagnosed in the later stages. One strategy to identify early ovarian tumors is to screen women who have the highest risk scores. This mini review summarizes the accuracy of different methods used to assess the risk of developing ovarian cancer, including family history, BRCA genetic tests, and polygenic risk scores. The accuracy of these is compared to the maximum theoretical accuracy, revealing a substantial gap. We suggest that this gap, or missing heritability, could be caused by epistatic interactions between genes. An alternative approach to computing genetic risk scores, using chromosomal-scale length variation should incorporate epistatic interactions. Future research in this area should focus on this and other alternative methods of characterizing genomes.

Oral health surveys are essential to assess the dental caries experience and to influence national policies. This retrospective cross-sectional study aims to analysis dental caries experience who sought dental treatment in a reference university dental hospital at the Lisbon Metropolitan Area between January 2016 and March 2020. Full-mouth examination, sociodemographic, behaviors and medical information were included. Descriptive analyses and logistic regression analysis were applied to ascertain risk indicators associated with dental caries experience. A final sample of 9,349 participants (5,592 females/3,757 males) were included, aged 18 to 99 years old. In this population, caries experience was 91.1%, higher in female participants. Age (OR= 1.01, 95% CI [1.00-1.02], occupation (OR= 2.94, 95% CI [2.37-3.65], OR= 3.35, 95% CI [2.40-4.67], OR= 2.55, 95% CI [1.66-3.91], for employed, unemployed and retired, respectively), overweight (OR= 1.52, 95% CI [1.18-1.96]), reporting to never visited a dentist (OR= 0.38, 95% CI [0.23-0.64] and self-reported week teeth status (OR= 2.14, 95% CI [1.40-3.28]) were identified as risk indicators for the presence of dental caries, according to adjusted multivariable logistic analyses. These results highlight a substantial rate of dental experience in a Portuguese cohort and will pave the way for future tailored oral public health programs in Portugal.

Diabetes mellitus is a popular life-threatening disease and patients may gradually have started suffering from other diabetes-causing diseases such as heart attacks, stroke, hypertension, blurry vision, blindness, foot ulcer, amputation, kidney damage and other organ failures before diagnosis. Early detection can help reduce the fatality of this disease. Deep learning models have proven very useful in disease detection and computer-aided diagnosis. In this work, we proposed a deep unsupervised machine learning model for early detection of diabetes using voting ensemble feature selection and deep belief neural networks (DBN). Dataset was obtained from an online repository containing responses of prediagnosed patients to direct questionnaires administered in Sylhet Diabetes Hospital in Sylhet, Bangladesh. The dataset was preprocessed and preprocessed. Features were reduced using the ensemble feature selector. The DBN model was pretrained and tuned to obtain optimal performance. The model was also compared with other models with no multiple hidden layers. The DBN performed at its relative best with F1-measure, precision and recall of 1.00, 0.92 and 1.00 respectively. We conclude that DBN is a useful tool for an unsupervised early prediction of Type II diabetes mellitus.

The perception in pair trading is to recognize two stocks that move together, and their prices will converge to a mean value in future. However, finding the mean-reverted point at which the value of the pair will converge, and optimal boundaries of the trade is not easy. As uncertainty and model misspecifications may lead to losses. To cater for the problems, this study employs the novel entropic approach that utilizes entropy as penalty function for the misspecification of the model. The use of entropy as a measure of risk in pair trading is a nascent idea and this study utilizes daily data for 64 companies listed on PSX for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively to compute the returns based on the entropic approach. These companies cover the major sectors including Cement, Chemical, Automobile Assembler, Food and Personal Care Products, Oil and Gas Marketing Companies, Oil and Gas Exploration Companies Ltd, Power Generation and Distribution, Refinery and Pharmaceuticals. The returns to these stocks are then evaluated and compared with the Buy and Hold strategy. The results show positive and significant returns from pair trading using an entropic approach.

Antibiotic resistance is a pressing global and planetary health challenge. Links between climate change, antibiotic use and the emergence of antibiotic resistance have been well documented, but less attention has been given to the impact(s) of earth systems on specific bacterial livestock diseases at a more granular level. Understanding the precise impacts of climate change on livestock health – and in turn the use of antibiotics to address that ill-health – is important in providing an evidence base to tackle such impacts and to develop practical, implementable and locally acceptable solutions within and beyond current antibiotic stewardship programmes. In this paper, we set out the case for better integration of earth scientists and their specific disciplinary skill set (specifically, problem-solving with incomplete/fragmentary data; the ability to work across four dimensions and at the interface between the present and deep/geological time) into planetary health research. We then discuss a methodology that makes use of risk mapping, a common methodology in earth science but less frequently used in health science, to map disease risk against changing climatic conditions at a granular level. This will enable predictions of future disease risk and risk impacts based on predicted future climate conditions, and thus provide an evidence base for planetary health activists to influence policy and develop mitigations. Our case study – of climate conditions’ impact on livestock health in Karnataka, India – clearly evidences the benefit of integrating earth scientists into planetary health research.

Introduction: This study explores exposure to misinformation, COVID-19 risk perception, and confidence towards the government as predictors to negative attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was carried out from 30 June to 30 August 2021 involving 775 respondents. The survey instrument for the questionnaire is an adaptation from various different studies consisting of five main variables: 1) misinformation about vaccination; 2) risk perception toward COVID-19; 3) attitudes toward the vaccination programme; 4) intention to get vaccinated; and 5) public confidence in the government in executing the vaccination programme. Results: The results of this study indicate that higher exposure to misinformation led to higher levels of negative attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine. When the perceived risk of COVID-19 infection was high, mistrust of vaccine benefits was low but there were also higher worries about the future effects of the vaccine. Confidence in government was associated with lower negative attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine. Conclusion: The results of this study may help develop an understanding of negative attitudes toward vaccinations in Malaysia and its contributing factors.

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a common complication of pregnancy that adversely affects maternal and offspring health. A variety of risk factors, such as BMI and age, have been associated with increased risks of gestational diabetes. However, in many cases gestational diabetes occurs in healthy nulliparous women with no obvious risk factors. Emerging data suggest that the tendency to develop gestational diabetes has genetic and environmental components. Here we develop a polygenic risk score for gestational diabetes. We further investigate relationships between the genetic architecture of GDM and genetically constructed risk factors and biomarkers. Our results show that genetics can be used as an early screening tool that identifies at-risk at higher risk of GDM before its onset to propose comprehensive monitoring and preventative programs to mitigate the risks.

Abstract Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing played an important role in analyzing environmental and socio-economic drivers that created favorable condition for malaria breeding as well as in identifying hazard and risk areas. This study gives great emphasis on mapping malaria hazard and risk areas in Gedio zone of SNNPs using geospatial technology. The study identifies two major drivers like Environmental (physical) factors: which provide for the endurance of mosquitoes and Socio-economic factors. The above data were presented and analyzed quantitatively. The content analysis shows that Malaria hazard prevalence areas were mapped based on the environmental factors which are potential of providing good environmental conditions for mosquito breeding. The hazard map was produced using elevation, slope, proximity to breeding sites, and soil type as the factors for breeding mosquitoes. The malaria hazard analysis of the Gedio zone revealed that from the total area, 9.83%, 35.29% is mapped as a very high and high-risk area, whereas, the remaining 38.73%, a 16.14%, and 0.01% were mapped as moderate, low, very low level of malaria hazard respectively. The total area of the study area more than 1/3rd of the area is identified as a very high and high malaria risk area while the rest 2/3rd of an area is considered as a moderate to very low hazard risk zone. Accordingly, very high malaria risk area is found around towns because of population density. Finally, I recommend that the concerned body should have to expand health center, creating awareness of society, especially around populated areas where the risk is high and environmental and individual sanitation can reduce the risk of malaria.

Risk management of electric power transmission lines requires knowledge from different areas such as environment, land, investors, regulations, and engineering. Despite the widespread availability of databases for most of those areas, integrating them into a single database or model is a challenging problem. Instead, in this paper, we use a single source, the Brazilian National Electric Energy Agency’s (ANEEL) weekly reports, which contains decisions about the electrical grid, comprising most of the areas. Since the data is unstructured (text), we employed NLP techniques such as stemming and tokenization to identify keywords related to common causes of risks provided by an expert group on energy transmission. Then, we used models to estimate the probability of each risk. Our results show that we were able to estimate the probability of 97 risks out of 233.

Urban flood risk mapping is an important tool for the mitigation of flooding in view of human activities and climate change. Many developing countries, however, lack sufficiently detailed data to produce reliable risk maps with existing methods. Thus, improved methods are needed that can improve urban flood risk management in regions with scarce hydrological data. Given this, we estimated the flood risk map for Rasht City (Iran), applying a composition of decision-making and machine learning methods. Flood hazard maps were produced applying six state-of-the-art machine learning methods such as classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), boosted regression trees (BRT), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), and support vector machine (SVM). Flood conditioning parameters applied in modeling were elevation, slope angle, aspect, rainfall, distance to river (DTR), distance to streets (DTS), soil hydrological group (SHG), curve number (CN), distance to urban drainage (DTUD), urban drainage density (UDD), and land use. In total, 93 flood location points were collected from the regional water company of Gilan province combined with field surveys. We used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) decision-making tool for creating an urban flood vulnerability map, which is according to population density (PD), dwelling quality (DQ), household income (HI), distance to cultural heritage (DTCH), distance to medical centers and hospitals (DTMCH), and land use. Then, the urban flood risk map was derived according to flood vulnerability and flood hazard maps. Evaluation of models was performed using receiver-operator characteristic curve (ROC), accuracy, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and precision. The findings showed that the CART method is most accurate method (AUC = 0.947, accuracy = 0.892, POD = 0.867, FAR = 0.071, and precision = 0.929). The results also demonstrated that DTR, UDD, and DTUD played important roles in flood hazard modeling; whereas, the population density was the most significant parameter in vulnerability mapping. These findings indicated that machine learning methods can improve urban flood risk management significantly in regions with limited hydrological data.

