The Internet-of-Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state-of-the-art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

Through processing and organizing the basic data and related literature on brownfield governance of Chinese local governments in recent years, the study constructed a risk evaluation index system for brownfield governance of Chinese local governments based on hierarchical analysis, taking into account the purpose of realizing the sustainable use of soil. Specific indicators were established under the two overall objectives of environmental protection and human health, including the degree of soil pollution, the degree of groundwater pollution, the degree of air pollution, the emission of toxic and hazardous substances, the type of land use, the intensity of land use, the maturity of governance technology, the scope of application of governance technology, the degree of perfection of policies and regulations, the strength of implementation of policies and regulations, the benefits of brownfield reuse, and the satisfaction of the public. In addition, the study takes Qitaihe City, which has already achieved the effect of brownfield management, as an example to further analyze the index system.

Enterprise risk management (ERM) was introduced in the 1990s and has become an expectation by boards of directors and regulators as a sign of good management and good corporate governance. However, many organizations struggle to implement ERM, and still seek practical ad-vice on ERM implementation. This article explains many of the reasons why organizations are unsuccessful in their efforts at implementation and provides practical solutions by an experienced risk manager and consultant, an ex-Chief Risk Officer, and an academic, all who has writ-ten extensively in the subject. This article should be of interest to practitioners involved in implementing ERM, to consultants in ERM, and to academics teaching courses on ERM, risk management, and related topics. This article also provides a base against which further future re-search can be done as ERM best practices continue to evolve.

The stress testing methodology should be implemented and applied to the entity's overall financial system at least annually, and if the organization operates in a volatile economy, it should be performed at least twice a year. Finally, managers should include regular training and development sessions for relevant employees of their organization to be fully informed and more informed and informed, considering the evolving science, theory and practicality of a discrete range of stress testing mechanisms that can be appropriately applied to overall financial framework and system of multiple financial institutions and banks. In addition, stress testing is essentially a methodology that collects and analyzes certain future macro-prudential and micro-prudential economic drivers and indicators, the primary purpose of which is to assess the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a financial institution, bank, organization, credit institution or economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. with the primary intention of assessing the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a group of financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically targeted and incorporated into a paper that substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance of the feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. with the primary intention of assessing the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a group of financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. the level of growth and status quo of the financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. the level of growth and status quo of the financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries.

This study investigated the effects of whole-body circuit training using a weighted vest on plasma resistin, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and cardiorespiratory fitness for normal-weight obese women. In this study, thirty- six normal-weight obese women were divided into three groups: Weighted Vest Circuit Training (WVCT) (n = 12), Body Weight Circuit Training (BWCT) (n = 12), and Control (CON) (n = 12). Whole-body circuit training was conducted three times a week for eight weeks to compare and analyze plasma resistin, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and cardiorespiratory fitness before and after training. Although there was no significant baseline difference between the groups regarding skeletal muscle mass, it significantly increased for the WVCT group after eight weeks. percent body fat significantly decreased for the WVCT and BWCT groups, and there was a significant difference when the percent body fat of these two groups were compared to that of the control group. Moreover, the WVCT and BWCT groups displayed a significant decrease in plasma resistin, showing a significant difference from the CON group. The WVCT and BWCT group showed a significant decrease in plasma IL-6, whereas the CON group showed a significant increase. VO2max significantly increased post-training compared to before in the BWCT group and the WVCT group, and the WVCT group showed differences between groups compared to the BWCT group and the CON group. None of the three groups displayed significant changes in plasma hs-CRP, yet there was a significant difference between the hs-CRPs of the WVCT and BWCT group and that of the CON group. In conclusion, whole-body circuit training using a weighted vest efficiently improves body composition, plasma resistin, and cardiopulmonary fitness, reducing cardiovascular disease risk factors in normal-weight obese women.

The interrelatedness of social-structural aspects and psychological features with the vaccination intention provides the context to explore personal psychological fea-tures related to general decision-making and vaccine-related dispositions, and their contribution to the intention to vaccinate, within post-pandemic circumstances, after the imposed possibility of choosing a vaccine brand. The aim of our study was to map the function (promotive, protective, risk, vulnerability) of a set of psychological aspects in the intention to vaccinate, in people with different social roles regarding the vaccination. We surveyed three samples of people: healthcare providers (HPs), parents, and lay people, within the context of the after-pandemic. Negative vaccine attitudes lower intention to vaccinate in all regression models (all βs ranging from -.128 to -.983, all ps < .01). The main results indicate that, regardless of the sam-ple/social role, there is a shared attitudinal core for positive vaccination intention. This core consists of [high] trust in large corporations, government, and healthcare systems, as well as perceived consensus on vaccine safety/efficacy and experience of freedom (protective factors), and [low] vaccination conspiracy beliefs, trust in social media, and choice overload (risk and vulnerability factors, respectively). There are no common promotive factors of intention to vaccinate; for parents, perceived consensus on vaccines, and trust in corporations and the healthcare system play such roles, for HPs experience of freedom is obtained as a unique promotive factor. In contrast, for laypeople, no unique promotive factors were found. These results and guidelines for the promotion of positive vaccination behavior are further discussed.

Keyhole neurosurgery implies reaching a target area inside the brain through an entry point specified by the neurosurgeon. In order to avoid complications, a risk assessment procedure must be done to establish the minimum risk trajectory from the entry point to the target area. The neurosurgeon establishes the risk values for the brain structure according to the type of intervention. The preset brain structure risk value is used to assess the risk value for each voxel of the brain. This paper proposes an improved risk assessment methodology based on the sum of N maximum risk values for each voxel. Then, risk assessment for a trajectory is done by adding the risk of all voxels that are part of the path. The safest trajectory is defined as the trajectory with the lower risk. Our proposed search trajectory methodology includes a Genetic Algorithm (GA) for finding the safest trajectories. The use of a GA drastically reduces the number of trajectories to analyze, speeding up the planning procedure. The achieved results were qualified by expert neurosurgeons as satisfactory. Our proposed method allows neurosurgeons to calibrate the surgical planning system by allowing them to establish the risk brain structure and the risk value for each structure.

Unrecorded alcohol comprises all types of alcohol that is not registered in the jurisdiction where it is consumed. In some countries in Central and Eastern parts of Europe as well as the Balkan, the major amount of unrecorded alcohol consumption may derive from homeproduction of fruit spirits. Some studies found a high prevalence of lead and cadmium in such spirits. This article provides a quantitative comparative risk assessment using the margin of exposure (MOE) methodology for lead and cadmium, compared to ethanol, for unrecorded fruit spirits. For average concentration levels, the lowest MOE (0.8) was calculated for ethanol (alcohol itself). For lead, the MOE was 13 for moderate daily drinking and 0.9 for the worst case. For cadmium, the MOE was 1982 for moderate daily drinking and 113 for the worst case. The results of this study are consistent with previous comparative risk assessments that ethanol itself comprises by far the highest risk of all compounds in alcoholic beverages. Regarding the metal contaminants, the risk of cadmium appears negligible, however, lead may pose an additional health risk in heavy drinking circumstances. Strategies to avoid metal contamination in settings of artisanal homeproduction of spirits need to be developed.

Lower respiratory infections (LRI), upper respiratory infections (URI), and nutritional deficiency (ND) in under-5 children from low-middle-income countries has been at a high level for decades, despite efforts that have been realized in some countries. The study used data extracted from the global burden of diseases (GBD) to analyze the trends behavior between 1990 and 2019, and evaluate their association with maternal factors. Between 1990 and 2019, the incidence of LRI decreased between 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent (1.2-1.3%) in different female age groups, and by nearly 1 to 1.3% in those of the male gender. The incidence of URI did not decrease (0.0%) in any of their age groups. ND incidence declined around 0.7 to 4.9% in the under-5 children. LRI declined mostly in the female age groups (1.2 to 1.3%), while ND decreased more in the male gender (0.9 to 4.9%). Maternal risk factors were strongly associated to the incidence of the three conditions with over 90 percent. Maternal prevalence of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis positively impacted the incidence of LRI, URI, and ND in Chadian under-5 children. Although the incidence of LRI and ND declined, URI incidence remained steady between 1990 and 2019 in Chadian under-5 children. To improve the health and provide a healthy growth of under-5 children, the maternal prevalence of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis infection should be strongly addressed for a prompt accomplishment of the sustainable development goals.

The Internet-of-Things (IoT) enables enterprises to obtain profits from data but triggers data protection questions and new types of cyber risk. Cyber risk regulations for the IoT however do not exist. The IoT risk is not included in the cyber security assessment standards, hence, often not visible to cyber security experts. This is concerning, because companies integrating IoT devices and services need to perform a self-assessment of its IoT cyber security posture. The outcome of such self-assessment needs to define a current and target state, prior to creating a transformation roadmap outlining tasks to achieve the stated target state. In this article, a comparative empirical analysis is performed of multiple cyber risk assessment approaches, to define a high-level potential target state for company integrating IoT devices and/or services. Defining a high-level potential target state represent is followed by a high-level transformation roadmap, describing how company can achieve their target state, based on their current state. The transformation roadmap is used to adapt IoT risk impact assessment with a Goal-Oriented Approach and the Internet of Things Micro Mart model.

Worldwide, there is a significant increase in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by emergency services. They offer a lot of possibilities during the rescue operation. Such a wide application for various purposes and environments causes many threats related to their use. To minimize the risks associated with conducting air operations with UAVs, the SORA methodology will be important. Due to its level of detail, it is a methodology adapted to civilian use. In this article, the authors' team will try to develop guidelines and directions for adapting SORA to the requirements of the operational work of emergency services. Thus following article aims to present the most important risks related to conducting operations with the use of UAVs by First Responders (FRs) and to show the sample risk analysis performed for this type of operation on the example of the ASSISTANCE project. The paper describes, on the one hand, possibilities offered by UAVs in crisis or disaster management and step-by-step Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) and on the other hand, presents possible threats, consequences and methods of their mitigation during FRs missions.

This paper introduces the exponential time differencing (ETD) technique as a numerical method to solve efficiently American vulnerable options pricing. We address several challenges, including removing cross-derivative terms through appropriate transformations, treating early-exercise opportunities using the penalty method, and substituting fixed boundary conditions with corresponding one-sided finite differences. The proposed method is shown to be both accurate and efficient through numerical experiments, which also compare the results with existing methods and analyse the numerical stability and convergence rate.

Background: Hurricanes and other wind events are significant disturbances that affect coastal urban forests around the world. Past research has led to the creation of wind resistance ratings for different tree species which can be used in urban forest management efforts to mitigate the effects of these storms. While useful, these ratings have been limited to species common to one global region (Florida, USA).Methods: Drawing on past ratings and data from a global literature review on tropical storm research, we created a machine learning model to broaden both the geographic coverage and the variety of species currently assessed for their resistance to wind.Results: We were able to assign wind resistance ratings to 281 new species based on the available data and our modelling efforts. The model accuracy and agreement with the original ratings when applied to the testing data set was high with 91% accuracy.Conclusions: The resulting list of wind resistance ratings has been adapted into a spreadsheet-based decision aid for managers, allowing them to assess the overall susceptibility of their urban forest to wind events like hurricanes.

The global trend towards increased demand for organic food, greener environments, and the integration of biological control agents into pest management strategies has greatly enhanced the need for biological pesticides (biopesticides). Biopesticides are generally environmentally friendly and are made from micro-organisms or other natural substances. Despite their great potential, relatively few have been registered and commercialised in Nigeria compared to other African countries such as South Africa and Kenya. Biological active agents are so diverse such that ap-plying the same safety standards or environmental conditions to all of them is almost impossible. A review of risk assessment processes and comparative assessments of Nigeria's biopesticide regulations with other developing African countries and developed regions was conducted. Prolonged field testing, lack of bridged risk assessments and technical checklists have been identified as key factors hampering the timely development and commercialisation of biopesti-cides in Nigeria. Recommendations on necessary changes to the existing Nigeria biopesticide regulations have been made. Risk assessment matrices for microbial and biochemical biopesti-cides and a scientific/technical checklist have also been developed. Harmonisation and data ex-change among other countries in the region will also enhance the advancement of scientific and technical knowledge for sustainable regulation and cross-border trade.

