In the context of global changes, Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) increasingly draw attention as a possible way to reduce disaster risk associated with extreme hydro-meteorological events while providing human well-being and biodiversity benefits at the same time. The PHUSICOS platform is dedicated to gather and analyse relevant NBSs used to reduce disaster risk associated with extreme hydro-meteorological events in mountainous and hilly lands. To design the platform, an in-depth review of 11 existing platforms has been performed. The platform currently references 152 literature NBS cases and is continuously enriched with demonstrator sites through the contribution of NBS community. The platform also proposes a qualitative assessment of the NBSs collected according to 15 criteria related with five ambits: disaster risk reduction, technical and economical feasibility, environment, society and local economy. This paper presents the structure of the platform and a first analysis of its content.

C-reactive protein (CRP) and leukocytes are blood biomarkers involved in "Inflamm-Aging", which is a risk factor for the onset and progression of age-related diseases. Studies show that higher serum concentrations of these biomarkers are associated with functional disability, increased risk of low muscle strength, decreased muscle mass and mortality in the elderly. The objective was to estimate the predictive power and discriminating criteria of C-reactive protein and leukocyte concentrations for the risk of adverse health factors in the elderly within 30 days after hospital discharge (HD). Prospective cohort study using exploratory methods and blood biomarkers with 135 older adults admitted to medical and surgical clinics at a government hospital. The elderly were monitored at home after 30 days of HD for adverse health factors (rehospitalization, falls, amount of medication consumed, disability in basic and instrumental activities of daily living and mortality). CRP> 2.4; ≥ 0.7 and> 24.7 mg / dL and leukocytes ≥ 6.410; ≥ 8.690 and> 8.310 mm³ were discriminant for rehospitalization, falls and mortality within 30 days after HD, respectively. The cut-off points described may be used as a reference in the screening of hospitalized elderly vulnerable to adverse health events after hospital discharge.

Mediterranean climate is marked by arid climate conditions in summer, therefore, crop irrigation is crucial to sustain plant growth and productivity in this season. If groundwater is utilized for irrigation, an impressive water pumping is needed to satisfy crop water requirements at catchment scale. Consequently, irrigation water quality gets worse, specifically considering groundwater salinization near the coastal areas due to seawater intrusion, also triggering soil salinization. With reference to an agricultural coastal area in the Mediterranean basin (Southern Italy), close to the Adriatic sea, an assessment of soil salinization risk due to processing tomato cultivation was carried out. A simulation model was arranged to perform, on daily basis, a water and salt balance along the soil profile. Long-term weather data and soil physical parameters representative of the considered area were utilized in applying the model, also considering three salinity levels of irrigation water. Based on the climatic analysis performed and the model outputs, the probability of soil salinity came out very high, such as to seriously threaten tomato yield. Autumn-winter rainfall resulted frequently insufficient to leach excess salts away from the soil profile and reach sustainable conditions of tomato cultivation. Therefore, alternative cropping strategies were prospected.

Nutrition support is increasingly recognized as a clinically relevant aspect of the intensive care treatment of cardiac surgery patients. However, evidence from adequate large-scale studies evaluating its clinical significance for patients’ mid- to long-term outcome remains sparse. Considering nutrition support as a key component in the perioperative treatment of these critically ill patients, led us to review and discuss our understanding of the metabolic response to the inflammatory burst induced by cardiac surgery. In addition, we discuss how to identify patients who may benefit from nutrition therapy, when to start nutritional interventions, present evidence about the use of enteral and parenteral nutrition and the potential role of pharmaconutrition in cardiac surgery patients. Although the clinical setting of cardiac surgery provides advantages due to its scheduled insult and predictable inflammatory response, researchers and clinicians face lack of evidence and several limitations in the clinical routine, which are critically considered and discussed in this paper.

Background/Aim: Performing emergency surgery for bowel obstruction continues to place a significant strain on the healthcare system. Conventional assessment methods for outcomes in bowel obstruction cases often concentrate on isolated factors, and the evaluation of results for individuals with bowel obstruction remains poorly studied. This study aimed to examine the risk factors associated with major postoperative complications. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 99 patients undergoing surgery from 2015 to 2022. We divided the patients into two groups: 1) benign related obstruction (n=68), 2) cancer related obstruction (n=31). We used logistic regression, KNN and XGBOOST. We calculated the receiver operating characteristic curve, and accuracy of the model. Results: Colon obstructions were more frequent in the cancer group (p=0.005). Operative time, intestinal resection and stoma were significantly more frequent in the cancer group. Major complications were 41% for the cancer group vs. 20 in the benign group (p=0.03). Uni-and multivariate analysis shows that significant risk factors for major complication were cancer related obstruction and CRP. The best model was KNN with an accuracy of 0.82. Conclusion. Colonic obstruction is associated with a tumor-related blockage. Malignant cancer and an increase in C-reactive protein (CRP) are significant risk factors for patients who have undergone emergency surgery due to major complications. KNN could improve the process of counseling and the perioperative management of patients with intestinal obstruction in emergency settings.

This article presents a low-cost insurance system developed for small-hold farms in disaster-prone regions, primarily using free Earth Observation (EO) data and Free Open Source Software (FOSS) – collectively termed sustainable geoinformatics - with a proprietary mobile phone app that enables verification. The study examined 30 farms in Risaralda department, Colombia. A Digital Elevation Model (12.5m pixels) from the ALOS PALSAR satellite sensor was used with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to map the terrain, drainage and geohazards of each farming district. Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used to carry out Time Series Analysis of 15 EO and weather datasets for 1998 to 2020. This analysis enabled the levels of risk from hydrometeorological hazards to be determined for each farm of the study, providing key data for the setting of insurance premiums. A parametric insurance product was piloted using GPS-tagged, time-stamped mobile phone photos to verify crop health. Key features of this insurance system are its low operational cost and rapid damage verification, relative to conventional approaches to farm insurance. It is an affordable form of insurance for small-scale farmers, with the rapid verification and payment of claims. This relatively fast, low-cost and affordable approach to insurance for small-scale farming enhances sustainable development by enabling policy-holder farmers to recover more quickly from disasters.

The permanent protection of groundwater and surface sources of drinking water in the required raw water quality from contamination is the primary foundation of preserving the life of society and the entire engineering infrastructure operability not only in the Czech Republic but also in other countries of the world. One of the basic ways of contamination prevention enhancement and risk mitigation of putting a water source out of operation is the identification of the given risk as well as soil contamination monitoring. The purpose of this study is to understand specific aspects of contamination threats to drinking water sources and determine possible solutions to eliminate the risk, shown in the example case study in the Czech Republic conditions. Based on the findings, a proposal to enhance the prevention of water source contamination has been elaborated in the form of recommendations regarding the ways and means used to monitor the risk areas and to implement technical measures so as to eliminate or terminate the specified risk. A complex approach based on the integration of interdisciplinary factors and methodology is required to minimize the threats of aquatic ecosystems contamination in the Czech Republic.

Covid-19 is an airborne disease, with the vast majority of infections occurring indoors. By comparison, little transmission occurs outdoors. Here, we investigate the airborne transmission pathways that differentiate the indoors from outdoors, and conclude that profound differences exist, which help to explain why SARS-CoV-2 transmission is much more prevalent indoors. Near and far-field transmission pathways are discussed along with factors that affect infection risk, with aerosol concentration, air entrainment, thermal plumes, and occupancy duration all identified as being influential. In particular, we present the fundamental equations that underpin the Wells-Riley model, and show the mathematical relationship between inhaled virus particles and quanta of infection. A simple model is also presented for assessing infection risk in spaces with incomplete air mixing. Transmission risk is assessed in terms of aerosol concentration using simple 1D equations, followed by a description of thermal plume-ceiling interactions. With respect to this, we present new experimental results using Schlieren-visualisation and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based on the Eulerian-Lagrangian approach. Pathways of airborne infection are discussed, with the key differences identified between indoors and outdoors. In particular, the contribution of thermal and exhalation plumes is evaluated, and the presence of near-field/far-field feedback loop postulated, which is absent outdoors.

This study explores the complexities of risk communication practices in orthodontics, specifically examining the perspectives of orthodontists in Greece and Slovakia. Informed by the foundational importance of effective communication in health sciences, particularly in facilitating valid consent and shared decision-making, this research addresses gaps identified in the literature concerning the consistent communication of potential treatment risks based on demographic and cultural characteristics. The study identifies 15 potential critical risks with orthodontic treatment. These risks include root necrosis; temporary undesired changes to the occlusion; sleep difficulties; not achieving an ideal result; development of black triangles between teeth; taking additional X-rays; speech difficulties; using a protective splint during sports; duration of treatment; number of visits; transmission of infectious diseases; and swallowing orthodontic appliances. The questionnaire, distributed electronically to orthodontists in Greece (n=570) and Slovakia (n=210) from Sept. 2022 to Dec. 2022, aimed to assess risk communication practices, with consideration to country, gender, and degree-related variations. 168 valid questionnaires (91 from Slovakia and 77 from Greece) were obtained indicating significant disparities in the risks emphasized and preferred forms of consent. The Greek orthodontists focused more on the risks involved such as on relapse, root resorption, temporal occlusal changes, and failure of desired movement, while the Slovak practitioners tend to be interested more about sleeping difficulties, temporal occlusal changes and not achieving an ideal result. They also tend to obtain written or digital consent from patients or their parents/guardians more frequently than the Greek team. Male orthodontists discussed specific risks more frequently, including relapse and extractions, whereas females preferred written or digital consent. PhD-trained orthodontists prioritized certain risks, indicating the need for tailored approaches. This study underscores the dynamic nature of risk assessment in orthodontic practice, emphasizing its ethical and strategic dimensions. The findings advocate for tailored risk communication strategies, that recognize individual, contextual, and cultural factors and the need of an orthodontic informed consent protocol for tailored communication approach for patients to elevate the standard of care in European orthodontics. The reliance on digital tools reflects contemporary trends in enhancing patient understanding, thereby supporting ongoing innovation in orthodontic practices.

