The Capital Asset Pricing Model is a widely applied model to describe risky markets and to deduce their systematic risk. Its estimation, therefore, remains an important task in Econo-financial studies. Empirically, it focuses on the impact of return interval on the betas. Existing studies somehow turn around the same idea of measuring the value of the beta according to the uniform intervals of time during a fixed period. However, it is noticed easily, and especially in the last decade that many factors such as socio-political, and Econo-environmental ones have led to a perturbation in the timeline of the worldwide development, and especially in countries and regions having political changes. This led us to introduce a new idea of risk estimation taking into account the non-uniform changes in markets by introducing a non-uniform wavelet analysis. We aim to explain the Econo-political situation of Arab spring countries and the effect of the revolutions on the market beta. The main novelty is firstly the construction of a dynamic backward-forward model for missing data, and next the application of random non-uniform wavelets. The proposed procedure will be acted empirically on a sample corresponding to TUNINDEX stock as a representative index of the Tunisian market actively traded over the period January 14, 2016, to January 13, 2021. The chosen 5-years period is important as it constitutes the first 5-years-after the revolution and depends strongly on the Socio-Econo-political stability in the revolutionary countries.

While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.

Cold brew coffee is a new trend in coffee industry. This paper presents pilot studies into several aspect of this beverage. Using an online survey, the current practices of cold brew coffee preparation were investigated identifying a rather large variability with a preference for extraction of medium roasted Arabica coffee using 50-100 g/l at 8°C for about 1 day. Sensory testing using ranking and triangle tests showed that cold brew may be preferred over iced coffee (cooled down hot extracted coffee). Extraction experiments at different conditions combined with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) analysis showed that the usual extraction time may be longer than necessary as most compounds are extracted within only a few hours, while increasing turbulence (e.g. using ultrasonication) and temperature may additional increase the speed of extraction. NMR analysis also revealed a possible chemical differentiation between cold brew and hot brew using multivariate data analysis. Decreased extraction time and reduced storage times could be beneficial for cold brew product quality as microbiological analysis of commercial samples detected samples with spoilage organisms and contamination with Bacillus cereus.

In the last decades farm animals kept in confined and mechanically ventilated livestock buildings are increasingly confronted with heat stress (HS) due to global warming. These adverse conditions cause a depression of animal health and welfare and a reduction of the performance up to an increase of the mortality. To facilitate sound management decisions, livestock farmers need relevant arguments, which quantify the expected economic risk and the corresponding uncertainty. The economic risk was determined for the pig fattening sector based on the probability of HS and the calculated decrease in the gross margin. The model calculation for confined livestock buildings showed, that HS indices calculated by easily available meteorological parameters can be used for assessment quantification of indoor HS, which is so far difficult to determine. These weather-related HS indices can be applied not only for an economic risk assessment but also for a weather-index based insurance for livestock farms. Based on the temporal trend between 1981 and 2017, a simple model was derived to assess the likelihood of HS for 2020 and 2030. Due to global warming, the return period for a 90-percentile HS index is reduced from 10 years in 2020 to 3-4 years in 2030. The economic impact of HS on livestock farms was calculated by the relationship between an HS index based on the temperature-humidity index (THI) and the reduction of the gross margin. From the likelihood of the HS and this economic impact function, the probability of the economic risk could be determined. The reduction of the gross margin for a 10 year return period was determined for 1980 with 0.27 € per year and animal place and increased by the 20-fold to 5.13 € per year and animal place in 2030.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) outbreaks, caused by Mycobacterium bovis infection, are a costly animal health challenge. Understanding factors associated with the duration of outbreaks, known as breakdowns, could lead to better disease management policy development. We undertook a retrospective observational study (2012-2018) and employed Finite Mixture Models (FMM) to model the outcome parameter, and to investigate how factors were associated with duration for differing subpopulations identified. In addition to traditional risk factors (e.g. herd size, bTB history), we also explored farm geographic area, parcels/farm fragmentation, metrics of intensity via nitrogen loading, and whether herds were designated controlled beef finishing units (CBFU) as potential risk factors for increased duration. The final model fitted log-normal distributions, with two latent classes (k) which partitioned the population into a subpopulation around the central tendency of the distribution, and a second around the tails of the distribution. The latter subpopulation included longer breakdowns of policy interest. Increasing duration was positively associated with recent (<3 yrs) TB history and the number of reactors disclosed, (log) herd size, beef herd-type relative to other herd types, number of land parcels, area, and being designated a controlled finishing unit (“feedlot”), and having high annual inward cattle movements within the “tails” subpopulation. Breakdown length was negatively associated with year of commencement of breakdown (i.e. a decreasing trend) and non-significantly with the organic nitrogen produced on the farm (N kg/hectare), a measure of stocking density. The latter finding may be due to confounding effects with herd size and area. Most variables contributed only moderately to explaining variation in breakdown duration, that is, they had moderate size effects on duration. Herd-size and CBFU had greater effect sizes on the outcome. The findings contribute to evidence-based policy formation in Ireland.

Consistent data is seldom available for whole-catchment flood modelling in many developing regions, thus this study demonstrates how the complementary strengths of open and readily available geospatial datasets and tools can be leverage to map flood risk within acceptable levels of uncertainty for flood risk management. Available fragmented remotely-sensed and in situ datasets (including hydrological data, altimetry, digital elevation model, bathymetry, aerial photos, optical and radar imageries) are systematically integrated using 2-dimensional CAESAR-LISFLOOD model to quantify and recreate the extent and impact of the historic 2012 flood in Nigeria. Experimental modelling, calibration and validation is undertaken for the whole Niger-South hydrological catchment area of Nigeria, then segmented into sub-domains for re-validation to understand how data variability and uncertainties impact on the accuracy of model outcomes. Furthermore, aerial photos are applied for the first time in the study area for flood model validation and to understand how different physio-environmental properties influence synthetic aperture radar flood delineation capacity in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

Diet influences, and is influenced by, a wide range of socioeconomic, cultural, geographic, and genetic variables. Here we survey a matrix of such interactions as well as their connection to a variety of health outcomes, in a cohort of 689 diverse adults employed at Emory University and enrolled in the Center for Health Discovery and Well-Being (CHDWB) study. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the Block Food Frequency Questionnaire revealed seven PC cumulatively explaining 25.8% and each individually at least 2% of the proportional consumption of 110 food items. PC1 is strongly correlated with the Healthy Eating Index-2015 measure, and accordingly healthier scores associate with multiple measures of physical and mental health. It, as well as PC2 (likely a measure of food expense) and PC3 (carbohydrate versus protein consumption) show significant geographic structure across the Atlanta metropolitan area, correlating with race and ethnicity, income level, age and sex. Notably, a polygenic score for body mass index (BMI) consisting of 281 SNPs explains 2.8% of the variance in PC5, which is as strong as its association with BMI itself. PC5 appears to differentiate participants with respect to conscious eating behavior related to the choice of diet or comfort foods. Our analysis adds to the growing literature on factor analysis of socio-demographic influences on nutrition and health.

COVID-19 has affected 210 countries around the world, killed more than 240,000 and infected more than 3.4 million. Bangladesh, a South Asian low-middle-income economy, has experienced a demographic and epidemiological transition with rapid urbanization and a gradual increase in life expectancy. It is the seventh most populous country in the world and population of the country is expected to be nearly double by 2050. The increasing burden of noncommunicable diseases in Bangladesh can be attributable to rapid urbanization and nearly 50% of all slum dwellers of the country live in Dhaka division. In 2017, National Rapid Response Team of IEDCR investigated 26 incidents of disease outbreak. The joint survey of the Power and Participation Research Centre and BRAC Institute of Governance and Development reveals that per capita daily income of urban slum and rural poor drops by 80% due to present countrywide shutdown enforced by the government to halt the spread of Covid-19. 40%-50% of these population took loans to meet the daily expenses.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is a high priority on the agenda of main stakeholders involved in sustainable development and Earth Observation (EO) can provide useful, timely and economical information in this context. This short communication outlines the European Space Agency’s (ESA) specific initiative to promote the use and uptake of satellite data in the global development community: ‘Earth Observation for Sustainable Development (EO4SD)’. One activity area under EO4SD is devoted to Disaster Risk Reduction: EO4SD DRR. Within this project, a team of European companies and institutions are tasked to develop EO services for supporting the implementation of DRR in International Financial Institutions’ (IFI) projects. Integration of satellite-borne data and ancillary data to generate insight and actionable information is thereby considered a key factor for improved decision making. To understand and fully account for the essential user requirements (IFI & Client States), engagement with technical leaders is crucial. Fit-for-purpose use of data and comprehensive capacity building eventually ensure scalability and long-term transferability. Future perspectives of EO4SD and DRR regarding mainstreaming are also highlighted.

Traditional flood hazard analyses often rely on univariate probability distributions; however, in many coastal catchments, flooding is the result of complex hydrodynamic interactions between multiple drivers. For example, synoptic meteorological conditions can produce considerable rainfall-runoff, while also generating wind-driven elevated sea levels. When these drivers interact in space and time, they can exacerbate flood impacts; this phenomenon is known as compound flooding. In this paper, we build a Bayesian Network based on Gaussian copulas to generate the equivalent of 500 years of daily stochastic boundary conditions for a coastal watershed in Southeast Texas. In doing so, we overcome many of the limitations of conventional univariate approaches and are able to probabilistically represent compound floods caused by riverine and coastal interactions. We calculate the resulting water levels using a 1D steady-state hydraulic model and find that flood stages in the catchment are strongly affected by backwater effects from tributary inflows and downstream water levels. By comparing with a bathtub modeling approach, we show that simplifying the multivariate dependence between flood drivers can lead to an underestimation of flood impacts, highlighting that accounting for multivariate dependence is critical for the accurate representation of flood risk in coastal catchments prone to compound events.

Background: Absolute uterine factor infertility (AUFI) is a kind of infertility that is completely attributable to uterine absence (surgical or congenital for women with Mayer-Rokitansky-Küster-Hauser syndrome: MRKH) or anatomic or functional abnormality that prevents embryo implantation or completion of pregnancy to term. Until recently, the only viable option to parenthood for couples with AUFI were adoption or surrogacy. Since a first attempt of uterus transplant (UTx) in 2000, nine babies were born from women with a transplanted uterus from 2014, eight of which in Sweden, and one in the United States. These promising results are raising immense hopes for the women with AUFI and there is optimism about the possibility for UTx to become part of clinical care even though, besides encouraging results, the procedure has also resulted in increased risks and harms for both the donors and recipients and increased risks of premature birth for the fetus. At present UTx is still considered as experimental and requiring more research and safety assessment before becoming a therapeutic option for AUFI. The transition from experimental procedure to therapeutic care would result in less strict ethical scrutiny for UTx and in the possibility for patients to get reimbursement for the procedure by the relevant healthcare insurance or public healthcare providers. In turn, an increase in the number of UTx performed yearly by specialized surgical teams would result in a general improvement of the “field strength”. However, at present it is difficult to establish the amount of evidence that we need in order to consider UTx as no longer experimental but routine clinical practice. The literature on UTx provides recommendations on the different outcomes that should be monitored in this experimental phase but no study is anticipating the number of subjects that should be followed and for how long. Conclusion: As for other transplants that have become routine practice, like renal transplant and heart transplant, it is likely that the decision on “routine practice readiness” will result from available cumulated evidences, from expert capacity to find a consensus on best practices and on political considerations as well, including pressures form patients and patient groups.

There have been several cases of large-scale wind generators (WGs) tripping off caused by untimely fault removing in recent years. Currently, the discoordination between the box-type transformer fuse protection (BTFP) and two-section collecting line current protection (CLCP) brings a security risk to wind farm. In order to ensure the selectivity, the first section (Sec-I) CLCP should be set a enough interval that is longer than the fuse melting time, and another interval is set for the Sec-II CLCP, which weakens the speed of the CLCP. When a fault occurs on the collecting line, there is no doubt that WGs cannot work too long in abnormal operation, which may cause WGs to be placed off the grid. For a power system with high penetration of wind power, large-scale WGs tripping off will cause a great power shortage, and affect the stability of the power system. The selectivity and sensitivity of the CLCP is analyzed in detail to make the CLCP speed better. Considering the fault ride-through ability of WGs, the fault clear time is an important factor to lead to large-scale WGs tripping off. Two main works are done in this paper. The first is to accelerate the speed of the Sec-I CLCP though reducing the protection zone. Another one is introduce the risk assessment module into the CLCP, which not only improve the speed of the CLCP but also ensure the safety of the wind farm during faults. According to the deference in trip-off causes of WGs, the matching functions are created to assess the trip-off risk of WGs on the spot. In the case of fault, the trip-off risk indicators of WGs are timely updated to data sharing center and open to the CLCPs. The set of risk indicators is divided into several subsets according to the risk range. The dynamic changes of the subsets during fault help to improved CLCP scheme. This scheme can accelerate protection speed based on the increasing risk of large-scale WGs tripping off in wind farms. Compared with traditional CLCP, this approach can make the CLCP combines selectivity and speed better based on the analysis of the ride- through ability of WGs.

There is a need for developmental screening that is easily administered in resource-poor settings. 1) We hypothesized that known risk factors would predict failed developmental screening on an adapted screening tool in East African children living in poverty. 2) The sample included 100 healthy Ugandan children aged 6-59 months. We adapted a parent-reported developmental screener based on the Child Development Review chart. The primary outcome was failure to meet age-appropriate milestones for any developmental domain. Venous blood was analyzed for lead, and caregivers completed a demographics questionnaire. We used multivariate logistic regression models to determine if elevated blood lead and stunting predicted failure on the screener, controlling for maternal education level, age in months past the lower bound of the child’s developmental age group, and absence of home electricity. 3) In the sample, 14% (n=14) of children failed one or more milestones on the screener. Lead levels or stunting did not predict failing the screener after controlling for covariates. 4) Though this tool was feasibly administered, it did not demonstrate preliminary construct validity and is not yet recommended for screening in high-risk populations. Future research should include a larger sample size and cognitive interviews to ensure it is contextually relevant.