Obesity has become a rising global health problem affecting adults’ quality of life. The objective of this study was to describe the prevalence of obesity in Indonesian adults based on the cluster of islands. The study was also aimed to identify the risk factors of obesity in each island cluster. This study analysed secondary data of Indonesian Basic Health Research 2018. Our data for analysis comprised 688,638 adults (>=15 years) randomly selected using proportionate to population size throughout Indonesia. We included 20 variables for sociodemographic and obesity-related risk factors for analysis. Obese status was defined using Body Mass Index (BMI) >= 27.5 kg/m2. Our current study defined seven major islands cluster as the unit analysis consisting of 34 provinces in Indonesia. Descriptive analysis was conducted to determine the characteristics of the population and to calculate the prevalence of obesity within provinces in each of the island’s clusters. Multivariate logistic regression analyses to calculate odds ratios (ORs) was performed using R version 3.6.3. The study results showed that all island clusters had at least one province with an obesity prevalence of more than 20%. Six out of twenty variables, comprising four diet factors (consumption of sweet food, high-salt food, meat food, and carbonated drinks) and two other factors (mental health disorders and smoking behaviour), varied across the island clusters. In conclusion, there was a variation of obesity prevalence of the provinces within and between island clusters. Variation of risk factors raised in each cluster island suggested the government rethink and reframe the intervention to address obesity.

Combination treatment, i.e., the use of two or more drugs for the same condition, is frequent in medicine if monotherapy yields an insufficient therapeutic response. We here review and challenge clinical study designs and formats of reporting outcomes for the evaluation of the benefit/risk ratio of combination treatment over monotherapy. We demonstrate that benefits of combination treatment at the group level over-estimate the probability of benefit at the single patient level based on outcome simulations under almost any imaginable setting. Based on these findings we propose that studies testing combination treatment should always report on percentages of responders to monotherapy and combination treatment. We provide equations that allow calculation of the percentage of patients truly benefitting from combination (responders to both monotherapies) and that of patients exposed to risk of harm from adverse effects without a reasonable expectation of individual benefit. These considerations are explained based on real clinical data, mostly from the field of functional urology (male lower urinary tract symptoms).

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the association between television viewing/physical activity (TVV/PA) interactions and cardiometabolic risk in an adult European population. A total of 2,155 subjects (25-64 years) (45.2% males), a random population-based sample were evaluated in Brno, Czechia. TVV was classified as low (&lt;2hours/day), moderate (2-4), and high (≥4). PA was classified as insufficient, moderate, and high. To assess the independent association of TVV/PA categories with cardiometabolic variables, multiple linear regression was used. After adjustments, significant associations were: high TVV/insufficient PA with body mass index (BMI) (β=2.61,SE=0.63), waist circumference (WC) (β=7.52,SE=1.58), body fat percent (%BF) (β=6.24,SE=1.02), glucose (β=0.25,SE=0.12), triglycerides (β=0.18,SE=0.05), and HDL-C (β=-0.10,SE=0.04); high TVV/moderate PA with BMI (β=1.98,SE=0.45), WC (β=5.43,SE=1.12), %BF (β =5.15,SE=0.72), triglycerides (β =0.08,SE=0.04), total cholesterol (β=0.21,SE=0.10), LDL-c (β=0.19,SE=0.08), and HDL-c (β=-0.07,SE=0.03); and moderate TVV/insufficient PA with WC (β=2.68,SE=1.25), %BF (β=3.80,SE=0.81), LDL-c (β=0.18,SE=0.09), and HDL-c (β=-0.07,SE=0.03). Independent of PA levels, higher TVV was associated with higher amounts of adipose tissue. Higher blood glucose and triglycerides were present in subjects with high TVV and insufficient PA, but not in those with high PA alone. These results affirm the independent cardiometabolic risk of sedentary routines even in subjects with high-levels of PA.

Abstract – Objective: Ovarian cancer, although not possessing a high incidence, is still the most common cancer-related deaths among women diagnosed with a gynecologic malignancy. The present study aims to highlight the epidemiology, risk factors of this disease and the significance of development of improved early detection strategies. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted using current published English studies by searching PubMed and Google Scholar. The search strategy included the keywords “ovarian cancer”, “diagnosis”, “risk factors”, “screening”, “epidemiology”. Studies on incidence and mortality were also considered. Case reports were excluded.Results: The highest incidence and mortality rates are observed in Central and Eastern Europe, while rates are relatively low in Asia and Africa. These rates are highest among the white population (14.3 per 100,000) and lowest among blacks (10 per 100,000) and Asians (9.7 per 100,000). The risk factors for this disease includes a family history, hormonal factors, nutrition and diet and physical activity, with some of them playing protective roles in reducing risk of ovarian cancers. There are no reliable screening methods for ovarian cancers. The most common diagnosis methods include a transvaginal ultrasound and a blood test to detect CA125 markers.Conclusions: The mortality rate of ovarian cancer is gradually increasing; thus, preventative measures are required to reduce lifetime risk of ovarian cancers and improve mortality rate.

The perceived risk of being infected at work (PRIW) with COVID-19 represents a potential risk factor for workers during the current COVID-19 pandemic. In line with the job demands-resources (JD-R) model applied to safety at work, in this longitudinal study we propose that PRIW can be conceptualized as a job demand, whereas communication (i.e., the exchange of good-quality information across team members) can be conceived as a job resource. Accordingly, we hypothesized that PRIW at Time 1 (T1) would positively predict psychophysical strain at Time 2 (i.e., four months later). Furthermore, we hypothesized that communication at T1 would negatively predict psychophysical strain at T2. Overall, 297 workers took part in the study. The hypothesized relationships were tested using multiple regression analysis. Results supported our predictions: PRIW positively predicted psychophysical strain over time, whereas communication negatively predicted psychophysical strain over time. Also, results did not change after controlling for age, gender, and type of contract. Overall, this study suggests that PRIW and communication can be considered as a risk and a protective factor for work-related stress, respectively. Hence, to promote more sustainable working conditions, interventions should encourage organizations to optimize the balance between job demands and job resources related to COVID-19.

This study is the first to examine whether the performance of credit rating, one of the most important data-based decision-making of banks, can be improved by using banking system log data that is extensively accumulated inside the bank for system operation. This study uses the log data recorded for the mobile app system of Kakaobank, a leading internet bank used by more than 14 million people in Korea. After generating candidate variables from Kakaobank's vast log data, we develop a credit scoring model by utilizing variables with high information values. Consequently, the discrimination power of the new model compared to the credit bureau grades was significantly improved by 1.84% points based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics. Therefore, the results of this study imply that if a bank utilizes its log data that have already been extensively accumulated inside the bank, decision-making systems, including credit scoring, can be efficiently improved at a low cost.

(1) Background: Cameron County, which is located in the Rio Grande Valley, holds historical records for storm surges with noticeable property damage, fatalities, and injuries; (2) Methods: using storm surge hazard datasets from the National Oceanic and Atlantic Agency (NOAA), and American Community Survey (ACS) 2019 datasets and Geographic Information System (GIS), the study estimates at-risk population and their socio-demographic attributes; (4) Conclusions: Estimated water levels of a storm surge could be reached up to 5 feet in category 1 event, 9 feet in category 2, 17 feet in category 3, and above 20 feet in category 4 and 5. In the category 5 event, there is an estimated 37% (159,659) of the total county’s population (434,294) will be under flooded water. Suggestions are made to better prepare and successfully evaluate.

This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the predictive model of citizens' attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the Republic of Serbia legal system. The research was conducted with the use of a questionnaire that was requested and then collected online from 427 people in June 2021. A multivariate regression analysis was used, identifying the extent to total scores of the main dependent variables (introducing the death penalty; trust in the legal system; advantages of introduction; disadvantages of introduction scores) were associated with five demographic and socio-economic variables: gender, marital, education, income, and age. We tested the central hypothesis of which gender is predicting variables citizens' attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the legal system of Serbia. The findings revealed that gender and educational level were the most effective predictors of the research variables under question. The majority of respondents support the introduction of the death penalty and the most important predictor of disadvantages of introducing the death penalty in the legal system is age. Based on the findings that there are major differences in the citizens' attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the legal system, policies, strategies, and regulations must take into account these very important findings.

Several treatment guidelines for sporadic, nonmetastatic nonfunctioning neuroendocrine tumors of the pancreas (NF-pNETs) have recommended resection, however, tumors ≤ 2 cm do not necessarily need surgery. This study aimed to establish a surgical treatment plan for NF-pNETs ≤ 2 cm. From 2000 to 2017, 483 patients who underwent resection for NF-pNETs ≤ 2cm in 18 institutions from Korea and China were enrolled and their medical records were reviewed. Median age was 56 (range 16- 80) years. The 10-year overall survival rate (10Y-OS) and recurrence-free survival rate (10Y-RFS) were 89.8 and 93.1%, respectively. In multivariable analysis, tumor size (> 1.5cm; p = 0.001) and nodal metastasis (p = 0.013) were independent adverse prognostic factors for OS. Perineural invasion (p = 0.008) and high Ki-67 index (≥3%; p < 0.001) were independent prognostic factors for poor RFS. NF-pNETs ≤ 2 cm showed unfavorable prognosis after resection when the tumor was larger than 1.5cm, Ki-67 index ≥ 3%, or nodal metastasis was present. NF-pNET patients with tumors ≤ 1.5cm can be observed if the preoperative Ki-67 index is under 3%, and if nodal metastasis is not suspected in preoperative radiologic studies. These findings support the clinical use to make decision about small NF-pNETs.

Past exploration for U deposit in the Philippines discovered the mineralization of radioactive allanite in Palawan. The allanite occurs as sand component in the heavily populated beach of Erawan, San Vicente, Palawan. This work assessed the risks associated with the radionuclides in Erawan beach by in situ ground radiometric survey of K, U, and Th in 694 sampling points. Principal component analysis (PCA) and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to determine the similarity between the radionuclides and to identify other probable anthropogenic sources of radionuclides. Our results show that the mean activity concentrations of K (597.8 Bq kg^-1) and Th (93.15 Bq kg^-1) are equivalent to 1.5 and 3.1 times of the world average natural radioactivity levels in soil, respectively, while the mean U (34.7 Bq kg^-1) is similar to the world average. The mean radiological risk assessments like radium equivalent, gamma specific activity index, external hazard index, internal hazard index, absorbed gamma dose rate, annual effective dose equivalent, annual gonadal equivalent dose, and excess lifetime cancer risk are 213.96 Bq kg^-1, 0.78, 0.58, 0.67, 97.24 nGy h^-1, 119.25 µSv y^-1, 684.39 µSv y^-1, and 0.42 (10^-3), respectively. Th consistently correlated most to the risks. We attribute the occurrence of Th to the presence of allanite, K to fertilizer use for farming, and U to both the allanite and farming. The results of our study can provide important baseline data for future detailed studies or monitoring of the long-term effects of elevated radiation levels to the local population of Erawan.