Background: we aim to investigate attitudes toward vaccination, by analyzing empirical factors associated with vaccine acceptance in the Lazio region mpox vaccination (MpoxVax) campaign in Italy. Methods: all subjects who accessed to MpoxVax and signed the informed consent were prospectively enrolled in the MPOX-VAC Study and were asked to fill out an anonymous survey. Two endpoints were selected: ‘delayed acceptance’ and ‘early acceptance’, defined as access for vaccination >60 and ≤30 days from the vaccination campaign starting (VCS), respectively. Results: over the study period 1717 individuals underwent vaccination: 129 (7%) >60 [1588 (92.5%) ≤60] and 676 (60%) ≤30 days from VCS. A bisexual orientation, a lower education level and a worse perceived physical and mental health were associated with delayed access to vaccination. Being Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) users and, marginally, HIV positive, having a high perceived risk for mpox infection and reporting high-risk behaviors like the use of recreational drugs/chems, sex under the influence of drugs and/or alcohol and higher number of principal sexual partners, were associated with early access to vaccination. Conclusions: according to our data, risk awareness was a major determinant of early mpox vaccination acceptance. Conversely, worse perceived health status and a low educational level were critical factors associated with delayed vaccination.

The interrelatedness of social-structural aspects and psychological features with the vaccination intention provides the context to explore personal psychological fea-tures related to general decision-making and vaccine-related dispositions, and their contribution to the intention to vaccinate, within post-pandemic circumstances, after the imposed possibility of choosing a vaccine brand. The aim of our study was to map the function (promotive, protective, risk, vulnerability) of a set of psychological aspects in the intention to vaccinate, in people with different social roles regarding the vaccination. We surveyed three samples of people: healthcare providers (HPs), parents, and lay people, within the context of the after-pandemic. Negative vaccine attitudes lower intention to vaccinate in all regression models (all βs ranging from -.128 to -.983, all ps < .01). The main results indicate that, regardless of the sam-ple/social role, there is a shared attitudinal core for positive vaccination intention. This core consists of [high] trust in large corporations, government, and healthcare systems, as well as perceived consensus on vaccine safety/efficacy and experience of freedom (protective factors), and [low] vaccination conspiracy beliefs, trust in social media, and choice overload (risk and vulnerability factors, respectively). There are no common promotive factors of intention to vaccinate; for parents, perceived consensus on vaccines, and trust in corporations and the healthcare system play such roles, for HPs experience of freedom is obtained as a unique promotive factor. In contrast, for laypeople, no unique promotive factors were found. These results and guidelines for the promotion of positive vaccination behavior are further discussed.

This paper presents a limited scope dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (D-PRA) on the survivability of commercial of the shelf (COTS) drones tasked with surveilling areas with varying radiation levels after a nuclear accident. The D-PRA is based on a discrete-dynamic event tree (D-DET) approach, which couples with the OpenEPL error propagation framework to model sequences leading to Loss of Mission (LOM) scenarios due to component failures in the drone’s navigation system. Radiation effects are simulated by calculating the total ionizing dose (TID) against the permissible limit per component, and errors are propagated within the electronic hardware and software blocks to quantify navigation system availability per radiation zone. The proposed methods are integrated into the traditional event tree/fault tree approach and the most vulnerable components are radiation-hardened (RAD-HARD) to the extent specified by a predefined mission success criterion. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach in performing trade studies for incorporating COTS components into RAD-HARD drone designs.

Manufacturing corporations has the acceptance of the Outsourcing Process (OP) to improve industrial activities as well as to archive the revenue objectives, and with this, Risk Analysis (RA) tools are constantly used to assure expected results. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is one of preferred RA tools, moreover, it is proven that FMEA adds uncertainty because of the human participation at the RA, afterward it is demonstrated that Pythagorean Fuzzy Dimensional Analysis – FMEA – Value Stream Mapping (PFDA-FMEA-VSM) method removes the uncertainty in RA, likewise it aids to the stakeholders for decision making, giving more advantages improving the use of the resources on the project. This document exhibits a real case scenario in a manufacturing firm applying PFDA-FMEA-VSM method adapted for manufacturing OP. The application of PFDA-FMEA-VSM shows solid RA results, removing the human intervention uncertainty added to the risk ranking, gives advantages to the stakeholders for visualize the main risks in detailed diagram, as well as make easier to take better decisions on where to apply resources and mitigate risks during OP.

Background: Only few studies have studied the link between risk perception and sleep in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the effect of two distinct risk appraisals—risk perception and perception of collective coordinated defense (PCCD) on Chinese adults’ sleep quality during the COVID-19 pandemic, and tested COVID-19-related fear and rumination as potential mediators of the relationships. Methods: Data were collected using a self-report online questionnaire from a sample of 224 Chinese adults during the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong. Results: COVID-19 risk perception and PCCD were related to poor sleep quality. Mediation analysis showed that both fear and rumination mediated the relationship between risk perception and sleep quality, whereas only fear mediated the relationship between PCCD and sleep quality. The model showed an excellent fit to the data and accounted for 44% of the variance in sleep quality in Chinese adults. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the distinct perceptual processes—risk appraisals in particular—contributed to poor sleep quality in Chinese adults during the COVID-19 public emergencies. These findings would be helpful for policy makers to address the sleep problems induced by psychological consequences of the pandemic.

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is associated with a high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular (CV) disease. Contributing pathophysiologic factors include endothelial dysfunction caused by excessive production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), increased activity of nuclear factor kB (NFkB), altered macrophage polarization, and reduced synthesis of endothelial progenitor cells (EPC). Consequently, there can be a potentially rapid progression of the atherosclerotic disease with a higher propensity to unstable plaque, leading to increased cardiovascular mortality. Management is aimed at prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment of hyperglycemia and vascular complications. Innovative therapeutic approaches for T2DM seek to customize the antidiabetic treatment to each patient in order to optimize glucose-lowering effects, minimize hypoglycemia and adverse effects, and prevent cardiovascular events. The newer drugs (Glucagon Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists, GLP-1 RAs; Sodium GLucose coTransporter-2 inhibitors, SGLT2is; DiPeptidyl Peptidase-4 inhibitors, DPP4is) impact body weight, lipid parameters, and blood pressure, as well as endothelial function, inflammatory markers, markers of oxidative stress, and subclinical atherosclerosis. The present review summarizes the results of trials that evaluated the cardiovascular safety of these drugs and found them to be safe from the CV standpoint.

The number of individuals meeting criteria for genetic counseling and testing for hereditary cancer syndromes (HCS) is far less than the number that actually receive it. To facilitate identification of patients at risk for HCS, Counsyl developed a digital identification tool (digital ID tool) to match personal and family cancer history to National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) BRCA-related Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC), Lynch syndrome, and polyposis testing criteria in one-to-one, automated fashion. The purpose of this study was to validate the ability of the digital ID tool to accurately identify histories that do and do not meet NCCN testing criteria. Methods: Third-party recorded three-generation pedigrees were retrospectively reviewed by a certified genetic counselor (CGC) to determine if independent events included in pedigree histories met NCCN guidelines, and were then sorted into groups: high risk events (meets criteria) and low risk events (does not meet criteria). Events were entered into the digital ID tool to determine the extent of its concordance with events sorted by CGC review. Statistical tests of accuracy were calculated at a 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: 197 pedigrees were reviewed consecutively representing 765 independent events for analysis across groups. 382/382 (100%) high risk events identified by the digital ID tool and 381/383 (99.47%) low risk events identified by the digital ID tool were concordant with CGC sorting. The digital ID tool had a sensitivity of 100% (99.04-100% CI) and specificity of 99.48% (98.13-99.94% CI). The overall accuracy of the digital ID tool was estimated to be 99.74% (99.06-99.97% CI), reflecting the rate at which the digital ID tool reached the same conclusion as that of CGC review of pedigree events for the recommendation of genetic testing for individuals at risk for HCS. Conclusions: The digital ID tool accurately matches NCCN criteria in one-to-one fashion to identify at-risk individuals for HCS and may be useful in clinical practice, specifically for BRCA-related HBOC and Lynch Syndrome.