A copula is a useful tool for constructing bivariate and/or multivariate distributions. In this article, we consider a new modi fied class of (Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern) FGM bivariate copula for constructing several dierent bivariate Kumaraswamy type copulas and discuss their structural properties, including dependence structures. It is established that construction of bivariate distributions by this method allows for greater flexibility in the values of Spearman's correlation coefficient rho,  and Kendall's tau . For illustrative purposes, one representative data set is utilized to exhibit the applicability of these proposed bivariate copula models.

Conflicts are frequent within the complex professional environment of the construction industry. If claims cannot be overcome amicably, they result in disputes that lead to litigation. Identification of the causes of these claims and their impact on the duration, cost, and quality of the final project is expected to facilitate the prevention of unsuccessful performance of construction contracts. The novelty of this study is that after codifying the most common causes of construction contract claims derived from the extant literature, they are further investigated in terms of their probability of occurrence and the perceived impact they have on the project completion time, its total cost, and quality. Based on calculated relative importance indices from expert opinion, this paper proposes probability and severity of impact values for 39 common causes of claims in the construction industry. These can be applied to calculate their risk values for stakeholders in public construction contracts to plan mitigation measures of contractual claims. The findings show that the top five riskiest causes of contractual claims in the Greek construction industry are changes in quantities, work, or scope, design quality deficiencies or errors, payment delays, delays in work progress, and the financial failure of the contractor.

Background: There is an exponential increase in caesarean sections with epidemic proportions worldwide, which is considered as a serious public health issue that influences negatively both maternal and childhood health. Aims: This study aimed to evaluate the associations between pre-dominant maternal risk factors and the prevalence of caesarean section in a representative sample of women from Greece. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study conducted on 5182 healthy, re-productive-aged women from 11 geographically diverse Greek areas after applying specific inclu-sion and exclusion criteria. Statistical analysis was applied to evaluate the impact of maternal so-ciodemographic, anthropometric, lifestyle and perinatal factors in the risk of caesarean section de-liveries. Results: A high prevalence of 56.4% of caesarean section deliveries was recorded in the study population. The incidence of caesarean sections reached to 51.5% in private hospitals in which an increasing rate of 47.5% for planned caesarean sections were noticed. Older maternal age, pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity, excess gestational weight gain, high rates of preterm birth, better economic status, smoking habits, and private type of birth hospital were significantly related with enhanced risk of caesarean section, independently of multiple confounding factors. Conclu-sions: Our study revealed that caesarean section rates are continuously increase, while several maternal risk factors, including especially pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and excess gestational weight gain, cumulatively raise its prevalence which further increase the risk for postnatal adverse outcomes for both the mothers and their children. Emergent public health policies and strategies should be promoted to confront the predominant maternal risk factors-related with caesarean sec-tion and inform future mothers how to be prevented from them by applying healthier nutritional and lifestyle habits and to select caesarean section only due to emergency medical reasons. Alarmingly enough, targeted nutritional intervention strategies are strongly recommended to ef-fectively reduce the prevalence of maternal pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and the excess gestational weight gain, which in turn may minimize the risk of childhood overweight/obesity.

In order to achieve its carbon peak and neutrality targets, a high proportion of distributed power sources are connected to the distribution network in China, which greatly increases the risk of distribution network operation. Aiming at the above problems, this paper proposes an active distribution network risk planning model based on multi-source data from carbon capture and power internet of things, and conducts exceeding testing of distribution network based on the stochastic load flow algorithm with semi-invariant and level expansion, calculates the semi-invariant of each order of node state vectors and branch current vectors, and then utilizes the Gram-Charlier level expansion to obtain the exceeding probability density function and probability distribution function of the node voltages and line powers of the distribution network. The probability density function and probability distribution function of the exceeding are obtained using the Gram-Charlier series expansion. Combined with multi-source data, the active distribution network with integrated energy system considering carbon capture is modeled. According to the risk scenario of the distribution network, the nonconvex constraints in the model are simplified by the second-order cone relaxation, and the optimal planning scheme of the distribution network is solved by combining the gurobi solver with the risk index as the first-level objective and the economic benefit as the second-level objective. The simulation results of a coupled network consisting of a 39-node distribution network and an 11-node transportation network verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Background: Over 900,000 cases of COVID-19 and 23,000 deaths have been reported till 13 July in India. Preserving the limited healthcare workforce is part of the strategy against the pandemic. Mortality and morbidity data have a role in customising this strategy. At this time, there is no published study on COVID-related mortality among doctors or other healthcare workers in India. Methods: A multi-pronged search was made for all reported deaths linked with COVID-19 among doctors in India. Details of COVID-linked deaths reported by mainstream media and by multiple professional social media sources were collected, screened, verified and analysed. Violent deaths occurring in the setting of pandemic-related work were separately listed. Deaths from other diseases were excluded. Results: Among 108 COVID-linked deaths among doctors, there were four pandemic-related violent deaths including three road accidents and a suicide. Of the 104 non-violent deaths, 55.5% were below 60 years of age, while 29.6% and 21% were below the age of 50 and 40 respectively. The average age at death was 56.3 (range 22 - 96). Over half of the deaths occurred among general practitioners, while surgical specialties accounted for 27% of the mortality. The geographic distribution of deaths of doctors correlated with the reported number of COVID-19 patients in each state. The total number of COVID-related healthcare worker deaths was 136, out of which eight (5.8%) were violent, and occurred in young individuals with an average age of 27.8 years. Conclusions: The majority of the 104 COVID-related non-violent deaths among doctors (55.5%) occurred below the age of 60. The average at death was 56.6 years. The states with highest number of COVID-19 cases had greater number of doctor deaths. Violent deaths among young healthcare workers in the setting of the pandemic requires special attention.

The planning and decision-making for a distributed energy supply concept in complex actor structures like in districts calls for the approach to be highly structured. Here, a strategy with strong use of energetic simulations is developed, the core elements are presented and research gaps are identified. The exemplary implementation is shown using the case study of a new district on the former Oldenburg airbase in northwestern Germany. The process is divided into four consecutive phases, which are carried out with different stakeholder participation and use of different simulation tools. Based on a common objective, a superstructure of the applicable technologies is developed. Detailed planning is then carried out with the help of a multi-objective optimal sizing algorithm and Monte Carlo based risk assessment. The process ends with the operating phase, which is to guarantee a further optimal and dynamic mode of operation. The main objective of this publication is present the core elements of the planning processes and decision-making framework based on the case study and to find and identify research gaps that will have to be addressed in the future.

Very little is known about laboratory confirmed blood stream infections (LCBIs) in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) in resource-limited settings. The aim of this cohort study was to determine the incidence, risk factors, and causative agents of LCBIs in a level-2 NICU in India. The diagnosis of LCBIs was established using the Centre for Disease Control, USA criteria. A predesigned questionnaire containing risk factors associated with LCBIs was filled-in. A total of 150 neonates (43% preterm) were included in the study. The overall incidence of LCBIs was 31%. The independent risk factors for LCBIs were: preterm neonates (relative risk (RR) 2.23), duration of NICU stay more than 14 days (RR 1.75), chorioamnionitis in the mother (RR 3.18), premature rupture of membrane in mothers (RR 2.32), neonate born through meconium-stained amniotic fluid (RR 2.32), malpresentation (RR 3.05), endotracheal intubation (RR 3.41), umbilical catheterization (RR 4.18), and ventilator-associated pneumonia (RR 3.17). The initiation of minimal enteral nutrition was protective from LCBIs (RR 0.22). The predominant causative organisms were gram-negative pathogens (58%). The results of the present study can be used to design antibiotic interventions to reduce LCBIs in resource-limited settings.

Changes in extreme weather patterns are expected under climate change. In this study, a risk assessment was conducted using 4 building damage history datasets and 33 weather datasets (precipitation, wind speed, snow, and temperature) from 230 regions in South Korea to quantitatively analyze and predict building damage caused by potential future natural disasters. Decision tree analysis was used to evaluate building damage risk in 230 regions. The decision tree model to determine the risk of flood, gale, and typhoon was generated, which excluded gales, with less damage. The weight (variable importance) and limit value (damage limit) of the weather variables ware derived using the decision tree model. Using these two factors, we assessed the building damage risk in 230 regions in South Korea until 2100. The number of regions at risk of flood damage increased by more than 30% in average. Conversely, regions at risk of snowfall damage decreased by more than 90%. The regions at risk of typhoons decreased by 57.5% on average, and the number of regions at high risk of typhoon damage increased by up to 62.5% in RCP 8.5. These results can be used as objective data to minimize future building damage throughout South Korea, representing the first step towards sustainable development in the region with respect to disaster response.

Cervical cancer, primarily caused by high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) types 16 and 18, is a major global health concern. Persistent HR-HPV infection can progress from reversible pre-cancerous lesions to invasive cervical cancer, which is driven by the oncogenic activity of human papillomavirus (HPV) genes, particularly E6 and E7. Traditional screening methods, including cytology and HPV testing, have limited sensitivity and specificity. This review explores the ap-plication of p16/Ki-67 dual-staining cytology for cervical cancer screening. This advanced im-munocytochemical method allows for simultaneously detecting p16 and Ki-67 proteins within cervical epithelial cells, offering a more specific approach for triaging HPV-positive women. Dual staining and traditional methods are compared, demonstrating their high sensitivity and negative predictive value but low specificity. The increased sensitivity of dual staining results in higher detection rates of CIN2+ lesions, which is crucial for preventing cervical cancer progression. However, its low specificity may lead to increased false-positive results and unnecessary biopsies. The implications of integrating dual staining into contemporary screening strategies, particularly considering the evolving landscape of HPV vaccination and changes in HPV genotype prevalence are also discussed. New guidelines and further research are necessary to elucidate the long-term effects of integrating dual staining into screening protocols.

The sensitivity of exercise ECG is marginally sufficient for detection of mild reduction of coronary blood flow in patients with early coronary atherosclerosis. Here we describe the application of new technique of ECG registration/analysis – ultrahigh resolution ECG (UHR ECG) – for early detection of myocardial ischemia (MIS). The utility of UHR ECG vs. conventional ECG (C ECG) was tested in anesthetized rats and pigs. Transmural MIS was induced in rats by the ligation of the left coronary artery (CA). In pigs, subendocardial ischemia of variable extent was produced by stepwise inflation of balloon within the right CA causing 25-100% reduction of its lumen. In rats, a reduction in power spectral density (PSD) in high-frequency (HF) channel of UHR ECG was registered at 60 s after ischemia (power 0.81±0.14 vs. 1.25±0.12 mW at baseline, p<0.01). This was not accompanied by any ST segment elevation on C ECG. In pigs, PSD in HF channel of UHR ECG was significantly decreased at 25% reduction of CA lumen, while ST segment on C ECG remained unchanged. In conclusion, UHR ECG enabled earlier detection of transmural MIS compared to C ECG. PSD in HF-channel of UHR ECG demonstrated greater sensitivity in the settings of subendocardial ischemia.

Economic risks for livestock production are caused by volatile commodities and market conditions, but also by environmental drivers like increasing uncertainties due to weather anomalies and global warming. These risks impact the gross margin of farmers and can stimulated investment decisions. For confined pig and poultry production, farmers can reduce the environmental impact by implementing specific adaptation measures to reduce heat stress. A simulation model driven by meteorological data was used to calculate heat stress impact as a projection for 2030. For a business-as-usual livestock building, the indoor climate for several adaptation measures was calculated. The weather-related value-at risk quantified the economic risks caused by global warming and the stochastic component of the weather. The results show that only energy-saving adaptation measures to reduce the inlet air temperature are appropriate to reduce the economic risk to the level of the year 1980. The efficiency of other adaptation measures to reduce heat stress is distinctly lower. The results in this study can support the decision making of farmers concerning adaptation management and investments. It can inform agricultural policy design as well as technological development.

The health of the landing gear retraction and extension hydraulic system may be assessed using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), however the traditional FCE method depends solely on human assessment by specialists, which is excessively subjective. To address the issue of excessive human subjective variables in the assessment, an improved FCE model based on enhanced risk coefficient is provided, which includes four consideration indexes: failure probability, failure severity, failure detection difficulty, and failure repair difficulty. To reduce subjective human judgment errors entirely due to expert experience, the improved FCE takes into account the likelihood of failure using a statistical method, the severity of failure using a fault simulation analysis based on the LMS Imagine.Lab AMESim simulation platform, and the difficulty of fault detection and repair using the aircraft manufacturer's professional maintenance information. As part of the evaluation model, the range of health assessment values and accompanying treatment methods are included, making it easier to implement on a daily basis in aircraft maintenance. As a final step, the simulation is evaluated and the simulated faults are calculated.

Mediterranean climate is marked by arid climate conditions in summer, therefore, crop irrigation is crucial to sustain plant growth and productivity in this season. If groundwater is utilized for irrigation, an impressive water pumping is needed to satisfy crop water requirements at catchment scale. Consequently, irrigation water quality gets worse, specifically considering groundwater salinization near the coastal areas due to seawater intrusion, also triggering soil salinization. With reference to an agricultural coastal area in the Mediterranean basin (Southern Italy), close to the Adriatic sea, an assessment of soil salinization risk due to processing tomato cultivation was carried out. A simulation model was arranged to perform, on daily basis, a water and salt balance along the soil profile. Long-term weather data and soil physical parameters representative of the considered area were utilized in applying the model, also considering three salinity levels of irrigation water. Based on the climatic analysis performed and the model outputs, the probability of soil salinity came out very high, such as to seriously threaten tomato yield. Autumn-winter rainfall resulted frequently insufficient to leach excess salts away from the soil profile and reach sustainable conditions of tomato cultivation. Therefore, alternative cropping strategies were prospected.