The use of multi-gene panels for germline testing in breast cancer enables the estimation of cancer risk and guides risk-reducing management options for tested individuals and their family members. We performed an analysis in our clinical database to identify breast cancer patients undergoing genetic testing with positive reports. We reviewed positive results with respect to the different levels of information provided in the reports; risk estimation and management, cascade family testing, information from secondary findings and actionable information for treatment decision-making. A total of 415 positive test reports were identified with 57.1%, 18.1%, 10.8% and 13.5% of individuals having pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants in high (BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, PTEN, TP53), moderate (ATM, CHEK2, NBN), low (BARD1, BRIP1, CHEK2, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, NF1, RAD51C) and with insufficient evidence for breast cancer risk genes (FANCA, FANCM, NBN, MRE11, PMS2, RAD50, RAD51B, XRCC2, MUTYH), respectively. 6.7% of individuals were double heterozygotes with two pathogenic variants. Germline findings in 92% of individuals are linked to evidence-based treatment information and receive risk estimates for predisposition to breast and/or other cancer types. The use of germline findings for treatment decision making expands the indication of genetic testing to include individuals that could benefit from targeted treatments.

Due to the high effectiveness of cancer screening and therapies, the diagnosis of second primary cancers (SPCs) has increased in women with endometrial cancer (EC). However, there’s no previous literature mentioned about adequate evidence to support screening for SPCs in endometrial cancer. This study was aimed to develop effective risk prediction models of second primary endometrial cancer in women with obesity (Body-mass index; BMI > 25) and this study includes datasets of the incidence of SPCs and the other risks of SPCs in 4480 primary cancer survivors by a hospital-based cancer registry database. In our study, we found the obesity played a key role in SPCs. There’re 10 independent variables used as predicting variables, which corelated to obesity should be monitored for the early detection of SPCs in endometrial cancer. In conclusion, it is a promising SPCs prediction. The proposed scheme can support the important influence of obesity and clinical data representations in all cases after primary treatments. Our results suggested that obesity is still a crucial risk factor to SPCs in endometrial cancer.

In this study, we described the most critical risk factors for different malignancies including: breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal carcinoma among others, with an emphasis on modifiable risk factors. We revised the literature review about risk factors involved in the genesis of cancer in various databases, including articles indexed in PUBMED, SCOPUS, PMC, and Google Scholar. Awareness of risk factors enables conscious decisions to be made in an effort to combat malignancies. Knowing risk factors is a mode of fighting malignancy. Diet, lifestyle, practises, and laboratory/clinical interventions were among risk factors of diverse malignancy. Diet, lifestyle, laboratory/clinical interventions all contribute to the genesis and prognosis in a variety of malignancies. We concluded that abstaining from risk factors can prevent the development of many malignancies in a century where this conundrum is raising disproportionately. By informing the public about modifiable risk factors cancer mortality rates can be reduced. It is treated here is to make the public aware of the modifiable risks of cancers.

Fire risk can be defined as the probability that a fire will spread. Reliable monitoring of fire risk is essential for effective landscape management. Compilation of fire risk records enable identification of seasonal and inter-annual patterns and provide a baseline to evaluate the trajectories in response to climate change. Typically, fire risk is estimated from meteorological data. In regions with sparse meteorological station coverage environmental proxies provide important additional data stream for estimating past and current fire risk. Here we use a 60-year record of daily flows from two rivers (Franklin and Davey) in the remote Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) to characterize seasonal patterns in fire risk in temperate Eucalyptus and rainforests. We show that river flows are strongly related to landscape soil moisture estimates derived from down-scaled re-analysis of meteorological data available since 1990. To identify river flow thresholds where forests are likely to burn, we relate river flows to known forest fires that have occurred in the previously defined ecohydrological domains that surround the Franklin and Davey catchments. Our analysis shows that the fire season in the TWWHA is centered on February (70% of all years below the median threshold), with shoulders on December-January and March. Since 1954 forest fire can occur in at least one month for all but four summers in the ecohydrological domain that includes the Franklin catchment, and since 1964 fire fires could occur in at least one month in every summer in the ecohydrological domain that includes the Davey catchment. Our analysis shows that mangers can use river flows as a simple index that provide a landscape-scale forest fire risk in the TWWHA.

Objectives: A wealth of literature has established risk factors for social isolation among older people, however much of this research has focused on community-dwelling populations. Relatively little is known about how risk of social isolation is experienced among those living in long-term care (LTC) homes. We conducted a scoping review to identify possible risk factors for social isolation among older adults living in LTC homes. Methods: A systematic search of five online databases retrieved 1535 unique articles. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Results: Thematic analyses revealed that possible risk factors exist at three levels: individual (e.g., communication barriers), systems (e.g., location of LTC facility), and structural factors (e.g., discrimination). Discussion: Our review identified several risk factors for social isolation that have been previously documented in literature, in addition to several risks that may be unique to those living in LTC homes. Results highlight several scholarly and practical implications.

Understanding African swine fever virus (ASFV) transmission is essential for strategies to minimize virus spread during an outbreak. ASFV can survive for extended time periods in animal products, carcasses, and the environment. While ASFV genome was found in the environment around infected farms, data on the virus survival in soil are scarce. We investigated different soil matrices spiked with ASFV-positive blood from infected wild boar to see if ASFV can remain infectious in the soil beneath infected carcasses. As expected, ASFV genome detection was possible over the entire sampling period. Soil pH, structure, and ambient temperature played a role for the stability of infectious ASFV. Infectious ASFV was demonstrated in specimens originating from sterile sand for at least three weeks, from beach sand for up to two weeks, from yard soil for one week, and from swamp soil for three days. Virus was not recovered from two acidic forest soils. All risk mitigation experiments with citric acid or calcium hydroxide resulted in complete inactivation. In conclusion, stability of infectious ASFV is very low in acidic forest soils but rather high in sandy soils. However, given the high variability, treatment of carcass collection points with disinfectants should be considered.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by infection with the 2019 novel coronavirus 2 (2019-nCoV, now referred to as SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 has become a global pandemic since its outbreak at the end of Dec 2019. COVID-19 could lead to severe acute respiratory disease, especially to those who have reduced immunity. Binding of the viral Spike protein (S) to its receptor ACE2 (Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2) on the surface of target cells has been proven to be key for virus entry and infection. Although ACE2 expression in the respiratory system is necessary for pneumonia infection by SARS-CoV-2, the regulation of ACE2 gene expression remains poorly investigated, especially for patients that are in pre-pathological conditions. Here, by analyzing The Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, we investigated the expression regulation of ACE2 in various kinds of primary epithelial cells from the respiratory system after varies of respiratory viruses infection such as influenza A virus (IFV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human rhinovirus (hRV). Our analyses reveal that infection of multiple kinds of respiratory viruses or influenza vaccines greatly increased ACE2 expression, suggesting that respiratory viruses infection could represent a high risk factor for developing COVID-19. We also found that the regulatory effect of influenza A virus on ACE2 expression is associated with activation of the interferon beta-induced pathway and viral RNA-activated host response. Together, our data provide a theoretical framework for clinical classification for SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility and could be used for future prevention and therapy treatment for COVID-19.

Today, rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament is the most common heavy injury in athletes, but it can also occur in sedentary subjects. Its treatment, always adapted to the lifestyle, age and will of the patient, often remains surgical. However, despite its frequency and universality, there are still walking disorders following the operation. These disorders sometimes persist for several months, or even several years after surgery. The present study is therefore interested in determining the risk factors linked to walking disorders following reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament. The objective of this study is to determine what risk factors associated with walking disorders are after reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament by hamstring graft. This study focused on factors that may exist at 3 and 6 months postoperatively. Two populations participated in this study, a healthy population and a population having benefited from reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament. The operated test group is divided into two subgroups, one with a postoperative period of 3 months and the second at 6 months. All subjects were subjected to the same protocol, their gait on the treadmill was analyzed and evaluated with an Optogait® analysis system. A univariate analysis was carried out first. Then, a multivariate analysis by adjustment method was carried out in order to eliminate the potential confounding factors. The comparison of the results between the populations in the univariate analysis shows an absence of significant results however there are trends. The statistical results of the multivariate analysis showed interactions in the two subgroups of the operated population.In fact, it turns out that at 3 months there is a tendency to worse gait disorders in subjects with a high BMI reflecting overweight, when an associated surgical procedure has taken place on the meniscus, in subjects over 35 years of age and males. On the other hand, at 6 months, the tendency to worsening is visible only in the strata represented by subjects with a BMI corresponding to overweight, as well as in subjects having benefited from a meniscal suture associated with ACL reconstruction. .The results of the present study show that there are certain factors which tend to increase the risk of these walking disorders after reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament by hamstring graft, these factors are different depending on the time postoperative.

Frailty is defined as a state of increased vulnerability to stressors, and it predicts the disability and mortality in the older population. This study aimed to investigate standardized prevalence and multidimensional risk factors associated with frailty among the Korean community-dwelling older adults. We analyzed the baseline data of 2,907 adults aged 70–84 years (mean age 75.8±3.9 years, 57.8% women) in the Korean Frailty and Aging Cohort Study. The Fried frailty phenotype was used to define frailty. Analyzed data included sociodemographic, physical, physical function, biological, lifestyle, health condition, medical condition, psychological, and social domains. Data were standardized using the national standard population composition ratio based on the Korean Population and Housing Census. The standardized prevalence of frailty and pre-frailty was 7.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.8–8.9%) and 57.2% (95% CI 45.1–48.8%), respectively. The following 14 risk factors had a significant association with frailty: at risk of malnutrition, sarcopenia, severe mobility limitation, poor social capital, rural dwellers, depressive, poor self-perceived health, polypharmacy, elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, elevated glycosylated hemoglobin, low 25-hydroxy vitamin D level, longer timed up and go, and low short physical performance battery score (p<0.05). Physico-nutritional, psychological, sociodemographic, and medical factors are strongly associated with frailty.