Identifying and assessing risk is one of the most important processes in managing complex systems and requires careful consideration. The need for an effective, efficient approach to risk management is considerably more important for defense industries, because they are exposed to risk already in early stages of development. This paper uses Heterogeneity and Homogeneity analysis between risk factors with Cochran’s Q test and Multidimensional scaling in order to present the complexity of the risk factors relevant to defense SoS, and proposes a methodology for identifying, analyzing and monitoring the risks that they face. Findings from an in-depth analysis of 46 classified defense SoS shows a need to focus on three main risks faced by defense projects: insufficient human resources, changes in the original specifications, and lack of other (non-human) resources. The paper also presents some recommendations for minimizing risk factors in defense SoS.

Identifying and assessing risk is one of the most important processes in managing complex systems and requires careful consideration. The need for an effective, efficient approach to risk management is considerably more important for defense projects based on systems of systems (SoS), because they are exposed to risk already in early stages of development. This paper uses advanced data science tools to present the complexity of the risk factors relevant to defense systems, and proposes a methodology for identifying, analyzing and monitoring the risks that they face. Findings from an in-depth analysis of 46 classified defense projects based on SoS shows a need to focus on three main risks faced by defense projects: uncertainty, the lack of clearly defined goals, and managing a system under constrained conditions. The paper also presents some recommendations for minimizing risk factors in SoS for defense projects.

Data relating to the rate at which pesticide active substances dissipate on or within various plant matrices are important for a range of different risk assessments; however, despite the importance of this data, dissipation rates are not included in the most common online data resources. Databases have been collated in the past, but these tend not to be maintained or regularly updated. The purpose of the exercise described herein was to collate a new database in a format compatible with the main online pesticide database resource (the Pesticide Properties Database, PPDB), to validate this database in line with the Pesticide Properties Database protocols and thus ensure that the data is maintained and updated in future. Data was collated using a systematic review approach using several scientific databases. Collated literature was subjected to a quality assessment, and then data was extracted into an MS Excel spreadsheet. The outcome of the study is a database based on data collated from 1390 published articles covering over 400 pesticides and over 200 crops across a wide variety of different matrices (leaves, fruits, seeds etc.) for pesticide residues on the crop surface, as well as residues absorbed within the plant material. This data is now fully incorporated into the PPDB.

We analyze the upside and downside risk connectedness among international stock markets. We characterize the connectedness among international stock returns using the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover index approach and compute the upside and downside value-at-risk. We document that the connectedness level of the downside risk is higher than that of the upside risk and that stock markets are more sensitive when the stock market declines. We also find that specific periods (e.g., the global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and the COVID-19 turmoil) intensify the spillover effects across international stock markets. Our results demonstrate that the EU, Ger-many, and the US acted as net transmitters of dynamic connectedness; however, Japan (JP), China (CH), and India (IN) acted as net receivers of dynamic connectedness during the sample period. These findings provide significant new information to policymakers and market participants.

Atmospheric pollution arising from diesel-powered engines can result in acute and chronic diseases of the respiratory and cardiovascular systems. The annual carnival festival that takes place in the city of Salvador, Bahia-Brazil, is a large-scale event that gathers approximately 2 m revelers and 170,000 workers who accompany dozens of sound-trucks, or trios elétricos, for a period of seven days. These slow-moving sound-trucks run on diesel fuel, constantly exposing those around them to exhaust fumes. The present study aimed to evaluate air quality along the approximately 10km-long carnival parade circuit and determine possible impacts on human health. We applied a three-phase risk analysis strategy from 2007–2009: 1) hazard identification, 2) risk characterization and 3) risk management. Our quantification of atmospheric particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations revealed variable levels of PM2.5 ranging from 19 µg/m³ to 580 µg/m³, with peaks of up to 800 μg/m³ at sound-truck concentration areas. We then assessed the effects of air pollution on human health using ophthalmologic parameters obtained from 28 carnival volunteers, who often presented symptoms of eye irritation. Finally, we established strategies to communicate the study’s objectives and obtained results to the population through media outlets and open discussions with government agencies. According to our risk analysis, carnival sound-trucks represent the main source of atmospheric PM2.5 and NO₂ pollution during the annual 7-day carnival festival. As a consequence of our research, the municipal government of Salvador issued an addendum to its carnival legislation mandating organizers to monitor atmospheric pollution, and, subsequently, all large-scale public events. Municipal government authorities have also promoted a shift from petroleum-based diesel fuel to biodiesel, a less-polluting fuel, for all adapted carnival sound-trucks. Our approach, which employed easily accessible and inexpensive methodology, provided substantial scientific evidence to support improvements in the regulation of air quality during large-scale public events held in the city of Salvador.Keywords: environmental

Stocks portfolio is a form of investment that can be used to minimize the risk of loss. In a stock portfolio, the value at risk (VaR) can be predicted through the portfolio return. If portfolio return variance is heteroscedastic risk prediction can be done by using VaR with ARIMA-GARCH or Ensemble ARIMA-GARCH model approach. Furthermore, the accuracy of VaR is tested through backtesting test. In this study, the portfolio formed from Astra Agro Lestari Ltd (AALI) and Indofood Ltd (INDF) stocks from 10/02/2012 to 10/01/2019. The results showed that the best model is ARIMA(0,0,[3])-GARCH(1,2) with AIC of -5.604 and MSE 1.874e-07.At confidence level of 95% and 1 day holding period, the VaR of the ARIMA(0,0,[3])-GARCH(1,2) was -0.3464. Based on the backtesting test, it is proven to be very accurate to predict the value of loss risk because the value of the violation ratio (VR) is equal to 0.

This review of current research into at-risk programs serves to categorise and characterise existing programs and to evaluate the contribution of these programs to assisting students at-risk from marginalised backgrounds. This characterisation questions the (sometimes) implicit assumptions and the consequences of those assumptions inherent in and behind these various accounts. This involves a synthesis and reformulation, based on epistemological standpoints, both explicit and implied, of the various researchers. Using as a lens the (various and varied) understandings of social justice and the goals of education (Gale & Densmore, 2000; 2003) I identify three sometimes overlapping and sometimes contesting standpoints in relation to at-risk students, characterised as instrumentalist or rational technical, social constructivist or individualist and critical transformative or empowering. I argue that programs ‘which simply seek to achieve change in the individual young people are doomed to failure’ (Stewart, 1998, 4) and that a critical transformative understanding of at-risk may deliver improved outcomes for young people by challenging ‘the school context in which the young people are located’ (Stewart, 1998, 4).

The research explores the impact of financial indicators on the credit ratings of companies listed on the S&amp;P 500, employing a Sys-GMM Model to address endogeneity concerns. The study investigated three independent variables categorized as market and survival factors alongside with seven control variables sourced from leverage, liquidity, interest coverage, profitability, market, survival, and macroeconomic domains. The sample comprised 2398 observations from Capital IQ Pro, spanning nine years (2013 to 2021) and encompassing 240 public companies. The findings suggest that neither Tobin's Q (TQ) and Total Shareholder Return (TSR) lack significant correlations with credit ratings, implying that stock market performance and total shareholder return do not directly impact credit ratings. In contrast, the Altman Z-score (AZS) emerged as a significant predictor, indicating its importance in assessing credit risk. These insights enhance understanding of financial indicators' impact on credit ratings, aiding financial institutions and companies in prudent lending and financing decisions.

The Arctic is a remote region that has become increasingly globalised yet remains extremely vulnerable to many risks. The COVID-19 pandemic presented new challenges to the region. Using the Search, Appraisal, Synthesis and Analysis (SALSA) approach to conduct a meta-synthesis of the academic and grey literature on the impacts of the pandemic, an assessment is conducted of the types of risks that have been presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, the scales, and the national response strategies for mitigating the risks. Two case studies are explored, Iceland and Greenland, island nations that exemplify the extremes of the Arctic and reliance on tourism, a sector that was nearly entirely suspended by the pandemic. An evaluative matrix is employed which combines five different scales of risk – nano, micro, meso, macro and cosmic – with a sustainability categorisation of impacts. The risks of the pandemic cut across the respective scale and categories, with the potential for macro-scale events (systemic risk) to unfold linked to economic spillover effects driven by the curtailment of tourism and various supply chain delays. Both Iceland and Greenland have exemplified risk mitigation strategies which prioritise health over wealth, very strictly in the case of the latter. Strict border controls and domestic restrictions have enabled Iceland and Greenland to have much lower case and death numbers than most nations. In addition, Iceland has led the way, globally, in terms of testing and accumulating scientific knowledge concerning the genetic sequencing of the virus. The academic contribution of the paper concerns its broadening of understanding concerning systemic risk, which extends beyond financial implications to includes sustainability dimensions. For policymakers and practitioners, the paper highlights successful risk mitigation and science-based measures that will be useful for any nation tackling a future pandemic, regardless of whether they are island states, Arctic nations or another country.

Jakarta belongs to the cities with the highest flood risk in the world. Its flood hazard is driven by land subsidence, soil sealing, changes in river discharge and increasingly sea level rise. As all of these trends are set to continue, Jakarta’s flood hazard is expected to intensify in the future. Designing and implementing risk reduction and adaption measures is therefore of utmost importance. Against the background, the paper draws on a discourse analysis and original empirical household survey data to review and evaluate current adaptation measures and to analyze in how far they describe a path that is transformative from previous risk reduction approaches. The results show that the focus is clearly on engineering solutions, foremost in the Giant Sea Wall project. The project is likely to transform the city’s flood hydrology. However, it cements rather than transforms the current risk management paradigm which gravitates around the goal of controlling flood symptoms, rather than addressing their anthropogenic root causes. The results also show that the planned measures are heavily contested due to concerns about ecological impacts, social costs, distributional justice, public participation and long-term effectiveness. On the outlook, the results therefore suggest that the more the flood hazard will intensify in the future, the deeper a societal debate will be needed about the desired pathway in flood risk reduction and overall development planning – particularly with regards to the accepted level of transformation, such as partial retreat from the most flood-affected areas.

The perception in pair trading is to recognize two stocks that move together, and their prices will converge to a mean value in future. However, finding the mean-reverted point at which the value of the pair will converge, and optimal boundaries of the trade is not easy. As uncertainty and model misspecifications may lead to losses. To cater for the problems, this study employs the novel entropic approach that utilizes entropy as penalty function for the misspecification of the model. The use of entropy as a measure of risk in pair trading is a nascent idea and this study utilizes daily data for 64 companies listed on PSX for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively to compute the returns based on the entropic approach. These companies cover the major sectors including Cement, Chemical, Automobile Assembler, Food and Personal Care Products, Oil and Gas Marketing Companies, Oil and Gas Exploration Companies Ltd, Power Generation and Distribution, Refinery and Pharmaceuticals. The returns to these stocks are then evaluated and compared with the Buy and Hold strategy. The results show positive and significant returns from pair trading using an entropic approach.

Background: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) score was developed to identify stroke-related patent foramen ovale (PFO) in patients with cryptogenic stroke. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the 2016 to 2020 National Inpatient Sample to determine the performance of modified RoPE score for PFO presence in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Results: A total of 3,338,805 hospital admissions for AIS were analysed and 3.0% had PFO. Patients with PFO were younger compared to those without PFO (median 63 years vs. 71 years, p&lt;0.001) and fewer were female (46.1% vs. 49.7%, p&lt;0.001). The patients with PFO had greater mean modified RoPE score (4.0 vs. 3.3, p&lt;0.001). The area under the curve for the RoPE score in predicting PFO was 0.625 (95%CI 0.620-0.629). The best diagnostic power of the RoPE score was achieved with a cut point of ≥4 where the sensitivity was 55% and the specificity was 64.2%. A cut point of ≥5 increased specificity (83.1%) at the expense of sensitivity (35.8%). The strongest predictor of PFO was deep vein thrombosis (OR 3.97, 95%CI 3.76-4.20). Conclusions: The modified RoPE score had modest predictive value in identifying patients with PFO among patients admitted with AIS.