We estimate general public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for agricultural soil quality protection and improvement in Spain (n=1000) and the UK (n=984) using data from a cross-sectional survey via Qualtrics panels in March-April 2021. We use a double bound dichotomous choice contingent valuation approach to elicit the individuals’ WTP. We investigate the effect of uncertainty on the success of policies aiming at achieving soil protection. In addition, to understand the heterogeneity in individuals’ WTP for agricultural soil quality protection and improvement we model individuals’ WTP through individual’s awareness and attitudes toward agricultural soil quality protection and the environment, trust in institutions; risk and time preferences; pro-social behavior and socio-demographics in Spain and the UK. We found that there is significant public support for agricultural soil quality protection and improvement in Spain and the UK. We also found that the support does not vary significantly under uncertainty of success of policies aiming at achieving soil protection. However the individual’s reasons for supporting agricultural soil quality protection and improvement are found to depend on the level of uncertainty and country. Hence, promoting public support for soil protection needs to be tailored according to the level of general public’s perceived uncertainty and geographic location.

This paper proposes a new method for network screening on rural low-volume roads. These roads are important as they provide critical access to agricultural land and tourist attractions. Most low-volume roads belong to the lowest functional class (local rural roads) and thus are built to lower design standards. The conventional hot spot network screening techniques may not be appropriate for low-volume roads due to the sporadic nature of crashes occurring on these roads. Contrarily sophisticated network screening approaches require extensive roadway and traffic data that are often unavailable to local agencies for lack of resources, and/or lack of technical expertise. This research attempts to address these obstacles in low-volume roads network screening which aims to identify candidate sites for safety improvements. The research used an extensive low-volume road sample from the state of Oregon and the Empirical Bayes expected number of crashes in developing the proposed models for network screening. The proposed models do not require exact measurement of roadway geometric features as all geometric variables were classified into categories that are easy to compile by local agencies. Further, the method could be used with and without traffic data, without compromising the effectiveness of the network screening process.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causes of cost variation in natural disaster prevention projects (NDPP) in Gyeongsangbuk-do and to develop effective cost and risk management strategies. The study collected data by conducting an online survey of 244 stakeholders. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the impact of various variables on cost deviation, in-cluding project management risk (PMR), project costing and execution risk (PCER), project exe-cution strategy risk (PESR), construction project risk (CPR), project cost and schedule risk (PCSR), project management challenges (PMC), and construction project subcontractor and safety man-agement (CPSSM). The results showed that PMR (OR=3.744, 95% C.I. [1.657, 8.457]), PCER (OR=5.068, 95% C.I. [2.236, 11.484]), PESR (OR=3.447, 95% C.I. [1. 853, 6.413]), CPR (OR=2.292, 95% C.I. [1.020, 5.151]), PCSR (OR=4.817, 95% C.I. [2.250, 10.317]), PMC (OR=2.954, 95% C.I. [1.452, 6. 013]), and CPSSM (OR=2.419, 95% C.I. [1.297, 4.515]) had statistically significant effects on cost deviation. In particular, PMR, PCER, and PESR were identified as the main causes, and the effects of additional factors such as CPSSM were also important. The developed predictive model plays an important role in helping stakeholders of NDPP to manage risks in advance and take appro-priate preventive measures to ensure the success of the project. This study empirically supports the theoretical hypotheses of previous studies and provides a clear understanding of the causes of cost deviation in NDPP, which provides important insights for strategic decision-making and provides a new perspective on risk management.

Radiological imaging is essential for acute patient management in Intensive Care Units (ICUs); however, it introduces the risk of exposure to ionizing radiation. This review synthesizes research on radiation exposure in intensive care unit (ICU) settings, highlighting its rise during the COVID-19 pandemic and repetitive imaging. Our analysis extends to radiation safety thresholds, revealing that some ICU patients exceed annual occupational limits, emphasizing the need to balance diagnostic utility against potential long-term risks, such as cancer. Prospective studies have demonstrated an increase in the median Cumulative Effective Dose (CED) in patients with trauma over time, prompting calls for improved awareness and monitoring. Moreover, innovative dose-reduction strategies and optimized protocols, especially in neuro-ICU units, promise to mitigate these risks. This review highlights the essential but risky role of radiological imaging in critical care. It advocates rigorous radiation management protocols to safeguard patient health, while ensuring the continuity of high-quality medical care.

Reading proficiency is requisite in our read-to-learn educational system, yet two-thirds of American students are not proficient readers. Assuring educational equity means supporting all learners with multiple component reading interventions that individually scaffold students while remediating weak literacy skills and providing intensive and sustainable intervention early. This study (N = 855) measured the efficacy of two different multiple component reading programs for students in grades three, four, and five. Grade levels of students were assigned to either the treatment intervention or the typical practice condition; and all students were pre-and post-tested using EasyCBM Reading Benchmarks. Students scoring at/below the 30^th percentile on either benchmark were also assessed with the WRMT-3 Passage Reading Comprehension and Oral Reading Fluency measures. Students in the treatment condition received Readable English and students in typical practice condition continued to receive Amplify CKLA during their regular ELA times for 45—60 hours. Students receiving Readable English significantly outperformed students in the typical practice condition on measures of oral reading fluency, reading rate, accuracy, and passage comprehension. Raw scores, growth scale values, and grade equivalents are reported, and implications for practice are discussed. In a school year fraught with pandemic instructional interruptions and learning loss, elementary students in the intervention condition averaged a year’s worth of growth in reading fluency and nine months of growth in reading comprehension compared to three- and five-months fluency and comprehension growth in the typical practice condition. Students in the Readable English condition experienced meaningful gains in reading rate and accuracy that will give exponential word reading volume dividends to students able to read text faster and more accurately going forward. This study adds to accumulating evidence that multiple component reading programs designed to reinforce fluency skills also support reading comprehension gains for all students.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is increasingly being recognized as a systemic disease rather than a mere disorder of the lungs. Central (respiratory) and peripheral (limb) muscle weakness are among the main pronounced systemic effects of COPD. While the disease primarily affects the lower limb muscles and contributes to gait impairment, COPD is also associated with an increasing risk of falls in patients (COPDp). Previous studies have reported higher rates of falls among COPDp (1.17 to 1.20 falls/person-year), amounting to four times higher than an age-matched healthy group. Potential fall risk factors include muscle weakness, impaired daily activities, cognitive dysfunction, and gait and balance impairment. Although COPDp often manifest many of these risk factors, there remains a gap in literature regarding falls during walking in this population. This study aimed to 1. analyze the literature to identify the risk factors of falling in COPDp, and 2. investigate the underlying mechanisms by which these risk factors can lead to increased prevalence of falling. The results suggest that in addition to the known risk factors of falling, low back pain and mental fatigue should also be considered as relevant risk factors in the treatment process of these patients. Moreover, respiratory problems, which are common in this population, have demonstrated pronounced effects on energy expenditure, gait, and other types of activities of daily living (ADLs), leading to reduced intensity, disrupted coordination of the trunk-pelvic structure with the lower limbs during gait, and altered motor control performance due to activation of muscles in an inefficient synergic manner. These problems potentially lead to the increased vulnerability of these patients to external disturbances and higher incidence risk of falls and injuries. Cognitive problems, which are typically due to reduced oxygen received by the brain, as well as general inflammation caused by COPD, also play a significant role in gait disruption and balance. Future research is warranted to determine the prevalence of falls in COPDp by examining the response of these patients to Medio-Lateral (ML) and Anterior-Posterior (AP) disturbances during gait in association with traditional and recommended fall risk factors.

Methods to handle uncertainty in economic evaluation have gained much attention in the literature and the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) is the most widely used method to summarize and present uncertainty associated with program costs and effects in cost-effectiveness analysis. Some researchers have emphasized the limitations of the CEAC for informing decision and policy makers as the CEAC is insensitive to radial shifts of the joint distribution of incremental costs and effects in the North-East and South-West quadrants of the cost-effective plane (CEP). Furthermore, it has been pointed out that the CEAC does not incorporate risk-aversion in valuing uncertain costs and effects. In the present article we show that the cost-effectiveness affordability curve (CEAFC) captures both dimensions of the joint distribution of incremental costs and effects on the CEP and is therefore sensitive to radial shifts of the joint distribution on the CEP. Furthermore, the CEAFC also informs about the budget impact of a new intervention as it estimates the joint probability an intervention is both affordable and cost-effective. Moreover, we show that the cost-effectiveness risk-aversion curve (CERAC) allows to incorporate risk-aversion into the analysis and can therefore be used to inform decision-makers who are risk-averse. We use data from a published cost-effectiveness model of palbociclib in addition to letrozole versus letrozole alone for the treatment of oestrogen-receptor positive, HER-2 negative, advanced breast cancer to demonstrate the differences between CEAC, CEAFC and CERAC and show how these can jointly be used to inform decision and policy makers.

Background: This article evaluates the perception of drug use control and strategies in Valencia City (Spain) in a general and clinical population, in two independent studies. Material and Methods: 1071 people participated. In the Study 1 (n= 924) the entire sample came from general population (GP), and in the Study 2 (n=147), 68 were drug users being treated in an Addictive Behaviors Unit (ABU), and 79 people of the GP. The drug use control perception and strategies in both subgroups were compared. The participants filled in the Drug Use Strategies Scale and a Drug Use Survey. Results: A high level of perception of drug control in GP was obtained (72,7% in the Study 1 and 67,5% in the Study 2), and 32.5% in ABU subgroup. People in the PG and drug users in treatment differ in some control strategies. A predictive profile of the perception of control was obtained for the Study 2. Conclusion: The high degree of perception of controlling drug use in the GP, and partially in drug users being treated, and the specific control strategies reported suggests that moderate use and drug control strategies are a great value alternative to bear in mind compared to abstinence.

Genome-wide association studies have revealed a locus at 8p12 that is associated with breast cancer risk. Fine-mapping of this locus identified 16 candidate causal variants (CCVs). However, as these variants are intergenic, their function is unclear. To map chromatin looping from this risk locus to a previously identified candidate target gene, DUSP4, we performed chromatin conformation capture analyses in normal and tumoral breast cell lines. We identified putative regulatory elements, containing CCVs, that loop to the DUSP4 promoter region. Using reporter gene assays, we found that the risk allele of CCV rs7461885 reduced the activity of a DUSP4 enhancer element, consistent with the function of DUSP4 as a tumor suppressor gene. Furthermore, the risk allele of CCV rs12155535, located in another DUSP4 enhancer element, was negatively correlated with looping of this element to the DUSP4 promoter region, suggesting that this allele would be associated with reduced expression. These findings provide the first evidence that CCV risk alleles downregulate DUSP4 expression, suggesting that this gene is a regulatory target of the 8p12 breast cancer risk locus.

A new model for risk assessment of urban rainstorm disasters, based on information diffusion method and variable fuzzy sets (IDM-VFS) was proposed. In addition, an integrated index system of urban rainstorm risk was established. In the proposed model, IDM was employed to calculate the classification standards of urban rainstorm risk levels, then the VFS was adopted to assess the dangerousness, sensitivity, vulnerability and comprehensive risk of urban rainstorm disasters. In the present study, the urban rainstorm risk of Jiangsu province was evaluated with the proposed model. The results show that Wuxi, Changzhou, Nanjing and Suzhou have higher dangerousness, due to sustained rainfall and strong rainfall intensity in short duration; Wuxi, Changzhou and Nanjing have higher sensitivity because of lower disaster resistance ability; and Wuxi and Suzhou have higher vulnerability because these cities have higher potential losses in face of urban rainstorm disasters. The comprehensive risk zoning map of urban rainstorm shows apparent regional characteristics: the northwestern cities have lower risk than the southern cities. Moreover, most cities of the Jiangsu province are of the moderate urban rainstorm risk level. The results are consistent with the actual situation of Jiangsu province, and the study can provide some decision-making references for the urban rainstorm management.

The core of risk aggregation in the Solvency II Standard Formula is the so-called square root formula. We argue that it should be seen as a means for the aggregation of different risks to an overall risk rather than being associated with variance-covariance based risk analysis. Considering the Solvency II Standard Formula from the viewpoint of linear geometry, we immediately find that it defines a norm and therefore provides a homogeneous and sub-additive tool for risk aggregation. Hence Euler's Principle for the reallocation of risk capital applies and yields explicit formulas for capital allocation in the framework given by the Solvency II Standard Formula. This gives rise to the definition of diversification functions, which we define as monotone, subadditive, and homogeneous functions on a convex cone. Diversification functions constitute a class of models for the study of the aggregation of risk, and diversification. The aggregation of risk measures using a diversification function preserves the respective properties of these risk measures. Examples of diversification functions are given by seminorms, which are monotone on the convex cone of non-negative vectors. Each L^p norm has this property, and any scalar product given by a non-negative positive semidefinite matrix does as well. In particular, the Standard Formula is a diversification function and hence a risk measure that preserves homogeneity, subadditivity, and convexity.