This pioneering study explores the geospatial and temporal patterns of natural and human-induced disasters from 1900 to 2024, providing essential insights into their global distribution and impacts. Utilizing the comprehensive international EM-DAT database, our analysis reveals significant trends and disparities in disaster occurrences and their widespread consequences. Results showed a dramatic escalation in both natural and man-made (technological) disasters over the decades, with notable surges in the 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 periods. A total of 25,836 disasters were recorded worldwide, of which 69.41% were natural disasters (16,567) and 30.59% were man-made (technological) disasters (9,269). The most significant increase in natural disasters occurred from 1961-1970, while man-made (technological) disasters surged substantially from 1981-1990. Seasonal trends reveal that floods peak in January and July, while storms are most frequent in June and October. Droughts and floods are the most devastating in terms of human lives, while storms and earthquakes cause the highest economic losses. The most substantial economic losses were reported during the 2001-2010 period, driven by catastrophic natural disasters in Asia and North America. Our research highlights Asia as the most disaster-prone continent, accounting for 41.75% of global events, with natural disasters making up 61.89% of these events. Oceania, despite experiencing fewer total disasters, shows a remarkable 91.51% of these as natural disasters. Africa is notable for its high incidence of man-made (technological) disasters, which constitute 43.79% of the continent's disaster events. Europe, representing 11.96% of total disasters, exhibits a balanced distribution but tends towards natural disasters at 64.54%. Examining specific countries, China, India, and the United States emerged as the most frequently affected by both natural and man-made (technological) disasters. The impact of these disasters has been immense, with economic losses reaching their highest during the decade of 2010-2020, largely due to natural disasters. The human toll has been equally significant, with Asia recording the most fatalities and Africa the most injuries. Particularly, the decade from 2001 to 2010 experienced the greatest economic losses, primarily driven by natural disasters in Asia and North America. These insights highlight the urgent need for tailored disaster risk management strategies that address the distinct challenges and impacts in various regions. By understanding historical disaster patterns, policymakers and stakeholders can better anticipate and manage future risks, ultimately safeguarding lives and economies.

The coexistence of SAH with T2DM is a common comorbidity. In this present study, we investigated the link between altered plasma antioxidant trace elements (ATE: Manganese, Selenium, Zinc and Copper) and fatty acids ratio (FAR: polyunsaturated/saturated) imbalance as transition biomarkers between vascular pathology (SAH) to metabolic pathology (T2DM). Our data revealed strong correlation between plasma ATE and FAR profile which is modified during SAH-T2DM association compared to healthy group. This relationship is mediated by lipotoxicity (simultaneously prominent visceral adipose tissue lipolysis, significant flow of non-esterified free fatty acids release, TG-Chol-dyslipidemia, high association of Total SFA, Palmitic acid, Arachidonic acid and PUFA 6/ PUFA 3; drop in tandem of PUFA / SFA and EPA+DHA); oxidative stress (lipid peroxidation confirmed by TAS depletion and MDA raise, concurrently drop of Zn/Cu-SOD, GPx, GSH, Se, Zn, Se/Mn, Zn/Cu; concomitantly enhance Cu, Mn and Fe); endothelial dysfunction (endotheline-1 increase); athero-thrombogenesis risk (concomitantly raise of ApoB100/ApoA1, Ox-LDL, tHcy and Lp(a)) and inflammation (higher of Hs-CRP, Fibrinogen and Ferritin). Our study open to new therapeutic targets and to better dietary management, such as to establish dietary ATE and PUFA 6 / PUFA 3 or PUFA / SFA reference values for atherosclerotic risk prevention in hypertensive-diabetics patients.

Supplier Relationship Management (SRM) is a critical aspect of supply chain management, particularly in today's dynamic and interconnected business environment. This qualitative research study explores SRM practices within the context of supply chain dynamics, aiming to understand how organizations manage their supplier relationships to achieve strategic objectives. Through semi-structured interviews, document analysis, and participant observation, key themes emerge, including collaboration, trust, risk management, performance measurement, digital technology integration, sustainability, cultural alignment, supplier development, strategic alignment, emotional intelligence, and marketing perspectives. The findings underscore the importance of collaboration and trust in fostering strategic partnerships with suppliers, mitigating risks, and enhancing supply chain resilience. Effective risk management practices, performance measurement systems, and digital technology integration are essential for improving transparency, efficiency, and responsiveness in SRM. Sustainability considerations highlight the need for aligning SRM practices with corporate social responsibility goals and stakeholder expectations. Cultural alignment, supplier development programs, strategic alignment, emotional intelligence, and marketing perspectives further enrich the understanding of how organizations navigate their supplier relationships. This study contributes to the body of knowledge on SRM by providing empirical insights into the practices, challenges, and opportunities associated with managing supplier relationships in dynamic supply chains. The findings offer valuable guidance for practitioners and policymakers seeking to enhance their SRM practices and achieve competitive advantage in today's complex business landscape.

In this article, we combine datasets from multiple research projects and remote sensing tech-nologies to evaluate the conservation conditions of La Fortaleza de Kuelap, a pre-Hispanic monument in Peru’s northeastern Andes that suffered significant damage during historically high seasonal rains in April 2022. Our analyses seek to identify the main causes of the collapse and locate places where the monument is likely at risk of further deterioration. To do so, we model surface hydrology using a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from drone LiDAR data, re-construct a history of previous collapses, and calculate the volume of the most recent by fusing terrestrial LiDAR and photogrammetric datasets. In addition, we examine subsurface water ac-cumulation through electrical resistivity data, reconstruct the stratification of the monument from seismic refraction data, and analyze vegetation loss and ground moisture accumulation using high resolution satellite imagery. Our results point to water accumulation as the most significant source of risk for La Fortaleza’s perimeter walls. Combined with adverse contemporary conser-vation interventions and natural conditions, this led to the collapse of April 2022. This integration of analytical results demonstrates how multi-scalar and multi-instrumental approaches provide comprehensive and timely assessments of conservation needs.

The famous Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) takes into account only business risk. In practice, companies use debt financing and operate at non–zero levels of leverage. This means that it is necessary to take into account the financial risk associated with the use of debt financing along with business one. The purpose of this paper is to simultaneously take into account the business and financial risk. A new approach to CAPM has been developed that takes into account both business and financial risk. We combine the theory of CAPM and the Modigliani–Miller (MM) theory. The first is based on portfolio analysis and accounting for business risks in relation to the market (or industry). The second one (the Modigliani–Miller (MM) theory) describes a specific company and takes into account the financial risks associated with the use of debt financing. The combination of these two different approaches makes it possible to take into account both types of risks: business and financial ones. We combine these two approaches analytically, while Hamada did it phenomenologically. Using the Modigliani–Miller (MM) theory, it is shown that the Hamada’s model, first model, used for this purpose half a century ago, is incorrect. In addition to the renormalization of the beta–coefficient, obtained in the Hamada model, two additional terms are found: the renormalized risk–free return and the term dependent on the cost of debt kd. A critical analysis of the Hamada model was carried out. The vast majority of listing companies use debt financing and are levered, and the Hamada model is not applicable to them in contrast to a new approach applicable to leveraged companies. Implemented a new approach to specific companies. A comparison of the results of the new approach with the results of the conventional CAPM is shown. Two versions of CAPM (market or industry) are considered.

The city administration of China planned numerous metro projects and more metros can hardly avoid undercrossing a bridge. While metro shield construction when undercrossing a bridge (MSCUB) is frequently located in complicated natural and social context, which made the construction process more susceptible to safety accidents. Therefore, it is crucial to look into safety risk of MSCUB. The paper identified the safety risk factors during SSCUR by using literature review and experts’ evaluation, proposed a novel safety risk assessment model by integrating CFA and FER, and then selected a project case to test the validity of the suggested model. Research results show that (a) a safety risk factors list of MSCUB was identified, including 4 first-level safety risks and 37 second-level safety risk factors; (b) the proposed safety risk assessment model can be used to measure the risk values of the overall worksite safety risk, the first-level safety risks and the safety risk factors of MSCUB; (c) environment-type safety risk and personnel-type safety risk have higher risk values when shield construction undercrossing a bridge; (d) when compared to worker-type safety risk, manager-type safety risk is the higher risk value. The research can enrich the theoretic knowledge of MSCUB safety risk assessment and provide references to safety managers for conducting scientific and effective safety management on the construction site when subway undercrossing a river.

This study aims to identify the model that best approximates the credit spread that should be fixed on debt instruments issued by both public and private companies, considering the particularities of the Mexican market. Five models were analyzed: Merton's [1], those proposed by Denzler et al., the one presented in this paper, which includes the conformable derivatives, taking as a reference the change of variable made by Morales-Bañuelos et al., and the Corporate Default Risk Model (DRSK) for Publics Firms of Bloomberg [4]. The required financial information was obtained from the Bloomberg platform, from which the probabilities of default, credit spreads, and credit ratings for each company in the sample under the model (DRSK) were extracted directly. Likewise, the program developed by Moody's K.M.V. was used to obtain the EDF (Expected Default Frequencies). It was concluded that the Modified Merton model approximates to a greater extent the credit spreads that fix on a prime rate on the loans granted to the Mexican non-financial companies.