The paper presents the results of the theoretical and practical research on developing the infrastructure for assessment of overall risk (explosion / occupational / terrorist attack) associated with unwanted events such as major accidents that can occur at explosive storehouses for civilian use. The scientific research outlined in this article was carried out within the Nucleu Project PN 16 43 02 15 - “Research on increasing safety levels at technical facilities for storage of explosives for civil use”.

To proactively manage information security, enterprises often employ information security risk assessment techniques. Asset value - which is used to calculate the financial impact of possible threats - is one of the key parameters of information security risk. However, assets in a system are rarely independent, and their values are typically interdependent. Asset owners and IT teams may hold different views as regards these values, and there is thus the need to reduce subjectivity in a qualitative risk assessment. The research entails the development of a conceptual framework derived from the literature to minimize subjectivity, and the design of a system based on those concepts. The study uses the Unified Modeling Language as a design tool and puts forward an object-oriented model for defining asset values, in which the relationships between assets, vulnerabilities and related threats are identified. A “segregation of duties” approach is integrated into the risk management system to mitigate against subjectivity and better determine asset values. Survey responses from 16 practitioners working in the private and public sectors confirm the validity of the approach, but suggest it may be more workable in larger organisations where resources allow dedicated risk professionals to operate.

The Impact Chain framework for risk assessment has proven to be a robust and effective It is very useful to set up the conceptual framework associated to a given risk and allows accommodating naturally the different components that shape that However, the operationalization of the impact chain may not be straightforward, in particular due to the inherent uncertainties associated to the selected indicators and the assigned In this paper, we introduce an extension to the Impact Chain framework that allows to consider uncertainties in the different components of the risk In the framework of the UNCHAIN project, a web-based tool has been developed to ease the task of implementing that The tool has been applied to a case study on the loss of tourist attractiveness due to heat stress conditions on the Balearic island, Spain, to illustrate how uncertainties in different components of the impact chain can affect the robustness of the final risk Also, the tool provides an estimate of the sensitivity of the final risk to each component, which can be used to guide risk mitigation Finally, a proposal for the validation of the risk assessment is presented.

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of information technology in management of risks in the capital market-listed company is in Tehran Stock Exchange. The purpose of the present study is an applied descriptive approach. The target population for the survey, companies that from 2009 to the first half of 2015 have been a member of the Tehran Stock Exchange, through Cochranʼs sample size of 140 companies, respectively. We used cluster sampling method. In order to collect data from two questionnaires: risk management questionnaire Foakeh (2013) has 38 items and a standard questionnaire Chanvyas (2006) has 40 items, the whole five-item Likert scale questionnaire is above has been used. Data gathered through the questionnaire, sign the application was 21spss. For inferential analysis of the variables and to analyze the data from different statistical tests and regression was used Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results showed that information technology on risk management and its dimensions (primary market risk, market risk and the risk of secondary non-financial) impact.

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) accounts for approximately 90-95% of all kidney cancers in adults, with the clear cell RCC (ccRCC) the most frequently identified subtype. RCC is known for its responsiveness to immunotherapy, making it an area of significant research interest. Immune checkpoint (IC) molecules, which regulate immune surveillance, are established therapeutic targets in RCC. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of polymorphisms in genes HVEM and CD160 on susceptibility to ccRCC and patient overall survival (OS) with over a ten-year period of observation. We genotyped three HVEM single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs): rs1886730, rs2234167, and rs8725, and two CD160 SNPs: rs744877 and rs2231375, in 238 ccRCC patients and 521 controls. Our findings indicated that heterozygosity within rs2231375 and/or rs2234167 increases ccRCC risk. Furthermore, in women, heterozygosity within additional HVEM SNPs, rs8725 and rs1886730, is associated with an increased ccRCC risk. The presence of a minor allele for rs1886730, rs2234167, rs8725, and rs2231375 was also correlated with certain clinical features of the disease. Moreover, the rs1886730 SNP was found to be associated with patients' OS. In conclusion, our study highlights an association between HVEM and CD160 polymorphisms and the risk of developing ccRCC as well as patient’s OS.

In recent years, a large-scale afforestation campaign has taken place in Inner Mongolia, China, to control desertification and soil erosion. However, the water consumption associated with large-scale afforestation significantly impacts the water resources in Inner Mongolia, resulting in a substantial ecological risk. This study aimed to evaluate the ecological risk of water resources caused by afforestation in the region. In this study, based on land cover data, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, and meteorological data, used trend analysis, water balance equation, and Water resources Security Index (WSI) index to analyze the ecological risks of water resources caused by afforestation in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2020. The results show that:(1) The afforestation area in Inner Mongolia was 5.37×104 km2 in 2000-2020; (2) Afforestation in arid and semi-arid areas leads to the reduction of water resources. (3) Afforestation reduces water resources in the study area by 0.76×108m3/year; (4) ~76% of afforestation regions face ecological risks of water resources.

Taxes on the consumption of certain products have played a key role in public revenue analysis in European countries. This work aims to assess the differences in tax planning on new non-combustion products across some European territories. Through theoretical analysis, the paper has three distinct aspects. Firstly, we show the taxpayer profile in different countries. Secondly, the study analyzes the risks for the health system and the individual. Thirdly, the design of the land tax is based on previous experience and planning in Europe. This paper concludes with a case study for different countries: 1) Spain “vapers” and “smokers”, where the analysis is based on micro-data from the European Health Interview Survey 2020. 2) Sweden with the analysis of snus, shows it as a practice to reach economic savings while decreasing economic costs thanks to the nudging of consumers towards better products. The results show taxation and, specially, land taxation, should consider differences in planning in the case of new products, such as the non-combustion products, given the user per capita income and the potential lower health risks involved.

In this systematic review of the literature on using Machine Learning (ML) for credit risk prediction, we raise the need for financial institutions to use AI and ML to assess credit risk, analyzing large volumes of information. We posed research questions about algorithms, metrics, results, data sets, variables, and related limitations in predicting credit risk. We searched renowned databases to answer them and identified 52 relevant studies with the credit industry microfinance. Challenges and approaches in credit risk prediction using ML models we identified, difficulties with the implemented models such as the black box model, the need for explanatory artificial intelligence, the importance of selecting relevant features, addressing multicollinearity, and the problem of the imbalance in the input data. By answering the questions, we identified that the Boosted Category is the most researched family of ML models; the most commonly used metrics for evaluation are Area Under Curve (AUC), Accuracy (ACC), Recall, precision measure F1 (F1), and Precision; Research mainly uses public data sets to compare models, and private ones to generate new knowledge when applied to the real world. The most significant limitation identified is the representativeness of reality, and the variables primarily used in the microcredit industry are related data to the demographic, the operation, and payment behavior. This study aims to guide the developers of credit risk management tools and software towards the existing offer of ML methods, metrics, and techniques used to forecast it, thereby minimizing possible losses due to default and guiding risk appetite.

We present a hierarchical reinforcement learning (RL) architecture that employs various low-level agents to act in the trading environment, i.e. the market. The highest level agent selects among a group of specialised agents, and then the selected agent decides when to sell or buy a single asset for some period. This period can be variable according to a termination function. We hypothesized that due to different market regimes, more than one single agent is needed when trying to learn from such heterogeneous data, and instead, multiple agents will perform better, with each one specialising in a subset of the data. We use $k-means$ clustering to partition the data and train each agent with a different cluster. Partitioning the input data also helps model-based RL (MBRL), where models can be heterogeneous. We also add two simple decision-making models to the set of low-level agents, diversifying the pool of available agents and thus increasing overall behaviour flexibility. We perform multiple experiments showing the strengths of a hierarchical approach and test various prediction models at both levels. We also use a risk-based reward at the high level, which transforms the overall problem into a risk-return optimization. This type of reward shows a significant reduction in risk while minimally reducing profits. Overall, the hierarchical approach shows significant promise, especially when the pool of low-level agents is highly diverse.

Improving the efficiency of the supply process in prefabricated components is challenging and requires accounting for a variety of risks involved in the management of the suppliers. The purpose of this study is to present a method to account for the systematic trade-offs between several supplier alternatives. A novel framework is presented for the whole assessment of supplier alternatives by taking advantage of the information extracted from customized building information modeling (BIM) and a database required for assessment of impacts. A data library related to assessment criteria for supply alternatives is built to facilitate the storage and sharing of information. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to select the optimal supplier that is able to provide the most satisfaction for the determined criteria. The proposed framework was also illustrated by the implementation in a mega project. The study implication is that BIM-enabled supplier selection can indeed lead to more benefits and higher values for all stakeholders.

This study is follow-up of the steel shot transformation under the influence of environmental factors research (Lisin et al., 2022) and is the initial stage of investigating the iron behavior in soils during steel shot corrosion under a number of factors: the metallic lead in soils, atmospheric precipitation, excess organic matter. The results obtained show that corrosion of steel ammunition is a continuous process, including the formation of a poorly soluble rust crust on the surface of the steel and the mineralization of the metal until it is destroyed. As a result, the metal transformed into rust form, is a constant source of iron ions and dispersed rust particles migrating in soil waters and accumulating in soils. In addition, the aggregation of corrosion products of steel ammunition is the cause of a change in physical and mechanical properties of soils, which leads to a violation of the air and water migration regime of soils and an increase in surface runoff from the territories of shooting activity. The highest environmental risks are observed when steel ammunition is used on shooting areas where metallic lead intensifies steel shot corrosion rate, while the deposited steel shot activates the deterioration of previously encapsulated metal and — if steel and lead ammunition are used at the same time — slows down the encapsulation of newly deposited metallic lead, which catalyses the accumulation and migration of lead in environmental components.

Currently there is no multi-hazard risk assessment tool for determining the level of complexity to swiftwater and flood rescue incidents. Traditionally, the International Scale of River Difficulty is used but it is primarily for paddlers for use in a recreational context, without much consideration to the multitude of hazards faced in swiftwater and flood rescue environments. In response to this gap, the ECHO risk assessment tool has been developed and undergone initial testing. This tool provides for simple and rapid codification of multiple hazards and response considerations and is globally applicable. The tool also assigns a final risk assessment colour making the interpretation of the assessment easy to understand and communicate. Though the proposed tool shows potential, further research is needed before it should be operationalised.

Multi-stakeholder based construction projects are subject to various risk factors due to dynamic business environments. These risks affect project activities which indirectly impact construction costs, resulting in delays and poor building quality. So, managing these project risks requires suitable risk mitigation strategies to evaluate and analyse their severity. Hence, risk evaluation and assessment of construction projects is a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. In present real-life problems, evaluation of project risks is often uncertain and even incomplete, and the prevailing methodologies fail to handle such situations. To address the problem, this paper extends the analytical network process (ANP) methodology in the D number domain to handle three types of ambiguous evaluations, viz. complete, uncertain, and incomplete, and assesses the weight of risk criteria. The D number based approach overcomes the deficiencies of the exclusiveness hypothesis and completeness constraint of Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory. Here, preference ratings of the decision matrix for each decision-maker are determined using a D number extended consistent fuzzy preference relation (D-CFPR). An extended multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) method in D number is then developed to rank and select the best alternative risk response strategy. Finally, an illustrative example from construction sector is presented to check the feasibility of the proposed approach. For checking the reliability of alternative ranking, a comparative analysis is performed with different MCDM approaches (D-COPRAS, D-ARAS, D-MABAC, and D-TOPSIS). Based on different criteria weights, a sensitivity analysis of obtained ranking of the hybrid D-ANP-MABAC model is performed for verify the robustness of the proposed method.

Anxiety disorders, characterized by excessive fear and anxiety, are increasingly recognized as significant comorbidities in chronic diseases such as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of anxiety in COPD patients referred from primary care centers to pulmonology services and identify predictive factors for anxiety. Conducted as a multicentric, observational, and prospective study, 293 COPD patients were recruited, undergoing comprehensive respiratory and smoking histories, spirometry, and anxiety assessments using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). These results show: a diagnosis of suspected anxiety in in 85 patients (29.0%): 17 possible and 68 with a strong suspicion. The study found significant associations between anxiety and factors such as gender (women showed a risk 3.5 times higher than men), weight, and body mass index (BMI). Disease severity, smoking status, and clinical manifestations did not significantly influence anxiety prevalence. The findings underscore the need for systematic psychological evaluations in COPD management, advocating for the use of simple diagnostic tools like the HADS to facilitate referrals to mental health services. Addressing anxiety in COPD patients could potentially improve their quality of life and disease outcomes. The study highlights the importance of a multidisciplinary approach involving family medicine, pulmonology, and psychiatry to optimize COPD patient care and suggests future research should focus on the impact of anxiety treatment on COPD progression. These insights call for integrating psychological assessments into routine clinical practice for comprehensive COPD management.