The epistemology of the traditional risk assessment examined has a taxonomy based upon deterministic, behaviouristic and compatibilist methodologies which are likely driven by neo-liberal market related requirements for bigger, faster cheaper wind-turbines. Analysis of available risk assessments suggested that there is no conscious effort to deceive the reader although the intended audience is unclear. The language, and scoring mechanisms utilized indicates the presence of conformity bias, confirmation bias, and numerical inconsistency leading to data ossification. By reverse engineering risk assessment content, Pragmatic and Social Psychological aspects can be investigated, and the adequacy of the document can be evaluated using evidence-based models.

The 3D/3D+ multidimensional geriatric assessment tool provides an optimal model of emergency care for patients aged 75 and over who attend the Emergency Department (ED). The baseline, or static, component (3D) stratifies the degree of frailty prior to the acute illness, while the current, or dynamic, component (3D+) assesses the multidimensional impact caused by the acute illness and helps to guide the choice of care facility for patients upon their discharge from the ED. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the 3D/3D+ to predict short- and long-term adverse outcomes in ED patients aged 75 years and older. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify the predictors of mortality 30 days after 3D/3D+ assessment. Two hundred and seventy-eight patients (59.7% women) with a median age of 86 years (interquartile range: 83-90) were analysed. According to the baseline component (3D), 83.1% (95%CI: 78.2-87.3) presented some degree of frailty. The current component (3D+) presented alterations in 60.1% (95%CI: 54.1-65.9). The choice of care facility at ED discharge indicated by the 3D/3D+ was considered appropriate in 96.4% (95%CI: 93.0-98.0). Thirty-day all-cause mortality was 19.4%. Delirium and functional decline were the dimensions on the 3D/3D+ that were independently associated with 30-day mortality. These two dimensions had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.80 (95%CI: 0.73-0.86) for predicting 30-day mortality. 3D/3D+ enhances the provision of comprehensive care by ED professionals, guides them in the choice of patients’ discharge destination, and has a prognostic validity that serves to establish future therapeutic objectives.

Covid-19 is an airborne disease, with the vast majority of infections occurring indoors. By comparison, little transmission occurs outdoors. Here, we investigate the airborne transmission pathways that differentiate the indoors from outdoors, and conclude that profound differences exist, which help to explain why SARS-CoV-2 transmission is much more prevalent indoors. Near and far-field transmission pathways are discussed along with factors that affect infection risk, with aerosol concentration, air entrainment, thermal plumes, and occupancy duration all identified as being influential. In particular, we present the fundamental equations that underpin the Wells-Riley model, and show the mathematical relationship between inhaled virus particles and quanta of infection. A simple model is also presented for assessing infection risk in spaces with incomplete air mixing. Transmission risk is assessed in terms of aerosol concentration using simple 1D equations, followed by a description of thermal plume-ceiling interactions. With respect to this, we present new experimental results using Schlieren-visualisation and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based on the Eulerian-Lagrangian approach. Pathways of airborne infection are discussed, with the key differences identified between indoors and outdoors. In particular, the contribution of thermal and exhalation plumes is evaluated, and the presence of near-field/far-field feedback loop postulated, which is absent outdoors.

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is associated with a high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular (CV) disease. Contributing pathophysiologic factors include endothelial dysfunction caused by excessive production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), increased activity of nuclear factor kB (NFkB), altered macrophage polarization, and reduced synthesis of endothelial progenitor cells (EPC). Consequently, there can be a potentially rapid progression of the atherosclerotic disease with a higher propensity to unstable plaque, leading to increased cardiovascular mortality. Management is aimed at prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment of hyperglycemia and vascular complications. Innovative therapeutic approaches for T2DM seek to customize the antidiabetic treatment to each patient in order to optimize glucose-lowering effects, minimize hypoglycemia and adverse effects, and prevent cardiovascular events. The newer drugs (Glucagon Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists, GLP-1 RAs; Sodium GLucose coTransporter-2 inhibitors, SGLT2is; DiPeptidyl Peptidase-4 inhibitors, DPP4is) impact body weight, lipid parameters, and blood pressure, as well as endothelial function, inflammatory markers, markers of oxidative stress, and subclinical atherosclerosis. The present review summarizes the results of trials that evaluated the cardiovascular safety of these drugs and found them to be safe from the CV standpoint.

The use of logistic regression models in data analysis and machine learning has expanded in recent years and has become the primary preference of researchers in risk assessment studies across a wide range of scientific fields. From the assessment of credit risk in financial institutions to the estimation of risk factors for traffic accidents or the identification of etiological factors for chronic diseases. All logistic models are natural extensions of the simple binary model, and their interpretation is based on it. Using the data of a cross-sectional study on the risk factors of traffic collisions, the two main extended models of logistic techniques, multinomial and ordinal logistic regression, are presented in the article in detail. Emphasis is placed on the use of ordinal regression since the outcome variable of the collision data is defined as ordinal measurement reflecting a latent continuous scale.

The number of individuals meeting criteria for genetic counseling and testing for hereditary cancer syndromes (HCS) is far less than the number that actually receive it. To facilitate identification of patients at risk for HCS, Counsyl developed a digital identification tool (digital ID tool) to match personal and family cancer history to National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) BRCA-related Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC), Lynch syndrome, and polyposis testing criteria in one-to-one, automated fashion. The purpose of this study was to validate the ability of the digital ID tool to accurately identify histories that do and do not meet NCCN testing criteria. Methods: Third-party recorded three-generation pedigrees were retrospectively reviewed by a certified genetic counselor (CGC) to determine if independent events included in pedigree histories met NCCN guidelines, and were then sorted into groups: high risk events (meets criteria) and low risk events (does not meet criteria). Events were entered into the digital ID tool to determine the extent of its concordance with events sorted by CGC review. Statistical tests of accuracy were calculated at a 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: 197 pedigrees were reviewed consecutively representing 765 independent events for analysis across groups. 382/382 (100%) high risk events identified by the digital ID tool and 381/383 (99.47%) low risk events identified by the digital ID tool were concordant with CGC sorting. The digital ID tool had a sensitivity of 100% (99.04-100% CI) and specificity of 99.48% (98.13-99.94% CI). The overall accuracy of the digital ID tool was estimated to be 99.74% (99.06-99.97% CI), reflecting the rate at which the digital ID tool reached the same conclusion as that of CGC review of pedigree events for the recommendation of genetic testing for individuals at risk for HCS. Conclusions: The digital ID tool accurately matches NCCN criteria in one-to-one fashion to identify at-risk individuals for HCS and may be useful in clinical practice, specifically for BRCA-related HBOC and Lynch Syndrome.

The city administration of China planned numerous metro projects and more metros can hardly avoid undercrossing a bridge. While metro shield construction when undercrossing a bridge (MSCUB) is frequently located in complicated natural and social context, which made the construction process more susceptible to safety accidents. Therefore, it is crucial to look into safety risk of MSCUB. The paper identified the safety risk factors during SSCUR by using literature review and experts’ evaluation, proposed a novel safety risk assessment model by integrating CFA and FER, and then selected a project case to test the validity of the suggested model. Research results show that (a) a safety risk factors list of MSCUB was identified, including 4 first-level safety risks and 37 second-level safety risk factors; (b) the proposed safety risk assessment model can be used to measure the risk values of the overall worksite safety risk, the first-level safety risks and the safety risk factors of MSCUB; (c) environment-type safety risk and personnel-type safety risk have higher risk values when shield construction undercrossing a bridge; (d) when compared to worker-type safety risk, manager-type safety risk is the higher risk value. The research can enrich the theoretic knowledge of MSCUB safety risk assessment and provide references to safety managers for conducting scientific and effective safety management on the construction site when subway undercrossing a river.

This study examines the DCMA concerning the future risk of the water security status. We considered three risk factors: population growth, economic growth, and natural water supply demand differences. In the risk analysis part, we consulted with experts from several sectors including academia, Non-Governmental Organization (NGOs), and industry, to predict that the probability of future water stresses in high, medium, and low scenarios are 0.73, 0.24, and 0.03, respectively. In the decision analysis part, we adopted two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approaches that include Multiple Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods to evaluate the best alternative decision to alleviate future water stresses in the DCMA. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates the best option closely connects to the weighting scheme of the criteria considered in the framework. This study provides a valuable risk and decision analysis framework to analyze the water security status associated with the future water supply and demand gap decrease caused by three risk factors: population growth, climate change, and natural water supply.

Introduction: Thyroid nodules are extremely common and require complex management to prevent unnecessary surgical intervention and ensure that no malignant disease is overlooked. Several diagnostic tools and scoring systems are available to evaluate the Risk of Malignancy (ROM). The goal is to assess variables that can aid and support the clinical recommendations suggested by the updated Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology (TBSRTC), such as the ultrasonographic features of thyroid nodules, particularly for indeterminate categories III (atypia of undetermined significance) and IV (follicular neoplasm). Methods: We retrospectively analysed the correlation of the demographic and ultrasonographic characteristics of thyroid nodules with the cytopathological and histopathological diagnoses of TBSRTC categories III (atypia of undetermined significance), IV (follicular neoplasm), V (suspicious for malignancy), and VI (malignant) in patients who underwent surgery in a single Portuguese centre over a 10-year period. Results: In total, 360 nodules were evaluated in 341 patients and 57% were histopathologically malignant or borderline. The majority were included in the TBSRTC indeterminate categories III and IV with an ROM of 44% and 43%, respectively. The ultrasonographic characteristics associated with a higher TBSRTC category and a greater ROM value were hypoechogenicity, presence of microcalcifications, irregular margins, and the presence of cervical adenopathy. When correlating with a malignant histology, only adenopathy and the presence of microcalcifications were observed to be statistically significant. Discussion: The indeterminate categories of the TBSRTC have been the most challenging ones to manage. The new TBSRTC (2023) guidelines as well as the ultrasonographic characteristics of a patient can be helpful in assessing the ROM and deciding on an appropriate course of treatment. Other resources, such as molecular tests, are also gaining a more important role in the clinical decision process and may become crucial in the future. Conclusion: The clinical management of thyroid nodules requires a careful analysis of clinical history and an evaluation of demographic details, the symptoms of the patient, comorbidities, personal and family history, ultrasonographic features, and the results of cytopathology, thyroid function, and molecular/genetic tests to provide the best care possible. Patients with thyroid nodules of an indeterminate character can obtain a definitive diagnosis through surgery. However, by employing a complete analysis of all relevant data, some patients may be suitable for active surveillance instead of a surgical intervention.

A simple bounded stochastic motion is employed for modelling equity price dynamics under shocks, where the prices are constrained to lie between two positive bounds. While the stochastic process has an inaccessible boundary, the other boundary is quasi-bounded, implying that the boundary can be breached if the probability leakage condition is met. The quasi-boundedness of the process at the boundary can thus provide an indicator of possible risk of equities under price shocks. Empirical calibration of model parameters of the proposed process for equities can be performed easily due to the availability of an analytically tractable probability density function which generates fat-tailed distributions consistent with empirical observations. The volatility and mean-reversion of the S&P500 dynamics calibrated by the process is positively and negatively co-integrated respectively with the VIX index representing the level of market distress. The process captures the high likelihood of Hertz’s default about two months earlier, using only information until that point, and before the firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in May 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Empirical calibration of the process for GameStop’s stock price shows that the short squeeze of the stock occurred when the condition for breaching an upper boundary was met on 14 January 2021, i.e., about two weeks before major short sellers closed out their positions with significant losses. The trading volume of the stock was positively co-integrated with the probability leakage ratio.

The assessment and prediction of drought risk under future climate change and land use land cover (LULC) scenarios is critically important for drought prevention and mitigation, as it enables a clearer understanding of potential shifts in drought patterns. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate sub-seasonal and seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought hazards across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) under projected future climate conditions and LULC patterns. The BCC-CSM1-1 climate model projections from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset are utilized to represent future climate for 2025-2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CA-Markov model is employed to predict future LULC distributions. Meteorological and hydrological drought risks across different YRB zones are evaluated through a copula-based risk assessment approach, based on the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity. The results indicate that sub-seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts will likely be the primary concern moving forward. Specifically, the upper YRB (zones A, B, C) exhibits greater vulnerability to sub-seasonal meteorological drought, while the Loess Plateau (zones C, E) shows higher susceptibility to sub-seasonal hydrological drought. Moreover, zone F in the downstream region may experience increased seasonal hydrological drought risk due to projected urban expansion in the middle and lower portions of the YRB.

When attempting to quantify future harms caused by carbon emissions and to set appropriate energy policies, it has been argued that the most important metric is the number of human deaths caused by climate change. Several studies have attempted to overcome the uncertainties associated with such forecasting. In this article, approaches to estimating future human deaths tolls from climate change are compared and synthesized, and implications for energy policy are considered. Several studies are consistent with the “1000-ton rule,” according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2°C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming. Such mass manslaughter is clearly unacceptable. On this basis, relatively aggressive energy policies are summarized that would enable immediate and substantive decreases to carbon emissions. The limitations to such calculations are outlined and future work is recommended to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy while minimizing the number of sacrificed human lives.