Background:Peripheral neuropathy (PN) can result in either partial or complete loss of distal sensation resulting in an increased fall risk. Walkasins^® uses a shoe insert to detect the magnitude and direction of sway and sends signals to a leg unit that provides sensory balance cues. The objective of this case report is to describe the long-term influence of the Walkasins^® lower limb sensory neuroprosthesis on balance and gait for an individual with diabetic PN.Case Description:A fifty-one-year-old male with a 3-year history of PN and a 10-year history of type II diabetes mellitus was fitted with Walkasins^® and utilized the shoe inserts 8-10 hours/day for more than 1 year. Although, vibration and tactile thresholds were severely impaired at his 1^st metatarsophalangeal joint and the lateral malleolus bilaterally he could perceive tactile stimuli from the Walkasins^® above the ankles.Outcomes:Following Walkasins^® use, his Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC) scores improved from 33% to 80%. His mean Vestibular Activities of Daily Living (VADL) scores decreased from 3.54 to 1. His Functional Gait Assessment (FGA) scores increased from 13/30 to 28/30 and his miniBESTest scores improved from 15/28 to 26/28. Gait speed increased from 0.23 m/sec to 1.5 m/sec. The patient described a decrease in pain and cramping throughout his lower extremities and an increase in function.Discussion:Gait and balance improved with the use of the Walkasins^® and participation in the Neuro Wellness Program. This improvement suggests that the use of sensory substitution devices, such as the Walkasins^®, may replace sensory deficits related to gait and balance dysfunction experienced by patients with PN. Further research is needed to determine if other patients will have a similar response and what the necessary threshold of sensory function is to benefit from use of the Walkasins^®.

Consumption of milk contaminated with antibiotic residues above the maximum residue limit (MRL) causes direct toxicity to humans and the development of superbugs that leads to the failure of antibiotic therapy and threatens human life. Besides, long-duration exposure might alter the nature of gut microflora results in the enhancement of many diseases. Therefore, we examined 300 raw and processed packet milk samples using thin layer chromatography (TLC) and ultra high performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) method against five veterinary antibiotics and assessed the risk for consumers in Chattogram, Bangladesh. Risk analysis was calculated by using hazard quotient on the basis of 165 ml per capita milk consumption. We found a total of 7% prevalence of antibiotic residues in raw milk samples which were higher (8%) in individual samples than the pooled samples (4%). However, we did not find any processed packet milk samples as positive. The mean concentration of oxytetracycline residue was detected 61.29 µg/l and amoxicillin was 124 µg/l in individual milk samples. Risk analysis showed the hazard quotient values of 0.0056 for oxytetracycline and 0.0017 for amoxicillin residue which was confirmed that, no significant health risk associated with the consumption of milk produced and marketed in the study area. Our study might fill the gap of knowledge to measure the safety status of milk regarding public health issues.

Objectives: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the association between psoriasis and osteoporosis using two different studies. Methods: Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening Cohort of participants who were ≥ 40 years old were collected from 2002 to 2013. Psoriasis and osteoporosis were included using ICD-10 codes. In study I (a follow-up study), a total of 25,306 psoriasis participants were matched to 101,224 controls with respect to age group, sex, income group, and region of residence, and the occurrence of osteoporosis was analyzed. Crude (simple) and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were analyzed using a stratified Cox proportional hazard model. In study II (a nested case–control study), a total of 79,212 osteoporosis patients were matched to 79,212 controls, and a previous history of psoriasis was analyzed. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were analyzed using a conditional logistic regression analysis. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to age group and sex. Results: The adjusted HR of osteoporosis was 1.11 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07-1.15, P < 0.001) in study I. In the subgroup analysis according to age and sex, the results were consistent except for the ≥ 60-year-old women. The adjusted OR of psoriasis was 1.22 (95% CI = 1.16-1.28, P < 0.001) in study II. All subgroups demonstrated high adjusted ORs of osteoporosis for psoriasis. Conclusions: Psoriasis increased the risk of osteoporosis in the population of participants aged ≥ 40 years in Korea.

Nowadays tourism is growing as a gigantic, global business accounting for 10.4 % of Global GDP and 10% of global employment (Joppe, 2020). This review paper aims to explore the risks borne for tourism sector by the outbreak of corona-virus in 2020. Tourism sector is a highly vulnerable sector and the costs that will be borne from corona-virus pandemic will be devastating, particularly for the countries relying on this sector as a basic source of income. The paper suggests possible solutions and adaptation routes, while at the same time reviews lessons of the past from other pandemics and crisis. This paper is very useful for tourism policy makers and governments in countries where tourism contributes a significant part of their GDP, but also for other economic sectors closely but indirectly connected in the tourism value chain.

Diarrhoea contributes significantly in the under-five childhood morality and mortality worldwide. This cross-sectional study was carried out in a tertiary care hospital in Ujjain, India from July 2015 to June 2016. Consecutive children aged 1 month to 12 years having “some dehydration” and “dehydration” according to World Health Organization classification were eligible to be included in the study. Other signs and symptoms used to assess severe dehydration were capillary refill time, urine output, and abnormal respiratory pattern. A questionnaire was administered to identify risk factors for severe dehydration, which was the primary outcome. Multivariate logistic regression modeling was used to detect independent risk factors for severe dehydration. The study included 332 children, with mean ± standard deviation age of 25.62 ± 31.85 months; out of which, 70%(95% confidence interval [CI] 65 to 75) were diagnosed to have severe dehydration. The independent risk factors for severe dehydration were: child not exclusive breast fed in the first six months of life (AOR 5.67, 95%CI 2.51 to 12.78; p<0.001), history of not receiving oral rehydration solution before hospitalization (AOR 1.34, 95%CI 1.01 to 1.78; p=0.038), history of not receiving oral zinc before hospitalization (AOR 2.66, 95%CI 1.68 to 4.21; p<0.001) and living in overcrowded conditions (AOR 5.52, 95%CI 2.19 to 13.93; p<0.001). The study identified many risk factors associated with severe childhood dehydration; many of them are modifiable though known and effective public health interventions.

This review aimed to update the main aspects of aflatoxin production, occurrence and incidence in selected countries, and associated aflatoxicosis outbreaks. Means to reduce aflatoxin incidence in crops were also presented with an emphasis on the environment-friendly technology using atoxigenic strains of Aspergillus flavus. Aflatoxins are unavoidable widespread natural contaminants of foods and feeds with serious impact on health, agricultural and livestock productivity, and food safety. They are secondary metabolites produced by Aspergillus species distributed on three main sections of the genus (section Flavi, section Ochraceorosei, and section Nidulantes). Poor economic status of a country exacerbates the risk and the extent of crop contamination due to faulty storage conditions that are usually suitable for mold growth and mycotoxin production: temperature of 22 to 29°C and water activity of 0.90 to 0.99. This situation paralleled the prevalence of high liver cancer and the occasional acute aflatoxicosis episodes that have been associated with these regions. Risk assessment studies revealed that Southeast Asian and Sub-Saharan African countries remain at high risk and that, apart from the regulatory standards revision to be more restrictive, other actions to prevent or decontaminate crops are to be taken for adequate public health protection. Indeed, a review of publications on the incidence of aflatoxins in selected foods and feeds from countries whose crops are classically known for their highest contamination with aflatoxins, reveals that despite the intensive efforts made to reduce such an incidence, there has been no clear tendency, with the possible exception of South Africa, towards sustained improvements. Nonetheless, a global risk assessment of the new situation regarding crop contamination with aflatoxins by international organizations with the required expertise is suggested to appraise where we stand presently.

This study aims to evaluate the patient’s dose exposure from Computed Tomography Pulmonary Angiography (CTPA) examination and to estimates the cancer risk induced from the examinations based on the patient’s size. One hundred patients were recruited, and data information was collected retrospectively. A multi-detector (MDCT) (Philips Brilliance 128, USA) scanner were utilized for the CTPA examination, and dose data were obtained from the system. The effective diameter of each subjects’ image was measured for the Size-specific dose estimates (SSDEs). All subjects divided into Group 1 (19 – 25 cm), Group 2 (25-28 cm) and Group 3 (28-38 cm), where the association between gender were analysed. Effective dose (E), SSDE, organ dose and cancer risk of each group were evaluated and compared statistically using independent t-test and one-way ANOVA. The range of mean CTDI_vol, DLP and E values were (6.44 – 17.42 mGy), (239 – 631 mGy), (5.19 – 13.90 mSv), respectively. In respective with the patient’s effective diameter, the mean SSDE value for Group 1, Group 2 and Group 3 were 9.93 ± 3.89 mGy, 13.70 ± 9.04 mGy and 22.29 ± 7.35 mGy. The organ dose and cancer risk attained for breast, lung and liver were 17.05 ± 10.40 mGy (194 per one million procedure), 17.55 ± 10.86 mGy (192 per one million procedure) and 15.04 ± 9.75 mGy (53 per one million procedure), respectively. Lung and breast with more massive patient’s effective diameter received the highest dose exposure which increases the probability of the cancer risk. CTDI_vol was found to be underestimated, and SSDE provides more accurate in describing the radiation dose and cancer risk. Body effective diameter found to be significant on the estimation except for gender. Therefore, it is essential to apply optimised protocols in order to reduce patient’s exposure during CTPA examination.

Microplastics (of size < 5mm) pollution in our environment is of current concern by researchers, public media and non-governmental organizations. Implications by their presence in aquatic and soil ecosystems have been well studied and documented, but less attention has been paid on airborne microplastics (MPs). Studies concerning airborne microplastics started from 2016 and only a few (n=7) have been published till date. Although, studies may increase in the following years, since air is very important for human survival. Microplastics have been observed in atmospheric fallouts in indoor and outdoor environments using a sampling or vacuum pump, rain sampler and/or particulate fallout collector. Identification and quantification have been carried out by visual, spectroscopic and spectrometric techniques. Factors such as meterological, climatic and anthropogenic influence the distribution and movement of airborne MP. Human exposure may be through inhalation or dermal route with their potential biopersistence and translocation. Ingestion may cause localized inflammation and cancer due to responses by the immune cells, especially in individuals with compromised metabolism and poor clearance mechanisms. Ecological risks involve possible contamination of the ecosystem through a dynamic relationship of MPs in soil, water and air forming a MP contamination cycle. The present review aimed at providing a comprehensive overview of current knowledge or information regarding microplastics in air, identifies gap in knowledge and give suggestions for future research.