We assessed the association between cirrhosis and severe COVID-19-related outcomes among people with laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 infection in British Columbia, Canada. We used data from the British Columbia (BC) COVID-19 Cohort, a population-based cohort that integrates data on all individuals tested for COVID-19 with data on hospitalizations, medical visits, emergency room visits, prescription drugs, chronic conditions, and deaths in the Canadian province of BC. We included all individuals, aged ≥ 18 who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, from January 01, 2021, to December 31, 2021. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between cirrhosis status and COVID-19-related hospitalization and ICU admission. Of the 162,509 individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were included in the analysis, 768 (0.5%) had cirrhosis. In the multivariable models, cirrhosis was associated with increased odds of hospitalization (aOR=1.97, 95% CI: 1.58 – 2.47) and ICU admission (aOR=3.33, 95% CI: 2.56 – 4.35). In the analyses stratified by age, we found that the increased odds of ICU admission among people with cirrhosis were present in all the assessed age-groups. Cirrhosis is associated with increased odds of hospitalization and ICU admission among COVID-19 patients.

Social sustainability is the major concern of planners and local officials when urban renewal projects are being conducted. Extreme individualism can potentially cause conflicts of interest, making urban renewal in Western cities fraught with various types of social risks. As a country with deep-rooted socialist tradition, urban renewal projects in China are influenced by collectivist culture and show different features from those of the West. The objective of this research is to investigate how different stakeholders in urban redevelopment projects, including local residents, social organizations, the local state, and developers, interact with each other and how the associated social risks are hedged against. Using a recent well-known project in the city of Guangzhou, the authors attempt to present the latest progress in social risk management in China. With the support from a government-sponsored project, the authors have conducted a questionnaire-based survey and year-long follow-up fieldwork. Using ATLAS.ti software, we found that that “residents’ demand”, “status of collaboration”, and “degree of trust” are the keys to risk management. The results of an ordered probit model show that residents are worried about the overall planning, the relocation timetable, and whether their personal needs are taken into account. It is also indicated that the timely disclosure of project information, high-quality public participation, and a reasonable compensation plan can possibly boost the support rate. The authors suggest that utilizing China’s collectivist culture could be an effective way to mitigate social risks, and residents’ personal interests should also be respected.

The assessment of seismic risk in urban areas with high seismicity is certainly one of the most important problems that territorial managers have to face. A reliable evaluation of this risk is the basis for the design of both specific seismic improvement interventions and emergency management plans. Unappropriate seismic risk assessments may provide misleading results and induce bad decisions with relevant economic and social impact.The seismic risk in urban areas is mainly linked to three factors, namely, “hazard”, “exposure” and “vulnerability”. Hazard measures the potential of an earthquake to produce harm; exposure evaluates the amount of population exposed to harm; vulnerability represents the proneness of considered buildings to suffer damages in case of an earthquake. Estimates of such factors may not always coincide with the perceived risk of the resident population. The propensity to implement structural seismic improvement interventions aimed at reducing the vulnerability of buildings depends significantly on the perceived risk.This paper investigates on the difference between objective and perceived risk and highlights some critical issues. The aim of this study is to calibrate opportune policies, which allow addressing the most appropriate seismic risk mitigation options with reference to current levels of perceived risk. We propose the introduction of a Seismic Policy Prevention index (SPPi). This methodology is applied to a case-study focused on a densely populated district of the city of Catania (Italy).

Since financial institutions faced to fatal scenario like subprime mortgage crisis and COVID-19, the factor-based asset allocation methodology is noticed. Asset-only approach which make to consider restrictive risk volatility as individual assets had limitation of macro factor risk. For instance, an institution which allocated assets by asset-only approach cannot deal with the inflation crisis. We review the problem of the traditional modern portfolio approach that is used by Korean financial institutions. For reasonable investment of institution, we notice improved factor-based allocation approach. The first result of this paper is that Mean-variance approach as considered only return of asset recorded lower performance than multi factor-based portfolio in macro factor crisis. Second, we notice allocation model which can minimize probability passing the liability risk exposed macro factors to investment risk exposed macro factors. There are three steps in multi-macro factor-based asset allocation approach: discovering macro factors and mapping asset classes to individual macro factor. Second, define liability account and mapping as considering income and pay out of institution. Third, minimize correlation of fac-tor-based asset risk with liability volatility. Furthermore, using covariance return of assets to allocate makes Pareto improvement and supports to break Home-bias problems.

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of disastrous events in the world, but several disparities in population vulnerability are being registered. One of the causes of these variances is different public risk perception also due to the degree of education and knowledge of the population. In this study, some of the results obtained in a risk perception survey are presented. The survey was carried out in an area of Calabria (Southern Italy) hit by geo-hydrological events that have occurred in recent years with damage to roads, tourism facilities and private houses. A statistical interpretation of the results highlights the importance of education and knowledge to risk perception on the part of the population investigated.

The hazard and the carcinogenic risks due to the exposure to some potentially toxic elements by the Santiago Island (Cape Verde) population where calculated, considering soil ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact as exposure pathways. The topsoil of Santiago Island is enriched in Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, V, Zn, Mn and Cd to upper crust values. Hazard indices (HI) were calculated for these metals and As exposures, of Santiago Island population and the calculations were performed for children and adults. For children HI are higher than 1 for Co, Cr and Mn. So there is indication of potential non-carcinogenic risk for children, due to the high Co (HI=2.995), Cr (HI=1.329) and Mn (HI=1.126), values in soils. For the other elements and for adults there is no potential non-carcinogenic risk. Cancer risk was calculated for As, Cd, Cr and Ni exposures, for adults and children and the results are always lower than the carcinogenic target risk of 1x10-6, for As, Cd, and Ni. However, cancer risk are higher than the carcinogenic target risk for Cr, for adults. Regarding As, for children the fraction due to Riskingestion represents 51.6%, while Riskinhalation represents 48.0% and Riskdermalcontact represents only 0.4% of total risk. For adults Riskinhalation represents 81.3%, Riskingestion represents 16.6% and Riskdermal contact represents 2.1%. These results reflect the higher daily ingestion dose for children and the higher inhalation rate and higher dermal contact surface for adults. For the other elements and for adults the cancer risk due to Cr, Ni and Cd inhalation is always higher than for children, reflecting the higher inhalation rate for adults.

Risk management of electric power transmission lines requires knowledge from different areas such as environment, land, investors, regulations, and engineering. Despite the widespread availability of databases for most of those areas, integrating them into a single database or model is a challenging problem. Instead, in this paper, we use a single source, the Brazilian National Electric Energy Agency’s (ANEEL) weekly reports, which contains decisions about the electrical grid, comprising most of the areas. Since the data is unstructured (text), we employed NLP techniques such as stemming and tokenization to identify keywords related to common causes of risks provided by an expert group on energy transmission. Then, we used models to estimate the probability of each risk. Our results show that we were able to estimate the probability of 97 risks out of 233.

We present an updated design process for adapting and integrating existing cyber risk assessment approaches for impact assessment for the risk from IoT to the digital economy. The new design process includes a set of changes to the original standards (e.g. NIST) that are adapted for the IoT cyber risk in this paper. This paper also presents a new framework for impact assessment of IoT cyber risk, specific for the digital economy.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are rising rapidly among the postmenopausal woman but they are less likely to identify their risk by an appropriate risk assessment tool. This review evaluates available literature on cardiovascular risk assessment among postmenopausal women to provide a concise view of risk factors and disease burden among them, present risk assessment systems including their drawbacks, emergence of new risk factors and their role in risk prediction, and finally use of hormone replacement therapy during menopause. Results demonstrate that menopause is a transition point for developing CVD not due to physiological changes only but psychosocial factors like depression and marital stress are also responsible. Both conventional and emerging risk factors burden are high among postmenopausal women. Though data regarding CVD risk assessment among postmenopausal population is lacking but existing evidences claimed underestimation or overestimation of risk among women. Moreover application of different tools on same population has revealed significant variation in result. In this regard, recalibration of conventional tools with local data and new risk factors has showed improvement of risk prediction. Hormone replacement therapy during early menopause has reported beneficial to prevent CVD but in secondary prevention it has no role. All of these findings demand further studies on cardiovascular risk assessment, especially in developing countries where women after menopause are not in consideration of health strategy makers.

Abstract: Falls are among the top 10 causes of years lived with disability in people aged 75 and over. Preventive programs like case management (CM) are crucial. Objectives: To evaluate the effects of a multifactorial fall prevention program, based on CM, on physical performance, presence of pain and risk of falls and fractures in elderly people who have suffered falls. Methods: This is a randomized, single-blind clinical trial with parallel groups: intervention group (IG) and control group (CG) composed of 55 older people with a history of falls living in the community. All participants underwent an initial assessment via video call (containing anamnesis, Timed Up and Go test, Falls Risk Score, Short Physical Performance Battery and Clinical Frax). The IG underwent CM, the physical exercise protocol and the cognitive stimulation protocol. The CG was monitored through telephone calls and received general health and falls guidance. Results: No significant results were found in physical capacity, presence of pain, risk of falls and fractures between the intervention and control groups and between assessments. Conclusion: This program was not effective in improving functional performance, but it was important for characterizing pain and the probability of fracture in the next 10 years in this population.

Combination treatment, i.e., the use of two or more drugs for the same condition, is frequent in medicine if monotherapy yields an insufficient therapeutic response. We here review and challenge clinical study designs and formats of reporting outcomes for the evaluation of the benefit/risk ratio of combination treatment over monotherapy. We demonstrate that benefits of combination treatment at the group level over-estimate the probability of benefit at the single patient level based on outcome simulations under almost any imaginable setting. Based on these findings we propose that studies testing combination treatment should always report on percentages of responders to monotherapy and combination treatment. We provide equations that allow calculation of the percentage of patients truly benefitting from combination (responders to both monotherapies) and that of patients exposed to risk of harm from adverse effects without a reasonable expectation of individual benefit. These considerations are explained based on real clinical data, mostly from the field of functional urology (male lower urinary tract symptoms).

Abstract – Objective: Ovarian cancer, although not possessing a high incidence, is still the most common cancer-related deaths among women diagnosed with a gynecologic malignancy. The present study aims to highlight the epidemiology, risk factors of this disease and the significance of development of improved early detection strategies. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted using current published English studies by searching PubMed and Google Scholar. The search strategy included the keywords “ovarian cancer”, “diagnosis”, “risk factors”, “screening”, “epidemiology”. Studies on incidence and mortality were also considered. Case reports were excluded.Results: The highest incidence and mortality rates are observed in Central and Eastern Europe, while rates are relatively low in Asia and Africa. These rates are highest among the white population (14.3 per 100,000) and lowest among blacks (10 per 100,000) and Asians (9.7 per 100,000). The risk factors for this disease includes a family history, hormonal factors, nutrition and diet and physical activity, with some of them playing protective roles in reducing risk of ovarian cancers. There are no reliable screening methods for ovarian cancers. The most common diagnosis methods include a transvaginal ultrasound and a blood test to detect CA125 markers.Conclusions: The mortality rate of ovarian cancer is gradually increasing; thus, preventative measures are required to reduce lifetime risk of ovarian cancers and improve mortality rate.

Nowadays tourism is growing as a gigantic, global business accounting for 10.4 % of Global GDP and 10% of global employment (Joppe, 2020). This review paper aims to explore the risks borne for tourism sector by the outbreak of corona-virus in 2020. Tourism sector is a highly vulnerable sector and the costs that will be borne from corona-virus pandemic will be devastating, particularly for the countries relying on this sector as a basic source of income. The paper suggests possible solutions and adaptation routes, while at the same time reviews lessons of the past from other pandemics and crisis. This paper is very useful for tourism policy makers and governments in countries where tourism contributes a significant part of their GDP, but also for other economic sectors closely but indirectly connected in the tourism value chain.