As an emerging network paradigm, Space-Air-Ground integrated networks (SAGIN) has attracted the attentions from academia and industry. That is because SAGIN can implement seamless global coverage and connections among electronic devices in space, air, and ground spaces. Additionally, the shortages of computing and storage resources in mobile devices greatly affect the quality of experiences for intelligent applications. Hence, we devise to integrate SAGIN as an abundant resource pool into mobile edge computing environments (MEC). To facilitate efficient processing, we need to solve the optimal task offloading decisions. Different from the existing MEC task offloading solutions, we have to face some new challenges, such as the fluctuation of processing capability for an edge computing node, the uncertainty of the transmission latency caused by the heterogeneous network protocols, the uncertain amount of uploaded tasks during a period, and so on. In this paper, we firstly describe a task offloading decision problem in new challenge environments. But, we cannot use the standard robust optimization and stochastic optimization methods to obtain the optimal result under the uncertain network environments. In this paper, we propose the condition value at risk-aware distributionally robust optimization algorithm, named as CVAR-DRO, to solve the task offloading decision problem. The proposed CVAR-DRO method combines the distributionally robust optimization and the condition value at risk model for solving the optimal result. And then, We have evaluated our approach in simulation SAGIN environments with the confidence interval, the number of mobile task-offloading and the various parameters. We compare our proposed CVAR-DRO algorithm with the state-of-the-art algorithms, such as the standard robust optimization algorithm, the stochastic optimization algorithm, the DRO algorithm, and the brute algorithm. The experimental results show that CVAR-DRO can get a sub-optimal mobile task-offloading decision. Overall, CVAR-DRO is more robust than others to the new challenges mentioned above in SAGIN.

In this study we propose a semi-parametric, parsimonious Value at Risk forecasting model, based on quantile regression and machine learning methods, combined with readily available market prices of option contracts from the over-the-counter foreign exchange rate interbank market. We aim at improving existing methods for VaR prediction of currency investments using machine learning. We employ two different methods - ensemble methods and neural networks. Explanatory variables are implied volatilities with plausible economic interpretation. The forward-looking nature of the model, achieved by the application of implied volatilities as risk factors, ensures that new information is rapidly reflected in Value at Risk estimates. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to utilize information in the volatility surface, combined with machine learning and quantile regression, for VaR prediction of currency investments. The proposed ensemble models achieve good estimates across all quantiles. The light gra-dient-boosting machine model and the categorical boosting model both yield estimates which are better than, or equal to, those of the benchmark model. The neural network models are in general quite unstable.

Breaching and liquefaction are two types of coastal flow slides proposed in the literature. While their final results are similar, liquefaction and breaching failure are two different processes, with breaching failure characterized by a different progression and sand movement mechanisms. In densely packed sand, breaching causes delayed sand grain discharge and negative excess pore pressures. Liquefaction, when a mass of soil suddenly behaves like a liquid, flow out over overly gentle slopes. Flow slides typically go unnoticed until the slope fails above ground because they start below the water. Without modern technology, diving equipment, risk assessment, and probabilistic and sensitivity assessments, flow slides inherently challenging. The authors developed a new sensitivity index to detect the susceptibility of coastal flow slides. It was established a sophisticated hybrid model that accommodates flow slides in sync with unpredictable variables employed in this new sensitivity index. Innovative hybrid model has three distinctive models. The Hybrid Hydrodynamic Model addresses wave, wind, current, climate change, and sediment transfer. The Monte Carlo Simulation analyses sensitivity, and the Bayesian Network calculates joint probability of coastal flow slide parameters of this new index that includes environmental characteristics, including climate change. With the assistance of these three models, researchers aim at a) presenting a methodology for coupling coastal flow slide projections with outcomes; b) distinguishing two flow slides; c) examining variables influencing flow slides. The use of such a hybrid model and risk index offers a robust and computationally efficient approach to evaluating the critical angle slope for breaching failure.

To remain relevant in the green transition, companies are beginning to voluntarily account for the exchange of emissions in their supply chain transactions and using the resulting greenhouse gas inventories for climate resilient decision support. Market advantages of sustainability and transparency see a shift from internal decision support tools to external communication tools which potentially expose companies to the risk of uncovering greenwashing if claims are not supported by transparent data, sound modelling, and a climate just emissions inventory, which considers external impacts connected to the production system. The different methods and standards in place for such greenhouse gas inventories, despite all referring to the ISO life cycle analysis standards and guidelines, present mixed signals and leave room for different interpretations, that may ultimately lead to cascading greenwashing, misleading results, and false successes. The new GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Guidance draft addresses this in part. With the GHG Protocol moving into revision periods, we identify gaps that present barriers to companies, or allow for interpretations that goes against the intentions of reporting GHG emissions related to an activity or organisation. The literature agrees that not rectifying these subtle-ties present counterproductive decision support for the green transition’s overall goal: to reduce global emissions.

Eating Disorders (ED) constitute a serious public health issue affecting predominantly women and appearing typically in adolescence or early adulthood. EDs are extremely difficult to treat as these disorders are ego-syntonic and many patients do not seek treatment. It is vital to focus on the development of successful early-intervention programs for individuals presenting at-risk and are on a trajectory towards developing EDs. This study is a randomized controlled trial evalu-ating an innovative digital gamified Acceptance and Commitment early-intervention program (AcceptME) for young females showing signs and symptoms of an ED and at high-risk for an ED. Participants (N=92; Mage=15.30 years, SD=2.15) received either AcceptME (N=62) or a waitlist control (N=30). Analyses indicated that the AcceptME program effectively reduced weight and shape concerns, with large effects when compared to waitlist controls. Most participants scored below the at-risk cut-off (WCS score<52) in the AcceptME at end-of-intervention (57.1%) com-pared to controls (7.1%) with odds of falling into the at-risk group being 14.5 times higher for participants in the control group. At follow-up, 72% of completers reported scores below the at-risk cut-off in the AcceptME group. The intervention also resulted in a decrease in ED symp-tomatology and increased body image flexibility. Overall, results suggest that the AcceptME program holds promise for early-intervention of young women at-risk for developing an ED.

There are evidences of shared biological mechanisms between obesity and hypertension during childhood in the adulthood, and loads of research literatures have proven that, it will cost the economies and health of nations profoundly if neglected. The Prevention and early diagnosis of cardiovascular risk factors such as overweight and hypertension is an essential strategy for control, effective treatment and prevention of its’ complications. The aim of the study is to assess the effect of school based Exercise and Life style Motivation Intervention (SEAL-MI) on adolescent's cardiovascular risk factors and academic performance. An experimental study was conducted among 1005 adolescents - 520 and 485 adolescents were randomly selected for control and study group, respectively. Demographic details and the data related to dietary habits, physical activity and sleep quality were collected by a structured interview questionnaire. The study group adolescents were given the SEAL-MI for six months which includes a school based rope exercise for 45 minutes per day for 5 days a week and a motivation intervention related to dietary habits, physical activity and sleep. Post-test 1 and 2 were done after 3 and 6 months of intervention. The prevalence of overweight among adolescents was 28.73% and prehypertension was 9.26%. Among overweight adolescents, the prevalence of prehypertension was found to be very high (32.25%). In post intervention, there was a significant reduction in weight, BP (p=0.000) and improvement in dietary habits, physical activity, sleep (p=0.000) and academic performance. A significant positive correlation was found between BMI and SBP (p=0.000) and BMI and academic performance (p=0.003). The linear regression analyses revealed that the gender (ß: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.81), age (ß: 0.39, 95% CI: 0.17, 0.46), family income (ß: 0.2, 95% CI: 0.41, 0.5), residence (ß: 0.19, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.27) and type of family (ß: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.02) had the strongest correlate with the BMI of the adolescents. Also, Mother’s education Mother’s education (ß: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.18, 0.59) had the strongest correlate with the SBP of the adolescents. In contrast, the DBP was negatively persuaded by age (ß: -0.36, 95% CI: 1.54, 0.29) and gender (ß: -0.26, 95% CI: 1.34, 0.12) of the adolescents. Regular practice of rope exercise and lifestyle modification such as diet, physical activity and sleep quality among adolescents prevent and control childhood CVD risk factors like overweight, hypertension. The SEAL-MI may lead to age appropriate development of adolescents and improves their academic performance and quality of life. Giving importance to the adolescents from urban habitat, from affluent nuclear family and catching them young will bring significant change in the disease burden.

Given that the outcome of hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) with cisplatin for intrahepatic advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unclear, we aimed to compare prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) following HAIC with cisplatin versus sorafenib for intrahepatic advanced HCC using propensity score-matched analysis. We enrolled 348 patients with intrahepatic advanced HCC who received HAIC with cisplatin (n = 97) or sorafenib (n = 251) between June 2006 and March 2020. No significant difference was observed in OS between HAIC with cisplatin and sorafenib cohorts (median survival time [MST]: 13.9 vs. 12.7 months; p = 0.0989). To reduce confounding effects, 176 patients were selected using propensity score-matched analysis (n = 88 for each treatment). HAIC with cisplatin significantly prolonged OS compared with sorafenib (MST: 16.2 vs. 12.2 months; p = 0.0060). Following stratification according to the Child–Pugh classification, for both patients with class A (MST: 24.0 vs. 15.6 months; p = 0.0097) and class B (MST: 8.5 vs. 6.9 months; p = 0.0391), HAIC with cisplatin rather than sorafenib significantly prolonged OS. Our findings suggest that HAIC with cisplatin demonstrates longer prognostic effects than sorafenib in intrahepatic advanced HCC, regardless of the hepatic reserve.

To assess the presence of organochlorine pollutants (OCP) in Alaskan sub-Arctic latitudes, we analyzed ice core and meltwater samples from Jarvis Glacier, a polythermal glacier in Interior Alaska. Jarvis Glacier is receding as atmospheric warming continues throughout the region, increasing opportunity for OCP transport both englacially and into the proglacial watershed. Across all meltwater and ice core samples we identify the pesticides DDT, DDE and DDD, α- HCH and ϒ-HCH. OCP concentrations in ice core samples were highest at the 7-14 m depth (0.51 ng/L of DDT) and decreased gradually approaching the bedrock at 79m. Meltwater concentrations from the proglacial creek slightly exceeded concentrations found in the ice core, potentially indicating aggregate OCP glacial loss, with peak OCP concentration (1.12 ng/L of DDD) taken in July and potentially associated to peak melt. Ongoing use of DDT to fight Malaria in Asia, and the extended atmospheric range of HCH may account for concentrations in near-surface ice, correlating with use and atmospheric transport. The opportunity for biota bioaccumulation of OCPs, or human uptake of OCPs from glacial meltwater, may increase as glacial melt continues.

The development of small scale hydroelectric power plants in Norway is determined by natural conditions, policies, attitudes and property rights. The owner of the river is the central decision maker. It is he who decides whether he will develop the power plant himself, Whether he wants to enter into a contract with an external investor and let him develop the power plant, whether he will sell his property rights or postpone the decisions. All available choices will involve risk. In order for him to make the best choice he must find the certainty equivalent to each of the choices and choose the one with the highest certainty equivalent. This is the first time the utility theory of John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern has been applied to decision makers in the hydro power industry in Norway.

Retrogressive breach failures or coastal flow slides occur naturally in the shoreface in fine sands near dynamic tidal channels or rivers. They sometimes retrogress into beaches, shoal margins and river banks where they can threaten infrastructure and cause severe coastal erosion and flood risk. Ever since the first reports were published in the Netherlands over a century ago, attempts have been made to understand the geo-mechanical mechanism of flow slides. In this paper we have established that events, observed during the active phase, are characterized by a slow and steady retrogression into the shoreline, often continuing for many hours. This can be explained by the breaching mechanism, as elaborated in this paper. Recently, further evidence has become available in the form of video footage of active events in Australia and elsewhere, often publicly posted on the internet. All these observations justify the new term ‘retrogressive breach failure’ (RBF event). The mechanism has been confirmed in small-scale flume tests and in a large-scale field experiment. With a better understanding of the geo-mechanical mechanism, current protection methods can be better understood and new defense strategies can be envisaged. In writing this paper, we hope that the coastal science and engineering communities will better recognize and understand these intriguing natural events.

The famous Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) takes into account only business risk. In practice, companies use debt financing and operate at non–zero levels of leverage. This means that it is necessary to take into account the financial risk associated with the use of debt financing along with business one. The purpose of this paper is to simultaneously take into account the business and financial risk. A new approach to CAPM has been developed that takes into account both business and financial risk. We combine the theory of CAPM and the Modigliani–Miller (MM) theory. The first is based on portfolio analysis and accounting for business risks in relation to the market (or industry). The second one (the Modigliani–Miller (MM) theory) describes a specific company and takes into account the financial risks associated with the use of debt financing. The combination of these two different approaches makes it possible to take into account both types of risks: business and financial ones. We combine these two approaches analytically, while Hamada did it phenomenologically. Using the Modigliani–Miller (MM) theory, it is shown that the Hamada’s model, first model, used for this purpose half a century ago, is incorrect. In addition to the renormalization of the beta–coefficient, obtained in the Hamada model, two additional terms are found: the renormalized risk–free return and the term dependent on the cost of debt kd. A critical analysis of the Hamada model was carried out. The vast majority of listing companies use debt financing and are levered, and the Hamada model is not applicable to them in contrast to a new approach applicable to leveraged companies. Implemented a new approach to specific companies. A comparison of the results of the new approach with the results of the conventional CAPM is shown. Two versions of CAPM (market or industry) are considered.

This paper presents a limited scope dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (D-PRA) on the survivability of commercial of the shelf (COTS) drones tasked with surveilling areas with varying radiation levels after a nuclear accident. The D-PRA is based on a discrete-dynamic event tree (D-DET) approach, which couples with the OpenEPL error propagation framework to model sequences leading to Loss of Mission (LOM) scenarios due to component failures in the drone’s navigation system. Radiation effects are simulated by calculating the total ionizing dose (TID) against the permissible limit per component, and errors are propagated within the electronic hardware and software blocks to quantify navigation system availability per radiation zone. The proposed methods are integrated into the traditional event tree/fault tree approach and the most vulnerable components are radiation-hardened (RAD-HARD) to the extent specified by a predefined mission success criterion. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach in performing trade studies for incorporating COTS components into RAD-HARD drone designs.