This study is aimed to explore the environmental risk posed by the unsustainable mining activities in Mulawarman village, East Kalimantan, and articulate the disproportionate impact from the perspective of environmental justice on how mining regulations affect the lives of a vulnerable community. A qualitative comparative analysis based on the legislation and administrative rules on coal mining, and a case study of Mulawarman village were adopted. The information was framed based (participatory) observation, and in-depth interview, and purposively conducted to six selected respondents. The result shows how the laws and regulations disadvantage the community and expose them to unequal treatment. The adverse effects of mining activities change the socio-environmental dynamics in this village. Being the breadbasket in 1997, Mulawarman villagers experience the loss of food self-sufficiency, and turn to the government and mining company for social welfare, and clean water. Also, inconsistent and incomplete regulations pertaining to mining, favor to serve the business interests before the environment and the local community. This results in severe encroachment upon community rights and leads to long-term conflicts between mining companies and local communities, and has weakened the capacity of local authorities to help the affected community to recover their rights.

Downpours are increasing in frequency and severity due to climate change. Cities are particularly susceptible to downpours because of their large share of impervious surfaces. Minimising pluvial flood risk requires all involved stakeholders to collaborate and overcome probable barriers. Simultaneously, an increase in citizen engagement in climate adaptation is preferred, whereas experiences with inclusive decision-making are still limited. The aim of this paper is to obtain a deeper understanding of how the capacity to govern pluvial flood risk can be developed through citizen engagement. We scrutinised the capacity of local actors to govern pluvial flood risk in the city of Utrecht, the Netherlands. For the analysis of Utrecht’s problem-solving capacity, the Governance Capacity Framework provided a consistent assessment of governance components. The results indicate that Utrecht’s capacity to govern pluvial flooding is relatively well-developed. Collaboration between public authorities is advanced, sufficient financial resources are available and smart monitoring enables high levels of evaluation and learning. However, citizen awareness and engagement in policy making is rather low. Accordingly, citizens’ willingness to pay for flood adaptation is limited. Stimulating flood risk awareness by combining financial incentives with more advanced arrangements for active citizen engagement is key for Utrecht and other cities.

Improving the efficiency of the supply process in prefabricated components is challenging and requires accounting for a variety of risks involved in the management of the suppliers. The purpose of this study is to present a method to account for the systematic trade-offs between several supplier alternatives. A novel framework is presented for the whole assessment of supplier alternatives by taking advantage of the information extracted from customized building information modeling (BIM) and a database required for assessment of impacts. A data library related to assessment criteria for supply alternatives is built to facilitate the storage and sharing of information. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to select the optimal supplier that is able to provide the most satisfaction for the determined criteria. The proposed framework was also illustrated by the implementation in a mega project. The study implication is that BIM-enabled supplier selection can indeed lead to more benefits and higher values for all stakeholders.

Having sustained, over the course of more than two decades, record-breaking natural catastrophe losses, American insurers and reinsurers are justifiably questioning the potential linkage between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather. Here, we explore issues pertaining to this linkage, looking at both the likely short-term implications for the insurance industry, as well as potential longer-term impacts on financial performance and corporate resilience. We begin our discussion with an overview of the implications that climate change is likely to have on the industry, especially as it relates to how catastrophic risks are construed, assessed, and managed. We then present the rudiments of an econometric analysis that explores the financial resilience of the property/casualty (P/C) industry in the face of both natural and man-made catastrophes. In this analysis, we explore the profitability consequences of several illustrative scenarios involving large-scale losses from extreme weather—specifically, a sequence of storms like those striking the U.S. in 2004—and a scenario that explores the prospect of a Katrina-scale storm in combination with a mass terror attack on the scale of 9/11. At systemic levels of aggregation, our analysis suggests a high degree of macro-resilience for the insurance industry. Moreover, we find that insurer resilience is higher for larger impacts, considering both the speed of recovery, as well as the inverse of the area under the unaffected system profile. We conclude with a summary of our findings and a closing commentary that explores the potential implications of these results for P/C insurers moving forward.

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) represents an important public health problem with a prevalence between 1.3% and 12.5%. Several population-based randomized trials have evaluated ultrasound screening for AAA providing evidence of a reduction in aneurysm-related mortality in the screened population. The aim of our study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk factors for AAA. We conducted a systematic review of observational studies and we performed a meta-analysis that evaluated the following risk factors: gender, smoking habits, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, Coronary Artery Disease and family history of AAA. Abdominal aortic aneurysm prevalence is higher in smokers and in males. It is important to underline that all countries, where AAA screening was set up, had high income level and the majority belong to Western Europe (United Kingdom, Sweden, Italy, Poland, Spain and Belgium). Abdominal aortic aneurysm screening is fundamental for public health. It would avoid deaths, ruptures, and emergency surgical interventions if abdominal aortic aneurysm was diagnosed early in the population target for screening.

Background: Whilst lack of concentration is a known symptom of anaemia, its association with post-stroke dementia is unclear. Methods: We used data from a UK regional stroke register. To be eligible, patient must have survived to discharge and had anaemia by WHO criteria. Dementia status and other prevalent co-morbidities were assessed using ICD-10 codes. Patients were followed till May 2015 (mean follow-up 3.7 years, total person years = 27,769). Hazard Ratio for incident dementia was calculated using Cox-proportional hazards model controlling for potential confounders. Fine and Gray model was additionally constructed using mortality as the competing risk. Results: A total of 7,454 stroke patients were included with mean age (SD) of 75.9(12.3) years (50.2% men). Those with anaemia were older, has higher disability and co-morbidity burden prior to stroke. We observed a large amount of variation in the dementia incidence rates over time and that the hazard ratio increased every year. The significant association between anaemia and dementia incidence was lost after controlling for pre-stroke Modified Rankin score (HR1.17(0.97,1.40)). With every 20g/dL increase in Hb was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of dementia after adjustment for age, sex, stroke factors and disability but lost significance after adjustment for vascular risk factors. Competing risk analyses showed similar results. Conclusion: Whilst we found no evidence of anaemia as a risk factor for post-stroke dementia, the findings may be limited by potential under recognition of post stroke dementia.

This study aims to find a communication model of contingency plan for disaster risk management of Sinabung Volcano eruption, in North Sumatera. The object of the research is communication and coordination across the government, non-government organization, and community. This study used planning theory, the concept of communication planning, and types of disaster management plan as tools for analysing. Descriptive qualitative is used as the method. Data collection was obtained from the focus group discussion (FGD), in-depth interviews, observation, and study documentation. There are three stages in descriptive qualitative research that is data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion. An analysis was conducted qualitatively on the program and competence actors. The results found the communication model of disaster risk management through documents of contingency planning to overcome the threat of Mount Sinabung eruption. During the emergency response period a core model was used to reduce the impact of the Mount Sinabung eruption. The contingency plan becomes the Karo District Government’s document. This document were authorized by an authorized official and is ready to be applied to the Emergency Response Operation Plan. Plans for emergency response operations are carried out based on information regarding damage and the need to obtain results of a quick review. Contingency plans are submitted to the legislature for political commitment and support and budget allocation.

In mega cities such as Seoul in South Korea, it is very important to protect the city from the flooding even for the short time of period due to the enormous amount of economic damage. In impervious area of the city, stormwater pipe network is commonly applied to discharge rainfall to the outside of catchment. Therefore, the stormwater pipe network in urban catchment should be carefully designed to discharge the runoff quickly and efficiently. In this study, different types of structures in stormwater pipe network were evaluated using the relationship between the peaks rainfall and runoff in urban catchments in South Korea. More than 400 historical rainfall events were applied in five urban catchments to estimate peak runoff from different type of network structures. Linear regression analysis was implemented to estimate peak runoffs. The coefficient of determination of the regressions were higher than 0.9 which means the regression model represent very well the relationship between the two peaks. However, the variation of the prediction becomes large as the peak rainfall increases and the variation become even larger when the network structure is branched. Therefore, it depends on the structure of stormwater pipe network. When the water paths in the pipe network is unique (branched network), the increased amount of rainfall is congested around the rainwater inlets and the uncertainty of peak runoff prediction is increased. If there are many possible water paths depending on the amount of discharge (looped network), the increased rainfall is discharged more quickly through the many water paths. This can be a way to represent the reliability of the stormwater pipe network. The structures of stormwater pipe network is evaluated using drainage density which is the length of pipes over the unit catchment area and 95% confidence interval. As a result, the 95% confidence interval is increased as the drainage density is increased because the accuracy of peak runoff prediction is decreased. As mentioned earlier, because the looped networks have many alternative water flowing paths, elimination time of rainfall from the catchments become short, the 95% confidence interval become narrow, and the reliability of peak runoff prediction become high. Therefore, it is beneficial to install looped stormwater pipe network within the affordable budget. It is important factor to determine the amount of complexity in stormwater pipe network to decrease the risk of urban flooding.

In this study, we used the natural and anthropogenic characteristics of a coastal region to generate risk maps showing vulnerability and potential hazards, and proposed design criteria for coastal defense and land use for the various kinds of risks faced. The Yunlin coast: a first-level protection area in mid-west Taiwan, was then used as an example to illustrate the proposed design criteria. The safety of the present coastal defenses and land use of the Yunlin coastal area was assessed, and coastal protection measures for hazard prevention were proposed based on the generated risk map. The results can be informative for future coastal management and the promotion of sustainable development of coastal zones.

This paper relies on accounting-based measures of country risk to investigate U.S. global banks' exposure to foreign country risk over the 2017 fiscal year as measured by the sum of cross-border risk, foreign office risk, and derivative risk claims. We achieve this using panel linear modeling methods with country level heterogeneity and time fixed effects, along with a constructed panel data of 284 observations on 71 countries distributed across 6 world regional blocks, and observed over 4 consecutive quarters starting from 4th quarter 2016 and ending with 3rd quarter 2017. The results show that on average, over the four quarters, a 1% increase in foreign banking sector's claims significantly increases U.S. global banks cross border risk exposure by 0.34%, while reducing derivative risk exposure by 0.22%, but have no significant impact on foreign office risk exposure. Similar results are observed with public sector claims which significantly increase banks' exposure to cross border risk by 0.21%, while reducing derivative risk exposure by 0.19%. Conversely however, non-bank financial sector claims are found to have no significant affect on cross-border risk exposure, but significantly reduce foreign office risk exposure by 0.09%, while increasing derivative risk exposure by 0.06%. These results indicate the presence of sectoral heterogeneities in U.S. banks' exposure to foreign counterparties' risk, and also that overall, over the course of 2017 the level of U.S. global banks' cross-border risk exposure increased, while their level of derivative risk exposure decreased, and the level of foreign office risk exposure remained relatively unchanged.