Lynch syndrome (LS) is an inherited cancer predisposition disorder associated with an elevated risk of various epithelial cancers. Despite sharing the same pathogenic variant (PV), Lynch syn-drome variant heterozygotes (LSVH) exhibit considerable phenotypic variability in cancer risk. The role of Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) in modifying cancer risk prompted our investiga-tion into whether HLA variations act as genetic modifiers influencing age at cancer diagnosis in a unique cohort of LSVH carrying a PV in the hMLH1 gene in South Africa. Within our extensive LS cohort, 426 individuals carried the same hMLH1 PV (MLH1:c.1528C>T). We selected 100 indi-viduals with the greatest diversity in age at cancer diagnosis and the oldest unaffected individu-als for high-throughput HLA genotyping of 12 HLA class I and II loci using next-generation se-quencing. Statistical analyses employed Kaplan-Meier survival analyses with Logrank tests and Cox proportional hazards. Following the robust application of statistical correction methods, six HLA alleles (3.2%) were significantly associated with a young age at cancer diagnosis. Notably, HLA-B*15:17 and HLA-DPB1*55:01 correlated significantly with very young colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis (Mean age: 21y [17-25]; HR = 71.59; q

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are prevalent and lead to high morbidity and mortality globally. Physiotherapists regularly interact with patients with or at risk of CVDs (pwCVDs). This study aimed to assess the nature of existing evidence, interventional approaches used, and the population groups included in physiotherapy-led health promotion (PLHP) for pwCVDs. The scoping review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines. Medline, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, and PEDro databases were searched from inception until June 2023. Two reviewers independently screened the titles, abstracts, full text and conducted data extraction. All conflicts were resolved with a third reviewer. A total of 4992 records were identified, of which 20 full-text articles were included in the review. The studies had varied populations, including those with stroke, coronary artery diseases, peripheral artery diseases, hypertension, diabetes, and multiple CVD risk factors. The interventions ranged from exercise and physical activity programs, dietary interventions, education, and counselling sessions with various supplementary approaches. Most interventions were short-term, with less than 12 months of follow-up. Interventions were personalised and patientcentred to promote adherence and health behaviour change. Among the included studies, 60% employed experimental designs, with the remainder using quasi-experimental designs. Although a wide range of PLHP strategies have been used for pwCVDs, exercise and physical activity were employed in 85% of included studies. Other components of health promotion, such as sleep, smoking, and alcohol abuse, should be investigated within PLHP.

Microplastics (of size < 5mm) pollution in our environment is of current concern by researchers, public media and non-governmental organizations. Implications by their presence in aquatic and soil ecosystems have been well studied and documented, but less attention has been paid on airborne microplastics (MPs). Studies concerning airborne microplastics started from 2016 and only a few (n=7) have been published till date. Although, studies may increase in the following years, since air is very important for human survival. Microplastics have been observed in atmospheric fallouts in indoor and outdoor environments using a sampling or vacuum pump, rain sampler and/or particulate fallout collector. Identification and quantification have been carried out by visual, spectroscopic and spectrometric techniques. Factors such as meterological, climatic and anthropogenic influence the distribution and movement of airborne MP. Human exposure may be through inhalation or dermal route with their potential biopersistence and translocation. Ingestion may cause localized inflammation and cancer due to responses by the immune cells, especially in individuals with compromised metabolism and poor clearance mechanisms. Ecological risks involve possible contamination of the ecosystem through a dynamic relationship of MPs in soil, water and air forming a MP contamination cycle. The present review aimed at providing a comprehensive overview of current knowledge or information regarding microplastics in air, identifies gap in knowledge and give suggestions for future research.

This study is aimed to explore the environmental risk posed by the unsustainable mining activities in Mulawarman village, East Kalimantan, and articulate the disproportionate impact from the perspective of environmental justice on how mining regulations affect the lives of a vulnerable community. A qualitative comparative analysis based on the legislation and administrative rules on coal mining, and a case study of Mulawarman village were adopted. The information was framed based (participatory) observation, and in-depth interview, and purposively conducted to six selected respondents. The result shows how the laws and regulations disadvantage the community and expose them to unequal treatment. The adverse effects of mining activities change the socio-environmental dynamics in this village. Being the breadbasket in 1997, Mulawarman villagers experience the loss of food self-sufficiency, and turn to the government and mining company for social welfare, and clean water. Also, inconsistent and incomplete regulations pertaining to mining, favor to serve the business interests before the environment and the local community. This results in severe encroachment upon community rights and leads to long-term conflicts between mining companies and local communities, and has weakened the capacity of local authorities to help the affected community to recover their rights.

Preeclampsia (PE) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in later life. Postpartum cardiovascular risk screening could identify patients who would benefit most from lifestyle interventions. However, there are no readily available methods to identify these high-risk women. We propose that placental lesions may be useful in this regard. Here, we sought to determine the association between placental lesions and lifetime CVD risk. Placentas from 85 PE women were evaluated for histopathological lesions. At 6 months postpartum, a lifetime cardiovascular risk score was calculated. Placental lesions were compared between CVD risk groups and the association was assessed using odds ratios. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop prediction models for CVD risk with placental pathology. Placentas from high-risk women had more severe lesions of maternal vascular malperfusion (MVM) and resulted in a 3-fold increased risk of screening high-risk for CVD (OR 3.10[1.20-7.92]) compared to women without these lesions. MVM lesion severity was moderately predictive of high-risk screening (AUC 0.63[0.51,0.75]; sensitivity 71.8%[54.6,84.4]; specificity 54.7%[41.5,67.3]. When clinical parameters were added, the model’s predictive performance improved (AUC 0.73[0.62,0.84]; sensitivity 78.4%[65.4,87.5]; specificity 51.6%[34.8,68.0]. The results suggest that placenta pathology may provide a unique modality to identify women for cardiovascular screening.

The present study was conducted to estimate the exposure and risk characterization of the children population of Serbia to Aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) from milk and milk-based food. A total of 3404 samples comprising of milk and different milk-based food samples were collected from various regions of Serbia from 2017 to 2019. Evaluation of the AFM1 exposure was carried out using the deterministic method, whereas risk characterization was evaluated with the calculation of the Margin of Exposure (MOE) and the risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). Detection rates for AFM1 in milk and milk-based food samples ranged between 2% and 79%, with the highest incidence (79%) and mean level (22.34  0,018 ng kg-1) of AFM1 was detected in pasteurized and UHT milk. According to the three consumption estimates, the values of EDI were higher for toddlers as compared with children. Children aged 1–3 years had the highest risk of exposure to AFM1 in milk, with an estimated daily intake of 0.164 and 0.193 ng kg-1 bw day-1 using a lower bound (LB) and the upper bound (UB) exposure scenarios, respectively. Such difference could result from the higher consumption versus weight. Based on the EDI found in this study, the risk of AFM1 due to consumption of milk and milk-based food was low since MOE values obtained were 10000. In addition, the risk of HCC cases/year/105 individuals of different age groups showed that the value of HCC using potency estimates of 0.0017 (mean) was maximum (0.00034) in the age group 1–3 years which indicates no health risk for the evaluated groups. The present study revealed the importance of controlling and preventing AFM1 contamination in milk through continuous monitoring and regular inspection to reduce the risk of AFM1 exposure, especially in children.

In last decades, growing migration flows have modified the obstetric clinical care, requiring specific attention by health care systems. The aim was to describe the phenomenon focusing on miscarriage (pregnancy loss at <20 weeks). Patients admitted for care at miscarriage in a six-year period (2012-17) were revised. Miscarriage rates in all ethnic groups, dichotomized in early (within the first 12 weeks of gestation) and late (at <20 weeks) pregnancy loss. Associations between women's characteristics (age, parity, inter-pregnancy interval (IPI)) were explored to elucidate any differences. A total of 1,940 patients were included, segregated in early (n = 1769, 91.2%) and late (n = 171, 8.8%) pregnancy losses. Caucasian ethnicity was the most common (87.9%), leaving the minority groups to 12.1%. Maternal age was higher among Caucasians women than other subgroups, in contrast to Asiatic patients. Nulliparity was observed in 1045 (53.9%) patient, more widespread among Caucasian and Maghrebins. A positive obstetric history counting at least one miscarriage was frequent, ranging from 22.2% to 75%, in particular among Asiatic women, while the recurrence in Caucasians. In Afro-Carribeans the most relevant rate of late miscarriage was found. By multiple regression modelling, maternal age, nulliparity and Afro-Carribean were identified as determinants. Maternal ethnicity should be considered in the management of pregnancy losses in combination with already well-defined risk factors, including age at miscarriare and nulliparity.

Strengthening the analysis and risk assessment of the pig epidemic will help to better prevent and mitigate epidemic risks and promote high-quality development of the pig industry. Based on the systematic grasp of the situation of live pig epidemics, a risk assessment index system was constructed, and the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the risk of pig epidemics in China were explored by the entropy method. In recent years, the overall trend in pig epidemics in time first increased and then decreased, and in space, the trend in the acceleration of the spread across the country continued to weaken. China still faces challenges, such as many types and a wide range of diseases, large total livestock breeding and weak epidemic prevention and control capacity, and a large risk of introduction of foreign animal epidemics. The spatial and temporal variation in the pig epidemic risk was obvious; there was one high-risk area, two higher-risk areas and 10 medium-risk areas in recent years, and the epidemic risk was highest in Beijing, Hainan, Liaoning, Tibet and Zhejiang. However, there were significant differences in the regional distribution of the risk of pig epidemics in different years. To further build a secure “defense system” for the high-quality development of the pig industry, it is recommended to improve the monitoring and early warning system of pig epidemic risk, perfect the pig epidemic prevention and control system, and strengthen the regional collaboration mechanism of epidemic prevention and control.

Abstract: Seismic performance and loss assessments can have widely varying degrees of uncertainty. An essential issue is whether a particular assessed seismic loss or performance result has sufficient reliability to serve as the basis for risk management decisions and actions, including whether or not a code prescribed performance level is met, or if an assessed loss level is acceptable. A method is developed measuring the reliability of performance and loss assessments for individual buildings and for portfolios. Consideration is given to how well the building investigation and corresponding evaluation process have been performed, the qualifications of the person(s) doing the assessment, the thoroughness of the evaluation, and the technical validity of the assessment procedure or model. The approach characterizes the uncertainty of each component of the assessment procedure for each building in qualitative terms. The resulting reliability measure is likely to be most useful for the cases where an entity is determining whether/or not a building has acceptable life safety performance, or if a portfolio has an acceptably low risk of seismic damage loss over a given period of time. In both cases, the reliability must either be sufficient to warrant action, or serve to indicate need for improved assessment.

This study aims to find a communication model of contingency plan for disaster risk management of Sinabung Volcano eruption, in North Sumatera. The object of the research is communication and coordination across the government, non-government organization, and community. This study used planning theory, the concept of communication planning, and types of disaster management plan as tools for analysing. Descriptive qualitative is used as the method. Data collection was obtained from the focus group discussion (FGD), in-depth interviews, observation, and study documentation. There are three stages in descriptive qualitative research that is data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion. An analysis was conducted qualitatively on the program and competence actors. The results found the communication model of disaster risk management through documents of contingency planning to overcome the threat of Mount Sinabung eruption. During the emergency response period a core model was used to reduce the impact of the Mount Sinabung eruption. The contingency plan becomes the Karo District Government’s document. This document were authorized by an authorized official and is ready to be applied to the Emergency Response Operation Plan. Plans for emergency response operations are carried out based on information regarding damage and the need to obtain results of a quick review. Contingency plans are submitted to the legislature for political commitment and support and budget allocation.

The objectives of this study were to evaluate fixed risk factors associated with PWM and to estimate genetic parameters for PWM. A total of 927 birth records from a mixed population of purebred and crossbred Boer and Spanish goats born between 2016 and 2023 at the International Goat Research Center (IGRC) were used for this study. Four binary traits were studied: D0-3 (death within 3 days after birth), D4-60 (death between 4 and 60 days), D61-90 (death between 61 and 90 days), and D0-90 (death within 90 days). Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the risk factors associated with PWM traits. Bayesian threshold models and Gibbs sampling were used to estimate the genetic parameters. Birth weight, season, litter size, sex, dam age, breed, and heterosis were found to be significantly associated with at least one of the PWM traits. Heritability estimates were 0.263, 0.124, 0.080, and 0.207, for D0-3, D4-60, D61-90, and D0-90, respectively. The genetic correlations between the studied traits ranged from 0.892 (D0-3 and D0-90) to 0.999 (D0-3 and D61-90). These results suggest that PWM in goats is influenced by both non-genetic and genetic factors and can be reduced by management, genetic selection, and crossbreeding approaches.