: Healthcare workers are affected by mental health issues, burnout and turnover, and this burden is even greater during epidemics and pandemics, such as COVID-19. The purpose of this research is to provide an overview of the measures introduced or supported in the institutions of Quebec’s health and social services network during the COVID-19 pandemic with the aim of protecting healthcare workers’ mental health. An online questionnaire survey was administered in 2021 among human resources department personnel in health and social services network institutions involved in workplace mental health in Quebec. A total of 223 key informants representing 31 of the 34 public health and social services institutions in the province of Quebec in Canada responded to the questionnaire. Measures that focus on the needs of staff, involve all levels of authority and the ones that provide flexibility, support and recognition at work were more successful, according to the advisors surveyed. Future research into whether the same measures are considered effective or ineffective outside of a pandemic context is needed.

The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 reveals an increasing prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) from 1990 to 2019. This study delves into the role of dietary risk factors across different demographic and socioeconomic groups. Utilizing data from the GBD 2019, it analyzes age-adjusted T2DM metrics—death counts, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Age-Standardized Rates (ASR)—stratified by age, sex, and region. The study employed Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) to track trends over time. Results show that in 2019, 26.07% of T2DM mortality and 27.08% of T2DM DALYs were attributable to poor diets, particularly those low in fruits and high in red and processed meats. Geographic variations in T2DM trends were significant, with regions like Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia experiencing the most substantial increases in Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) and Age-Standardized DALY Rate (ASDR). A positive correlation was noted between Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and T2DM burden due to dietary risk factors. The study concludes that targeted public health initiatives promoting dietary changes could substantially reduce the global T2DM burden.

In this work, the Pumped Storage Unit (PSU) is proposed to be integrated with wind-thermal generation system owned by a company whose aim is to maximize its profit through optimal self-scheduling of its units by finding the best bidding strategy in day-ahead energy market. The mathematical formulation of the scenario based unit-commitment and coordinated trading problem is formulated as a stochastic mixed integer linear program. The formulation takes into account several uncertain parameters; such as the wind power generation, energy market prices, and imbalances up/down prices. The expected total profit obtained from energy trading with and without coordinating pumped storage system (PSS) with thermal-wind generation system were compared, and a significant improvement in profit resulted from coordination was observed. Furthermore, coordination between PSS and wind-thermal generation improve the conditional value at risk (CVaR) which monitors the biding risk level.

The paper discusses how joint damage and deterioration affect the seismic response of existing reinforced concrete frames with sub-standard beam-column joints. The available simplified modeling techniques are critically reviewed to propose a robust, yet computationally efficient technique for simulating the nonlinear behavior of substandard beam-column joints. Improvements over the existing models include simulation of the cyclic deterioration of joint stiffness and strength as well as pinching in the hysteretic response, implemented considering a deteriorating hysteretic rule. A fibre-section forced-based inelastic beam-column element is developed; considering improved material models and fixed-end rotation due to bond failure, rebars-slip and inelastic extension, to simulate the deteriorating cyclic behavior of existing pre-cracked beam-column members. For the assessment of frames with substandard exterior beam-column joints, a nonlinear model for the exterior joint is developed and validated through a full-scale quasi-static cyclic test performed on a substandard T-joint connection. The proposed model allows considering structural performance in risk assessment while accounting for true inelastic mechanisms at the joints.

The interrelatedness of social-structural aspects and psychological features with the vaccination intention provides the context to explore personal psychological fea-tures related to general decision-making and vaccine-related dispositions, and their contribution to the intention to vaccinate, within post-pandemic circumstances, after the imposed possibility of choosing a vaccine brand. The aim of our study was to map the function (promotive, protective, risk, vulnerability) of a set of psychological aspects in the intention to vaccinate, in people with different social roles regarding the vaccination. We surveyed three samples of people: healthcare providers (HPs), parents, and lay people, within the context of the after-pandemic. Negative vaccine attitudes lower intention to vaccinate in all regression models (all βs ranging from -.128 to -.983, all ps < .01). The main results indicate that, regardless of the sam-ple/social role, there is a shared attitudinal core for positive vaccination intention. This core consists of [high] trust in large corporations, government, and healthcare systems, as well as perceived consensus on vaccine safety/efficacy and experience of freedom (protective factors), and [low] vaccination conspiracy beliefs, trust in social media, and choice overload (risk and vulnerability factors, respectively). There are no common promotive factors of intention to vaccinate; for parents, perceived consensus on vaccines, and trust in corporations and the healthcare system play such roles, for HPs experience of freedom is obtained as a unique promotive factor. In contrast, for laypeople, no unique promotive factors were found. These results and guidelines for the promotion of positive vaccination behavior are further discussed.

Background: we aim to investigate attitudes toward vaccination, by analyzing empirical factors associated with vaccine acceptance in the Lazio region mpox vaccination (MpoxVax) campaign in Italy. Methods: all subjects who accessed to MpoxVax and signed the informed consent were prospectively enrolled in the MPOX-VAC Study and were asked to fill out an anonymous survey. Two endpoints were selected: ‘delayed acceptance’ and ‘early acceptance’, defined as access for vaccination &gt;60 and ≤30 days from the vaccination campaign starting (VCS), respectively. Results: over the study period 1717 individuals underwent vaccination: 129 (7%) &gt;60 [1588 (92.5%) ≤60] and 676 (60%) ≤30 days from VCS. A bisexual orientation, a lower education level and a worse perceived physical and mental health were associated with delayed access to vaccination. Being Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) users and, marginally, HIV positive, having a high perceived risk for mpox infection and reporting high-risk behaviors like the use of recreational drugs/chems, sex under the influence of drugs and/or alcohol and higher number of principal sexual partners, were associated with early access to vaccination. Conclusions: according to our data, risk awareness was a major determinant of early mpox vaccination acceptance. Conversely, worse perceived health status and a low educational level were critical factors associated with delayed vaccination.

Background: Only few studies have studied the link between risk perception and sleep in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the effect of two distinct risk appraisals—risk perception and perception of collective coordinated defense (PCCD) on Chinese adults’ sleep quality during the COVID-19 pandemic, and tested COVID-19-related fear and rumination as potential mediators of the relationships. Methods: Data were collected using a self-report online questionnaire from a sample of 224 Chinese adults during the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong. Results: COVID-19 risk perception and PCCD were related to poor sleep quality. Mediation analysis showed that both fear and rumination mediated the relationship between risk perception and sleep quality, whereas only fear mediated the relationship between PCCD and sleep quality. The model showed an excellent fit to the data and accounted for 44% of the variance in sleep quality in Chinese adults. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the distinct perceptual processes—risk appraisals in particular—contributed to poor sleep quality in Chinese adults during the COVID-19 public emergencies. These findings would be helpful for policy makers to address the sleep problems induced by psychological consequences of the pandemic.

Confusion, fear and mixed sentiments prevail in the minds of people towards what is arguably one of the most important of dynamics of modern human society: Artificial Intelligence (AI). This study aims to explore the contributions of news media towards this phenomenon - we analyze nearly seventy thousand recent news headlines on AI, using natural language processing (NLP) informatics methods, machine learning (ML) and large language models (LLMs) to draw insights and discover dominant themes. Our theoretical framework was derived from extant literature which posits the power of fear producing articles and news headlines which produce significant impacts on public behavior even when available in small quantities. We applied extensive textual informatics methods using word and phrase frequency analytics, sentiment analysis and human experts based thematic analysis to discover insights on AI phobia inducing news headlines. Our rigorous analysis of nearly seventy thousand headlines using multiple validation methods in NLP (exploratory informatics including BERT, Llama 2 and Mistral based topic identification), ML (supervised informatics) and LLMs (neural nets for sentiment classification, with BERT, Llama 2 and Mistral) demonstrates the presence of an unreasonable level of emotional negativity and fear inducing verbiage in AI news headlines. The framing of AI as being dangerous or as being an existential threat to humanity can have a profound impact on public perception, and the resulting AI phobia and confusion in public perceptions are inherently detrimental to the science of AI. Furthermore, this can also impact AI policy and regulations, and harm society. We conclude with a discussion deducing implications for society and make recommendations for education and policies that could support human identity and dignity.

Several cities are experiencing an increase in flood hazard and exposure, and consequentially in flood risk, attributable to the coupled effect of climate change and urbanization. Non-structural protection strategies demonstrate significant potential in the short term for mitigating hydraulic risk in urban areas, particularly where the implementation of structural measures is impeded by a complex urban environment. This work proposes an Early Warning System (EWS) for fluvial floods developed for the city of Palermo (Italy). It is based on the preliminary definition of po-tential Flood Event Scenarios (FESs) as a function of typical potential precursors. Each FES pre-dicts first points of flooding, flood areas and water depths, also providing specific hazard maps for people, vehicles, and buildings. The EWS uses rainfall depth-duration thresholds to assess the expected hydrograph as a function of rainfall forecasts and the water stage observed in real time at an upstream section of the river crossing the city. This last also allows for estimating the ante-cedent wetness conditions. Based on this information, the EWS retrieves an expected FES from a pre-built library with a preannouncement time up to 36 h. The EWS is here successfully tested on a historical flood event.

The complexity of plastic polymers and even more so of additives has increased enormously in recent years. This makes the high-quality recycling of mixed plastic waste considerably more difficult. Some additives have now been strictly regulated or even completely banned for good reasons ('legacy additives'). Material or mechanical recycling generally utilises old plastics that still contain these substances. Consequently, products that are manufactured using such recyclates are contaminated with these harmful substances. We therefore recommend avoiding the use of these recyclates for products with intensive contact with consumers until further notice. We also show that the climate policy challenges for the plastics (and chemical) industry necessitate a defossilisation ('feedstock change'). This turnaround can only succeed if solely high-quality recycling takes place in future; recyclates should primarily replace virgin plastics. This can only work if used plastics with a high degree of homogeneity and known formulation are collected separately, as is already the case today with PET bottles. In this context, we would like to point out inconsistencies in the current legislation on the European emissions trading system.

Debates on climate change challenges around the world are moving in favour of nature-based solutions (NBS) as potential mitigation and adaptation options. Mangroves and associated blue carbon ecosystems are nature-based solutions against sea level rise and other coastal hazards. As such, protecting the existing mangrove forests and restoration of the degraded areas is integral in this aspect. However, conventional mangrove restoration approaches in high-energy areas result in poor performance due to the removal of seedlings by waves. Here, we assessed the efficacy of using modified Riley Encasement Methods in the restoration of eroding intertidal areas of Gazi Bay, Kenya. Vegetation and soil baseline data were collected in 49 square plots of 100m2; established along belt transects perpendicular to the waterline. The following mangrove vegetation data was collected; species composition, tree height (m), and stem diameter (cm); from which the importance value index (IV), basal area and standing density (stems/ha) were derived. Sediment cores were made in the center of each square plot for carbon and grain size analysis. Mangrove (Rhizophora mucronata) planting adopted a randomized complete block design (RCBD) in which the planting area was divided into three blocks (A, B, C). Within each block, treatments (bamboo and different-sized PVC pipes) were randomly assigned locations. Results show that seedlings grown within PVC encasements had high survival and growth rates, surpassing bamboo and control groups. This implies that PVC pipes offer better protection from external factors. These findings are critical in highlighting potential enhancements for the effectiveness of PVC pipes in mangrove restoration. They also reinforce on the need to consider the incorporation of PVC encasements as an alternative mangrove restoration technique in high-energy locations.

Retinoids are vitamin A derivatives and include trans-retinoic acid, isotretinoin, tamibarotene, and bexarotene, all of which are currently available for clinical use. The clinical development of retinoid therapy for neuroblastoma has a history spanning more than four decades. The most promising agent is isotretinoin, which can contribute to improving event-free survival in patients with high-risk neuroblastoma by approximately 10 % when administered over six months as maintenance therapy. Although isotretinoin is regarded as an essential component in the standard clinical management of high-risk neuroblastoma, its use for this purpose in the US and EU is off-label. To promote isotretinoin use in Japan as a treatment for neuroblastoma, our clinical research team is planning to launch an investigator-initiated, registration-directed clinical trial. The present review article discusses the basic science behind retinoid therapy, pre-clinical / clinical evidence on neuroblastoma, the concept of the proposed clinical trial, and prospects for this therapy.

Cervical carcinogenesis is the leading cause of cancer related death in women and the role of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) as a possible risk factor in the development of this cancer is well recognised. Despite the availability of multi-therapeutic approaches, there is still a major concern regarding the prevention of metastatic dissemination and excessive tissue injuries. Therefore, it is imperative to develop a safer and more efficient treatment modality. Ficus Carica, a natural plant, has shown potential therapeutic properties through its fruit latex when applied to HPV-positive cervical cancer cell lines. However, the mechanisms of action of Ficus Carica (fig) latex are not well understood. This study aims to provide a deeper insight into the biological activities of fig latex on human cervical cancer cell lines expressing high-risk HPV types 16 and 18. The data obtained from this study reveals that fig latex influences the expression of genes in-volved in "Class I MHC-mediated antigen presentation" as well as "Antigen processing: Ubiquitination and Proteasome degradation." These genes play a crucial role in host immune surveillance and the resolution of infection. Findings from this study suggest that fig latex may enhance T cell responses against oncogenic HPV, which could be beneficial for the clearance of early-stage cancer.