In current diagnostic systems, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder are still conceptualized as distinct categorical entities. Recently, both clinical and genetic evidence have challenged this Kraepelinian dichotomy. There are only few longitudinal studies addressing the potential overlaps between these conditions. Here, we present design and first results of the PsyCourse study, an ongoing transdiagnostic study of the affective-to-psychotic continuum that combines longitudinal deep phenotyping and dimensional assessment of psychopathology with an extensive collection of biomaterial. Within the DSM-IV framework, we compare two broad diagnostic groups: one consisting of predominantly affective and one of predominantly psychotic disorders. Depressive, manic, and psychotic symptoms as well as global functioning over time were analyzed. Furthermore, we explore the effects of polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia on diagnostic group membership and address their effects on non-participation in follow-up visits. While phenotypic results show differences in both current psychotic and manic symptoms, depressive symptoms did not vary between both groups. Polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia significantly explained part of the variability of the diagnostic group. Furthermore, there was a trend that a higher polygenic loading for schizophrenia was associated with attrition. Because of its unique properties, the PsyCourse study presents a prime resource for the interrogation of complex genotype-phenotype relationships.

In this study, we attempted to verify the hypothesis that total metals bound to dust of different particle sizes may reflect pollution levels, but cannot predict its bioavailability and risks in human health assessments. Dust samples were collected using active sampling method; during the dry season months of November, 2014 to March, 2015 at different locations in Akure (7˚10ʹN and 5˚15ʹE). The samples were sorted into different particle sizes (< 10µm, 10 – 50 µm, >50µm), analyzed for some physicochemical properties and assessed for metals bioavailability using two-step physiological extraction method. The amount of metals (Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, Zn and Mn) released in each particle sizes were determined using Perkin-Elmer 6000 Inductively Coupled Plasma - Atomic Emission Spectrometry (ICP-AES) analysis. The results showed that bioavailability of some metals (Cd, Ni, Pb, and Zn) decreases with increasing particle sizes, however, the reverse trend was observed for Mn, Cu and Fe concentrations. This may be attributed to some combination of physicochemical characteristics of the dust and metal speciation. Hence, it was concluded that metal bioaccessibility in dust can best be described by the knowledge of physicochemical characteristics. The exposure dose of the metals showed that cancer risks due to inhalation were very high when compared to other exposure routes (ingestion and dermal contact). The calculated non-cancer (HQ) and cancer risk (HI) for humans in the area showed values higher than unity, indicating possibility of the metals’ body burden.

Regulators require financial institutions to estimate counterparty default risks from liquid CDS quotes for the valuation and risk management of OTC derivatives. However, the vast majority of counterparties do not have liquid CDS quotes and need proxy CDS rates. Existing methods cannot account for counterparty-specific default risks; we propose to construct proxy CDS rates by associating to illiquid counterparty liquid CDS Proxy based on Machine Learning Techniques. After testing 156 classifiers from 8 most popular classifier families, we found that some classifiers achieve highly satisfactory accuracy rates. Furthermore, we have rank-ordered the performances and investigated performance variations amongst and within the 8 classifier families. This paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the first systematic study of CDS Proxy construction by Machine Learning techniques, and the first systematic classifier comparison study based entirely on financial market data. Its findings both confirm and contrast existing classifier performance literature. Given the typically highly correlated nature of financial data, we investigated the impact of correlation on classifier performance. The techniques used in this paper should be of interest for financial institutions seeking a CDS Proxy method, and can serve for proxy construction for other financial variables. Some directions for future research are indicated.

Published in July 2018, TAILORx aimed to establish non-inferiority of endocrine therapy (ET) compared to addition of chemotherapy (CHT-ET) in hormone receptor positive, human epidermal receptor 2 negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer (BC) patients with a 21-gene intermediate (11-25) recurrence score (RS). While this hypothesis proved correct, the study did show benefit of addition of chemotherapy (CHT) in a subgroup of women under 50 years of age, and particularly in the RS 16-25. The aim of this present study was to look at how TAILORx findings, including changes in RS categories, impacted CHT implementation at one oncologic center in Basel, Switzerland, and to identify main factors leading to these changes. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study on HR+/HER2-, BC patients who underwent 21-gene genomic testing between 2010-2021, at our center. Patients with metastatic disease were not included. We identified 326 eligible patients, of which 165 had a BC diagnosis before TAILORx (cohort A) and 161 after TAILORx publication (cohort B). Results: Demographic and tumor characteristics were similar in the two cohorts, although cohort B included significantly more women under the age of 50 when compared to A (34% vs. 24%, p<0.001). Median age and mean RS results were comparable 59 (IQR 16) in A and 58 (IQR 19) years in B and 17.72 (SD9.59) in A and 17.89 (SD9.53) in B, respectively. Patients in cohort A were slightly more overweight when compared to B (55% vs. 40% respectively, p<0.001). Most patients had stage II tumors of NST histologic type. Tumors in cohort B had higher Ki-67 than cohort A (39% vs. 32%, p=0.010). When compared based on manufacturer’s and based on TAILORx thresholds there were no significant differences in RS distribution. However, changes in score category led to shifts in patient population distribution, leading to a 40% drop in the low RS (from 60% to 20%), a doubling in the intermediate RS (from 30% to 60%) and an increase of 5% in the high RS (from 8-10% to 15%). Most patients had conservative surgery, adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) and ET. Overall CHT recommendation and application did not differ significantly in B vs. A. There was a reduction of 1% in the intermediate RS (11-25) and an increase of 13% CHT-ET application in the high RS (>26) category. In cohort B we noticed an increase in CHT-ET application among women <50 years old (by 12.5%), in lobular carcinomas (by 10%), grade 3 tumors (by 2%), node positive BC (by 3%) and node negative (by 2%). Tumor board recommendation for CHT dropped by 1% in the post TAILORx era, with a notable reduction of 5% in the intermediate RS (11-25) category. However, overall CHT administration rate was 19% in cohort A and 22% in B (p=0.763). Tumor Board recommended CHT for 90% of the BC patients that would have otherwise been assigned to CHT according to new RS guidelines in A and for 85% in B, showing a trend for undertreatment. Logistic regression analysis showed significance of age in both cohort A (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.11, p=0.03) and cohort B (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.84-0.94), p<0.001), and of nodal status in both cohort A (=R 3.32 95% CI 1.09-10-06, p=0.034) and cohort B (OR 3.31, 95% CI 1.29-8.53, p=0.013), while intermediate and high RS seem to be more relevant in cohort A (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.03-0.43, p=0.01 and OR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01-0.21, p<0.01). Overall logistic regression analysis showed relevance of age (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.08-0.97, p=0.001), pN (OR 4.77, 95% CI 2.03-11.22, p<0.001) and RS categories (RS 11-25: OR 0.02, 95% CI 0.01-0.07, p<0.001; RS>26: OR 617.93, 95% CI 57.97-6587.16, p<0.001). Conclusion: Our findings are similar to those reported across several studies: while tumor board recommendation for CHT decreases in the intermediate RS category, there is an increase being reported in the high RS category, leading to overall minor changes in CHT application. Administration of CHT-ET seems to be increasing among younger women, with unfavorable histo-pathological factors, such as lobular carcinoma and G3 histologic grade. Before TAILORx there is a tendency for undertreatment (-10%), especially among older BC patients, which seems to be maintained and even deepened (-15%) in the post TAILORx era, pointing to a personalized decision-making approach among Swiss oncologists.

Cash crops are agricultural crops intended to be sold for profit as opposed to subsistence crops, meant to support the producer, or to support livestock. Since cash crops are intended for future sale, they translate into large financial value when considered on a wide geographical scale, so their production directly involves financial risk. At a national level, extreme weather events including destructive rain or hail, as well as drought, can have a significant impact on the overall economic balance. It is thus important to map such crops in order to set up insurance and mitigation strategies. Using locally generated data -such as municipality-level records of crop seeding- for mapping purposes implies facing a series of issues like data availability, quality, homogeneity etc. We thus opted for a different approach relying on global datasets. Global datasets ensure homogeneity and availability of data, although sometimes at the expense of precision and accuracy. A typical global approach makes use of spaceborne remote sensing, for which different land cover classification strategies are available in literature at different levels of cost and accuracy. We selected the optimal strategy in the perspective of a global processing chain. Thanks to a specifically developed strategy for fusing unsupervised classification results with environmental constraints and other geospatial inputs including ground-based data, we managed to obtain good classification results despite the constraints placed. The overall production process was composed using ``good-enough" algorithms at each step, ensuring that the precision, accuracy, and data-hunger of each algorithm was commensurate to the precision, accuracy, and amount of data available. This paper describes the tailored strategy developed on the occasion as a cooperation among different groups with diverse backgrounds, a strategy which is believed to be profitably reusable in other, similar contexts. The paper presents the problem, the constraints and the adopted solutions; it then summarizes the main findings including that efforts and costs can be saved on the side of Earth Observation data processing when additional ground-based data are available to support the mapping task.

Multi-stakeholder based construction projects are subject to various risk factors due to dynamic business environments. These risks affect project activities which indirectly impact construction costs, resulting in delays and poor building quality. So, managing these project risks requires suitable risk mitigation strategies to evaluate and analyse their severity. Hence, risk evaluation and assessment of construction projects is a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. In present real-life problems, evaluation of project risks is often uncertain and even incomplete, and the prevailing methodologies fail to handle such situations. To address the problem, this paper extends the analytical network process (ANP) methodology in the D number domain to handle three types of ambiguous evaluations, viz. complete, uncertain, and incomplete, and assesses the weight of risk criteria. The D number based approach overcomes the deficiencies of the exclusiveness hypothesis and completeness constraint of Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory. Here, preference ratings of the decision matrix for each decision-maker are determined using a D number extended consistent fuzzy preference relation (D-CFPR). An extended multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) method in D number is then developed to rank and select the best alternative risk response strategy. Finally, an illustrative example from construction sector is presented to check the feasibility of the proposed approach. For checking the reliability of alternative ranking, a comparative analysis is performed with different MCDM approaches (D-COPRAS, D-ARAS, D-MABAC, and D-TOPSIS). Based on different criteria weights, a sensitivity analysis of obtained ranking of the hybrid D-ANP-MABAC model is performed for verify the robustness of the proposed method.