The epistemology of the traditional risk assessment examined has a taxonomy based upon deterministic, behaviouristic and compatibilist methodologies which are likely driven by neo-liberal market related requirements for bigger, faster cheaper wind-turbines. Analysis of available risk assessments suggested that there is no conscious effort to deceive the reader although the intended audience is unclear. The language, and scoring mechanisms utilized indicates the presence of conformity bias, confirmation bias, and numerical inconsistency leading to data ossification. By reverse engineering risk assessment content, Pragmatic and Social Psychological aspects can be investigated, and the adequacy of the document can be evaluated using evidence-based models.

Patients with pT1 high-grade (HG) bladder cancer (BC) and a very high risk of progression might benefit from immediate radical cystectomy (RC), but this option remains controversial. Validation of a standardized method to evaluate the extent of lamina propria (LP) invasion (with recognized prognostic value) in transurethral resections (TURBT) specimens is still needed. The Rete Oncologica Lombarda (ROL) system showed a high predictive value for progression after TURBT in recent retrospective studies. Our aim was to validate ROL system on a large mono-institutional prospective series of primary urothelial carcinomas. From 2016 to 2020, we adopted ROL for all patients with pT1 HG BC on TURBT. We employed a 1.0-mm threshold to stratify tumors in ROL1 and ROL2. A total of 222 pT1HGBC were analyzed. Median age was 74 years, with male predominance (73.8%). ROL was feasible in all cases: 91 cases were ROL1 (41%) and 131 ROL2 (59%). At a median follow up of 26.9 months (IQR 13.8-40.6), we registered 80 recurrences and 40 progressions. ROL was a significant predictor of tumor progression at both univariable (HR 3.53; CI 95% 1.56 – 7.99; p&lt;0.01) and multivariable (HR 2.90; CI 95% 1.25 – 6.75; p=0.01) Cox regression analyses. At Kaplan-Meier estimates, ROL showed correlation with both PFS (p=0.0012) and RFS (p=0.0167). Our results confirmed the strong predictive value of ROL for progression on a large prospective series. We encourage the application of ROL for reporting the extent of LP invasion, substaging T1 HG BC, and improving risk tables for urological decision making.

Objectives To develop and validate a prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality among adult patients critically ill with COVID-19 in the UK. Design Observational cohort study. Setting 287 adult critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, of which 260 admitted at least one eligible patient. Participants 10,933 patients with confirmed COVID-19 of whom 10,401 were eligible (excluding 532 patients with a duration of critical care less than 24 hours and 1 patient with unknown 28-day outcome): 8,666 development (March-April 2020) and 1,735 temporal validation (May-August 2020). Main outcome measures 28-day in-hospital mortality from start of critical care. Results Two models were developed using 14 patient level predictors selected from 30 candidate predictors, with and without adjustment for calendar time. In the temporal validation data, the model discrimination was maintained (c index 0.78) but calibration was poor, particularly for the model not adjusted for calendar time (ratio of observed to predicted mortality 0.74 versus 0.88 for the model adjusted for calendar time). Conclusions We developed and validated a prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality for patients critically ill with COVID-19. Although absolute predictions were inaccurate due to changing outcomes, the models will support risk-adjustment in analyses and monitoring changes in risk-adjusted outcome over time.

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is characterized by motor deficits and a wide variety of non-motor symptoms. The age of onset, rate of disease progression and the precise profile of motor and non-motor symptoms display considerable individual variation. Neuropathologically, the loss of substantia nigra dopaminergic neurons is a key feature of PD. The vast majority of PD patients exhibit alpha-synuclein aggregates in several brain regions, but there is also great variability in the neuropathology between individuals. While the dopamine replacement therapies can reduce motor symptoms, current therapies do not modify the disease progression. Numerous clinical trials using a wide variety of approaches have failed to achieve disease modification. It has been suggested that the heterogeneity of PD is a major contributing factor to the failure of disease modification trials, and that it is unlikely that a single treatment will be effective in all patients. Precision medicine, using drugs designed to target the pathophysiology in a manner that is specific to each individual with PD, has been suggested as a way forward. PD patients can be stratified according to whether they carry one of the risk variants associated with elevated PD risk. In this review we assess current clinical trials targeting two enzymes, leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) and glucocerebrosidase (GBA), which are encoded by two most common PD risk genes. Because the details of the pathogenic processes coupled to the different LRRK2and GBA risk variants are not fully understood, we ask if these precision medicine-based intervention strategies will prove “precise“ or “personalized“ enough to modify the disease process in PD patients. We also consider at what phases of the disease that such strategies might be effective, in light of the genes being primarily associated with the risk of developing disease in the first place, and less clearly linked to the rate of disease progression. Finally, we critically evaluate the notion that therapies targeting LRRK2 and GBA might be relevant to a wider segment of PD patients, beyond those that actually carry risk variants of these genes.

In this work, the Pumped Storage Unit (PSU) is proposed to be integrated with wind-thermal generation system owned by a company whose aim is to maximize its profit through optimal self-scheduling of its units by finding the best bidding strategy in day-ahead energy market. The mathematical formulation of the scenario based unit-commitment and coordinated trading problem is formulated as a stochastic mixed integer linear program. The formulation takes into account several uncertain parameters; such as the wind power generation, energy market prices, and imbalances up/down prices. The expected total profit obtained from energy trading with and without coordinating pumped storage system (PSS) with thermal-wind generation system were compared, and a significant improvement in profit resulted from coordination was observed. Furthermore, coordination between PSS and wind-thermal generation improve the conditional value at risk (CVaR) which monitors the biding risk level.

Several cities are experiencing an increase in flood hazard and exposure, and consequentially in flood risk, attributable to the coupled effect of climate change and urbanization. Non-structural protection strategies demonstrate significant potential in the short term for mitigating hydraulic risk in urban areas, particularly where the implementation of structural measures is impeded by a complex urban environment. This work proposes an Early Warning System (EWS) for fluvial floods developed for the city of Palermo (Italy). It is based on the preliminary definition of po-tential Flood Event Scenarios (FESs) as a function of typical potential precursors. Each FES pre-dicts first points of flooding, flood areas and water depths, also providing specific hazard maps for people, vehicles, and buildings. The EWS uses rainfall depth-duration thresholds to assess the expected hydrograph as a function of rainfall forecasts and the water stage observed in real time at an upstream section of the river crossing the city. This last also allows for estimating the ante-cedent wetness conditions. Based on this information, the EWS retrieves an expected FES from a pre-built library with a preannouncement time up to 36 h. The EWS is here successfully tested on a historical flood event.

This study investigated subclinical atherosclerosis progression in low-risk, middle-aged adults (N=141; mean age 49.6±4.7 years) using a 5-year ultrasound follow-up. We compared in-volvement of the carotid and femoral arteries. Methods: Clinical data, risk factors, and carotid/femoral intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaque presence were analyzed. Results: Cardiovascular risk factors and scores increased significantly at follow-up. Both carotid and femoral IMT increased (p&lt;0.001) but remained within the normal range. While plaque prev-alence rose and was similar in both arteries (carotid: 4.8% to 17.9%, femoral: 3.6% to 17.7%, p&lt;0.001 for both), the progression of plaque burden was greater in femorals. Notably, carotid IMT demonstrated a faster yearly progression rate compared to femoral IMT. The age- and sex-adjusted increase in IMT was also more frequent in the carotids (52.9% to 78.8%, p&lt;0.001) compared to femorals (23.2% to 44.7%, p&lt;0.001). Conclusions: This study demonstrates significant subclinical atherosclerosis progression in low-risk middle-aged adults during 5 years. Carotid arteries showed a faster progression rate and higher prevalence of increased age- and sex-adjusted IMT compared to the femoral arteries. However, plaque burden was similar in both territories, with greater progression in femorals. Identifying carotid and femoral atherosclerosis burden may be a valuable tool for risk stratification in this population.

We investigated and quantified bacterial accumulation in facemasks used by the general population, using 16S rRNA (Sanger Sequencing), culture and biochemical analysis along with Rose Bengal staining. Additionally, a systematic overview of the literature on face mask contamination was undertaken. We found an average bacterial load of 4.24 × 10⁴ CFU recovered/mask, with a maximum load of 2.85 × 10⁵ CFU. This maximum is 310 times higher than the limit value for contamination of ventilation system outlet surfaces specified by the German standard VDI 6022. Biochemical and molecular identification predominantly found Staphylococcus species (80%), including Staphylococcus aureus, along with endospore-forming Bacillus spp. Literature reports also indicate contamination of masks by bacterial and fungal opportunists of the genera Acinetobacter, Aspergillus, Alternaria, Bacillus, Cadosporium, Candida, Escherichia, Enterobacter, Enterococcus, Klebsiella (including K. pneumoniae), Micrococcus, Microsporum, Mucor, Pseudomonas, Staphylococcus and Streptococcus. Bacterial counts increase linearly with wearing duration, and prolonged use may affect the skin and respiratory microbiomes, promoting consequential eye, skin, oral and airway conditions. These aspects underscore the urgent need for further research and a risk-benefit analysis in respect of mask use, particularly given their unproven efficacy in disrupting the transmission of respiratory viruses and their adverse social consequences.