Some of the recent large-scale national projects in South Korea are delayed or suspended due to belated responses to risk occurring on site. Currently, the Far East District (FED) project is being implemented to relocate the US Army bases from Yongsan to Pyeongtaek. Because of lack of experience and understanding about the characteristics of such a project, the deadline of taking over to the US Army Korea has been missed. This study identifies problems of each participant in the Yongsan Relocation Plan (YRP) of the US Army Korea with respect to construction project management and establishes a risk management strategy reflecting characteristics of FED project. To derive significant risk factors influencing YRP, various field data like weekly and monthly reports and other reports on construction condition are analyzed, and experts’ advices are collected and a survey is conducted. Mediators and latent variables are ultimately obtained. Furthermore, a structural equation model is used to both analyze and evaluate complex causal relations among many variables of YRP. The impact of risk factors on the schedule, quality and cost of the project is analyzed. In particular, the case of Site A is examined to see how the project is affected by those risk factors.

For a long-only active equity manager (or investor), the ability to hedge the downside risk before a significant price correction is a valuable skill. The authors proposed constructing a signal that provides timing information for a manager to hedge the downside risk. This systematic signal can help a manager put on a hedge before the price corrections of the dot com bubble in 2000 and the global financial crisis in 2008. The signal is constructed for each GICS sector index in the S&P 500. When a sector’s PE indicates a high valuation and, at the same time, if the high valuation sector’s correlations with some other sectors are out of their historical norm, then these two conditions contribute a timing signal for the significant price swing of the index during the following six months. After observing the timing signal, managers can benefit significantly by hedging the downside risk. The signal can also be interpreted as the beginning of a high volatility regime for a sector.

Limited accessibility in some parts of Indonesia causes difficulties in logistic distribution, especially for emergency and medical supplies. Emerging drone cargo technology is a potential solution to improve logistic distribution in those areas. However, implementing drone cargo technology involves unknown risks, both in technical and non-technical aspects. Since data on drone operations in Indonesia is limited, a new method is explored to build a Bayesian Network (BN) model for risk analysis of drone crashes in Indonesia’s outermost and underdeveloped areas. The method optimizes the modelling process, in which significant risk factors are selected based on three drone operator companies’ experiences, which include wind speed, rain intensity, and system component failure or malfunction. Real wind speed and rain probability data are then implemented in the model. The operator’s data shows that wind speed contributes to drone crashes, which can be appropriately modelled in the BN model. The model produced a probability of safe operation of 94.1%, comparable to the annual operator’s data. The result shows that most operations are safe, with a minimum case of crashing and no case of harming human life.

Rising incidences of cutaneous melanoma have fueled the development of statistical models that predict the individual melanoma risk. Our aim was to assess the validity of published prediction models for incident cutaneous melanoma using a standardized procedure based on PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). We included studies that were identified by a recent systematic review and updated the literature search to ensure that our PROBAST rating included all relevant studies. Six reviewers assessed the risk of bias (ROB) for each study using the published “PROBAST Assessment Form” that consists of four domains and an overall rating of ROB. We further examined a temporal effect regarding changes in overall and domain-specific ROB rating distributions. Altogether 42 studies were assessed, of which a vast majority (n=34; 81%) was rated as having high ROB. Only one study was judged as having low ROB. The main reasons for high ROB ratings were the use of hospital controls in case-control studies and the omission of any validation of prediction models. However, our results of the temporal analysis showed a significant reduction in the number of studies with high ROB for the domain analysis. Nevertheless, the evidence base of high-quality studies that can be used to draw conclusions on the prediction of incident cutaneous melanoma is currently much weaker than the high number of studies on this topic would suggest.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is shaking the foundations of public health governance all over the world. Researchers are challenged by informing and supporting authorities on acquired knowledge and practical implications. This commentary applies established theories of risk perception research to COVID-19 and reflects on the role of risk perceptions in these unprecedented times. Moreover, it calls for utilizing the knowledge on risk perception to improve health risk communication, build trust and contribute to a collaborating governance.

Longevity risk constitutes an important risk factor for life insurance companies and it can be managed through longevity-linked securities. The market of longevity-linked securities is at present far from being complete and does not allow to find a unique pricing measure. We propose a method to estimate the maximum market price of longevity risk depending on the risk margin implicit within the calculation of the technical provisions as defined by Solvency II. The maximum price of longevity risk is determined for a survivor forward (S-forward), an agreement between two counterparties to exchange at maturity a fixed survival-dependent payment for a payment depending on the realized survival of a given cohort of individuals. The maximum prices determined for the S-forwards can be used to price other longevity-linked securities, such as q-forwards. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd model is used to represent the evolution of mortality over time, that combined with the information on the risk margin, enables us to calculate upper limits for the risk-adjusted survival probabilities, the market price of longevity risk and the S-forward prices. Numerical results can be extended for the pricing of other longevity-linked securities.

Floods are a common natural disaster whose severity in terms of duration, water resource volume, peak and accumulated rainfall-based damage are likely to differ significantly for different geographical regions. In this paper, we first propose a novel hourly flood index (SWRI24−hr−S), derived from normalising the existing 24-hourly water resources index (WRI24−hr−S) in literature, to monitor flash flood risks on an hourly scale. The proposed SWRI24−hr−S is adopted to identify a flood situation and derive its characteristics, such as the duration (D), volume (V) and peak (Q). The comprehensive result analysis establishes the practical utility of SWRI24−hr−S in identifying flood situations at seven study sites in Fiji between 2014 and 2018 and deriving their characteristics (i.e., D, V, and Q). Secondly, this study develops a vine copula-probabilistic risk analysis system that models the joint distribution of flood characteristics (i.e., D, V, and Q) to extract their joint exceedance probability for the seven study sites in Fiji, enabling probabilistic flood risk assessment. The vine copula approach, particularly suited to Fiji’s study sites, introduces a novel probabilistic framework for flood risk assessment. The results show moderate differences in the spatial patterns of joint exceedance probability of flood characteristics in different combination scenarios generated by the proposed vine copula approach. In the worst-case scenario, the probability of any flood event occurring where the flood volume, peak and duration are likely to exceed the 95th-quantile value (representing an extreme flood event) is found to be less than 5% for all study sites. The proposed hourly flood index and the vine copula approach can be feasible and cost-effective tools for flood risk monitoring and assessment. The methodologies proposed in this study can be applied to other data-scarce regions where only rainfall data is available, offering crucial information for flood risk monitoring, assessment, and the development of effective mitigation strategies.

Survival models have become popular for credit risk estimation. Most current credit risk survival models use an underlying linear model. This is beneficial in terms of interpretability but is restrictive for real-life applications since it cannot discover hidden nonlinearities and interactions within the data. This study uses discrete time survival models with embedded neural networks as estimators of time to default. This provides flexibility to express nonlinearities and interactions between variables, and hence allows for models with better overall model fit. Additionally, the neural networks are used to estimate Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models so that default risk can be decomposed into time components for loan age (maturity), origination (vintage) and environment (e.g., economic, operational and social effects). These can be built as general models, or as local APC models for specific customer segments. The local APC models reveal special conditions for different customer groups. The corresponding APC identification problem is solved by a combination of regularization and fitting the decomposed environment time risk component to macroeconomic data, since the environmental risk is expected to have a strong relationship with macroeconomic conditions. Our approach is shown to be effective when tested on a large publicly available US mortgage data set. This novel framework can be adapted by practitioners in the financial industry to improve modelling, estimation and assessment of credit risk.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by infection with the 2019 novel coronavirus 2 (2019-nCoV, now referred to as SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 has become a global pandemic since its outbreak at the end of Dec 2019. COVID-19 could lead to severe acute respiratory disease, especially to those who have reduced immunity. Binding of the viral Spike protein (S) to its receptor ACE2 (Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2) on the surface of target cells has been proven to be key for virus entry and infection. Although ACE2 expression in the respiratory system is necessary for pneumonia infection by SARS-CoV-2, the regulation of ACE2 gene expression remains poorly investigated, especially for patients that are in pre-pathological conditions. Here, by analyzing The Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, we investigated the expression regulation of ACE2 in various kinds of primary epithelial cells from the respiratory system after varies of respiratory viruses infection such as influenza A virus (IFV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human rhinovirus (hRV). Our analyses reveal that infection of multiple kinds of respiratory viruses or influenza vaccines greatly increased ACE2 expression, suggesting that respiratory viruses infection could represent a high risk factor for developing COVID-19. We also found that the regulatory effect of influenza A virus on ACE2 expression is associated with activation of the interferon beta-induced pathway and viral RNA-activated host response. Together, our data provide a theoretical framework for clinical classification for SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility and could be used for future prevention and therapy treatment for COVID-19.

Brucellosis is a zoonoses caused by bacteria of the genus Brucella, which causes economic losses in livestock and threatens public health. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the prevalence of Brucella species and risk factors in smallholder dairy cattle in six regions of Tanzania from July 2019 to October 2020. Dairy cattle (n=2048) were sampled from 1371 farms. DNA ex-tracted from blood and vaginal swabs was tested for Brucella using qPCR targeting the IS711 gene and positives were tested for the alkB marker for B. abortus and BMEI1172 marker for B. melitensis. The molecular prevalence was 3.5% (95% CI: 2.8-4.4) with the highest prevalence 8.1% (95%CI: 4.6-13.0) in Njombe region. B. melitensis was the predominant species detected (66.2%). Logistic regression revealed PCR positivity in dairy cattle was higher in the animals with a history of abortion (OR: 3.17, 95%CI: 1.05-9.62) and farms without dogs around (OR: 2.68, 95%CI: 1.12-5.90). Further studies are recommended to understand the source of B. melitensis and the implications to veterinary public health. Livestock keepers should be informed of the risks and biosecurity practices to reduce introduction and control Brucella. Cattle and small ruminant vaccination pro-grams could be implemented to control brucellosis in high-risk populations in the country.

The ISO 2859 and ISO 3951 series provide acceptance sampling procedures for lot inspection, allowing both sample size and acceptance rule to be determined, starting from a specific value either for the consumer or producer risk. However, insufficient resources often make it difficult to implement “ISO sampling plans.” In cases where the sample size is determined by external constraints, the focus shifts from determining sample size to determining consumer and producer risks. Moreover, if the sample size is very low (e.g. one single item), prior information should be included in the statistical analysis. For this reason, it makes sense to work within a Bayesian theoretical framework, such as that described in JCGM 106. Accordingly, the approach from JCGM 106 is adopted and broadened so as to allow application to lot inspection. The discussion is based on a “real-life” example of lot inspection on the basis of a single item. Starting from simple assumptions, expressions for both the prior and posterior distributions are worked out, and it is shown how the concepts from JCGM 106 can be reinterpreted in the context of lot inspection. Conceptual differences regarding the definition of consumer and producer risks in JCGM 106 and in the ISO acceptance sampling standards are elucidated and a numerical example is provided.

In today's highly digitized and globalized financial environment, the need to protect payment systems from risk is more urgent than ever. Artificial intelligence (AI) technology is rapidly becoming a key tool in this space, with machine learning algorithms, big data analytics, and real-time monitoring enabling AI to effectively detect and prevent fraudulent activity, optimize risk management processes, and deliver intelligent services. AI not only improves the security and efficiency of payment systems, but also significantly improves customer satisfaction and loyalty. With the continuous development of AI technology and financial payment technology, the financial payment industry will usher in more innovations and changes in the future, further optimizing the payment process, improving payment efficiency, and ensuring payment security.