The world is currently experiencing the fourth industrial revolution driven by the newest wave of digitisation in the manufacturing sector. The term Industry 4.0 (I4.0) represents at the same time: a paradigm shift in industrial production, a generic designation for sets of strategic initiatives to boost national industries, a technical term to relate to new emerging business assets, processes and services, and a brand to mark a very particular historical and social period. I4.0 is also referred to as Industrie 4.0 the New Industrial France, the Industrial Internet, the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the digital economy. These terms are used interchangeably in this text. The aim of this article is to discuss major developments in this space in relation to the integration of new developments of IoT and cyber physical systems in the digital economy, to better understand cyber risks and economic value and risk impact. The objective of the paper is to map the current evolution and its associated cyber risks for the digital economy sector and to discuss the future developments in the Industrial Internet of Things and Industry 4.0.

Heterocyclic pharmaceuticals are emerging contaminants due to their toxic, carcinogenic nature and detrimental impact on the natural ecosystem. These compounds pose a significant environmental concern given their widespread use in medical therapy, constituting over 90% of new medications. Their unique chemical structure contributes to their persistence in various environmental matrices, necessitating urgent measures to mitigate their risks. This review comprehensively examines the sources, environmental fate, toxicity, and long-term risks associated with heterocyclic pharmaceuticals, proposing potential remediation strategies. The article commences with an overview of the diverse types of heterocyclic pharmaceuticals and their applications, focusing on compounds containing heteroatoms such as nitrogen, oxygen, and sulfur. Subsequently, it explores the sources and pathways through which these pollutants enter the environment, including wastewater discharge, agricultural runoff, improper disposal, resistance to biodegradation, and bioaccumulation. The toxic effects and long-term consequences of exposure to heterocyclic pharmaceuticals are then discussed, encompassing neurotoxicity, genotoxicity, mutagenesis, cardiovascular and metabolic toxicity, carcinogenicity, and teratogenesis. Additionally, the review summarizes various remediation strategies and treatment solutions aimed at reducing the environmental impact of these compounds, drawing insights from the literature. The research concludes by identifying critical areas for future research, emphasizing the urgent need for more effective remediation strategies to address the growing concern posed by these emerging contaminants.

Insurance companies have a risk of bankruptcy if the funds disbursed exceed the reserves owned, or the surplus is negative. The risk of bankruptcy can be predicted using a mathematical model to anticipate the possibility of bankruptcy early on, so the surplus process needs to be observed in its evolution over time, assumed to be discrete time because it refers to the budget year period. The surplus process model is generally determined by three components, namely company capital, total premiums, and total claims. The sharia insurance scheme separates the management of the company's capital account from the premium and claim fund accounts, making it easier to monitor the evolution of its surplus process. This study systematically reviews the surplus process model for the sharia insurance scheme. The systematic review method is carried out by collecting scientific papers published in the Scopus, ScienceDirect, Dimensions, and Google Scholar databases. The PRISMA flowchart selects and then produces three scientific papers that are relevant to the topic. The results of this study provide insight into the form of the surplus process model and four sharia insurance schemes, namely mudharabah, wakalah, hybrid, and waqf. However, the scheme introduced is still a general description, there is no scheme based on needs or social problems in society such as the integration of productive waqf with welfare benefits for groups in need such as fishermen. This research was conducted towards the transition towards sustainable development of sharia insurance.

Coastal ecosystems are crucial in mitigating the impact of coastal hazards on society. However, the paucity of infor-mation about the purpose of these ecosystems in reducing floods in Rivers State, Nigeria. This study aims to assess the contribution of mangrove ecosystems in protecting coastal communities from flooding using the InVEST coastal vulnera-bility model (version 3.10.2). The model analyzes various data inputs and assigns relative numbers, ranging from 1 to 5, indicating different levels of exposure. Data on population, bathymetry, shoreline type, land use land cover, and conti-nental shelf were obtained from relevant websites and the InVEST model package. The findings indicate that the mangrove ecosystems in River State offer minimal protection against coastal flooding due to their degraded state caused by oil spills and over-exploitation. Additionally, sandy beaches provide little to no protection, and the socio-economic conditions in the communities contribute to increased vulnerability to flooding. The study recommends awareness programs to educate the public about the importance of mangroves for coastal protection in addition to their conservation and restoration.

The evolution and acceleration of the effects of climate change on the water cycle demand adaptation and mitigation plans. Consequently, the implementation of public policies (management, governance, and strategy) regarding flood risk management or prevention (such as levee heights and spillway dimensions of dams) is based on the characterization of flood hazards. This requires understanding extreme climate phenomena and conducting a rigorous probabilistic analysis of hydrometric data. This study aims to estimate the flood quantiles for lake Nokoue. To achieve this, the adopted methodology involved fitting the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, the Gumbel distribution, and the Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution to the annual maximum water levels of lake Nokoue from 2015 to 2022. We estimated experimental probabilities using the Weibull formula. The assessment of the fit quality of the theoretical probability distributions to our data sample indicated that the Gumbel distribution was the most suitable, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0724, compared to 0.0754 and 0.0761 for the GEV and GPA distributions, respectively. The position and scale parameters (φ; α) of the Gumbel distribution were estimated to be 3.802 and 0.249, respectively. This allows for the calculation of the probability of an extreme water level occurring within a return period in a single day. Thus, the extreme water levels (flood quantiles) associated with return periods of 10, 50, and 100 years, as determined by the Gumbel distribution, are 4.36m, 4.77m, and 4.95m, respectively. These values are of crucial importance for the design of flood prevention structures (infrastructure) intended to mitigate flood risk.

Coastal ecosystems are crucial in mitigating the impact of coastal hazards on society. However, the paucity of information about the purpose of these ecosystems in reducing floods in Rivers State, Nigeria. This study aims to assess the contribution of mangrove ecosystems in protecting coastal communities from flooding using the InVEST coastal vulnerability model (version 3.10.2). The model analyzes various data inputs and assigns relative numbers, ranging from 1 to 5, indicating different levels of exposure. Data on population, bathymetry, shoreline type, land use land cover, and continental shelf were obtained from relevant websites and the InVEST model package. The findings indicate that the mangrove ecosystems in River State offer minimal protection against coastal flooding due to their degraded state caused by oil spills and over-exploitation. Additionally, sandy beaches provide little to no protection, and the socio-economic conditions in the communities contribute to increased vulnerability to flooding. The study recommends awareness programs to educate the public about the importance of mangroves for coastal protection in addition to their conservation and restoration.

Objective : Children < 15 years old are thought to be the most vulnerable group to contracting the infection than adults due to their immature or developing immunity. We investigated whether index patient child leprosy are associated with parental education, parental unemployment, parental income, household crowding, inadequate ventilation household contacts, neighbours contact and nutritional deficiency in Dili, Liquica, Manatuto, Baucau, RAEOA. Methods: We designed matched case-control study. Cases were fathers of children with leprosy under 15 years old while controls were non random sample of children without leprosy who live in the same household and neighbourhood with child leprosy < 15 years who have the same age and gender with child leprosy. The case-to-control ratio was 1:2. We identified the factors that significantly differed between the cases and controls in a multivariable binary logistic regression analysis and reported the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI)Results: We found similar demographic among the 40 cases and 80 controls. The research results indicated that out of the 8 variables examined, 4 variables household contacts, household crowding, inadequate ventilation, and nutritional deficiency were significant risk factors (P value < 0.005). In a multivariate analysis, household contact was identified as a significant factor in the occurrence of leprosy in children under 15 years old (P value = 0.003, AOR = 3.788, 95% CI: 1.593–9.003)Conclusion: Considering that household contacts consist of a recognizable group of individuals under 15 years old with a high risk of disease, as they live in close proximity to a source of infection, it is essential to focus on education, routine screening, and the application of chemoprophylactic protocols towards leprosy prevention among household contacts, especially blood relatives.

The evolution and acceleration of the effects of climate change on the water cycle demand adaptation and mitigation plans. Consequently, the implementation of public policies (management, governance, and strategy) regarding flood risk management or prevention (such as levee heights and spillway dimensions of dams) is based on the characterization of flood hazards. This requires understanding extreme climate phenomena and conducting a rigorous probabilistic analysis of hydrometric data. This study aims to estimate the flood quantiles for lake Nokoue. To achieve this, the adopted methodology involved fitting the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, the Gumbel distribution, and the Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution to the annual maximum water levels of lake Nokoue from 2015 to 2022. We estimated experimental probabilities using the Weibull formula. The assessment of the fit quality of the theoretical probability distributions to our data sample indicated that the Gumbel distribution was the most suitable, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0724, compared to 0.0754 and 0.0761 for the GEV and GPA distributions, respectively. The position and scale parameters (φ; α) of the Gumbel distribution were estimated to be 3.802 and 0.249, respectively. This allows for the calculation of the probability of an extreme water level occurring within a return period in a single day. Thus, the extreme water levels (flood quantiles) associated with return periods of 10, 50, and 100 years, as determined by the Gumbel distribution, are 4.36m, 4.77m, and 4.95m, respectively. These values are of crucial importance for the design of flood prevention structures (infrastructure) intended to mitigate flood risk.

Background: The early identification of patients at risk of peri-procedural complications and poor prognosis is very important. We conducted our study to determine if there are associations between serum orexigenic neuropeptide Y (NPY) concentration and nutritional status, and prognosis among patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC). Materials and Methods: A cohort study with a 3-month follow-up was conducted with 84 consecutive inpatients who underwent elective surgery in one center between 2016 and 2019 for primary CRC. In all patients, clinical characteristics and nutritional status were assessed. In a long-term follow-up (median; IQR: 1322; 930-1788 days; average 3.6 years), the patients’ survival status was checked during a telephone visit. Results: Before CRC surgery, patients with serum NPY concentration equal to or higher than the median value (661.70 pg/ml) had, in comparison to individuals with lower blood NPY concentration, higher scores in Mini Nutritional Assessment, Barthel, and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) questionnaires, greater handgrip strength, a lower score in the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment, almost a three times lower risk of perioperative complications, as well as, at the 3-month follow-up visit, higher Barthel and IADL scores and larger calf circumference. Higher blood NPY concentration was predictive of a low Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 score at the 3-month visit, and significantly influenced patients’ survival during the 1200 days after CRC surgery. Conclusions: Higher blood NPY concentration was associated with lower nutritional risk, more favorable patient nutritional and functional status, and better survival during the 1200 days after CRC surgery.