Abstract: This is a retrospective study of patients admitted to Jackson Hospital, Montgomery, Alabama with a diagnosis of COVID-19 from January 1, 2021, to February 15, 2022. The independent variable used in the models were patient sex, age, race, BMI category, daily D-dimer categories, categories of anticoagulation doses (Enoxaparin 40 mg VS. Enoxaparin 80 mg VS Enoxaparin 1mg/kg or equivalent), bleeding episodes, and vaccination status. The three different categories of anticoagulation doses were considered for the purpose of the study. Results: The study reviewed a total of one hundred (100) hospitalized patients. Intermediate-dose anticoagulation was found to be the optimal dose as only fourteen percent (14%) patients died compared to a thirty-six percent (36%) and fifty percent (57%) death rate among those treated with low-dose and high-dose anticoagulation, respectively. The multivariate linear regression model predicting patient oxygen requirements revealed D-Dimer and bleeding status to be statistically significant predictors with a p value of <0.01. For the patients who had a D-dimer value ≥ 2 µg/mL, the oxygenation requirement was predicted to be 31 L higher than those with a D-dimer <2 µg/mL (99% CI; p<0.01). When mean D-dimer and corresponding oxygen requirements were calculated per hospitalization days category, the D-dimer levels and oxygen requirements were noted to follow the same trends indicating both values tended to increase and decrease simultaneously. Conclusion: The study concludes daily D-dimer trends can predict COVID-19 patient survival or daily oxygen requirements indicating D-dimer can be the miracle molecule for COVID-19 prognosis.

A critical aspect of coronary heart disease (CHD) care and secondary prevention is ensuring patients have access to evidence-based information. The purpose of this review is to summarise the guiding principles, content, context and timing of information and education that is beneficial for supporting people with CHD and potential communication strategies including digital interventions. We conducted a scoping review involving searching four databases (Web of Science, PubMed, CINAHL, Medline) for articles published from January 2000 to August 2022. Literature was identified through title and abstract screening by expert reviewers. Evidence was synthesised according to the review aims. Results demonstrated that information-sharing, decision-making, goal-setting, positivity and practicality are important aspects of secondary prevention and should be patient-centred and evidenced based with consideration of patient need and preference. Initiation and duration of education is highly variable between and within people, but hence communication and support should be regular and ongoing. In conclusion, text messaging programs, smartphone applications and wearable devices are examples of digital health strategies that facilitate education and support for patients with heart disease. There is no one size fits all approach that suits all patients at all stages and hence flexibility and a suite of resources and strategies is optimal.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has achieved significant results in many Machine Learning (ML) benchmarks. In this short survey we provide an overview of DRL applied to trading on financial markets, including a short meta-analysis using Google Scholar, with an emphasis on using hierarchy for dividing the problem space as well as using model-based RL to learn a world model of the trading environment which can be used for prediction. In addition, multiple risk measures are defined and discussed, which not only provide a way of quantifying the performance of various algorithms, but they can also act as (dense) reward-shaping mechanisms for the agent. We discuss in detail the various state representations used for financial markets, which we consider critical for the success and efficiency of such DRL agents. The market in focus for this survey is the cryptocurrency market.

(1) Aims: To analyse the relationship between demographic and clinical characteristics and particular kinds of suicidal behaviour and its relationship with a nurse-led suicide prevention program. (2) Methods: A 5-year cross-sectional study design. Study performed in the region of Osona (Catalonia) during 2013-2017. Suicidal behaviour was classified as suicidal ideation, interrupted self-directed violence, suicide attempt and completed suicide. (3) Results: The sample included 753 patients ─ of whom 53 died by suicide─ and encompassed 931 suicidal behaviour episodes. Men represented 38.4% of the sample but 81.1% of deaths by suicide. Mental disorders were associated with suicidal behaviour in 75.4% of the sample. 66.4% of the individuals were engaged in the nurse-led Suicidal Behaviour Case Management Program, of which 0.8% (n=4) died by suicide. (4) Conclusion: The main risk factors were female sex for suicidal behaviour, and male sex and older age for suicide. Mental disorders, widowhood and retirement were also associated with suicide. A high proportion of patients was engaged to the nurse-led suicide prevention program with a low proportion of suicides.

COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) is a pandemic disease with an estimated mortality rate of 3.4% (estimated by the WHO as of March 3, 2020). Until now there is no antiviral drug and vaccine for COVID-19. The current overwhelming situation by COVID-19 patients in hospitals is likely to increase in the next few months. About 15 percent of patients with serious disease in COVID-19 require immediate health services. Rather than waiting for new anti-viral drugs or vaccines that take a few months to years to develop and test, several researchers and public health agencies are attempting to repurpose medicines that are already approved for another similar disease and have proved to be fairly effective. This study aims to identify FDA approved drugs that can be used for drug repurposing and identify biomarkers among high- risk and asymptomatic groups. In this study gene-disease association related to COVID-19 reported mild, severe symptoms and clinical outcomes were determined. The high-risk group was studied related to SARS-CoV-2 viral entry and life cycle by using Disgenet and compared with curated COVID-19 gene data sets from the CTD database. The overlapped gene sets were enriched and the selected genes were constructed for protein-protein interaction networks. Through interactome, key genes were identified for COVID-19 and also for high risk and asymptomatic groups. The key hub genes involved in COVID-19 were VEGFA, TNF, IL-6, CXCL8, IL10, CCL2, IL1B, TLR4, ICAM1, MMP9. The identified key genes were used for drug-gene interaction for drug repurposing. The chloroquine, lenalidomide, pentoxifylline, thalidome, sorafenib, pacitaxel, rapamycin, cortisol, statins were proposed to be probable drug repurposing candidates for the treatment of COVID-19. However, these predicted drug candidates need to be validated through randomized clinical trials. Also, a key gene involved in high risk and the asymptomatic group were identified, which can be used as probable biomarkers for early identification.

Risk-based redispatch optimization is proposed as a methodology to support the Transmission System Operator (TSO) with preventive remedial actions obtained by extending the security constrained unit commitment/economic dispatch with constraints resulting from the risk assessed for the power system. Although being heuristic, the methodology is based on comprehensive dynamic security assessment as time-domain simulations are used, allowing to express the degree of all types of instabilities, e.g., caused by contingencies, in monetary terms. Therefore, the risk is assessed as the expected value of the cost incurred by the TSO. Such approach forms a new pathway to including risk in planning procedures already used by TSOs. Results obtained for the IEEE39 dynamic power system, with costs assigned to load shedding and generator tripping due to single transmission lines short-circuits, are shown as a reference case.

In this paper, we study a generalised CIR process with externally-exciting and self-exciting jumps, and focus on the distributional properties and applications of this process and its aggregated process. The first and second moments of this jump-diffusion process are used to calculate the insurance premium based on mean-variance principle. The Laplace transform of the aggregated process is derived, and this leads to an application for pricing default-free bonds which could capture the impacts of both exogenous and endogenous shocks. Illustrative numerical examples and comparisons with other models are also provided.

We investigated and quantified bacterial accumulation in facemasks used by the general population, using 16S rRNA (Sanger Sequencing), culture and biochemical analysis along with Rose Bengal staining. Additionally, a systematic overview of the literature on face mask contamination was undertaken. We found an average bacterial load of 4.24 × 10⁴ CFU recovered/mask, with a maximum load of 2.85 × 10⁵ CFU. This maximum is 310 times higher than the limit value for contamination of ventilation system outlet surfaces specified by the German standard VDI 6022. Biochemical and molecular identification predominantly found Staphylococcus species (80%), including Staphylococcus aureus, along with endospore-forming Bacillus spp. Literature reports also indicate contamination of masks by bacterial and fungal opportunists of the genera Acinetobacter, Aspergillus, Alternaria, Bacillus, Cadosporium, Candida, Escherichia, Enterobacter, Enterococcus, Klebsiella (including K. pneumoniae), Micrococcus, Microsporum, Mucor, Pseudomonas, Staphylococcus and Streptococcus. Bacterial counts increase linearly with wearing duration, and prolonged use may affect the skin and respiratory microbiomes, promoting consequential eye, skin, oral and airway conditions. These aspects underscore the urgent need for further research and a risk-benefit analysis in respect of mask use, particularly given their unproven efficacy in disrupting the transmission of respiratory viruses and their adverse social consequences.

Objectives To develop and validate a prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality among adult patients critically ill with COVID-19 in the UK. Design Observational cohort study. Setting 287 adult critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, of which 260 admitted at least one eligible patient. Participants 10,933 patients with confirmed COVID-19 of whom 10,401 were eligible (excluding 532 patients with a duration of critical care less than 24 hours and 1 patient with unknown 28-day outcome): 8,666 development (March-April 2020) and 1,735 temporal validation (May-August 2020). Main outcome measures 28-day in-hospital mortality from start of critical care. Results Two models were developed using 14 patient level predictors selected from 30 candidate predictors, with and without adjustment for calendar time. In the temporal validation data, the model discrimination was maintained (c index 0.78) but calibration was poor, particularly for the model not adjusted for calendar time (ratio of observed to predicted mortality 0.74 versus 0.88 for the model adjusted for calendar time). Conclusions We developed and validated a prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality for patients critically ill with COVID-19. Although absolute predictions were inaccurate due to changing outcomes, the models will support risk-adjustment in analyses and monitoring changes in risk-adjusted outcome over time.

Patients with pT1 high-grade (HG) bladder cancer (BC) and a very high risk of progression might benefit from immediate radical cystectomy (RC), but this option remains controversial. Validation of a standardized method to evaluate the extent of lamina propria (LP) invasion (with recognized prognostic value) in transurethral resections (TURBT) specimens is still needed. The Rete Oncologica Lombarda (ROL) system showed a high predictive value for progression after TURBT in recent retrospective studies. Our aim was to validate ROL system on a large mono-institutional prospective series of primary urothelial carcinomas. From 2016 to 2020, we adopted ROL for all patients with pT1 HG BC on TURBT. We employed a 1.0-mm threshold to stratify tumors in ROL1 and ROL2. A total of 222 pT1HGBC were analyzed. Median age was 74 years, with male predominance (73.8%). ROL was feasible in all cases: 91 cases were ROL1 (41%) and 131 ROL2 (59%). At a median follow up of 26.9 months (IQR 13.8-40.6), we registered 80 recurrences and 40 progressions. ROL was a significant predictor of tumor progression at both univariable (HR 3.53; CI 95% 1.56 – 7.99; p&lt;0.01) and multivariable (HR 2.90; CI 95% 1.25 – 6.75; p=0.01) Cox regression analyses. At Kaplan-Meier estimates, ROL showed correlation with both PFS (p=0.0012) and RFS (p=0.0167). Our results confirmed the strong predictive value of ROL for progression on a large prospective series. We encourage the application of ROL for reporting the extent of LP invasion, substaging T1 HG BC, and improving risk tables for urological decision making.

Obesity is a worldwide epidemic; hence it is crucial to understand how it can be effectively prevented/treated. Thus, obesity should be tackled considering that it is a multifactorial condition. This work examines a wide range of factors and attempts to understand which contribute most to variability in overweight/obesity. Eighty-four subjects with overweight/obesity were recruited. Dietary baseline information was obtained by analyzing three 24-hour recalls. Resting metabolic rate was measured using indirect calorimetry, physical activity through accelerometry, cardiometabolic parameters were determined in blood samples and body composition by anthropometry and bioimpedance. Factor analysis of principal components (PCA) was carried out (SPSS v22.0). Large interindividual variability was observed in dietetic, biochemical, and physical activity measurements (coefficient of variation ≥30%), but body composition was homogeneous. Volunteers had an unbalanced diet and low physical activity. PCA reduced the 26 analyzed variables into 7 factors, accounting for 81,5% of total data variability. The main factor was the ‘‘caloric and lipid factor’’ related to diet, responsible for 25.9% of total variability, followed by ‘‘adiposity factor’’ (16,9%) and ‘‘cardiometabolic risk factor’’ (13,2%). Diet seems to be the factor that contributes the most to data variability in people with overweight/obesity, especially the intake of lipids, energy and proteins.

This paper explores the application of fisheries management theories to broader environmental issues, including climate change and biodiversity conservation. It underscores the inherent trade-off in fisheries between yield and resource conservation, identifying harvesting as a significant environmental burden. Early recognition of the sustainability concept aimed to address challenges like economic discounts and the tragedy of the commons, contributing to the issue of overfishing. These insights extend beyond fisries to other environmental concerns, particularly climate change. The development of adaptive management, initially tailored to address uncertainties and non-stationarity in fisheries, has found application in diverse environmental issues. Recognizing humans as integral parts of ecosystems highlights the impossibility of achieving zero environmental impact when utilizing natural resources. The paper advocates for passive restoration to prevent overfishing, leveraging nature's resilience. While goals like complete biodiversity restoration are inherent in fisheries, their relevance may not be immediately apparent to other environmentalists. Despite ongoing discussions on the sustainability of ecosystem services, legislation often tends to favor the long-term maximization of fisheries yield. The paper calls for mutual understanding of theories and experiences across various environmental fields, including fisheries, to enhance collaborative efforts in each field.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the acceptability and feasibility of a theory-derived sedentary workplace intervention (single arm, pre-post design) for police office staff. Twenty-four staff participated in an 8-week intervention incorporating an education session, team competition with quick response (QR) codes, team trophy, and weekly leaderboard newsletters, a self-monitoring phone app, and electronic prompt tools. The intervention supported participants to reduce and break up their sitting time with three minutes of incidental movement every 30 minutes at work. Feasibility and acceptability were assessed using mixed methods via the RE-AIM QuEST and PRECIS-2 frameworks. The intervention was highly pragmatic in terms of eligibility, organisation, adherence, outcome, and analysis. It was slightly less pragmatic on recruitment and setting. Delivery and follow-up were more explanatory. Reach and adoption indicators demonstrated feasibility among police staff, across a range of departments, who were demographically similar to participants in previous office-based multi-component interventions. The intervention was delivered mostly as planned with minor deviations from protocol (Implementation fidelity). Participants perceived the intervention components as highly acceptable. Preliminary results showed improvements in workplace sitting and standing, as well as small improvements in weight and positive affect. Evaluation of the intervention in a fully powered randomised controlled trial to assess behaviour and health outcomes is recommended.