Based on a wealth of evidence, aspirin is one of the cornerstones of secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. However, despite several studies showing efficacy also in primary prevention, an unopposed excess risk of bleeding leading to a very thin safety margin is evident in subjects without a clear acute cardiovascular event. Overall, the variability in recommendations from different scientific societies for aspirin use in primary prevention is a classic example of failure of simple risk stratification models based on competing risks (atherothrombosis vs. bleeding), perceived to be opposed but intertwined at the pathophysiological level. Notably, cardiovascular risk is dynamic in nature and cannot be accurately captured by scores, which do not always consider risk enhancers. Furthermore, the widespread use of other potent medications in primary prevention, such as lipid-lowering and anti-hypertensive drugs, might have reduced the benefit of aspirin in recent trials. Some authors, drawing from specific pathophysiological data, have suggested that specific subgroups might benefit more from aspirin. This includes patient with diabetes and those with obesity, as well as considering sex-based differences. Moreover, molecular analysis of platelet reactivity has been proposed. A beneficial effect of aspirin has also been demonstrated for the prevention of cancer, especially colorectal. This review explores evidence and controversies concerning the use of aspirin in primary prevention, considering new perspectives in order to develop a personalized approach.

Attention to the work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) involve also statistical surveys showing an increasing trend in the incidence of WMSDs. Technological development retrieves new tools and methods for the assessment of physical load at work. In addition to the conventional questionnaires and scaling assessment systems, these methods are mostly based on the direct sensing of appropriate parameters, which allows more precise quantification. The aim of this paper is to compare the assessment of ergonomic risk through current legislative regulations. A Captiv wireless sensor system was used at a car headlight quality control assembly workplace for sensing, data acquisition and data processing. During the evaluation of the postures and movements at work, we discovered differences in the applicable standards: Decree 542/2007 Coll. (Slovak legislation), STN EN 1005-4+A1, French standards default in the Captiv system. Standards define the thresholds for hazardous postures with significant differences in several evaluated body segments, which also affects the final evaluation of the measurements. Based on the results of our research, we found that respondents were in an acceptable position for approximately 63% of the total duration of the work activity in terms of the Legislative method, 44% with Captiv and 27% with Standards method.

The pathophysiology of bipolar disorder (BD) remains mostly unclear. Yet, a valid biomarker is necessary to improve early detection of this serious disorder. Patients with manifest BD display reduced volumes of the hippocampal subfields and amygdala nuclei. In this pre-registered analysis, we used structural MRI (N=271, 7 sites), to compare volumes of hippocampus, amygdala, and their subfields/nuclei between help-seeking subjects divided in risk groups for BD as estimated by BPSS-P, BARS and EPIbipolar. We performed between-group comparisons using linear mixed effects models for all three risk assessment tools. Additionally, we aimed to differentiate the risk groups using linear support vector machine. We found no significant volume differences between the risk groups for all limbic structures during the main analysis. However, the SVM could still classify subjects at risk according to BPSS-P criteria with a balanced accuracy of 66.90% (95% CI 59.2– 74.6) for 10-fold cross-validation and 61.9% (95% CI 52.0– 71.9) for leave-one-site-out. Structural altera-tions of hippocampus and amygdala may not be as pronounced in young people at risk, nonetheless, ma-chine learning can predict estimated risk for BD above chance. This suggests that neural changes may not merely be a consequence of BD and may have prognostic clinical value.

This article presents a low-cost insurance system developed for small-hold farms in disaster-prone regions, primarily using free Earth Observation (EO) data and Free Open Source Software (FOSS) – collectively termed sustainable geoinformatics - with a proprietary mobile phone app that enables verification. The study examined 30 farms in Risaralda department, Colombia. A Digital Elevation Model (12.5m pixels) from the ALOS PALSAR satellite sensor was used with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to map the terrain, drainage and geohazards of each farming district. Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used to carry out Time Series Analysis of 15 EO and weather datasets for 1998 to 2020. This analysis enabled the levels of risk from hydrometeorological hazards to be determined for each farm of the study, providing key data for the setting of insurance premiums. A parametric insurance product was piloted using GPS-tagged, time-stamped mobile phone photos to verify crop health. Key features of this insurance system are its low operational cost and rapid damage verification, relative to conventional approaches to farm insurance. It is an affordable form of insurance for small-scale farmers, with the rapid verification and payment of claims. This relatively fast, low-cost and affordable approach to insurance for small-scale farming enhances sustainable development by enabling policy-holder farmers to recover more quickly from disasters.

Pregnancy is a complex biological process which is associated with significant metabolic and hemodynamic changes of the maternal body which allow a normal fetal growth. The inability to adapt to these changes can affect the cardiovascular health. During pregnancy, women may experience mood swings, anxiety and emotional ambivalence. These symptoms can lead to stress and have a negative impact on the mental well-being of expectant mothers. It is crucial to know the aspects that can influence the development of cardiovascular problems among pregnant women in order to manage these cases properly. The current narrative review explores and summarizes the evidence regarding the impact of stress and anxiety on cardiovascular health in pregnant women. Understanding the physiological adaptations that the body undergoes throughout pregnancy is crucial for educating and supporting individuals as well as healthcare professionals. This enables them to recognize any risk factors or pathological conditions that may exacerbate pregnant women's health. In order to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease, a psychological and cardiovascular risk factor screening that is done either before or during pregnancy may be able to identify situations that call for particular medical and/or psychological therapies.

During the postpartum period, psychological disorders may emerge. Aims and objectives: 1 With the current study, we aim to raise awareness among healthcare professionals about postpartum depression (PPD) in women. To reach the aim we will perform the following tasks: (i) identify biological peripartum risk factors and calculate pooled prevalence of PPD for each of them; (ii) explore the strength of relationship between peripartum risk factors and PPD; (iii) rank the predictors by their prevalence and magnitude of association with PPD. The knowledge obtained will support the development and implementation of early diagnostic and preventive strategies. Methods and analysis: we will systematically go through peer-reviewed publications available in the PubMed search engine and online databases: Scopus, Web of Science, EMBASE. The scope of the review will include articles published any time in English, Arabic, or Polish. We will deduplicate literature sources with the Covidence software, evaluate heterogeneity between the study results, and critically assess credibility of selected articles with the Joanna Briggs Institute’s bias evaluation tool. The information to extract is incidence rate, prevalence, and odds ratio between each risk factor and PPD. A comprehensive analysis of the extracted data will allow us to achive the objectives. The study findings will contribute to risk stratification and more effective management of PPD in women.

Human Adenovirus (HAdV) infection occurs in 14-16% of patients in the early months after pediatric hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) and this correlates with a higher risk to develop HAdV disease and overall 6-month mortality. The main risk factors for HAdV infection are T-cell depletion of the graft by ex vivo CD34+ selection or in vivo use of alemtuzumab or anti-thymocyte serum, the development of grade III-IV graft versus host disease (GVHD), the type of donor (unrelated donor, cord blood, haploidentical or HLA mismatched parent) and severe lymphopenia (< 0.2 x 109/L). The prevention of HAdV disease is based on early intervention with antivirals in the asymptomatic patient when the permitted viral load threshold on blood (> 102-3 copies/ml) and/or on the stool (109 copies/g stool) is exceeded. Cidofovir, a monophosphate nucleotide analog of cytosine, is the primary drug for preemptive therapy, used at 5 mg/kg/week for 2 weeks followed by 3-5 mg/kg every 2 weeks. The alternative schedule is 1 mg/kg every other day (three times/week). Enhancing virus-specific T-cell immunity in the first months post-HCT by donor-derived or third-party-derived virus-specific T cells represents an innovative and promising way of intervention applicable both in prevention and therapeutic setting.

Disease related malnutrition (DRM) is prevalent in hospitals and is associated with increased care needs, prolonged hospital stay, delayed rehabilitation and death. Nutrition care process related activities such as screening, assessment and treatment has been advocated by scientific societies and patient organizations but implementation is variable. We analyzed the cross-sectional nutritionDay database for prevalence of nutrition risk factors, care processes and outcome for medical patients. In 59126 medical patients included between 2006-2015 the prevalence of recent weight loss (45%), history of decreased eating (48%) and low actual eating (53%) was more prevalent than low BMI (8%). Each of these risk factors was associated with a large increase in 30 days hospital mortality. Nutrition care processes increases slightly with presence of risk factors but never done in more than 50% of patients. Only a third of patients not eating in hospital receive oral nutritional supplements or artificial nutrition. We suggest that political action should be taken to raise awareness and formal education on all aspects related to DRM for all stakeholders, to create and support responsibilities within hospitals, and to create adequate reimbursement schemes. Collection of routine and benchmarking data is crucial to tackle DRM.

The lack of application of management models that allow strategies to be converted into action and then measure their results in order to apply improvement actions to meet the objectives in small and medium-sized companies (SMEs); they generate problems in their management causing the closure of their operations unexpectedly; To mitigate the risks of closure and bankruptcy with the support of ICT, an alternative was presented considering that risk management is important in decision making at a strategic, tactical and operational level. The objective is to design a prototype to mitigate risks and prevent threats to avoid the closure of this type of company. Through the analysis of related articles, applying sequences of methodological steps; It was determined that the proposed results are aimed at how to identify and mitigate the risks and threats that cause their bankruptcy and closure. Prototypes resulted that allow mitigating risks, preventing threats and minimizing vulnerabilities in the management of SMEs. It was concluded that the proposed prototype to detect threats and vulnerabilities provides an optimal security model for small and medium-sized companies; As a result of the simulations, a security percentage of 77.92% was established, which means that the greater the number of risks and threats, the greater the probability that a small and medium-sized company will close.

This study probes the probabilistic features of major fire hazards in enclosed spaces to establish their importance to the occurrence of fires onboard ro-ro passenger ships and in turn to raise effective operational countermeasures. Distinct from the previous studies, the present research employs Bayesian Network (BN) analysis to determine the probabilities of fire hazards more effectively. The findings of the research include five critical basic events (BE) identified namely, vehicle engine fire (fuel system fault), vehicle electric fire (electrical equipment defect or short circuit), used car electrical fire, reefer units electrical fire (electrical appliances defects or short circuit), and cargo spontaneous combustion. Additionally, the risk of fire for lithium - ion battery powered vehicles is also highlighted in the process of BN analysis, which prompts the authors to propose preventive measures for mitigating the possibility of fire occurrence on this type of electric vehicles. It is hoped that these measures can be essential justifications for establishing relevant rules regarding carrying LIB vehicles in enclosed spaces on international level.

Anemonia viridis is an abundant and widely-distributed temperate sea anemone that can form dense congregations of individuals. Despite the potential severity of its sting, few detailed cases have been reported. We report a case of a severe toxic reaction following an A. viridis sting in a 35-year-old oceanographer. She developed severe pain, itching, redness and burning sensation, which worsened one week after treatment with anti-inflammatories, antihistamines and corticosteroids. Prompted by this event, and due to the insufficient risk prevention, lack of training for marine-environment users and lack of research into sting-specific first-aid protocols, we evaluated the cnidocyst response to five different compounds commonly recommended as rinse solutions in first-aid protocols (seawater, vinegar, ammonia, baking soda and freshwater) by means of the Tentacle Solution Assay. Vinegar and ammonia triggered an immediate and massive cnidocyst discharge after their application and were classified as activator solutions. Baking soda and freshwater were also classified as activator solutions, although with a lower intensity of discharge. Only seawater was classified as a neutral solution and therefore recommended as a rinse solution after A. viridis sting, at least until an inhibitory solution is discovered.

The capital allocation framework proposed by [] presents capital allocation principles as solutions to particular optimization problems and provides a general solution of the quadratic allocation problem via a geometric proof. However, the widely used haircut allocation principle is not reconcilable with that optimization setting. In this paper we provide an alternative proof of the quadratic allocation problem based on the Lagrange multipliers method to reach the general solution. We show that the haircut allocation principle can be accommodated to the optimization setting with the quadratic optimization criterion if one of the original conditions is relaxed. Two examples are provided to illustrate the accommodation of this allocation principle.