The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 reveals an increasing prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) from 1990 to 2019. This study delves into the role of dietary risk factors across different demographic and socioeconomic groups. Utilizing data from the GBD 2019, it analyzes age-adjusted T2DM metrics—death counts, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Age-Standardized Rates (ASR)—stratified by age, sex, and region. The study employed Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) to track trends over time. Results show that in 2019, 26.07% of T2DM mortality and 27.08% of T2DM DALYs were attributable to poor diets, particularly those low in fruits and high in red and processed meats. Geographic variations in T2DM trends were significant, with regions like Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia experiencing the most substantial increases in Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) and Age-Standardized DALY Rate (ASDR). A positive correlation was noted between Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and T2DM burden due to dietary risk factors. The study concludes that targeted public health initiatives promoting dietary changes could substantially reduce the global T2DM burden.

The electronic cigarette or e-cigarette is the new alternative method to deliver nicotine. In 2007, the United States introduced vaping devices on the market. Due to their attractive taste and lack of adverse effects, these vaping devices have gained popularity among youth and adults. However, there has been increasing evidence that vaping can cause severe lung injury, and these devices release toxic chemicals into the body. E-cigarettes are recognized as a global threat to public health. Nicotine, the most prevalent chemical in vaping devices, is associated with neurological problems and cognitive decline. Long-term use of e-cigarettes can cause adverse health problems, including respiratory illnesses, asthma, bronchitis, and lung inflammation. In 2019, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) officially declared vaping-associated illness EVALI (e-cigarette or Vaping Product Associated Lung Injury). The US Surgeon General published an alarm in December 2016 that e-cigarette consumption among adolescents and teens in the US is a "major public health concern" and that more young people are now vaping than smoking traditional cigarettes and cigars. Since its commercial introduction in 2003, modern electronic cigarettes (or E-cigarette s) have become increasingly popular with smokers, non-smokers, and those who used to smoke who have switched to them. With such a rise in consumption, people are becoming more aware of the irritating, harmful, and perhaps cancer-causing effects on the lungs. (Chadi et al., 2019; Dinardo & Rome, 2019; Lyzwinski et al., 2022; Marrocco et al., 2022; O’Callaghan et al., 2022)

The current methods for lightning risk warnings that are based on atmospheric electric field (AEF) data have a tendency to rely on single features, which results in low robustness and efficiency. Additionally, there is a lack of research on cancelling warning signals, contributing to the high false alarm rate (FAR) of these methods. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a lightning risk warning method that incorporates enhanced empirical Wavelet transform-Adaptive Savitzky Gorey filter (EEWT-ASG) and one-dimensional morphology, using time-frequency domain features obtained through the Wavelet transform (WT). The proposed method achieved a probability of detection (POD) of 77.11%, miss alarm rate (MAR) of 22.89%, FAR of 40.19%, and critical success index (CSI) of 0.51, as evaluated on 83 lightning processes. This method can issue a warning signal up to 22 minutes in advance for lightning processes.

Background: Macrophage inflammatory protein-1 alpha (MIP-1α) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are pro-inflammatory biomarkers that quantify clinical and subclinical inflammation in cardiac ischemia in cardiac inflammation and disease. Adiponectin is an anti-inflammatory marker associated with good health. The susceptibility of periodontitis patients to cardiovascular events needs to be evaluated. Objective: This study aims to assess the levels of biomarkers in periodontitis patients with and without acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared to controls. Material and methods: Pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory analytes were examined by collecting unstimulated saliva from three groups (n = 20/each): healthy individuals, individuals with stage III periodontitis, and post-myocardial infarction patients with stage III periodontitis. The samples were collected within 48 hours of AMI. Results: Adiponectin levels were significantly lower in patients with periodontitis with and without AMI compared to controls, while CRP and MIP-1α were significantly higher in patients with periodontitis with and without AMI compared to controls. The highest titers for MIP-1α and CRP were detected among patients with periodontitis with and AMI. Conclusion: Our study provides evidence of the association between periodontitis and salivary analytes that occur in tandem with cardiovascular disease. The lower levels of Adiponectin and higher levels of CRP and MIP-1α in patients with periodontitis indicate that this condition is a potential risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The findings emphasize the importance of early detection and intervention for periodontitis patients to prevent cardiovascular events.

The paper discusses how joint damage and deterioration affect the seismic response of existing reinforced concrete frames with sub-standard beam-column joints. The available simplified modeling techniques are critically reviewed to propose a robust, yet computationally efficient technique for simulating the nonlinear behavior of substandard beam-column joints. Improvements over the existing models include simulation of the cyclic deterioration of joint stiffness and strength as well as pinching in the hysteretic response, implemented considering a deteriorating hysteretic rule. A fibre-section forced-based inelastic beam-column element is developed; considering improved material models and fixed-end rotation due to bond failure, rebars-slip and inelastic extension, to simulate the deteriorating cyclic behavior of existing pre-cracked beam-column members. For the assessment of frames with substandard exterior beam-column joints, a nonlinear model for the exterior joint is developed and validated through a full-scale quasi-static cyclic test performed on a substandard T-joint connection. The proposed model allows considering structural performance in risk assessment while accounting for true inelastic mechanisms at the joints.

Lower respiratory infections (LRI), upper respiratory infections (URI), and nutritional deficiency (ND) in under-5 children from low-middle-income countries has been at a high level for decades, despite efforts that have been realized in some countries. The study used data extracted from the global burden of diseases (GBD) to analyze the trends behavior between 1990 and 2019, and evaluate their association with maternal factors. Between 1990 and 2019, the incidence of LRI decreased between 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent (1.2-1.3%) in different female age groups, and by nearly 1 to 1.3% in those of the male gender. The incidence of URI did not decrease (0.0%) in any of their age groups. ND incidence declined around 0.7 to 4.9% in the under-5 children. LRI declined mostly in the female age groups (1.2 to 1.3%), while ND decreased more in the male gender (0.9 to 4.9%). Maternal risk factors were strongly associated to the incidence of the three conditions with over 90 percent. Maternal prevalence of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis positively impacted the incidence of LRI, URI, and ND in Chadian under-5 children. Although the incidence of LRI and ND declined, URI incidence remained steady between 1990 and 2019 in Chadian under-5 children. To improve the health and provide a healthy growth of under-5 children, the maternal prevalence of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis infection should be strongly addressed for a prompt accomplishment of the sustainable development goals.

Lung cancer (LC) is the second most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer deaths in the U.S. Insulin therapy, a key treatment for managing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM), may increase LC risk. The impact of non-insulin antidiabetic drugs, particularly GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs), on LC risk is not well understood. This study evaluated LC risk in T2DM patients comparing seven non-insulin antidiabetic agents to insulin. Using the TriNetX Analytics platform, we analyzed de-identified electronic health records of 1,040,341 T2DM patients treated between 2005-2019, excluding those with prior antidiabetic use or LC diagnoses. We calculated hazard ratios and confidence intervals for LC risk and used propensity score matching to control for confounding factors. All non-insulin antidiabetic drugs, except alpha-glucosidase inhibitors, significantly reduced LC risk compared to insulin, with GLP-1RAs showing the greatest reduction (HR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.41, 0.59). GLP-1RAs were consistently associated with lowered LC risk across all histological types, races, genders, and smoking statuses. These findings suggest that non-insulin antidiabetic drugs, particularly GLP-1RAs, may be preferable for managing T2DM while reducing LC risk.

Confusion, fear and mixed sentiments prevail in the minds of people towards what is arguably one of the most important of dynamics of modern human society: Artificial Intelligence (AI). This study aims to explore the contributions of news media towards this phenomenon - we analyze nearly seventy thousand recent news headlines on AI, using natural language processing (NLP) informatics methods, machine learning (ML) and large language models (LLMs) to draw insights and discover dominant themes. Our theoretical framework was derived from extant literature which posits the power of fear producing articles and news headlines which produce significant impacts on public behavior even when available in small quantities. We applied extensive textual informatics methods using word and phrase frequency analytics, sentiment analysis and human experts based thematic analysis to discover insights on AI phobia inducing news headlines. Our rigorous analysis of nearly seventy thousand headlines using multiple validation methods in NLP (exploratory informatics including BERT, Llama 2 and Mistral based topic identification), ML (supervised informatics) and LLMs (neural nets for sentiment classification, with BERT, Llama 2 and Mistral) demonstrates the presence of an unreasonable level of emotional negativity and fear inducing verbiage in AI news headlines. The framing of AI as being dangerous or as being an existential threat to humanity can have a profound impact on public perception, and the resulting AI phobia and confusion in public perceptions are inherently detrimental to the science of AI. Furthermore, this can also impact AI policy and regulations, and harm society. We conclude with a discussion deducing implications for society and make recommendations for education and policies that could support human identity and dignity.