In light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programs will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. Our capacity to identify which viruses are capable of zoonotic emergence depends on the existence of a technology—a machine learning model or other informatic system—that leverages available data on known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the findings of an interdisciplinary workshop on zoonotic risk technologies to answer the following questions: What are the prerequisites, in terms of open data, equity, and interdisciplinary collaboration, to the development and application of those tools? What effect could the technology have on global health? Who would control that technology, who would have access to it, and who would benefit from it? Would it improve pandemic prevention? Could it create new challenges?

The introduction of the Internet of Things (IoT), i.e. the interconnection of embedded devices over the Internet, has changed the world we live in from the way we measure, make calls, print information and even the way we get energy in our offices or homes. The convenience of IoT products, like CCTV cameras, IP phones, and oscilloscopes, is overwhelming for end-users. In parallel, however, security issues have emerged and it is essential for infrastructure providers to assess the associated security risks. In this paper, we propose a novel method to detect IoT devices and identify the manufacturer, device model, and the firmware version currently running on the device using the page source from the web user interface. We performed automatic scans of the large-scale network at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) to evaluate our approach. Our tools identified 233 IoT devices that fell into eleven distinct device categories and included 49 device models manufactured by 26 vendors from across the world.

Accurate and reliable project cost estimates are fundamental to achieve successful municipal capital improvement (CIP) programs. Engineering cost estimates typically represent critical information for key decision makers to authorize and efficiently allocate the necessary funds for construction, budgeting, to generate a request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, etc. for these reasons, cost estimators are using different estimating methods and approaches that allow for required levels of accuracy. As the project’s scope becomes more detailed and the potential risks are identified and/or the project design stage progresses these cost estimates are revised and updated. In this paper, the most common project cost estimation methods and approaches were collected and categorized into two main groups of (1) probabilistic and (2) deterministic methods. Under these groups overall ten different methods were identified and discussed addressing their requirements, advantages, and shortcomings, including the potential risk that can positively or negatively affect the project’s cost outcome. This paper will be a good resource for professionals who are in budget development and/or are seeking to a better understanding of different methods in determining an appropriate base cost margin and produce a meaningful and reliable project cost estimate.

The purpose of work is to quantify the changes of the organism functional reserves during the successive phases of the human health Space-Time Continuum (STC) on the basis of postulates of reliability complex systems theory. The study is devoted to the problem of age-related human involution, which is evaluated not from the causal, but from the kinetic point of view. The analysis of 10 most important basic life support systems of human body — cardiovascular (CVS), respiratory (RS), nervous (NS), digestive (DS), endocrine (ES), immune (IS), excretory (EXS), brain (BS), musculo-skeletal (MSS), hematopoietic (HS) was carried out. Based on this analysis two levels of ensuring the reliability of organism’s work were revealed: sequential and parallel. The system of logical equations for reduced sequential system is: Ys1 = CVS ∧ RS ∧ BS, where ∧ is the notation for the conjunctions of set elements. The system of logical equations for the reduced parallel system is: Ys2 = NS ∨ DS ∨ ES ∨ IS ∨ HS ∨ EXS ∨ MSS ,where ∨ is the disjunction of the scheme elements. Visualization of human STC changes the concept of the kinetics of age-related changes in the organism and the role of determinants of health as a stable factor accompanying a uniform, smooth transition from the most pronounced functions of the body to their gradual extinction. For human STC is formulated the following regularity kinetics of involutionary processes: after 30 years of age in the human body morphological changes regress in arithmetic progression, and the functions of organs in a geometric one. Assumption of health as a state redundancy of functions is suggested.

The scarcity and pollution of freshwater are extremely crucial issues today and the expansion of water reuse have been considered as an option to reduce its impact. This study aims to assess the efficiency of an integrated greywater treatment system and hydroponic lettuce production as a part of a green wall structure and to evaluate the health risk associated with the production and consumption of lettuce through quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and chemical health risk assessment. The study was conducted based on the unique configuration of source separation system; on-site greywater treatment system; green wall structure as a polishing step; and hydroponic lettuce production in the green wall structure. The final effluent from the system was used to grow three lettuce varieties by adding urine as a nutrient solution. Both water samples and plant biomass were collected and tested for E. coli and heavy metals contamination. The system has gained a cumulative 5.1 log10 reduction of E. coli in the final effluent and no E. coli found in the plant biomass. QMRA results indicated that the system attained the health-based targets, 10–6 DALYs per person per year. Similarly, health risk index (HRI) and targeted hazard quotient (THQ) results did not exceed the permissible level, thus the chemical health risk concern was insignificant.

Background: Macrophage inflammatory protein-1 alpha (MIP-1α) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are pro-inflammatory biomarkers that quantify clinical and subclinical inflammation in cardiac ischemia in cardiac inflammation and disease. Adiponectin is an anti-inflammatory marker associated with good health. The susceptibility of periodontitis patients to cardiovascular events needs to be evaluated. Objective: This study aims to assess the levels of biomarkers in periodontitis patients with and without acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared to controls. Material and methods: Pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory analytes were examined by collecting unstimulated saliva from three groups (n = 20/each): healthy individuals, individuals with stage III periodontitis, and post-myocardial infarction patients with stage III periodontitis. The samples were collected within 48 hours of AMI. Results: Adiponectin levels were significantly lower in patients with periodontitis with and without AMI compared to controls, while CRP and MIP-1α were significantly higher in patients with periodontitis with and without AMI compared to controls. The highest titers for MIP-1α and CRP were detected among patients with periodontitis with and AMI. Conclusion: Our study provides evidence of the association between periodontitis and salivary analytes that occur in tandem with cardiovascular disease. The lower levels of Adiponectin and higher levels of CRP and MIP-1α in patients with periodontitis indicate that this condition is a potential risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The findings emphasize the importance of early detection and intervention for periodontitis patients to prevent cardiovascular events.

Wave energy converter (WEC) arrays deployed in coastal regions may create physical disturbances potentially resulting in environmental stresses. Presently, limited information is available on the nature of these physical disturbance or the resultant effects. A quantitative Spatial Environmental Assessment Tool (SEAT) for evaluating potential effects of wave energy converter (WEC) arrays on nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport is presented for the central Oregon coast (USA) through coupled numerical model simulations of an array of WECs. Derived climatological wave conditions were used as inputs to the model to allow for the calculation of risk metrics associated with various hydrodynamic and sediment transport variables such as maximum shear stress, bottom velocity, and change in bed elevation. The risk maps provided simple, quantitative, and spatially-resolved means of evaluating physical changes in the vicinity of a hypothetical WEC array in response to varying wave conditions. Near-field risk of sediment mobility was determined to be moderate in the lee of the densely spaced array, where the potential for increased sediment deposition could result in benthic habitat alteration. Modifications to the nearshore sediment deposition and erosion patterns were observed near headlands and topographic features, which could have implications for littoral sediment transport. The results illustrate the benefits of a risk evaluation tool for facilitating coastal resource management at early market marine renewable energy sites.

High fructose and sugar-sweetened soft drink (SSSD) intakes are associated with elevated blood uric acid concentrations and increased risk of gout and cardiovascular disease. Fruits are naturally high in fructose but their effect on cardiometabolic risk is unknown. We examined the effect on serum uric acid and cardiometabolic risk factors of consuming fructose from either fruit or SSSD in overweight adults. 48 healthy, overweight (BMI≥ 28 kg/m²) men (n=21) and women (n=20) were randomised to either a fruit (n = 19) or SSSSD (n = 22) intervention for 4 weeks. The fruit group received 6 items of fresh and dried fruit per day and the SSSD group received 955ml of SSSD per day with treatments matched for energy and fructose content. Serum uric acid concentrations were significantly reduced in men in the fruit group compared to the SSSD group (difference 57.2 μmol/L [95% CI: 16.4, 98.0], p= 0.008) but there was no difference amongst women (1.3 μmol/L [95%CI: -9.5, 6.9], p= 0.295). There differences in weight change or other cardiometabolic risk factors. These findings suggest no need to restrict fruit intake in individuals with elevated serum uric acid concentrations, such as those with gout.

There is a growing concern about climate change being a serious threat to insurance business sustainability. Knowing if climate warming is a cause for claims and losses increase, and how this cause-effect relationship will develop in the future are two open major questions. In this article, we answer both questions by particularizing the geographical area of Spain, and a precise risk, hailstorm in crop insurance in the line of business of wine grapes. We measure climate change thanks to the Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We use a database containing all the claims caused by hail risk in Spain from 1990 to 2022. With homogenized data, we consider as dependent variables the monthly number of claims, monthly number of loss costs equal to one, and monthly total losses. The independent variable is the monthly Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We try to explain the former through the latter using regression and quantile regression models. Our main finding is that climate change as measured by SACI explains these three dependent variables. We also give an estimation of the increase of the monthly total losses Value at Risk, corresponding to a future increase in climate change measured in units of SACI. Spanish crop insurance managers should carefully incorporate these conclusions into their decision-making process to keep this line of business sustainable in the future.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), locally known as Khaliji, is a group of six Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health concern in the GCC region, but the research that synthesized the trend has received scant attention. The present narrative review examines existing research on the prevalence and frequency of IPV among Khaliji women in GCC nations. This review synthesized studies on physical violence, sexual violence, emotional abuse, and controlling behaviors perpetrated by an intimate partner. The prevalence rates of IPV among Khaliji women are observed to be high: women reported facing different types of abuse from their partners, namely physical (7% - 71%), sexual (3.7% - 81%), financial (21.3% - 26%) and psychological (7.5% - 89%), which is a culmination of controlling behavior (36.8%), emotional (22% - 69%) and social violence (34%). The extant studies in the GCC suggest that the most endorsed IPV was psychological abuse (89%) followed by sexual violence (81%). Qualitative content analysis of the associated factors resulted in four meaningful descriptors such as demographics of the victim, sociocultural factors, socioeconomic, and perpetrator-related issues. The study on IPV is still nascent and few. The way forward will require developing culturally appropriate interventions that address unique risk factors for IPV among Khaliji populations, strengthening institutional responses, and increasing awareness and social support for the victim of IPV.

Ménière's disease (MD) has an unclear cause. The microvascular dysregulation of the inner ear has been increasingly pointed as a potential contributor. This study investigates the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) in MD patients compared to those with posterior circulation cerebral infarction (POCI). CVRFs like hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, obesity, coronary heart disease, and smoking were assessed in both MD and POCI patients. Brain MRI identified POCI etiology as "small vessel occlusion" (SVO) or "other etiology" (OE). The study included 64 MD and 84 POCI patients. Compared to MD, POCI OE showed a higher prevalence of CVRFs across various age groups, including hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and smoking. Notably, the odds of having POCI OE were significantly higher for individuals with hypertension and smoking. On the other hand, POCI SVO showed similar prevalence of CVRFs compared to MD. This study reveals no significant difference in CVRF prevalence between MD and smaller vessel POCI. However, a clear distinction emerges when comparing MD to POCI with involvement of larger blood vessels. Further research is needed to confirm these findings and explore potential shared risk factors between POCI (SVO) and MD.

The infections caused by various bacterial pathogens both in clinical and community settings represent a significant threat to public healthcare worldwide. The growing resistance to antimicrobial drugs acquired by bacterial species causing healthcare-associated infections has already become a life-threatening danger noticed by the World Health Organization. Several groups or lineages of bacterial isolates usually called ‘the clones of high risk’ often drive the spread of resistance within particular species. Thus, it is vitally important to reveal and track the spread of such clones and the mechanisms by which they acquire antibiotic resistance and enhance their survival skills. Currently, the analysis of whole genome sequences for bacterial isolates of interest is increasingly used for these purposes, including epidemiological surveillance and developing of spread prevention measures. However, the availability and uniformity of the data derived from the genomic sequences often represents a bottleneck for such investigations. In this dataset, we present the results of a comprehensive genomic epidemiology analysis of 17,546 genomes of a dangerous bacterial pathogen Acinetobacter baumannii. Important typing information including multilocus sequence typing (MLST)-based sequence types (STs), intrinsic blaOXA-51-like gene variants, capsular (KL) and oligosaccharide (OCL) types, CRISPR-Cas systems, and cgMLST profiles are presented, as well as the assignment of particular isolates to nine known international clones of high risk. The presence of antimicrobial resistance genes within the genomes is also reported. These data will be useful for researchers in the field of A. baumannii genomic epidemiology, resistance analysis and prevention measure development.

The increasing rate of adoption of innovative technological achievements along with the penetration of the Next Generation Internet (NGI) technologies and Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the water sector, are leading to a shift to a Water-Smart Society. New challenges have emerged in terms of data interoperability, sharing, and trustworthiness due to the rapidly increasing volume of heterogeneous data generated by multiple technologies. Hence, there is a need for efficient harmonisation and smart modeling of the data to foster advanced AI analytical processes which will lead to efficient water data management. The main objective of this work is to propose two Smart Data Models focusing on the modeling of the Satellite Imaginary data and the Flood Risk Assessment processes. The utilisation of those models reinforces the fusion and homogenisation of diverse information and data facilitating the adoption of AI technologies for flood mapping and monitoring. Furthermore, a holistic framework has been developed and evaluated via qualitative and quantitative performance indicators revealing the efficacy of the proposed models concerning the usage of the models in real cases. The framework is based on the well-known and compatible technologies on NGSI-LD standards which are customised and applicable easily to support the water data management processes effectively.