Contamination of soil and crops with heavy metals (HMs) poses a significant environmental challenge in the United States. Hence, this study aimed to assess HM contamination levels from sampled Ohio and West Virginia soils using various pollution indicators analyses, including Enrichment Factor (EF), Geo-accumulation index (lgeo), Contamination Factor (CF), and Pollution Load Index (PLI) and identify the Translocation Factor (TF) of HMs in the edible part of the vegetables and further evaluate health risks associated with dietary exposure through estimations of Estimated Daily Intake (EDI), Hazard Index (HI), Target Hazard Quotient (THQ), Cancer Risk (CR) and Target Cancer Risk (TCR) on adults and children. In this study, Fe was the most predominant contaminant, ranging from 28.41 to 67.36 g/kg in the soil. Cancer risk assessment revealed that Ni poses significant risks. Therefore, regular monitoring of metal concentrations in soil and vegetables grown in these regions might mitigate potential health hazards in the future.

The pandemic of obesity worldwide has been recognized as a very important challenge. Within its complexity the identification of higher risk patients becomes essential since it seems unsustainable trying to offer access to treatment to all people with obesity. Several new approaches have recently been presented as important tools for risk stratification. This research applied some of these tools in a cross-sectional study involving adults with obesity classes I, II, III and super obesity. The participants had their cardiometabolic risk profile assessed. The study included adults with obesity, aged 18 to 50 years (n=404) who were evaluated for anthropometric, body composition, hemodynamic, physical fitness and biochemical assessments. These variables were used to identify the prevalence of risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases according to the classes of obesity, by gender and age group. The results showed a high prevalence of risk factors, especially among the upper classes of obesity (BMI &gt; 35 kg/m2) using single parameters as the waist circumference with almost 90% above the cut-off point. But there were also smaller numbers as the Glycated Hemoglobin whose prevalence was around 30%. Indexes like the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) had the highest prevalence, with 100% of the male participants identified with increased risk for cardiovascular diseases.

Purpose: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has recently published quality standards for assessment of fall risk and preventing further falls. According to the standards, multifactorial fall risk assessments should include: identification of falls history; analysis of gait, balance, mobility and muscle strength, among other factors. Despite being based on subjective analysis or simple timing and not being multifactorial, physiotherapists and physicians quite often use these tests as reference scales to differentiate between lower and higher risk of falling. Instrumented TUG has been recently reported to provide important additional information to the overall score. Objective: To explore a case-based approach of fall risk assessment to identify the most relevant and informative risk factors that in combination could better define a person risk profile. Materials and Methods: A multifactorial assessment of fall risk through questionnaires, standard functional tests, tests instrumented with inertial sensors, and force platforms has been studied within a group aged 55-80 years old. Different fall risk factors and fall risk assessment methods were analyzed in a case-based descriptive study. Results & Discussion: Subjects at higher risk of falling were identified based on their detailed profiles. A set of features were obtained from the instrumented standard tests differing significantly between subjects presenting higher or lower fall risk. Therefore, instrumenting conventional tests with wearables containing inertial sensors and force platforms gives more detailed and quantitative insights. This information can be used to better define and tailor fall prevention exercises and to improve the follow-up of the evolution of the subject.

Cervical cancer is the most common female reproductive tract tumor and is currently the only cancer that can be prevented by vaccination. Early detection and treatment of cervical cancer can be achieved through regular screening for human papillomavirus (HPV). Therefore, in this paper, an electrochemical sensor was designed to detect HPV 16 using a dual signal amplification technique. APTES modified glassy carbon electrode to improve stability. Combining gold nanoparticles and chain amplification reactions for signal amplification purposes. The limit of detection (LOD) was 1.731×10-16 mol/L, and the detection range of this electrochemical sensor was increased in comparison to previous research, with a linear response range from 1.0×10-13 mol/L to 1.0×10-5 mol/L (R2 = 0.99232) for the target detector.In addition, the sensor showed equally good recovery in sophisticated human serum samples. It shows that it has good interference resistance and the designed biosensor can be a powerful and reliable tool for clinical disease diagnosis.

During the last few years, several approaches have been proposed to improve early warning systems for reducing rock-fall risk. In this regard, this paper introduces a Deep learning-and (IoT) based Framework for Rock-fall Early Warning, devoted to reducing the rock-fall risk with high accuracy. In this framework, the prediction accuracy was augmented by eliminating the uncertainties and confusion plaguing the prediction model. In order to achieve augmented prediction accuracy, this framework fused the prediction model-based deep learning with a detection model-based Internet of Things. In order to determine the framework’s performance, this study adopted parameters, namely overall prediction performance measures, based on a confusion matrix and the ability to reduce the risk. The result indicates an increase in prediction model accuracy from 86% to 98.8%. In addition, a framework reduced the risk probability from (1.51 ×10-3) to (8.57 ×10-9). Our results indicate the framework’s high prediction accuracy; it also provides a robust decision-making process for delivering early warning and lowering the rock-fall risk probability.

This study investigated the breakdown trend in an automated production with an aim to recommend the application of Reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) for an improved productivity via a new preventive maintenance (PM) program. Individual Section-forming machine (ISM): a glass blowing machine for making glass bottles was used as the case study of an automated production system. The machine parts and the working mechanisms were analysed with a special focus on methods of processes and procedures that will enable the ISM maintenance department run more effective and achieve its essential goal of ensuring effective machine operation and reducing machine downtime. In this work, information is provided on the steps and procedures to identify critical components of the ISM using Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA) as a tool to develop an optimal maintenance program based on the reliability data of the equipment’s functional components. A relationship was established between the failure rate of the machine components and the maintenance costs such that using the recommended PM program, an evidence of improvement in the machine’s availability, safety and cost-effectiveness will result into an increase in the company’s profit margin.

Antibiotic resistance is a pressing global and planetary health challenge. Links between climate change, antibiotic use and the emergence of antibiotic resistance have been well documented, but less attention has been given to the impact(s) of earth systems on specific bacterial livestock diseases at a more granular level. Understanding the precise impacts of climate change on livestock health – and in turn the use of antibiotics to address that ill-health – is important in providing an evidence base to tackle such impacts and to develop practical, implementable and locally acceptable solutions within and beyond current antibiotic stewardship programmes. In this paper, we set out the case for better integration of earth scientists and their specific disciplinary skill set (specifically, problem-solving with incomplete/fragmentary data; the ability to work across four dimensions and at the interface between the present and deep/geological time) into planetary health research. We then discuss a methodology that makes use of risk mapping, a common methodology in earth science but less frequently used in health science, to map disease risk against changing climatic conditions at a granular level. This will enable predictions of future disease risk and risk impacts based on predicted future climate conditions, and thus provide an evidence base for planetary health activists to influence policy and develop mitigations. Our case study – of climate conditions’ impact on livestock health in Karnataka, India – clearly evidences the benefit of integrating earth scientists into planetary health research.

This study aims to contribute to the characterization of Katangese Copperbelt's mining wastes and soils polluted with trace metals, using pollution indices and direct concentration measurements. The study also evaluated the use of these indices in assessing the success of remediation projects. Analytical data from previous studies and samples collected from six types of discharge and one polluted soil were used to address the first objective. Soil and plant samples were collected at Kipushi and Penga Penga for the second objective. The results revealed very high concentrations of As, Cd, Co, Cu, Mn, Pb, and Zn in all mine tailings and polluted soils, compared with local references. The degree of contamination (DC) values (from 72 to 5440) and potential ecological risk (RI) values (from 549 to 162 091) indicate very high-risk situations associated with polluted discharges and soils. Regarding revegetation trials, the results show lower concentrations and RIs in tree rhizospheres compared with unamended areas at both sites. However, trace metal concentrations are higher in tree rhizospheres compared with local references, and RI values are in the considerable risk range for Penga Penga (RI = 533) and very high (&gt;1500) for Kipushi. Bioconcentration factor values are below 1, indicating low accumulation in roots, wood, and leaves, and low risk of contamination of the trophic chain. In this context, it seems that the pollution indices used are unsuitable for assessing the effectiveness of phytotechnology processes based on metal stabilization. Direct plant performance measurements combined with direct measurements of metals in substrates and plants to assess transfer and efficiency are more appropriate.

Aims. In a male Italian cohort (initially aged 40-59, n=1712) followed-up during 61 years and reaching practical extinction, the natural history of major CVD mortality categories including coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and other Heart Diseases of Uncertain Etiology (HDUE, including congestive heart failure) were studied along with their risk factor relationships. Methods and Results. Cox models were run with 12 covariates measured at entry as possible predictors. About 93% of all CVD deaths were covered by the 3 major groups selected here (N=751): 37.4% of them were diagnosed as CHD, 30.6% as stroke and 28.5 % as HDUE. CHD declined in the last 20 years of follow-up, while a sharp increase of HDUE mortality was seen. Baseline mean levels of serum cholesterol were 209.6, 204.2 and 198.0 mg/dl respectively for CHD, stroke and HDUE deaths: the multivariable coefficients of serum cholesterol were positive and significant for CHD (p<0.0001) and stroke (p=0.0203) and not significant for HDUE (p=0.3467). In Fine-Gray models, the algebraic signs of cholesterol coefficients were opposite for CHD versus the other mortality categories (t=3.13). The predictive performances of remaining risk factors were varied whereas that of Cox models was not very good, probably due to the attrition phenomenon and possible competing risks. Conclusion. Large differences in natural history and risk factors were found comparing the 3 CVD conditions, potentially indicating different etiologies and pointing to the need of not mixing them up in a grouped CVD category.

In the European Union, Occupational Safety and Health legislation generally refers to European Regulation (CE) n. 1272/2008 to define and classify carcinogens of concern for occupational risk assessment and exposure assessment. In Europe, the current reference is Directive (UE) 2022/431, regarding carcinogen, mutagen and reprotoxic agents (CMRs) exposure. However, at worldwide level, different classification approaches are used to establish carcinogenicity of substances and it is often difficult to compare the classifications of carcinogenicity (CoCs) proposed by different international bodies. This study aims to investigate a list of carcinogens of concern in occupational settings based on the CLP (Classification Labelling Packaging) CoC, and to create a tool that allows a rapid translation-comparison of some international CoCs with the reference one. CoCs proposed by various sources were consulted and used to apply a translation method, to favor an alignment of different CoCs according to a reference. Results outlined that considering diverse sources, CoCs can result in different classifications of the same chemicals. Overall, this may have implications for the hazard assessment process, which is the base of risk assessment. The proposed tool is expected to help risk assessors in the occupational field when it is needed to have a comparison with different CoC systems.

Modelling and presenting mathematical relationships for human behaviour is one of the most complex issues that researchers have always dealt with. In this article, a bottom-up framework for calculating agricultural needs is presented using the socioeconomic characteristics of farmers (such as education level, age, and dependence on income on agriculture) and how their lands are located concerning each other (interactions between neighbours). The objective function of this framework is to maximize the profit of individual farmers based on the amount of water received. Two scenarios, ABM1 (not considering neighbourhood effects) and ABM2 (all cases of farmers' placement and feeling neighbourhood effects), were investigated. In the first scenario (ABM1), there was a noteworthy reduction in water deficit volumes by approximately 35%, accompanied by a 20% increment in farmers' profits. Interestingly, higher risk-taking tendencies correlated with reduced profit margins. The second scenario (ABM2) underscored the significant role of neighborhood dynamics in cultivating diverse behavioral patterns among farmers, subsequently affecting their profitability. A granular examination revealed that farmers with a higher propensity for risk-taking generally accrued lower profits. Additionally, the study facilitated the calculation of total annual profits and average water consumption for each farmer, offering valuable insights for optimizing water resource management and allocation strategies. These findings are instrumental for planners and water resource managers aiming to promote sustainable agricultural practices and efficient water use.

Prediction of the likely evolution in the traffic scenes is a challenging task because of high uncertainty of sensing technology and dynamic environment. It leads to failure of planning for intelligent agents like autonomous vehicles. In this paper, we propose a fluid-based physical model to present the influence of surrounding object's motion on driving safety. In our pipeline, the input sensor could be LiDAR, camera, or multi-modal data. We use a Kalman filter to estimate the state space of each detected object, and adopt the properties of stable fluid to build a riskmap based on the density field. The noisy state space are then modeled as the boundary conditions in the simulation of advection and diffusion process. We test our approach on the public KITTI dataset and find this model could handle the short-term prediction in case of misdetection and tracking failure caused by object occlusion, which shows promising in collision risk assessment on road scenes.