Cryptocurrencies have obtained a crucial position in the international financial landscape. The cryptocurrency market has been perceived as a highly volatile market since the inception of Bitcoin. This study investigates the relevant performance of extreme value models (EVM) in estimating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of Bitcoin and Ethereum returns. The extreme value mixture models, GPD-Normal-GPD (GNG) and GPD-KDE-GPD models are fitted to the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum and the Kupiec likelihood backtesting procedure is performed on the VaR estimates to assess the fits. Both models’ results showed that the fits were a much more decent representation of the observed data when compared to the Normal distribution. The backtesting results showed that the GPD-KDE-GPD model’s fit was superior to that of the GPD-Normal-GPD for both sets of returns at all VaR risk levels except at the 99% level. The results of this study may assist with understanding the dynamics and risks associated with cryptocurrencies and can serve as a beneficial tool for decision-making and risk management to investors, traders, financial institutions and many other participants in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Urbanization induced land use land cover (LULC) changes intensify the urban heat island effects. It magnifies the risk of urban dwellers and sometimes causes the loss of human life, defined as heat-related health risk (HRHR). Hence, urban LULC planning plays a crucial role. Present study analyses the impact of composition and configuration of urban LULC defined as urban landscape metric (ULM) on HRHR in Delhi at the ward level. Firstly, the HRHR is measured by using satellite thermal and other digital data. Then, measured HRHR is validated by conducting a rapid field survey. Thirdly, ULM measured at ward level using Fragstat 4 software. Finally, both, HRHR and ULM linked with bi-variate Moran's I and impacts of ULM are assessed using ordinary least square (OLS) and spatial error (SE) regression. The result indicates the high risk is found as clustered in north-east, central and middle of south-west Delhi. Built-up density intensifies HRHR and abundance of vegetation reduce it; however, it is not similar for all vegetation patches. Larger vegetation patches surrounded by dense built-up might not able to reduce the risk as much as a large vegetation patch could in other regions. Findings can be helpful for heat resilient city planning.

Retrogressive breach failures or coastal flow slides occur naturally in the shoreface in fine sands near dynamic tidal channels or rivers. They sometimes retrogress into beaches, shoal margins and river banks where they can threaten infrastructure and cause severe coastal erosion and flood risk. Ever since the first reports were published in the Netherlands over a century ago, attempts have been made to understand the geo-mechanical mechanism of flow slides. In this paper we have established that events, observed during the active phase, are characterized by a slow and steady retrogression into the shoreline, often continuing for many hours. This can be explained by the breaching mechanism, as elaborated in this paper. Recently, further evidence has become available in the form of video footage of active events in Australia and elsewhere, often publicly posted on the internet. All these observations justify the new term ‘retrogressive breach failure’ (RBF event). The mechanism has been confirmed in small-scale flume tests and in a large-scale field experiment. With a better understanding of the geo-mechanical mechanism, current protection methods can be better understood and new defense strategies can be envisaged. In writing this paper, we hope that the coastal science and engineering communities will better recognize and understand these intriguing natural events.

Ice formation on aircraft surfaces poses significant safety risks, and current detection systems often struggle to provide accurate, real-time predictions. This paper presents the development and comprehensive evaluation of a smart ice control system using a suite of machine learning models. The system utilizes various sensors to detect temperature anomalies and signal potential ice formation. We trained and tested supervised learning models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest), unsupervised learning models (K-means clustering), and neural networks (Multi-Layer Perceptron) to predict and identify ice formation patterns. Experimental results demonstrate that our smart system, driven by machine learning, accurately predicts ice formation in real-time, optimizes de-icing processes, and enhances safety while reducing power consumption. This solution holds the potential for improving ice detection accuracy in aviation and other critical industries requiring robust predictive maintenance.

Patients with Peripheral-artery-disease (PAD) are prone to risks of major-adverse-limb-events (MALE), and major-adverse-cardiovascular-events (MACE). CHA2DS2-VASc is a prognostic score for Atrial fibrillation stroke risk, however, no study exists that evaluated its predictability for MALE and MACE in PAD patients. In this study, patients with PAD were stratified into four risk groups based on CHA2DS2-VASc score. Cox-proportional hazards models,10-fold cross-validation and Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were utilized to evaluate the predictability of CHA2DS2-VASc for predicting MALE, MACE, and MALE+MACE. Kaplan-Meier analysis estimated the survival-probability of risk-groups. CHA2DS2-VASc was found to be a significant predictor of MACE (hazard ratio (95% confidence interval; P) = 3.47 (0.99 - 12.18; 0.052), 4.12 (1.19 - 14.14; 0.024), and 5.06 (1.48 – 17.28; 0.009), for moderate-, high- and very-high-risk groups, respectively, while for MALE and MALE+MACE significance was achieved only for high-risk group. MACE demonstrated AUC > 0.8, good-discrimination (c-index > 0.8) and good-calibration. However, MALE and MALE+MACE models failed to achieve good performances. Based on all findings, CHA2DS2-VASc could potentially serve as a risk stratification score for predicting MACE in patients with PAD but failed to qualify as a good predictor for MALE.

This paper introduces the AltumView Sentinare smart activity sensor for senior care and patient monitoring. The sensor uses an AI chip and deep learning algorithms to monitor the activity of people, collect activity statistics, and notify caregivers when emergencies such as falls are detected. To protect privacy, only skeleton (stick figure) animations are transmitted instead of videos. The sensor is highly affordable, accessible, and versatile. It was a CES 2021 Innovation Award Honoree, and has been selected by Amazon as one of only three fall detection devices integrated into its Alexa Together urgent response service, and has received very positive reviews from Amazon customers. It has also been used in different senior care settings in about ten different countries. The paper presents the main features of the system, the evidences and lessons learned from its practical applications, and future directions.

The increase in arrivals of new forest pests highlights the need for effective phytosanitary legislation and measures. This paper introduces legislation targeted at prevention and management of potential introductions of forest pests and pathogens. A summary is given on plant health regulations on a global and regional level with detailed information on the situation in the European Union (EU). The current and new European legislation is discussed and a particular focus is given on eradication and contingency plans for Fusarium circinatum.

Lynch syndrome (LS) is an inherited cancer predisposition disorder associated with an elevated risk of various epithelial cancers. Despite sharing the same pathogenic variant (PV), Lynch syn-drome variant heterozygotes (LSVH) exhibit considerable phenotypic variability in cancer risk. The role of Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) in modifying cancer risk prompted our investiga-tion into whether HLA variations act as genetic modifiers influencing age at cancer diagnosis in a unique cohort of LSVH carrying a PV in the hMLH1 gene in South Africa. Within our extensive LS cohort, 426 individuals carried the same hMLH1 PV (MLH1:c.1528C>T). We selected 100 indi-viduals with the greatest diversity in age at cancer diagnosis and the oldest unaffected individu-als for high-throughput HLA genotyping of 12 HLA class I and II loci using next-generation se-quencing. Statistical analyses employed Kaplan-Meier survival analyses with Logrank tests and Cox proportional hazards. Following the robust application of statistical correction methods, six HLA alleles (3.2%) were significantly associated with a young age at cancer diagnosis. Notably, HLA-B*15:17 and HLA-DPB1*55:01 correlated significantly with very young colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis (Mean age: 21y [17-25]; HR = 71.59; q

There is a growing concern about climate change being a serious threat to insurance business sustainability. Knowing if climate warming is a cause for claims and losses increase, and how this cause-effect relationship will develop in the future are two open major questions. In this article, we answer both questions by particularizing the geographical area of Spain, and a precise risk, hailstorm in crop insurance in the line of business of wine grapes. We measure climate change thanks to the Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We use a database containing all the claims caused by hail risk in Spain from 1990 to 2022. With homogenized data, we consider as dependent variables the monthly number of claims, monthly number of loss costs equal to one, and monthly total losses. The independent variable is the monthly Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We try to explain the former through the latter using regression and quantile regression models. Our main finding is that climate change as measured by SACI explains these three dependent variables. We also give an estimation of the increase of the monthly total losses Value at Risk, corresponding to a future increase in climate change measured in units of SACI. Spanish crop insurance managers should carefully incorporate these conclusions into their decision-making process to keep this line of business sustainable in the future.

Earth Observation (EO) techniques have significantly evolved over time, covering a wide range of applications in different domains. The scope of this study is to review the research conducted on EO in the Eastern Mediterranean, Middle East, and North Africa (EMMENA) region and to identify the main knowledge gaps. We searched through the Web of Science database for papers published between 2018 and 2022 for EO studies in the EMMENA. We categorized the papers in the following thematic areas: Atmosphere, Water, Agriculture, Land, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), Cultural Heritage, Energy, Marine Safety and Security (MSS) and Big Earth Data (BED); 6647 papers were found with the highest number of publications in the thematic areas of BED (27%) and Land (22%). Most of the EMMENA countries are surrounded by sea, yet there was a very small number of studies on MSS (0.9% of total number of papers). This study detected a gap in fundamental research in the BED thematic area. Other future needs identified by this study are the limited availability of very high resolution and near real time remote sensing data, the lack of harmonized methodologies and the need for further development of models, algorithms, early warning systems and services.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), locally known as Khaliji, is a group of six Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health concern in the GCC region, but the research that synthesized the trend has received scant attention. The present narrative review examines existing research on the prevalence and frequency of IPV among Khaliji women in GCC nations. This review synthesized studies on physical violence, sexual violence, emotional abuse, and controlling behaviors perpetrated by an intimate partner. The prevalence rates of IPV among Khaliji women are observed to be high: women reported facing different types of abuse from their partners, namely physical (7% - 71%), sexual (3.7% - 81%), financial (21.3% - 26%) and psychological (7.5% - 89%), which is a culmination of controlling behavior (36.8%), emotional (22% - 69%) and social violence (34%). The extant studies in the GCC suggest that the most endorsed IPV was psychological abuse (89%) followed by sexual violence (81%). Qualitative content analysis of the associated factors resulted in four meaningful descriptors such as demographics of the victim, sociocultural factors, socioeconomic, and perpetrator-related issues. The study on IPV is still nascent and few. The way forward will require developing culturally appropriate interventions that address unique risk factors for IPV among Khaliji populations, strengthening institutional responses, and increasing awareness and social support for the victim of IPV.