A new maritime order is emerging – the blue economy – characterised by a plethora of non-traditional security threats. Using the case of the Western Indian Ocean I demonstrate how the creation of spaces of risk in response to traditional security threats by world powers has led to a new, regionally-led governance regime in response to the new maritime order. International efforts to protect shipping lanes from the threat of piracy off the coast of Somalia have evolved into wider environmental and human security measures. I analyse these changes through the lens of governmentality and argue that this case represents an example of a global governmentality in which states are responsibilised to act collaboratively by the international community through discourses of risk. Regional States have turned this to their advantage, acting together to construct and secure a new development frontier - a shared blue economy space in an extensive and difficult-to-govern territory.

Since the advent of artificial intelligence, it has not only transformed the way we live, but is also accelerating the transformation of production methods. Machine learning is a pivotal technology that endows computers with intelligence. The primary driving force behind its advancement is the pursuit of rapid and precise knowledge acquisition. Nevertheless, the existing enterprise risk decision support system is inadequate in terms of both timeliness and effectiveness when confronted with the task of analysing vast quantities of data. Furthermore, it lacks the capacity to assimilate the expertise of managers and to facilitate interaction in an intuitive manner.By combining a variety of machine learning models, the ensemble learning method effectively leverages the advantages of different algorithms, thereby improving the accuracy and stability of risk prediction. Each model provides a unique perspective and decision-making boundaries when dealing with complex enterprise risk data, but a single model may not be adequate when faced with a particular data set or a particular type of risk. The ensemble method overcomes the problem of bias or overfitting that may be caused by a single model by combining the prediction results of multiple models, so as to obtain a more robust prediction effect. These methods optimize the final prediction results based on how well they perform during training by giving different weights to each model. This convergence strategy significantly improves the accuracy of enterprise risk assessment and helps to provide decision-makers with more reliable data support to make more informed risk management decisions in complex business environments.

Background/Objectives: Body surface area is one of the most important anthropometric parameters in medicine. The study's primary objective is to compare the consistency of the BSA estimation results through applying available formulas. Other objectives include determining the ability of these formulas to discriminate between the deaths and living patients, comparing the formulas’ diagnostic features as well as investigating whether the risk associated with a low BSA is independent of BMI. Methods: The study included 1029 patients (median age: 54 years, female: 13.7%, NYHA I/II/III/IV: 6.3% / 36.5% / 47.7% / 9.5%) diagnosed with heart failure. For each patient, BSA was calculated using the 25 formulas. Over the 3-year observation period, 31.2% of the patients died. Results: The average BSA value of the optimal discrimination thresholds was 1.79 m2 ± 0.084 m2 and the BSA difference between the estimators with the lowest (BSAMeeh1879) and the highest (BSANwoye1989) optimal discrimination thresholds was 0.42 m2. The lowest mortality rate was 35.2% and occurred in the subgroup of individuals with BSA values below the optimal discrimination threshold using the BSASchlich2010 estimator. The highest mortality was observed when estimators BSAMeeh1879 or BSALivingston&Lee2001 were used. Conclusions: Our study has shown a relatively good concordance of 25 BSA estimators in BSA assessment in patients, without extremes of weight or height known to disrupt it. All BSA estimators presented a significant, although weak, ability to discriminate death from alive in 3-year follow-up. The higher risk of death in smaller patients as shown by BSA was independent of BMI in all but 2 BSA estimators.

In a systematic explorative study of genetic patterns on chromosome 19, we discovered a pattern comprised of 23 SNP alleles that is significantly associated with late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (AD). This association is validated using two independent data sets. The pattern includes THOP1, which has a long and disputatious relationship with AD. It also spans SLC39A3 and SGTA and is upstream from DIRAS1. We utilized population data to observe the frequencies of this genetic pattern for 11 different ancestries and note that it is highly common for Europeans and relatively infrequent for Africans. This research provides a distinct genetic signature for AD risk as well as insights into the complicated relationship between this disease and THOP1.

In the rapidly evolving field of insurance, accurate risk measurement is crucial for effective claims management and financial stability. Therefore, this research presented a systematic literature review (SLR) on insurance claims risk measurement using Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Bibliometric analysis was conducted using VOSviewer and ResearchRabbit software to map research trends and collaboration networks in this topic. The review explored the implementation of HMM in predicting the frequency and magnitude of insurance claims, with a focus on the statistical distribution methods used. In addition, the research emphasized the influence of the number of hidden states in HMM on claims behavior, both in terms of frequency and magnitude, and provided interpretations of these hidden dynamics. Data sources for the review comprised three databases, namely Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Dimensions. The article selection process followed PRISMA guidelines, resulting in five key articles relevant to the topic. The results offered insights into the application of HMM for forecasting the frequency and severity of insurance claims and opened avenues for further investigation on distribution models and hidden state modeling.

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors among Algerian aircrew, a population exposed to unique environmental and occupational stressors. By comparing these rates to the general population, we sought to identify specific health challenges faced by aircrew. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 154 Algerian aircrew participants. Prevalence rates for current smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia were compared between the aircrew and a general population control group. Results: Our findings revealed significantly higher rates of current smoking among aircrew compared to the general population. Additionally, smoking, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and diabetes emerged as the most prevalent risk factors within the aircrew population. Conclusions: Despite the rigorous selection process for aircrew recruitment, our study confirms findings from previous literature, highlighting the high rate of normal qualifying examinations. The substantial sample size and homogeneous nature of the aircrew population enhance the reliability and generalizability of our conclusions. These findings underscore the importance of targeted interventions to mitigate CVD risk factors within this specific population, given the unique environmental and occupational factors associated with aircrew.

Aim: The aim in this study was to conduct a prospective survey regarding the socio-demographics and lifestyle risk factors for cancer of a population of Caribbean immigrants living in the U.S. Materials and Methods: The data were processed and analysed using SPSS software 27 and Excel. Crosstabulations were performed. The chi-square test was used to evaluate differ-ent hypotheses. Statistical significance was defined as p < 0.05. Results: Statistically significant differences in the country of birth of the Caribbean immigrants were found for sex (p = 0.038) and the cleanness of their neighbourhoods (p = 0.045). We found differences in occupations between men and women (p = 0.001). Men were less unemployed than women (p = 0.011). Sex also showed statistically significant differences in how easily the immigrants balanced their work and per-sonal life (p = 0.044). Age groups depicted differences in the physical health of the immigrants (p = 0.001). The use of alcohol and tobacco was not an important risk factor among participants (p = 0.529). Conclusions: These findings suggest that the sociodemographics risk factors for cancer among a population of Caribbean immigrants were significantly different between the sexes. However, the use of tobacco and alcohol showed insignificant differences among the immigrants.

(1) Background: Hepatoblastoma is the most common primary liver cancer in children. Nowadays, poor outcome occurs essentially for patients with distant metastases; (2) Methods: Starting from Mammalian Metabolic Enzyme Database over expression of metabolic enzymes was searched in hepatoblastoma tumors as compared to noncancerous liver tissue in transcriptome dataset GSE131329. With overexpressed enzymes, Elasticnet machine learning tuning was performed according to metastasis status outcome. With significant enzymes a metabolic expression score was computed and integrated in multivariate clinical-biological logistic model; (3) Results: Forty-one overexpressed enzymes discriminate hepatoblastoma tumors and noncancerous liver tissues. Eighteen of them predict metastasis status (AUC 0.90) with 85.7% of sensibility and 92.3% of specificity. Elasticnet machine learning model tuning highlighted major importance of DNMT3B and PFKFB4 expression to predict metastasis. Role of these two enzymes was confirmed by univariate analyses with respective p-values: 0.0058 and 0.0091. Metabolic score computed with combined expression of DNMT3B and PFKFB4 discriminates metastasis status and high-risk CHIC score by univariate analysis (p-value=0.005). Meta.score was found more sensitive than C1/C2 classifier to predict metastasis status (accuracy: 0.72 versus 0.55). Integration of meta.score (DNMT3B, PFKFB4) with epidemiological parameters: gender, age at diagnosis, histological types, and clinical PRETEXT stages in a multivariate model confirmed independent adverse role of meta.score to predict metastasis status (multivariate p-value=0.003, odds ratio: 2.12); (4) Conclusions: Based on metabolic enzyme expression program of hepatoblastoma, we characterized a dual overexpression of PFKFB4 and DNMT3B in samples of patients at risk of metastasis (High risk CHIC stratification). With combined tumor expression of DNMT3B and PFKFB4 a meta.score was computed and this parameter was confirmed as an independent adverse score to predict metastatic status during hepatoblastoma.

In today's interconnected global business landscape, companies face numerous risks, particularly from their supply chains. Supplier disruptions can cause financial damages, inefficiencies, and reduced competitive edge, highlighting the need for robust supplier risk management. This paper scrutinizes recent studies on supplier risk management spanning 2020 to 2023. This review examines supplier risk management, focusing on supplier evaluation, payment terms, contract duration, and buyer-supplier collaboration as critical factors influencing risk mitigation and control in the procurement of goods and services. Through a systematic literature review, the study identifies the multifaceted nature of supplier risks, including production delays, quality issues, and financial challenges. It underscores the importance of proactive risk identification, comprehensive supplier evaluation, strategic payment terms, appropriate contract durations, and robust buyer-supplier collaboration. Despite the benefits, challenges remain, such as understanding regulatory impacts and ensuring methodological consistency. This review contributes to the discourse on supplier risk management, offering insights for future research and practical applications to enhance resilience and operational efficiency in global supply chains. Based on the findings, future studies should concentrate on formulating holistic supplier risks management approaches that nurture buyer-supplier collaboration and harness innovative technologies to enhance risk management practices.