Following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several studies have examined the possibility of correlating the virulence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, to the climatic conditions of the involved sites; however, inconclusive results have been generally obtained. Although either air temperature or humidity cannot be independently correlated with virus viability, a strong relationship between SARS-CoV-2 virulence and the specific enthalpy of moist air appears to exist, as confirmed by extensive data analysis. Given this framework, the present study involves a detailed investigation based on the first 20–30 days of the epidemic before public health interventions in 30 selected Italian provinces with rather different climates, here assumed as being representative of what happened in the country from North to South, of the relationship between COVID-19 distributions and the climatic conditions recorded at each site before the pandemic outbreak. Accordingly, a correlating equation between the incidence rate of the pandemic and the average specific enthalpy of atmospheric air was developed, and an enthalpy-based seasonal virulence risk scale was proposed as a tool to predict the potential danger of COVID-19 spread due to the persistence of weather conditions favorable to SARS-CoV-2 viability. For practical applications, a conclusive risk chart expressed in terms of coupled temperatures and relative humidity (RH) values was provided, showing that safer conditions occur in case of higher RH at the highest temperatures, and of lower RH at the lowest temperatures. The proposed risk scale was in agreement with the available infectivity data in the literature for a number of cities around the world.

Background: Cervical cancer prevention in regions with limited access to screening and HPV vaccination necessitates innovative approaches. This study explored the potential of a test-and-treat strategy using mRNA HPV tests to impact cervical cancer prevention in a high-prevalence HIV population. Methods: A cervical screening study was conducted at three South African hospitals involving 710 under-screened, non-pregnant women (25 to 65 years) without known cervical diseases. Cytology, HPV testing, colposcopy, and biopsies were performed concurrently. Histopathologists determined final histological diagnoses based on biopsy and LLETZ histology. mRNA-HPV-genotyping for 3 (16, 18, 45) to 8 (16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, 58) high-risk types was performed on leftover liquid-based cytology material. The preventive potential of the test-and-treat approach was estimated based on published data, reporting the causative HPV types in cervical cancer tissue from South African women. Treatment was provided as needed. Results: HPV positivity rate more than doubled from 3-type (15.2%; 95% CI: 12.6-17.8) to 8-type mRNA (31.5%; 95% CI: 28.8-34.9) combinations, significantly higher among HIV-positive women. CIN3+ prevalence among HIV-positive women (26.4%) was double that of HIV-negative women (12.9%) (p&lt;0.01). The 6-type combination showed the best balance of sensitivity, specificity and treatment group size, and effectiveness to prevent cervical cancer. A 4-type combination (16, 18, 35, 45) could potentially prevent 77.6% (95% CI: 71.2-84.0) of cervical cancer burden by treating 20% and detecting 41.1% of CIN3 cases in the study group. Similarly, a 6-type combination (16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45), treating 25% and including 62% of CIN3 cases, might prevent 85% of cervical cancer cases (95% CI: 79.6-90.6) among HIV-positive and negative women. Conclusion: Employing mRNA HPV tests within a test-and-treat approach holds huge promise for targeted cervical cancer prevention in under-screened populations. Testing for mRNA of the 6 highest-risk HPV types in this population and treating them all is projected to effectively prevent progression from CIN3 to invasive cervical cancer while reducing overtreatment in resource-constrained settings.

One of the most burning topics in cybersecurity in 2023 will undoubtedly be the compliance with the Software Bill of Materials. Since the US president issued the Executive Order 14028 on Improving the Nation’s Cybersecurity, software developers have prepared and bills are transmitted to vendors, customers, and users, but they don’t know what to do with the reports they are getting. In addition, since software developers have identified the values of the Software Bill of Materials, they have been using the reports extensively. This article presents an estimate of 270 million requests per month, just from form one popular tool to one vulnerability index. This number is expected to double every year and a half. This simple estimate explains the urgency for automating the process. We propose solutions based on artificial intelligence and machine learning, and we base our tools on the existing FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable). This methodology is supported with a case study research and Grounded theory, for categorising data into axis, and for verifying the values of the tools with experts in the field. We showcase how to create, and share Vulnerability Exploitability eXchange data, and automate the Software Bill of Materials compliance process with AI models and a unified computational framework combining solutions for the following problems: (1) the data utilisation problem, (2) the automation and scaling problem, (3) the naming problem, (4) the alignment problem, (5) the pedigree, and provenance problem, and many other problems that are on the top of mind for many security engineers at present. The uptake of these findings will depend on collaborations with government and industry, and on the availability and the ease of use of automated tools.

Psychiatric disorders are mental, behavioral or emotional disorders. These conditions are prevalent, one in four adults suffer from any type of psychiatric disorders world-wide. It has always been observed that psychiatric disorders have a genetic component, however new methods to sequence full genomes of large cohorts have identified with high precision genetic risk loci for these conditions. Psychiatric disorders include, but are not limited to, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorder, anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, and attention-deficit and hyperactivity disorder. Several risk loci for psychiatric disorders fall within genes that encode for voltage-gated calcium channels (Ca_Vs). Calcium entering through Ca_Vs is key for multiple neuronal processes. In this review, we will summarize recent findings that link Ca_Vs and their auxiliary subunits to psychiatric disorders. First, we will provide a general overview of Ca_Vs structure, classification, function, expression and pharmacology. Next, we will summarize tools and databases to study risk loci associated with psychiatric disorders. We will examine functional studies of risk variations in Ca_V genes when available. We will review pharmacological evidence of the use of Ca_V modulators to treat psychiatric disorders. Our review will be of interest for those studying pathophysiological aspects of Ca_Vs.

Neuroblastoma (NB) is a solid tumor occurring in infancy and childhood, whose high-risk form has currently a survival rate &lt; 50 %, despite aggressive treatments. Additionally, drugs-induced secondary tumorigenesis and the emergency of drug resistance worsen the already worrying scenario, calling for an urgent development of new extra-genomic treatments. Quaternary phosphonium salts (QPSs) possess both antimicrobial and anticancer effects. Triphenyl phosphonium salts (TPPs) are mitochondria-targeting compounds, exerting anticancer effects, impairing mitochondria functions and damaging DNA, at the same time. TPP-based bola-amphiphiles, previously proven to self-assemble nanoparticles (NPs) in water and successfully assayed as possible antibacterials, were never tested as suitable antitumor agents. Here, aiming at the development of new antitumor devices to counteract resistant forms of NB, the anticancer effects of a TPP-based amphiphile molecule have been investigated for the first time. To this end, we considered the water-soluble sterically hindered quaternary phosphonium salt (BPPB) encompassing two triphenyl phosphonium groups linked by a C12 alkyl chain, thus embodying both the characteristics of mitochondria-targeting compounds and those of bola-amphiphiles. The anticancer effects of BPPB were assessed against HTLA-230 human stage-IV NB cells and their counterpart resistant to etoposide (ETO), doxorubicin (DOX) and to many other therapeutics (HTLA-ER). Determined IC50 values were very low on both cell populations, already after 24 hours of treatment, when cells viability did not significantly differ from that observed for the longest exposure timing. Moreover, to investigate a putative future inclusion of BPPB in a chemotherapeutic cocktail for NB, its cytotoxic effects were assessed against mammalian cell lines. These included monkey kidney cells (Cos-7), human hepatic cells (HepG2), a lung-derived fibroblast cell line (MRC-5) and red blood cells. From appreciable to very high selectivity indices have been determined after 24 hours treatments, an exposure time after which both NB cell populations tested appeared already fully exterminated.

This paper explores the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting trends in the fixed bond market, where traditional analytical methods have proven inadequate. Focusing on various ML techniques such as supervised and unsupervised learning, neural networks, and deep learning, the study evaluates their effectiveness in forecasting market movements. It details a series of experiments in which different ML models are rigorously trained and tested against historical bond market data. The findings reveal that models employing time series analysis and advanced deep learning show marked potential in accurately predicting bond market trends. Additionally, the paper delves into the challenges and limitations inherent in these ML approaches, including data requirements and the risk of model overfitting. Finally, it proposes directions for future research, emphasizing the integration of ML into broader financial market analysis.

Digital technologies have changed the way supply chain operations are structured. In this article, we conduct systematic syntheses of literature on the impact of new technologies on supply chains and the related cyber risks. A taxonomic/cladistic approach is used for the evaluations of progress in the area of supply chain integration in the Industrial Internet of Things and Industry 4.0, with a specific focus on the mitigation of cyber risks. An analytical framework is presented, based on a critical assessment with respect to issues related to new types of cyber risk and the integration of supply chains with new technologies. This paper identifies a dynamic and self-adapting supply chain system supported with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) and real-time intelligence for predictive cyber risk analytics. The system is integrated into a cognition engine that enables predictive cyber risk analytics with real-time intelligence from IoT networks at the edge. This enhances capacities and assist in the creation of a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and threats that arise when edge computing nodes are deployed, and when AI/ML technologies are migrated to the periphery of IoT networks.

Socio-ecologic, socio-economic, and socio-technical transitions are opportunities that require fundamental changes in the system. These will encounter matters associated with security, service adoption by end-users, infrastructure and availability. The purpose of this study is to examine and overcome the risks to take advantage of opportunities through the novel Risky-Opportunity Analysis Method (ROAM). A novel quantitative method is designed to determine when, after making some changes, the risks become acceptable so that the opportunity does not deviate from the objectives. The approach provided a quantitative evaluation of the possible changes in parallel with digitization, towards providing a green Service Supply Chain (SSC). The result of ROAM shows that the most cost-effective change to increase the resilience of the system is a solution (SMS) which is different from that identified by a TOPSIS multi-criteria method. Real-word decisions in change management should tackle the complexity of systems and uncertainty of events during and after transition through a careful analysis of the alternatives. A case-study was carried out to evaluate the alternatives of an ancillary service in the Payment Service Providers (PSP). The comparison of the ROAM results with the traditional TOPSIS of the case-study unveils the priority of the ROAM in practice when the alternatives are Risky-Opportunities. The existing risk assessment tools do not take advantage of risky opportunities. To this aim, the current article introduces the term Risky-Opportunity, and two indexes Stress and Strain of the alternatives that are designed to be employed in the new quantitative ROAM approach.

Gilbert's syndrome (GS) is a common hereditary condition characterized by mild increases in serum bilirubin levels due to inherited defects in bilirubin metabolism. This review, based on data from peer-reviewed articles and journals spanning from 1977 to January 2024, provides a comprehensive overview of over four decades of research on GS. Early studies primarily focused on defining the clinical and genetic characteristics of the syndrome, laying the foundation for subsequent investigations. More recent research has delved into the genetic mechanisms underlying the reduced expression of bilirubin UDP-glucuronosyltransferase, which has significantly enhanced our understanding of the pathogenesis of GS. Furthermore, recent studies have shed light on the clinical implications of GS, including its association with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and mortality risk, highlighting the complex interplay between genetic factors, bilirubin metabolism, and clinical outcomes. Despite its generally benign nature, thorough research is essential to fully understand the impact of GS on patients' lives. This review emphasizes the importance of ongoing research to deepen our understanding of GS and its broader implications.

Breast Cancer Associated Susceptibility Proteins Type 1/2 (BRCA1/2) promote cellular functioning by modulating NRF2-mediated antioxidant signaling. Redox failure in women with BRCA1/2 insufficiency increases the risk for breast/ovarian/uterine cancers. Risk‐reducing salpingo‐oophorectomy (RRSO) is a prophylactic surgery of the reproductive organs, which is frequently conducted by the age of 40 to lower the occurrence of cancer in women with BRCA1/2 mutations. However, abrupt estrogen decline following RRSO causes ovarian failure, which implicates various cellular physiological processes, resulting in increased release of free radicals and subsequent severe onset of menopausal symptoms. Comfort measures (e.g., hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) and mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR)) may improve chronological menopause-related quality of life, but their specific effects are not clear in women with gene mutations. Aiming to fill the gap, this study used path analysis to examine the effects of HRT and MBSR on menopausal symptoms among RRSO patients (N = 199, mean age = 50.5 ± 6.7 years). HRT alleviated menopausal symptoms in BRCA2 carriers and women who were physically active, premenopausal at the time of RRSO, had a high BMI, and had no history of breast cancer. It increased the severity of urogenital symptoms in those with a history of cancer. MBSR, on the other hand, was associated with increased intensity of most menopausal symptoms. The results suggest that young women undergoing recent RRSO may benefit from HRT at an individual level while their need for extensive measures to optimize their psychological wellbeing is ongoing. Adverse effects of MBSR, which are captured in the present study imply that MBSR may interfere with redox sensitivity associated with estradiol fluctuations in BRCA1/2 carriers. Investigations are needed to test this hypothesis and elaborate on the underlying mechanisms in those women.

This qualitative research explores Supplier Relationship Management (SRM) within the context of subscription-based e-commerce models. Through in-depth interviews and thematic analysis, the study investigates key elements such as trust, collaboration, technology integration, sustainability, risk management, cultural alignment, innovation, cost management, globalization, supplier selection, and performance measurement. Findings reveal that trust is foundational in fostering reliable interactions and open communication between e-commerce businesses and suppliers. Collaboration emerges as crucial for innovation and operational efficiency, facilitating co-development and shared risk management. Technology integration, including AI and blockchain, enhances supply chain visibility and decision-making capabilities. Sustainability considerations drive businesses to engage with suppliers adhering to environmental standards, enhancing brand reputation and consumer loyalty. Effective risk management strategies mitigate disruptions and ensure supply chain resilience. Cultural alignment fosters harmonious partnerships and mutual understanding across diverse global markets. Innovation through supplier collaboration drives product development and market responsiveness. Cost management practices optimize operational efficiency and strategic supplier relationships. Globalization necessitates adaptive strategies to manage diverse cultural and regulatory landscapes. Strategic supplier selection and continuous performance measurement drive ongoing improvement and alignment with business objectives. This study contributes empirical insights and practical implications for enhancing SRM in subscription-based e-commerce, informing strategies to navigate challenges and leverage opportunities in a competitive marketplace.

Backward electromagnetic waves are extraordinary waves with contra-directed phase velocity and energy flux. Unusual properties of the coherent nonlinear optical coupling of the phase-matched ordinary and backward electromagnetic waves with contra-directed energy fluxes are described which enable greatly-enhanced frequency and propagation direction conversion, parametrical amplification, as well as control of shape of the light pulses. Extraordinary transient processes that emerge in such metamaterials in pulsed regimes are described. The results of the numerical simulation of particular plasmonic metamaterials with hyperbolic dispersion are presented, which prove the possibility to match phases of such coupled guided ordinary and backward electromagnetic waves. Particular properties of the outlined processes in the proposed metamaterial are demonstrated through numerical simulations. Potential applications include ultra-miniature amplifiers, frequency changing reflectors, modulators, pulse shapers, and remotely actuated sensors.

Objective: The primary objective of this study was to develop a logistic regression model to predict post-operative in-hospital mortality rates for patients undergoing emergency cardiac surgeries, with the aim of improving predictive accuracy over traditional risk assessment tools and enhancing patient outcomes and clinical decision-making. Methods: Data were collected from 4,855 patients who underwent emergency cardiac surgeries at a tertiary hospital between 2008 and 2017. The analysis incorporated demographic, anthropomet- ric, and clinical factors, including the ASA classification, emergency status, and various preoperative laboratory values. A logistic regression model was developed, and the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index was calculated using standard ICD-10 codes for its comprehensive assessment of comorbidities. Model performance was evaluated using metrics such as AUROC, AUPRC, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. Results: The logistic regression model demonstrated strong predictive performance, with an AUROC of 0.939 and an AUPRC of 0.350. Key pre-operative factors identified included emergency operation status, ASA classification, and preoperative prothrombin time. The model significantly outperformed the traditional ASA classification system, which showed an AUROC of 0.524 and an AUPRC of 0.010. These findings suggest a substantial improvement in predicting post-operative mortality. Conclusion: The logistic regression model significantly improves the prediction of post-operative mortality in emergency cardiac surgeries compared to the ASA classification system. These findings highlight the potential of incorporating comprehensive pre-operative factors into predictive models to enhance clinical decision-making and patient outcomes. Implementing such models in routine clinical practice could lead to more accurate risk assessments, better resource allocation, and improved patient care.

There is a lot of pressures from organizations to continually redesign the business processes and the technology infrastructure to support the organization, but to also help organizations manage competing stakeholder needs, changing objectives and behaviour, and so on. A key part of this is making sure that all their activities in the different components of the business are interconnected and that they are moving in the same direction. Enterprise Architecture (EA) is an effective way of dealing with the challenge of designing business activities and supporting IT. This paper will summarize the organization of EA and look more closely at some major components of EA: governance architecture, business architecture, information architecture and technical architecture and consider the overlap and constructive interaction involved. Enterprise Architecture can be best understood through business process redesign. So, it is useful to briefly review the leading frameworks for business process redesign, including COBIT from ISACA, LEAN from the Toyota Group, TOGAF from the Object-Management Group, and the Capgemini Integrated Architecture Framework (IAF). All these frameworks allow us to more successful transformation, to return to the central idea of this paper.